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By Š. Šachlová, T. Lokajícek, M. Petružálek, T. Svitek, A. Štastná

During the past 20 years, alkali silicate reaction (ASR) as a cause of concrete deterioration has been studied by a wide range of experimental methods such as microstructural and macrostructural analysis, bulk chemical analysis, X-ray and neutron diffraction analysis, etc. All of these data are compared with expansion values of mortar bars (following ASTM standard C 1260). Recent studies indicate the useful application of non-destructive methods with the aim of better reflecting mechanical properties and the degree of deterioration of real concrete. Ultrasonic testing methods (including ultrasonic pulse velocity UPV) are widely used to determine material mechanical properties and the changes induced by a variety of mechanical or chemical processes. However, only a few laboratory studies of ASR focused on ultrasonic testing of mortar bars. Due to this fact, a heating chamber was designed and constructed to enable ultrasonic sounding of mortar bar specimens while stored in accelerating solution. Regular ultrasonic sounding of mortar bars reveals significant dependence of ultrasonic data such as longitudinal P-wave velocity, signal energy, signal amplitude and signal frequency on mortar bar storage time. Ultrasonic data were subjected to time domain as well as frequency domain analysis. Different storage conditions were used to determine the effect of ASR on ultrasonic parameters. Mortar bars, prepared in the same manner with one type of aggregate, were stored in cold or warm water or in an accelerating warm medium. Ultrasonic data accurately reflects the differences in hardening and deterioration of tested mortar bars due to different storage conditions. Ultrasonic results showed very good correlation with the results of ASTM standard expansion tests and much higher sensitivity to ASR-induced concrete deterioration. Expansion tests showed 1% measured length differences in comparison with up to 80% resolution of ultrasonic data. The ultrasonic testing proved to be a suitable laboratory method for investigating ASR-related processes and could lead to an improvement of standard testing procedures.

Jan 1, 2015

By E. R. Hughes

Introduction Situated 182 miles east of Vancouver, on the Kettle Valley branch of the Canadian Pacific railway, the Princeton coal field is readily accessible to the Coast markets. The area covers approximately forty square miles and present indications are that the deposits should contain at least 300,000,000 tons of coal. Comparatively little development has yet taken place in this coal field. Since the commencement of recorded output, the collieries operating in this area have produced 1,640,518 tons of coal. The coal field proper includes only the Tertiary deposits adjacent to the town of Princeton and does not include the Coalmont or Nicola deposits. Production has never been on a large scale. The largest annual output from any property was 81, 780 long tons mined at the Granby colliery in 1940. Coal output was first recorded in 1909 and since that time fifteen properties are reported to have either mined coal or to have done prospecting or development work; of these, only two are presently active. However, none of the properties now inactive were closed because their coal resources were exhausted. The accompanying key map shows the extent of the Princeton coal field, and the location of the coal mines and prospects in this field General Geology The Princeton field is underlain by rocks of Oligocene age and is one of the series of more or less isolated Tertiary lake basins in which coal, or lignite, has been found in the interior of British Columbia. Resting on the Nicola group rocks of Triassic age, the Princeton sedimentaries consist of sandstones, conglomerates, shales, bentonite, bentonitic clays, and several seams of coal. Tertiary volcanics occur both above and below the stratified rocks and in places they have been thrust through the overlying measures. In some areas, the coal has been burned to a red ash as the result of vulcanism, while in other parts some of the moisture has been driven from the coal, thus improving the grade. The field can best be described by dividing it into two areas: the Southern area, lying to the south of the town of Princeton, where most of the mining has been done; and the Northern area, to the north of Princeton, where very little development has taken place.

Jan 1, 1947

By L. C. Johnston, J. N. Gills

This paper reviews the basic reactions of the blast furnace and the open hearth furnace, and then discusses the quarrying and sizing requirements of the limestone feed for each. Particular emphasis is placed on the lime-stone at Irish Cove, now being mined under an agreement between Scotia Limestone Limited and Dosco Steel Limited. The drilling and blasting operations are described, along with loading and haulage, plant flow, water supply, power supply and transportation facilities.

Jan 1, 1967

By M. Courtin, D. Berthelot, M. Haggis, D. McClarty, R. Payne

Over forty years of uranium mining in the Elliot Lake region of Ontario (1956–1996) has resulted in the production of over 300 million pounds of uranium. With the completion of mining activity, Rio Algom Limited and Denison Mines Limited are utilizing progressive environmental technologies and management systems to reduce and manage the environmental risks associated with the 150 million tonnes of potentially acid-generating tailings in nine regional waste management areas. Water covers designed to reduce oxygen entry and, thereby, significantly inhibit acid generation, have been applied at six of the sites with the Quirke site serving as a demonstration site for the Mine Environmental Neutral Drainage program. All five of Rio Algom Limited’s effluent treatment plants are monitored and controlled from a central control station utilizing a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system based on “Fix Dmacs” technology. Scheduling, auditing and reporting of plant operating and environmental monitoring programs for the entire watershed are controlled utilizing the Regional Environmental Information Management System (REIMS). Proper application of these technologies and management systems facilitates delivery of cost-effective environmental monitoring, care and maintenance programs at these sites and provides tools to demonstrate compliance with all environmental performance criteria.

Jan 1, 1999

By Matt Manson

Diamonds in Canada: Recent Advances in Exploration Methodology and Advanced Stage Assessment 1. Exploration Methodologies ? Prospectivity Mapping ? Surficial Geochemistry ? Geophysics 2. Advanced Stage Assessment ? Petrology and Diamond Paragenesis ? Micro/Macro ratios and Macro grades ? Value Sampling and Modeling

Apr 1, 2005

By Harry Wilton-Clark

Introduction Coal cleaning may be taken as meaning the separation of coal-as-mined into two or more fractions. Coal cleaning includes coal washing, together with any other means used in the ultimate preparation of coal prior to shipment (as coal) . The method of coal cleaning devised for any given mine must be one which is based entirely on the economic results obtainable. The installation of a high-cost and complex washing plant, designed to produce a low-ash dean coal, at the highest possible recovery, may be unsound practice. A crude 'roughing' washer may be the best result of sound engineering and operating consideration, and in some cases coal cleaning should be confined entirely to preparation at the face. Consideration of complete costs, to the point where the coal is actually sold, may show that certain seams are workable or not workable. Of the seams found workable, extraction of the whole or parts of the seam may be decided on. The portion to be extracted may contain rock or bone partings, which must be removed. It may be good practice to mine the extra portion and remove the objectionable materials by surface washing; or it may be that such materials should be removed underground, even at an increased mining cost. For instance, in some of the steeply pitching seams of the Alberta Crow's Nest Pass district, the removal of bone and rock at the face may be almost impossible under the usual 'up the pitch' or 'angle' mining methods, but possible by mining across the pitch so that the material to be rejected can be removed and gobbed. Again, if a complete seam is being extracted, investigation may show marked differences between top coal and bench coal, and if sufficient mine cars are being loaded from a chute at one time, the fact that such a place is working top or bench coal at the time may be reflected by peaks in ash content or size proportions at the ripple. It may be very effective coal preparation to smooth out such peaks.

Jan 1, 1934

By B. Grinbaum, A. Mazuelos, F. Carranza, N. Iglesias, M. Avila, J. L. Lozano, G. Perez, R. Romero, M. \/aliente

Following a failure of a tailings pond darn at a mine in Andalusia, Spain, a huge effluent stream, that contained about 1 g/1 Zn and significant amounts of ferrous, ferric, calcium, copper, aluminium and manganese cations has to be treated, to prevent pollution of a nature reserve. EGMASA, as the regional government environmental agency, suggested to improve the current depuration process by recovery of the Zn from the effluent. A solvent extraction (SX) followed by electrowinning (EW) was proposed and developed to remove zinc.. A pre-treatment stage consisting in bio-oxidation of ferrous iron by using a bacterial process followed by an alkaline precipitation was employed because iron in the effluent is incompatible with both the SX and the EW processes. The SX process was developed successfully at the laboratory scale and verified in a pilot plant on-site, using two Bateman Pulsed Columns for extraction and stripping of zinc. The results were satisfactory obtaining a recovery of 90% of Zn. The process was suitable for industrial application.

Jan 1, 2008

By R. S. Adhikari

The changes in defects patterns or in element condition index during visual inspection of bridges are primary concerns for inspectors. This paper presents a new approach for change detection of defects in bridges by identifying changes in texture patterns through spectral analysis of digital images. The commonly used method for change detection is image differentiation. This subtraction method requires images to be of same size, scale, and rotation. However, no two images are same in real practices. Thus, image registration is required to align images and to produce change maps. This process is tedious and it is difficult often to achieve a good registered image. But, the change detection task can be readily modeled in frequency domain for texture patterns discrimination and also for quantifying their properties. This paper proposes a novel approach for change detection by transforming digital images into Fourier spectrum. In new coordinate system, 1-D signature functions can be drawn which facilitates easy comparison of textures in different directions. The proposed methodology provides useful tools for comparison of inspection history graphically and quantitatively. In practice, expensive sensors are used to detect subtle change in defect patterns. The proposed method can be used to detect any subtle change in defect patterns using digital images at much lower cost.

Aug 1, 2013

1. Scientific prospecting has had a profound and some-what unexpected effect on the world's supply of raw materials over the past twenty years. Where shortages were recently anticipated, abundance now prevails. It seems probable that, for the foreseeable future, adequate metallic resources will be found at costs well within the world's economic means. 2. The amount of research devoted to scientific prospecting has been extremely small in relation to the possible importance of the problem and to what could be done. It has been dominated by the thought of a dozen brilliant men, and true research expenditures have not amounted to more than a few million dollars. 3. An undue proportion of the expenditures have been for so-called geological research -mostly of a petrologial character. The results have essentially been of historic interest only. However, there has been some in-crease in genetic understanding, and this is of great importance for future resources. 4. Basic advances in mineral exploration have been made in detection techniques, generally called geophysics and geochemistry.

Jan 1, 1964

By W. B. Gallup

"The Athabasca Bituminous Sands have been subject to sporadic investigations since the beginning of the century. It is probable, however, that much of what has been learned and achieved concerning the deposit has been accomplished in the last few years.Current exploratory techniques, generally speaking, involve a moderate amount of coring. Electrologs and often radioactive logs are run on most holes and certain types of these archieved excellent qualitative analysis when backed up by some core analysis for calibration. Exploration - is moving back from the river and consequently a permanent network of access roads has been developed within the last few years. Most of the operations take place in the winter time. There are about 90 permit holders at the present time.Some exploratory techniques are set up to go into recovery experiments where rich tar beds are found. It is probable that in the final analysis there will be several successful methods of extraction and that both mining and various in situ techniques will be applicable depending upon the problem locally."

Jan 1, 1960

By Gonzalo Bernstein, David G. Meadows, German Naranjo, Edgardo Tapia

"During the last decade Antofagasta Minerals’ Los Pelambres Mine has dramatically increased its ore throughput following the fast initial phase ramp up through a series of planned incremental expansions. The original 85,000 mtpd, two SAG line plant was commissioned in 1999 and rapidly exceeded nameplate tonnage in only a few months. Following this, the inclusion of a pebble crushing circuit resulted in throughputs in excess of 114,000 mtpd and a recent, final third line SAG and ball mill addition have taken the plant to over 175,000 mtpd even with increasing ore hardness and changing ore feed characteristics. The progressive changes are described in this paper together with how the technical challenges have been met.INTRODUCTIONMinera Los Pelambres is a world class copper-molybdenum operation located in the Salamanca area in Chile, in region four, approximately 500 km north east of Santiago, the capital of Chile. In the late 1990s Antofagasta Minerals developed the Minera Los Pelambres project in Chile at an investment cost of approximately $1.3 billion USDs. The project construction was successfully led and completed by Bechtel Corporation in 1999 and within a matter of months the plant was already exceeding the nameplate capacity of 85,000 mtpd. In 2001 a pebble crushing circuit was added to raise the capacity to 114,000 mtpd. In the early part of 2003-2004, it was recognized that the hardness profile was changing with depth and that in order to maintain the plant capacity additional power would be needed in the SAG mills together with upgrading of the primary crusher. In conjunction with these changes a fifth ball mill and a second primary crusher station would also need to be installed. A further detailed engineering study and evaluation was initiated by Minera Los Pelambres. This was lead by Bechtel Corporation with major design contributions from FLSmidth and Siemens in order to establish the re-powering requirements for the SAG mills. These re-powering changes together with the inclusion of a pebble crushing circuit took the plant to up to 125,000 mtpd even with harder more competent ores. Finally in the last two years an additional grinding line has been added to take the capacity to consistently over 175,000 mtpd. The third line was installed in a record time of 256 days. A schematic of the current comminution circuit, discussed in this paper, is shown in Figure 2."

Jan 1, 2012

By E. Goodwin

The mechanics of formation of wear-metal suspensions in lubricants is discussed, along with the relationship of the concentration of the metals and other particles to the wear of lubricated machinery parts. The importance of particle and suspension analysis of used lubricants in a preventative maintenance program is stressed, in particular with regard to mobile equipment in a mining operation.

Jan 1, 1978

By F. Chachula, A. Molinaro

"Sulphide mineral flotation operations continuously strive for a balance between mineralogy, mineral liberation, circuit conditions and reagent solutions to maximize the production rate and recovery of payable metals. The Taseko Gibraltar copper – molybdenum mill operations underwent an extensive project focusing on the fundamentals to identify the effects of process conditions and mineral liberation to improve the bulk circuit copper – molybdenum recovery efficiencies in the bulk flotation circuits. This discussion will provide process data that demonstrates; 1) fundamental relationship between mineral liberation to recovery and grade, 2) flotation circuit condition testing and optimization, 3) reagent combinations resulting in efficient/economical mineral recovery, and 4) the development of a xanthate free reagent solution. The data presented and discussed will also touch on flotation parameters including pH, retention time, kinetics and the effect on bulk circuit recovery performance.INTRODUCTION Taseko's is the owner (75%) and operator of the Gibraltar copper-molybdenum mine, located in south-central British Columbia, the second largest open pit copper mine in Canada and the largest employer in the Cariboo region. Taseko restarted Gibraltar in 2004. From 2006 until 2012, the company invested ~$700 million to expand and modernize the operation which was originally scheduled for demolition when the company acquired it in 1999. In the spring of 2011, construction commenced for Gibraltar Development Plan 3 (GDP3). GDP3 included the construction of a standalone 30,000 ton per day concentrator, built adjacent to the existing 55,000 ton per day facility. The new design capacity of Gibraltar was designed to be 85,000 tons per day. An integral part of the project was a new molybdenum recovery facility. In addition to the new concentrator, the mining fleet was upgraded with a new mining shovel, production drill and ten haul trucks (Taseko, May 2015). In May of 2015, the Company completed an updated mine plan for Gibraltar featuring a 50% decrease in strip ratio. This new mine plan was a result of a detailed, six-month engineering study and forms the basis of an updated NI 43-101 compliant reserve (Taseko Announces Improved Economics At Its Gibraltar Copper Mine, 2015). The new mine plan took into account lower milling costs as a result of the modernized processing facilities (Taseko, May 2015)."

Jan 1, 2018

By M. E. D. Raymont

"During the history of the sulphur industry there have been three distinct phases of production. Factors controlling supplies during these periods have shifted from demand for sulphur to demand for energy and a cleaner environment. The pattern of brimstone production is t raced through these phases and includes estimates of future supply; these indicate an involuntary excess production of some 20 million plus tons per year by 1980 unless some large-scale new uses are found. Traditional uses for sulphur, including fertilizer, chemicals, fibers, etc., are generally expanding slowly; how• ever, supply in ""by-product"" form alone will soon outstrip demand. The predicted oversupply situation can be corrected by the development of novel potential markets. Promising areas include construction materials, insulation and plastics, among others."

Jan 1, 1972

By Jun Xiao, Xiaodong Li, Chunming He, Daixiong Chen

"Benzohydroxamic acid with double dentate can react with copper to form cyclic hydroxyl oxime acid copper chelate, indicating a good selectivity for copper oxide minerals flotation, especially for malachite. The flotation results of the pure malachite mineral show a strong synergistic collecting effect between hydroximic acid and xanthate at a ratio of 3.5:1, achieving a malachite recovery of 95.5% when certain sodium sulphide is used as a sulphidizing agent in the optimal pH range. Thanks to the synergistic collecting effect, the flotation recovery of malachite of a real refractory ore flotation ,can reach over 92% under the optimum condition, a 12% higher than the recovery achieved with the conventional collectors. In industrial application, the flotation of the copper oxide minerals is improved , leading to a high efficiency utilization of copper oxide resources.INTRODUCTIONBeneficiation of copper oxide ore is one of the recognized challenges in mineral processing industry. Copper oxide ore is a vital component of copper resource in the world, which has abundant reserves. Majority of sulphide deposits has oxidized zone on the top, and some deposits are oxidized to become the large and medium-sized oxide deposits (Willam & Chavez, 2001). Most copper oxide ores have problems in processing such as high slime consumption, poor floatability, complex ore property and low flotation recovery, so it is of great significance in beneficiation of copper oxide ores to develop an efficient collector, especially for malachite (Fu & Gu, 1997; Wen, 2010; Riet, Kier & Elford, 1980). At present, sulphidization-xanthate flotation is the most important method for treating copper oxide ore. In recent years, due to the decreasing ore grade, the utilization of refractory copper oxide ore draws more and more attention (Zhou, 2003), except for sulphidization-xanthate method, chelating flotation method (Lu, 2009), chemical beneficiation method (Lenormed, Salman & Yoon, 1979), microwave radiation flotation method, hydrothermal sulphidization-flotation method (Mao, Wen & Fang, 2014) and ammonia leaching of sulphide precipitation-flotation method (Lekang, Stevik & Bomo, 2003) have occurred."

Jan 1, 2016

By L. Vinnett, I. Panire, J. Yianatos, F. Ruiz

"The effect of operating variables on the flotation performance at steady-state has been extensively used for modelling and simulation of separation processes. However, the dynamic characterization of key variables such as gas dispersion (Sauter mean diameter of bubbles, D32, and bubble surface area flux, SB) and froth discharge rate is rather scarce. In this paper, an experimental design allowed identifying the dynamic response of the flotation process in a laboratory scale flotation cell, using a two-phase system, airwater. The installation included automatic control for the superficial gas rate, JG, and the pulp level. Gas dispersion was evaluated in terms of the Sauter mean diameter of a bubble population and the bubble surface area flux, SB = 6·JG/D32. The D32 was measured using the McGill Bubble Size Analyzer (MBSA) along with a semiautomated algorithm. In addition, the froth discharge velocity was measured in real-time using a Visiofroth system. The control variables were the superficial gas rate and the frother concentration (Teefroth). The dynamic characterization of the flotation process is useful to design algorithms that allow the direct or indirect control of metallurgical variables such as flotation rate, concentrate grade and mineral recovery.INTRODUCTIONGas dispersion indicates the way the gas entering a flotation machine is dispersed throughout the volume of the equipment (Schwarz & Alexander, 2006). The gas dispersion is typically characterized in terms of the bubble size (dB), gas holdup (eG), superficial gas rate (JG), and bubble surface area flux (SB =6·JG/dB) (Finch et al., 2000). All these variables have significant impact on the metallurgical performance of flotation machines. For example, Perez-Garibay et al. (2014) investigated the effect of the particle size, bubble size distribution, superficial gas rate and collector dosage on the flotation performance, for the separation of a sphalerite mineral. The authors observed that recovery increased with the superficial gas rate ranging from JG = 0.04 to JG = 0.08 cm/s and also a maximum recovery was obtained for bubble size close to 300 µm. Gorain et al. (1998) reported a strong correlation between the flotation rate constant and the bubble surface area flux in a zinc cleaner circuit. Both variables were directly proportional at three froth depths in the range of hF =7 - 45 cm. Dobby & Finch (1986) incorporated the effect of the superficial gas rate and the bubble size on the flotation efficiency by means of a kinetic model for the rate constants. Yianatos & Contreras (2010) developed a model to estimate the carrying capacity in large flotation cells by including the bubble surface area flux."

Jan 1, 2016

By Tracey Bodnarchuk, Philipp Mirzoev

Sulfate balance control is a common problem for zinc plants. Roast-leach-electrowin plants are mostly concerned with the over-generation of sulfates while for the HudBay direct leach plant both extremes are possible including potential necessity to buy sulfuric acid to replenish a sulfate-depleted circuit, which makes the problem doubly important. Quantitative methods were applied at the HudBay plant to analyze sulfate generation/depletion based on a local sulfur balance and sulfate extraction calculation in the leach circuit, using a Pb-tie method. Main factors were established influencing sulfate generation/depletion, including the critical role of Pb and pyrite. Regression analysis proved to be effective and allowed the quantitative prediction of Pb concentrations necessary to reach the equilibrium for the sulfate balance. This in turn provided a firm basis for a sulfate-control strategy realized through concentrate blend correction, which allowed the plant to fine-tune sulfate generation/depletion effectively reducing economic consequences of excessive/deficient sulfate generation.

Jan 1, 2015

By Y. F. Jiang, K. Fang, Q. Q. Jiang, Q. Wu

Inter formational sliding of bedding planes between two different rock types in Badong formation is an important reason that leads to the instability and fracture of rock mass in this stratum. There are no specific research achievements on bedding planes between two different rock types in Badong formation. In order to study the shear mechanical properties of bedding planes between two different rock types. This paper using the software of particle flow code (PFC) and JRC model to establish several typical structures of different roughness coefficient of surface morphology based on the laboratory tests on silty mudstone and marlite in Badong formation. A great deal of numerical shear tests were carried out by ball production, radius expansion and servo infliction. The research results are as follows: First, shear strength of Badong formation is found to vary between that of silty mudstone and marlite isotropic planes by analyzing shear strength of the homogenous bedding planes and inhomogeneous rock types, we can find that the shearing strength in Badong formation is between silty mudstone and marlite isotropic planes and which is closer to the shearing strength of silty mudstone isotropic planes. Second, the basical friction angle of bedding planes between two different rock types in Badong formation is between silty mudstone and marlite isotropic planes and which is closer to the basical friction angle of silty mudstone between isotropic planes. Third, based on the experimental results, an expression is obtained to describe the relationship of the ratio of shearing strength between bedding planes of two different rock types and isotropic planes in soft rock, the rock combination coefficient, and the roughness coefficient. This study has important significance for further research on the shear mechanical properties of bedding planes between two different rock types.

Jan 1, 2015

By P. K. Kaiser, C. D. Martin, F. Amann

"This article focuses on the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of homogeneous and heterogeneous rocks. Critical factors impacting the UCS of rocks are reviewed and then separate assessments of UCS data from homogeneous and heterogeneous rocks are presented. The variability (coefficient of variation) of UCS test results for homogeneous rocks is found to be generally <25% while for heterogeneous rocks the variability is >35%. Failure mode variation is found to be the cause of the variability of UCS test results in heterogeneous rocks. Empirical engineering design methods that use UCS as an input parameter are discussed and suggestions are provided for selecting appropriate UCS values.INTRODUCTIONThe UCS is one of the most commonly used rock engineering parameters whether for rock mass classification or for strength determination. The mean UCS and its variability are often assumed to represent a reliable rock material property. For the reasons discussed in this article, UCS is rarely representative of the intact rock UCS. The UCS test simply records the collapse load during uniaxial loading of a cylindrical specimen. As suggested by many, the UCS is an index rather than a unique engineering parameter. The UCS is thus a proxy for rock strength which depends on the loading rate (e.g., Bieniawski 1967), specimen geometry (e.g., Hudson et al., 1971), specimen size (e.g., Bieniawski 1968), and many other factors. Furthermore, the UCS is not the same as the Hoek-Brown strength criterion parameter sci.There are differences in opinion on what is commonly considered to be ‘intact rock’. When sampling ‘intact’ pieces of core from drillholes crossing blocks of rock bound by block forming discontinuities, samples will be ‘intact’ but some samples will be veined, others will be damaged, and others will be neither. According to Hoek (1983), intact rock pieces are “the unfractured blocks occurring between structural discontinuities in a typical rock mass” and the sci parameter for intact rock is determined using the fitting procedure proposed by Hoek and Brown (1997) based on the data requirements outlined by Hoek (1983). Studies (e.g., Bewick and Kaiser 2014; Kaiser and Kim 2014) have shown that independently determined UCS and sci values for the same rock type are not equivalent. Thus, UCS data cannot be used as a replacement for sci."

Jan 1, 2015

By B. Arlyuk

On the basis of research of relations among the market participants the analytical model has been created which connects the price of industrial good at stock exchange with volume of sales and the stock of the sellers and buyers, Also a model was developed for assessment of these parameters of the market status by the actually fixed stock exchange and general market indicators. The composition of these models made it possible to create reliable system of short-term price forecasting for commodities or base metals up to one quarter ahead. Imperfectability of creation a model for reliable price forecasting by purely statistic methods (by the "black box" principle) was shown. A model of price behavior qualitative forecasting till one quarter ahead has been developed, which determines the probability of reaching in future of the given level as well as of the price maximums and minimums, Optimal values of threshold probability were determined for forecasting the future price maximums and minimums securing the maximum profit from the forecasting system application for commercial activity. The developed system of forecasting was identified for primary aluminium at the period of 1990-2003. The system was tested daily during 20 months period for speculations on 3M primary aluminium forwards at London Metal Exchange with high commercial result.

Jan 1, 2004