Short-term price forecasting for primary aluminium

On the basis of research of relations among the market participants the analytical model has been created which connects the price of industrial good at stock exchange with volume of sales and the stock of the sellers and buyers, Also a model was developed for assessment of these parameters of the market status by the actually fixed stock exchange and general market indicators. The composition of these models made it possible to create reliable system of short-term price forecasting for commodities or base metals up to one quarter ahead. Imperfectability of creation a model for reliable price forecasting by purely statistic methods (by the "black box" principle) was shown. A model of price behavior qualitative forecasting till one quarter ahead has been developed, which determines the probability of reaching in future of the given level as well as of the price maximums and minimums, Optimal values of threshold probability were determined for forecasting the future price maximums and minimums securing the maximum profit from the forecasting system application for commercial activity. The developed system of forecasting was identified for primary aluminium at the period of 1990-2003. The system was tested daily during 20 months period for speculations on 3M primary aluminium forwards at London Metal Exchange with high commercial result.