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By Jan H. Hommen

TRENDS IN MINE FINANCE Reviewing historical trends may help in dealing with future funding strategies. The first trend is the increase in the use of debt to fund corporate America. Surprisingly, when comparing that with other corporates in the global marketplace, the U.S. does not look too poorly. Japanese, in particular, but also German companies, are much more leveraged than their U.S. counterparts. Note that in Japan and Germany the government and the consumer have shown substantial restraints when it comes to credit. Not so in the U.S. where the savings rate (4%) is much lower than that in Japan (20%) and in Germany (14%). As a result, the cost of leverage is substantially lower in Japan and in Germany than in the U.S. Lower debt costs in these countries allows one to obtain more of it for the same price. The close relationships between financial institutions, corporations and governments in Japan and Germany also make the risk of leverage more bearable and understandable. Also note that interest rate volatility in these countries is more subdued. The investor base in common stock is also changing. Private pension funds have been net sellers of equities during the last few years while public pension funds have been net buyers. Individuals are basically out of the market. It is estimated that over $330 billion of equity was retired in the U.S. through 1986-1988. The reasons are well known: restructurings, buy-backs, takeovers, mergers, and buy-outs. This de-equitization is likely to continue as the cost of equity capital is higher than the cost of debt capital, even on a before-tax basis. Because there has been no market for equity since October 19, 1987, junk bonds have replaced equity capital in the corporate finance structure. The non-investor-grade borrower has access to the public markets through high-yielding debt securities that often look like senior equity. Deregulation has also provided 24-hour markets; securitization can now liquify assets that before were rusting on balance sheets; information processing and communication tools give facts that are instantaneously available, creating the need for products to cover risk and exposures unknown before the start of the information and technology explosion. Thus we now have swaps, options, futures, options on futures, caps, as well as program trading, portfolio insurance, index funds, etc. Globalization will be unstoppable. Today's environment demands it. Corporations are now global competitors, even though they may have never shipped a product off-shore. Boundaries are disappearing and impediments have been removed. Stocks can be issued in a global offering with distribution in all major financial centers of the world. The high leverage of Japanese companies has made common stocks very scarce, which with the high savings rate, makes equity capital inexpensive in Japan. If markets were perfect everyone would issue stock in Tokyo and buy it back in New York. This would certainly stop the bleeding on the balance of payments. With the deficit balance of payments in America, it is no surprise that the cost of money is expensive here. The risk-return relationship on U.S. equity is not favorable enough to appeal to Japanese equity investors. The Tokyo-market, helped by a stronger yen, surpassed New York as the most important equity market in the world. The question is, will the Tokyo market hold up when Japanese domestic consumption increases at the expense of savings? In the U.S. debt markets, the plain vanilla debenture is making a comeback after a period of absence. Commercial paper has replaced short term bank borrowings for working capital funding by larger corporations. The banks have made an interesting comeback with loan sale programs that will continue to attract borrowers. There will be a continuing

Jan 1, 1990

After months of negotiations, the U. S. has agreed to buy between 6000 and 7000 long tons of Bolivian tin now stockpiled at Peruvian and Chilean ports, at $1.175 per lb, f.o.b. South American Ports. Harry A. McDonald of the Reconstruction Finance Corp. signed the contract with Victor Andrade, Bolivian ambassador. The Mercantile Metals and Ore Corp., of New York City, acted as the agent of Bolivia's Banco Minero in negotiating the deal. The contract is a short term one. Throughout the talks, the U. S. refused to make a long term agreement because of the possibility that Bolivia will soon nationalize its mines. The Bolivians desired to sell the U. S. 18,000 tons during a one-year pact. The price agreed upon is roughly the same as with Malayan producers. In the meantime, American Smelting & Refining Co., signed over control of its operations to the Bolivian Government. The formal act of leasing the mines to the Bolivian Government follows the announcement last July by the company that it was closing operations because of high costs. Contract terms were not disclosed.

Jan 1, 1952

U.S. Signs Pact With Miami Copper Miami Copper Co., of Arizona has agreed to mine lowgrade copper ores in an extension of its Globe-Miami mining district operations at a guaranteed price of 27.35[] per lb, under a contract signed with defense Materials Procurement Agency. Terms of the contract call for delivery of 230 million lb of refined copper between 1955 and 1962. DMPA said highgrade ore in the de posit will soon be exhausted and it is considered advisable to have Miami continue the operation. The Government has an option to buy 120 million lb of refined copper from present production at market prices. Miami will develop the new ore- body at its own expense-estimated at $3 million. If losses under the new contract reach a specified point, Miami may cancel the agreement. The company plans to use the block caving method in the underground operation.

Jan 4, 1953

By Blandford C. Burgess

Mica is an orchid among minerals. It is formed in pegmatites, one of the most bizarre of igneous formations, and is exceeded by few other minerals in the perfection it may attain as to size, color, and cleavage. First used for window glazing, as an ornament and article of trade, it has become one of the most essential insulators of electricity, heat, and shock. Most internal combustion engines use mica condensers or capacitors and such machines of war as planes, tanks, and submarines are immobile without it. The original manuscript of this guide was written in April 1943 at the peak of war emergency. It was not used be- cause shortly thereafter a decision was made to buy on a one price basis eliminating differentials for both quality and size. This is now presented with the thought that from the standpoint of preparedness we can only consider an- other war imminent and every effort should he made to set up in usable form the experience gained during the Second World War. Colonial Mica Corp. was set up by Metals Reserve Co. as a wholly owned government agency to encourage production of domestic mica and to purchase it. It soon became the exclusive buying agency for such mica. The writer as Southern Manager called on all the private agencies buying mica to assist in formulating buying policies, methods, and prices.

Jan 1, 1949

The House Committee of the Engineering Societies Building has lent to he members of the three welfare committees a room on the ground floor of the building where they can carry on some of their war activities. Two sewing machines and two knitting machines are installed there and ladies are invited to sew for the Foreign War Relief Committee and knit for the Emergency Committee, which is working for the 27th Engineers, a special mining regiment. The Emergency Committee, Mrs. H. Norman Spicer, Chairman, reports the formation of a committed of 21 members. The organization meeting was held March 7, and plans were made for future activities as follows: A letter was read from Mr. Ingalls asking for 72 sweaters, 72 helmets, 66 pairs of wristlets as well as 772 pairs of socks, 272 being for immediate delivery. To meet this request it was decided to secure the helmets and wristlets from the Navy League, and to undertake the making of the sweaters and socks ourselves. Accordingly Mrs. H. N. Spicer and Mrs. J. H. Devereux were empowered to buy wool in sufficient quantities, and woven material for the 72 sweaters, sending the bills to Mr. Ingalls, who had guaranteed the money from the Engineering and Mining Journal. This was attended to promptly, and the materials were ready for distribution to the committee on March 13. After considerable difficulty, knitting machines for the socks were discovered and the agent came to demonstrate them. Mrs. Spicer gave one to the Committee and Mr. Ingalls has guaranteed the money to buy two when the manufacturers can deliver them. Up to April 6, 130 pairs of socks, machine and hand-knitted, have been handed in-also 68 sweaters, 80 helmets and 90 pairs of wristlets. It has been calculated that it needs five women knitting behind each man at the front to keep him continuously supplied with knitted garments.

Jan 5, 1918

By Phillip J. Maddex

The cost of transporting mineral raw materials and products will receive greater attention in the next 10-20 years because raw material sources and markets are changing. Today, shipping costs may equal 20%-80% of the landed or delivered cost of raw materials and products. Companies are learning that total costs are what count to the company and customers. Transportation has historically been priced at "What the traffic would bear" and little real effort has been made to analyze the shippers problem and provide them with effective and low cost transportation. This climate existed in both ocean and rail transport. The shiplines and railroads did not understand the shipper's problems and few shippers understood transportation and how to buy it. Recently more consideration has been given to the advantages between the American Merchant Marine- American Flag and Foreign flag vessels. The discussions held focused on what action is desirable to encourage American flag operations. Based on extensive studies made by both A. E. Gibson, Maritime Administrator and R. J. Blackwell, Deputy Maritime Administrator, the resulting statistics show that the potential for ocean transport is as follows: U. S. Foreign trade is estimated at 620 million long tons annually in the early 1980's. It was 418 million tons in 1968. In 1968 only 6.4% of the U.S. ocean borne trade was carried on American Flag vessels. About 50 million tons of early 1980's trade will go ill container ships. That leaves over 500 million tons to go as bulk or "neo-bulk" cargo.

Jan 1, 1970

By Lyman H. Hart

Some of the significant facts that will affect the supply and demand for metals during the next few decades are given in this presentation. This is important because the only hope for intelligent guidance of the national destiny depends upon presenting a consistent and accurate picture of basic problems. The metals problems now fomenting are only slightly less important than those precipitating the energy crisis. Admittedly, it is difficult to generate serious thinking on this subject when the world is enjoying easy access to all metals at modest prices. This is possible because of the current world capacity to overproduce, and United States credit standing, at least up to now, has permitted buying freely on world markets. Although both these vital conditions are subject to change, there is little doubt that if the U.S. financial house is kept in order, we can muddle along for a while on a generally expanding, metalbased economy. But should our credit standing be permitted to collapse, or should there be a tightening of world supplies of metals, the nation would immediately find itself in trouble. Unfortunately, clear signals indicate that both of these conditions are threatening.

Jan 4, 1973

By Blandford C. Burgess

Mica is an orchid among minerals. It is formed in pegmatites, one of the most bizarre of igneous formations, and is exceeded by few other minerals in the perfection it may attain as to size, color, and cleavage. First used for window glazing, as an ornament and article of trade, it has become one of the most essential insulators of electricity, heat, and shock. Most internal combustion engines use mica condensers or capacitors and such machines of war as planes, tanks, and submarines are immobile without it. The original manuscript of this guide was written in April 1943 at the peak of war emergency. It was not used because shortly thereafter a decision was made to buy on a one price basis eliminating differentials for both quality and size. This is now presented with the thought that from the standpoint of preparedness we can only consider another war imminent and every effort should be made to set up in usable form the experience gained during the Second Morld War. Colonial Mica Corp. was set up by Metals Reserve Co. as a wholly owned government agency to encourage production of domestic mica and to purchase it. It soon became the exclusive buyimg agency for such mica. The writer as Southern Manager called on all the private agencies buying mica to assist in formulating buying policies, methods, and prices. A meeting was held for that purpose in Asheville, N. C., July 20, 1942. In the general discussion the first two hours of the meeting it was decided that the following factors should be considered in pricing strategic mica: clearness, flatness, trimming, color, classification (size and quality), free splitting, hardness, and air inclusions. Most of the mica miners have been buying strategic mica, according to the mine, as No. 1, No. 2, or Nos. 1 and 2 combined. In addition to these grades of strategic mica they have been buying three lower grades of mica, electric (vegetable-stained), black-spotted and black-stained. A number of mines were named one by one and the buyers present gave their opinions as to the basis they would use in buying the sheet mica from each. It was suggested that in addition to the prices already published, prices be posted up to 10 pct higher for special quality and preparation and prices be posted 25 pct lower than the published prices for the lowest acceptable grades of strategic mica, giving the buyers authority to make intermediate prices according to the quality and preparation. It was thought desirable at the same time to announce prices for nonstra-tegic mica where such quality is being obtained in mines producing strategic mica and where it would be necessary to take the output in order to get the strategic mica. It was also suggested that the price of electric and black-spotted mica be 50 pct below the price of the lowest grade of strategic mica and the price of black-stained mica be 60 pct below the price of lowest grade strategic mica. The few experienced buyers available were employed but they were inadequate for the job and others had to be trained. All needed a guide or primer of some kind to attain systematic procedure and consistent prices in their respective buying areas. The Mica Buyers Guide was formulated for that purpose based on experience gained in the first six months of buying. The Preface to the original guide was as follows: The purpose of this guide is to serve as a text in training beginners and as a handbook for experienced buyers of the instructions which have been issued up to this time. At the meeting of prospective buyers last summer, it developed that the first essential to attain uniformity must be some kind of check sheet. Our "Mica Buyers Report" was developed for this purpose and forms the backbone of this guide. Price is determined according to size, quality and preparation. Size can be measured, but no system of measurement or machine has been devised which can be substituted for the trained eye of the buyer to deterrnine quality and preparation. Although the "One Price" system was instituted and the "Guide" not used, the buyers were required to continue making out a "Mica Buyers Report" (Fig1) with each lot of mica purchased. The form proved its value and there is no doubt that in another such emergency some similar form should be

Jan 1, 1950

R. Dawson Hall, who has long been a member of the editorial staff of Coal Age, has been appointed managing editor. Increase the Promise of the future. Buy W. S. S.

Jan 7, 1919

AN economist at MIT provided Americans with myth destroying information which should prove effective against the gentlemen of the extreme left. For a number of years they have charged that a small number of companies in each industry has been grabbing more and more of the industry's business. M. A. Adelman has shown that the concentration of business in the hands of big corporations has not shown any sign of growth during the last 50 years. Quite the contrary, there has been a slight decline in this concentration, according to Adelman. There are more small companies per thousand population than ever before. Bearing this out is the fact that International Harvester is now doing 41 pct of the possible market against a former 85 pct; American Can Co. has dropped from 90 pct to 50 pct; American Smelting is down to 31 pct compared with 90 pct; and lastly, U. S. Steel which has plummeted from 65 pct to slightly more than 30 pct of the steel market. Declines of the same proportions have hit big companies in other industries. Price cuts on Detroit's 1953 automobiles indicate that even among the biggest competition is still one of the most important household gods. Big business is still slugging it out for the attention of the American consumer. It's a battle which can only have one result-benefit to the man who buys.

Jan 1, 1953

By Donald W. Gentry

Many firms in the minerals industry are facing enormous capital-equipment requirements for existing operations, planned expansion programs, pollution control systems, etc. Yet, because of existing economic conditions, mining companies find it increasingly difficult to obtain reasonable financing for the acquisition of large, high-cost capital equipment. One way of obtaining the use of mining and other major pieces of high-cost capital equipment is through leasing. The popularity of this approach is evidenced by the growing number of leasing companies, equipment manufacturers, and financial institutions now offering this service to their customers. Indeed, leasing has become a billion-dollar industry, and many commercial banks have developed sizeable portfolios in this area. "Should we buy or lease?" This question eventually comes up whenever a mining company needs additional major capital assets. Unfortunately, many buy-or-lease decisions are made on an emotional basis-rather than on a proper financial evaluation that would yield the…

Jan 9, 1975

By AIME AIME

EDWIN W. KEMMERER, professor of international finance at Princeton, in a speech before a banking conference at Urbana, Ill., on Nov. 26, stated that the increase in the store of gold held by the United States is not so alarming as it appears on the surface. Excerpts from his address, as reported by The New York Times, follow: "It is significant . . . that the value of gold as expressed in its purchasing power in the United States during the last half-dozen years has been higher than at any other equivalent period since our records began 140 years ago. Our so-called 59-cent dollar today buys about 25 per cent more goods at wholesale than did our old dollar in the prosperous year 1926, and an ounce of gold will now buy considerably more than twice what it did then. This present high value of gold is one reason for its recent large production.

Jan 1, 1941

By AIME AIME

HOWARD H. PRESTON, professor of economics and business at the University of Washington, presented a paper before the North Pacific Section, A.I.M.E., on Jan. 23, on the "Economic Aspects of Gold and Silver." He carefully reviewed recent governmental actions that have affected those metals and gave an interpretation of their effects. A brief excerpt from his address; follows: Including the proclamation of March 6, 1933, the principal steps of the present Administration which have carried the United States off the gold standard and led up to the present program have been: (1) The Presidential proclamation of March 6 controlling gold. (2) The monetary sections of the Emergency Banking Act of March 9. (3) Mobilization of gold under Executive orders issued March 10 and April 5. (4) The gold embargo by Executive order, April 20. (5) The controlled inflation bill, May 12. (6) The joint resolution abrogating the gold clauses, June 5. (7) The Executive orders on newly mined gold, Aug. 28. (8) The President's radio address of Oct. 22 and the R.F.C. gold-buying program. (9) New anti-hoarding order calling in small holdings of gold, Dec. 28, 1933 and Jan. 15, 1934. (10) Nationalization and revaluation of gold' (Message to Congress, Jan. 15).

Jan 1, 1934

DEFENSE Materials Procurement Agency has been moving rapidly to encourage copper industry expansion programs. Although copper production is at a high level, a shortage exists on a world-wide basis as well as on the domestic scene. Projected expansion programs will not ease this current demand for most of them are 2 to 5 years off. Refining facilities are adequate but there is a shortage of ore and scrap, and it is for this reason that the expansion programs are directed at developing more sources of supply. The domestic expansion programmed thus far and understood to have been arranged with price escalation should the domestic price go to 271/20, were summarized by American Metal Markets as follows (dates of announcement are given in parenthesis: .1-Copper Cities Mining Co.'s, $15,000,000 expansion near Miami, Ariz., to be operating about 1954. DMPA will buy 22,500 tons of copper a year up to a given amount on an agreed price of 23¢ per pound, with some exceptions and depending upon salability at a higher price to other purchasers in the U. S. (September 25th). 2-An RFC loan of $60,000 to North Butte Mining Co. to be paid off on the basis of deliveries at a purchase price of 241/20 per pound (September 25th). 3-A $25,000,000 expansion program by Phelps Dodge to provide 38,000 tons per year by late 1954. DMPA would purchase it at a price of 22¢ per pound up to 112,500 tons providing other purchasers in the U. S. will not pay a higher price (September 26th). 4-Anaconda Copper Mining Co. $40,000,000 expansion in Nevada to provide more than 30,000 (might be increased to 45,000) tons per year. DMPA would purchase the copper at 250 per pound for a limited period of time if it is not salable to industrial users at above this price. Production would start around 1953 (November 14th).

Jan 1, 1952

By C. A. Herbert

WITHIN the past few years, considerable development has been made in the coal-mining industry in Illinois and Indiana and it is the purpose of the authors to record its most important phases. Perhaps the two most striking features are the entry into the producing fields of certain large consumers of coal and the magnitude of some of the new operations. Mines are now being equipped by the. Chicago & Northwestern R. R., the Chicago,. Burlington & Quincy R. R., the Standard Oil Co., of Indiana, and the Union Electric Light & Power Co. of St. Louis. Besides, the U. S. Steel Corpn. has increased its coal-mining activities by commencing operations on its large holdings northeast of Benton, Franklin Co., Ill. Until recent years, the supply of coal has commonly been adequate and prices have generally been favorable, especially to large consumers, as the magnitude of their purchases enabled them to obtain satisfactory quotations from producers. In fact, most consumers of coal have believed that they could buy their fuel more satisfactorily in the open market than they could produce it themselves. The entry of the United States into the war was accompanied by various disarrangements of industrial conditions, and a demand for coal in excess of the supply seemed likely to be experienced for an indefinite period. Under these circumstances it seemed that the greatest assurance of a supply of fuel was its production by the operation of mines. In the case of the Chicago & Northwestern R. R. and the U. S. Steel Corpn. the production of coal has been carried on for many years with satisfactory results, but the C. B. & Q. R. R., the Union Electric Light & Power Co. and the Standard Oil Co. of Indiana had not been producers of coal, at least in this district. Apparently the most impressive feature of the newest mines is their capacity, for in some cases it is planned that production shall be in the neighborhood of 1000 tons per hr. There are mine, now in this field having nearly that output, but these were not planned for such

Jan 9, 1919

By Reaves. M. J.

The title of my talk, "What Happened to the Uranium Boom?" is old news. Certainly it is for this group. All of us that make our living in uranium know that the boom of the last half of the 1970's is over. U.S. production has been exceeding consumption by more than two to one. Mines and mills are closing and yellowcake prices have been dropping for over 20 months. The gloomy outlook for the industry in the near term has been well documented by soothsayers of various descriptions, your daily newspapers, and in the Nuexco Monthly Reports. I'd like to attempt to describe the next upturn in the market (speculate, really) based upon the clues we're seeing now. In order to do that, I'd first like to go over briefly, some of the market factors that contributed to the recent price drop and resultant production cutbacks, and then hypothesize on the way these factors are changing and will change. Market prices are greatly affected (maybe even entirely determined) by buyer perceptions. This is particularly true with uranium, because of the long lead times associated with nuclear plant construction and also with conventional mine/mill development. Before the price rise (say, 1975) utility uranium buyers believed that: 1) U.S. producers would have difficulty expanding to meet U.S. demand. 2) Australian and Canadian production was essential to avoid shortages in the early 1980's. 3) Uranlum prices would continue to rise as demand exceeded supply. 4) Enrichment capacity would become inadequate. It was thought necessary, therefore, to build enriched inventory in the early 1980's for use in the late 1980's. Artificially accelerated expansion of the uranium producer industry was necessary to accommodate anticipated enrichment demand. Current perceptions are largely the opposite. These are the beliefs that were held most of this year and late last year as prices dropped. 1) U.S. production is far in excess of domestic need. Contraction of the U.S. production lndustry is necessary. 2) Canadian and Australian supply is optional and not essential. Producers in those countries are expanding mainly by displacing higher cost production and not because they fill a void, 3) Prices may be essentially stable for some time. 4) Enriched uranium is in excess supply. That is 1981. 1982 is shaping up to look like this: 1) Prices will have bottomed out. (That is not Nuexco's opinion necessarily, by the way, but it is my opinion.) 2) There will still be substantial utility inventories, but fewer spot sales. 3) Canadian and perhaps Australian sellers will have made substantial sales in the U.S. and will be aggressively seeking more. 4) U.S. production will have been dramatically curtailed. U.S. utilities that wish to con- tract long term will have difficulty in finding domestic sellers. Concern will develop about the availability of U.S. production capability. Virtually all long term con- tracts signed will be with non-U.S. sellers. 5) An awareness will begin to develop among U.S. buyers that we are approaching a period of dependence upon foreign uranium (which will be true). The history of the uranium market has been one of dramatic changes and overreaction to those changes. The rapid price rise of a few years ago generated excess U.S. production capacity and the rapid price drop of the last two years will almost certainly result in too little capacity. It will soon be difficult for U.S. buyers to buy domestic material except on the spot market. The question is, "will they care?" The lack of demand, of course, is the underlying reason for the current poor health of the uranium industry. In 1972, 1973 and 1974 collectively, there were 105 nuclear reactors ordered in the U.S. That ordering rate was expected to continue and accelerate throughout this century. In 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, and 1980 altogether, there were 56 more reactors cancelled than ordered. The net growth of our only customer since 1974 has been a negative 56. TO put this in perspective, if these 56 reactors were operating now it would more than double present U.S. uranium consumption. Underlying lack of demand is something that is simply not going to change in this decade. Time is going to be required. The NRC indicates that the maximum feasible number of new reactors that can be licensed each year is six. That would increase uranium consumption by only 10% per year. New reactors, if ordered tomorrow, would not generate new uranium demand until after 1990. Even so, United States' consumption of uranium will rise from the 1980 level of 18 million pounds per year, to

Jan 1, 1982

Advantages to Members of Our Advertising Section.-It is our intention to make the advertising section of the Bulletin as comprehensive as possible, so that members can turn to it for complete information as to where to buy the best mining and metallurgical supplies at the lowest prices. No firms or supplies of dubious reputation are advertised in the Bulletin.. If members, in buying any material, will refer to the advertisement of that material in the Bulletin, or if they do not find it advertised in the Bulletin, will, when ordering, ask the manufacturers why the goods were not advertised in the Institute publication, it will be of material benefit to all of us, because the chief reason why advertisers .are unable to trace direct results is because purchasers do not mention the Bulletin when writing. Finally, if members, when in need of anything whatsoever, will write to the Institute headquarters, an effort will be made to send them a complete list of manufacturers able to supply the desired materials of good quality. The furnishing of these lists will be a benefit to our Advertising Department, as well as to the members. We need .scarcely call attention to the advantages obtained by the members from the motley which advertising brings in, because all this money is returned directly to the members in one form or another.

Jan 7, 1913

Advantages to Members of Our Advertising Section.-It is our intention to make the advertising section of the Bulletin as comprehensive as possible, so that members can turn to it for complete information as to where to buy the best mining and metallurgical supplies at the lowest prices. No firms or supplies of dubious reputation are advertised in the Bulletin. If members, in buying any material, will refer to the advertisement of that material in the Bulletin, or if they do not find it advertised in the Bulletin, will, when ordering, ask the manufacturers why the goods were not advertised in the Institute publication, it will be of material benefit to all of us, because the chief reason why advertisers are unable to trace direct results is because purchasers do not mention the Bulletin when writing. Finally, if members, when in need of anything whatsoever, will write to the Institute headquarters, an effort will be made to send them a complete list of manufacturers able to supply the desired materials of good quality. The furnishing of these lists will be a benefit to our Advertising Department, as well as to the members. We need scarcely call attention to the advantages obtained by the members from the money which advertising brings in, because all this money is returned directly to the members in one form or another.

Jan 7, 1913

FEB. 17-The past month found the average citizen backed off just a little more into his blind corner staring glassily at hydrogen bombs, unbalanced budgets, John L. Lewis, more inflation, a rising wave of strikes, the country's only active battleship on a mudbank, a famous scientist in gaol as a traitor, a favorite actress on a Roman holiday, and rising mountains of potatoes, butter and eggs begging for destruction. About the only bright spot has been industrial activity and employment, but even these are menaced by the coal shortage. Most industries have orders on hand or in prospect to warrant high operations for some time to come. The trend of the Reserve Board's production index is upward except as strikes may interfere. There has been heavy buying at the seasonal merchandise shows, particularly in furniture and house-hold goods. The demand for goods of this kind illustrates greater confidence in the Spring outlook than was generally felt a year ago. Further, the demand also reflects improved market positions due to curtailment of output and reduction of inventories in 1949 and sustained consumer buying power. It demonstrates the strong support that is given directly to many businesses, and indirectly to all, by the phenomenal construction activity that is now under way. The Commerce Department places the number of new dwelling units started in 1949 at the new all-time high of 1,019,000.

Jan 3, 1950

By F. S. Peabody

ANYTHING that may be said about "too much coal" must seem rather incongruous just at this time when two-thirds of the mines in the United States have been idle for nearly four months and a temporary coal shortage looms as more and more of a possibility. It is the purpose of this article, however, to deal primarily with the fundamental ills of the bituminous-coal industry, which, when summed up, can be expressed in one word-overdevelopment. During recent years the bituminous-coal industry in the United States has been seldom, almost never, in a state of normal business health with production run-ning evenly, prices steady and the market absorbing the output from week to week. There has been either a condition of feverish activity or apathetic sluggish-ness. We have had, for example, the intense strain on production during the war years with heatless days and lightless nights, followed by the slump late in 1918 which lasted through the greater part of 1919 when coal was a drug on the market. Then came the panicky demand of 1920. Competitive buying forced prices up to the highest levels in history. This demand in turn fell off suddenly in November, 1920, and the market remained apparently paralyzed all through 1921. During the latter year, lack of buying forced intermit-tent suspension of mining in all fields and prices averaged less than actual cost of production.

Jan 8, 1922