Capital Markets: Current And Future Trends In Availability & Applicability

TRENDS IN MINE FINANCE Reviewing historical trends may help in dealing with future funding strategies. The first trend is the increase in the use of debt to fund corporate America. Surprisingly, when comparing that with other corporates in the global marketplace, the U.S. does not look too poorly. Japanese, in particular, but also German companies, are much more leveraged than their U.S. counterparts. Note that in Japan and Germany the government and the consumer have shown substantial restraints when it comes to credit. Not so in the U.S. where the savings rate (4%) is much lower than that in Japan (20%) and in Germany (14%). As a result, the cost of leverage is substantially lower in Japan and in Germany than in the U.S. Lower debt costs in these countries allows one to obtain more of it for the same price. The close relationships between financial institutions, corporations and governments in Japan and Germany also make the risk of leverage more bearable and understandable. Also note that interest rate volatility in these countries is more subdued. The investor base in common stock is also changing. Private pension funds have been net sellers of equities during the last few years while public pension funds have been net buyers. Individuals are basically out of the market. It is estimated that over $330 billion of equity was retired in the U.S. through 1986-1988. The reasons are well known: restructurings, buy-backs, takeovers, mergers, and buy-outs. This de-equitization is likely to continue as the cost of equity capital is higher than the cost of debt capital, even on a before-tax basis. Because there has been no market for equity since October 19, 1987, junk bonds have replaced equity capital in the corporate finance structure. The non-investor-grade borrower has access to the public markets through high-yielding debt securities that often look like senior equity. Deregulation has also provided 24-hour markets; securitization can now liquify assets that before were rusting on balance sheets; information processing and communication tools give facts that are instantaneously available, creating the need for products to cover risk and exposures unknown before the start of the information and technology explosion. Thus we now have swaps, options, futures, options on futures, caps, as well as program trading, portfolio insurance, index funds, etc. Globalization will be unstoppable. Today's environment demands it. Corporations are now global competitors, even though they may have never shipped a product off-shore. Boundaries are disappearing and impediments have been removed. Stocks can be issued in a global offering with distribution in all major financial centers of the world. The high leverage of Japanese companies has made common stocks very scarce, which with the high savings rate, makes equity capital inexpensive in Japan. If markets were perfect everyone would issue stock in Tokyo and buy it back in New York. This would certainly stop the bleeding on the balance of payments. With the deficit balance of payments in America, it is no surprise that the cost of money is expensive here. The risk-return relationship on U.S. equity is not favorable enough to appeal to Japanese equity investors. The Tokyo-market, helped by a stronger yen, surpassed New York as the most important equity market in the world. The question is, will the Tokyo market hold up when Japanese domestic consumption increases at the expense of savings? In the U.S. debt markets, the plain vanilla debenture is making a comeback after a period of absence. Commercial paper has replaced short term bank borrowings for working capital funding by larger corporations. The banks have made an interesting comeback with loan sale programs that will continue to attract borrowers. There will be a continuing