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By Amri Priambodo, Ian Leslie, Valérie Laflèche, Agustina Ratnaningrum, Robin Paine, Andrianus Sinaga, Willem de Beer

Freeport Indonesia consists of surface, civil and underground mining areas exposed to numerous geotechnical risks and hazards. PTFI uses various monitoring systems (Micro-Seismic, Firefly Light System, Mira Geoscience machine learning, etc.) to effectively manage these risks. The significant volumes of data from these sensors must be integrated into actionable information to provide the expected risk management. This occurs at the GeoEngineering Integrated Monitoring Centre (GIMC), a centralized department within the GeoEngineering Division, tasked with the responsibility to manage all geotechnical monitoring systems. The main hazard the GIMC is responsible for managing in real time is mine seismicity within the underground mining areas and the potential impacts on safe operations. Seismic system engineers achieve this objective through 24 hours a day and seven days a week operations of the GIMC, providing a centralized point of communication, alerts, evacuations and control during seismic events and emergencies. This paper will describe how the GIMC achieves its goal using reliable procedures and strategies based on detailed Triggered Action Response Plan (TARP), concise communications, novel technologies (FireFly Lighting System), and proven seismic re-entry programs to manage risk within the underground mining operations. The integration of geotechnical monitoring and reporting into a centralized group has improved the effectiveness and management of seismic risks and hazards at PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) mining operations.

Apr 26, 2022

By Erwin Riyanto, Roy William, Karl Llewellyn

The Deep Mill Level Zone (DMLZ) mine is currently one of the deepest block cave mines in the world. The rock mass is heavily veined with little to no joints and faults are usually healed cohesive structures leading to difficult cave mining conditions. The caving process is improved if the rock mass contains fractures with sufficient density that it will cave by gravity as undercutting progresses. Hydraulic fracturing (HF) has been used to create fractures around the cave to improve mining. A seismic monitoring system has been used in DMLZ since the start of mining. Therefore, the seismic activities before, during and after HF can be monitored. Shear wave splitting is a process used to study the impacts of HF on the rock mass. This process involves the measurement of travel times from splitting shear waves after seismic events and using this to define the anisotropy within the rock mass and subsequently fracture density. This paper sets out the methodology for carrying out the interpretation of the shear wave splitting process using seismic data from the fracked cave crown and abutments along with an overview of the benefits to cave mining as result.

Apr 26, 2022

By M. du Plessis, J. P. Gouvea

Mesh based areal support is commonly applied in South-African deep-level gold mines. It forms part of an integrated support system that can cater for both rockfall and rockburst incidents. The application has been successfully applied over many years. Operations have different geotechnical conditions and practical considerations, which has led to the development of various types of mesh and integrated mesh-based support systems (i.e. meshing and lacing versus welded or chain-link mesh sheets). Typically rolls or sheets of mesh is pinned with rockbolts to the surface of an exposed excavation. Applications vary from hangingwall coverage in a conventional stope gully to complete excavation coverage in footwall drives of conventional mines or on-reef drives in massive mechanised mines. It is however critical to understand the behaviour of the rockmass and apply suitable support systems.

Apr 26, 2022

By QU Hong-lue, YANG Lin-han

Aiming at the subjective impact caused by subjective weighting method in the establishment of rockburst risk attribute identification and prediction model, the combined weighting method was introduced to eliminate the influence of unreasonable weight of each index. Eight discriminant indexes affecting the risk of rockburst were selected. Through the literature review, relevant rockburst cases were collected and 8 index rockburst sample sets were established. A variety of machine learning methods were used to analyze the feature importance of discriminant indexes in the samples, and then to determine the objective weight values of different methods. Combined with the subjective weights determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the combination of weights were successively carried out. Based on the attribute recognition theory, the combination weights with different objective weight methods were established to identify the rockburst risk attributes, and verified by the confidence criterion. The results show that the objective weight value determined by the feature importance analysis of machine learning reduces the subjectivity of the weight of Analytic Hierarchy Process method, improves the prediction accuracy, and makes the prediction result closer to the fact.

Apr 26, 2022

By Dongxu Jia, Chen Cao, Shuangwen Ma, Jun Han, Huibin Ma

Coal bump, or coal burst, is one of the catastrophic disasters in underground coalmine. Among them, approximate 80% of recorded destructive burst events were occurred in mining roadway. The bump panel is often formed by hard coal seam and hard main roof; however, the cause and course of the bump events are not understood yet. This study provides a fundamental theory for the causality and progress of a coal bump event occurred in longwall roadway. Considering hard roof condition commonly existed in bump panels, we think that the abutment pressure induced by suspended roof behind the working face is the trigger of a coal bump event occurred in the roadway. Once high abutment pressure is concentrated on the hard coal seam around the working face, the roof and the coal around the working face form a seesaw-like structure, which leads the roof in front of the working face moving upwards. The movement of roof uplifting in front of the working face is a well evidenced phenomenon in practice, namely, roof rebounding, which causes unloading of the normal stress on the roof-coal interface around the roadway. A rib coal block bump mechanical model has been developed to establish the critical equilibrium equation of the coal block. Result shows that, the force source of coal bump is the horizontal ground stress perpendicular to the rib surface; and the slippage of the coal block is caused by the unloading of the normal stress acting on the roof-coal interface. Based on the causality and consequence theory of coal bump developed in the paper, several new prediction and prevention measures have been developed, including roadway design and in-tunnel reinforcing methods. The commonly used prevention measures in present have also been discussed. This paper presents a comprehensive explanation of coal bumps occurred in longwall roadways, from abutment pressure at working face forming seesaw structure to roof rebounding leading slippage of the rib coal mass into roadway, which provides a fundamental theory for coal bump causality mechanism and prediction and prevention technology.

Apr 26, 2022

By Stephen Meyer, Véronique Falmagne, Antti Pyy

Kittilä Mine is a gold mine located in Northern Finland, owned and operated by Agnico Eagle Finland. The mining operation started in 2008 with open pits which were completed in 2012 and production moved to being entirely underground. The mine consists of four separate orebodies, currently producing 2.0 Mt per annum, and requiring over 19 km of development on a yearly basis. The principal mining method is long hole stoping with delayed backfill. Microseismic monitoring was initially tested in the Suuri orebody, in the mining block between the 625 and 500 Levels. A small monitoring system was installed in 2018, after observations of stress-induced damage to the rock mass and in anticipation of future mining at greater depth. The initial goals were to evaluate if useful data could be recorded and test the signal quality of different sensor types. Prior to 2018, ground control related challenges in the Suuri and Roura mining blocks had been mostly related to sill pillar mining and block movements between weak graphitic schist planes. Seismic monitoring in the Suuri deposit proved successful for following the rock mass response to mining and helped support the rationale for early monitoring in the new, deeper mining block in Rimpi at 900 m depth. Preliminary geotechnical characterization and testing of the rock mass showed areas of silicification in the footwall rocks with potentially continuous structural features. Seismic monitoring of the Rimpi area has confirmed the brittle behavior of the rock mass, with strong seismic responses induced by stress changes following blasting being recorded. In addition to this expected behavior, a large magnitude event associated with significant damage in the footwall drive development 90 m above the stoping was experienced. Initial investigation of the rockburst showed two separate damage locations with over 300 tons of displaced rock. The seismic monitoring system recorded this rockburst as a single seismic event with magnitude significantly larger than previously recorded. Additional analyses indicated a possible thrust fault event, triggering two separate strainbursts. Following this event, the ground support system was upgraded in parts of the footwall drives to improve dynamic capacity. Systematic calculation of the source mechanisms for the small footwall events down to Mw-2.5 has revealed potential planar structures in the footwall. Early implementation of microseismic

Apr 26, 2022

By Hendri Silaen, Ishak Degei, Nicoll Soumilena, Arwin Edijanto, Avesiena Primadiansyah

PT Freeport Indonesia’s Deep Mill Level Zone (DMLZ) is one of three operating cave mines at the Grasberg mine complex. The DMLZ is situated in the East Ertsberg Skarn System (EESS). It is set 500 m below the operating DOZ mine and located approximately 1,500 m below the surface, making it one of the world’s deepest panel caving operations. Initial undercutting of the DMLZ commenced in the second half of 2015 and has expanded to more than 120,000 m2. High pre-mining stresses and the changes associated with caving, combined with a strong and brittle rock mass, led to significant seismicity and rock bursting. Stress and seismic management are the main challenges for the operation and have evolved significantly from initial undercutting to the present. Considerable amounts of empirical data associated with ground response have been collected, evaluated and combined with historical lessons learned from the Intermediate Ore Zone (IOZ) and Deep Ore Zone (DOZ) mines, which are located within the EESS. This has provided an improved understanding of how the various geological, geotechnical and mine design criteria relate to one another. Additionally, the information has allowed for the development and implementation of improved strategies for stress and seismic management in the DMLZ. This paper describes how these learnings have driven changes in mine geometry, layout, and support systems. Through comprehensive monitoring and detailed inspections, positive changes have been seen in the ground response, leading to an increase in footprint reliability and accelerated cave growth. The paper summarizes the key learnings at the DMLZ regarding stress and seismic management as well as the positive improvements towards sustained and safe caving operations in the DMLZ.

Apr 26, 2022

By Wenkai Wan, Charlie C. Li

Strain burst can occur in underground hard rock excavation when the in-situ stresses are high enough. The prerequisite for rock burst is that the total energy released from the rock mass is higher than the energy needed for rock fracture. The total released energy is contributed by both the burst rock and the surrounding rock. The part of the energy from the burst rock is constant per unit volume of the rock, but the part from the surrounding rock is associated with the burst volume. A greater amount of energy will be released from the surrounding rock in the case of a larger volume of burst rock. The postulation for the energy conversion in strain burst is verified through a FLAC3D model in the paper. It is assumed that the strain burst occurs in a circular tunnel that is located in the hydrostatically loaded rock mass in the model. Six pairs of notches with different depths are created in the opposite walls of the tunnel to simulate the bursts. The energies released from the notch rocks and from the surrounding rock are calculated during the burst. The simulation results show that the percentage of the energy released from the surrounding rock in the total released energy increases with the notch depth. The numerical modelling confirms the postulation that the surrounding rock contributes more energy than the burst rock itself in large-scale strain bursts

Apr 26, 2022

By Patrick Linzer, Lindsay Linzer

By its nature, seismology has been a data intensive field since the first digital computers were introduced in the 1950s. The first empirical models were developed in the same period and are still widely used today, for instance, the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship (Gutenberg and Richter, 1956). Machine learning (ML) methods make it possible to redefine these empirical models using large datasets and examining considerably more parameters, where their significance to the problem being addressed is methodically and repeatably evaluated using robust statistical methods. In this paper we develop a simple logistic model for the short-term prediction of seismic events above a threshold magnitude from a mine’s event catalogue comprising more than a million events with 14 basic parameters from which a pool of over 830 derived parameters was developed, covering a series of 11 precursory time windows. The logistic model was fitted stepwise using SAS with α = 0.025 for both entry and acceptance. 25 variables from the pool met the acceptance criterion. The findings were surprising in that parameters a rock engineer or seismologist might have expected to be the most significant in the logistic model were not; instead, it was an increase in standard deviation of the immediately-prior seismic magnitudes that carried the most weight, followed by the average maximum source displacement and median apparent volume change. These findings make intuitive sense because the increasing scatter of the magnitude shows an increasing number of large events being recorded that could be indicative of instability in the system that could lead to large events. The model is rudimentary and enormous scope exists for more exploration in terms of data pre-processing, model types, and response variable definitions.

Apr 26, 2022

By Ehsan Moosavi, Kamyar Tolouei, Mehran Gholinejad

The literature defines rockbursts in slightly different ways based on their generation mechanisms, field phenomena, and degree of damage, but in a way that is almost consistent. Generally, a rockburst refers to seismic events that mainly happen in underground excavations, for purposes such as underground mining, road and railway tunnels, nuclear power, etc., and that are followed by the collapse and outburst of rocks. Long-term rockburst prediction can be abstracted as a classification problem mathematically, in which we can introduce deep learning to solve it. Further, using deep learning in rockburst prediction can overcome drawbacks such as subjectivity and inconsistency brought from previous traditional approaches. A rockburst data-set, was employed to evaluate the current method for predicting rockburst grade, and the good results of overall success rate were obtained. The results indicated that the proposed algorithms can speed up parameter optimization search, the proposed method is robust model and might hold a high potential to become a useful tool in rockburst prediction research.

Apr 26, 2022

By M. Sears, W. H. Su, J. Wickline, M. A. Van Dyke, G. Esterhuizen, Z. Khademian

It is commonly recognized that seismicity can be induced by rock failures or slip along geologic structures around mining excavations. The unpredictable nature of these events and their proximity to the working area may raise safety concerns in underground mining operations. Modeling can be a useful tool for estimating seismic potential for a given mine layout, but the challenge is to detect a seismic event and estimate its intensity in the model. One well-documented approach is to monitor the variation in the energy content of the model and record potentially damaging seismic events when there is a significant release of energy. Researchers from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) employed this approach using 3DEC modeling software to simulate the anomalous seismic events that occurred in a deep longwall mine in Virginia in 2005. A four-panel model of the mine was constructed utilizing a 2D cross section at the location of the mining face at the time of the event. Seismic potentials associated with the development of each panel are evaluated by recording the seismic energy released during the simulation. The results demonstrate the occurrence of two relatively significant events during the mining of the last panel, which are consistent with the historical observations at the mine.

Apr 26, 2022

By P K. Kaiser, D A. Malovichko

Highly stressed excavations in hard brittle rock may fail by self-initiated, triggered or dynamically loaded strainbursts (Moss and Kaiser 2021). The low-frequency part of seismic radiation associated with strainbursts is described by a crush-type seismic source mechanism with a significant negative (implosive) isotropic component and a ‘pancake-shape’ CLVD deviatoric component. The seismic source is co-located with the excavation damage site. For such strainbursts, the ejection velocity is primarily related to the depth of strainbursting, the rock mass bulking characteristics, the duration of the bulking process, and the effectiveness of the support system. For dynamically loaded strainbursts, the displacement and energy demand may be augmented by the impact of the stress wave from a distant seismic event. This article describes the failure process and factors contributing to rock deformation and energy demands for support design. Case examples are used to demonstrate the dependence of rock displacements, rock ejection and energy demand on the factors described above. A seismic source model is proposed to assess the depth of strainbursting and the duration of the related bulking process by using seismic monitoring data. The implications for support design are briefly discussed.

Apr 26, 2022

By Peter Zhang, Mark Van Dyke, Ted Klemetti, Morgan Sears

Room-and-pillar mining is a mining method used in the United States to extract coal from underground, and pillar recovery is widely practiced for maximizing coal recovery and mining economics. Under certain conditions, room-and-pillar mining can create high stresses in coal pillars resulting in a coal outburst. These outbursts represent one of the more severe safety hazards in underground coal mines, potentially causing injuries and fatalities. Over the past ten years, coal outbursts have resulted in three fatalities in U.S. room-and-pillar mines. Though coal outbursts generally occur under deep cover, they are more likely to occur during pillar recovery and under multiple-seam mining conditions. Coal outbursts are generally associated with strong roof and floor and heavy loading of coal pillars, but it is difficult to predict whether, where, and when they will occur. In this respect, risk management provides a proactive tool to prevent coal outbursts in room-and-pillar mining by identifying mining areas with high risk of outburst and mitigating the risk accordingly.

Apr 26, 2022

By B. Ollila, L. Brown

As mining fronts converge in sill pillar extraction, the mine seismic hazard can be significantly altered and large seismic events have been known to occur. This study used common seismological tools to analyze the extraction of highly stressed sills from two deep Canadian mines with the objective of characterizing the rock mass failure process and relation to large seismic events. The approach treated a sill pillar as a mine-scale failure process, meaning the temporal and spatial analysis scales needed to exist on a similar scale to a significant part of the mine. The temporal analysis scale overlapped with the entire mining sequence, included several years of data to establish long term change in the characteristics of rock mass failure. The spatial analysis scale included the rock mass surrounding a large part of the convergent mining sequence. To accommodate the large spatial and temporal scales, the highest magnitude 2% of events in the dataset were analyzed. Similar results were shown for sill pillars in both mines. Changes in event location, time, magnitude, energy index and apparent volume were similar to expected behavior of rock failure. Indications of strain hardening and strain softening were observed in the sills. The hardening period was characterized by a high rate of small events, high energy index and low apparent volume, giving an indication of high stress and low rock yield. The softening phase was characterized by a decrease in the rate of small events concurrent with an increase in the rate of large events, low energy index and high apparent volume, indicative of release of stress and increase in deformation. Large magnitude seismicity was strongly related to the softening phase, with several Nuttli magnitude 3.0+ events occurring shortly after the transition from hardening to softening failure regimes. Sill failure was indicated by consistently low EI and low levels of seismicity and seismic hazard in the sill pillar.

Apr 26, 2022

By E Mutaz, M Bahaaddini, D J. Williams, M Serati

The contribution of the mining industry to the global economy has reached (and gone beyond) $1,800 billion in recent years that necessitates (more than before) the need to ensure workability, viability, health, and safety of mine sites and workers to meet the ever-increasing global demand for mineral resources. Amongst the many challenges facing the excavation industries, rockburst and spalling failures in deep mines in hard and brittle rock formations are yet happening that are still deemed as unsolved problems. During unconfined compressive testing of brittle rocks, microcracks initiate at approximately 0.3–0.5 of the peak strength (which is commonly known as the Crack Initiation stress level) mainly in the direction of the major principal stress, then grow unstably and coalesce to form macro fractures at approximately 0.7–0.8 of the peak load at a so-called Crack Damage stress threshold. From a stress-strain perspective, the crack damage stress threshold () is associated with the reversal point of the volumetric strain, which is also proved to be strongly affected by the intermediate principal stress. This paper extends the previous studies on the impact of true triaxial loading conditions on the CD stress level in high porosity rocks, and introduce a new Crack Mode-Changing Stress (CMCS) defined as the minimum principal stress required to change rock fracturing from splitting to a sliding failure mode. A large number of experiments on sandstone specimens were carried out at different true triaxial loading conditions and the effect of principal stresses on the CI and CD as well as CMCS were studied. The results show that not only the intermediate principal stress, but also the minor principal stress can significantly affect the CD and CMCS thresholds.

Apr 26, 2022

By Grażyna Dzik, Adam Mirek, Krzysztof Król

The Upper Silesian Coal Basin is located in the area of the Upper Silesian Syncline and belongs to one of the most complex tectonic units in Europe. It occupies 5,650 km2. In 2020, there were 20 hard coal mines operating in the area. Seismological research in this area consists of observation of precursors/symptoms of shock generation and understanding of their effects. Studies (Teisseyre R. 1972, Mutke G. & Stec K. 1997, Stec K. 2007, Dubiński J. & other 2010, Idziak A. 2010) of complex impacts of rock mass provided a background for determining the conditions for the formation of exploitation and regional seismic shocks. Issues related to tectonic and exploitation stresses, successive extraction of coal seams at higher depths, operation in the vicinity of fault zones, often complex geological and organic conditions result in the activation of a discontinuity surface due to stress caused by deformation of rock layers, which, as a result, causes the emergence of strong shocks above 107 J. The article was based on analyses of extraction value, high-energy shocks, both of mining and tectonic-mining (so-called regional shocks) origin, against the background of changing operating conditions, which, as a result, creates an image of periodically changing seismic activity and location of strong shocks. Observation results show that, with an increase in exploitation depth and declining extraction, the number of strong shocks caused by tectonic stress (107 - 109 J) and exploitation stress (≥105 J) has been steadily increasing over the last 25 years.

Apr 26, 2022

By Klein E., Kinscher J., Lizeur A., De Santis F., Lhoumaud E.

Seismic repeaters are rarely observed phenomena in underground mines. However, recent studies in Garpenberg mine (Sweden) have demonstrated that seismic repeaters and multiplets may represent significant portion of the total number of microseismic events (> 80 %) related to excavation operations. Detailed seismic analysis, involving template matching, multiplet clustering, double-difference relocation, source parameter and mechanism estimation, and interevent time analysis, suggest that seismic repeaters represent brittle frictional parts (asperity) of creeping, planar shaped, pre-exiting structures of several meters length. It is furthermore suggested that seismic repeater occur preferentially in weak rock-mass materials (e.g. talc) associated with strengthening friction behaviors. These results may imply that postblast related stress redistribution may be governed by “silent” aseismic movements in preferentially weak rock mass materials, what questions the reliability and performance of seismic monitoring to survey stress evolution during excavation operations. However, once the seismic and aseismic coupling processes and the geological nature linked to repeater occurrences are better understood, their detailed monitoring bears also opportunities to survey and quantify aseismic post-blast stress transfer. Here we present ongoing investigations on repeater occurrences aiming at better understating on their geological and geomechanical origin. Furthermore, we try to develop advanced monitoring tools helping to quantify aseismic slip and to provide criteria for seismic hazard as asperity density and the related potential to generate larger dynamic rupture zones. For this respect a local monitoring network has been set up close to certain repeater target families. Furthermore, geological well log drilling throughout repeater occurrences as well as geotechnical strain measurements (e.g. extensometer, optical fiber etc.) are currently conducted to provide crucial information on the geological nature of repeater and to quantify and characterize background creep induced from excavation.

Apr 26, 2022

By Jurgens PE Hamman, Faisal Putra, Hadnaltias Alpeki, Willem de Beer

The Deep Ore Zone mine is the third lift of caving at PT Freeport Indonesia’s East Ertsberg Skarn System. An increasing trend in seismicity along the northern boundary of the DOZ cave, as well as the northern fringes of the DOZ production and infrastructure levels, was taken as indicative of an interaction between the approaching DMLZ cave and the DOZ subsidence zone. Seismicity trends and locations indicated a reducing crown pillar and an associated stress increase along these DOZ excavations, as well as the regional area along the DOZ cave boundaries. Although rockbursts were not identified as an immediate hazard, seismic shakedown was a highly probable hazard in the case of remote large (≥3.0) seismic events. An evaluation process, as described in the Canadian Rockburst Support Handbook (1996), was followed to identify and quantify the various parameters that could contribute to a shakedown evaluation. A shakedown assessment, based on the Peak Particle Velocities scaling relation, was conducted to assess the current installed ground support systems along the northern fringes and the fixed facilities of the DOZ mine. The range in ground support systems were mostly due to different geotechnical environments. The load–deformation characteristics of these support systems were evaluated to determine the support capacity and compared to the potential support demand under varying shakedown conditions. Shakedown hazard maps were compiled to indicate the installed ground support system’s vulnerability to seismic shaking. Based on this information, areas were divided into zones indicating whether they were sufficiently supported, additional support was required, access was to be restricted, and / or they were to be abandoned. Mine management utilised these hazard maps to strategize actions for the various operational zones within the DOZ, including the fixed facilities. This paper briefly describes the derivation of the PPV scaling relationship. Seismic and geological data for the DMLZ – DOZ interaction areas were evaluated to determine the likely source of large events. Subsequent larger events and their effects are shown to assess the veracity of the magnitude and PPV estimates, as well as the effectiveness and appropriateness of the ground support systems.

Apr 26, 2022

By KOKOWSKI J., RUDZIŃSKI Ł.

The LUMINEOS network was established in 2013 to monitor mining-induced seismicity in Legnica-Głogów Copper District (LGCD), located in south-western Poland. Since the starting time, the network was improved and today consists of 17 seismometers and 10 accelerometers. Up to now, the strongest recorded earthquake in the region had Mw4.0. Both raw seismic data and earthquakes catalog for events recorded by the LUMINEOS network are fully open and available on the EPISODES platform (https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/#episode:LGCD). During the last 7 years, the network improvements gave us a possibility to increase location accuracy for shallow mining events. This accuracy is influenced by factors such as the configuration of seismic stations, noise level at seismic stations, and the influence of the velocity model. Here we encountered two main issues which are worth to discuss. The first one is the low detection threshold of two seismic stations and their significant impact on the location errors. The second one is the large uncertainty in the S-wave picking. Even though S-waves are not so clearly visible on seismograms, they are very helpful in the estimation of source location and strength of seismic events in the region. In our work, we present the history of LUMINEOS network and corresponding improvement on location accuracy as well as the influence of noisy stations on the error distribution and how it is connected with location results. We also investigate the effect of the S-wave phases and how they are related to the accuracy of the earthquakes locations in the network.

Apr 26, 2022

By Kathy Kalenchuk

To develop strategic and tactical strategies to manage seismic hazard in a safe and economic manner, it is necessary to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of mine wide seismogenic behavior. Global mine-scale numerical stress modelling provides a means to forward predict seismic susceptibility thereby facilitating informed decision making for the development and implementation of strategic and tactical risk mitigation measures. To make forward predictions of hazard susceptibility using global stress models with reasonable confidence, it is necessary to rigorously calibrate numerical stress models to the observed history of ground reaction. This paper demonstrates quantifiable methods for calibrating numerical models and developing probabilistic prediction criterion using seismic data. The appropriate applications of model inputs (including boundary conditions, constitutive models and material parameterization) specific to global mine-scale modelling are also discussed. Lastly, this paper demonstrates how the calibration process adds value not only to informed decision making, but also to the improved understanding of site geomechanical conditions; including enhanced identification of geotechnical domains and mechanical indicators required for seismic mechanism domaining.

Apr 26, 2022