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By M. K. G. Whateley, W. Hatton

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 20pp., 31 refs. Estimates of coal tonnage on UK open cast mining sites often vary from the recoverable tonnage. This is because the estimates depend on the geological variability of the coal measures. Geological parameters, such as thickness, quality and disturbance of the seam, have a direct control upon this variance. Risk analysis techniques have been applied using commercially available software to combine each parameter's variability into a cumulative variance, resulting in a tonnage distribution. Sensitivity modelling has also been used to identify the geological parameters which have the largest influence on the variance of the simulated tonnage distribution. An understanding of the relationship between the tonnage and geological variability has helped to focus exploration more efficiently. A cost to risk relationship can now be monitored, helping management to avoid negative consequences on site

Aug 1, 1995

By I. Cameron-Clarke

This paper describes the design of a wellfield to provide a water supply for a new mine in southern Africa. A hydrogeological investigation was conducted that included the drilling and test pumping of eight wells located within a highly jointed pyroxenite aquifer. The wellfield was designed using a simple probabilistic analysis. This approach allowed the variability of the aquifer parameters to be taken into account. A risk assessment analysis was then carried out to evaluate the level of assurance that a reliable water supply could be provided by the wellfield. The analysis was also used to assess the effects of supplementing the water supply by pumping from nearby flooded workings.

Jan 1, 1992

By F. Calizaya

A booster fan is an underground ventilation device installed in the main airstream to handle the total quantity of air circulated to one or more working districts. It is installed in a permanent stopping and equipped with airlock doors, a monitoring system and interlocking devices between the main fan and the booster fan. When adequately installed, a booster fan can be used to reduce the main fan pressure, reduce leakage and decrease the power consumption. However, an inadequate installation can increase the likelihood of mine fies and recirculation of air contaminants. This study identifies hazards associated with the operation and maintenance of booster fans. It analyzes the accompanying risks and recommends control measures to reduce those risks to acceptable levels. The ventilation network of an existing coal mine was updated to include a booster fan. The hazards associated with the operation of this fan were identified, the risks analyzed and the esponse to each failure mode established.

Mar 1, 2014

By Riley S. J

Ranger Uranium Mine is located within the Alligator Rivers Region of the Northern Territory of Australia and surrounded by the World Heritage listed Kakadu National Park (Figure 1). The mining operation is currently producing about 1500 tonnes of uranium oxide annually, as well as considerable volumes of waste rock, low grade ore and tailings. The rehabilitation of the project should ensure that the radioactive mill tailings and other contaminants remain contained for at least 200 years, as required by the existing guidelines (Commonwealth of Australia, 1987). The present uranium mining operation is regulated by the Northern Territory Department of Mines and Energy who must refer to the Environmental Requirements when considering regulatory options. These Environmental Requirements were agreed by the

Jan 1, 1994

By C Smith, R I. Maczkowiack, P D. Erskine

Open cut coal-mining has been conducted in the Bowen Basin region of central Queensland for almost five decades, and has disturbed an estimated area of 140 000 ha of agricultural land until 2011. Approximately one-third of the area disturbed by mining has been rehabilitated to pastures or bushland. However, none of the rehabilitated land has yet been assigned a specific end-use. This research project develops an approach for assessing end-use risks for the regionÆs mined land, and develops risk assessment models for selected end-uses. First, a web-based survey of stakeholders was used to identify risks to be assessed. The risks identified were surface erosion, subsurface erosion, bushfires, weeds and feral animals. The survey also identified possible end-uses of bushland and grazing. Second, conceptual risk models were developed based on the risk assessment concepts of likelihood and consequence specified in the Australian and New Zealand risk assessment standards. Likelihood was modelled using site characteristics and management factors that influence the occurrence probability of risks (eg surface erosion), while consequence was modelled using a set of site condition indicators and condition thresholds (changes in root-zone water-holding capacity, soil erodibility, vegetation ground cover and soil organic matter and transition probability to a non-preferred ecosystem type).The factors influencing likelihood and consequence for each risk have been integrated using Bayesian networks. The next step in model development is to parameterise the Bayesian networks using existing equations, empirical datasets, or expert opinion where data are not available. The parameterised models will be used to assess grazing and bushland end-uses against erosion, bushfire, weed and feral animal risks for rehabilitated mined land sites, with the purpose of identifying the relative risks associated with each end-use, and the landform design specifications and land management practices under which end-use risks are minimised.CITATION:Maczkowiack, R I, Smith, C and Erskine, P D, 2012. Risk assessment models for post-mining land use, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2012, pp 33-42 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 10, 2012

By Nilufer Kursunoglu

Despite being crucial for meeting the world’s energy demands, coal mining operations present considerable health risks, especially when it comes to exposure to coal dust. Longwall coal mining, an advanced technique, has considerably enhanced production but made dust control more difficult. Due to its explosive nature, coal dust continues to be a serious and dangerous concern in the industry despite developments in safety technology. This study aims to comprehensively assess the risk of coal dust explosions by integrating fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis methodologies, offering precise risk ratings for various root causes. A fuzzy risk matrix was developed to assign exact risk ratings to identified root causes. Additionally, a Pareto chart was used to identify the main reasons and suggest particular preventive measures. 17 significant causes were determined for underground coal mines based on the study’s methodology, and some preventive measures were suggested. In accordance with fuzzy risk rating values, root causes were divided into six categories. The root hazard with the highest risk rating was identified as ‘accumulation of inflammable gas/gases’. The proposed approach was used to examine incidents caused by coal dust explosions in Turkish coal mines in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of combining the fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis for assessing coal dust explosions. This study gives not only a solid framework for risk assessment but also critical information for classifying the risks associated with coal mine dust explosions. The results highlight the critical necessity for proactive and preventive actions to reduce the hazards of coal dust explosions and protect the safety of mining workers.

Nov 16, 2023

By L. Mohammadi

Outline ?Background on the accident at the Sullivan Mine No.1 Waste Dump ?Holistic approach to understand the reason for accidents (Atmospheric) ?Specific hazards at reclamation sites ?Regular atmospheric risk assessment at reclamation sites ?Fuzzy risk assessment ?Managing risk at legacy sites

May 1, 2010

By S SSdbom

A comparison was made between chemical analysis and ocular mineral/rock classification in health-based risk assessment of historical mine waste produced between 1625 and 1975. Large parts of the mine waste are heavily weathered and secondary minerals are abundant. The field was divided into several areas from where composite samples were collected. Seventy-five mine waste samples were selected for chemical analysis (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, V and Zn) and ocular mineral/rock classification (silicate, mica, granite/pegmatite, carbonate, iron oxide ore, sulfide ore, distribution between chalcopyrite, sphalerite and galena and distribution between pyrite and pyrrhotite). The waste has been produced in conjunction with mining a complex sulfidic ore with increasing iron oxide content (mainly magnetite) towards the northern part of the field. Elevated concentrations were found for Cd (average 26 mg/kg dw), Cu (average 3500 mg/kg dw), Pb (average 4100 mg/kg dw) and Zn (average 11 000 mg/kg dw). Large differences between average and median values indicated that the data was not normally distributed, ie the metals occur as discrete minerals (eg chalcopyrite, galena and sphalerite). The ocular classification indicated low carbonate content, chalcopyrite dominating over sphalerite and galena in most samples and an even distribution between pyrite and pyrrhotite. Both analytical and ocular mineral/rock classification data were combined into a common matrix that was evaluated using multivariate statistics. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed, for instance, that chromium and vanadium were mostly associated with harder minerals and rocks. PCA also indicated that a similar graphical picture could be obtained for chemical data and ocular mineral/rock classification data, respectively. The comparison indicates that ocular mineral/rock classification can replace or at least reduce the numbers of chemical analysis in health- based risk assessment of historical mine waste.

Jan 1, 2008

By O. D. Staman

The risk assessment project examines the likelihood of inorganic contaminants from copper dump-leaching operations to contaminate domestic water supplies. The project examines contaminant transport by modeling contaminant movement from the base of a leach pile through the unsaturated zone and into the saturated zone. The modeling effort is unique in that it models infiltration, contaminant transport in the unsaturated and saturated zone combined with geochemical modeling of the unsaturated zone. The project incorporates probability theory to reflect the uncertainty of hydrogeologic parameters.

Jan 1, 1994

By W Patton

Investment decisions in the mineral resources sector are made on the basis of an assessment of the economic potential for a mineral deposit. Given the supporting information for the location, scale, and quantity of the commodity of interest, miners and investors aim to make risk-informed decisions when considering further investment. The objective of resource classification is the synthesis of various types and quantities of geologic information used in resource model construction to assign confidence categories to the estimated mineral resources, which can then be used to support informed economic decisions. In this paper a risk-based classification scheme for iron ore mineral resources using conditional simulations is presented. The method involves categorisation of each block according to a confidence level, considering expected recoveries from a kriging model over mining production volumes. The realisations of the simulated model are used to assign risk-based confidence categories to zones of the ore deposit. One motivation for this work is to assess the sensitivity of the scheme to geologic uncertainties. Specifically, that which uncertainty in the layout of mineralising alterations and weathering overprints influence variabilities of associated rock properties and the likelihood of obtaining expected ore recoveries. It is shown these risks have material implications for a project’s economic potential. How the scheme can be extended to the grade control context and the value subsequent grade control activities is also quantified.

May 24, 2023

By Peter Fischer, Heinz-Jiirgen Kateloe, Anton Sroka, Axel Preusse

"Since mining in Germany has a long history, there are still many locations where the surface fracture problem has to be solved. Shallow mine workings from an earlier era can affect the surface in a discontinuous way. In many cases, due to light overburden load, those mine rooms did not collapse and a downfall can suddenly happen for many reasons, e.g., in connection with a changed load entry into the subsurface or by additional influence of water. This results in ground movements, which in extreme cases, appear as surface fractures.Depending on the use of the surface, ground movements caused in such a way constitute an endangerment by law. Particularly, within the southern Ruhr district, surface fracture and subsidence endangered ranges are determined on the basis of an empirical method that resulted from a systematic evaluation of surface fractures and rock disclosures. This method indicates maximum ranges within which impacts from abandoned shallow mine workings must be assumed.With a special emphasis on a risk management approach, RWTH Aachen University adapted the model of stochastic media to the conditions of abandoned shallow mining to compute and illustrate potential ground movements due to the collapse of shallow mine workings. Further investigations were concerned with the analysis of characteristic parameters which can serve for the assessment of the surface fracture probability in a comparative view of different cases. In recent years, more than 50 surface fractures in the southern Ruhr district were analyzed in order to develop a risk assessment of surface fracture endangered ranges over shallow mine workings. The results that have been obtained so far are described in this paper.INTRODUCTIONAbandoned underground mine workings of shallow depth can pose a threat to the surface. Due to small overburden rock loads, shallow excavations often remain intact for decades after the operations have ceased and may collapse abruptly (Braemer et al., 2005; Hollmann and Nuerenberg, 1972; Preusse et al., 2007). Several approaches for prognosis of surface fracture resulting from 97 subsurface collapse deal with this topic (Loebel and Sroka, 2001; Tajdus and Sroka, 2009)."

Jan 1, 2010

By R. K. Dunham, D. J. Reddish, X. L. Yao

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 10pp., 10 refs. The integrated approach combines a powerful ground movement prediction program with a knowledge-based expert system. ESDAS (Expert Structural Damage Assessment System) was developed to evaluate mining subsidence damage in the form of risk and in terms of the three vital contributing components (mining factors, site factors and structural factors). Using a certainty factor risk assessment technique, the system can be used to predict the likely damage to a particular structure subjected to mining subsidence. A previously developed powerful ground movement prediction program, SWIFT (Subsidence With Influence Function Techniques), has been combined with the expert system to allow the mining factor to be more accurately determined in a broader range of mining layout. Since SWIFT can be calibrated to any particular coal field using local subsidence data, it is believed that the integrated system could be used in any coal field worldwide for the assessment and control of mining subsidence damage risks

Dec 1, 1995

By Steve Kral

The list of environmental issues facing industry in general, and the mining industry in particular, has placed greater emphasis on the concept of risk assessment and risk management. In informal terms, risk can be defined as the chance of injury, loss or damage. More formally, it is defined as the probability of an occurrence and its consequences. In simple terms, risk assessment involves three questions: What can go wrong? How probable is it to go wrong? If it goes wrong, what are the consequences? Experts on the subject of risk assess¬ment and management met in St. Louis, MO in October 1992 to discuss the extensive and innovative technology that has been developed in this arena. Each agreed that a consistent framework can be used to approach risk assessment/ management considerations in siting and design alternatives, as well as when considering financial aspects of mine development. And the environmental planning process for mines, as well as planning for operation through closures, will rely more heavily on risk assessment and management techniques. Risk assessment is a tool to assist engineers, scientists and managers make better, defensible operational decisions. A realistic and probabilistic risk analysis, coupled with a sound financial model, can combine a large set of alternatives and criteria to arrive at a defensible decision. Organizers of this regional SME conference believe that mining professionals should become fully conversant with risk assessment techniques and approaches because this arena provides opportunities to develop more rational decision-making techniques. Current health risk assessments rely heavily on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approaches. Several speakers and papers show how this approach has been applied to a variety of topics. Two major advantages come forward when applying risk assessment techniques to environmental clean-up options for contaminated sites. They are the selection of practical options and cost-effective alternatives. A probabilistic risk assessment provides results that can be directly related to clean-up costs. It has been shown that small reductions in risk are obtained for large increases in cost after a certain threshold value is reached. A preferred, practical clean-up alternative that provides permanent solutions can be selected based on a probabilistic assessment. Here are summaries of some of the papers presented at the meeting.

Jan 1, 1993

By J L. Merritt

Effective minesite water management requires that this issue be treated as a risk management exercise. The management process is generally far from simple and by necessity must involve a range of personnel covering a siteÆs commercial, operational and environmental interests and responsibilities. The challenge to be collectively faced by these stakeholders is to strike the correct balance between risk and cost. On the other hand, the challenge to be faced by technical services support personnel is to provide stakeholders with information in a format that they can use with confidence. This paper presents the application of continuous operational simulation (OPSIM) modelling techniques to establish appropriate risk profiles for minesite operations. It is necessary that the format of these risk profiles be generic and equally applicable for defining the risk of occurrence for a relatively comprehensive range of activities û eg from of a non-compliant discharge, to the risk of failure to meet production targets. What is more, the profiles need to be quantitatively based and capable of reflecting change in system response to varied operational or management strategies. The techniques presented in this paper are based around a key assumption that long-term records of the climate contain within them sets of sequences that are representative of what can be expected in the future û that is, the droughts, floods, cyclones, good years and bad, long or short, and everything in between. Therefore, if these historical records are run through an OPSIM model for a particular site, then the simulated operational characteristics can be taken as being representative of what can be expected in the future, in the long-term. This lends itself to statistical analysis and translation into the required risk based format. Water Solutions Pty Ltd have been working with Capricorn Coal Management to develop a relatively comprehensive OPSIM model of their operations at German Creek Mine, Central Queensland. Outcomes from the modelling have been used in recent times to provide mine management with risk-based guidelines for both securing and containing mine water inventories. One of the more interesting tasks has been to establish risk based inventory levels that, if reached, would trigger the immediate implementation of a contract for the desalination and re-use of mine water, at predefined rates. Also, lead-time warning of the occurrence of a possible trigger is of importance to operational and commercial planning. To service this requirement the OPSIM model is regularly used to produce lead-time estimates to defined levels of confidence. Case studies of these, and other, applications of the OPSIM model at German Creek Mine are presented in this paper and serve to demonstrate an effective methodology for practical risked based water management.

Jan 1, 2003

By David J. Hatem, K. Bhattarai

The increasing popularity of alternative methods in delivery of underground infrastructure projects has given rise to innovative and collaborative contracting strategies to allocate and manage the unique risks associated with the work. This paper presents approaches and recent examples of how risk has been dealt with using various alternative delivery methods, including Progressive Design Build (PDB) and Construction Manager/General Contractor (CM/GC). Based on the experience gained from these examples, recommendations for an innovative and collaborative risk baselining approach using contingency sharing are presented that should advance the overall goals of equitable risk sharing and compensation.

Jun 13, 2023

By K. Komnitsas

Activities in the mixed sulphides industry, such as mining and beneficiation, cause adverse impacts to the environment due to excavation, treatment and disposal of low-grade ores and tailings containing residual sulphide minerals. The greatest impact is caused by the oxidation of sulphide phases contained in the tailings and waste rock and the subsequent production of leachates characterized by low pH and high concentration of heavy and toxic elements and sulphates, called acid mine drainage, that contaminates soils, surface- and groundwater. Therefore, rehabilitation of these sites is required in order to render these pollution sources inactive and minimize environmental impacts. The calculation of risk, based on acid mine drainage probability and magnitude of consequences at the disposal sites offers engineers, environmental scientists and authorities a valuable tool for the selection and application of the best remediation technology. Several parameters, such as the chemical and mineralogical properties of the wastes, the most probable pathways the contaminants follow, the potential receptors and the exposure scenarios have to be taken into account. Therefore, risk is the most critical parameter in decision-making regarding management of mining wastes and rehabilitation of disposal sites.

Jan 1, 2002

By Greg Wieland

Deep sewer tunnels are required to meet future growth demands of the City of Austin?s down-town redevelopment. The tunnel is 18,000 ft long and varies in finished diameter from 54 inches to 96 inches. The tunnel crosses under Austin?s Town Lake three times and there are four main work shaft sites. Geology, groundwater, foundations, downtown redevelopment, and an active, healthy community put significant constraints on the design. This paper discusses a major underground project for downtown Austin and discusses the risk considerations and the opportunities the design team took toward optimizing the project design for the construction phase.

Jan 1, 2008

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

By Limao Zhang

This paper presents a BIM-based Risk Identification Expert System (B-RIES) for metro construction, composed of three main built-in subsystems: BIM extraction, knowledge base management, and risk identification subsystems. The engineering parameter information related to risk factors is extracted from the BIM of a specific project where the IFC standard plays a bridge role between the BIM data and metro construction safety risks. An integrated knowledge base, consisting of fact base, rule base and case base, is established to systematize the fragmented explicit and tacit knowledge. A hybrid inference approach, with case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning included, is developed to improve the flexibility and comprehensiveness of the system reasoning capacity. During the safety risk identification process, B-RIES is able to improve the inefficiencies in engineering information extraction, reduce the dependence on domain experts, and facilitate knowledge sharing and communication among dispersed clients and domain experts. A typical safety hazard identification in the Mingdu station, located in the Wuhan Metro Line Two, is presented in a case study. The results demonstrate the feasibility of B-RIES, and its application potential. B-RIES can be used as a decision support tool to provide guidelines for safety management in metro construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment.

Aug 1, 2013

Paper presented at the UK minerals industry conference and published in: Minerals extraction towards the millennium. UK minerals industry conference, 3-5 April 1995, University of Leeds. London: Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, 1995. The various types of risks that arise in minerals industry projects are usually financial, technical, or environmental, and the key to valid risk analysis is complete integration of all risks, both within and between categories. Geographical information systems (GIS) and geostatistical simulation methods can provide a means of integrating data and conducting realistic risk analyses. Risk can be quantified but there are limitations to numerical approaches to risk assessment. Realistic quantification requires adequate models of the processes that give rise to risk. Risk perception must also be taken into account when conducting risk assessment and reporting the results, especially in public forums. The modelling and visualisation capabilities of a combined GIS/simulation system can provide the means of dealing with perception in risk analysis

Jun 19, 1905