Risk assessment applied to coal tonnage estimation in the United Kingdom

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 20pp., 31 refs. Estimates of coal tonnage on UK open cast mining sites often vary from the recoverable tonnage. This is because the estimates depend on the geological variability of the coal measures. Geological parameters, such as thickness, quality and disturbance of the seam, have a direct control upon this variance. Risk analysis techniques have been applied using commercially available software to combine each parameter's variability into a cumulative variance, resulting in a tonnage distribution. Sensitivity modelling has also been used to identify the geological parameters which have the largest influence on the variance of the simulated tonnage distribution. An understanding of the relationship between the tonnage and geological variability has helped to focus exploration more efficiently. A cost to risk relationship can now be monitored, helping management to avoid negative consequences on site