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E. D. TILLYER,* Southbridge, Mass. (written discussion?).-It is quite generally known that there is very little that is standard about a mercurial thermometer at temperatures above 212° F. (100° C.) because so many precautions must be taken-precautions that are rarely realized in practice-such as depth of immersion, aging, elastic fatigue, separation of mercury column, and accidental deformation from very slight excess temperature. One cannot help wishing that Mr. Brown would dwell at greater length on the practical side of both radiation and optical pyrometey, both of which have great possibilities as commercial instruments. In the radiation pyrometer we have ideal conditions for a permanent instru-ment, no materials being exposed to excessive temperatures or subjected to contamination from the furnace fumes which may raise such havoc with an ordinary pyrometer. The development of a radiation pyrometer requires a thermocouple having a relatively high electromotive force but which need stand temperatures of only 200° F. or 300° F. instead of 1500 to 2000° F., which is required of even a base-metal couple. The galva-nometer, if located near the thermocouple, does not need to have a high resistance as at such low temperatures no changes can occur in the thermocouple that will affect its resistance and, consequently, the in-dicated temperature.

Jan 11, 1919

By Y. L. Su, R. Stefanko, Y. J. Wang

This chapter describes a new approach to the solution of stress distribution around underground openings utilizing the finite element method and employing stochastically simulated rock properties. It is well-known from extensive laboratory tests that the properties of rocks, e.g., Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio, are not single-valued but form some distribution. If the scatter of test data is attributed to the variability of the rock itself rather than due to an inadequacy in test procedure, then stress solutions have to consider these variations. Utilizing this basic philosophy, the present study was initiated. A long circular opening subjected to plane strain in a hydrostatic stress field was chosen as a specific example to illustrate this approach. The technique adopted in solving stress distributions was based on the finite element method. This method is essentially a generalization of standard structural analysis procedures in which the continuum is idealized as an assemblage of "elements," interconnected at a finite number of nodal points. It is capable therefore of handling different material properties for individual elements in the model, if desired. In this study, each individual element was assumed to be isotropic, homogeneous, and elastic. However, values for Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio were randomly varied from element to element according to an assumed frequency distribution.

Jan 1, 1970

By AIME AIME

LOCAL COMMITTEES. EXECUTIVE.-W. A. Lathrop, Chairman; R. V. Norris, Secretary; S. D. Warriner, Treasurer; Irving A.. Stearns, W. J. Richards, H. S. Drinker, C. D. Simpson. GENERAL RECEPTION.-Irving A. Stearns, Chairman. Archibald, James, Jr., Pottsville. Lawall, E. H., Wilkes-Barre. Ashley, H. H., Wilkes-Barre. Lentz, W. 0., Mauch Chunk. Ayres, WV. S., Hazleton. Lewis, Albert, Bear Creek. Beard, J. T., Scranton. Loomis, W. H., Jeddo. Bridgman, J. C., Wilkes-Barre. Markle, Alvan, Hazleton. Bunting, Douglas, Wilkes-Barre. Markle, John, Jeddo. Chase, F. M., Wilkes-Barre. Neale, J. B., Minersville. Coroner, Eli T., Scranton. Norris, R. V., Wilkes-Barre. Cote, E. B., Jr., Drifton. Oliver, Paul A., Oliver's Mills. Davies, W. H., Hazleton. Owens, W. D., Pittston. Davis, H. G., Dorranceton. Pardee, 1. P., Hazleton. Dodge, W. F., Wilkes-Barre. Quin, R. A., Wilkes-Barre.

Jul 1, 1911

By P. H. Dudley

The present paper was suggested by the paper read by Mr. R. W. Hunt at the New York Meeting, in February last, on rail-sections (Trans., xvii., p. 778)) in the discussion of which I brought forward some of the facts and observations here stated. Professional duties having prevented me from writing out my part of that discussion in time for its publication in the volume containing Mr. Hunt's paper, I take the opportunity to present it in separate form and greater fulness. The striking features of the series of rail-sections submitted by Mr. Hunt are their shallow heads and heavy bases. In these respects they are quite similar to the section of the 80-1b. rail, which I designed in 1883 to meet the requirements of the traffic of the New York Central and Hudson River Railroad. Before the adoption of the 80-1b. rail, this road had modified its 65-1b. section from a shallow head with rounding sides and quite heavy base to one having a deep head and thin base. All the leading railroads had changed from the earlier sections of steel rails to those having deep heads and thin bases, conforming to the recommendations of the Committee on Rails of the American Society of Civil Engineers. It is but proper to say that the committee's investigations upon the wear of rails were made upon the rails manufactured under a practice quite different from that which obtained after the committee's recommendations were carried into effect. The results in actual service have been contrary to what was expected. Fig. 1 shows my 80-1b. section of 1883. Before designing this rail I had taken, at different times, a series of diagrams of the condition of tracks, with my car, on the New York Central and Hudson River Railroad, all of the New England railroads, and all but one of the trunk lines. My diagrams gave me an opportunity which could not otherwise have been obtained to see the wear of great numbers of sections of rails under widely varying conditions of traffic.

Jan 1, 1890

The following is an incomplete list of members and guests who called at Institute headquarters during the period Apr. 10, 1919, to May 10, 1919. Arthur K. Adams, Spencer, Mass. Ensign Floyd D. James, U. S. S. Fulton. W. T. Bates, New York City, N. Y. J. Harry Johns, Thorsden, Woking, A. D. Brokaw, Washington, D. C. England. E. H. Clausen, San Francisco, Calif. W. F. Jones, Rock Springs, Wyo. W. M. Corse, Mansfield, Ohio. E. L. Lasier, Washington, D. C. E. O. Daue, Philadelphia, Pa. John M. Lovejoy, New Rochelle, N. Y. G. D. Dub, Washington,, D. C. 2d Lieut. James F. Magee, Lancaster, S. B. Eaton, Dover, N. J. Pa., Sherman Eaton, Smethport, N. C. Ernest Marquardt, Casper, Wyo. J. A. Endweiss, La Jolla, Calif. Geo. B. Marshall, Abangarez, Costa Edgar W. Engle, North Chicago, Ill. Rica. 2d Lieut. Maxwell E. Erdofy, New York Benj. L. Miller, So. Bethlehem, Pa. City, N. Y. Major Desaix B. Myers, Camp Mills. Chas. A. Fellencer, Allentown, Pa. Edmund Newton, New York City, N. Y. Arthur Feust, Joplin, Mo. Seely B. Patterson, Jr., Allentown, Pa. Ensign Harold P. Ford, U. S. S. Radnor. Wm. R. Pearson, New York City, N. Y. A. D. R. Galloway, Accra, West Africa. Harold C. Price, Langeloth, Pa. R. C. Gosrow, Milwaukee, Wis. T. C. Roberts, East. Orange, N. J. C. A. Grabill, El Paso, Tex. P. H. Royster, Washington, D. C. Hobart A. Hanks, San Francisco, Calif. W. H. Staver, New York City, N. Y. John L. Henning, Lake Charles, La. N. L. Wimmler, Bangkok, Siam. 1st Lieut. J. Parke Hook, Philadelphia, Capt. Jay P. Wood, New York City, Pa. N. Y. An item in the May Bulletin made it appear that Frank W. DeWolf had just become connected with the State Geological Survey of Illinois. This was one of the inadvertences of war. Mr. De Wolf has been Director, or Chief, of the State Geological Survey for approximately ten years. Through the courtesy of the Governor of Illinois, lie was loaned to the Bureau of Mines for about seven months, after which period he resumed his former position.

Jan 6, 1919

By L. Adler

Analysis of a mine roof can be based on fixed-end beam behavior. The author here analyzes the effects of zero restraint at deflecting beam supports. Formulae are given for determining permissible support deflections. Analysis of a mine roof in a bedded deposit usually follows the assumption that the behavior of the roof is analogous to a beam with both ends fixed. Yet it is recognized that the end restraint itself varies with the thickness of cover, so that at shallow depth the restraint is minimum, and at great depth, maximum.' Consequently, an analysis on the basis of fixed ends or full restraint represents only one extreme in the possible range of conditions. Since the actual amount of restraint is difficult to ascertain, a more rational approach is to consider the two extreme cases of end restraint. Such situations regarding uncertainty of the restraining effects of supports are not uncommon in structural analysis, and are handled in a like manner.' Since previous studies9)4 have dealt with full restraint, this paper will analyze the effects of zero restraint at deflecting beam supports. In such a case a mine roof with several intermediate supports becomes analogous to a uniformly loaded continuous beam on simple supports, as shown in Fig. 1A. Such a structure is statically indeterminate to a degree equal to the number of intermediate supports, n. Therefore, with the three equilibrium equations, n additional equations are needed. A number of methods exist to analyze this problem, but The Theorem of Three Moments is Simplest. The continuous beam is divided at each support into a sequence of simply supported single span beams, with the unknown end moments, as appears in Fig. 1B. Continuity requires that the common ends of adjacent beams have the same slope (Fig. 1C). eiB= B(i+l)~= ei(i+l)and MiB= Mti+I)A= Mi(i+i). [1I A Glossary of all terms is given in Table I. Furthermore, if we first consider that the supports do not deflect, the slope at a support is the sum of the slopes due to each of the individual loads shown in Fig. 2, yielding:

Jan 1, 1961

By K. Tangri, B. Swaroop

Simultaneous measurements of lattice (elastic) strain by X-ray line shift method and total strain with an electrical strain gage have been carried out on polycrystalli,ne nickel with the help of a specially designed tensometer attachment for the X-ray dif-fractometer. During the initial stages of deformation, the rate of increase in lattice strain closely follows the total strain until the plastic strain sets in. From then onwards, the two strains deviate from each other and with further increase in afiplied stress the rate of increase of lattice strain eventually decreases. Depending upon the mode of unloading, both compressive and tensile strains have been observed in nickel deformed up to 0.29 pct strain. These results have been explained on the basis of the effects of clustering of dislocations and also the production and behavior of point defects during loading and unloading, respectively. POLYCRYSTALS deformed plastically in a uniaxial tension test show residual lattice strains (hereafter referred to as RLS), which broaden the X-ray line profiles and shift their peak positions.''4 It is known that uniform straining of a crystal lattice (macrostrain) produced movement of ddfraction line peaks, whereas nonuniform straining (microstrain) causes line broadening.= Though the nature and origin of RLS in deformed metals is not yet clearly understood, these are believed to be due to the presence of some form of a locked-up stress system. Several possible detailed interpretations6'" of the stress system have been proposed by various workers and common to all these interpretations is the assumption that different parts of the aggregate have different tensile yield stresses; e.g., that a part A yields under a lower applied stress than a part B. Therefore, during the deformation process, the elastic strain in A will be less than that in B, and, after completion of deformation, B will tend to contract further than A but will be prevented from doing so by the restraining influence of A. Thus, when equilibrium is reached, A will be in compression while B is in tension. Although there is general agreement on the correctness of this argument, controversy still exists as to the exact nature of the parts A and B in a deformed metal. In an alternative approach to the creation of parts A and B, many other investigators have assumed that the RLS observed in unloaded specimens are in some way connected with the lack of proportionality between lattice strain and applied stress in the region above the yield stress." cullity13 has prepared a schematic summary of the results of previous workers, mainly Smith and Wood,2'11 which suggests that, above the elastic limit, the lattice strain may increase less rapidly with respect to strain, or may even decrease with increase in applied stress. If the applied stress is then decreased, the lattice strain would decrease along a line parallel to the loading line in the elastic region and thus produce a compressive residual lattice strain after unloading. At equilibrium, to balance these compressive stresses? there would have to be regions under tensile stress which may well be the grain boundaries or the substructure walls formed during deformation. The present investigation was undertaken to gain a better understanding of the nature and origin of RLS and also to experimentally verify the salient features of this hypothesis. EXPERIMENTAL Stress and strain determinations were made with a specially constructed tensometer attachment for the X-ray diffractometer, Fig. 1: which permits the following measurements simultaneously on a sheet specimen under uniaxial tension at various stress levels during loading and unloading: a) lattice strains, E=. in a direction perpendicular to the direction of pulling (x direction) from shifts in X-ray line peak positions; b) the total strain, ex, in the direction of pulling. with the help of an electrical strain gage affixed to the back of the specimen directly below the area irradiated by X-rays: and c) the applied stress, with the help of a load cell which consisted of a calibrated stainless-steel sample of dimensions identical to those of the specimen under investigation, and to which it was coupled. Because of its high stacking fault energy.I4 nickel

Jan 1, 1970

By AIME AIME

THE list of deaths reported during the year 1904 comprises the following names (the figures in parentheses indicate the year in which the persons named were elected to membership). Honorary Members.-Sir Lowthian Bell, Dr. Thomas M. Drown. Members and Associates.-Jacob Neff Barr (1884), John Walter Best (1899), A. Poyntz Blandy (1903), A. Cass Canfield (1876), William E. Carroll (1901), William E. C. Coxe (1874), Russell W. Davenport (1877), Isidor Davidov (1893), Louis M. Davis (1884), Edward Doerr (1897), Edward M. Ferguson (1878), C. Le Neve Foster (1893), Geo. Clinton Gardner (1878), Wm. J. Harris (1871), Richard P. Heckscher (1893), H. D. Hoskold (1.894), Wm. S. Hungerford (1882), Edwd. K. Landis, (1882), August Lengemann (1902), Wm. M. Lippitt (1900), Henry McCalley (1888), Robert J. McCartney (1897), Arthur McClellan (1871), Arthur S. Mahony (1888), Philip W. Moen (1888), Henry G. Morse (1881), Charles Parkin (1875), Clarence V. Page (1900), Rubens P. Patterson (1886), Henry Paul (1889), W. H. Pettee (1871), James B. Randol (1879), Irving H. Sevier (1904), Win. J. Sims (1902), John H. Slavens (1901), Chas. B. Squier (1886), Chas. W. Stickney (1891), Homer H. Swaney (1903), Walter B. Wilson (1892), Whittaker Wright, The following paragraphs, constituting the concluding portion of the Annual Report of the Council for 1904, have been withheld from publication until now, in order to make them as accurate and complete as possible. Jacob Neff Barr, a mechanical engineer of note, died on May 5, 1904. Being especially interested in railroad work, he invented the Barr contracting-chill process of casting car-wheels,

Jul 1, 1905

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCAL SECTION Executive Committee SEELEY W. MUDD, Chairman C. COLCOCK JUNES, Vice-Chairman FREDERICK J. H. MERRILL, Secretary-Treasurer, 631. Higgins Bldg., Los Angeles, Cal. Ralph ARNOLD A. B. CARPENTER The Second Annual Meeting of the Southern California Local Section of the American Institute of Mining Engineers was held at 300 Germain Bldg. on June 18, 1915, at 8 P.M. Present were: Messrs. C. Colcock Jones, Carpenter; Merrill, Baumgarten, Staunton, Hodges, Holland, and Durell. In the absence of the Chairman; Mr. Jones presided. The tellers appointed to canvass the vote for Section officers reported 45 ballots cast. The following gentlemen were announced as duly elected to the several. . offices: Chairman, SEELEY W. MUDD, Vice-Chairman, C. COLCOCK JONES, Secretary-Treasurer, F. J. H. MERRILL, Members of Executive Committee, RALPH ARNOLD A. B. CARPENTER

Jan 8, 1915

(Members are, urged to send in for this column any notes of interest concerning themselves or their fellow-members.) Members and guests who registered at Institute headquarters during the period April 10 to May 10; I. N. Knapp, Ardmore, Pa. E. P. Mathewson, Anaconda, Mont. Herbert B. Cox, New York, N. Y. H. B. Barling, New York, N. Y. A. McLintock, Brooklyn, N. Y. M. M. Thompson, Morsemere, N. J. Heinrich Ries, Ithaca, N. Y. Howland Bancroft, Denver, Colo. R. M. Catlin, Franklin Furnace, N. J. John H. Adams, Birmingham, Ala. Percy E. Barbour, Candor, N. C. Henry D. Boddington, London, England. A. D. R. Galloway, Qruro, Bolivia. William J. Cox, Denver, Colo. M. K. Rodgers, Westgate, Cal. W. J. Morrison, Toronto, Canada. W. J. Richards has been elected President of the Reading. Coal & Iron Co., succeeding the late George F. Baer.

Jan 6, 1914

*J. H. Brennan, Union Carbide Metals Company, Niagara Falls, N. Y. S. B. Casey, Jr., Swindell-Dressier Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pa. C. M. Cosman, Vanadium Corporation of America, New York, N. Y. H. E. Dunn, Vanadium Corporation of America, New York, N. Y. C. S. Finney, Eastern Gas and Fuel Associates, Boston, Mass. M. O. Holowaty, Inland Steel Company, East Chicago, Ind. John Mitchell, Eastern Gas and Fuel Associates, Boston, Mass. Leo F. Reinarts, Armco Steel Corporation, Middletown, Ohio H. E. Rowan, Dwight-Lloyd Division, McDowell Company, Inc., Cleveland, Ohio R. W. Shearman, The Metallurgical Society of AIME, New York, N. Y. C. M. Squarcy, Inland Steel Company, East Chicago, Ind. F. Weston Starratt, The Metallurgical Society of AIME, New York, N. Y. A. B. Wilder, National Tube Division, United States Steel Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pa. *Deceased

Jan 1, 1961

At the Second Pan-American Scientific Congress, meeting in Washington, D. C., from Dec. 27, 1915 to Jan. 8, 1916, the following special topics will be discussed in each of the four sub-sections of Section VII, of which Hennen Jennings is Chairman: A. Mining.-The mining law of each country and the changes that may be made to aid the development of mineral resources. History of the mining industry in each country with reference to the beginnings of that industry. The development of the Patio process. Bibliography of mining. B. Metallurgy.-Present methods of concentrating ores and the development of concentration methods. International relations in the exchange of ores and metals. Bibliography of metallurgy. A. and B. Mining and Metallurgy.-Development of hydro-electric power for mining and metallurgy, the amount probably available, and specific benefits from its utilization.

Jan 1, 1916

The first meeting of the Naval Consulting Board was held at the office of the Secretary of the Navy, Washington, D. C., on Oct. 6, 1915. The Board organized by electing Thomas A. Edison, Chairman, Peter Cooper Hewitt, First Vice-Chairman, William L. Saunders, Second Vice-Chairman, and Thomas. Robins, Secretary. All of these officers are members of the American Institute of Mining Engineers. The other members of the Board are given below, and those who are members of the Institute are marked with an asterisk: *W. R. WHITNEY MATTHEW B. SELLERS. L. H. BAEKELAND. HUDSON MAXIM. FRANK JULIAN SPRAGUE. HOWARD T. COFFIN. BENJAMIN C. LAMME. ANDREW J. RIKER. R. S. WOODWARD. HENRY A. WISE WOOD ARTHUR GORDON WEBSTER. ELMER A. SPERRY. A. M. HUNT. *BENJAMIN B. THAYER. ALFRED CRAVEN. *J. W. RICHARDS. *SPENCER MILLER. *LAWRENCE ADDICKS. WILLIAM LE Roy EMMETT.

Jan 12, 1915

The following officers and committee chairmen were elected: Honorary Chairman, Herbert Hoover; Chairman, Elmer A. Sperry, New York; Vice-Chairman and Chair-man of the Executive Committee, John W. Lieb, New York; Vice-Chairman, C. E. Grunsky (Pacific Coast), San Francisco; C. F. Kettering (Middle West), Detroit; Execu-tive Secretary, Maurice Holland; Executive Committee: Gano Dunn, George W. Fuller, Maurice Holland, Frank B. Jewett, John W. Lieb, H. J. McGraw, Calvin W. Rice, W. E. Wickenden, all of New York; Dugald C. Jackson, Cambridge, Mass.; 0. C. Merrill, Washington, D. C.; Charles F. Scott, New Haven, Conn.; Elmer A. Sperry, Brooklyn, N. Y.; Finance Committee. John W. Lieb; Technical Program Committee: D. C. Jackson; Transporta-tion Committee: F. B. Jewett; Entertainment Committee: 0. C. Merrill; Publicity: J. H. McGraw; Promotion and Attendance: George W. Fuller.

Jan 5, 1928

By J. J. Marcus

Mineral industry decision-makers are frequently required to select between competing equipment. Various criteria and methods are currently being used, and this writer would like to suggest a method recently tested on two large power shovels in an open pit mine. An initial examination of both shovel A and shovel B indicated that the latter should give the best overall results. since: 1) It swings 13% faster; 2) it carries a dipper with 23%: greater capacity; 3) purchase price is 8.6% lower; 4) shovel weight is 12.5% greater; 5) it has considerably greater bail pull under most operating conditions; 6) the electric controls are of a more modern design. However, shovel B has half the service life. With these points in mind, shovel A was selected by The Buckingham Method, an operations research technique.

Jan 9, 1965

(The following list contains the names of those members of the Institute of whose connection with military service we have only recently become acquainted; it also includes the names of a few who have recently been promoted or transferred, indicated by a *. A complete list was published in the Year Book, issued as a supplement of the Bulletin for March, 1915.) ADAMS, ARTHUR K., Lieut., Co. 2, E. 0. T. S., Camp Humphreys, Va. AMIDON, CLAUDE E., 11th Training Co., Casual Camp, Camp Cody, N. M *BARBOUR, P. E., Capt., Engineer Corps, U. S. A. *BENHAM, W. M., Master Engr., Headquarters Dept., 115th Engrs. A. E. F., Care Postmaster, N. Y. BICKNELL, H. L., Pvt., Co. D, 27th Engrs., Camp Leach, D. C. *BLANDY, S. H. B., Lieut., Royal Horse Artillery, B. E. F.

Jan 10, 1918

F. G. SMITH, Waterbury, Conn.-I would like to ask whether small amounts of iron give the maximum resistance at a low temperature, and if the large amounts of iron raise the temperature at which the maximum resistance occurs? That is, with a small amount of iron, will a maximum be at, say, 10°? F. E. BASH.-With the small amount of iron, the maximum is at a lower temperature, and with the increase of iron, the maximum increases; it seems to come to a maximum and then decrease; that is, increasing the iron up to a certain value increases the temperature at which there is a maximum of resistance, and any increase of iron beyond that value will start decreasing this temperature. With 2 per cent. of iron, the maximum is lower than for 1.5 per cent. which was the value that we found to be satisfactory. F. L. DRIVER,* Jr., Harrison, N. J.-I would like to ask what chance there is of the instrument companies getting together and deciding on standards for both manganin and constantan? We make both of these alloys in this country and we find that each one of the instrument com-panies who buy these materials require different standards of specific electrical resistance and thermal e.m.f. For instance, some of our cus-tomers require an electrical resistance in manganin or therlo of 240 ohms per circular mil foot and others require it with a specific electrical resist-ance of 270 ohms per circular mil foot. They buy these alloys in relatively small quantities so that it means much extra melting and supervision when making up small quantities for each consumer. If something could be. clone to eliminate this, it would be a benefit to the instrument com-panies, who could secure their material more cheaply, and to the manu-facturers, who would not have to spend so much time and effort in special manufacturing.

Jan 12, 1919

By Jacob T. Wainwright

This stove has been designed to meet the requirements of a fur nave that must be operated with either a reducing or a neutral flame ; and more particularly to make feasible the operating of re duction-furnaces with the cheaper grades of gas-fuel, which has heretofore been impracticable. In general, cheap gas-fuels result from incomplete combustion, and, being suited for further combustion, answer very well for heat ing purposes; and high temperatures may be attained with them, when they are used in conjunction with regenerative stoves. But, in operating a reduction-furnace, a high temperature is not the only requirement. It is also necessary that the fuel shall not be cansumed beyond a certain degree, in order to insure a re ducing flame for the reduction-process ; consequently, it becomes necessary to dispense with combustion as much as possible previous to the use of the fuel-gases in the reduction-furnace. Moreover, these gases must be preheated to a high degree, in order that a sufficient temperature may be maintained in the furnace; and, since this preheating cannot be accomplished by a previous, partial combustion of the gases themselves, it follows that the stoves for pre heating these gases should be heated to as high degree as it is pos sible to attain with an inferior fuel. This result can best be accom plished by complete combustion of the heating gases, and is further facilitated by preheating all of the air and gas used for this com plete combustion. It is more particularly desirable to preheat the air, since the combustible gases used may generally be obtained directly from the furnace, or gas-producer. The reducing gases, escaping from a gas-fuel reduction-furnace, are capable of considerable further dilution with air to secure com plete combustion, and consequently may be utilized for heating the stove to a high temperature, provided the air be sufficiently preheated.

Jan 1, 1889

By Norman D. Fitz Gerald

THE growth of domestic requirements for motor fuel has been phe-nomenal, rising year after year in a fashion almost unique among com-modities, resisting depressions and forging rapidly ahead in times of prosperity. Consumption advanced from 226 millions of barrels in 1925 to 522 millions of barrels in 1938; or 130 per cent. The economic influ-ences generating and sustaining this demand are of vital concern to the petroleum industry. The general factors affecting utilization of motor fuel are well known but it is the purpose of this paper to employ the recently developed technique of economic dynamics to describe them mathematically. Such problems in economic analysis are complicated by the freedom of all the variables to fluctuate, their mutual interdependence, changing incidence upon one another, and the nonquantitative character of some of them. Economic quantities and relationships, unlike those of the physical world, are continuously changing and this dynamic characteristic is both a distinguishing and confusing feature in economic research. The com-plexities of the problems require application of the analytical devices of mathematical statistics to uncover the probable relationships between factors. The procedure employed is to formulate a logical relationship linking the dependent to the independent variables, and then simul-taneously, rather than sequentially, determine their separate effects by multiple correlation. This transformation of common knowledge to quantitative terms makes it possible to measure the probable effects of changing conditions upon requirements, assisting in the sound interpreta-tion of economic policies. The utility of the results of such dynamic analysis is in sharp contrast to the sterility of the trends and other simple empiricisms of descriptive statistics. It is not intended in this study to throw light on the reasons why any motor fuel at all is consumed; but to discover relationships explaining why more was consumed at one time than at another. Specifically the prob-lem is confined to the measurement of the influences of statistically

Jan 1, 1940

By Robert Glass Cleland

[George B. Agnew Cleveland H. Dodge James Douglas E. Hayward Ferry Francis L. Hine Arthur Curtiss James1908-1941 1908-1926 1908-1918 1908-1935 1908-1927 1908-1941]

Jan 1, 1952