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By Li Changgen, A. Bahr

The adaptability of pneumatic flotation cells for the flotation of sulfide ore and the conditions for sulfide ore flotation in pneumatic cells were investigated. The advantages of pneumatic flotation cells over mechanical flotation cells, as well as flotation columns, for the flotation of sulfide ore were demonstrated. Test results indicated that the Cu grade and recovery for concentrates obtained when using the pneumatic flotation cell were 1 % to 2% and 4%, respectively, higher than those obtained when using the mechanical flotation machine.

Jan 1, 1993

By T. M. Yegulalp

A numerical model is being developed to assess the enhancement of permeability by improved fracture connectivity by micro-hydrofracturing. A generic two-dimensional percolation model has been developed to test the impact of various field conditions on permeability. Field data from Cyprus Minerals' Mineral Park Mine has been used to establish statistical properties of the observed fracture systems. Results of statistical anlyses of the field data and examples of the use of percolation model are presented.

Jan 1, 1995

By J. A. L. Campbell

Peabody's Camoy mining system is a truly continuous conceptual method of underground mining of coal. The system solves the three factors which limit coal from being mined continuously. Camoy's principal features are improved productivity and increased recovery. A conservative retreat production rate of 2 1/2 times normal continuous miner room-and-pillar mining rates are projected for a 6-7' seam. Overall mine productivity will be 2 times normal, with a potential for considerably higher rates. Major incremental production increases can be achieved by partial implementation of the system. Total mine recoveries of 75% are expected. The system includes both advance and retreat mining. The retreat half of the approach encompasses many of the features of short wall mining. A central panel is prepared for retreat mining by driving entries using room-and-pillar mining to the left and right of it. The room-and-pillar mining encompasses the advance features of Camoy. In the retreat phase, the roof of the face is supported by self advancing chocks or shields. All mining is done under the chocks by a continuous miner. As the miner advances the chocks continuously move forward behind it. Thus, as in a typical short wall system, continuous roof support is attained. Ventilation is unidirectional, another characteristic of short-wall type systems. Fresh air is brought in and passed over the working personnel. It moves to the face where the continuous miner is operating, picks up the generated dust and released methane, and is exhausted away from all personnel. Exposure to respirable dust and ignition hazards due to methane build-ups are almost totally eliminated. Thus, the second limiting factor is overcome and continuous ventilation is attained. Coal mined with the continuous miner is passed to a surge car and then to a Serpentix conveyor. The Serpentix, a Peabody invention, is a flexible conveyor capable of going around corners.

Jan 1, 1976

By I. Michalakis

A geological and geophysical study was con-ducted at the area of Stylos, Hania in order to study the possible mechanisms of saltwater contamination. A new detailed geologic map in scale 1:5,000 was combined with the results of a time lapse geophysical survey using seismic and electrical methods. A fault system in the N-NE direction possibly favors the saltwater intrusion.

Jan 1, 2006

By Eugene F. Casey, John G. Ruggiero

INTRODUCTION Construction of tunnels in urban areas, especially reclaimed areas, pose many problems. The Red Hook Intercepting Sewer Tunnel, Contract 1A is a portion of the Red Hook Water Pollution Control Project located along the Brooklyn waterfront in New York City. This contract required the construction of a 2620 meter long (8600 L.F.), 3 meter (10-foot) diameter soft ground tunnel, eight Tunnel Manholes, nine Regulator structures, four Diversion and Tidegate structures and 765 meters (2500 L.F.) of branch intercepting sewers of diameters between .30 meters (12 inches) and 1.8 meters (72 inches). The construction contract bid price was $62 million with a duration of three years. The tunnel route crosses over five sets of operational twin cast iron subway tubes with clearances ranging from 4.3 meters (14 feet) to as small as 0.35 meters (14 inches). The route of the tunnel traverses historically interesting areas which have been reclaimed over the last 200 years. This paper is a case history describing the contractor's methods utilized to successfully advance the work through the above problem areas. LOCATION The Red Hook Intercepting Sewer Tunnel is located in the Borough of Brooklyn of New York City. The route is

Jan 1, 1981

By Mike Costello

The gold mines operating within the Newcrest Group, Boddington (20% owned), New Celebration, Ora Banda and Telfer, have accumulated many years of operating experience. Cell designs and operating methods include both steel wool and woven stainless steel and plating practices cover electrowin, electrorefine, normal' recirculation and pass out modes. Besides gold the solutions contain reasonable quantities of silver, copper and nickel.

Jan 1, 1995

By John E. Litz

Since the 1974 introduction of catalytic converters to automobiles in the United States, more than 150,000 kg (5,000,000 oz) of platinum, palladium, and rhodium have been used in the converters. An estimated 8 to 10 million converters are being used annually in the United States, each containing from $5 to $15 of PGM metals. In addition, use of converters is beginning in Europe which will significantly increase the quantity of PGM used. Two basic types of catalysts for converters are being used: pellet and monolithic. The pellets are small, discrete spheres or cylinders of gamma-alumina coated with platinum group metals, Figure 1. The monolithic are honeycombs of a cordierite, A13(Mg,Fe)2Si5AlO18, base coated with gamma-alumina and subsequently with platinum group metals, Figure 2. Pellet catalysts are being used by General Motors and American Motors; whereas Ford and Chrysler are using monolithic catalysts. The table below compares the PGM content and value of the catalysts.

Jan 1, 1986

By J. DeYoung

Weak demand for metals and consequent low metal prices resulted in continuation of the depressed state of US mineral exploration activity through 1983. Data collected by Resources for the Future Inc. and The Pennsylvania State University for a cooperative study on mineral exploration activity indicate that US exploration in 1983 fell by as much as 25% from 1982 levels. Precious metals remained the focus of most exploration efforts, as gold and silver prices remained attractive compared to base metals. Reports of 1983 domestic exploration and development activities in several industry journals indicates that about 85% to 90% of those projects were directed primarily at gold and silver. Gold exploration included work by several companies on Carlin- type disseminated gold deposits in Nevada, geological prospecting and drilling in the Wenatchee Gold Belt in Washington, and interest in lode and placer gold properties in California, especially by several small Canadian firms. Precious metals exploration projects were also reported in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. There was also tome precious metal exploration activity in the eastern US. Development continued at the Ropes gold mine near Ishpeming, MI, and companies explored historic gold-producing areas in the Southeast. Some exploration for nonprecious metals took place last year. Stratabound copper-silver deposits were examined in western Montana, and US Borax continued exploring molybdenum resources in the Misty Fjords area in Alaska. Work on these projects during 1983 may have been stimulated by time limits on the availability of certain federal lands for exploration more than by projected improvements in metal markets. During 1983, several papers were published on mineral exploration strategies and the future of US exploration. David Watson of Raymond Kaiser Engineers, in a paper presented at the 1983 AMC Mining Convention, forecast increased exploration activity for gold and silver because of world economic conditions. He added that antimony, manganese, chromium, graphite, mercury, tantalum, tin, and barite are also likely targets based on their limited domestic reserve availability. He cited concern over reported subsidized mineral production by foreign producers and US regulatory and land-planning policies as retarding mineral exploration activity. Douglas Cook of Freeport Exploration Co., at the same meeting, presented a paper that showed that a 1950-75 period of vigorous exploration has been followed by a period where acquisition has replaced exploration as the predominant means of acquiring new mineral properties. At a December IIASA conference on "The Economics of Mineral Exploration," in Vienna, Austria, A. Rose and R. Eggert of The Pennsylvania State University pointed out that recent exploration decisions tend to rely more on evaluating production costs and comparing them with existing deposits, rather than on return of

Jan 5, 1984

By H. O. Seigel, John C. Robbins

Luminex is a new method of prospecting for mineral deposits based on time-resolved mineral luminescence created by an ultra-violet light source. Developed by Scintrex Ltd., Luminex detects and resolves a group of key minerals - either ore minerals themselves or, more often, accessory or pathfinder minerals for certain types of economic ore deposits. These minerals are commonly found on the earth's surface, even in areas of considerable weathering. The method extends the range of mineral deposits that are remotely detectable from the air. Tungsten, tin, molybdenum, gold, and bedded lead-zinc deposits are included. Therefore, Luminex is a natural supplement to the three classical methods of airborne geophysics. The luminescence of minerals has been known and used qualitatively in mineral exploration for many years. But there are more than 500 minerals known to be at least sometimes luminescent. Luminescence of most is unpredictable and the colors they emit may vary from locale to locale. It is, perhaps, this apparent complexity of the field that has discouraged its proper scientific scale until now. There are two basic types of luminescent minerals - intrinsic and impurity activated. In the first type, luminescence is an inherent property of the mineral in its purest form. In the latter, luminescence is due to the introduction of foreign trace elements, often in very modest amounts (ppm), into the crystal lattice. These trace elements are known as activators. There are very few intrinsic luminescent minerals commonly found in nature. Chief among these are the calcium tungstatemolybdate family, more commonly known as the scheelite-powellite family, and the uranyl minerals such as autunite and saleeite. The vast majority of other known fluorescent minerals such as fluorite, hydrozincite, and many calcites, are impurity activated - that is, they will not fluoresce in purest form. In addition to the many minerals likely to luminesce at the earth's surface under ultraviolet excitation, any prospector who has ventured out at night with a mercury lamp will know that much organic matter luminesces - for example lichens and even scorpions. Just as the eye finds difficulty in resolving the luminescence of minerals from that of organic materials, it also has its limitations at sorting out minerals from one another by their luminescent colors. Figure 1 shows, in part, the photoluminescent emission spectra of scheelite, hydrozincite, and autunite. It is clear that there is a considerable similarity in spectrum between scheelite and hydrozincite and a great deal of overlap. In fact, a small amount of molybdenum in the scheelite lattice can almost bring these two spectra into coincidence. On the other hand, the autunite emission spectrum is clearly resolved from the other two. Basis of the Method The right-hand side of Fig. 1 shows the time waveforms of decay of the photoluminescence of the same three minerals. It is apparent that the lifetimes of photoluminescence of scheelite and hydrozincite are radically different and that these two minerals, therefore, may be readily resolved through their emission lifetime characteristics. It is in the realm of time-resolved measurements (lifetime characteristics) that Scintrex has made its major advance in the Luminex method. With the exception of some work by Exxon confined to uranyl minerals, to the best of our knowledge, no systematic scientific investigation has been carried out in the field of time-resolved mineral luminescence studies other than the work of Scintrex. Scintrex's findings are that all organic materials and most commonly activated luminescent minerals have lifetimes shorter than one microsecond. In addition, only a relatively small number of minerals - among them those called key minerals, or certain ore and pathfinder minerals - have lifetimes greater than one micro-second. Scintrex is able to characterize these minerals primarily by their emission lifetimes and secondarily by their emission spectral characteristics. By a combination of these factors a mineral index is arrived at. From that, photoluminescent minerals can be resolved from one another with a high degree of probability. At least two spectral channels and two time channels - of which one can be common - are required to apply this mineral index. Ground System A portable hand-held Luminex analyzer based on a modulated mercury lamp has been used to date in Canada, the US, and Australia. The current production model of this device is the LG-2. It has two spectral channels and two time channels for each spectral channel. Figure 2 shows a ground Luminex traverse over the Texas-Arizona zinc prospect in Arizona. The instrument was set so the channel read was hydrozincite-specific insofar as possible. The mineralization in this prospect is known to be hydrozincite and other zinc secondary minerals in limestone. Figure 3 shows a ground Luminex traverse over the AAA uranium prospect in Nevada. The instrument was set to optimize the uranyl response. For comparative purposes, broadband scintillation counter readings were made on the same stations (also shown in Fig. 3). It is apparent that both the Luminex and the scintillation counter results reflect a near-surface distribution of uranyl minerals. It is interesting that no visible uranyl secondary minerals

Jan 7, 1983

By William J. Bronkala

One of the oldest tools used in mineral concentrating is the magnetic separator. Virtually every mineral handling system has need for some type of magnetic equipment in two types of basic usage. 1. Equipment protection through tramp iron removal. 2. Mineral concentration based on magnetic properties of the minerals contained in the ore.

Jan 1, 1969

By Arthur F. Eidson

INTRODUCTION If a uranium mill worker is involved in an accident, analysis of excreta for uranium content and[in vivo] counting methods are used to estimate the extent of the possible exposure and to predict the pattern of uranium distribution among tissues (Spitz, [et al]., 1980). Interpretations of urinary excretion data are based on studies of human exposures to single uranium compounds including U02, U308, U03, UF4, U02F2 and UF6 (Alexander, 1974). Refined uranium ore (yellowcake) is a variable mixture of U03-NH3-H20 adducts (ammonium diuranate, ADU) and their thermal conversion product, U308. The variability in composition of yellowcake (Kalkwarf, 1979; Eidson and Mewhinney, 1980; Dennis, Blauer and Kent, 1981) complicates the interpretation of bioassay data from individuals that might have inhaled any single yellowcake material. A test system would be useful to estimate the dissolution behavior of a particular yellowcake aerosol inhaled by a worker and aid in the interpretation of bioassay data collected before and after an accident. A series of experiments was conducted for this purpose. The objectives of these studies were to: 1) develop specific criteria for comparing [in vitro] dissolution systems and 2) use the criteria to evaluate solvents, methods and experimental temperature and pH conditions used in previous studies. Dissolution experiments were conducted using different combinations of solvents, conditions and methods with a common yellowcake sample. Because little information is available from human yellowcake inhalation exposures to evaluate the [in vitro] results, criteria for evaluation of different tests were derived from a model of yellowcake dissolution in lung constructed from a number of cases in which humans were exposed to single uranium compounds known to be in yellowcake (Mercer, 1975). MATERIALS AND METHODS Materials The powder used in the tests was taken from one lot of yellowcake obtained from a commercial uranium mill. The same powder was previously designated as Mill D in Eidson and Mewhinney, 1980 and Mill 2 in Kalkwarf, 1979. The ammonium diuranate content was measured by infrared absorption to be 25% ± 1% (Eidson and Mewhinney, 1980). Solvents The compositions of the two biological fluid simulants used are compared in Table 1. Simulated lung fluid (SLF) (Kalkwarf, 1979; Dennis, Blauer and Kent, 1981) was chosen to simulate the composition [ ] of lung fluid as closely as practical (Moss, 1979). Simulated blood serum ultrafiltrate (SUF) (Eidson and Mewhinney, 1980) was chosen because of previous successful efforts to model human urinary excretion of inhaled plutonium aerosols (Kanapilly Raabe and Boyd, 1974) and the dissolution rate of 241Am02 in Beagle dogs (Mewhinney and Griffith, 1981). Major differences are that simulated lung fluid contains Mg2+ and a higher Ca2+ concentration than SUF and that SUF contains ammonium ion. Both solvents include protein substitutes; acetate is used in SLF, while amino acids are used in SUF. Both solvents include phosphate but the chelating agent diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) is included in SUF to prevent possible formation of insoluble uranyl phosphate precipitates that would result in an underestimation of solubility. In addition to the above solvents, modified solvent compositions were prepared to investigate the role of specific salts in yellowcake dissolution studies. Solutions of SUF (Table 1) were prepared without DTPA (SUF-DTPA) and without amino acids (SUF-amino acids). No solution excluded both DTPA and amino acids. The SLF solutions were prepared with DTPA (SLF + DTPA) and without phosphate

Jan 1, 1981

By N. Finkelstein, D. A. Hinckfuss

The large and compact but simple Bougainville Copper Limited flotation circuit has been in operation for 3-1/2 years. Discussion of problem areas encountered since start-up and remedies that have been implemented or proposed, form the main basis of this paper. Full cur- rent operational data is also provided.

Jan 1, 1976

By E. C. Roper

Landusky Mining, Inc. and Zortman Mining, Inc. are two registered Montana Corporations wholly owned by Pegasus Gold, Ltd. of Vancouver, B.C. The Zortman and Landusky Mines are located in the Little Rockies District of central Montana. The Zortman-Landusky mines produced 2,100 kg gold in 1982. A total of 3,250,000 t of ore per year are mined during the period March 1, to September 15, at an average grade of 1.04 gm/t (0.03 oz/t) gold and 13.4 gm/t (0.385 oz/t) silver at a cutoff grade of 0.35 grams of gold/ton (0.01 oz of Au/t) of ore. The stripping ratio during 1983 is anticipated to be 0.75/1 waste to ore. Combined average plant capacity of the two Merrill-Crowe plants is 9,840 lpm (2,600 gpm). The combined heap spray capacity of the two plants approaches 18,900 lpm (5,000 gpm). The mine employs approximately 200 people, about half of these work for the mining companies and the other half for the mining contractor, N. A. Degerstrom of Spokane, Washington. Net profit in 1982 for Zortman and Landusky Mining, Inc. approximated $4,900,000 at an average gold price of $11.40/gm.

Jan 1, 1983

By Alexander N. Winchell

"The deposits of the east end of the Mesabi Range cover very large areas, and consist of the same taconite that produces the hematite of the central and western Mesabi. It is not deeply covered with drift, but outcrops boldly in large masses. It is not concentrated locally into enriched bodies separated by leaner areas, but is all a fairly uniform, hard, banded, unaltered chert, carrying about 25 to 30 per cent iron as magnetite.The Mesabi Iron Company, organized by Hayden, Stone & Co., and under the direction of D. C. Jackling, has taken over these deposits and is building a Concentrating plant at the new town of Babbitt, about fourteen miles east of Mesaba, Minn. This plant is to have a capacity of 2,000 to 3,000 tons per day, and is based on the application to this low grade material of the methods which have made the so-called porphyry copper properties so successful.In 1916, an experimental mill was built in Duluth; containing full sized machinery and capable of handling from 100 to 200 tons daily. A considerable tonnage of material was concentrated here during 1916, 1917 and 1918. The work showed that the resulting product could be varied, almost at will, between 60 per cent and 70 per cent iron and .006 per cent to .030 per' cent phosphorus, and that this could be made on a large scale well within the limits of cost set by iron trade conditions. A small special cargo was sent down the lakes, late in 1918, assaying 63.27 per cent iron (natural and dry) and .008 per cent phosphorus; but it is assumed that large scale shipments will normally be of a Bessemer' grade carrying about 63 per cent iron and .020 per cent to .030 per cent phosphorus. This material is a sinter, carrying only traces of sulphur and titanium, with silica between 6 per cent and 10 , per cent, and alumina, lime, magnesia, and manganese, each below 1 per cent. Some of the iron in this sinter is hematite and some is magnetite, the percentages varying according to the treatment given on the sintering machine. Like the analyses, this hematite percentage is within reasonable control. Sinter made from finely ground magnetite has much the structure of coke, being firm yet porous, and gives good account of itself in the blast furnace."

Jan 1, 1920

By T. J. Driscoll

The effect of coatings on the incendive properties of aluminum alloy 6061-T651 in air-6.4%CH4 was studied for collisions between rusted steel and both uncoated and coated projectiles with incident energies as high as 300 J (220 ft-lb) and velocities as high as 200 m/s (660 fps). These conditions were intended to simulate the rough handling of equipment in coal mines. The ignition probability using uncoated alloy projectiles increased with increasing relative humidity and appeared to be influenced by atmospheric ozone content. The incendive properties of both the uncoated and coated alloy depended on the type of rust used, but the dependence of the coated alloy was very different from that of the uncoated alloy. A number of coatings developed in the last 25 years were found to offer protection from ignition and to remain largely intact for occasional collisions or collisions randomly distributed over the coating surface, but probably not for repetitive collisions at any given point on the coating. These protective coatings utilize a hard anodized aluminum alloy surface coated with one or more layers followed by heat treatment of the coating. Coatings containing Teflon and MoS2 and thicker than 50 µm (2 mils) appear to be most effective.

Jan 1, 1987

In 1988, at the request of members of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration (SME) Inc., the president of SME formed Working Party No. 79, Ore Reserve Definition. Its mission was to develop guidelines for the public reporting of exploration information, resources and reserves. These guidelines were published in the April 1991 issue of Mining Engineering,(pp. 379-384), and as a document entitled "A Guide for Reporting Exploration Information, continued on an ad-hoc basis until 1996. Working Party No. 79 was then renamed the SME Committee on Re¬sources and Reserves and became a standing committee. Since 1994, the Council of Mining and Metallurgical

Jan 1, 1999

By J. A. Organiscak

Two types of airflow splitting methods for improving longwall dust control were investigated by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health's Pittsburgh Research Laboratory. Investigated were a translucent mesh barrier and a staged spray barrier system to confine the shearer-generated dust to the coal-extraction side of the longwall face while maintaining a cleaner split of airflow on the opposing worker walkway side of the longwall face. In laboratory experiments and in a longwall field evaluation, the translucent mesh barrier was shown to provide notable dust-control effectiveness for a distance of up to 60 m downstream of the shearer, provided that the mesh barrier remained relatively parallel to the airflow. The staged spray barrier system showed marginal dust-control effectiveness in the laboratory and, therefore, was not field tested.

Jan 1, 2000

By B Scheiner, D. A. Stanley

Introduction Treatment of ores to recover metal and mineral values results in waste materials usually in the form of dilute slurries. The US Bureau of Mines (USBM) investigated a technique for dewatering phosphatic clay waste by flocculating with polyethylene oxide (PEO) and dewatering the resulting floes on a static screen and/or trommel screen (Schemer et al., 1985). In the investigation, it was determined that PEO was far superior to polyacrylamide polymers for this type of dewatering. This paper discusses reasons for this superior performance. Comparison of PEO with polyacrylamides Dewatering experiments were conducted by adding PEO solution from a burette to a stirred clay slurry. The dewatering endpoint was characterized by rotation of the floc mass as a unit, a clear supernate, a maximum floc size, and a minimum floc volume. Additional water was removed from the floes by hand squeezing (Schemer et al., 1985). The clays investigated were sodium, potassium, magnesium, calcium, and aluminum exchanged montmorillonite and attapulgite. Nine commercially available (Superfloc) polyacrylamides were compared with PEO at two polymer concentrations. Results are summarized in Table 1. The solids content of the dewatered clays ranged between 24% and 33% and was highest for PEO-treated material. These results and the data in Table 1 indicate that PEO is superior to polyacrylamide in terms of polymer dosage required. Superflocs 16 through 128, like PEO, are nonionic and should give similar results to those for PEO if the flocculation mechanism is the same for both type polymers. Superflocs 204 through 214 are anionic with increasing anionic character from 204 to 214. Generally, the anionic polymers gave the best results for the polyacrylamides tested, but in terms of dosage they were not as good as PEO. Correlation between flocculation and dewaterability of waste slurries The overall mechanism for mechanically induced clay dewatering is not completely known, but certain observations can be made. For instance, when a polymer is adsorbed on a clay such as montmorillonite, the polymer desorbs interlayer water. Polymer adsorption is driven by favorable entropy changes associated with this water desorption. It is also known that the -CH2-CH2- links of the PEO chain are sufficiently hydrophobic to lead to physical adsorption of the polymer (Theng, 1979). For montmorillonite slurries, the sheet-like fundamental particles, called tactoids, consist of a small, variable number of aluminosilicate layers together with interlayer water and exchange ions. The flocculation process consists of adsorption of polymer on the tactoid. Loops and tails of polymer that extend into solution then adsorb on another tactoid, forming a bridge. Mechanical action, induced by hand squeezing or in a trammel, joins the bridged tactoids face-to-face and edge-to-edge to form regions of high density. Similar orientation effects are observed for the needle-like attapulgite crystals (Schemer et al., 1985). Proposed flocculation model Generally, statements concerning flocculation and dewaterability apply to both PEO and the polyacrylamides. However, PEO has additional interaction with the clay material when compared with polyacrylamides. PEO is a polymer with repeating -CH2-CH2-O- groups and interacts with montmorillonite through a water bridge whose strength is greatly influenced by the exchange ion. To obtain insight into this interaction, a series of experiments were conducted in which different ion exchange forms of montmorillonite and attapulgite clays

Jan 1, 1987

By M. Beus, S. Stewart, S. Iverson

Recent ore pass failures have underlined the need for improved designs, standards, structural monitoring methods and better hang-up prevention and removal techniques. Researchers at the Spokane Research Laboratory of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) are investigating methods to improve safety during the transport of ore in ore passes. Design criteria and hang-up prevention and remediation strategies involve studies of the effects of static and dynamic ore and waste-rock loads on chutes, walls, gates and support structures. Particle flow analysis methods were used to simulate the response of various ore pass designs to a wide range of ore loading conditions. A full-scale mockup of actual ore pass and chute assemblies was duplicated and tested for load response. Data from a particle flow code and the mock-ups were compared Loads on an active ore pass chute were measured

Jan 1, 2000

By P. Sander, M. Spiegl, J. Reilly, A. Van Droogenbroeck

Although the outdated idea of calculating risk as the deterministic product of its likelihood and impact is not entirely a thing of the past, a multitude of organizations have adopted the usage of probabilistic methods for risk analysis, as they better reflect the inherent uncertainty of cost and risk estimates with ranges. But are these advancements sufficient in a complex environment such as tunnelling projects, where inadequate modelling of cost and risk can result in estimate discrepancies that run into millions of dollars? This paper explores two advanced probabilistic modelling techniques for tunnelling projects. The first one demonstrates how the cost and schedule uncertainty related to changes in excavation and support classes can be modelled with correlated variables. The second example models the risk related to explosive ordnance clearance on construction sites using a probabilistic event tree.

Dec 1, 2022