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By Paul M. Tyler

Mineral raw materials, because they are essential to our industrial prosperity and military strength, must be made available in substantial quantities regardless of cost. Variations in the cost of procuring minerals, as compared with the cost of obtaining other commodities, and changes in the cost of production of different minerals relative to one another, will naturally influence the quantities of a given mineral item that can be marketed readily. However, in the last analysis, the cost of winning minerals from the ground usually constitutes only a small fraction of the value of the end-use products and services derived from them. The miner's share of the cost of a typewriter, telephone circuit, or even a modem office building, is almost insignificant. Far more important to the ultimate consumer, therefore, than any minor saving in cost is the assurance of ample supplies of the minerals needed to aliment our expanding economy. To create a successful metal mining operation involves (1 ) the discovery and systematic development of a mineral deposit, (2) extraction of the ore, (3) the mechanical and metallurgical processing to eliminate worthless or harmful impurities, and (4) the profitable disposal of the product. The fist step of the technological process belongs chiefly in the realm of the geologist, the second is a mining engineer's job, the third is mainly up to the millmen and extractive metallurgists; whereas the fourth and equally important step poses a commercial problem that has aspects in common with the marketing of other products. Ore finding is far from being an exact science. There is no mathematical criterion for evaluating the efficiency of prospecting and exploration. Lady Luck shares the honors or assumes part of the blame along with the prospector and geologist. Marketing like- wise involves factors that seemingly defy engineering analysis. Although the other steps can be measured with some degree of mathematical accuracy, even they tend to vary so widely in basic principle, as well as in

Jan 1, 1964

By E. M. Norris

In the summer of 1917 it was decided to fireproof the main tramway hoisting shaft of the Anaconda Copper Mining Co. at Butte, Mont. The shaft has three hoisting compartments and one pump compartment; it is timbered with 12 by 12-in. (30.5 by 30.5-cm.) fir timber, and is 2475 ft. (754 m.) deep. Subsidence and displacement of the surrounding country rock had produced exceedingly heavy ground, and had carried the shaft out of line, in several places, by as much as 2 ft. (0.6 m.) displacement. Constant repairing and realigning of the timbers had been necessary in order to maintain clearance for the cages. The most feasible method of fireproofing, therefore, seemed to be to cover the timbers with a coat of concrete applied with the cement gun. The cement gun, which is operated by compressed air at ordinary mine pressures, feeds a mixture of sand and cement through a hose to a nozzle having a water connection. The mortar in fluid form is thus sprayed upon the prepared surface in thin layers, which can be built up to any desired thickness. The cement gun can be set up at any convenient point; satisfactory results have been obtained with the nozzle a distance of 500 ft. (152 m.) from the gun. The shaft was thoroughly overhauled and the timbers put in the best possible state of repair. Between the 1000 and the 1400 levels, much loose ground lay against the shaft timbers on the north side; this was breast-boarded back and a 30-in. (76-cm.) reinforced-concrete retaining wall was erected, leaving a space of 12 in. (30.5 cm.) outside the shaft timbers to allow for future movements of the ground. For convenience in handling men and materials; it was arranged to concrete the auxiliary hoisting-cage compartment and the pump compartment first, using the cages of the main hoist to serve the cementing crews. The auxiliary cage was then available while the remainder of the shaft was being concreted.

Jan 3, 1918

By Joseph L. Gillson

In this volume, which is divided into chapters on a commodity basis, many subjects inevitably have a common interest with others, or are interrelated in one way or another. No group of commodities is so outstanding in this regard as is that group of which the basic raw material is a carbonate rock. There are chapters in this book on dimension stone, on crushed stone, on chalk and whiting, on cement, on lime, on magnesite, on sodium carbonate; all of which are entirely, or partly, products of the "carbonate rocks." Rhodochrosite, witherite and strontianite are other carbonates described respectively in chapters on manganese minerals, barium minerals and strontium minerals; and travertine and cave onyx are carbonate materials used as ornamental stones. High grade marble is used for monuments and statues and as a decorative building stone. The aggregate tonnage of the basic raw material, the carbonate rock, is so enormous that it exceeds the tonnage of any metallic ore mined and quarried in the United States, and in turn is exceeded only by coal, sand and gravel, and by water in the gross tonnage produced by the mineral industry in this country. The specialties, including magnesite, sodium carbonate, and rhodochrosite, witherite and strontianite are produced from uncommon rock types of limited occurrence. They are described adequately in the chapters devoted to these subjects. This chapter is concerned with the limestones and dolomites. No other solid rocks are as important as these in the industrial life of the world, nor are any so widely known. Massive units of some carbonate formations form many of the spectacular features of some of the most rugged mountains in the world, such as the Dolomite Alps, the Canadian Rockies, some rugged peaks of the eastern flanks of the American Rockies in Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico and in many ranges in Utah, Nevada and Arizona. These continue down the Sierra Oriental in Mexico and on around the world to the flanks of the Himalayas, in the South China Highlands, and separating Asia and Europe in the flanks of the Ural Mountains where they form many reexhumed hills called Shikhany.50a Less rugged and more nearly flat-lying carbonate rocks underlie most of the area of our great Middle Western plain, the southern part of England and the northern part of Africa. These are the common rock formations known from boyhood to a large part of the world's population. The use of lime, produced by the burning of limestone, goes back to antiquity, and mortar was used widely in Biblical times. The cement made by mixing volcanic ash with lime was a basic material of construction when Pompeii was built. Our Eastern states are dotted with abandoned limestone quarries, and the ruins of old lime kilns which were operated in Colonial days. Many limestones and dolomites are found in flat-lying strata of a thickness convenient for quarrying as a building stone, so that houses and other structures have been built with them for centuries. In order to replace the muddy and rutted dirt roads with surfaces that could stand the hard usage of his wagons and carts, man learned to crush stone and put a layer of it on his old trails. Such roads built by the Romans have been in use over much of

Jan 1, 1960

By C. A. Stetefeldt

Jan 1, 1892

By H. A. MEGRAW

THE meeting of the A. I. M. E. at Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Sept. 12 to 15, inclusive, celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of the Institute. It was at Wilkes-Barre, in 1871, that the foundation was laid for the great institution that now includes in its roster the greatest names. in mining engineering in every civilized country of the world. The founders of the Institute, with rare prescience, established a common ground upon which all mining engineers, whatever particular branch they might consider most pertinent, could stand securely, assured of a deep-seated interest from their brethren similarly minded in other localities. So wise and clear was the vision of the founders that every engineer connected with mining has found it beneficial, not to say indispensable, to maintain his connection with the Institute and to increase his technical enthusiasm through the medium of the valuable technical publications. The little coterie of 1871 has grown to a strong body of more than 10,000 members in 1921, reflecting the glory of the founders in the record of the accomplishments written on the pages of the fifty years of the

Jan 1, 1921

By W. L. Penberthy, H. J. Ramey

Experimental work on the combustion oil recovery process has consisted of both laboratory and field studies. Although field experiments are the ultimate test of any oil recovery process, they are costly, time consuming and difficult to analyze quantitatively. Laboratory combustion tube experiments can be opertzted far more rapidly and cheaply, but are subject to scaling and interpretation problems. This paper points out some important design problems, operational criteria and considerations in2portunt to interpretation of results. An analytical hcut model of movement of a burning front axiully along a cylinder with heat loss through an annular insulation was developed. The result was used to identify steady-state temperatrrre distributions both ahead of and behind the burning front, with and without heat loss. Results indicate potential operating limitations on the minimum burning front rielocity (or air flux) which may be used for any given combustion tube. Results also enable estimating the effective thermal diffusivity and over-all heat loss from experimental data and thickness of the brnning zone. Resu lts of operation of a combustion tube constructed recently verify this preliminary theory in the region immediately ahead of and behind the burning front surprisinRly well. INTRODUCTION Many field and laboratory studies of the forward combustion oil recovery process have been conducted since the early publications of Kuhn and Kochl and Grant and Szasz2 in 1953 and 1954. In view of the complex and costly nature of this type of investigation, it is not surprising that no complete theory of the nature of the forward combustion Drocess is yet available. However, gross effects are understood well enough that reasonable design procedures are available for planning field operations. Nelson and McNeil 3,4 have published two comprehensive papers concerning design procedures. One major consideration in planning field operations is the fuel concentration at the burning front. Fuel concentration controls air requirements — an important cost factor in forward combustion. Although fuel concentration can be estimated from field test results by various methods, results are subject to great uncertainty in view of natural limitations on experimental observations. Nelson and hlcNeil4 recommend that fuel concentration be determined from laboratory combustion tube studies. Fuel concentration is only one of many important factors which can be studied by combustion tube experimentation. An obvious goal of imporrance must be development of a comprehensive theory of the forward combustion process. If a theory of this process can be established which matches controlled laboratory experimentation, it should be possible to apply this theory to field operating conditions with some confidence. Laboratory combustion tube studies have already yielded important information concerning the combustion process. However, details concerning the design, construction and operation of combustion tubes are rare. Combustion tubes used by various investigators vary in size, length and mode of operation. Therefore, one purpose of this paper is to present considerations important to design, construction and operation of a combustion tube. In regard to previous combustion tube studies, attention is called to Refs. 1 through 9. These references describe a wide variety of equipment types and present a great deal of pertinent experimental data. In general, combustion tubes usually consist of thin-walled stainless steel tubes containing an oil sand pack mounted within a pressure jacket. Provisions have often been made to heat the tube ex tern a lly by separately controlled heaters to reduce heat losses. This step usually permits operation at low air fluxes (air rate per square foot burning front surface) similar to those encountered in field operations. Burning is usually conducted from the air inlet end of the tube to the outflow end. The tube orientation used has been vertical or horizontal. For vertical tubes, burning has been conducted vertically downwards. As a result of laboratory studies, many of the

Jan 1, 1967

By W. S. Potter

The proportions of manganese and carbon in manganese steel are familiar to all…

Jan 1, 1915

By J. J. Scott

INTRODUCTION Rock mechanics theory needs to be applied to solve ground control problems, but in the final analysis the mining method and equipment which is used will be those which solve problems in a practical manner. Equipment and its inherent productivity and safety as supplied as "off the shelf" items by manufacturers often dictate the size of mine openings. Operators may tolerate falls of ground and associated hazards if productivity and safety problems are not too severe. In this whole process the costs of mining finally dictates just what system will be employed and what equipment will be used. True solutions to ground control problems sometimes require that the mine operator step back and totally rethink his problems. The true cost of accidents are often missed and hidden in overhead costs. Losses in production and accompanying profit are not fully considered, false economics, such as using inappropriate roof support devices, are undertaken at times when using the most expensive devices to totally eliminate accidents may be the best overall solution. Automation to remove the worker from the hazard area is often over- looked as the initial capitol expense to apply it may be high. Cooperation between mine engineers, mine operators, safety personnel, equipment suppliers, and government inspectors, both state and federal, is required to reach workable solutions that best meet the goals of all parties.

Jan 1, 1983

By Y. A. Topkaya

The placer gold occurrences at Sart Çayl, Manisa, Turkey, the legendary River Pactolus of King Croessus, were evaluated in this study to determine if this deposit contains sufficient recoverable value to justify development and exploitation. The gold occurs both in the upper Neogene conglomerates and the alluvium derived from these conglomerates. The total reserve in the whole region is estimated to be 500 million cubic metres. Samples were taken of the upper conglomerate and in the alluvium in an attempt to determine the amount and the physical nature of the gold. The gold in samples was recovered by screening out barren oversize followed by washing the sand and gravel through riffled sluices. The resulting sluice concentrate was later panned and amalgamated at site. Laboratory cyanidation testing of some samples for control purposes was also done. The average calculated free gold was found to be about 90-100mg/m3 and the size of gold flakes found was quite small. The field as well as laboratory testing of the samples of Sart Çay1 indicated that the potential reserves in this region could only be developed as a sand and gravel operation and the gold could be recovered together with the heavy minerals as a byproduct.

Jan 1, 1984

By R. E. Zimmerman, Michael Sokaski, E. R. Palowitch, M. R. Geer, H. F. Yancey, W. Deurbrouck, S. C. Sun

PART 1: DENSE MEDIUM SEPARATION by M. SOKASKI, M. R. GEER and H. F. YANCEY INTRODUCTION In the early days of coarse-coal treatment by the dense-medium process in Europe, loess was one of the materials used for medium solids. Newly developed cyclones were used to reclaim and thicken :he loess suspension. On occasion, when the cyclone thickener at the Maurits mine in the Netherlands plugged, the overflow was found to be filled with clean coal free of impurity. From this observation stemmed the concept of the cyclone as a cleaning device. Development took place during World War 11 in the laboratory of the Dutch State Mines under the direction of M. G. Driessen. A 15-ton-per-hour pilot plant was in operation in the laboratory by 1945, when, in September, Driessen made the first public disclosure of the process in a paper presented to the Institute of Fuel in London. In April 1945,2 operation of this pilot plant was observed by one of the authors, who was so impressed with the potential of the cyclone process that, on his return to the United States, a research program on the cyclone was started by the Bureau of Mines immediately. This work led to an AIME paper in 1946 in which the first details of cyclone operation on American coals was made available. Commercial adoption of the cyclone proceeded in Europe, initially in the Netherlands, Germany, and France. In the United States, where coal is less costly and most of the coals are so easy to clean they respond well to simpler cleaning systems, the first cyclone plant was not built until 1961.3 As of the spring of 1967, a total of 31 commercial cy- clone plants had been installed or were under construction in the United States; this does not include eight Dynawhirlpool plants. The capacity of the cyclone plants ranges from 50 to 1300 tons per hour and totals 6600. THEORY Before discussing the theory of a dense medium cyclone, a brief description may be helpful to some readers who are not familiar with its basic operation. In a typical dense-medium cyclone, illustrated in figure 10-1, the mixture of medium and raw coal enters tangentially near the top of the cylindrical section, thus forming a strong vertical flow. The refuse moves along the wall of the cyclone and is discharged through the under- flow orifice. The washed coal moves toward the longitudinal axis of the cyclone and passes through the vortex finder to the overflow chamber.

Jan 1, 1968

By A. A. Smith, J. S. Smart

NUMEROUS investigations of the effects of the various impurities common to commercial coppers have been published, and the data have found wide use in industry. Naturally, emphasis has been placed on the oxygen-bearing coppers of the tough-pitch variety, but need is now evident for data covering the oxygen-free condition as well. Furthermore, relatively few of the important reactions between oxygen and the various impurities are well understood, and often the data at hand are not applicable to the low concentrations encountered in commercial coppers. This paper presents the changes in conductivity and softening temperature derived from individual additions of the group VIII triad, iron, cobalt and nickel, to high-purity copper, and constitutes a portion of the copper-research program being conducted at the Central Research Laboratory of the American Smelting and Refining Co. The method of preparation of high-purity copper and its alloys in either the oxygen-free or oxygen-bearing form has been described previously.1 The purity of this material, and the methods developed to produce it, provide the means for direct investigation of the very low concentration range in which the various impurities generally exist in commercial coppers. The usual necessity for extrapolation to this range using the results obtained from higher concentrations, and the interfering effects of extraneous impurities, are thus simultaneously circumvented. Since previously published data have adequately presented the effects of higher concentrations of iron, cobalt and nickel, the present investigation has been confined to the composition range 0 to 0.05 per cent. All alloys were initially prepared in the form of oxygen-free continuous cast rod, the weighed alloying additions in suitable form being charged with the pure copper to the continuous casting crucible. The best of the available high-purity alloying materials were used, and spectrographic analyses confirmed the absence of interfering elements from the alloys formed. Each series was compounded in the direction of increasing concentration, starting with pure copper in a new crucible and finishing with the 0.05 per cent alloy. Composition was closely controlled by adding the alloying element in the form of a carefully compounded and analyzed master alloy rendered uniform by continuous casting. The accuracy of this method of synthesis was proved by chemical analysis of the more concentrated alloys, and, accordingly, there is every reason to credit the stated composition of the very dilute alloys in the range where chemical analysis becomes highly uncertain. Oxygen-free samples for measurements of conductivity and softening temperature were obtained by drawing the continuous cast rod to wire of 0.081-in. diameter, employing a number of intermediate anneals to refine the grain structure. The

Jan 1, 1942

By F. W. Gordon

Since the waste gases of the blast-furnace came to be generally utilized in heating the blast and raising steam, the gradual improvement in the economy of fuel, mainly through the nse of higher temperature in the blast, has impoverished the gases. The increased output per unit of measurement of the furnace, and the increased height of the furnace, have markedly increased the resistance to the blast, thus enormously increasing the duty required from the gases. In other words, a gas reduced in heating power by a further dilution of CO, is required to raise the temperature of the blast to 1800' Fahr., where formerly 600' was a good temperature, and at the same time to raise steam enough to drive the air into the furnace at a pressure of from four to eight pounds in coke practice, and from eight to twelve pounds in anthracite practice, and also pump at least double the water formerly used at furnaces. Hence the necessity for the employment of the best scheme for thoroughly consuming these gases with the least dilution of air, and the use of the best device for absorbing the heat prodnced for the purposes above mentioned. In a former paper before this Society the writer called attention to such improvements as had been made by his firm, by which it was claimed 1400' Fahr. could be maintained in the blast by a less consumption of gas than was required to maintain 900' when using pipe-ovens; and it would not be too much to say that 1600' Fahr. might now be written in place of the 1-400. The object of this paper is to give the practice of our firm in the

Jan 1, 1884

By D. K. Crampton

NEARLY everyone who has not had the benefit of study in the field of metallurgy subscribes to a persistent and enthusiastic belief in the legendary lost art of hardening copper. This of course supplies a perfect introduction to a chapter of information on copper and its alloys, since the dissipation of fallacies and superstitions affecting an art probably constitutes the best method of getting at its real substance. Metals are hardened, but also embrittled, by a plurality of impurities. In the modern technology of copper-base metal products, we are familiar with a great host of materials, passing from one extreme of dead soft copper better than 99.9 pct pure, which in the form of wire about as thick as a match will stand hundreds of full twists in a 12-in. length, to an alloy containing less than 3 pct of alloyed substance possessing the strength of pretty good steel and capable of manufacture into razor blades, should we suddenly be deprived of steel; certainly a much better material for this purpose. Every copper alloy known to primitive man lies in some inter- mediate position and the ancient bronzes that have been found all over the world wherever an early civilization existed are usually contaminated by such impurities as sulfur, oxygen, antimony, arsenic, iron, or other materials, so that they could not possibly conform to any modern intelligent specification insuring the best combination of useful properties in alloys of their type and would go

Jan 1, 1953

By B. H. Dunshee

THIS paper is not intended to be a technical discussion of square-set framing as used in mines, but merely a short description of the different kinds of framing that have been used in the Butte mines, and what has been decided upon, after years of practical experience, as being the best, taking into consideration the physical condition of the veins and country rock, and. also the supply of timber available for mining purposes. Butte is, essentially, a square-set district. Virginia City, Nev., was the first mining camp to use this method of timbering, and to Philip Deidesheimer, who went to the Ophir mine in 1860, is given the credit of solving the problem of square-set framing, where large bodies of ore were stoped and the timbers were supposed to hold the ground from caving without any filling. That he did his work well is shown by the fact that the main features of his framing are in use to-day. In the Butte mines the conditions are such that this method of timbering is generally used. We do not, of course, depend upon the timbers any more than is necessary. The worked-out stopes are filled with waste rock as close behind the miners as possible and not interfere with mining operations. The waste rock is obtained from development work on the different levels or from the surface. In the earlier days of mining in Butte there were numerous independent companies and naturally there were different ideas as to the best way to frame the square sets, although the general features were the same.

Jan 8, 1913

By Robert M. Dreyer

AGGREGATE With an annual domestic production of over 1.6 billion tons at a value of over $2 billion (see Table 15.1.1), the production of aggregate (crushed rock, sand, and gravel) is a basic industry of utmost economic importance. Because of the role of aggregate materials as essential ingredients of concrete, asphalt surfacing, and plaster, their delivered prices are major factors in determining the cost of construction. The annual domestic production comes from nearly 10,000 plants. About 15% of these plants account for over one-half the production. In a rapidly inflating economy, the average mine sales price of aggregate has remained relatively stable. The actual mine sales prices, however, vary greatly depending on quarrying costs in various parts of the country. Of much more importance in construction costs, however, is the delivered price of aggregate. This varies for each job, depending on the distance from the quarry and resulting transportation costs, as well as the initial cost at the mine. Because of a proliferation of regulations limiting new quarries in the vicinity of the encroaching urban sprawl, the average distance which aggregate must be transported has been increasing rapidly. Although it is impossible to derive an average delivered cost for aggregate, it should be noted that even an increase of only $1 per ton in average delivered cost over the last decade (probably a minimal assumption) would mean an annual cost $1.5 billion higher than ten years ago. In recent years, structural engineering considerations, as well as an increasing use of lightweight concrete blocks, have resulted in a rapidly increasing demand for lightweight concrete and plaster, the essential ingredient of which is lightweight aggregate. Principal lightweight aggregates are: pumice, slag, perlite (thermally expanded hydrous volcanic glass), vermiculite, and expanded shale, formed by the thermal expansion of shale and slate. The United States now has the capacity to expand, annually, over 13 million tons of shale and slate and to expand over 600,000 tons of perlite. In locating a site for aggregate production. the following factors must be considered: (1) tonnage available; (2) quality of aggregate (including local variations); (3) distance from major use areas; (4) transportation costs, including those resulting from present and possible future haulage restrictions; (5) zoning regulations; (6) operating costs, including the cost effects of compliance with local regulations governing blasting, air pollution, water pollution and drainage, noise levels, and operating periods. At one time, locating a suitable site for the production of crushed rock, sand, or gravel, in most areas, was regarded as an extremely simple task. In the past few years, however, finding a site for profitable production of aggregate has assumed ever-increasing com-

Jan 1, 1976

By Francis Rich

BEFORE the world-wide depression, the primary purpose of most blast-furnace operators was to produce a maximum tonnage of pig iron per day for each furnace in blast. Some attention was paid to the conservation of labor and raw materials, but the idea was well established that low-cost pig iron was attainable only when each furnace was pro-ducing a high tonnage. After the depression had set in, the picture changed considerably. Each blast-furnace operator was forced to run his plant in a manner that best fitted the economical set-up of his company. A great deal of thought was expended on the different methods of operation, always with the idea of making each product in a way that would best serve his company financially. Because of this abnormal condition, the blast-furnace man was compelled to indulge in various practices of which many had been believed to be next to impossible up to that time. The ultimate purpose of these innovations was either one or a combination of the following: 1. To produce only enough pig iron for immediate consumption at a minimum cost. 2. To produce gas for boiler or mill use to supplant some higher priced fuel. 3. To consume the coke produced at the coke plant, which was often viewed as a byproduct. 4. To protect the cash position of the company. These conditions were met by diverse methods, some of which were: 1. Slow or decreased wind. In some instances the blast blown was held as low as 25 per cent of the normal volume. 2. Intermittent operation, in which the furnaces were shut down or "fanned" at frequent intervals.

Jan 1, 1935

By Louis Katona

The practical execution of the design for rolling-mills presented by the writer at the Paris meeting* of thc Iron and Steel Institute in 1900 involves the determination of some questions not yet discussed, among which is the determinatioir of the amount of power required to perform the rolling of pieces of iron and steel of given dimensions. It is necessary to know this factor if we would put motors of proper capacity to the respective pairs of rolls, or, rcciprocally, if, having standard motors at our disposal, we would design grooves to suit them. Moreover, this factor is involved in giving right dimensions to every part of the rolls and housings. Expert designers of engines for driving rolling-mills of the present type receive very indefinite directions, such as: that the motor is to drive a light, medium or heavy train; that it must work with fly-wheel or reversing gear; that the number of revolutions per minute should not exceed 40 or 60, and that at a given speed the power developed should be from 100 to 200 H. P., or from 1,000 to 2,500 13. P. It frequently happens, however, that an cngine of 200 H. P. is forced under the circumstances to press or develop as much as 300 H. P., while, on the other hand, the ,1,500-11. P. engine may be rolling-stock which could be worked with a maximum expenditure of 60 to 80 H. P. Of course such variatior~s as these do not permit the best adjustment of parts or the best economy of power and fuel. The design of roll-trains is even more vaguely limited. Every part of a train, from the point where it connects with the engine to the last groove in the rolls, bears evidence that there are no rules for calculating even approximately the dimensions of the main-shafts, couplings, pinions, gears, rolls, trunnions,

Jan 1, 1904

INTRODUCTION In the preceding chapters we have discussed the various elements of mineral economic analysis, their interrelationships, and the most accepted and advanced techniques by which these elements are manipulated to provide the decision maker quantitative measurements for judging alternate investment opportunities. Regardless of how carefully the economic evaluation is made, and how comprehensive the study of economic parameters has been, uncertainty still remains a significant factor in the outcome of the analysis. The investor or money manager is acutely aware of the uncertainty factor. Many of the economic parameters are functions of economic forecasts and value estimates that can- not be known with any degree of certainty. The postulated DCF-ROR is based upon certain estimates representing "best guess" values, and a single point parameter DCF-ROR analysis represents a combination of "best guesses." The wise decision maker looks at such an analysis and asks the "what if" questions. What if the production cost is 10% higher than the estimate? What if there is an overrun in construction costs? What if the mineral price falls lower than expected? What will be the effect of a higher royalty rate? Many more such questions may arise in trying to assess the total risk involved in funding a mineral project. Prior to the advent of the computer it was difficult to answer all such anticipated questions because of the many laborious calculations involved. Now, with the aid of the computer, most of these questions can be answered by the analyst at the same time the original computations are made by using the process of sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis shows the effect of critical parameter changes upon the DCF-ROR or other profitability measure. When probability of occurrence can be associated with the various parameter value levels, sensitivity analysis becomes probabilistic analysis, and the risk factor can be quantitized in terms of total probability. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS The determination of the sensitivity of the profitability index (usually the DCF-ROR) to changes in the various economic parameters, taking them one at a time, is called sensitivity analysis. The analysis may be performed for any number of parameters involved in the DCF-ROR computation. Generally, in mineral evaluations the most sensitive and most tested parameters are: the metal or mineral price, the operating cost, the annual production grade, and the initial capital invest-

Jan 1, 1980

By Jay A. Carpenter

IN six years the construction of Hoover Dam and the power plants probably will have reached the operating stage and this vast new source of power will then be continuously available for industry. The height of the darn will be 580 ft. and the average annual flow of the Colorado River is calculated at approximately 24,000 cu.ft. per sec. If this full head and average flow can be maintained the year round, about one million horsepower will be generated. The U. S. Reclamation engineers, taking into consideration the probable range in flow and head, have set the figure for power contracts at 660,000 firm horsepower, which can be assured at all times of the year. During the months of heavy run-off of water from the Colorado River Basin the power plants should be able to generate the full 1,000,000 hp. capacity of the power plants, so there will be 340,000 excess or secondary horsepower. The cost of firm power at the switchboard will be close to 2.15 mills per kw.-hr., equal to $14.05 per hp.-yr., and the cost of the secondary or off-peak power will be close to 0.8 mills per kw.-hr., or $5.22 per hp.-yr. In no place in the country can such cheap power be obtained today. The electrochemical industry is in a state of flux because the power costs from its old sources have increased so much (to $30 per hp.-yr. at Niagara) that the industries have had to seek new sources, so they have gone to Canada and Norway and built new plants.

Jan 1, 1932

H. H. Hill.—I believe that as petroleum engineers you are all more or less interested in geophysical prospecting. A large number of the papers that have been written on that subject are too detailed or too much involved to be of much value to a person who is not familiar with the subject, so I suggested to Mr. Fohs that he might bring us something that we could all understand. As I take it, we are interested in learning something about the different methods, the places where they have been used, their limitations and in general whether they have given satisfaction in locating oil deposits. F. J. Fohs, New York, N. Y.—I will briefly summarize some of the results as I Bee them from my practical contacts with them and my discussion of the subject with some of the more important rnen both in this country and Europe. Geophysical Methods 1. Seismographs: A. 1. Sonic refracting seismographs of Karcher, McCullom and Reiber. For rapid reconnaissance and also for detail—perhaps, the best type of instrument. 2. Mechanical refracting seismographs of the Weichert-Mintrop type. B. I. Sonic seismographs using reflected sound from contacts of sufficiently unlike beds where latter are thick enough, being used for detail of both salt domes and ordinary structures where a good reflecting key bed occurs. 2. Torsion Balances: Made in three sizes with greater portability and loss of but 20 per cent. in medium size and loss of 40 per cent. efficiency in smallest size. A. Used to best advantage in detailing salt domes, in noting anomalies of deep-seated structures of the Edgerly, La., type (but not always certain here and dependent on interpretation which involves both experience and the human equation to a large degree). R. Used to advantage in mapping faults where a lime or other denser bed occurs upthrown, and the topographic irregularities are not too involved. C. Of use where buried granite plugs and buried-hill structures occur as in the Western Texas fields. D. Believed of little use for other types of structure. 3. Magnetometers or Variometers: Now built horizontal and vertical with declinometer combined in one instrument. A. Practical in mapping granite or basic igneous rock plugs and intrusions, or of detritus therefrom. Adams has recently demonstrated definite results in mapping the well known Panhandle arch.

Jan 1, 1928