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By Darrell M. Hladun, Linda M. Dufour

The benefits of computer simulation in the design of a refracto­ry gold autoclave facility is discussed. Three computer simula­tion programs used for autoclave design are briefly described in this paper. 1) METS IM® - A Process Simulation Software Package Developed by Proware: Mass and energy balances are conducted around the auto­clave and its ancillary processes. Results from the process simulation define process equipment requirements and are used for establishing operating costs. The p_rocess model integrates various unit operations including grinding, acidu­lation, pressure oxidation, counter-current-decantation, neutralization, cyanide leaching, and carbon-in-pulp or car­bon-in-leach. 2) ALGOR® - Finite Element Analysis (FEA): A computer software program is used in the design and analysis of brick lined pressure vessels, such as autoclave, heater, and flash vessels. This software creates a steady state thermal model, and accurately predicts temperature distribution throughout the entire vessel, including nozzles, which represent regions of high thermal intensity. 3) Compress©: A software package developed by Codeware used for the sizing of pressure vessel components, includ­ing shells, heads and nozzles, according to ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section VIII, Division 1.

Jan 1, 1996

By W. Dresler

Since 1900, smelters have produced in Canada over 10 million tonnes of iron silicate waste slag containing significant quantities of nickel, cobalt and copper. The slag is reduced with aluminum and calcium oxide additions to produce a copper, nickel, and cobalt enriched alloy and an obsidian slag. It was found that the obsidian slag contained very low copper, nickel, and cobalt contents, indeed below 0.06% of each the base metals. These metals have been collected in a type of ferroalloy with up to 1.6% Cu, 2.1% Ni, and 0.7% Co. These alloys can be recycled according to standard procedures in base metal smelters. Surprisingly, the obsidian slag was found to display good cementitious and pozzolanic properties, which is a requirement for cement production. The strength producing properties of the obsidian slag are considered to be exceptional at the 28 day standard test age. In most cases, the obsidian concrete is characterized by significantly greater strengths than control concrete tests and concrete containing fly ash or blast furnace slag. Compressive strength data at 365 days for the obsidian concrete is impressive.

Jan 1, 2003

By G. I. Voiloshnikov, A. F. Panchenko, N. S. Voiloshnikova

Low world gold prices stimulate development and introduction of economically efficient ( cost saving) technology for operating gold mills. This report covers the results of testing and introduction of CIL technology to recover gold from flotation concentrate of Samarta gold concentration plant located in Buryatia (Russia). This plant is treated the ore of Zun Kholba gold deposit using gravity and flotation of gravity tails as preconcentration processes. Till recently high grade gold gravity concentrate was smelted to gold bullion and shipped to gold refinery, gravity middlings were leached by cyanidation in cone type equipment developed by Irgiredmet and flotation concentrate shipped to copper smelter. The disadvantages of flotation concentrate shipping to copper smelter are following: high concentrate transport cost; problem with gold shipped balance; high cost of flotation concentrate treatment; comparatively low gold recovery. In this connection IRGIREDMET developed the hydrometalurgical technology for gold recovery from flotation concentrate. The flowsheet was developed on the base of laboratory, pilot plant and industrial scale tests conducted by IRGIREDMET in 1987-1997 and lrgiredmet experience on CIP process testing and industrial scale introduction in Yakutia [1-6]. The flowsheet is presented in Fig.1 and consists of following base operations: concentrate regrinding;

Jan 1, 1999

By William J. Maloney

Blind drilled shafts are becoming increasingly popular as a secondary and sometimes primary means of ventilation. This is particularly true in the Appalachian coalfields. Some reasons for the rebirth of blind shafts are economics, timeliness, safety characteristics and their inherent independence from underground operations. Blind drilling has had limited use in hard rock and tunneling ventilation. Advances in cutters, bit design, equipment and lining systems have made blind drilled shafts the shaft construction technique of choice for ventilation specialists. History of blind drilling Blind drilling's roots include the Nevada test site, the coalfields of Appalachia and Germany, and the uranium mines of Arizona. Early technology was developed using a variety of equipment mainly of oilfield origin. Shafts completed by oilfield equipment ranged from the shallow 1.5 and 1.8 m (5 and 6 ft) lined shafts on the Nevada test site to two 3 m (10 ft) lined, 222 m (730 ft) deep shafts in Alberta for heavy oil development. Several of these shafts were completed to extraordinary depths. The record, completed in 1969, is a 2.28-m-diam (90-in.-diam), 1875-m (6150-ft) deep shaft, located in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska.

Jan 1, 1993

By Thomas D. Kaufmann

The 1982 recession set the US mining and metals industries reeling. Will the oncoming recession of 1991 hit as hard? Probably not, thanks to a shallower downturn, a weaker dollar and remarkable lower costs. Effects of the last recession That the 1982 recession was traumatic to the American mining and metals industry is an understatement. Quantities of metals consumed dropped. Metals prices fell despite continuing general inflation. The resulting real gross revenues of producers of each of the major metals plunged, in the trough of 1982, to levels one-fourth to two-thirds of those of the peak of 1979 (Table 1). By contrast, most industries in the United States were not hit anywhere nearly as hard. Real GNP, the aggregate of all production, slipped only 1 % from 1979 to 1982. Metals are most sensitive to the business cycle because of their applications. All metals but gold are raw materials to downstream industries. Raw materials are victims of strong fluctuations. This is because buying industries try to hold high inventories in boom periods when goods are in short supply. They reduce inventory levels in buyers markets when suppliers have idle capacity and raw materials are in ample supply.

Jan 1, 1990

By Russell K. McFarland, Gloria T. Saxton

Introduction The March 1969 issue of Civil Engineering contained on article entitled "BART" Subway Construction: Planning and Costs" authoried by Thomas R. Kuesel. This article describes in some detail the innovations developed in planning and management to undertake the design and construction of the BART Project. This 75 mile long system contained 17 miles of urban tunnels and 13 subsurface stations. Within this article Mr. Kuesel very nicely listed the cost of the 70,000 linearfeet of bored tunnel, 23,380 linearfeet of cut and cover tunnel, and the costs of the thirteen underground stations. Ten years subsequent to the publishing of Mr. Kuesels article, it is very sobering to realize that San Francisco obtained a bargain of a magnitude that we are just beginning to realize. Table 1 is a listing of tunneled line sections taken from the paper. The average cost shown in this figure, including sections constructed under compressed air is $1,620 per foot of tunnel, with bid dates ranging from June 1966 thru October 1968. This average cost translated to about $16 million per double track mile of twin tunnel system.

Jan 1, 1979

By Levent Ozdemir, Russell Miller, Fun-Den Wang

The full utilization of tunnel boring machines for excavation in medium hard and hard rock has been limited by insufficient knowledge of rock behavior under the action of mechanical cutters. An understanding of factors affecting the rock removal process will permit: (1) the more efficient design of tunneling machines, (2) the prediction of boring performance from geologic data and cores taken from the proposed tunnel alignment, and (3) an improved excavation rate, thus a lower tunneling cost.. The Colorado School of Mines, under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation, is studying the effects of a number of parameters in regard to tunnel boring using both full and small scale laboratory tests, analyzing field boring performance and comparing the laboratory and field data. Results indicate: (1) the field boring performance can be reproduced in the laboratory, (2) the optimum spacing of cutters or optimum spacing to penetration ratios may be found in laboratory testing, (3) it is promising to use small core samples and laboratory testing to predict field machine performance and (4) effect of joints on boring rate is significant and should be included in predicting tunnel boreability.

Jan 1, 1974

By J. H. Lalor

The Olympic Dam deposit was discovered in July 1975 with the intersection of 38 m (125 ft) of 1.05% copper in diamond drill hole RD 1. A further eight holes were drilled with only marginal encouragement to November 1976 when RD 10 cored 170 m (558 ft) at 2.12% copper and an economic discovery was confirmed. The discovery of Olympic Dam is an excellent example of the application of broad-scale scientifically based conceptual studies to area selection combined with the backing of an exploration management willing to support its exploration scientists in testing their ideas with stratigraphic drilling. It also illustrates the persistence required in mineral exploration. The project began in 1969-1972 with the development of a conceptual model for the formation of sediment-hosted copper deposits. This model suggested that the alteration of continental-type basaltic rocks could release copper into solution from which it could be concentrated in favorable stratigraphic positions. In mid-1972, this concept was applied to a review of the Proterozoic and Lower Paleozoic rocks in South Australia aimed at defining targets for stratigraphic copper deposits.

Jan 1, 1991

By Walter Keune

Object Modeling Technique. This formal descriptive language makes it possible to formulate requirements in the real world in such a way that they can be implemented in the form of entities (cf. Entity Relationship Model[Che83]) and methods (see Figure 1). The object {Roadway} is graphically depicted by means of the Polygon method.

Jan 1, 1996

By Lynda T. Holden, Philip L. LeHoux

Barneys Canyon Mine is a 1.8 million t.p.y. gold heap leach operation near Salt Lake City, Utah. The gold recovery plant has been operating since September of 1989. Carbon elution is done at atmospheric pressure with a high temperature caustic solution. No cyanide is used in the process. Operating experience is discussed.

Jan 1, 1990

By D. A. Dahlstrom

Crushing and grinding consumes about 1.3% of the nations produced electrical energy.( Furthermore, only one in the first ten highest consumers comes from an industry other than mineral processing. This is the grinding of wheat to make flour. The other nine are all in the metallurgical industry and are easily the largest consumers.

Jan 1, 1988

By John C. Balla

The Spar Lake deposit is located in northwestern Montana, approximately 27 km (17 miles) south of Troy, MT, under Mt. Vernon. The deposit is a stratiform, stratabound copper-silver deposit occurring in the Revett Formation of the Proterozoic Belt Supergroup. Distribution of known sandstone-type deposits in the Revett Formation is shown in Fig. 1.

Jan 1, 1991

By Hisakazu Matsushita, Yoshio Yamaguchi

INTRODUCTION Shinkansen, operating 1,176km between Tokyo and Hakata, transports 340,000 passengers a day. Presently, the 466km Tohoku Shinkansen linking Tokyo and Morioka and the 270km Jyoetsu Shinkansen linking Omiya and Niigata are under construction. It is progressing smoothly and 95% of the civil and architectural construction has already been completed.

Jan 1, 1981

By Keith E. Dyas, John Nelson, Ronald T. Johnson

GENERAL DESCRIPTION The Bruce mine of Cyprus Mines Corp. is located in Bagdad, AZ. The mining method used is open cut-and-fill. Of the annual production of 81 647 t (90,000 st), approximately 83% is taken from load-haul-dump (LHD) stopes and the balance from slusher stopes. All ore is produced from the area between the 1250 level and the 2300 level. The average travel time from the shaft pocket to the stope is approximately 5 min. GENERAL ORE BODY REQUIREMENTS AND LIMITATIONS Size, Shape, and Dip The Bruce ore body occurs in quartz-sericite schist with Dick rhyolite on the footwall and andesite on the hanging wall. Diabase dikes are found in the hanging wall; there is also a dike coming off the footwall and crosscutting the ore body. All of the rock types are of the Precambrian Yavapai series and have been subjected to regional metamorphism. A composite of the ore body is given in Fig. 1. The deposit is of massive sulfides occurring as a steeply dipping replacement body. On the upper levels the ore is veinlike with widths from 0.6 to 4.6 m (2 to 15 ft), dipping at 1.4 to 1.5 rad (80° to 85°). On the lower levels the ore is dipping from I to 1.2 rad (60° to 70°) with widths from 3 to 16.8 m (10 to 55 ft). The strike length varies between 107 to 183 m (350 to 600 ft). The rhyolite footwall generally has a knife-edge contact with the massive sulfides. The exceptions to this are the upper levels where there is a 1.5 to 3 m (5 to 10 ft) band of silicified sericite schist between the sulfides and the rhyolite. In the southern part of the ore body the hanging wall is tuffaceous andesite and andesite. In this area the contact is generally sharp and easy to follow. However, to the north there is a large chlorite schist zone that crosscuts the bedding and comes in contact with the massive sulfides. This is apparently due to hydrothermal alteration of the andesite. The chlorite schist is highly mineralized with chalcopyrite and pyrite and quite often forms economic pockets of ore. In the massive sulfides the chief ore minerals are sphalerite and chalcopyrite. Pyrite is the predominant sulfide with considerable pyrrhotite throughout. Bright arsenopyrite ouhedrons in fine grain massive sulfides are quite common. Occasionally small amounts of galena are seen, usually near the foot or hanging wall contacts. On rare occasions tennanite is associated with massive arsenopyrite. Minor amounts of quartz, calcite, and un¬replaced remnants of sericite schist occur, but essentially pyrite is the gangue in which the ore minerals occur. The ore values are in excess of 3.5% copper and 12.5% zinc with some silver and rare gold as byproducts. Ground Conditions The massive sulfides are generally self-supporting. One exception is in the 1850 stope where the ore body is 9 to 11 m (30 to 55 ft) wide and 152 m (500 ft) long. There are flat to shallow dipping slips and seams in the ore, creating extremely blocky ground. For support, old 25.4-mm (1-in.) hoist ropes were installed tensioned to 27 t (30 st), and then cement grouted over the entire length in longholes [14 to 15 in (40 to 50 ft) in length) drilled on 3-m (10-ft) centers from the level above. This has tied the formation together very successfully and virtually eliminated the blocky ground condition. Both the hanging wall and footwall are quite shaley in some areas. Reasons for Adopting Trackless Open Cut-and-Fill Methods First, any method other than open cut-and-fill would have caused too much dilution. The use of rubber-tired mining equipment in the pro¬duction stopes requires a footwall ramp. The inclines in ore will be mined out, so this ramp in the footwall will provide access to and from the stopes (Fig. 2). This incline is very expensive, but necessary to convert existing stopes to LHD mining. 'The final cost of ore mined by the LHD machines has not been determined. As of 1972, tons per manshift in the 2150 stope-the only one to complete a full cut-had increased from 7.58 t (8.36 st) to 12.83 t (14.14

Jan 1, 1982

By William R. Henkle

High-calcium limestone has been intermittently produced from the Monarch quarry since the late 1800s. Initial production was used in sugar processing and for a smelter located near Salida, Colorado. During the 1920s, Colorado Fuel and Iron Company (CF&I) began to exploit the deposit as a source of flux stone for its blast furnace steel operations at Pueblo. The deposit was operated for many years as a captive quarry by CF&I. In 1984, CF&I closed the quarrying operations at Monarch; flux stone was no longer required since the blast furnaces were taken off line in 198 1. In 1994, Colorado Lime Company, a subsidiary of United States Lime and Minerals, Inc. acquired the property. Limestone was mined from the Castle Butte Member of the Leadville Limestone (Lower Missippian). Some high- magnesium dolomite was also mined during WWII from the Redcliff Dolomite Member which directly underlies the Castle Butte. Past production was from both an upper and lower quarry at elevations ranging from 10,000 to 11,000 feet (3,048 m-3,353 m) mean sea level (m.s.1.). The reserves at Monarch quarry are in a dip slope deposit, occupying the northwest slope of Monarch Hill. The structural geology of the deposit is complex on both a region- al and mine scale. The reserves are located on the eastern limb of the Syncline Hill syncline. The beds on this limb of the structure strike to the northeast and dip to the northwest from 30 to 45 degrees. A major reverse fault separates the reserves into an upper and lower deposit. Numerous smaller normal and reverse faults cut the deposit, requiring a flexible mine plan. At the Monarch quarry, the Castle Butte Member con- sists of two stratigraphic units. The Upper unit (Mlu) is a thick-bedded, fine-grained crystalline dolomitic limestone from 0 to 300 feet (0-90 m) thick. The unit generally has an Si02 content of less than 4 percent. A bedded chert horizon and a karst horizon at the base of the unit locally raise the Si02 content as high as 20 percent. The underlying Quarry Stone unit (Mlq) is a light-gray, massive, bedded, calcilutite/micrite limestone from 90 to 130 feet (27-40 m) thick. The Quarry Stone unit is remarkably uniform chemically throughout it's entire thickness. Average analysis is CaC03 - 95 percent, MgC03 - 3.5 percent, and Si02 - 0.5 percent. The Footwall dolomite unit (Mld) of the Redcliff Member of the Leadville Limestone is a dark gray to black, blocky, medium-to-thick-bedded, calcilutite/micrite dolomite from 150 to 180 feet thick (46-55 m). The upper 100 feet (30 m) of the unit is a low-silica facies with an average Si02 content of less than 0.5 percent. MgC03 content is con- sistent at 39.8 percent throughout the upper 50 feet (15 m) of the unit but varies from 15 percent to 39.8 percent in the lower portion (50 to 100 feet [15-30 m]) of the low-silica facies. The lowest portion of the unit, 100 feet (30 m) to base of unit is high in silica and is not considered chemical grade. Current in-place, surface-minable reserves at the quarry are estimated to be 14 million short tons (st) (13 million metric tons [mt]) of limestone and 50 million st (45 million mt) of dolomite. A 1.4 million st (1.3 million mt) stockpile of finely crushed limestone is also present on the property. Colorado Lime is presently processing approximately 2,000 st (1,800 mt) per month from the crushed limestone stockpile. This material is pulverized and sold to underground coal mines for use as rock dust, some of this product is also used for environmental purposes. Limestone mining is scheduled to resume in spring of 2000.

Jan 1, 2001

By Justus B. Deen, Randy Peterson

INTRODUCTION The General Chemical Soda Ash Operation located near Green River, Wyoming produces about 4.5 Mt of trona per year. In July 1989, Mine Ventilation Services Inc. performed a ventilation survey of this complex trona mine which had thirteen active panels spread over 36 square kilometers. The ventilation survey and subsequent study showed that the intake shaft air velocities were at their practical limits (Wallace and Rogers, 1987). The need for additional intake capacity was immediate. The ventilation network modeling delineated the best location for this new intake shaft as it applied to the 5 year ventilation plan. Unfortunately, this location, 6.5 kilometers from the soda ash processing plant, would make heating this intake air very costly. Presently, the intake air is heated by heat exchangers which use waste heat from the plant. Air heating during the winter months is necessary for miner comfort and to prevent potential freezing of water lines in the mine. It was decided to examine the feasibility of heating the air geothermally by coursing it through an old production panel. This method of air heating has been used in this region with good results at the Stauffer Chemical Operation (now Rhone-Poulenc) (Moore, 1985). In 1990, a geothermal heating study examined four different production shaft/panel configurations and a workable design was found. The operators at the General Chemical Soda Ash Operations acted on this design and began raise boring a ventilation shaft in the Spring of 1991. This paper describes the ventilation system, briefly, and the geothermal heating studies performed. Findings of the 1990 geothermal studies are then compared to field data acquired in the Winter of 1992. THE VENTILATION SYSTEM The ventilation system at General Chemical had four shafts serving the mining horizon in July 1989; three of these shafts are located at the Northwest end of the mine. The active work areas had progressed to the South over the past years and supplying ventilation has become increasingly difficult. The 6.1 meter diameter #3 Production shaft and the men and materials compartment of the 6.1 meter diameter #2 Split Shaft had reached their air velocity limits. Conversely, the 4.6 meter diameter #5 Exhaust Shaft was under utilized. Ventilation studies showed the conversion of the 3.7 meter diameter #1 Exhaust Shaft to an intake would provide adequate intake capacity for two years. The next option to improve ventilation was the addition of an intake shaft at the southeast part of the mine at the intersection of H Mains South(H-M-S)and J Mains East(J-M-E) (See Figure 1). A service shaft has been planned for the extreme Southeast end in the late 1990's. Ventilation network analyses showed this interim intake shaft would have to be at least 2.5 meters in diameter to postpone the service shaft construction beyond 1995. The greater the size of the borehole, the further the construction could be postponed. In October 1991, General Chemical commissioned the 4.57 meter diameter #4 Ventilation Shaft near the junction of H-M-S and J-M-E as shown in Figure 1. The L95 panel would be used for air heating as described in the geothermal heating section to follow. GEOTHERMAL STUDIES Geothermal heating studies were performed by MVS Inc. in May 1990. Using a modified code of CLIMSIM, an underground mine climatic simulation model, several different shaft/panel configurations were examined to see which would provide adequate air heating during the winter months. CLIMSIM simulates heat flow into a single underground airway. The program was used to evaluate the heat flow to and from the airway surface and to calculate the resulting change in dry bulb temperature of the ventilating air. CLIMSIM uses inlet air conditions, airway characteristics, and rock thermal properties input by the user to predict the variation of psychrometric and thermodynamic parameters along an underground airway.

Jan 1, 1993

By M. C. Stuttle

MDL Rock Lasers has undertaken successful mapping trials of abandoned mine workings using its underground cavity scanning system. The work was being performed for Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM), Australia's largest gold producer. MDL Rock Lasers supplies underground surveying systems to the mining and quarrying industry KCGM's Fimiston Super Pit, located in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia, is Australia's largest open-pit gold operation. Fimiston's final pit design is expected to be 3.7 km (2.3 miles) long, 1.5 km (0.9-miles ) wide and 540 m (1,770 ft) deep. During the early days of Australian mining, underground operations were labor intensive. Mining was selective and generally narrow stopes were mostly backfilled. Improved processing technology and mine mechanization during the 1970s and 1980s has permitted larger scale operations to adopt less selective underground-stope operations. The "super pit" concept was a logical step for mining companies working toward economies of scale. However, the industry recognized that there was no precedent for excavating a 500-m- (1,640-ft-) deep open pit through ground previously affected by old workings. To appreciate the geotechnical challenge facing KCGM, it is necessary to consider that under the pro¬posed area at the open pit, stoping reached a level of 1 km (0.6 miles) and was supported by more than 2,000 km (1,240 miles) of development headings. The company was fortunate because plans were available for the Golden Mile underground operations. The existing plans were interpreted by the mine's geotechnical team and computer models were constructed of the underground workings. These models can be imported into three-dimensional mine planning packages, such as the Vulcan's Unix-based software, Envisage, to assist analysis and design. This prior knowledge of the workings provided the focus for investigating and confirming ground conditions using probe drilling. After several iterations of drilling, followed by detailed analysis, several decisions were made relating to the nature of the ground and the mining approach to be taken. It was recognized that the stope models were not perfect due to hu¬man error, lack of original survey information and progressive deterioration in ground conditions. It also became apparent that the sole reliance on probe drilling was inefficient in terms of time and quality of information. This was particularly true in complex areas where stopes are in close proximity. A major concern was the presence of open stopes (voids). In many cases, stopes consist of combinations of filled and void sections. The condition of pillars within these underground workings is extremely important. In time, pillars collapse and voids will propagate in upward and lateral directions. So systems needed to be developed that allowed rapid and accurate verification of ground conditions. KCGM was introduced to MDL Rock Lasers while investigating technology for underground mining. The two companies decided to use the C-ALS, MDL Rock Laser's underground laser, cavity scanning system, to improve the management of mining through affected ground. This system was to be used in conjunction with probe drilling and void mapping activities. A field test in one area of the Fimiston Mine verified the capability of the C-ALS system to quickly and efficiently assist in this decision making process. The C-ALS scanner features lightweight, carbon fi¬ber alignment rods from Measurement Devices Ltd.'s (MDL) Boretrak MKII. This is a borehole deviation system that stops the two axis measurement head rotating and lowers the system down a borehole. The scanner is deployed by a 110-mm (4.3-in.) borehole, up, down or sideways. The operator can then carry out vertical and horizontal plan section scans at any user specified ARC (an angular increment of 2°) or the distance between two points on the ARC (CHORD) increments. Windows '95 software enables the operator to control the cavity scanner remotely, surveying the area in real time. The system makes data quick and convenient.

Jan 1, 1999

By John O. Marsden

Process selection is the systematic development of the optun.m metal extraction route for a particular feed matenal and has two main objectives: (1) to optimize project economics, principally a function of gold recovery, throughput rate and processing costs, and to develop a process that satisfies all of the proct requirements including, for example, political and environmental considerations.

Jan 1, 1992

By Charles A. Horne

Grinding mill circuits used for particle size reduction of mineral ores commonly use cyclones as primary classifiers. Typically, several individual cyclones are installed in a cluster (Fig. 1) where they can easily be added or valved-out of operation in order to balance classifier capacity with fluctuations in tonnage and recirculating loads as ore grades and hardness vary.

Jan 1, 1993

By James M. Williams, Michael E. Zellars, Arthur J. Roth

INTRODUCTION Our present estimates of world P205 consumption for all uses show an average annual growth rate of approximately 1.9% per year. The estimated 1985 consumption of 41.5 million tonnes of P205 is predicted to increase to 57.1 million tonnes of P205 by the year 2005, which represents a growth from 157.7 million tonnes in 1985 to 217 million tonnes of phosphate rock in 2005. The present situation of oversupply and extremely weak phosphate product prices is, however, expected to continue in the short term and a normal supply/demand balance may not be achieved until after 1990. The growth in P205 demand, in conjunction with the higher cost of replacing low cost mines as they are depleted, will place economic pressure on world farm economies through the increased cost of phosphate fertilizers. The availability of rock supply is not the challenge; rather, it is the economics of new rock supply. This economic challenge of providing new rock supply is by no means limited to the United States. Even in centrally controlled economies, the cost of rock from domestic mines of marginal quality and economic viability, coupled with burdensome infra¬structure requirements, may result in tonnage additions at very high cost. Although government subsidies to offset higher production cost is a factor in some countries, world production in the next 20 years will be directed, if not governed, by economic factors. Established infrastructure, good quality reserves, and existing operations will provide a competitive advantage for new prod¬uction. It is our opinion that the current world supply structure will remain relatively stable through 2005, in that most of the traditional suppliers will retain supply roles. U.S. rock production, although it is not expected to grow beyond the present level, will still be a major contributor to world supply. Although dramatic changes within mining, fertilizer production and farm economics may appear disruptive, the current supply scenario will, in general, continue with the major issue being production economics. WORLD DEMAND Demand for P205 by region in the world has been estimated using projections of population, crops and yield, arable land, economic and other data as a basis for future demand projec¬tions by Blue-Johnson and Associates, our col¬laborators on a recent multi-client study. Non-fertilizer P205 demands were estimated in the same general manner. These estimates of future demand are based on an assumption of reasonable world political and economic stabil¬ity, debt repayment requirements maintained at workable levels, and resolution of problems in the agricultural economy to a point where normal supply/demand forces can interact freely to provide a basis for continued P205 supply. The results of these studies indicated an average growth rate of 1.9% per year through the year 2005. This growth could be as low as 1.5% per year, or as high as 2.5% per year. It is our opinion that the estimated rate of 1.9% per year is most probable. This moderate growth rate considers both the major economic constraints facing the world agricultural industry today and the general problem of affordability of fertilizers and other crop inputs. WORLD SUPPLY There are adequately defined world reserves of phosphate rock today to provide supply well into the future, even at much higher levels of demand than presently projected. Using the U.S. Bureau of Mines estimates, which are based on stringent criteria for definition of reserves, the present world reserves base is approximately 35 billion tonnes. Identified resources raise the potential for production by orders of magnitude. Potential resources based on geological trends, and including offshore deposits, would again result in orders of magnitude increases in rock resources. Morocco leads the world in reserves base with approxi¬mately 21 billion tonnes. The U.S. is second, followed by the Republic of South Africa and Russia. These four countries control about 87%

Jan 1, 1986