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By A. T. Shurick

THE NRA Administrator's casual reference to the coal code as the next "pineapple" to be fixed was a conservative estimate of his job. This thorny and adamantine morsel now looms as a critical test of NRA. A failure in coal supplies would have the gravest potentialities in the Administration's program at this time. And the loss of prestige from a breakdown of the enforcement machinery in this initial large-scale test of strength would accentuate the incipient indications of insurrection in other directions. General Johnson has had a difficult task. It involves problems festering for a quarter of a century. A succes¬sion of Presidents have been glad to tide over their respective regimens with inconclusive expedients; they have been baffled by the complexities of the technical angles and hopelessly irreconcilable concepts of powerful conflicting interests with large issues at stake.

Jan 1, 1933

By AIME AIME

THE following Officers, Directors, and guests were present: Herbert Hoover, A. R. Ledoux, Henry S. Drinker, Edwin Ludlow, Samuel A. Taylor, Charles F: Rand, William M. Corse, Arthur S.. Dwight, Glen H. Clevenger, L. W. Francis, F. G. Cottrell, Bradley Stoughton, Percy E. Barbour, E. P. Mathewson, Dorsey A. Lyon, Archibald Douglas, A. D. Flinn, RobertLinton, James F. Kemp, William Y. Westervelt, J. W. Richards, W. L. Saunders, George Otis Smith, Thomas T. Read, J..C. Murray, Ralph Arnold. A Committee on Mine Equipment was appointed composed as follows: Graham Bright, chairman, William Kelly, Howard N. Eavenson, R. E. Hobart, and S. P. Rumsey. B. D. Saklatwalla was added to the Committee on Miscellaneous Metals and W. Spencer Hutchinson was added to the Committee on Mining Geology. A revised budget for 1921 was approved. A petition duly signed to amend Section 1., of Article III of the Constitution, increasing the initiation fees from ten dollars to twenty dollars, was approved by the Board.

Jan 1, 1920

By John V. Beall

Monotonous flood planes flanked either side of the road as we drove in the embassy car from the airport to downtown Seoul. We crossed the brown waters of the Hann River, meandering over mud flats. A great, gnarled tree bore beautiful fall colors of gold. "That is a Ginko Tree, the oldest living fossil, probably a hundred million years old;" said Jean W. Pressler. Compared to other cities of the Far East, the traffic in and around Seoul was sedate. Few motorcycles or bicycles, and little superfluous horn tooting. "This is the best season in Korea. We have long beautiful springs and falls," said Pressler, chief of the mining branch of USAID, and he continued with a briefing on the country.

Jan 8, 1969

By D. W. Levinson, L. E. Tanner

DURING the course of an investigation of the zirconium-iron-tin system the zirconium-iron system was reexamined up to 55 pct* Fe. The alloys pre- visible melting3 and X-ray diffraction studies were made of samples of the alloys. The ferromagnetic properties of ZrFe2were determined by Professor P. W. Selwood* using a modified Faraday balance.4 The zirconium-rich portion of the phase diagram is presented in Fig. 1 and compared with the work of Hayes et al.1 The maximum solubility of iron in ß is somewhat decreased while the eutectic temperature is raised. There seemed to be no change in the eutectic composition of 16 pct Fe. Since the base material was so low in iron content, it was possible to establish the maximum solubility in a between 0.017 and 0.025 pct Fe at the eutectoid temperature. The observation of fine ZrFe, particles in the micro structure of a specimen of 0.012 pct Fe alloy quenched from 700°C indicated that the solubility drops below this composition at 700° C and lower. Further study was made of the intermediate phase ZrFe2. wallbaum5 identified the compound initially as ZrFe2 with a C 15 (MgCu2) structure, placing it at 55 pct Fe stoichiometrically. Hayes et al.1 believed they found the phase at about 47.2 pct Fe and called it Zr2Fe3 but reverted to ZrFe, in the discussion of their paper.6 Jordan and Duwez7 confirmed Wallbaum's work as well as finding the same single-phase structure to about 62.3 pct Fe or Zr0-61 Fe2-18. In order to establish the ternary phase relations in the zirconium-iron-tin systema the exact position of this phase had to be known. This was accomplished by X-ray diffraction, visible melting, and metallographic techniques. Elliott8 obtained a single-phase ZrFe2 X-ray diffraction pattern from an alloy of about 55 pct Fe. This was confirmed in the present study with an alloy of 54.81 pct Fe. However, extra lines (attributable to a or ß zirconium) were found in diffraction patterns of the 47.42 and 49.83 pct Fe alloys. The melting characteristics of these same alloys were studied by suspending 47.42, 49.83, and 54.81 pct

Jan 1, 1960

By AIME AIME

PURSUANT to a recommendation made by the Section delegates at their conference at the Annual Meeting of the A.I.M.E. last February, the Directors, at their meeting on March 15, 1944, appointed a committee charged with the duty of investigating the present status of licensing and registration of engineers, and to make a report on the whole subject for the information of the mining fraternity. The committee consisted of E. W. Ellis, chairman, H. D. Keiser, Henry T. Mudd, J. J. Croston, and Simon Strauss. Messrs. Keiser and Strauss were unable to assist in the work of the committee, and Mr. Mudd was forced to resign in July, his place being taken by A. F. Greaves-Walker. Able assistance was given the committee by T. Keith Legare, executive secretary of the National Council of State Boards of Engineering Examiners, and by Ed. ward Larson, executive secretary of the National Society of Professional Engineers. The accompanying somewhat condensed version of the report of Mr. Ellis's committee, dated Oct. 15, 1944, is confined to facts rather than to recommendations. The "Model Law" to which reference is made was first drafted by repre¬sentatives of six national engineering societies in 1911. It has since been amended many times, the latest version dated June 1943 is recommended to the State Licensing Boards as a pattern for formulating or amending state laws. A copy of the "Model Law" in pamphlet form will be sent to any member on request from A.I.M.E. headquarters while the supply lasts. The report:

Jan 1, 1945

By Ling Yang, John Henderson

Self-diffusion coefficients of copper in molten copper have been measured by the capillary reservoir method in the temperature range 1140o to 1260°C. The results can be represented by the equation D = [(1.46 * 0.01) x 10-3) exp [(-9710 * 710)/RT] cm2/sec. The energy of activation agrees within the limit of experimental uncertainty with that for viscous flow. The relationship between the diffusivity and coefficient of viscosity is best described by the equation D = kT/4pnr cm2/sec. MEASUREMENT was made of the self-diffusion coefficient of copper in molten copper in the temperature range 1413º to 1533ºK, using the capillary reservoir technique and CU64 as the radioactive tracer.The procedures for filling the capillaries, making the diffusion run and evaluating Dcu from the counting results were the same as described previously.1,2 All experimental operations involving the melt were carried out in a purified argon atmosphere. A graphite crucible, enclosed in a McDanel tube, was used as a container for the melt because of its satisfactory nature as a refractory material and the low solubility of carbon in copper. Graphite was also used for the capillary material. A McDanel thermocouple sheath, to which graphite radiation shields were affixed, was used to hold the capillaries. By moving this sheath through a rubber seal at the top of the McDanel tube, the capillaries could be lowered into or raised out of the melt. A Globar furnace with a constant temperature zone (± 2°C) of 2 in. was used to heat the assembly. The temperature of the furnace was the equilibrium value corresponding to a given setting of the transformer. Temperature was measured with a Pt-10 pct Rh/Pt thermocouple and varied during a run

Jan 1, 1962

By L. A. Panek, F. D. Wang, M. C. Sun

A method of stability analysis of underground opening by the limiting equilibrium approach is presented. The Coulomb shear failure criterion is employed to find possible fracture surfaces and to evaluate the shear strengths along them. The normal stresses required for the calculation of shear strength, and the shear stresses for the calculation of total shear force along the fracture surfaces, are obtained by the finite-element method of plane-strain analysis. The factor of safety against Coulomb shear failure is calculated as the ratio of the shear strength to the shear force along a fracture surface, similar to the practice in slope stability analysis. Four shapes of openings are analyzed, with three ratios of horizontal lithostatic stress and four coefficients of internal friction. The critical fracture surfaces found by this method of analysis are consistent with the arching of roofs and slabbing of ribs commonly observed.

Jan 1, 1972

G. A. Moore—The tin-fusion method has been a very favorable possibility for many years. The authors apparently have settled the question that delayed the method for a long time by showing that no hydrogen is absorbed in the tin. This, of course, is very important. I want to make a few remarks concerning the absolute accuracy of analysis, which must be the final basis for deciding among the various methods. From the figures in the paper, there seems to be some re-maining slight discrepancy on the actual amount of hydrogen present in various samples which may be presumed essentially identical. (This is of the order of the precision of individual analyses but appears in averaged results.) From the analyst's viewpoint, the tally of hydrogen content can be regarded as occurring in three portions. First is a large portion which comes off easily and automatically during sample storage and later on heating in the apparatus. This is fairly easily analyzed. Second is an item which may be either positive or negative in the tally sheet. In warm or hot evolution, this is a portion which, in practice, can never be re-

Jan 1, 1951

A record $18.7 billion worth of metals, non- metals and fuels was produced in the U.S. during 1962, according to a year-end estimate from the USBM. The 1962 total value, based on preliminary statistics compiled by the Bureau, was nearly $600 million more than in 1961. Most minerals gained both in value and volume of production during 1962 according to information collected by the Bureau. All mineral fuels except anthracite showed increases. Among nonmetallic minerals- other than fuels-gains exceeded losses by two to one. Metal production held steady as gains and losses balanced.

Jan 2, 1963

By A. S. Odeh

During the last few years, several authors1-6 have advanced mathematical solutions, both exact and approximate, to the pressure behavior of a well producing from a region bounded by a circular discontinuity. The most recent solutions were reported by Carter, and by Bixel and van Poollen. Varter solved the appropriate equations analytically. Bixel and van Poollen reported a numerical solution and provided correlation charts for the interpretation of flow tests; their method uses an overlay technique and is valid for wide ranges of mobility and storage capacity ratios. The mobility ratio is defined as the ratio between k/p of the two zones, and the capacity ratio is defined as the ratio between $c of the two zones. We have developed independently an analytic solution, programmed for the CDC 1604, that agreed with Carter's.'1 The same differential equation, assumptions, boundary, and initial conditions were used. We ran 30 drawdowns and 30 buildups of a unit capacity ratio and of varied mobility ratios. We also varied the radial distances to the discontinuity, and the radii of drainage. We examined the results and obtained correlations that were simple to apply and useful in flow test interpretation. The results and the correlations reported here in graphical form allow the determination of the mobility of the two zones and the radial distance to the discontinuity. They eliminate the need to fit field data to a curve as is required in the overlay technique.6 Thus, the advantages of the present correlations are that they require less effort and they provide a unique answer. They also provide guidelines for selecting the parts of the flow test plot to be used in the interpretations. Moreover, the results obtained from the programmed analytic solution define the time intervals where the approximate solution reported by Hurstl and discussed by Larkin2 are applicable. Normal buildup and drawdown plots resulted in an early straight line, a long transition zone and a late (second) straight line. However, the second straight line will not occur if the drainage radius is not at least 10 times the radial distance to the discontinuity. The mobility of the imer and outer zones can be calculated from the slopes of the first and second straight lines, respectively, by the normal methods of the flow test analysis. We found that the radial distance to the discontinuity may be determined from the abscissa value for the point of intersection of the extensions of the two straight lines. Results similar to some of these were reported by Adams et aL7 The approximate solution compared favorably with the exact one during the first and second straight-line periods. However, during the transition zone, deviation occurred between the two solutions. Discussion of Figures Figs. 1 through 7 summarize the results of this investigation. On Figs. 3 through 7 there appears the equation of each respective plot. In this paper the mobility ratio M is defined as klp2/kzpl, where subscripts 1 and 2 refer respectively to the inner and outer zones, and dimensionless time = t, = 6.32 X In the investigation, M ranged from 0.25 to 50;

Jan 1, 1970

By W. A. Hockings, D. W. Fuerstenau, A. L. Mular

This paper briefly describes a simple air pycno-meter and its use for rapid determination of the composition of mixtures of solid particles. Research on such problems as the pelletizing of solids, the mixing of solid particles, and the comminution of mixtures can be simplified by means of this analytical tool. THEORY OF OPERATION Liquid pycnometers1 are commonly employed to measure volumes. These devices are time consuming and sometimes give inconsistent results. The liquid used in the pycnometer may have an undesired influence on the material to be measured; moreover, complete displacement of air by the liquid is seldom

Jan 1, 1963

Elected Died 1903 * ADAMS, CHARLES C. 1905 1884 *ADDY, MATTHEW 1896 1894 *ALLFN R B 1896 1874 *AMIOT, H 1892 1886 *AMSLER, CARL 1894 1895 *ÅNGSTROM, CARL 1901 1895 *ARMSTRONG, JOHN F 1898 1882 *ARNOLDS, HUGO 1886 1875 *ASHBURNER, CHARLES A 1889 1872 *ASIIBURNER, WILLIAM 1887 1883 *ATKINS, C M , JR 1885 1897 *AYERS, WILLIAM 1898 1885 *BABCOCK, GEO H 1893 1884 *BAILEY, EDWARD 1889 1880 *BAILEY, JACKSON 1887 1900 *BALLOU, FRANKLIN 1903 1886 *BARNES, F W 1892

Jan 1, 1910

By E. P. Pfleider

Important economic planning by industries, companies, financial firms and governments is predicated on estimates of future growth potential. Prior to the passage of the Taconite Amendment by the people of the State in November 1964, various admittedly conservative forecasts were made of the future of Minnesota's iron ore industry. Since that date, 3 new taconite plants are under construction, 2 are being expanded, one has just gone "on stream," and a seventh is in the design stage. These plants have a total capacity of about 35 million tons of pellets annually. The pessimism of 1964 today is being replaced by unbounded optimism. In the light of such recent developments, it becomes essential to update forecasts related to production, employment and capital investments. New projections show 50 to 58 million tons of pellet production from Minnesota by 1975. This tonnage, together with some 6 to 8 million of natural ores, should provide an annual full-time employment of 15,000 by the mining companies, plus 700 in related railroad and power producing activities and 1000 in plant construction. Total capital investment in new plants should reach $1.5 billion by 1975 and $2 billion by 1990. These current estimates indicate that the conservative goals as set in 1964 for the year 1990 should actually be achieved by 1975 or 1980. BACKGROUND Various forecasts1,2,3 have been made of the future consumption and production of iron ores within the United States. The most recent of these is by Harrison,1 delivered at the American Mining Congress meeting in Las Vegas in October. His estimates reflect the latest iron ore developments on a world wide front as well as the accelerating trend toward pellets. Minnesota's Natural Resources council prepared a detailed report in 1964 outlining the various factors that affect the future of Minnesota's iron ore industry. It presented estimates predicated on the

Jan 1, 1967

By Claus Goetzel

THE object of this investigation was to determine whether silver alloys could be used instead of the currently employed insert of high-expansion AVERAGE COEFFICIENT PER DE G. C. OVEN RANGE 20° To 200° C. Pure aluminum '31.6 X 10-6 Cast low-expansion Si-Cu-Ni-Al piston alloy 20.0 X 10-6 High-expansion austenitic Cu-Ni cast iron 19.3 X 10-6 Cast steel (0.25-0.35 C, 0.10-1.0 Mn) 12.6 X 10-6 Cast iron (3.15 total C, 2.16 Si) 12.8 X 10-6 Pure silver 18.9 X 10-6 austenitic ferronickel alloy, to reduce the wear of ring grooves in light metal pistons. A typical example of a piston containing a ferronickel insert is shown in Fig. 1. The high coefficient of expansion of silver made it worthy of consideration, while the small size of the insert would render it use feasible in Germany as an emergency in is- tire. The coefficients of linear expansion of several metals and alloys are as shown in the table above. Obviously the melting point of the insert must be high enough to prevent it from melting when the light alloy is cast around it. This imposes a lower limit of about 850° C. for the solidus of the silver alloy. Pure silver melts at about 961° C., so that the Fin. 1.-PISTON CONTAINING tolerable depression in the solidus is rather FERRONICKEL INSERT. small. To avoid deformation of the insert during use a Brinell hardness number of at least 60 appears necessary.

Jan 1, 1937

By Joseph Moses Botbol

In passing the judgments essential to his trade, the geologist may be assisted by two new methods. These will enable him to (1) arrange the minerals of a selected group of base metal mining districts in the order of their typicalities and (2) compute the degree of mineralogic association between the model so derived and a district external to the model. It must be remembered, of course, that the methods discussed in this article are no more powerful than the structure of the model used and the data available. The geologist who employs these techniques must still exercise his expertise

Jan 1, 1970

By R. W. Bartlett

DISILICIDE coatings, MeSi2, on refractory metals are usually grown by a solid-state diffusion reaction similar to the parabolic oxidation of metals. Two or more silicide compounds occur in each of the binary silicon-refractory metal systems. When an adequate source of silicon is available during the coating process, the lower silicide compounds are usually not formed.1 However, during service application of the coated refractory metal, continued heating causes further diffusion and growth of the lower silicides. A study of the growth kinetics of the lower silicides in the molybdenum and tungsten binary systems with silicon was previously reported.2 The present study is concerned with the growth kinetics of Ta5Si3 and Cb5Si3, formed as conjugate layers between TaSi2/Ta and CbSi2/Cb diffusion couples, respectively. Diffusion couples consisting of disilicide-coated tantalum and columbium sheet coupons were subjected to diffusion heat treatments, cross-sectioned, and scanned by an electron-microprobe analyzer to determine the relative X-ray intensity profiles. These profiles correspond closely to concentration profiles for the constituents, and were used to identify phases and locate phase boundaries. The analysis of a single specimen after a diffusion-anneal provides only one value for the Me5Si3 phase thickness, corresponding to the time and temperature of the diffusion treatment. Consequently, each isothermal curve showing the rate of accumulation or depletion of silicide phases required several samples with identical diffusion temperatures but different diffusion times. The disilicide coatings were prepared by pyrolizing commercially pure silane in a hydrogen carrier gas. The hydrogen was purified by passage through a palladium membrane. Commercially pure tantalum and columbium sheet metal coupons, 0.005 by $ by 2 in., were used. All of the coated specimens for each system were prepared together in a single group in order to minimize coating variations among individual specimens. During pyrolysis, the brightness temperature was maintained at 1200°C. With suitable flow rates at this temperature, only the disilicides of tantalum and columbium were formed in detectable amounts. Coated specimens were subjected to diffusion an-neals in a tube furnace with automatic proportional control within ±10°C. A H2-Ar mixture, deoxidized and dried over anhydrous magnesium perchlorate, was used to prevent oxidation during the diffusion anneal. Diffusion couples were cross-sectioned, polished and examined with an A.R.L. electron-microprobe X-ray analyzer. Both metal constituents in each specimen were simultaneously scanned using a 1-p beam spot size and either 1- or 2-µ steps. Analyses were performed using the Ka radiation of columbium and silicon, and the La, radiation of tantalum. For all specimens, an acceleration voltage of 30 kv was used, and integration was made against the specimen current. LiF and A DP monochrometers were used to isolate characteristic radiations. Three or more traverses were made on each specimen. The intensity scales were adjusted using the constituent metals and standard samples of the silicide compounds which had been verified by X-ray diffraction. The relative intensity profiles were used directly, in conjunction with the standard samples, to identify compounds and phase boundaries. The stoichiometries differ considerably between the silicide compounds in both systems, and the homogeneity range for these silicide compounds is narrow. These characteristics result in marked differences in relative intensities of the fluorescing elements—differences which permit ready identification of phases and phase boundaries. Projections of both electron back-scattered images and characteristic

Jan 1, 1967

By H. Warlimont

In recent investigations of the microstructure and crystallographic features of martensite by electgon microscopy,', '9 thin films (about 50 to l000A in thickness) have been used as specimens. It was found by W. Pitschl ,2 that the lattice relationships between the supefiaturated fcc matrix and the martensite formed in thin films were different from those observed after transformation in bulk material. Corresponding differences are to be expected in nucleation and in reaction kinetics in the formation of martensite in thin films, but have not yet been reported. In the course of the preparation of thin films of iron-base alloys for investigation by electron microscopy it was observed that films of alloys, whose martensite formation temperature (Ms) was below room temperature, formed martensite during the electrochemical thinning process conducted at or above room temperature. The chemical compositions and approximate bulkM,-temperatures of the three materials on which this observation was made are listed in Table I. The alloys were vacuum-melted from high-purity metals. It can be seen that the effect occurred in alloys that contain only sub-stitutional components as well as in alloys that contain carbon as an interstitial solute. The appearance of martensite formed in this manner is illustrated in Fig. 1, which represents a polished film of alloy No. 1 at XI0 magnification. The martensite plates can be recognized by their surface relief effects. In addition, heavily strained (owrinkledo) austenite can be seen near the edges of the film where it is thinnest and transformation stresses or strains can be accommodated by plastic deformation most easily. The nonuniform distribution of transformed regions is probably due to the varying thickness of the film. These observations were common to all materials listed in Table I. Because effects of supercooling or straining can

Jan 1, 1962

By L. A. Updegraff

Before discussing the application of capacitance for the measurement of moisture content in a moving stream of coal it might be well to first give a brief description of the process and then show how it can be applied to the coal industry. A capacitor may be described as a device having two conductors separated by an insulator, the conductors hereafter being designated as a test cell or test plates and the insulator as the dielectric. Capacitance, therefore, is a measure of the ability of a capacitor to store an electrical charge. Two basic factors that affect capacitance are the dimensions of the capacitor and the dielectric constant of the insulator. Capacitor dimensions which affect its capacity are the area A of the conductive surface, and the distance d between plates. Capacitance is inversely proportional to the distance between plates and directly proportional to area A, so if capacitance is indicated as C and the dielectric constant as K the equation for capacitance would be C = AK/d. The dielectric constant can be described as the ratio of the actual capacitance of any given material to that of a vacuum, which is unity. In industrial applications the area of the plates remains constant as also does the distance between them, leaving the dielectric constant as the only variable to affect the capacitance measurement. Figure 1 is a schematic diagram of an r-f excited capacitance bridge in which a test cell is part of the circuit. This bridge consists of four capacitors in two pairs connected across an a-c voltage source. In one side of the circuit the two capacitors are fixed but in the other side they are variable, one being the rebalance capacitor operated by the servo motor and the other the test plates between which the dielectric passes. Capacity of the plates is a function of the dielectric constant of the material between them and is measured at radio frequency. Within the recording instrument is an r-f oscillator and a 60 c ps modulator. The radio frequency signal is generated by the oscillator, modulated by a 60 cps wave, and sent to the bridge. Therefore the signal entering the capacitive bridge is a radio frequency carrier with a 60 cycle envelope, If the bridge is in balance as the signal enters there would be no voltage drop and so no output by the detector. As long as the dielectric constant remains the same the bridge will stay in balance. However, any change in the dielectric constant, which in this case would be a change in moisture content, would affect the bridge. Higher moisture increases the capacity of the test cell which causes less voltage to develop across it causing imbalance of the bridge. This in turn causes a radio frequency signal to appear at the detector. Output from the detector is a 60 cycle ripple which is in proportion to the imbalance of the circuit. A 60 cycle amplifier boosts the detector signal to enough power to drive the servo motor which positions the recording pen and also rotates the variable capacitor, to which it is mechanically connected, to bring the bridge back in balance. An increase in moisture causes the servo motor to rotate in one direction, but a decrease causes imbalance in the opposite direction, and thus rotates the motor in that direction. This brings the bridge back in balance and stops the motor. The bridge shown in Figure 1 has been modified so as to provide a wide range of adjustments. Coarse and fine span adjustments located in the recording instrument are set to govern the amount of pen movement for a given change in capacitance. A measuring head unit contains coarse and fine zero adjustments for

Jan 1, 1961

By Paul C. Merritt

Samuel Hopkins, an 18th century inventor from Philadelphia, has been little noted nor long remembered by History, but it was he who on July 31, 1790, obtained what no other man can ever achieve -the first patent issued by the Government of the United States. Signed by President George Washington, the patent guaranteed to Hopkins the protection of the American Government for his "improvement, not known or used before, . . . in the making of Potash . . . by a new Apparatus and Process." The patent itself is no longer important, but it serves as a milestone in the development of an industry that is now rapidly moving to fulfill its role as a mineral to feed the world. Potash ranks as one of the oldest products of Man, having been used as a condiment by the habitants of Gaul a thousand years before Athens achieved its Golden Age of culture. By Hopkins' time, the uses of potash had changed considerably, going primarily into glass-making, tanning, soap, and explosives, yet the same sources and techniques of manufacturing potash used during the earlier 2000 years-that is, leaching of plant ashes in iron pots with water, followed by water evaporation and crystallization of the potassium salts-were still being used.

Jan 10, 1966

By K. C. Ko, D. A. Pifer

The theory of probability with respect to the failure of structures is discussed. It is shown that the probability of safety, probability of failure, and factor of safety are directly related to each other and that as standard deviation approaches zero, the probability curves approach a unit step function which can be interpreted as the conventional factor of safety. The factor of safety is numerically the ratio of the load to the strength of the material at a particular point or plane in an engineering structure. Mathematically, it can be illustrated as a unit step function undefined at the point where the factor of safety is one (Fig. 1). The uncertainty of variation of soil and rock strengths require factors of safety much higher than those used in other engineering structures. The factors of safety used are generally determined from past experiences with similar structures. However, the factors thus determined do not have any theoretical meaning or do not indicate any relationship to actual safety.' It seems, therefore, logical to develop a system with a sound theoretical basis to obtain a more suitable factor of safety for structures. An application of elementary theory of probability indicates that it is possible to relate this number to theoretical and practical engineering facts.

Jan 1, 1971