Economics of the Mineral Industry - Minnesota's Iron Ore Future

Important economic planning by industries, companies, financial firms and governments is predicated on estimates of future growth potential. Prior to the passage of the Taconite Amendment by the people of the State in November 1964, various admittedly conservative forecasts were made of the future of Minnesota's iron ore industry. Since that date, 3 new taconite plants are under construction, 2 are being expanded, one has just gone "on stream," and a seventh is in the design stage. These plants have a total capacity of about 35 million tons of pellets annually. The pessimism of 1964 today is being replaced by unbounded optimism. In the light of such recent developments, it becomes essential to update forecasts related to production, employment and capital investments. New projections show 50 to 58 million tons of pellet production from Minnesota by 1975. This tonnage, together with some 6 to 8 million of natural ores, should provide an annual full-time employment of 15,000 by the mining companies, plus 700 in related railroad and power producing activities and 1000 in plant construction. Total capital investment in new plants should reach $1.5 billion by 1975 and $2 billion by 1990. These current estimates indicate that the conservative goals as set in 1964 for the year 1990 should actually be achieved by 1975 or 1980. BACKGROUND Various forecasts1,2,3 have been made of the future consumption and production of iron ores within the United States. The most recent of these is by Harrison,1 delivered at the American Mining Congress meeting in Las Vegas in October. His estimates reflect the latest iron ore developments on a world wide front as well as the accelerating trend toward pellets. Minnesota's Natural Resources council prepared a detailed report in 1964 outlining the various factors that affect the future of Minnesota's iron ore industry. It presented estimates predicated on the