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By D. J. de Beer

South Africa had a late start with rapid prototyping (RP), with the first system being available in 1991. Up to 1994 only three systems were available in SA. Through active research participation from the CSIR and a number of universities, supported by technology transfer programmes and industry awareness workshops, adoption of RP technologies started to grow. Internationally, RP grew to the extent that several country-based member organizations were formed, and an initiation meeting of the Global Alliance of RP Associations (GARPA) took place during the SME Rapid Conference in Dearborn, USA in 1998. South Africa (SA) was invited under the auspices of the Time Compression Technologies Centre (TCTC) launched by the CSIR, and received an invitation to become a member of GARPA through the launch of a national, inclusive organization. The latter gave rise to a RAPDASA planning/launch meeting held at the University of Stellenbosch, which culminated in the first RAPDASA international conference held in November 2000 at the CSIR, and the election of a first RAPDASA management committee, also at the 1st AGM held during the conference. RAPDASA has been a pillar of strength since then, with an annual international conference being presented. As South Africa?s RP awareness grew through the RAPDASA and independent activities, so did the availability of RP platforms in SA.SA also became a benchmark for other countries/late adopters to follow, as slowly a position of following became a position of leading through innovative applications. The paper highlights SA?s development approach and history, together with the discussion of case studies in various fields. Contribution to the light metals industry will also be discussed. Keywords Rapid prototyping, additive manufacturing, product design, rapid tooling, rapid manufacturing, medical product development.

Jan 1, 2011

Konkola No 3 shaft experienced severe mining-induced stress and time-related deterioration in ground conditions in an area where an over-cut and bench (OCB) mining method was used to extract a shallow dipping wide orebody. This caused an unacceptable risk for safe mining operations to sustain the required levels of production. After a review of the conditions it was decided to change the mining method to CASCADE to recover ore in the affected area and modify the OCB method and use a modified over-cut and bench method (MOCB) for new mining sections. This paper describes the geotechnical criteria included to derive the mining standards for the MOCB. The geotechnical risks are identified and taken into account to develop stope design parameters, stoping sequences and support requirements. A monitoring programme to assess conditions as mining progresses is also discussed.

Jan 1, 2005

By O. A. Olaseinde

The 2101 lean duplex stainless steel has wide potential application in storage, heat exchangers, and in the oil and gas industries. This work investigates the electrochemical behaviour of 2101 duplex stainless steel with an addition of 0.15 wt% ruthenium, using potentiodynamic techniques in 1M H2SO4 at 25º, 40º, 60º, and 80ºC. The microstructures of samples were characterized using optical metallography and scanning electron microscopy. The results showed that the ruthenium addition moved the corrosion potential of alloy 2101 to a more positive potential. All samples containing ruthenium displayed longer passive regions at 25°C and 80°C compared to those without ruthenium. Alloys without ruthenium had higher critical current density (icrit) values when compared to the alloys with ruthenium. Ruthenium additions decreased the passive current densities and inhibited anodic dissolution. At room temperature the corrosion rate of alloys with ruthenium was lower than these without ruthenium.

Jan 1, 2012

By M. M. Makhofane

Anhydrous zirconium tetrafluoride can be used as a precursor for the manufacturing of nuclear-grade zirconium metal. This can be done by fluorinating plasma-dissociated zircon with ammonium bifluoride in a batch reactor. This paper describes the batch process. It was proved that anhydrous zirconium tetrafluoride can be manufactured by this route as confirmed by X-ray diffraction. The process shows potential for scaling up to the kilogram scale and possibly the tonnage scale.

Jan 1, 2012

By P. den Hoed, R. I. Rambiyana

"Four sulphide minerals - pyrite (FeS2), pyrrhotite (Fe1-xS), pentlandite ([Ni,Fe]9S8), and chalcopyrite (CuFeS2) - contain the base metals and most of the iron in concentrates of platinum group metals (PGMs). In the pyrometallurgical processing of PGM concentrates these sulphides form a matte during smelting, and iron and sulphur are removed from the matte during the converting process. This paper discusses the roasting of Merensky concentrate in air before smelting, with the purpose of reducing the matte load to the converter.Roasting tests were conducted in a bench-scale rotary kiln at temperatures from 350°C to 700°C. The concentrate tested contained 17.4% sulphur and consisted of 23% pyrrhotite, 16% pentlandite, 11% chalcopyrite, and 2% pyrite. The particles were fine (d50 = 22 µm), and all the sulphide particles were liberated. Roasting in air at 550°C and 650°C for 20 minutes removed respectively 60% and 70% of the sulphur. The iron in the sulphides was oxidized to Fe3O4 (magnetite) at temperatures below 500°C and to Fe2O3 (haematite) at temperatures above 550°C. At 700°C the bed sintered and copper oxides formed. At temperatures below 450°C oxidation was incomplete: pyrrhotite remained and only 30% of the sulphur was removed. Smelting tests were conducted to assess matte fall and the deportment of copper and nickel to matte. It was evident that roasting resulted in lower matte falls (a drop of approximately 60%) compared with matte falls from unroasted concentrate. The iron and sulphur levels in the matte were reduced to below 3.5% and 22% respectively.This paper also briefly describes the mechanisms by which pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, and pentlandite are oxidized during roasting. For chalcopyrite, the mechanism proceeds through an intermediate solid solution phase, which extends from Cu1.02Fe1.04S2 to Cu2.04Fe0.72S2 to a copper-rich solid solution of bornite (Cu4Fe1.4S4-Cu2S). The oxidation of pentlandite proceeds through a monosulphide solid solution (Ni0.39Fe0.53S-Ni0.74Fe0.15S) to a solid solution of heazlewoodite ([Ni,Fe]3}xS2). These mechanisms are explored in relation to chemical thermodynamics and microstructures."

Jan 1, 2015

By J. Dahner

Total milling cost is composed of energy, liner and grinding media costs. In primary high ball load milling, the grinding media play the biggest role in total milling cost. This cost can be drastically reduced by improving the impact condition inside the mill. The impact condition inside the mill is influenced by shell liner design (as well as feed end and discharge design) and the type of discharge. The improvement of the impact condition will result in a significant decrease in grinding media consumption. The softened impact condition allows for better alloy optimization, resulting in a further reduction in grinding media consumption. Optimized liner design can also improve energy consumption as less energy is wasted in the projection of the grinding media. Magotteaux utilizes tools to simulate and show the grinding media trajectories for shell and end liners. This paper will present some practical examples where the media and energy consumption can be or has been reduced by optimizing liner design. Keywords Comminution, grinding, liner design, grinding media wear.

Jan 1, 2011

By Noel C. Joughin

In making judgements on tolerable levels of risk in industry, and in all spheres of life, it needs to be understood that every action gives rise to risk. Without risk, nothing can be done. Without risk, no economy could be advanced. There is a strong tendency to emphasize the risk at work, but persons who are not working are exposed to a different set of risks. Often persons who are not working face greater risks than persons who are working. Simply, in being alive, one is exposed to the risk of an accident, the risk of contracting a disease, and an extremely diverse variety of other risks. According to the Health and Safety Executive of the UK, it is not possible to have a state of zero risk, because ?a state of zero risk does not exist?. Because zero risk is a physical impossibility, it is not possible to design for a state of zero risk in all engineering design. While the strategic target of achieving zero risk is laudable it does not provide any practical guidance to engineers as to what acceptable limits of risk should be. This causes a significant and real problem in the design for and the management of risk. Without meaningful guidelines, engineers, managers and the authorities often find themselves in disagreement. Thus, it has become essential to establish criteria for tolerable levels of risk and unacceptable levels of risk in order to design and manage engineering systems properly.

Jan 1, 2011

This paper characterizes the copper cycle, that is, the flows of copper entering and leaving the African economy over a one-year period (1994). The major flows over the entire life-cycle of copper are examined; these include production (mining, milling and refining), fabrication of semi-products and manufacturing of finished products, use, and the waste management system. The results reveal that substantial amounts of copper (of order705 Gg/yr) are mined in Africa; of that amount, about 70 per cent is exported following processing, 18 per cent is utilized by African fabricators, and 12 per cent is discarded. The flows of copper products from African fabricators and product imports from other continents exceed product discards by large amounts. This difference, about 0.25 kg Cu/capita/yr on average, is added to in-use stock, largely as wire, plumbing tube, and in electronics. Some 65 per cent of the copper in discard flows is contained in electrical and electronic products, where it is relatively easy to collect and process for reuse. About a third of the copper discard flows known is recycled. The actual percentage is almost certainly higher because of informal (and unrecorded) recycling. Much of the remaining discarded copper is diluted into the municipal waste stream, where recovery and recycling are probably not economically justified. Keywords: material flow analysis, resource management, material budgets, copper, stocks and flows, systems analysis, Africa, developing country

Jan 1, 2003

By D. F. Malan

This paper presents an overview of work conducted over several years to investigate the continuous stope closure profiles recorded in tabular excavations and the use of this data as a hazard indicator. In spite of the brittle nature of the rock, measurements in gold mines and intermediate depth platinum mines revealed a significant time-dependent closure component. Various approaches to simulate the time-dependent closure have been investigated. Viscoelastic theory is able to simulate the time-dependent closure behaviour, but there are subtle problems with the use of this theory as it cannot simulate the failure processes in the rock. To overcome these problems, continuum and discontinuum elasto-viscoplastic models were developed by the authors. Discontinuum models have the advantage of being able to simulate the creep behaviour of prominent discontinuities. Development of these models has led to useful insights into rock mass deformation and has made the numerical simulation of parameters, such as rate of mining, possible for the first time. A number of practical applications for the mining industry have been developed from this study. Among these are the delineation of geotechnical areas using closure data, use of the data as a hazard indicator and to give warning of large collapses in the platinum mines, identification of areas to be preconditioned in the gold mines, measurement of the effectiveness of preconditioning and improved da

Jan 1, 2007

By J. H. Zietsman, M. W. Erwee, P. J. A. Bezuidenhout, Q. G. Reynolds

"Pyrometallurgical furnaces are tapped through tap-holes that are opened with drills and oxygen lances. The lance is often used on its own or as the last step of opening the tap-hole. Interaction of oxygen with molten material inside the tap-hole can occur, and is a phenomenon that is not well understood. As part of a study that focuses on the effect of lancing on flow inside and around the furnace tap-hole, a cold-model validation was done. The validation study focuses on validating the MULTIPHASEINTERFOAM multiphase flow solver in OpenFOAM® for the problem involved. The sensitivity of the model to different materials properties (viscosity and density in particular) is presented with both cold models and the results from flow simulations in OpenFOAM®. IntroductionMany pyrometallurgical operations are carried out in furnaces where molten material accumulates continuously. Once enough material has accumulated and is ready to be removed from the furnace, material is tapped through one or more tap-holes in the furnace. Tap-holes differ significantly in both geometry and materials of construction, depending on the process involved – examples of different types of tap-hole configurations can be found in, for example, Nelson and Hundermark (2014). Tapholes all share one common feature: they are high, wear areas of the furnace. Molten material at high temperature flows through these areas, after which the tap-hole is sealed, usually using tap-hole clay. The purpose of the tap-hole clay is to harden inside the tap-hole and seal it until the next tap.Once ready to tap, a pneumatic drill and/or oxygen lance is used to open the tap-hole. The extent of lancing a furnace tap-hole depends strongly on the type of furnace. In, for example, many blast furnace operations lancing is limited as much as possible, and done only if drilling was not effective. In other operations, such as on small-scale pilot furnaces with short tap-holes, only lancing is used to open the tap-hole."

Jun 1, 2019

By Ö. Erdem

The investment decision making process in the insurance and finance industries is affected by new advances such as simulation techniques. These advances have improved the discounted cash flow method (DCF). In DCF, a dynamic and flexible model construction is not possible because it does not consider uncertain conditions. Each project should be evaluated taking into account the related uncertainties because the related uncertainties determine the characterization of the project. Related uncertainties can be processed in dynamic DCF, which is applicable to both financial and non-financial industries with different kind of uncertainties, such as power generation and petroleum projects. The dynamic DCF method can estimate net present value (NPV) while managing related project uncertainties with a simulation method like Monte Carlo Simulation. The simulation method is preferred because its output is unbiased. Therefore, a more realistic financial evaluation of the project can be concluded. In spite of the improvement of dynamic DCF, this project evaluation method is not used frequently in mining industry. However, the mining industry is ideally suited to this concept because it is highly dependent on estimations such as orebody size and ore grade. During the project evaluation stage, these uncertainties can be included with the dynamic DCF method. This study aims to contribute to increasing the usage of this method in mining projects. A copper reserve in Turkey is selected as a case study to apply uncertainty assessment for the evaluation of NPV.

Jan 1, 2012

By I. A. Mwamba

Titanium sponge, which is almost pure titanium, is extremely ductile and not easily processed into titanium powder. One method of producing powder is the hydride-dehydride (HDH) process, where titanium sponge is hydrided to form brittle titanium hydride (TiH2). Titanium hydride is easily milled to produce powder and is then dehydrided to form Ti powder. In this work, titanium hydride powder obtained from titanium sponge was used as a starting material for blending and mechanical alloying with elemental powders. Firstly, titanium hydride powder was blended with aluminium elemental powder to produce a homogenized powder, which was then compacted and sintered to produce powder metallurgy compacts. Secondly, titanium hydride powder was mechanically alloyed with aluminium elemental powder and then compacted. The mechanically alloyed powder was characterized in terms of particle size distribution, morphology and microstructure. In both blending and mechanical alloying, the green compacts were characterized by assessing the green density, while the sintered compacts were characterized by their sintered density, microstructure, and hardness. The two processes have resulted in the formation of TiA13 intermetallic compound. It was established that by simple mixing and homogenizing, titanium hydride can be used as a starting material to produce powder metallurgy components in which porosity is a benefit rather than a problem, much akin to metallic foams. From the products obtained in the TiHz-Al system, it appears that titanium hydride can be used as a precursor in mechanical alloying. However, the possible formation of complex hydrides may introduce detrimental properties, and needs to be further investigated. For the production of non-porous components, it would be advisable to dehydrogenate the TiH2 powder before milling i.e. producing titanium powder by the hydride-dehydride (HDH) method. Keywords Mechanical alloying, titanium hydride, titanium aluminide and blending

Jan 1, 2011

By V. Yahorava

Resin-in-pulp (RIP) technology has recently often been considered for the direct recovery of base metals and uranium from dense pulps. Implementation of RIP will eliminate the requirement for any solid-liquid separation downstream of leaching and has the potential to combine the recovery and purification steps, hence reducing both capital and operating costs. The recovery of the valuable metal is expected to be higher when RIP is used, especially where the leached solids are difficult to settle or filter, and to wash. The main concerns about the use of RIP for uranium recovery from dense pulps are the impact of silica on the resin?s metallurgical performance and the operating costs that would be associated with resin loss. Although a number of resin manufacturers have been developing much improved RIP-grade resins, it is critical that the most cost-effective resin be selected. Mintek currently is doing a significant amount of work on silica fouling of RIP-grade strong-base resins in acidic leach liquors and the effect it has on the performance of the resin, including its durability. This paper describes the results of the test work done on silica fouling and its impact on plant design input data. Resin durability test work was done using various laboratory techniques, but durability was also evaluated on a relatively large scale using actual pumps, screens, and mechanical agitation. Based on the results generated, a preliminary economical evaluation was done to estimate the impact of resin loss on the overall economic viability of a specific application. Keywords: resin-in-pulp, silica fouling, resin loss, equilibrium, kinetics, elution, durability, mechanical strength, resistance to attrition.

Jan 1, 2009

The re-use of waste water from coal preparation plant tailings is always desirable, but is generally problematic in terms of solid-liquid separation. Dewatering and disposal of coal slurry at a high percentage of moisture poses a major technological and environmental challenge to mining and mineral processing industries world-wide. Characterization and flocculation of these coal tailings reveals that the separation of fine coal tailings depends on factors such as size distribution, slurry viscosity, zeta potential, pulp density, circuit design, plant operating parameters, and the behaviour of solid particles in an aqueous medium. The present study was carried out on -600 mm coal tailings collected from a coking coal preparation plant of Jharia Coalfield, India, using anionic flocculent. Characterization studies revealed that the zeta potential was highest (-44 mV) at a pH of 9.0, the size range of the particles was 1.1?700 m, and the average ash content was 62.57%. Flocculation studies were performed at different solid concentrations, pH values, and polymer dosages. The results indicated an efficient settling rate of 178.15 mm/min at 8% solid (w/w) at a flocculent dosage of 32.50 g/t solid. The turbidity of the clear liquid obtained was 7.42 NTU.

Jan 1, 2014

By Pieter de Waal

The use of valuable minerals is a necessity to maintain a modern society. Not only the iron, aluminium, coal and oil that are used in large quantities, but also the uranium, copper, vanadium, tungsten, antimony and many others play an essential role in the bigger picture of our modern civilisation. Minerals occur in a form and in places determined by a long history starting at the dawn of creation. Over billions of years the elements have combined in wondrous combinations and structures. They have been broken up by massive explosions, movements in the earth's crust and erosion by wind and water. They have been restructured and recreated in even more configurations by the application of heat and pressure, leached by and exposed to new chemical compounds. The result is that most valuable minerals are found in impure form and mixed up with other, less useful waste material. 2. Mineral Beneficiation The processes used for the purification and enhancement of an ore, to satisfy the needs of downstream applications, are collectively referred to as mineral beneficiation. Mineral Beneficiation starts in the mine where only that portion of the ore, that can be economically processed, is selectively extracted. It may also include ore blending, to ensure a more consistent feed to the following stage of valuable mineral recovery. The next stage in mineral beneficiation is the liberation of the valuable minerals from the gangue. This is achieved by blasting, crushing, milling and grinding down to an adequately fine grain size to facilitate good separation. Separation can be achieved by a variety of different techniques. ?Screening coarse from fine particles is an easy method if the valuable mineral is dominant in a certain screen fraction. ?Magnetic separators can differentiate minerals on the basis of their difference in magnetic susceptibility. ? Electrostatic separators differentiate on the basis of electrical conductivity. ? The differences in density are exploited in spirals and jigs. ? Particular surface properties provide a separation technique in flotation. ?The selective sorption properties of a collector medium are another option.

Jan 1, 2007

By S. M. Spottiswoode

Much as one hopes to predict whether damaging seismicity might occur somewhere in the next shift, this is not possible at present. Recently, an analysis of seismicity at two mines has shown that a small increase in seismicity occasionally occurs before both large and small events. This analysis is extended here to five mines, with the same results. Earthquake seismologists forecast hazard in terms of the average incidence of earthquakes over the last 50 years, adjusted on an hourly basis according to the possibility of aftershocks of events that have happened. The rate of seismicity in any area remains approximately constant when expressed as seismicity per area mined, or better still, per unit of elastic strain energy released. It is suggested that seismic hazard in mines be estimated using historical seismicity and forward modelling, adjusted according to the possibility of aftershocks. In summary, medium-term forecasting of seismicity is viable; short-term prediction of large events is not.

Jan 1, 2010

By P. Valicek, M. Farren, R. G. B. Pickering, G. Harrison, P. van Dorssen, W. Joubert, H. J. van Rensburg

Introduction In South African metalliferous mines, stoping operations are largely confined to narrow, tabular orebodies making mechanization extremely difficult. Limited flexibility in terms of stope width has necessitated drilling by means of hand held, pneumatic rock drills at most of our operations. As the largest producer of platinum in the world, we drill in excess of forty million stope blast holes per annum. Cleaning of the broken ore is also done by conventional means—utilizing scrapers and scraper winches. Conventional methods such as these carry high costs in terms of risk exposure as well as labour intensity. The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of a long hole stoping system suitable for the narrow platinum reefs. The new system had to be substantially safer and more cost effective than conventional mining. We selected a site that was conducive to mechanized mining and set out the parameters that we considered would meet our requirements. We then conducted a feasibility study to evaluate the conceptualized long hole stoping system in terms of specific goals. An analysis of the proposed system identified the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). One of the most critical goals was to be able to create a man-freestope. This would mitigate the safety risk associated with normal stoping operations, as well as the inefficiency cost previously referred to. Other challenges included setting targets for long hole accuracy, stoping width reduction and specific blasting system performance for long hole stoping. We also modelled a critical span that we considered to be inherently safe and to ensure hangingwall stability, throw-blastcleaning and overall system productivity. Anglo Platinum Research and Development and Sandvik Tamrock entered into an agreement for the supply of a specialized long hole-drilling machine. The system was implemented and tested by the mine with the support of the other participants. The results achieved met our expectations. It was demonstrated that with this method of mining it is possible to have a man-free/support-free stope face and to achieve a reduction in shaft head cost per ton whilst reducing dilution. Key performance indicators assessed during the trial •Safety targets •Mining layout •Drill rig •Production targets •Support requirement •Explosives requirement •Services requirement •Ore removal and cleaning requirement •Training requirement Safety targets All persons involved with the project had to adhere to the mine’s safety programme including the zero-tolerance campaign, and were required to report all hazards observed immediately. Mine personnel and Tamrock carried out a full risk assessment on the drill rig before transporting underground. A further risk assessment was carried out when the machine was in position underground. Mining layout See Figure 1 and Figure 2 for a detailed description. Drill rig The drill rig was a combination of a Secoma P-Low LC 10long hole feed and an Axera low profile carrier. The choice of this equipment was made through consultation with Tamrock Sandvik. All relevant design perimeters of the area to be mined were taken into consideration. Production targets

Sep 1, 2001

By L. G. Stolarczyk, J. Duncan

"SynopsisLong before the environmental movement, coal miners were suffering from occupational diseases that became apparent in the later years of service, and especially during the retirement years. Chronic exposure to micro-fine dust in the respirable range (‘float’ dust) causes various lung diseases, referred to as coal mine dust lung disease. In the USA alone, 76 000 miners have died of coal mine dust lung disease since early legislation recognized the issue in 1969. Researchers believe that reducing float dust exposure limits alone will not reverse the increasing incidence of coal mine dust lung disease seen in the current generation of miners. Trace and radioactive metals are concentrated in the thin boundary layers of the coal seam (Roberts, 2013), and hence float dust includes silica and toxic trace metals. The production and quality of coal is also significantly impacted by the presence of these contaminants in the coal. In the combustion process, the trace metals are oxidized and become incorporated in the fly ash and flue gas. Since they are extremely water-soluble, they represent a significant danger to health and the environment. Coal preparation plants and power stations need to mitigate these contaminants as far as is practical, but the simple fact is that most contaminants should have been left un-mined.This paper describes an innovative coal-cutting solution to the longstanding technology gap in mining – the ability to measure uncut coal layer thickness to the boundary rock layer. Because of constant changes in geology, seam thickness, and seam undulation, the horizon sensor must be located in the bit-block of the rotating cutter drum of the mining machine. Contaminants in ROM coal must be minimized at the source – that is, at the rock/coal crushing cone directly under the bit-tips of the cutting drum. Bittip distances to the rock boundary layer must be automatically controlled in real time when mining in a complex and undulating coal bed. Horizon sensing (HS) technology enables the mining machine’s cutting picks to stop at a specified distance from undulating horizons of the boundary rock. The thin contaminated coal layer can be left in situ, significantly reducing the toxicity of the float dust. Preventing the metal picks from striking quartz-containing boundary rock also reduces the occurrence of methane ignitions. HS technology equipped with pick force vector sensing can allow optimization of the cutting pick lacing pattern for minimum coal and rock crushing, thereby reducing float dust. This technology may enable the mining industry to convert from automated machine control to autonomous during coal cutting and loading."

Jan 1, 2015

To the members of The South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy We have audited the annual financial statements of The South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy set out on pages 483 to 496 for the year ended 30 June 2004. These financial statements are the responsibility of the Institute?s Council. Our responsibility is to express an opinion on these financial statements based on our audit. Scope We have conducted our audit in accordance with statements of South African Auditing Standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain reasonable assurance that the financial statements are free of material misstatement. An audit includes: ?examining, on a test basis, evidence supporting the amounts and disclosures in the financial statements, ?assessing the accounting principles used and significant estimates made by management, and ?evaluating the overall financial statement presentation. We believe that our audit provides a reasonable basis for our opinion. Audit opinion In our opinion, the financial statements fairly present, in all material respects, the financial position of the Institute at 30 June 2004 and the results of its operations and cash flows for the year then ended in accordance with South African Statements of Generally Accepted Accounting Practice. Auditors 30 July 2004 Council?s approval of the annual financial statements The annual financial statements for the year ended 30 June 2004 set out on pages 483 to 496 were approved by the Council on 30 July 2004 and are signed on its behalf by:

Jan 1, 2004

By H. T. Chiwaye

Risk analysis is an important step in the design of rock slopes in open pit mining. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of slope failure and the consequences of the failure, and is generally evaluated in terms of safety and economic risk. Most of the risk analysis done at present is based on the use of limit equilibrium (LE) techniques in evaluating the probability of failure (POF) of the slopes. The approach typically makes use of full Monte Carlo simulations of the limit equilibrium models, with all uncertain variables randomly varied. The number of required simulations is generally over a thousand, at times as high as 20 000, in order to produce statistically valid results of the POF. Such an approach is clearly not practical when using numerical modelling programs dueto the high computational effort required. This paper explores the impact of using numerical modelling instead of the traditional LE techniques in evaluating the probability of slope failure. The difference in the overall assessed risk, in terms of economic impact, for the mining operation is then evaluated. With numerical models, approximate methods are used in the calculation of the probability of failure instead of full Monte Carlo simulations. This paper will use a method called the response surface methodology (RSM) for estimating the POF from numerical analyses. Simple slope models were used to verify the accuracy of the RSM method by comparing the results with those obtained from full Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that there is good agreement between the POF values computed using full Monte Carlo simulation and those obtained using the RSM method. Finally, the use of numerical modelling in the assessment of risk is shown to bring a significant difference in the result compared with that from LE methods. One of the reasons for the difference is that LE models tend to underestimate the failure volumes and hence the consequences of slope failure.

Jan 1, 2010