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By Philip B. Bucky

CONTENTS [PACEPACE r. What Is a Rock Burst?2 4. How Can Rock Bursts Be Predicted? . 35 Jack Spalding2Jack Spalding35 A. F. Robertson 2, 5A. F. Robertson35 W. R. Crane 2A. B. Yates and P. J. Shenon. . . . 35 G. S. Rice 2W. R. Crane 35 P. J. Shenon 2G. S. Rice 35 L. C. Graton 2B. F. Tillson 36 2. What Are the Causes of Rock Bursts? 6 5. How Can Rock Bursts Be Controlled?. 36 Jack Spalding6Jack Spalding36 A. B. Yates and P. J. Shenon . 7, 12, 29A. F. Robertson 36 A. F. Robertson 12, 28W. R. Crane37 W. R. Crane 15A. B. Yates and P. J. Shenon. . . . 37 G. S. Rice 15Oscar Weiss38 Oscar Weiss15G. S. Rice37, 42 P. B. Bucky21R. D. Hoffman42, 43 P. H. Bird 21, 26, 28R. D. Hall 42 M. K. Hubbert26R. H. Cromwell42 G. Wheeler 26. J. Shenon 42 B. F. Tillson26, 28P. B. Bucky42, 44 T. T. Read 27B. F. Tillson 42, 44 A. B. Yates 43, 44 3. How Can Rock Bursts Be Prevented? . 30P. H. Bird 43 Jack Spalding. . . . • . • • • • . 306. General Discussion . A. B. Yates and P. J. Shenon. . . . 31Jack Spalding44 A. F. Robertson32R. D. Parker49 W. R. Crane 35C. Baring Horwood 51 G. S. Rice 35P. B. Bucky 52] FOREWORD THIS symposium brings together points of view, experiences and ideas on rock bursts from a goodly portion of the globe. Some conceptions, particularly those regarding the necessity of depth, have been fairly well shattered, as we find that they are present in the water tunnels of New York, on the surface at marble quarries in Vermont, and in the coal mines of the United States, as well as in the deep mines of the South African and Kolar gold fields, and in the nickel, copper and gold mines of Canada. Their occurrence under such a variety of conditions is, therefore, a challenge,

Jan 1, 1942

By AIME AIME

ON the morning of Monday, Nov. 9, 1936, two motorcycles, with sirens screeching, - escorted a procession of 70 automobiles from the Colonia Railway Station in Mexico City to the Hotel Geneve. Riding in' the cars were just over 200 visitors- members of the A.I.M.E. and their guests. They had come, via St. Louis, in two special trains from 24 different states for the 146th General Meeting of the Institute. During the morning they and 200 others, who had come from the United States by automobile or from various cities and mining camps in Mexico, duly registered with !efficient Mme. Irma Ordoiiez de Obregon and her assistants. Then started a week of strenuous but delightful activity that will never be forgotten by the participants. They were to cover more than 500 miles by automobile, always with a motor escort, and often

Jan 1, 1937

By John Boardman

THE latest metal-mine accident report available for the United States is that of the Bureau of Mines for the calendar year 1919. Quoting from Table 20, p. 53, of that report, we find that there were 468 men killed, 7 permanently totally disabled, 321 permanently partially disabled, 7848 injured seriously (more than 14 days disability), and 23,330 of 1 to 14 days disability. We have no records to show what the average days lost per case of accident is, but the records for the Anaconda Copper Mining Co. show that, leaving out the fatalities and total permanent disabilities, and counting those in which the lost time was one or more days, the actual days lost due to accidents, for the Butte mines and shops for five years, 1917-1921, were as follows: Accident Statistics, Butte Mines and Shops of A. C. M. Co. Rate Shifts Days Lost Year Accidents Total Shifts 10,000 Shifts Days Lost Per Acci-dent 1917 2,661 3,169,720 8.395 26,734 10.05 1918 2,765 3,545,149 7.799 39,199 14.17 1919 1,381 1,853,143 7.452 22,797 16.50 1920 1,376 1,879,410 7.321 20,164 14.65 1921 376 776,461 4.842 8,287 22.03 Total... 8,559 11,223,883 7.625 117,981 13.80 In order to place an economic value. on this loss, we will assume that all the 468 fatalities and the 7 total permanently disabled in the United States were com-pensated for at the rate which applies in the State of Montana, that is, $5000 each, and that the 8169 serious accidents in the United States were compensated for at an average of $70 per case, thus bringing the estimated compensation paid by metal-mining companies in the United States to the enormous total of $2,946,830 for the year 1919. The figure of $70 per case was obtained by dividing the total amount paid by metal-mining companies under Plan No. 1 of the Montana Compensation Law, for the first five years of its operation, by the total number of serious accidents for those years.

Jan 9, 1922

By George Weaton

Two years ago the general features of the St. Joseph Lead Company's zinc-smelting process were described.1 At that time the discussion was limited to a description of the production of high-purity electrothermic zinc oxide. The present paper will describe the commercial production of electrothermic zinc metal. Since a fairly complete description of the plant of the Josephtown smelter was given in the earlier paper, the brief recapitulation given here will be limited to mention of additional equip-ment recently installed and a bare outline of the preparatory process. The raw material is zinc sulphide concentrate received from the com-pany's mines in St. Lawrence County, New York. An average dry-weight analysis of this material is: Zn, 58.28 per cent; Pb, 0.56; insoluble, 1.6; Si02, 1.12; Fe, 6.4; CaO, 0.47; MgO, 0.27; S, 31.9; Cd, 0.1; Cu, 0.06; Mn, 0.24. Moisture content is usually about 3 per cent. Three 21-ft. 6-in. diameter, 12-hearth Nichols-Herreshoff furnaces roast the concen-trate to a calcine of average composition (first 10 months of 1938) : Zn, 67.69 per cent; Pb, 0.06; insoluble, 1.75; Si02, 1.26; Fe, 7.24; CaO, 0.47; MgO, 0.36; S, 1.88; Cd, 0.1; Cu, 0.07; Mn, 0.27. The sulphur dioxide gas, after passing through a waste-heat boiler, proceeds through a recently redesigned low-resistance gas-purification assembly to the contact sul-phuric acid plant, of which the capacity is 200 tons of concentrates per day. The calcine is mixed with a portion of returned furnace residues and sintered on 42-in. by 44-ft. Dwight-Lloyd sintering machines, gas-fired. Wind-box gases pass through air coolers before filtering in a 1440-bag Dracco unit, and thence to stack. The Dracco fume is mixed with Cottrell dust, from roaster gas cleaning, and sent to the leach plant, where it is roasted (SO2 to acid plant) and leached with sulphuric acid to recover, as end products, lead sulphate, zinc sulphate and cadmium.

Jan 1, 1939

By Barry D. Lichter, Pierre Sommelet

High-temperature heat contents of InAs and GaAs were measured over the temperature range 400°K to temperatures above the melting points using a di-phenyl ether drop calorimeter. Smoothed values of the thermal properties have been derived and tabulated at even temperature interuals . The heats of fusion of InAs and GaAs were determined as, respectively, 8790 ± 200 and 12,590 ± 300 cal per g-atom at the respective melting points of 1210º ± and 1513º ± 1°K, yielding entropies of fusion of 7.26 * 0.16 and 8.32 ± 0.20 cal perºK per g-atom, respectively. A general discussion of the thermal properties of III-V com-pounds is given. THE low-temperature heat capacities of InAs and GaAs have been determined by Piesbergen.1Using a dynamic temperature modulation technique, Miller2 has determined the heat capacities of the compounds as well as GaSb and Ge between room temperature and 650°K; however, it has been observed that values determined by drop calorimetry for GaSb3 and for germanium4 are consistently about 5 pct lower than Miller's results. Cox and Pool10 report values for the heat content of InAs and GaAs and the heat of fusion of InAs. No value for the heat of fusion of GaAs appears to have been previously reported. This paper reports results of high-temperature heat content investigations of InAs and GaAs measured in the range 400" to above 1500°K employing a diphenyl ether drop calorimeter. These results, together with our previous results on III-Sb compounds3 as well as heat-content measurements5 of solid InP and Gap, are used in a general discussion of these compounds. EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURES High-purity samples of the compounds, stoichio-metric to ±0.1 at. pct, were supplied in the form of crushed crystal fragments by Dr. Carl Thurmond of the Bell Telephone Laboratories. The sample preparation, description of the calorimeter, and details of the heat content measurement have been previously described.3 Samples were sealed in evacuated silica capsules and suspended by a Pt-Rh wire in a Pt-wound vertical tube furnace, heated to temperature

Jan 1, 1970

By H.E. Brauer

Among the zinc base alloys used for casting in metal moulds, pnrticularly die casting, those alloys containing aluminum usually together with copper, are probably the most widely used. The reason lies in their desirable mechanical properties and the fluidity and absence of hot shortncss which facilitate ca,sting. Objection to the use of these alloys may be raised on account of the rather frequent instances of failure of a type variously described as disintegration, exfoliation and intererystalline corrosion. In all cases which have come to our kno~vlcdge where the conditionsof service were known, failure has occurred upon cxposurc to moisture and heat varying from a hot moist atmosphere to lligh pressure steam. RIoreover, the alloys described in all such roses contain impurities or alloying metals which the present authors have found to have enormous accelerating effects on intererystalline oxid:~t'ion in zinc-aluminurn alloys. Thus Williams1 experimented with an alloy containing a large percentage of tin exposed in Cuba. Baucr2 reports failure of a boiler plug containing over 1 per cent. of impurities, doubtless lead for the must part, and Rawdon's3 examinations were madc on an alloy containing 0.1 per cent. lead also exyosctl to thc Tropics. No thorough investigation of the nature and cause of this type of failure has been made heretofore, so far as the authors are aware, although Rawdon correctly classified it as internal oxidation. We have, therefore, carried out this investigation in order to det'ermine the exact nature of this phenonienon and the effect of other metals present as impurities or intentional additions in accelerating or retarding it. In the appendix we include a considerable amount of data which may be valuable in selecting an alloy combining good physical properties with high resistance to oxidation. At the time this work was undertaken the best available equilibrium *Investigator, Metal Section, Research Division, The New Jersey Zinc Company. 'H. W. Williams—Jour. Am. Inst. of AIet,als, Vol. 11, p. 221 (1917). 2o. Bauer—ZeiL, fiir i'vletall Kunde, Vol. 12, .No. 7, pp. 129-31 (1920). 3H. S. Rawdon—Trans. Am. Elcctrochcmic.al Society (1921).

Jan 1, 1923

By H. E. Brauer

Among the zinc base alloys used for casting in metal moulds, pnrticularly die casting, those alloys containing aluminum usually together with copper, are probably the most widely used. The reason lies in their desirable mechanical properties and the fluidity and absence of hot shortncss which facilitate ca,sting. Objection to the use of these alloys may be raised on account of the rather frequent instances of failure of a type variously described as disintegration, exfoliation and intererystalline corrosion. In all cases which have come to our kno~vlcdge where the conditionsof service were known, failure has occurred upon cxposurc to moisture and heat varying from a hot moist atmosphere to lligh pressure steam. RIoreover, the alloys described in all such roses contain impurities or alloying metals which the present authors have found to have enormous accelerating effects on intererystalline oxid:~t'ion in zinc-aluminurn alloys. Thus Williams1 experimented with an alloy containing a large percentage of tin exposed in Cuba. Baucr2 reports failure of a boiler plug containing over 1 per cent. of impurities, doubtless lead for the must part, and Rawdon's3 examinations were madc on an alloy containing 0.1 per cent. lead also exyosctl to thc Tropics. No thorough investigation of the nature and cause of this type of failure has been made heretofore, so far as the authors are aware, although Rawdon correctly classified it as internal oxidation. We have, therefore, carried out this investigation in order to det'ermine the exact nature of this phenonienon and the effect of other metals present as impurities or intentional additions in accelerating or retarding it. In the appendix we include a considerable amount of data which may be valuable in selecting an alloy combining good physical properties with high resistance to oxidation. At the time this work was undertaken the best available equilibrium *Investigator, Metal Section, Research Division, The New Jersey Zinc Company. 'H. W. Williams—Jour. Am. Inst. of AIet,als, Vol. 11, p. 221 (1917). 2o. Bauer—ZeiL, fiir i'vletall Kunde, Vol. 12, .No. 7, pp. 129-31 (1920). 3H. S. Rawdon—Trans. Am. Elcctrochcmic.al Society (1921).

Jan 1, 1923

By W. D. MOTTER

THE following brief description of the status of operations of the Chile Exploration Co. at Chuquicamata, Chile; and of the plant as it exists today, points out the-great progress that has been made since the initiation of prospect drilling in 1912. During the 11 years which have elapsed since then, a group of small mines, eking out a 'precarious existence, has been consolidated into one large operating property,, taking high rank among the world's producers of copper. After a drilling campaign followed by a construction period, the plant first started operations in 1915. Since then production has been gradually increased, as world conditions permitted, until the present status has been reached.

Jan 1, 1924

By Messrs. von Jonstorff

Continued Discussion of the Paper of Messrs. von Jonstorff, Blair, Dillner and Stead, presented at the New York Meeting of the Iron and Steel Institute, October, 1904.* (Bethlehem Meeting, February, 1906.) CLEMENS C. JONES, Richmond, Va. (communication to the Secretary+) :-In the chapter of this paper entitled "Method for the Determination of Phosphorus," by Andrew A. Blair, a form of the reductor used by Mr. Blair is illustrated. This form was employed by me in my earliest experiments, and abandoned after my adoption of the final apparatus described in my paper on the subject in 1889. The results reported by Mr. Blair are very closely accordant; but my experience was that, in the use of this form, a loss of the solution, amounting to almost a cubic centimeter, was occasioned by minute bubbles of hydrogen rising to the surface, and there exploding. My final reductor was designed to prevent this loss; and the most satisfactory results were obtained with a reductor having the open cup replaced by a bulb-shaped receptacle, provided with a glass stopper, similar to that of a separatory funnel of similar capacity, as suggested in a foot-note in my original paper. In my experience, the use of this later form of reductor repeatedly gave duplicate results which were, coincident to the fourth decimal place. R. W. RAYMOND, New York, N. Y.:-The. remarks of Mr. Jones recall to my mind an interesting part of the history of the Institute, and, of its relation to modern progress in the department covered by this interesting and valuable paper. In

Mar 1, 1906

By Eugene McAuliffe

AS this is written, the probability A is that the bituminous coal out- put for 1936 will approximate 420,000,000 tons (of 2000 lb.) with an average working time for all mines of 205 days. The results for 1935 approximated 369,224,000 tons, with the mines working about 185 days. The increase in production of 14 per cent is heartening. In anthracite, it is probable that the preliminary figures covering output for 1935, 51,- 003,000 tons, will be exceeded this year although the percentage of in- crease will almost certainly be small. The substantial tonnage of anthracite illegally mined, estimated to be 3,600,- 000 tons in 1935, with a similar large Lonnage in 1936, is in addition to the figure given above; it represents an open and flagrant disregard of law and property rights. It is hard to understand why the officials of the State of Pennsylvania do not enforce the laws against theft and brigandage, more so when the legitimate employees of the established producing proper-

Jan 1, 1937

By AIME AIME

FOR the mineral industry, as for many others, the year 1944 brought to fruition the seeds planted in previous war years. Accomplishment in attaining ends in the production of minerals has given more time for the consideration of postwar problems, such as plans for resuming production for civilian uses and measures to prevent possible mass unemployment. The hectic atmosphere in production circles lessened during the latter half of 1943, conditions becoming static during 1944 as peak production rates were reached. Withdrawal of deferment of young men from the mining districts by Selective Service connotes that man power at the battlefronts became more important than the persistence of pressure for metal production. This is in contrast to the return of soldiers in 1943 to augment the labor ranks in the mining districts. The year ended in the midst of changing needs. Over-all metal production in the United States in 1944 will record a lessening, compared with the previous year owing to labor shortages which affected both development work and ore output.

Jan 1, 1945

By D. M. Wade, F. F. Redfield

PRODUCTION at Aguilar started in 1936 and by 1942 the mine had reached a peak of 25,000 tons a month. Present production is only about 60 per cent of this capacity because of difficulties in railroad transportation and the rationing of fuel oil brought about by the war. In the early years, cut-and-fill stopes were tried, but square sets were found to be the most practical method in the southern section of the mine, where blocky, treacherous ground and greater mining widths are prevalent. Square sets and opencut mining were the rule until 1942, when it became increasingly difficult to get mine timber. The ore beds in the northern section of the mine were found amenable to cut-and-fill stoping as the rock was firmer and the veins narrower. At present 69 per cent of the ore comes from cut-and-fill stopes, 27 per cent from opencut, and only 4 per cent from square-set stopes. Massive galena and sphalerite with comparatively little quartzitic gangue constitutes the higher-grade ore. The gangue minerals that can be detected by eye in low-grade ore are rhodonite, wollastonite, and pyrrhotite. Wall rocks range from shale to quartzite, with occasionally a little limestone.

Jan 1, 1947

By R. G. Hall

WHEN we want to interpret some problem which faces us at the present, if that problem be a social or political movement, we turn to the pages of history for 'information. If the problem be one of science or of industry we turn to the library of the subject and endeavor to translate the present from the experience of the past. I wonder if you would bear with me for a few minutes as I look back to the time when I was going through mining school and looking forward with hope, it is true and with confidence also, but still with some trepidation and an occasional qualm, to the month of June when the class of 1897 would be hunting jobs. Those were the years 1893 to 1897. Those years saw the Treasury of the United States so empty of gold that the President had to appeal to financiers to accept the country's promises to pay in return for $100,000,000 in gold. And the invectives that were hurled at both their heads for such a betrayal of the people sound strangely similar to those you read today being daily written and screamed at another President for taking us into the League of Nations or for not issuing bonds in huge amounts for unemployment relief, or for not adopting somebody else's particular specific for the relief of hard times.

Jan 1, 1931

By Robert T. DeGavre

The $650 million financing for Into Ltd.'s Soroako nickel project is a story worth telling-not only because the project itself represents a significant achievement but also because there are certain important lessons that can be derived from our experience in financing the project. A critical appraisal of the methods and successes in the financing plan is presented in this article, in light of goals which Inco sought to achieve. A technical assessment of the project is not included, since Inco Ltd. has submitted a series of papers on this subject at the International Laterite Symposium as part of the 108th Annual Meeting of AIME in February 1979. Progress in developing and financing the project is encapsulated in the accompanying project factsheet.

Jan 3, 1979

By A. A. Steel

(Spokane Meeting, September, 1909.) DURING. the summer of 1905 I was employed by the U. S. Geological Survey to investigate the geology, Mining, and preparation of barite in most. of the fields of the United States. The Eastern districts have been more or less completely described ; the Virginia field in detail by Thomas L. Watson, in his paper, Geology of the Virginia Barite-Deposits,' and other fields in abstract., including statistics of production and references to current literature, by various authors .2 There have also been published a few details of the occurrence of barite in the lead-mines of Washington county, Mo.3 The other accounts of this district are erroneous and meager, and since this field is the most important one in the United States at the present time, a detailed description of the local geology seems doubly desirable. Barite-deposits are scattered over nearly the whole of Washington and adjoining counties, but. the product, is all mined from the areas indicated upon the sketch-map, Fig. 1, and is shipped from the stations of the St. Louis, Iron Mountain &. Southern railway, between Blackwell and Potosi, from 45 to 60 miles SW. of St.. Louis. The topography is for the most part gently rolling, with slightly graded streams, usually less than 200 ft. below the higher hill-tops. Along Mineral fork and Indian creek are :some steep bluffs and cliffs, affording good exposures of the

Feb 1, 1910

By Francis P. Sinn

IN the zinc smelting industry the year 1947 seems to have been one of putting one's house in order rather than one of any material technical development or radical change in operating conditions. Labor generally has been in better supply but several plants report a scarcity of skilled workmen. Some plants continue to operate on the basis of a six-day week and will probably continue to do so until labor is more plentiful. Only one plant is known to have operated on a curtailed basis because of labor shortage, but here the difficulty was lack of proper housing facilities. Necessary materials and equipment for much-needed maintenance and modernization have been in short supply so these programs have often been delayed. Laborsaving devices of the "Payloader" type have been more generally used for handling materials. Slab zinc production was discontinued during the last months of the year at Danville, 111. and at Langeloth, Pa. Both of these plants used the Hegeler type of furnaces fired with producer gas. It is understood that the rolling mill and possibly the acid plant at Danville will continue to operate. At Langeloth acid will be produced from

Jan 1, 1948

By F. E. Gregory

MINING methods and customs in many districts of England are to this day strangely bound about by the records and traditions of the past. In some mining fields this is more apparent than in others, yet it is everywhere in evidence, for Cornwall with her mines under the sea, Wales with her famous quartzites, and Derbyshire with her remarkable cavern deposits, are all tinctured with quaint customs that have come out of the almost forgotten past. Here, modernism has never replaced tradition, and many of the laws are woven of the woof and warp of ancient custom. Indeed, these things exist because they have come to be part and parcel of the civil laws. And these laws are observed with meticulous care and accorded all the reverence due their venerable age. All activities pertaining to the mining of metals are hedged around by curious and ofttimes clumsy laws, each minute and trivial detail being covered by the civil code, and each petty law enforced by an ofttimes pompous official.

Jan 1, 1933

By H. R. Hanley

IN AS MUCH as the interesting changes in the economics of the zinc industry are covered nowhere else in this issue, and they are related to technological progress in the metallurgy of zinc, some reference to prices and production will first be made. The latter part of 1939 is outstanding in the large war demand for metals including zinc, whereas in the first eight months the demand for zinc was subnormal. The cause of the rapid in- crease in demand was the European war and hence the future is problematical. When the year began zinc was in the doldrums, with low prices, and continued thus until August when an advance in price started, reaching 6.5. per pound early in October. (Prime Western, St. Louis.) Rapid changes in the price of any metal are viewed adversely by the metal industry. The persistent low price for zinc of 4 to 49512 for about two years curtailed production and in one instance closed one large plant for a brief period.

Jan 1, 1940

By T. Koulomzine

The theory of the Askania magnetometer, as well as a complete discussion of all factors influencing magnetometer readings, is very ably described by J. Wallace Joyce. We will assume that the reader is thoroughly familiar with this theory and we will use whenever possible the same notations for the physical values involved in the theory. On the other hand, we believe that the principal formulas of the magnetometer can be deduced much more easily by the use of differential calculus than by the methods employed by Joyce. Consequently, we are presenting herewith a resume of the theory of the vertical magnetometer in order to determine the correct formula of the temperature coefficient which we propose to compensate.

Jan 1, 1949

By Daniel T. Brian, O&apos

Exploration targets and results in the mining industry are commonly summarized in terms of tonnage and grade. Business appraisals require, as additional information, the expected profit or loss implied by the physical summay. The early incorporation of knowledge gained through financial analysis computations can provide a means for economically resolving many common exploration and development problems. Examples of such applications from the activities of exploration planning, reconnaissance, land acquisition, and development planning are presented. While prospecting for mineral deposits, geologists are frequently asked what they hope to find or have found. The response is usually descriptive, such as "50 million tons of 1% copper," and the economic implications are deferred until a capital investment decision is required. At that time, a financial analysis integrating the four analysis components is completed. These components are: 1) Tonnage and Average grade above cutoff grade 2) Capital and operating costs 3) Product value 4) Appropriate profit or loss accounting Close examination of these components reveals that there is no intrinsic reason for avoiding financial analyses at earlier stages in exploration, as long as the uncertainty of the estimate is realized. Tonnage and average grades are commonly estimated at early stages in exploration. For this component, the appropriate cutoff is the major uncertainty. Capital and operating costs are difficult to estimate before detailed quantitative information is available, but estimates useful for the types of applications pertinent to earlier exploration stages are possible. Product value estimates may or may not be difficult, depending on the pricing structure of the particular commodity. A simplified accounting procedure usually may be adopted without introducing any significant loss of validity. This paper describe some of the financial analysis applications which are pertinent during mineral exploration and deposit development. These applications lend additional insight during exploration planning, land acquisition, physical exploration, and development. The examples are oriented toward a hypothetical management investment policy which is based on a single criterion, a minimum 15% discounted cash flow rate of return. In reality, managements use multiple criteria. This simplification is convenient for purposes of presentation and does not invalidate the examples. Computers are useful, but not a requirement, for the applications described. The use of computers provides the results on a more timely basis at costs lower than equivalent manual computations. UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES AND ANALYSIS METHODS Data estimates are subject to uncertainty. The analyst may choose to assess this uncertainty by using one of two principles. Each principle has some advantages. The principle most commonly employed is "assumed certainty." Each financial analysis is based on one set of selected data, which may represent the average estimates, minimum expected conditions, etc. The critical data is identified by making successive calculations, varying the values used. Such studies, called sensitivity analyses, isolate the economic effect of various uncertainties, and guide the allocation of future efforts toward improving the overall accuracy of the analysis. A second principle, "assumed risk," examines the interactive effect of the current uncertainties by qualitatively assigning probability distributions to each data element. These probability distributions indicate the currently appraised chance that a given numerical value will prove to be true. The corresponding procedure, risk analysis, consists of processing many individual financial analyses, each analysis being based on randomly selected numerical values from the probabilistic distributions. The result is a numerical presentation of the uncertainty, but care must be exercised in the interpretation of results. The advantage of this procedure is the direct measurement of economic uncertainty caused by the interaction of uncertain estimates. Kennecott Copper Corp. has developed computer systems for accomplishing sensitivity and risk analyses.

Jan 1, 1970