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By Windsor C

A review of the current pit design procedures and their performance has been undertaken recently by Mining Research Associates (MRA) and the CSIRO Division of Geomechanics. Visits were made to mines covering a wide range of operations. A questionnaire was completed by each mine in order to collate the relevant information. Interviews were also made with representatives of the Mines Departments to ascertain their role in regulating mine designs. Design expectations were compared with field performance, and reasons for variations noted. Problems associated with designs were identified and suggested methods of alleviating the problems have been made.

Jan 1, 1986

By J Furtney, W Fu, D Nutakor, A Brose

Rock blasting outcomes are often a shared responsibility of both the mine operations group and the mine geotechnical group. From an operational logistics and planning perspective, blasting concerns include optimal fragmentation for subsequent crushing, ensuring the blast is energetic enough to allow easy digging, and understanding the effect of muck from a previous blast on the current blast. From a geotechnical perspective, wall damage and catch bench capacity are the primary concerns. Other concerns for both teams include damage to mine infrastructure by fly rock or blast-induced vibrations, and the stability of open stopes under the pit. This work presents two blast modelling applications (or ‘apps’). The basic app instantly gives fragmentation and wall damage predictions for a given generic blast design. The advanced app loads the current pit contours, reads the blast design from a spreadsheet, and calculates the expected vibration magnitude and peak frequency. The apps have been developed specifically for the Rio Tinto Borates and Lithium Mine in California and are used to support blast design between the operations group and geotechnical group. The basic app instantly gives fragmentation and vibration predictions given a blast design by combining the Kuz-Ram fragmentation model with the scaled distance model for vibrations. The advanced app uses the signature hole method. Blasting outcomes at the mine have improved since using the apps.

Jun 22, 2022

By G Clarke

Commissioning of the Cannington processing plant began in October 1997. The nameplate capacity (of 1.55 million tonnes of ore per annum) was achieved relatively quickly. Since then (like many mines) the operation has strived to increase throughput and improve valuable metal recoveries, to offset declining head grades and lift the value of the operation. The processing plant now has the capability of treating over 3.2 million tonnes of ore per annum and in financial year 2005/06 the combined concentrate production exceeded 600 000 wet tonnes, approximately 80 per cent above concentrate output in the first full year of operation (at the design feed rate). This improved performance was achieved by making changes and additions to each of the major unit processes û primary grinding, flotation, leaching, filtering and paste fill preparation. The changes have included: adding a fines flotation circuit, expanding the grinding circuit, adding a pebble crusher, switching from continuous to batch leaching, building paste conveyors and decommissioning the column flotation cleaning circuits. This paper reviews these changes, outlines the current operating practices and discusses the challenges or opportunities that remain.

Jan 1, 2007

By D Q. Zhu

In this paper, the pretreatment of concentrates by roller press was present to improve the granulation of blends comprising some 30 per cent iron ore concentrates and enhance the sintering performance. It is shown that by pretreatment of fine concentrates through roller press, the content of +3 mm fractions of granulation mixture and sinter mixture permeability are elevated by ten per cent and 35 per cent. In the meantime, a sinter productivity increase from 1.51 - 1.62 t.m-2.h-1 is attainted in pot tests with similar sinter tumble index and at lower coke rate. The mechanism of the pretreatment of concentrates process to improve sintering performance of fine iron ore concentrates was demonstrated by mineralogy that better permeability help form more calcium ferrite and good microstructure of sinter, further proven by the better metallurgical performance of sinter.

Jul 11, 2011

By D Pateman, F de Fredrick

The Bentley underground mine, which is located 60km north of Leonora, Western Australia, is owned and operated by Round Oak Minerals Pty Limited. A high-grade Zn-Cu Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide (VMS) orebody, Bentley was discovered in 2008 with production commencing in 2012. Long-hole open stoping is employed to mine the steeply dipping ore body, and in recent years the Avoca method has been adopted. This requires all development in a particular area of the mine to be completed prior to stoping commencing in a bottom up sequence. Voids are commonly backfilled with loose Run-of-Mine (ROM) waste loose rockfill (LRF); or alternatively cemented rockfill (CRF) can be used. Stopes in the 3860 AOS and 3900 AOS panels were located below previously extracted Avoca zones, with LRF situated immediately above them. These high-grade stopes were originally designed with rib and sill pillars to maintain control of the existing backfill during extraction. Due to changing factors over time, including mining economics, alternative options to achieve full extraction of the stopes were reviewed, including: • Mining small successive full height stopes which would involve drawing a blanket of LRF down with the extracted ore (stoping under waste); • Stabilisation of the existing LRF above the stopes and implementing a primary/secondary stoping sequence, with the primary stopes backfilled using a cement fill. An assessment of these options was undertaken which determined that the second full extraction method was the most beneficial to the operation, and could be achieved using a cement grout (Minova’s FB200 grout) to stabilise the LRF in conjunction with implementing a sequence where the primary stopes would be backfilled with cemented aggregate fill (CAF). Footwall drives were developed adjacent to the rockfilled stopes, allowing for the installation of horizontal grouting conduits, as well as providing access to the top of the planned 3860 and 3900 level stopes for the placement of CAF. An interval at the base of the previously rockfilled stopes was grouted at multiple horizons to achieve the required thickness, with a comprehensive quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) process undertaken. Primary stopes were CAF backfilled via an arrangement of downhole winzes, linking the top of primary stopes to cross-cuts developed off the associated footwall drives. CAF was delivered underground through an open reticulation network that was extended to the specific levels. Overall the successful implementation of the revised mining method effectively increased ore recovery while maintaining control of overbreak and dilution, providing significant financial upside. This was achieved while maintaining effective controls in light of the changes to the risk profile. Stabilisation of the existing rockfill has allowed the extraction of stopes to full height, including the originally designed sill pillars, representing an average 23% increase in ore tonnes on the initial design, with dilution from the stope crowns averaging less than 1%. The use of CAF in association with primary/secondary stoping, eliminating the need for rib pillars, has yielded an average 47% increase in ore tonnes compared to the base case mine design.

Mar 15, 2021

By A Manzoori, M T. Shadloo

This paper describes a CFD modelling study which was carried out to investigate possible improvements in the design of an alumina precipitator tank at the Jajarm plant of Iran Alumina Company. In particular, the tank has an impeller located very close to the tank bottom, such that it quickly becomes covered with settled solids after a shut-down of the agitator, making it difficult to restart. A CFD model was firstly set up in which the existing design was evaluated in terms of flow pattern, off-bottom suspension and distribution of solids, and power consumption. Further simulations were then carried out to test alternative designs, leading to a recommended design, which maintains good mixing, with the same power consumption and without the use of a low-clearance impeller.

Jan 1, 2006

By D J. Bradshaw, E M. Wightman, C L. Evans, B Triffett

During the commissioning phase of Prominent Hill, periods of reduced recovery were experienced with higher-grade ore blends. This was unexpected and as part of the process to identify the cause, surveys were conducted in May 2009, with two different ore blends (copper grades: 1.94 per cent Cu (blend 1) and 2.49 per cent Cu (blend 2)). Metallurgical performance was assessed in terms of rougher recovery and grade with consideration of both pulp and froth effects. In addition, hydrodynamic measurements (gas hold up, bubble size, superficial gas velocity) as well as measurements of bubble load and top-of-froth grade were taken during the surveys and full mineralogical assessment of selected streams completed to characterise the nature of the differences. The metallurgical results showed that the lower performance was obtained with blend 2 which contained the higher amount of chalcocite and was higher-grade. Analysis of the survey data showed that for both ore blends more than half of the copper loss occurred in the +38 ¦m size fractions. Almost 30 per cent of the copper in the +38 ¦m fractions that reported to the rougher tails during processing of blend 2 was liberated compared to less than five per cent for blend 1. Additionally almost 60 per cent of the copper in the +38 ¦m fraction of blend 2 was chalcocite compared with approximately 20 per cent in blend 1. This paper discusses the sensitivity of the chalcocite-to-surface chemistry effects causing marked reductions in recovery either through reduced pulp recovery or froth phase (detachment) effects. The reagent suite and operating conditions were subsequently changed and the recoveries increased substantially and the sensitivity to ore changes eliminated. It should be noted that subsequent optimisation work, which focused on recovery improvement, has led to copper recoveries of over 90 per cent being achieved.CITATION:Bradshaw, D J, Wightman, E M, Evans, C L and Triffett, B, 2012. Characterising the reasons for the difference in performance of two ore blends in early processing at OZ Minerals Prominent Hill Operation, in Proceedings 11th AusIMM Mill OperatorsÆ Conference, pp 273-278 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Oct 29, 2012

By C D. Rose

A review and summary of the results of 120 coal sampling system bias tests is presented. This review supports new methodology using multivariate statistics currently being considered by ISO TC27 SC4. The current difficulties with ISO 13909-8 are explained and the logic behind the current new working draft is discussed in detail. Bias was detected in nearly 36 per cent of tests reviewed, suggesting that much improvement is needed in designing, maintaining and monitoring the performance of sampling systems in order to avoid sampling bias.CITATION:Rose, C D, 2012. Bias testing of mechanical sampling systems for coal - A review of test results and call for use of multivariate statistical analyses, in Proceedings Sampling 2012 , pp 185-192 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 21, 2012

By D P. Murphy, R F. Dewhirst

Traditionally closure has been seen by the Resource sector solely as a green or an environmental issue, focused primarily on the requirement to rehabilitate the site following cessation of production activities. In addition to operational, maintenance and production aspects of processing plant design, future design teams will need to take a more holistic view and consider an increasing number of sustainability issues including safety in design and cleaner production as well as closure itself. Sustainability principles being adopted by industry such as the Minerals Council of AustraliaÆs Enduring Value Framework are now broadening our understanding of closure. While issues around the closure of tailings dams and associated infrastructure have been widely studied, few investigations have looked closely at the implications of closure on the design of minerals processing plants. It is likely that design teams may be able to make a significant contribution to meeting industry objectives by adopting innovative designs which, in addition to meeting production objectives, deliver sustainable and cost effective plant closure outcomes. This presentation explores the opportunity for innovative design of mineral processing plants through the assessment of alternative closure objectives. This assessment specifically looks at current industry standards and statutory requirements, as well as potential risks and opportunities associated with each objective. Alternative design strategies to meet these objectives are discussed.

Jan 1, 2006

By K Faure

At Sams Creek a peralkaline granite porphyry dyke hosts gold-bearing sulfide-quartz-siderite veins. The granite dyke intrudes Ordovician-Silurian metapelite and quartzite, and has thin lamprophyre dykes along its contacts. The mineralised veins and the granite and lamprophyre dykes have been deformed during several phases of folding, the youngest of which is Early Cretaceous. The granite has been hydrothermally altered, with early magnetite-siderite¦biotite alteration overprinted by sulfide and quartz-siderite veins and quartz-perthite-albitesiderite-pyrite-rutile¦sericite alteration assemblages. The sulfide veins are composed of arsenopyrite + pyrite ¦ gold ¦ galena ¦ sphalerite ¦ chalcopyrite ¦ pyrrhotite ¦ graphite, with minor quartz and siderite. The gold contains significant silver (up to 30.8 wt per cent) and ranges in fineness from 692 to 844. Immiscible liquid-rich fluid inclusions, in quartz protected from recrystallisation by enclosing arsenopyrite, contain carbonic liquid that homogenised at temperatures of 320 - 355¦C. The Sams Creek gold deposit is distinguished from the orogenic gold deposit type by its stockwork veining, magnetite-siderite¦biotite alteration, high sulfide content, ore mineralogy and the absence of mineralisation in the metapelite country rocks. Features of the Sams Creek gold deposit do not fit neatly into existing classifications of granite-related gold-bearing deposits. The peralkaline composition of the Sams Creek granite and the absence of molybdenite and paucity of chalcopyrite, are major points of difference with gold-rich porphyry copper deposits. The presence of a lowsulf idation-state ore mineral assemblage, carbonate alteration and carbonic fluid inclusions at Sams Creek are typical of many of the reduced granitic intrusion-related type of gold deposit. However, notable differences are: the reduced type granites are metaluminous and calc-alkaline; and Sams Creek only has high As in contrast to elevated Bi, W, As, Mo, Te, and Sb in the reduced type. The Sams Creek deposit also shows affinities with gold deposits associated with alkaline magmatism, and it appears to be a new variant of this type as an As-Au deposit associated with a peralkaline granite and lamprophyre.

Jan 1, 2004

By J Kuva, M Parian, B I. Pålsson

One of the main factors affecting the suitability of an ore for autogenous grinding is the ore’s competency, ie providing enough critical stones for the grinding process. Several experimental test routines exist and are used for assessing the viability of the ore for autogenous grinding. However, very little attention is given to the generation of fatigue in large stones experiencing repeated shocks in the mill. To investigate this, large pebbles sampled from an industrial autogenous grinding mill running hard and soft ores were categorised based on the grinding energy. From the pebbles, small drill core samples were prepared and went through a series of fatigue cycle tests. Both hard and soft ores showed similar average resistance to failure in compression tests, but the hard ore had a consistent resistance with lower variations. The cores were scanned by XCT before and in-between fatigue tests at the highest reachable resolution, 1.5 µm voxel size. The outcome showed that a higher number of micro-cracks were visible in the soft ore compared to the hard ore. The frequency of micro-crack development in the soft ore may be the reason for its lower specific grinding energy compared to the hard ore. It is obvious that for realistic conditions in an autogenous grinding mill, stones are pre-weakened by fatigue before they fracture. Therefore, shortcut methods focusing only on running tests on fresh and small samples may operate in unrealistic conditions by ignoring the fatigue phenomenon. This is even more important for ores that are on the borderline to be considered as competent for autogenous milling.

Aug 24, 2022

By P Mugebe, M Yahyaei, M S. Kizil, R Low

This paper seeks to establish an empirical relationship between the impact of mining technological innovation implementation and a company’s market value. The company’s market value is represented by its stock price. In a bid to ascertain the relationship, a stock price prediction model is sought to be established using the firm-specific factors impacted by the implementation of innovative technology. This work is performed under the watch of the prevailing macroeconomic factors. The background anchors in the understanding that the difference between the economic status of a mineral deposit and its uneconomic status lies in the level of mining technological innovation most prevalent at a given time (Hartwick, Olewiler and Preuss, 1986; Wellmer and Scholz, 2017; Wright and Czelusta, 2003). This is derived from productivity improvement, resulting in sustainable profitability due to technological innovation. Unfortunately, there is not an adequately established relationship that links this technological innovation impact to the share price performance of the mineral commodity company.

Sep 1, 2024

By A M. Suchowerska, J P. Carter, J P. Hambleton

"In order to effectively predict the roof collapse of underground openings using continuum models, it is imperative that a realistic failure criterion is used to represent the rock mass. However, for coal mining operations, there is still uncertainty as to the appropriate failure criterion that should be used for the coal measure strata. This study compares stability numbers and collapse mechanisms for a rectangular underground opening predicted based on three commonly used failure criteria: the standard Mohr-Coulomb, Mohr-Coulomb with a tension cut-off and Hoek-Brown. Three methods of analysis are considered: an analytical upper bound method an upper and lower bound finite element formulation the displacement finite element method.The theoretical results are also compared with field measurements of subsidence above longwall coal mining. For the standard Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, the friction angle governs the shape of the collapse mechanism, and the so-called critical width (the cavity width above which failures extend to the ground surface) ascertained from field observations in the New South Wales coalfields corresponds to a friction angle of approximately 30°. On the other hand, predictions obtained based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion consistently overestimate the critical width. The results also show that tensile failure governs the stability of the cavity and shape of the collapse mechanism when a tension cut-off is introduced for the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion.CITATION:Suchowerska, A M, Hambleton, J P and Carter, J P, 2014. Prediction of roof collapse for rectangular underground openings, in Proceedings AusRock 2014: Third Australasian Ground Control in Mining Conference, pp 367–374 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Nov 5, 2014

By P Stewart, S Cowie, A Offer, J Carpenter, E Jones

The Ban Houayxai Gold-Silver Operation is a producing asset for Australian-based copper and gold producer, PanAust Limited. The Operation lies within PanAust’s 2600 square-kilometre Phu Bia Contract Area in northern Laos. Commencing production in 2012, Ban Houayxai is operated by PanAust’s Lao-registered company, Phu Bia Mining. PanAust owns a 90 per cent interest in Phu Bia Mining. The Government of Laos owns the remaining 10 per cent. The Operation mines an intermediate sulphidation epithermal gold-silver deposit and comprises an open-pit feeding ore to a conventional carbon-in-leach process plant. Metallurgical recoveries for gold and silver are approximately 75-85 per cent and 55 per cent respectively. To year-end 2017, the Operation had poured 0.65 million ounces (oz) of gold and 4.7 million oz of silver. The Ban Houayxai Ore Reserve supports a mine life of approximately four years from the end of 2017. The Ban Houayxai deposit is in an early Permian volcano-sedimentary unit which is part of a late Carboniferous to early Permian (310–270 million years ago) volcanic-plutonic sequence of the Truong Son Fold Belt. The deposit formed when hot saline (240–415°C, 2.7–13.0 weight per cent NaCl equivalent) fluids ascended from a geologically fertile island arc porphyry into overlying volcanics along a fault or faults in the early Permian (290–256 million years ago) (Manaka et al, 2014). CITATION: Carpenter, J, Cowie, S, Stewart, P, Jones E, and Offer, A, 2018. Machine learning at a gold-silver mine: a case study from the Ban Houayxai Gold-Silver Operation, in Proceedings Complex Orebodies Conference 2018, pp 82–85 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 21, 2018

Blasthole cone samples are used for grade control in most of the iron ore mines of the Pilbara of Western Australia. This method of sampling is straightforward when the target sampling interval matches the mining bench height but is problematic when the blasted bench is 'flitch' mined in two or more passes. Crucially, the sampler needs to decide which part of the blast cone represents the upper and lower flitches to be mined. This sampling selection decision is usually made by assuming a certain proportion represents the subdrill component of a sampling face in a blasthole cone and the two flitches are split equally from the remaining portion. In this study of a West Australian channel iron deposit, sampling experiments were carried out to determine the actual proportions of a sampling face in a blasthole cone by spray painting the blast cones at flitch and subdrill boundaries during the drilling process. Measurements were then taken to assess the differences between assumed sampling face proportions and actual proportions. A set of paired samples was also collected from a number of blastholes with one set using the assumed proportions of each flitch for each sample, while the other set sampled the actual proportions, which were identified from the cone painting process.

Mar 1, 2010

By C K. Boafo, J Visser

Obuasi Mine in Ghana, with more than 100 years of mining history, developed from a surface operation into a deep >2000 m underground gold mine. The challenge is to extract value from narrow veins left after extensive mining in the wider ore zones of the mine. Since the merger of AngloGold and Ashanti Goldfields in 2004 the mine strives to achieve optimum extraction through an integrated Mineral Resource management process from geological modelling, resource evaluation to mine design and scheduling. The shear hosted gold deposit displays complex secondary shears of variable thickness and continuity. There is an ongoing process of changes taking place in the way that geological modelling and resource estimation is done. Recent developments include the use of computerised systems that support the whole resource management chain from resource modelling to reserve optimisation. The change in thought and technology now allows for targeting narrow veins previously ignored in optimisation and mine design since moving into mechanised mining. The increased knowledge and confidence in the resource models now allows for flexibility in mine design, selection of mining method and scheduling and extraction of the reserves. The focus area for change is the way the orebody is evaluated and extraction designed. Since 2005 major changes were made to the process. This paper considers the historical approach of resource management. It looks at the individual process changes and qualifying the way ahead.

Jan 1, 2008

By T P. Medhurst

In many cases mine design is the most important driver of the profitability of a mining project, however to reach an æoptimumÆ mine plan many compromises have to be made. Some of the fundamental profit (and loss) drivers relate to stoping methods and stope design parameters. Inevitably trade-offs have to be made between the stability of underground openings, ground support costs and production efficiency. This paper looks at the role of geomechanics in the mine planning and design process. The concepts of æcontrollable lossesÆ and æuncontrollable lossesÆ are developed as a means of partitioning ground control costs. A stope design example is given which provides a method of examining mining costs, and includes a decision making element in order to quantify geotechnical impacts and select stope dimensions. The method also provides a general framework as a means of balancing ground control costs against maximising returns from an underground mining project.

Jan 1, 2000

By B W. Ham

The legacy of underground coal mining may be a land surface which, in parts, may be unstable in the long term. A case study analysis has been undertaken to explain some of the hazards and how the risk may be assessed and managed.The Ipswich Coal Measures were extensively mined with shallow underground workings, which now underlie a number of suburbs in the eastern side of the city of Ipswich in south eastern Queensland. The area was subject to underground mining from the 1840s to 1997. In general, the mines were small, family-owned operations that were restricted by complex geology, interactions with neighbouring operations and ownership of surface facilities. The oldest available mine plans date back to the late 1890s.The residents in these mining areas have a long history of unexpected mining subsidence events. A level of risk management for property owners has been implemented by the Ipswich City Council, which requires a mining subsidence risk assessment to be submitted as part of building applications for property development in the areas suspected of having mining subsidence risk. This discussion examines a series of generic subsidence events and how the risk may be assessed and managed and the hazard controlled.CITATION:Ham, B?W, 2014. The legacy of underground coal mining – mine subsidence: Ipswich coal measures case study, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2014 , pp 113–120 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 16, 2014

By I Minniakhmetov, J Ashford

Orebodies constitute naturally occurring, commonly highly variable concentrations of minerals in the earth’s crust formed through varying and highly unpredictable processes. Orebody knowledge is a core foundation of a mining company’s asset base underpinning all decisions about Mineral Resource and Ore Reserves, future production, development and ultimately the profitability and competitiveness of a mining enterprise. The decision to invest in a mineral project is usually based upon a techno-economic evaluation of the project and having clear approval pathways to gain local community support and address social and environmental impacts. The main objective of the techno-economic evaluation is to determine the optimum development sequence for the particular orebody in question and to estimate the economic viability of the project and the future return on investment to its stakeholders, balancing the inherent value of the mineral in the ground against the costs of development and market pricing. With the exception of market-driven commodity prices, virtually all revenue and cost estimates fundamentally stem from the understanding and subsequent modelling of the orebody. A reliable estimate of the ore deposit grade and other geological value-drivers is the foundation upon which the business case for future mine development and operation is intricately dependent. Orebody knowledge is, therefore, the fundamental driver of the mineral project cycle, influencing the progression of studies and consequently, the resource company’s ability to declare Exploration Results, Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves which govern the source and cost of funding available to the project. Drilling provides a ‘vector’ to the true nature of the orebody and effectively buys time to manage the technical risk associated with the orebody. Despite its perceived high cost, in both time and money terms, drilling is the only available technology for acquiring the necessary orebody knowledge to support technical and economic studies and to minimise orebody-driven cash flow uncertainty and volatility. However, like all costs, pressure to minimise drilling budgets is ubiquitous across the minerals industry. Paired with inappropriate key performance indicators, drilling is often regarded as a cost to be minimised, rather than an investment to be optimised. Furthermore, as future deposits get deeper and more complex, the collection of orebody knowledge is increasingly on the critical path for project development. The increasing cost of data collection pertaining to these deposits increases the temptation to minimise orebody knowledge gathering at the cost of long-term value as the reduction or postponement of drilling results in greater orebody knowledge risk at all stages of the value chain. Indeed the true cost of the decision to drill less is rarely known until the mine is in operation, well after the mine project evaluation team has moved on. This paper aims to promote orebody knowledge as the fundamental source of endogenous project financial risk and, consequently, its critical importance in project financial evaluation. Furthermore, the report documents experimental research into the development of an econometric model for valuing orebody knowledge. Using the density of drilling data as a proxy measure of orebody knowledge, the proposed approach integrates well-established stochastic grade modelling techniques with the mathematical mechanics of Decoupled Net Present Value (DNPV) which, combined with stochastic grade modelling (conditional simulation), lends itself to the financial International Mining Geology Conference 2022 | Brisbane, Australia and Online | 22–23 March 2022 3 assessment of orebody knowledge risk. Based on this approach, a metric is formulated, representing the minimum value of the orebody knowledge added by additional drilling

Mar 22, 2022

For the mineral industry, sustainability seems to mean socially positive and ecologically neutral mineral extraction. Mines are financed and developed in response to demand for their products. The purpose of my paper is to indicate the potential dimension of demand. As part of an unrelated study which I undertook ten years ago, it became apparent that there is a persistent relationship within communities between infant mortality and mineral use; greater mineral use corresponds to a lower rate of infant mortality. This comes as no surprise; sufficient potable water, a reliable supply of food, hygienic waste disposal, hot water and refrigeration all improve the chances of survival of the more vulnerable members of any community. The predictable provision of these facilities requires the application of minerals. This relationship is supported by a table (Appendix 1) included in the UNICEF publication, æThe State of the WorldÆs Children 2001Æ. This table lists regional infant mortality rate (IMR) statistics from around the world, including a listing for æindustrialised countriesÆ. Such countries experience an IMR lower by an order of magnitude than any other region. æIndustrialisedÆ inevitably involves the use of metallic and energy minerals. The principal use of copper is in the generation and distribution of power; it is fundamental to any industrialisation. IMR is a valuable connection because it quantifies caring for the young, a vital strategic driver of human behaviour independent of time, place, fashion or economic circumstances. I have tabulated the population, IMR and the copper demand per head of population for countries containing over 99 per cent of the population of the world in the years 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1989, and 1999. These countries have been consolidated into four groups, Very High, High, Medium and Low rates of infant mortality (UNICEF has used this terminology; the Low group includes all the æindustrialised countriesÆ). The purpose of this consolidation was to reduce the volume of work, to dampen out the impact of regional wars and business cycles, and to dampen out the variable quality of information. Based on the pattern of the copper demand, population and IMR over the last 50 years, I have projected the likely copper demand in 50 years time. A dominant feature of my tabulation is the increase per decade in copper use per head and a corresponding reduction of the IMR. The word æuseÆ is preferred to æconsumptionÆ because it is estimated that over 80 per cent of all the copper ever mined is still in circulation There are two major influences at work; one is the absolute increase in population (UN estimates for 2050 are updated periodically) and the second is the movement of countries into a higher pattern of use and lower IMR. For example the Medium group in 1989 had an infant mortality rate approximating that of the Low group in 1960. With the population of the Medium group (which includes Russia and China) forecast to reach 2.6 billion in 2050, the world copper demand in that year will be significantly greater than the present figure. Nevertheless it will not be as great relatively as the increase of over 300 per cent in the last 50 years.

Jan 1, 2002