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By Michael Gobla

"Since 1994 the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) has used risk analysis to evaluate dams. Risk considers both the likelihood of failure and the expected consequences should failure occur. Risk analysis relies on the detailed formulation and critical analysis of all possible potential failure modes. Potential failure modes are formulated by describing the sequence of events that must occur to result in failure, where failure is defined as the uncontrolled release of the impounded reservoir. Failure occurs in response to loadings such as water seepage through a dam (static forces), shaking from an earthquake (dynamic forces), sudden flood inflows (hydrologic forces), or accidental overfilling (operational errors). Reclamation has, to a limited extent, applied risk analysis to inactive and abandoned mines to evaluate tailings dams, pit lakes and flooded underground mines. Case histories of potential failure mode analysis, as applied to mine impounded water, illustrate what critical technical information is needed to determine if failure is likely, what the consequences of failure are likely to be, and what are the highest risks that should be addressed first.IntroductionImpounded water and high water content wastes at mining and industrial processing sites are potential threats to public safety and the environment. Recent failures such as the TVA Kingston flyash impoundment failure in Tennessee in 2008 (4.1 million m3 or 5.4 million cu yd) release, the Mt. Poly Tailings Dam failure in British Columbia in 2014 (4.4 million m3 or 5.8 million cu yd) release, and the Samarco Fundao Tailings Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 (59 millon m3 or 78 million cu yd) release have renewed attention to this issue. Potential risks from impounded water at mining and industrial sites originate not only from tailing dams, but also from water in process ponds and conveyance pipelines, sediment retention dams, water retention dams, mine pit lakes and flooded underground mine workings.Conventional water retaining dams also have a record of failure. Notable examples of failure include Vajont Dam in Italy in 1963 (2,600 lives lost), Banqiao and Shimantan Dams in China in 1975 (171,000 lives lost), and Machhu-II Dam in India (10,000 lives lost). After the 1976 Teton Dam failure in Idaho, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) established a Dam Safety Program. By 1984, the agency developed and began using risk analysis methods. BOR operates and maintains an inventory of hundreds of aging dams which were designed and constructed over a period of 100 years. Many of these facilities were designed and constructed prior to the development and adaptation of modern soil mechanics in dam engineering. Diligent observational monitoring, detailed site investigations and the application of risk evaluation to the BOR dam inventory has identified many deficiencies resulting in significant demands on available funding for remediation efforts. The application of risk analysis has allowed the agency to rank sites by risk. By giving priority of remedial efforts to high-risk sites, significant improvements to dam safety have been achieved."

Dec 1, 2016

By J. J. Forbes

Problems connected with the incidence, effects, determination, and control of dusts are still much before the public, although more information is available to the layman than when Bulletin 400, of which this publication is a revision,5 was issued in 1937. Bulletin 400 attempted to assemble information in convenient form on various phases of the dust problem, largely in the mining and allied industries. This revision includes data that have accumulated since 1937 and some that appeared previous thereto but were not available to the authors at that time. The literature on this subject is so voluminous that no attempt has been made to include all published material or all types of dust diseases, but only to assemble some of the more outstanding data on several aspects of the subject.

Jan 1, 1950

By J Harris, J Li, M Shi, P A. Kirsch, D Sprott

Australia has an enviable global reputation as a leader in health and safety outcomes in the hazardous industry of mining, in part due to an increased application of risk management regarding operational planning and mining practice. In 2010, the Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) initiated a major project, RISKGATE, to build, capture and deliver a national body of knowledge to assist companies with the management of risk in coal mining. The online system contains information for tyres, collisions, fires, isolation, strata underground, ground control open cut, explosions, explosives underground, explosives open cut, manual tasks, slips/trips/falls, outbursts, coal bumps and bursts, human–machine interface, tailings dams, occupational hygiene and inrush. In 2014, RISKGATE is developing content for fitness for work (fatigue, drugs, alcohol, physical well-being, psychosocial well-being).This paper analyses underground mining fatalities in Australia and the United States since 2002 and introduces RISKGATE with a focus on the knowledge base for management of hazards in underground operations. Through capturing coal industry expert operational knowledge, RISKGATE provides a cumulative corporate memory at a time of high personnel turnover within the mining industry. This coal-based body of knowledge is a platform that can be evaluated and implemented for other mining domains and high-risk industries within the energy supply chain.CITATION:Kirsch, P A, Shi, M, Harris, J, Li, J and Sprott, D, 2014. RISKGATE and underground operations, in Proceedings 12th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference 2014 , pp 11–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Mar 24, 2014

By PEILIN LAN, LEONARD HILL, SIMON TIMBILLAH, BERNARD FOSU, CESAR SOSA-BLANCO

The use of sodium hydrosulfide (NaHS) in most of the operations in byproduct molybdenum flotation comes with safety concerns and, in some instances, a high reagent cost. Engineered solutions at the various operations where NaHS is used have immensely reduced the possibility of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) gas evolution. However, the threat of exposure remains, and this, coupled with the high dosages of NaHS consumed, supports the continued search for alternative depressants. This paper focuses on efforts to study the applicability of disodium carboxymethyl trithiocarbonate (DCMT), an organic depressant, as an alternative to NaHS. Bench-scale rougher flotation results for samples from the Sierrita copper–molybdenum (Cu–Mo) plant showed the best DCMT performance at 8 kg/t of DCMT, pH 10.5, 30 min of shear conditioning and 10 min of flotation conditioning. The Aminpro plant model simulation confirmed that 4 to 8 kg/t DCMT under certain shearing and conditioning times achieved superior or equivalent Mo–Cu separation efficiencies when compared\ to NaHS.

By H Arvidson, A Walker, N Pollock

Following the recent tailings tragedy in Brumadinho, the Investor Mining and Tailings Safety Initiative was formed representing institutional investors in the mining industry. This Initiative, led by The Church of England (CoE), requested data from 726 mining companies on each of their Tailings Storage Facilities (TSFs). What this exercise confirmed was that there was no public database of TSFs, and that there was a clear gap in tailings management systems within the disclosing companies. We present an approach using technology to support best practice TSF management, governance and disclosure which was originally submitted as part of University of Cambridge Post-graduate studies in Sustainability Leadership in January 2020. The aim of the paper is to discuss how technology could be used to deliver a Tailings Management Solution (TMS) that is aligned with the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM), and supports rigorous governance leading to disclosure. Subsequently the goals of the plan are aligned with that of the co-conveners of the GISTM (the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)) which is to facilitate operators’ trajectory towards zero harm to people and the environment. Most of the focus to date around tailings management post Brumadinho has been on monitoring technologies, of which there are many. It is obviously important to acknowledge the critical role of monitoring technologies; however, our approach is agnostic to monitoring technologies and assumes that all of them are relevant. Our focus is on the data management, reporting and governance leading to disclosure of the information. Critical components of developing the TMS include adapting existing software products and solutions, recognising a system thinking approach is needed, strategic partnerships to deliver an accessible solution faster and more cost effectively, and, new ways of collaborating. The TMS should also accommodate relevant regional geotechnical codes and standards. The industry need for a TMS is well established and urgent, with significant pressure from regulators and civil society for the industry to address this significant issue.

Jul 1, 2021

By Mitchell L. Spencer, Viswanathan Panchanathan

"Bonded magnets are important category in permanent magnets. They are made by one of the following processes: compression bonding, injection molding, extrusion, calendering. An overview of the various bonded magnet processes and properties of products made with different magnet materials along with their applications are discussed. The main emphasis will be on the use of bonded NdFeB and ferrite magnets.IntroductionBonded magnets are a major growth area in permanent magnets. Bonded magnets are made by any one of the following processes: Compression bonding; Injection Molding; Extrusion and Calendering [1,2]. Compression and injection molded magnets are rigid magnets. Materials used in calendering process produce flexible magnets. Only the extrusion process makes both rigid and flexible magnets. The binders used for the bonded magnets vary depending on the processes. Thermoset, thermo-plastic and elastomeric binders are respectively used in compression, injection and the calendering process. Extrusion molding uses elastomers or thermo-plastic materials. The most co=on magnetic materials, Ferrite, SmCo, Alnico and NdFeB can be used in any of the above processes either alone or in combination as hybrid magnets. Another material that has been developed for co=ercial application is SmFeN. Making the material has been challenging and it is being used in niche market applications in limited quantitiesIn the extrusion process, a highly loaded compound is used to produce strip or sheet and is continuously extruded through a die. In calendering the granulated compound is rolled to produce a continuous wide sheet. In the compression bonding process a uniaxial pressing force is used. These magnets have higher loading compared to injection molded magnets. In injection molding the material is forced into a mold cavity and has lower loading compared to compression molded magnets [2,3]. Most of the flexible magnets are made using extrusion and calendering processes and the most co=on magnet material is inexpensive ferrite. Flexible magnets have been made using rare earth materials, but on a very limited basis.The major advantages of magnets processed by extrusion and calendering are as follows: inexpensive tooling, automation; practically any 2D geometry; fast production rates; no chipping or breaking; a wide range of properties; on-line magnetization; easy to convert (e.g. cut, punch or shape).Compression bonded magnets are inexpensive to manufacture. They have higher magnetic properties compared to injection molded magnets; however lower than their sintered counterparts. The magnet shape is restricted to simple geometries and they require careful handling. Their isotropic nature allows complex magnetizing patterns."

Jan 1, 2013

By R Jacobs, J Yeates

"The Stockman base metals project is situated in State Forest in the alpine area of East Gippsland, Victoria, adjacent to a National Park and within the headwaters of a major Ramsar-listed wetland catchment and the Murray-Darling River system. Site topography is steep, and elevated (650 m – 1200 m above sea level), and subject to circa 1 m annual rainfall, with occasional winter snowfall. The project consists of two volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits to be mined by underground methods and treated in a 1.0 Mt/a central concentrator to produce copper and zinc concentrates for export over a ten year operational life. New resource projects are rare in Victoria. Recognising the sensitive setting, planning for the Stockman Project, which is now in the advanced permitting stage, has focused on balancing economic, environmental and social outcomes to ensure social licence to operate is secured and can be maintained. This has involved close attention to triple bottom line (TBL) risks and outcomes. Stockman has successfully gained State and Federal approvals via the Environmental Effects Statement process. The process of obtaining these approvals has required close attention to effective stakeholder involvement, and management of a lengthy and difficult approvals process, which is still to be finally concluded. This paper is a case study of the process of that permitting and the issues encountered to date. Key learnings from the experience have included: successful approvals require close attention to much more than just the project and its technical aspects and physical setting – effective stakeholder involvement and endorsement is critical the differing consultation requirements for local, regional and government stakeholders, to design and plan implementation of a project to meet TBL objectives, and to gain social licence to operate within the Victorian approvals process, the need for an effective lead government agency with policy authority dealing with material policy change requiring post-closure financial sureties estimating realistic permitting time and cost during the project evaluation phase. CITATION: Jacobs, R and Yeates, J, 2016. Stockman base metals project – sustainability, social licence to operate and permitting lessons learnt, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2016, pp 98–110 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Mar 8, 2016

By B Poborowski, A Chen

"For some time, the Australian and Chinese underground coal mining industries have evolvedindependently with minimal infl uence on each other. Despite the fact that in recent years severaltechnologies and solutions have become common to both industries, this trend has seeminglycontinued to the point that there are still many important diff erences in legislation and hazardmanagement systems in both countries. Austar Coal Mine as an Australian based and Chineseowned enterprise has a unique opportunity to benefi t from the technology and knowledge ofboth nations. This paper compares the Australian and Chinese approach towards spontaneouscombustion hazard management in order to exchange experience, identify possible improvements and learn from each other."

Jun 1, 2012

By A Calderon, J Harris, M Shi, D Viswanathan, C Ribeiro Duthie, P A. Kirsch

Mineral resource development activities impact the health and well-being of many people, from workers, to families and surrounding communities. In the current environment of corporate social responsibility life-of-mine planning considers that mining activities should be conducted in the best environmentally, socially and economically acceptable way for the entire life of the mine (ie from exploration to decommissioning and closure). In this context, the health impacts of mining extend throughout the life of the community from worker injury and chronic exposure to communicable and non-communicable causes of illness, through to family and community health and well-being. At the inaugural Life-of-Mine conference in July 2012, the authors proposed the life-of-mine in the life-of-community (LOMLOC) matrix as a framework for understanding issues at the interface between resource extraction operations and the surrounding environment.This paper reviews and compares health activities extracted from social and environmental reports published by selected major mining companies with American operations in Canada, Colombia and Brazil. These corporate approaches to public health management are mapped to the LOMLOC matrix to identify and compare trends and behaviour in corporate health investments. This analysis of how companies approach and prioritise health issues in the context of different regions, cultures and environmental drivers will serve as a resource for minerals industry managers, civil society and regulators regarding current health management approaches in this sector.CITATION:Ribeiro Duthie, C, Calderon, A, Viswanathan, D, ?Shi, M, Harris, J and Kirsch, P A, ?2014. Resource company investments in health – a life-of-mine / life-of-community perspective across America, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2014 , pp 349–364 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 16, 2014

By Jeffery L. Kohler

This final report on Bureau of Mines Contract J0338028 presents the results of a research effort to predict incipient failure in electric-power-system components. The development of continuous monitoring techniques to detect an incipient failure would represent a significant improvement in system maintainability, availability and safety, This report describes the analytical and experimental aspects of the project. Mathematical models have been developed to study the behavior of cables and motors which are undergoing a deterioration process. These models allow a detailed study of the effect of deterioration on the component's terminal characteristics and performance. The efficacy of using negative-sequence monitoring is a reliable indication of deterioration has been established. Techniques for assessing the sensitivity of the prediction algorithm to component deterioration have been presented. An approach for modelling electrically-excited vibrations, and including these in the algorithm, has been presented.

Jan 1, 1987

By O Haavisto, N Khajehzadeh, L Koresaar

Online analysis of metal content can be used to optimise the grade and recovery of a flotation circuit. Compared to conventional laboratory analyses, the benefit of an online analyser is the speed of the measurement, therefore disturbances (eg changes in feed grade and decrease in recovery) can be reacted to in real time by an operator or automatic process control system. In some cases traditional X-ray fluorescence analysers can be applied to silica analysis in iron ore when the SiO2 grades are high enough and have a negative correlation with iron; however, generally a laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) analyser is more suitable for low Z elements.The Outotec Courier 8® analyser is a LIBS based analyser able to measure elements starting from lithium (Z = 3), thus being able to measure impurities; eg silica and aluminium directly in iron ore slurries. Besides online elemental analysis, the analyser can be combined with optical measurements for rapid continuous measurement of each sample line. Laboratory testing has also shown potential for mineralogical analysis using the combination of LIBS and reflectance spectroscopy.CITATION:Koresaar, L, Khajehzadeh, N, Haavisto, O and Timperi, J, 2017. Online elemental and mineral measurement of slurries in iron ore beneficiation, in Proceedings Iron Ore 2017, pp 561–566 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 24, 2017

By T J. M Harvey

This paper gives an overview of the ASHRAE LibHuAirProp, CoolProp and REFPROP software packages. These packages were predominantly developed for heating, refrigerating and air conditioning engineers and the refrigeration and steam power industries, although CoolProp and REFPROP also cover combustible gases. The main aim of this paper is to highlight the existence capabilities and status of the different packages and where they can be used. The paper gives typical examples of the use of these software packages, specifically as Excel add-ins, and provides a comparison of results of typical mine psychometric and gas drainage calculations using the packages and more traditional ventilation and gas drainage calculation methods. The paper also introduces a hybrid method that improves accuracy compared to traditional methods. In typical mine situations, the use of software packages is probably not required; however, with the increasing accuracy of instruments, potential greenhouse emission costs and the sale of mine gas, more accurate measurements and calculations can potentially save (or make) significant sums of money.CITATION:Harvey, T J M, 2015. The use of psychometric, thermodynamic and transport property software in mine ventilation and gas drainage calculations, in Proceedings The Australian Mine Ventilation Conference, pp 201–210 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 31, 2015

By Dominic C, Gregory B. Poole

On December 12, 2018 at 4:14 AM EST, an earthquake registering a 4.4 magnitude on the Richter Scale occurred in central Tennessee. According to a survey posted on the USGS website, this earthquake was felt throughout the southeast and even as far away as Arnold Nebraska. That’s over 900 miles (1,448 kilometers) from the epicenter. We recorded the vibrations from this earthquake on 44 different seismographs that were set up with remote access to continuously monitor vibrations from blasting activities. Having this data gave us an opportunity to compare the vibrations caused by earthquakes and blasting. A simple observation of the amplitudes, frequencies, and durations is enough to notice that vibrations from earthquakes are very different than vibrations caused by blasting in mining and construction

Feb 1, 2020

By Edward E. Johnson

The U.S. economy made significant progress in 1984. The current-dollar gross national product (GNP), the market value of the Nation's output of goods and services, increased almost 11 percent over that of 1983 to slightly more than $3.66 trillion (table 1), and the real gross national product increased almost 7 percent.2/ Such rapid growth in real GNP has not occurred since the early 1950's. Real final sales increased only 5 percent during 1984, and real business inventories increased $24.8 billion ($57.9 billion in current dollars). Total employment of 106.7 million was an all-time record, and the unemployment rate declined from 9.5 percent in 1983 to 7.4 percent in 1984. During 1984 the U.S. dollar showed great strength on international markets, contributing to large current-dollar negative net exports of goods and services (-$62.5 billion) and even larger negative net exports of merchandise (-$107.6 billion). The strong dollar and the substantial increase in net imports of goods and services helped reduce U.S. inflationary pressures and provided a major source of loanable funds for financing domestic private investment.

Jan 1, 1985

By G Marling, A Calderon, J Harris, P Kirsch, M Shi, D Sprott, A Kirsch

Large-scale infrastructure construction needs to comprehensively manage risks that can impact the health and well-being of many people, from workers (temporary, contracted or full time), to families and surrounding communities. This paper starts with an analysis of incidents (injury, fatality, other damage) in tunnel construction between 2000 and 2014 and assesses the distribution of these events by continent, year, and severity of outcomes. These incidents are then analysed and mapped to a framework of hazards derived from RISKGATE (2014). A comparative register of current tunnel construction risk management guidance is derived from current Australian codes of practice and this register is also mapped to the RISKGATE framework of hazards to identify where coal industry knowledge may offer utility to the tunnelling industry.An initiative of the Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP), RISKGATE is an interactive online risk management system developed to assist the mining industry in implementing continual improvement in the management of major unwanted events. To date, a comprehensive knowledge base has been captured for risk management of tyres, collisions, fires, isolation, strata underground, ground control open cut, explosions, explosives, outbursts, coal bumps and bursts, human/machine interface, manual tasks, slips/trips/falls, inrush and occupational hygiene. By capturing operational knowledge from industry experts, RISKGATE provides a cumulative corporate memory at a time of high personnel turnover in the coal industry.This paper proposes and outlines how knowledge within the RISKGATE platform could be applied to managing the significant health and safety risks associated with tunnelling. The authors suggest that to varying degrees the knowledge already captured in RISKGATE is likely to be transferable to tunnelling construction operations. Please note that this paper focuses on tunnel construction and does not address risk management of tunnels in operation (eg road transportation or utility networks).CITATION:Kirsch, P, Kirsch, A, Calderon, A, Marling, G, Harris, J, Shi, M and Sprott, D, 2014. Management of health and safety in tunnelling – application of Australian coal mining knowledge, in Proceedings 15th Australasian Tunnelling Conference 2014 , pp 563–572 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 17, 2014

By JESSICA W. A. AZURE, Samuel Frimpong, AZUPURI G. A. KABA, FORSYTH A. KADINGDI, PROSPER E. A. AYAWAH

The efficient and effective utilization of hydraulic excavators relies on, among other factors, a better understanding of the formation resistance during the excavation process. Studies on hydraulic shovel excavators have focused on optimizing the digging process by considering the reaction of the boom, stick and bucket, and analyzing the resulting moments at the shovel’s front-end joints. These studies failed to understand resistive forces from a statistical viewpoint. The purpose of this paper is to develop machine-learning models capable of predicting the formation of resistive forces during shovel excavation. The shovel’s excavation was simulated in the PFC 5.0 environment using a typical field-size hydraulic shovel bucket to generate the shovel contact forces required to overcome formation resistance

By MEHMET KIZIL, PETER KNIGHTS, ROYAL REA

A 1/20 scale experimental dozer push test rig was designed and constructed to quantify the expected production rates (loose cubic meters per hour) for dozers operating in hard-rock bulk push applications. The particle size distribution of the material employed in the test rig was modeled on a fragmented muckpile representative of that for a typical surface copper/gold mine overburden. Buckingham Pi theory was applied to mathematically develop factors for scaling up dozer productivity parameters, including blade loads and push times. Dozer production rates were investigated for various dozing distances and slope angles. A series of instantaneous productivity curves were produced which are applicable for use in hard-rock dozer push operations. The productivity curves produced demonstrate that dozer productivity declines rapidly over the range of 10 to 40 m.

By R N. Humphries, R J. K Thompson

Large-scale coal mining in South Wales dates back to the late 18th and early 19th centuries with the birth of ironmaking on an industrial scale. This rapidly gave rise to new and large communities with immigration from far and wide across the United Kingdom (UK). These new communities were largely dependent on coal mining and served as the main form of employment and social cohesion until the industry’s demise in the 1990s. With wholesale mine closure and the concomitant loss of employment, the extensive environmental degradation and chronic mine-related illness left a deep scar on the psyche on many still living in the South Wales mining communities. This coupled with memories of strife in the 1980s has resulted in ongoing hostility toward the surface coal mining of the remaining accessible coal reserves in the proximity of these communities.The purpose of this paper is to set out the historical basis of the concerns of these legacy mining communities in South Wales and explain how they are being positively addressed by both the recently evolved planning and regulation system and by today’s surface mining industry. Reference is made to experience gained from two recent applications for surface coal mining adjacent to former mining communities. Ways are suggested in the approval process that surface mining can work in more harmony with the local communities through working partnerships between the mining company, the authorities and regulators and the affected communities. It is concluded that partnership is key to creating a more responsive mine-operating culture and a means to securing approval for future surface coal-mining prospects in South Wales, and probably elsewhere too.CITATION:Humphries, R N and Thompson, R J K, 2014. Surface mining and legacy mining communities in South Wales, UK, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2014 , pp 399–412 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 16, 2014

By Courtney A. Young

Cyanide is a fast-acting, highly toxic substance but, at the same time, is deemed essential for sustaining life as well 'as our standard of living. In this manuscript, the facts about cyanide are presented beginning with a brief history and definition and ending with a discussion on cyanide alternatives. Other topics include speciation, physical characteristics, toxicity, manufacturing, cyanogenics, cyanide cycle, separation, destruction, and markets including those outside the mining industry. Emphasis, of course, is placed on gold production by leaching and how it is influenced by ore type, mineral characteristics and economics as well as its advantages and disadvantages.

Jan 1, 1998

What is your assessment of the status of the mining industry as we see some evidence of an economic recovery? I am optimistic about the short and midterm prospects for the industry and, hence, for the professionals in the industry that constitute the majority of the SME membership. All who will read this interview recognize that the quality of life we enjoy today is largely a result of our achievements in the mining and minerals processing sectors. I believe that the sustainability of that quality of life and the aspirations of other sectors of the global community to attain that same lifestyle will significantly depend on the continued successes of these industries. Looking at some of the traditional economic indicators, we see predictions of continued increases in gold prices during the next 12 months as a new round of quantitative easing keeps real interest rates low and drives excess capital flows from countries with trade surpluses - who have traditionally parked their money in U.S. government bonds - into other investable assets, such as gold. On the fuel side of the industry, we have during the last decade seen a steady rise in the cost of coal, and some of the recent spot prices have seen dramatic increases. Some suggest that coal prices may rise sooner than anyone expects, as global reserves are revised downward. This is based on the hypothesis that some of the main coal-producing countries are overestimating supplies and that coal prices could start rising far sooner than anyone thinks - with obvious serious implications for energy policy. Those forecasters note that, for the past couple of decades, global supply has been dropping at a faster rate than consumption.

Jan 1, 2011