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By S H. Begg

There is strong evidence that many major oil and gas (O&G) projects are plagued by large cost and schedule overruns, or significant underperformance in productivity. Similar evidence exists for large mining projects. This paper claims that uncertainty is the underlying reason why projects fail to deliver the metrics used to justify their investment, or to deliver the economic value possible if alternative decisions had been made.Most technical and economic analyses are performed to reduce uncertainty to help make decisions. Decision-making is about ranking alternatives and choosing the best; rarely are precise predictions required, if this is even possible. Better uncertainty assessment is one of the keys to better decisions, thus better business outcomes. To get better decisions it is suggested that the focus or reward/penalty incentives be shifted away from the quality of outcomes to the quality of decisions. High-quality decisions are those that are generated from the skilled use of the tools, methodologies and processes from the discipline of decision analysis.Uncertainty is quantified by probability, which is a degree of belief in the truth/falsity of some proposition about a quantity relevant to a decision, such as volume of in-place resource, future price or action of a competitor. The probability a person ascribes to a proposition depends upon their information set; hence probability is subjective – it is not an inherent attribute of the quantity of interest or the physical system.The above simple observations have profound implications for modelling approaches, how they deal with uncertainty, the use of data to help assess uncertainty and the reliability of information provided by subject-matter experts. The limited circumstances under which frequency data (from spatial or temporal variables) can be used to assign probabilities is also reviewed.People, in general, are subject to a range of biases and cognitive errors. Research with O&G subject-matter experts shows that their expertise offers little or no protection from making errors in probability assessments and other judgements.CITATION:Begg, S H, 2016. Decisions, decisions – uncertainty, variability, modelling and psychology, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 9–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By J. E. Hawley, Y. Rimsaite, T. V. Lord

"IntroductionIN THE COURSE of. a spectrographic investigation of the platinum metal .content of various minerals in sulphide ores, the use of • fire-assay beads dissolved in gold-amalgam ( 1) was found suitable for the quantitative determination of palladium and platinum. Later work on platinum and bismuth-rich beads showed however, that these could not always be readily mixed uniformly in the amalgam. Accordingly another technique was sought which would allow the simultaneous determination of gold, silver, palladium, platinum, rhodium, and bismuth, the last .a common contaminant in fire-assay beads. The method evolved, which consists of dissolving fire-assay •beads in .lead, resembles in several respects the method of Scobie (2) in which silver was used. It has equally good sensitivity arid reproducibility, and allows the determination of silver as well as the other metals mentioned. The 'mutua1 standard' method of calculation (3a) is used to determine actual quantities present. This method has been applied to sulphide and arsenide minerals and •ores• of nickeliferous and non-nickelferous deposits• of both pre-and post Cambrian age, and, following a suggestion by Dr. G. S. Hume and the late Dr. H. V. Ellsworth, Geological Survey of Canada, has also been used for a peculiarly rich platiniferous uranium oxide ore from the Nicholson property, Lake Athakaska, Sask. More recently, the method has been .tested for the determination also of iridium and ruthenium and results indicate it may be applied, as• well to osmium."

Jan 1, 1953

U.S. producers for more than 5 months have priced 99.5 percent primary aluminum ingot at 486 per pound. Sales by independent dealers in this same period reportedly declined by 0.5$-2.5$ to 43.50- 44.56 per pound. CADMIUM: U.S. producer-published cadmium prices for the last 5 months have been at $3 per pound. Dealer quotes in the same period fell by almost 504 and ranged from $2.45 to $2.55 per pound.

Jan 1, 1977

By Michel C. Frippel

This section of the Minerals Yearbook reviews the minerals industries of 29 countries: the 12 nations of the European Community (Belgium, France, the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), Italy, Greece, the Netherlands, Denmark/Greenland, Spain, Portugal, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, and Ireland); 6 of the 7 nations of the European Free Trade Association (Sweden, Nor-way, Finland, Iceland, Austria, and Switzerland); Malta; the 8 Centrally Planned Economies of Eastern Europe (the German Democratic Republic (GDR), Poland, Yugoslavia, Albania, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria); and the U.S.S.R. Western Europe Western Europe [loosely defined to include the 12 nations of the European Com-munity (EC) and the 7 nations of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA)] is the single largest trading area and consumer of raw materials in the world. If Western Europe was at one time an important mining sector, it has now increasingly relegated the role of supplying minerals for its minerals processing industry to its ex-colonies in North and South America, Africa, and Australia. In this regard, Western Europe is the most important determinant of raw materials consumption (and thus raw materials production). There is an important reason for this since Western Europe lies somewhere between Japan at one extreme and the United States and the U.S.S.R. at the other extreme as regards the availability of natural resources.

Jan 1, 1992

The Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa) announced plans to shut down production at the remaining two potlines at its Point Comfort, Texas primary aluminum smelter due to the increased costs of natural gas. Total capacity of the facility, which had been partially closed since 1976, was 185,000 tons per year representing 3.6 percent of current capacity in the United States. There were practically no price movements in March on 99.5 percent aluminum ingot, with producers at 53¢ per pound and dealers, 48¢-48.5¢. BISMUTH The March selling position of U.S. producer metal was held at $3.50 per pound. In contrast, east coast dealers and traders adjusted their quotes from $2.55-$2.60 to a wider range of $2.40-$2.60.

Jan 1, 1978

The extremely cold weather and heavy snowstorms of January and February in northeastern Pennsylvania--with frozen mining equipment, diminished preparation and lack of railroad cars--severely hampered the production and distribution of anthracite. As a result, the previous estimates for the 2 months have been revised. On March 1, 1977, at the Porter Tunnel of the Kocher Coal Company at Tower City, Pa., an underground flash flood, which apparently broke through the wall of an adjoining abandoned shaft, swept through the mine. As of March 9, 1977, four miners were reported killed, three injured, and five trapped in the wreckage. The Kocher Coal Company began operations at the Porter Tunnel in 1968 and has had no fatalities until this current tragedy. The mine employs 20 persons on the surface and 115 miners underground, producing 750 tons of coal per day. Of the 109 underground mining operations in the anthracite region, this is the one remaining large mine that employs over 100 men.

Jan 1, 1977

By F. E. ROGERS

CUSHMAN TUNNEL No. 2 is adjacent to the Hood Canal, near potlatch, Wash. It is 17 ft. inside .diameter, about 13,000 ft., or two and one- half, miles in length, and is a part of the second unit of the Cushman power project. It connects Cushman ' Dam No. 2 and the penstocks that lead to the power house on the beach about 400 ft. vertically below the outlet of the tunnel. One shaft, 190 ft. deep, and two adits between 300 and 400 ft. long, were provided to speed up driving operations. his arrangement gave 6 working headings, which were operated 24 hr. daily. The shaft provided a manway, cageway, and skipway.

Jan 1, 1931

By H. D. B. Wilson, W C. Brisbin

The Thompson-Moak Lake nickel belt lies along the root of a Precambrian mountain range of the island-arc or alpine type. This range coin-. cides with the boundary between the Superior and Churchill blocks of the Canadian Precambrian shield. The nickeliferous peridotites and nickel ores occur along a negative gravity strip, which also coincides with strong thrust faulting and the axis of greatest deformation of the mountain range. Similar structures and highly nickeliferous peridotites occur in present-day island arcs. Much of the belt is covered by Paleozoic rocks, but a length of 270 miles may be explored by present-day methods. Nickel deposits have been located along 60 miles of the belt. The length of the favorable structure and the size of the known deposits suggest that this will be one of the world's major nickel regions. The regional gravity anomalies, which consist of a branching negative strip bordered by two positive strips, are best explained by major warps of a crust consisting of a granitic and basaltic layer. The ore deposit

Jan 1, 1961

By C. W. Handy

ONE LAW cannot he evaded, the economic law of supply and demand. Silver, like any other commodity, is subject to this law; and its price in the long run is determined by existing conditions. I say "in the lone run because at times silver has appeared to mope contra to basic coalitions. Such movements, however, are, occasioned by the market's attempt to anticipate changes in these governing conditions. If the expected changes materialize then the new market level is justified, but if they do not then the market will revert to its previous status, A striking example of such a move occurred in November when the price advanced over 70, in ten days and then in the next two weeks lost more than it had gained. The reasons for this advance were that the speculative element interpreted certain events as favorable to silver namely, England suspension of the gold standard, higher shat prices, and the Chinese-Japanese crisis. When these expectations proved unjustified the inevitably, elapse followed became the governing conditions had not channel.

Jan 1, 1932

The revised estimate of coal production in January 1977, is 39 million tons -- down 12 mi 11 ion tons compared with production in January of last year, largely as a consequence of the snow storms and cold. The major coal-hauling railroads operating in Eastern and Midwestern States reported to the Bureau of Mines that they loaded approximately the same number of cars for the week ended February 5, as in the preceding week. The Bureau of Mines estimates that U.S. coal production for the week ending February 5, 1977, was approximately 8.5 million tons, or nearly 3.5 million tons less than production for the corresponding week in 1976. Coal production from January 1 - February 5, 1977, was approximately 47.8 mi 11 ion tons compared with production of 63.5 million tons for the corresponding period in 1976. As of the first week in February, river and truck shipments of coal in the Eastern U.S. were about one-half of the normal traffic. Despite the freezing weather and ice and snow conditions of rivers and highways and reduced rail shipments, there was reportedly little or no shortage in coal supply to consumers. Inventories at electric utility plants and steel company coke plants at the beginning of the severe weather were sufficient in most cases for at least 30 days" operations. There have been no reports of coal shortages at other industrial plants.

Jan 1, 1977

The Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa) announced that the second unit at its experimental facility at Palestine, Tex. would begin production -in 1979, increasing the capacity of the facility to 30,000 tons per year. The plant uses an experimental process based on the electrolysis of aluminum chloride and reportedly uses 4 to 5 kilowatt hours per pound of aluminum produced, compared to an industry average of about 7 to 8 kilowatt hours per pound. Alcoa has reportedly signed a letter of intent with the Chinese government under which Alcoa will conduct feasibility studies on two new integrated aluminum projects and modernization of an existing aluminum plant. If the study results are favorable, Alcoa Engineers Inc. and the Import and Export Company of the Chinese Ministry of Metallurgical Industry could negotiate agreements to provide Alcoa technology and services for the projects.

Jan 1, 1979

[RALPH ADAIR Ore Dressing Consultant Bull Mtn. Rd., Asheville, N. C. Phone 4-1693 JAMES A. BARR Consulting Engineer Mt. Pleasant, Tennessee Washington, D.C. BEHRE DOLBEAR & COMPANY Consulting Mining Engineers and Geologists 11 Broadway New York 4, N. Y. I. R. BERENT Engineering Consultants and Contractors Mineral Exploration, Mine Evaluation, Mine Designs, and Mine Management 156, Ataturk Bulvari-Ankara, Turkey BLANDFORD C. BURGESS Registered Professional Engineer Mining Consultant Monticello, Georgia GLENVILLE A. COLLINS Mining Engineer Uranium examinations Cable "Coins" 210 La Arcada Bldg. Santa Barbara, Calif.]

Jan 1, 1952

Since the introduction of water cooled test rings the operation of cupelling retort bullion has not alone been sImplified, but has also been the means of concentrating the bullion for the fining test in a much shorter time.The first water cooled test ring which I used was rectangular in shape, inside dimensions 5 ft. 3 in. x 2 ft. IQ in., and made of i in. mild steel plates, with a water space of 9i in. x 3t in. However, it was found that as soon as the filling commenced to wear and the litharge came in contact with the jacket, the plate was gradually affected on the lines of the wash, caused by the blast. After a while the inside steel plate went beyond the factor of safety, and was then substituted on the sides and the front of the test ring by a tin copper plate, which has stood now for the last five years without showing the least signs of wear or leakage.The test remains in use as long as the bottom is regarded as safe, and toward the end of the life of the test the litharge is allowed to work against the copper plate.

Jan 1, 1901

[RALPH ADAIR Ore Dressing Consultant Bull Mtn. Rd., Asheville, N. C. Phone 4-1693 JAMES A. BARR Consulting Engineer Mt. Pleasant, Tennessee Washington, D.C. BEHRE DOLBEAR & COMPANY Consulting Mining Engineers and Geologists 11 Broadway New York 4. N. Y. I. R. BERENT Engineering Consultants and Contractors Mineral Exploration, Mine Evaluation, Mine Designs and Mine Management 156, Ataturk Bulvarl-Ankara, Turkey BLANDFORD C. BURGESS Registered Professional Engineer Mining Consultant Monticello, Georgia GLENVILLE A. COLLINS Mining Engineer Uranium examinations Cable "Coins" 210 La Arcade Bids. Santa Barbara, Calif.]

Jan 1, 1952

Demand for primary aluminum ingot increased during February, and several producers temporarily suspended new bookings for ingot. Alcoa announced that it would restart a potline at its Warrick, IN aluminum smelter by April 1, 1979, increasing the operations of that plant to its full capacity of 290,000 tons per year. At the end of February, it was reported that Alcoa would reactivate two of the seven units at its idle Point Comfort, TX smelter in May 1979, increasing the company's annual capacity by about 60,000 tons.

Jan 1, 1979

By D. T. Bergado

The uppermost subsoil profiles of the Bangkok plain can be divided into four layers, namely: weathered clay, soft clay, stiff clay, and dense sand layers. The soft Bangkok clay is a normally consolidated marine clay with built-up preconsolidation effects and overlain by a weathered crust. Up to the present, a large number of full-scale tests on excavations and pile foundations has been made by numerous investigators. Based on these results, the available data are reviewed and evaluated. The results show that for test excavations, the excess pore pressures were overpredicted by the existing theories. The vertical and lateral movements in the excavations can be predicted by the bilinear and non-linear finite elements using appropriate modulus values. Relationships among probability of failure, safety factor, and safety margin of the excavation were also obtained. In the case of pile foundations, good agreement between the measured and predicted ultimate pile capacities were obtained for long piles. The adhesion factors ranged from 0.4 to 1.0 while the average skin friction factor was found to be 0.33. The ultimate capacity of the pile was also predicted successfully by using the Dutch cone data. For lateral deflection of piles, Davisson and Gill's theory predicted well in the low deflection zone while Poulos' theory agreed well in the high deflection zone. From the probabilistic analysis of ultimate pile capacity, the probability of failure was related to the central factor of safety. The piles usually used in Bangkok area are mainly precast concrete piles

Jan 1, 2010

By M. E. Tyrrell

Research objectives were to determine the reasons for erratic behavior of semisilica horizontal zinc retorts in service; to investigate potential corrective measures including the possible utilization of more refractory materials in the retort body; and to delineate laboratory tests suitable for process control in the manufacture of retorts. Correlation of laboratory test results and data supplied by the cooperating smelters indicated that structural failures due to thermal shock and laminations in the retort body are largely responsible for the erratic behavior of horizontal zinc retorts in service. The most promising modifications made in the retort body and evaluated on a laboratory scale included finer grinding of the plastic clay fraction, substitution of mullite grog for calcined fire clay and grain alumina for silica, plus the use of an organic binder. Lamination-free extrusions having excellent thermal shock resistance were prepared from a mixture composed of 50 percent low-silica Missouri plastic clay through 100 mesh, 25 percent mullite grog through 6 mesh, and 25 percent alumina through 100 mesh. The mix was pugged under 28-inch vacuum with 1 percent ligno sulfonate binder in 12 percent tempering water. Laboratory tests suitable for process control in the manufacture of retorts are described.

Jan 1, 1969

By W. W. Weller

Heat capacity measurements of anhydrous cobalt sulfate (CoSO4), copper sulfate (CuSO4), nickel sulfate (NiSO4), and zinc sulfate (ZnSO4) were conducted over the temperature range 51° to 298° K. The results were used to evaluate the following entropies at 298.15° K (cal/deg mole): CoSO4, 28.1; CuSO4, 26.8; NiSO4, 24.8; and ZnSO4, 26.4. Entropies were combined with heats of formation to give free energies of formation.

Jan 1, 1965

By J. R. Alldredge

This Bureau of Mines report presents a computer code that has been developed for describing and testing the statistical distribution of general continuous data sets. The statistical distributions used include the normal, lognormal, exponential, chi square, gamma, and uniform. Histograms for observed and expected values are plotted for each distribution. An example using geologic data obtained from a study of the geometric properties of natural fractures in oil shale rock illustrates the use of the computer program, GDIST.

Jan 1, 1977

By J. Morkel

During research on mainly the weathering of kimberlite, it became evident that its mineralogical composition is an important factor in the complex process of physical and chemical disintegration. The mineralogy of tuffisitic kimberlite breccias from two localities, the Cullinan and Venetia mines, is compared with special reference to the occurrence of associated clay minerals. The clay mineral composition influences the engineering properties of these rock types. It is illustrated how the presence of swelling clay components can be confirmed by ethylene glycol treatment and chlorite minerals by heat treatment using X-ray diffraction. Smectites are present in both tuffisitic kimberlites, dominant at Venetia while chlorite is more frequent at Cullinan. More tuffisitic kimberlite breccias samples from venetia were also characterized. It was found that kimberlite disintegration is correlated with the presence and abundance of smectite.

Jan 1, 2006