Search Documents

By M. Jawed

Coking coal reserves in India are distributed geographically in Giridih, Raniganj, East Bokaro & Jharia Coalfields (J.C.F.). 97% of prime coking coal in JCF coming through underground mines is credited to Bord & Pillar mining systems inspite of the fact that it results in heavy mining losses. The cost of mining in B & P mines has been much higher due to various factors. In this paper, O.R. model has been discussed with case study for optimizing the cost of production in operational underground mines. Also, a computer algorithm has been discussed using a schematic flowchart, which provides the trend of mining-losses 'in different mining, systems with changing design parameters and finally selects, the optimum mining system for undeveloped seams based on economic appraisal criteria.

Jan 1, 1989

By D. T. Pritchard

"Introduction""No accounting system is very good, and all of them are infinitely variable*.”The purpose of this chapter is to discuss those facets of a typical accounting system which are most commonly encountered by operating managers in mineral processing plants. However, before concentrating in any detail on these it is important to understand the broad purposes and basic techniques of any accounting system in any major business.The three broad purposes of an Accounting System are:- Administering, controlling, and recording the flow of cash in and out of the business. Cash is, of course, converted into other assets (or stores of value) such as inventory, plant and equipment, etc. These assets also have to be administered, controlled and recorded.- Internal reporting to Management for information, for control, and for use in making business plans and decisions. - External reporting to stockholders, government, lenders and other outside parties.In this chapter we shall organize our discussion of accounting practice in mineral processing plants around these three purposes of accounting and focus in some detail on specific practices and techniques with which operating personnel will be routinely involved. This chapter is divided into the following: Accounting Basics; Administration, Control and Recording of Cash Flows; Internal Reporting; Planning and Budgeting; Cost Control; and External Reporting."

Jan 1, 1989

By Ava Walker

The first form of a surety bond was an honest handshake between two or more parties agreeing to a decision, and their personal guarantee of following through to completion. This has all changed. In 1895, the United States Treasury Department disclosed that $35 million worth of personal surety guarantees on file had become worthless. A law was then passed requiring all surety bonds, in favor of the United States, must be corporate surety bonds. Today, a surety bond is one of the nation's leading fi¬nancial instruments used to guarantee the completion of an obligation. One hundred-fifty years before cor¬porate surety bonds, outcrops near Richmond, VA, were being mined. These surface mines became under¬ground mines. Today, both are still being used to obtain a leading energy source, coal. Since that time, more than 5956 km2 (1.47 million acres) of coal mined lands have been reclaimed in the US (Coal News, August, 1987). More than 25,000 state and Federal mining permits cover¬ing 14,164 km2 (3.5 million acres) have been issued during the last 10 years. Coal production has exceeded 7.2 Gt (8 billion st). More than 5665 km2 (1.4 million acres) of mined land has been reclaimed by active coal mining opera¬tions and 267 km2 (66,000 acres) of abandoned mined lands have been re¬claimed by others. Reclamation bonds were freely writ¬ten in the 1970s. So why are they almost extinct today? Contract bond losses have been severe in the past several years, sureties reporting losses exceed¬ing 110%. But the same proof is not provided on coal reclamation bonds. A surety bond is generally required when one party has an agreement with another party, and that party wants a guarantee from a third party that a job will be completed according to the terms and conditions of a written contract. In the case of a reclamation bond, the surety company (surety) is the financial party. It extends the credit and a guarantee to the obligee (the State, Commonwealth, or Office of Surface Mining) that the principal (the coal operator/company) will complete the terms and conditions of the contract (the rules and regulations governing mining and reclamation). The Surety Association of America defines a surety bond as an agreement providing for monetary compensation should there be a failure to perform specified acts within a stated period. Webster's Dictionary defines surety in the following ways: "l: the state of being sure; 2a: a pledge or other formal engagement given for the fulfillment of an undertaking and; 3b: one who has become legally liable for the debt, de¬fault, or failure in duty of another." Banks never make accommodation loans. Either the loan is good or no loan is made. Surety companies feel the same way about surety bonds. In fact, the average person does not realize the dangers of becoming surety for another. How does a surety determine if a company is worthy of receiving surety credit? How is a coal account under¬written today for an obligation that may not be released for many years? When a surety company executes a reclama¬tion bond, it financially puts its name behind the coal company and its guaran¬tee that should the coal miner default on the obligation, the surety will fulfill the contract. How is the surety to determine if a coal company may still be in business five, 10, 20, or 40 years from today?

Jan 1, 1989

By I. G. L. Sinclair

The Selbaie deposit is located in northern Quebec. It is comprised of three distinct, but genetically related, Cu-Zn-Ag ore bodies which also contain economically significant amounts of Au. The deposits are Archean in age and volcanogenic in origin. At Selbaie, ore microscopy has been employed to aid in planning of ore beneficiation methods and to monitor the ongoing performance of the concentrator. Examples of both types of study are described. Early in the life of the mine, excessive amounts of Zn appearing were found to be appearing in the Cu concentrate. Microscopic examination of concentrates showed that this was being caused by the presence of coatings of supergene chalcocite on sphalerite grains. Fine coatings of supergene galena and chalcopyrite were also observed on some sphalerite grains. The presence of Ag and Au in the ores makes an important contribution to the revenue of the mine. The various modes of occurrence and mineralogical relationship of these two metals are described and discussed. Monitoring of the ongoing concentrating process at selbaie is done by qua-litative and quantitative examination of products collected at various points along the circuit. Causes of such problems as excessive loss of metals to the tailings or inefficient recovery of individual metals, can often be identified and possible solutions proposed.

Jan 1, 1989

The first form of a surety bond was an honest handshake between two or more parties, agreeing to a decision and their personal guarantee of following through to completion. This has all changed. In 1895, the United States Treasury Department disclosed that $35 million worth of personal surety guarantees on file had become worthless. At that time, a law was passed, requiring all surety bonds, in favor of the United States, must be corporate surety bonds. Today, a surety bond is one of the nation's leading financial instruments used to guarantee the completion of an obligation.

Jan 1, 1989

By D. V. Hughes, J. R. Nyberg

"Since 1985, a comprehensive automation system has been installed at the Outokumpu Oy Zinc Plant, Kokkola, Finland. In leaching and solution purification special sample handling equipment, on-line analyzers and instruments, and a computer-based control system with duplicated supervisory stations have been installed. The system has enabled closer control of the process and more efficient use of labor. Since its installation recovery of zinc has improved, and use of zinc dust, steam, and water have decreased. The system has performed reliably. It includes optimizing programs and process study tools, which facilitate improving process performance. An expert system has been built-up to prompt process personnel to take appropriate action on the basis of process data. In electrolysis a similar system, based on extensive monitoring of the process and of production of zinc cathodes, is used to maximize- current efficiency by maintaining optimum conditions in the process. It is planned that in the future the control systems will be integrated and extended to cover the roasting plant and effluent control.IntroductionThe Zinc PlantThe Zinc Plant of Outokumpu Oy Metallurgical Division at Kokkola, on the West Coast of Finland, has grown from a 90,000 t/a plant founded in 1969 to become, with its present capacity of 170,000 t/a, one of the world's ten largest zinc plants. Especially since the completion in 1988 of a thorough modernization programme, it is also among the world's most modern.The Kokkola plant takes its raw materials from Outokumpu's own mines, Vihanti and Pyhasalmi in Finland, and Tara in Ireland, and from outside sources. Concentrates are roasted in two Lurgi fluid-bed furnaces, and the calcine is leached and iron removed by the Conversion process. Following this copper, cobalt, and cadmium are removed, and zinc is refined by electrowinning. The leaching and purification, and the cell-house are automated under computer-based control, and anode and cathode handling in the cell-house are mechanized and fully automatic."

Jan 1, 1989

By Bob Snashall

"We could blow that damned fort out of existence if we could run a mine shaft under it!," claimed one Union soldier eyeing Bobby Lee's Petersburg defense line protecting Richmond and Jeff Davis. Puncture the line, take the hill behind, and the Confederate capital would celebrate Yankee jubilee, 1864. That was June. At 4:15 am, July 30, mine boss Henry Reese, sergeant, 48th Regiment, Pennsylvania Volunteers, gingerly entered the mine, dark and muddy. Something had gone wrong. The mine, set to go off at 3:30, hadn't exploded. It had to be checked. The main mine gallery, 1.5 m high x 1.4 m wide (5 x 4 ft) narrowing at the top to 0.6 m (2 ft), forced Reese into a tuck run. Some¬where up there in that 155 m (511 ft) stretch running 6 m (20 ft) under the rebel works, moisture may have doused the charge. Or maybe a fuse splice went awry. Or maybe there was live fire steaming like a locomo¬tive towards 3.6 t (4 st) of black powder. Perhaps now Reese wished this sprint was shorter. For the mine boasted a record break¬ing distance in military annals. Lieut. Col. Henry Pleasants Credit goes to Lieut. Col. Henry Pleas¬ants, commander of the 48th, who overheard the soldier's claim for what a mine could do. In peacetime, Pleasants had been a railroad engineer working on the Sand Patch Tunnel. He later switched to mining, working for the Philadelphia & Reading Coal & Iron Co. He even married the daughter of the editor of The Miners Journal. Grieving over his wife's early death, Pleasants plunged into the ven¬ture of war. This Union officer took the mine idea to the brass. Headquarters was less than enthu¬siastic. "The chief engineer of the Army and the rest of the regular Army wiseacres said it was not feasible," Pleasants wrote to his uncle. The pros scoffed, ticking off a list of horribles: No mine has ever gone that far, men will suffocate and be crushed, the rebs will countermine, the men will be trapped. Still, Pleasants eked out a signal to proceed. In the meantime, the miners of the 48th had commenced to dig anyway. It was like the 48th to proceed against the odds. The 48th Pennsylvania Volunteers The 48th had been recruited from Penn¬sylvania's Schuylkill County, anthracite coal mining country. The mines had been torn with strife over wages. Strikes and rioting were prevalent. Murder was not unknown. This "Buckshot" resistance centered in Pottsville, PA. It forced the governor to call in troops. Coal was in high demand to run the war machine. Pennsylvania operators worried that a military draft would stir up violence, closing the mines altogether and further shift¬ing business to emerging Illinois mines. Men lit out for the western gold fields in the tens of thousands. Secret societies bred in the mining camps invited draft agents to dance at the end of a rope. Jobs threatened by cheap, victorious South¬ern labor were one warning intended to get immigrant miners interested in the war. Operators gave miners time off to help de¬fend Philadelphia during Lee's thrust to Gettysburg. Even so, the draft spawned new violence and troop intercession. Soldiers were not welcome. The dust had barely settled when into this Pennsylvania "minefield" marched the 48th on a recruitment drive. The 48th had been in Lexington, KY on guard duty. When it came time for the regiment to pull out, the townspeople had prevailed upon authorities to extend the regiment's stay. Finally ordered to move out, the 48th was feted by a hanky-waving, tear-dropping send-off to the lyrical lament Auld Lang Syne. And Kentucky fancied itself to be rebel. Striding smartly into the Pennsylvania coalfields, the 48th attracted 400 recruits and marched off under regimental colors specially made by the proud citizens of none other than Pottsville, PA.

Jan 1, 1989

By T. Bieniawski

"INTRODUCTION The Congress theme ""Improvement of Mine Productivity and Overall Economics by Modern Technology"" is probably beat: addressed by the subtheme allocated to this Plenary Session. It is appropriate that .Theme 1 emphasizes the simple point that effective use of geotechnical information is the key to improving mine productivity. In essence, this means that: (1) geological and geomechanics, (rock mechanics) data must be collected in sufficient quantity and of high quality; (ii) data interpretation must be performed specifically for purposes of engineering design; (iii) innovative design approaches should be used to bring about Improvements in productivity and safety.While, each of these three aspects .may: seem obvious to any mining engineer it is a fact that the above sequence is seldom followed and as a result, mining engineering not infrequently lags, behind other branches of engineering when it comes to design creativity, efficiency and safety.. . After all, mining is still-one of the most hazardous occupations and we are gathered here to discuss, at the highest world professional forum, how to use more effectively the modern technology. This however, does not mean that mining engineers are less capable than other engineers or that their achievements are any lesser; far from it! Mining engineers are the cream of the engineering society on whose efforts depends the welfare of mankind. Moreover, they have produced minerals and coal evergrowing quantities against evergrowing difficulties. Yet, we must and can become even better because we are not making full use of the modern technology and rock mechanics knowledge already at our disposal, and. we are not being innovative enough to the full extent of .our capabilities."

Jan 1, 1989

By Raymond F. Mikesell

This paper evaluates the contributions of "third parties" to surplus capacity in the world metals industries in the 1980s. Special attention is given to the role of international development agencies, such as the World Bank, that have made project loans to state mining enterprises. The paper also reviews the contributions to surplus capacity of the International Monetary Fund and evaluates the large volume of credits from commercial banks to developing countries. Although the credits to Third World countries during the 1970s facilitated the expansion of mining capacity in those countries, no one source of financing can be held responsible for a significant portion of the expansion.

Jan 1, 1989

Between 1985-1986, the Bureau of Mines reviewed the mining history and minerals information for areas in and near the San Isabel National Forest to appraise the mineral resources present and determine the types of deposits, and their location in the Forest, that could be mined economically if sufficient demand and metal prices existed. The two major metallic deposit-types that are of national mineral resource significance within the Forest are stockwork- molybdenum (with tungsten and tin) and carbonate-replacement zinc-lead-silver deposits. Historically, small gold placers, gold-quartz veins, silver-quartz veins, skarn iron and copper deposits, volcanogenic copper-zinc-precious metal deposits, and base- and precious-metal veins have been mined. Barite, carbonate rocks, gypsum, other non-metallic deposits, and pegmatites, have also been mined. Sand and gravel, present in large volumes, occurs along and has been mined outside the Forest along the upper Arkansas River valley. Turquoise and gemstones are present in small amounts and are of interest to collectors and jewelers. Geologically, sediment-hosted uranium and copper are present in small occurrences but no resources have been identified. Geothermal resources are related to the Rio Grande rift which parallels the central part of the Forest. Four hot spring areas are present - two of these are within the Forest. Because of the low power requirements of the region, and the presence of other generating facilities, these geothermal resources have had only limited local use. Evaluation of mine models that may be found in the region show that base-metal deposits require a high precious-metal component to be economic. Although molybdenum can be produced at economically competitive prices, there is little demand for the product. Capital costs to start new molybdenum mines would be very high and it is not likely that new mines will be put into production in the near future.

Jan 1, 1989

By Jackson E

The general level of awareness amongst members of the professions that they are faced with an increasing number of claims for breaches of their professional duty was dramatically heightened by the decision of Rogers J. at first instance in Cambridge Credit Corporation v Hutcheson (1985) 3 ACLR when the auditors of the failed company were found liable for breach of contract and faced a damages award of $145 million - well in excess of their insurance cover. No comfort should be found in the fact that this decision was overturned on appeal, for that result rested on the issue of whether there had been a causal connection between the breach of contract which had occurred and the loss suffered rather than on the fundamental principle of auditors' liability.

Jan 1, 1989

Pictured on these pages are the six RMCMI Scholarship Award Winners for the 1988-89 year followed by a brief profile. All winners were present as guests of the Institute at the June convention in Durango, Colorado to receive recognition at the Welcome Session Monday, June 26, 1989. Each state vice president served as the host for the collegiate winner. In addition to receiving a plaque from the Scholarship Chairman, Keith McGinnis, each winner receives $500.00 tuition credit for the coming academic year. As this is a continuing award, the winners from the previous year will receive another $500.00 for tuition credit in their senior year if they have maintained good academic standing and have been recommended by their university. Criteria for these awards to be made in the spring annually is (1) That the award be made to a sophomore student and used as tuition during the junior year. (2) That the recipient be both a U.S. citizen and a resident of the state involved. (3) That the recipient have good academic standing, be pursuing a degree in a mining related field and have an expressed interest in Western coal as a possible career path. The scholarship program includes curricula other than those in the mining departments, but in the engineering disciplines, such as geology, mineral processing and metallurgy. Contributions to this worthy project are tax deductible to each individual RMCMI member or his firm. Through annual donations of $100.00 or more, the Patrons of the Institute fund the scholarship program and the various vice presidents contribute the travel expenses to convention for these outstanding young collegiates. Donations to this worthwhile program may be made payable to RMCMI Scholarship and mailed to the RMCMI Office, 2700 Youngfield Street, Suite 100, Lakewood, CO 80215. Profiles of the 1989 Scholarship Winners follow. [ ] David P. Pelletier University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona David is a Mining Engineering major and graduated from Santa Fe High School in 1981. He served in the Sixth Marine Regiment, Second Marine Division of the United States Marine Corps from December 1982 thru December 1985. He is a student member of SME-AIME and has held the offices of treasurer, vice president and president. He works volunteer shifts at the University of Arizona San Xavier Mining Laboratory [ ] Johnny F. Blizzard Colorado School of Mines Golden, Colorado A high school graduate of Longmont, Colorado, Johnny carries a 3.968/4.000 at Mines, majoring in Mining Engineering with a minor in Metallurgy. His name has appeared on the Academic Dean's list for the past two years. He received the Robert M. & George R. Harris Scholarship during this past year. He is a student member of SME-AIMMP and an executive council member of CSM's chapter of AIME. Summertimes, Johnny works as a miner for Edger Mine in Idaho Springs, CO on an experimental project for USBM.

Jan 1, 1989

By Bret Boster

Facilities at Amax Gold's Sleeper Mine process some 330 kt of high grade ore and 4100 kt of low grade ore annually to produce 6.8 t of gold and 7.8 t of silver. High grade ore is processed in a conventional milling facility employing gravity concentration, CIC and CIP unit operations for gold and silver recovery. Low grade ore is processed using heap leaching and carbon adsorption methods.. Presented are the evolution and descriptions of the Sleeper processing facilities and discussions of selected' operating results.

Jan 1, 1989

By Jennifer S. Riefenberg

The U.S. Bureau of Mines conducts basic and applied research related to predicting, eliminating, and/or controlling rock bursts in underground hard-rock mines and coal bumps in underground coal mines. An important element in this research is the development of a reliable and efficient microseismic source location technique. This report presents the results of a Bureau study to develop and evaluate a new algorithm to locate microseismic events based on the Simplex method, a powerful linear programming technique. The technique was tested on both field data and simulated data. Microseismic event source locations obtained with this new Simplex-based algorithm were shown to have less error than those locations obtained using a least squares method. It was concluded that the Simplex approach to source location of microseismic events can be used effectively in microseismic monitoring.

Jan 1, 1989

By Thomas J. Ferree

"IntroductionThe objective of this chapter is to provide important criteria relating to the operation and maintenance of spiral concentrators and Reichert cones, so that optimum performance can be achieved and maintained in a mill circuit. Little space will be devoted to the theory of the forces of separation or the technical details of the devices, as that in(ormation is available from other sources. The discussions in this chapter will be presented in a manner that should be interesting and useful to anyone who may be exposed to these methods of gravity separation. It is most important for the reader to understand that each application of the equipment should be considered on its own merit, as no two suites of minerals respond exactly alike in mineral processing circuits. The information herein should be useful as a guide toward increasing the metallurgical efficiency of the processes, irrespective of the type of minerals being concentrated.It is highly recommended that certain tools be made available to the personnel responsible for metallurgical performance of the spirals and cones; these include a set of standard type laboratory screens, a medium quality petrographic microscope, and a vanning plaque or gold pan. These devices, when used in conjunction with a basic understanding of the mill circuit, provide immediate knowledge on the characteristics of any sample in the mill circuit. The information gained by visual evaluation of sized fractions of products can solve many of the basic problems of mineral beneficiation, and at the same time increase the interest of the non-technical personnel associated with the plant operation. There are many problems associated with obtaining satisfactory performance from a mill operation. Many of the problems have to be solved using a technical approach. Some of the problems, however, can be solved with practical knowledge and common sense. It is hoped this chapter can provide a guide to both techniques."

Jan 1, 1989

Real economic growth for 1988 may fall short of the 3.3% projected by the Department of Commerce in August 1988 because the summer drought and intense heat in many areas curtailed output more severely than expected. The economy grew at an average annual rate of 3.0% for the first three quarters of the year, slowing in the second and third quarters. Export growth, which occurred even as the dollar edged up compared with other industrial country currencies, was an important factor in the expansion. Notable gains were posted in sales of machinery, computers, aircraft, chemicals, and telecommunications equipment. Imports increased, but not as much as exports, and the U.S. trade position was still much improved from that of 1987. Personal consumption expenditures grew slightly faster than the economy as a whole. Purchases of consumer durables showed notable strength in the first half of 1988, but slowed down in the third quarter. Despite the moderate rise in interest rates, business spending for new plant and equipment also rose and contributed to 1988 gross national product (GNP) growth. Both new business investment and export demand spurred orders for U.S.-made machine tools. Orders for machine tools for the first 8 months of 1988 were almost triple those in the corresponding period in 1987.

Jan 1, 1989

By T. W. Turk

In May 1984, Davy McKee Corporation was awarded a contract for engineering design, procurement assistance, project management and startup services for two gold recovery plants? in the People's, Republic of China (PRC). The basic design of these two projects was to be accomplished by a combined effort of the Chinese and Davy McKee Corporation (DMC). The, design goals were to provide a state-of-the art plant while maintaining Chinese standards and design practices whenever possible. Chinese-manufactured equipment was to be used as much as possible. This paper discusses the project organization and procedures developed to accomplish the design goals, the process selection and design, and the selection and procurement of equipment outside of the PRC. Design development for grinding, leaching and carbon adsorption, and gold recovery are discussed in detail. The major goal of process selection and design was to provide common criteria for both plants. Equipment .sizing and selection was identical for carbon-in-leach adsorption, gold recovery, acid washing, and carboo regeneration for both plants. Of special importance is the design of the wastewater treatment system. Due to the cl0se proximity of a major population area, slurry discharging from these mines must be treated to meet drinking water standards. The process development and design of this system is also discussed in detail.

Jan 1, 1989

By Gordon T. Austin

The combined production value of natural abrasives, which consist of tripoli, special silica stone, garnet, staurolite, and emery, increased in 1987. The increase was, in certain cases, because the materials were used in nonabrasive applications, such as the increased use of tripoli as a filler and special silica stone material as a special-purpose crushed stone. The increased use of garnet as a blasting media accounts for most of its growth. Production and sales of garnet were at a record-high level in 1987. [ ]

Jan 1, 1989

By Harold Kennedy

Take a good look at this issue of Minerals and Materials. This is the last issue of M&M, as it has been known within the U.S. Bureau of Mines, that you will receive. Fifteen years after it was created to help cope with a growing worldwide mineral shortage, M&M is ceasing publication. In its place will be a bright, new publication called Minerals Today. Like its venerable predecessor, Minerals Today will be a bimonthly magazine that reports on recent trends and issues in the minerals and materials industries. It will be the Bureau of Mines' most frequent periodical presenting an overview of the entire field of minerals and materials.

Jan 1, 1989

By John A. Cordes, Thomas F. Torries

INTRODUCTION Nonfuel mineral markets have always tended to be volatile due to the cyclical nature of demand and the difficulty of fine-tuning capacity and output levels. Experiences over the past two decades, however, have been especially perverse. This short volume attempts to provide insights into this era and some guidance for the future. The papers are linked together by their focus on issues of productive capacity. At the same time, they provide a useful description, explanation and evaluation of the industry's evolution and its implications for the near-term. The regnant pessimism of the 1980s was very much alive during the early months of 1987 when the theme of this symposium was formalized. Indices of real metal prices had only inched-up from all-time lows in 1986. The hemorrhage of corporate red-ink was still a powerful memory. Frustration with the apparent inability of closures and reduced capacity utilization to re-establish market balance was strong. To the more pessimistic, the industry appeared destined to a quarter century of persistent excess capacity and nonremunerative prices. The conditions to support this pessimism were readily apparent. Economic literature tells us that surplus capacity is a complex, usually unexpected and often long-lived phenomenon caused by the interaction of at least three factors. The first is a rising capital-intensity of production. The second is the presence of aggressive new entrants whose capacity additions are typically (1) trade- dedicated because local market absorption is low; (2) cost-competitive for natural or policy-support reasons; (3) heavily burdened by debt-repayment obligations; and (4) viewed as important sources of employment, regional development and foreign exchange. The third, and often decisive, factor is an unanticipated decline or stagnation in demand growth for the sector's output. The first two factors combine to increase competitive pressures and to raise the actual or perceived cost of idle capacity. Market rigidity reduces responsiveness to price signals and distorts the burden of adjustment. Demand atrophy exacerbates these pressures especially on unprotected producers in the higher quadrants of the global supply function. In the mid-1980s, evidence of the existence of all these factors were easy to cite. Culprits were often identified. Claims for protection, global sharing of adjustment burdens, and imposition of disincentives to new capacity regardless of inherent economic status were co-dominant themes with the buzz-words of "competitiveness" and "level playing fields." This, notwithstanding the suggestions of the same economic literature that excess capacity persists longest when interventionist remedies permit it to continue. Today, only eighteen months later, the mood is decidedly more buoyant and most analysts are cautiously optimistic about the next few years. Many informed analysts have concluded that the excess capacity of the recent past has disappeared. For the present, the marketplace seems to have restored a balance between supply and demand. That the adjustment took five or six years longer than anticipated attests to the dramatic structural changes which have characterized the industry. The implications of these changes for the future are unclear. Were the macroeconomic shocks, coupled with industry transitions, so extraordinary in magnitude and timing that experiences were unique? If so, the next years may hold more stable and cautious times for the industry. Alternatively, is the inherently volatile metals industry facing a future of cycles equally perverse in terms of amplitude and duration due to economic uncertainities and inflexible industry response capabilities?

Jan 1, 1989