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By Kot F. Unrug

When reading different studies discussing trends in coal mining, it appears that a substantial expansion of output by the year 2000 is predicted, even in the most pessimistic forecasts. Depletion of shallow, easy-to-mine deposits is only a matter of time, and the future average mining depth will increase. The proportion of slope to shaft mines operated during the next decades will change in favor of the shaft mines. Since an increasing amount of shafts in new nine developments seems to be inevitable, it appears appropriate to focus more attention on shaft design criteria. Some valuable papers have recently been published (1) that emphasize geotechnical aspects of shaft design. In the discussion that follows some other aspects of design criteria will be evaluated.

Jan 1, 1984

By J. Herhold, S. Plaum

The focus within the economical optimization of projects, which are conducted underground, shifts more and more towards the conduction of construction work underground. Underground operations can be defined in a wide range of various projects, from underground mining tasks to the construction of engineering structures. Within these projects the conduction of construction work cannot only be defined as absolutely necessary, but sometimes also as optimizing for underground processes (e. g. installation of workshops underground to support the mining processes). Even though the conduction of underground construction might cause positive outcomes concerning the productivity, it also tends to be challenging due to local (sub-surface) conditions and influences. To minimize the risk of failure and sudden events within in the conduction of construction work underground, the tool “work preparation” shall be used. Under the given constraints, such as local influences, expected construction work and set time frame, the conduction of the construction work will be planned in advance by consideration of the construction logistics as well as the selection of a fitted construction technique. PROBLEM DEFINITION Economic Challenges - Raw Material Extraction Enterprises in the construction, mining and raw material extraction industries are increasingly under the pressure to perform economically to sustain their position on the global market. Profitability, efficiency and productivity are the basic conditions to be an active participant on the global market as well as a business partner and contractor for mining and construction projects or projects related to the extraction of raw materials. The completion of large-scale as well as common construction projects above ground has been under the pressure to minimize costs and time whilst maximizing the potential outcome, in the meanings of quality and economic gain, for more than a decade now. Whereas the construction industry has to fight the competition on the market with efficient project outcomes, the mining industry has to find ways to perform efficiently to further conduct the extraction of decreasing raw material deposits. The ongoing exploitation of existing raw material deposits to satisfy the constantly increasing raw material demands world-wide, led to the predicament that economically mineable deposits have decreased dramatically. Even tough mineral deposits do still exist on a global level, near-surface deposits decrease rapidly. Therefore, the extraction of raw materials within mining operations will be relocated further away from the surface in greater depths. With the growing distance from the surface to the mineral deposit, the extraction costs will increase many times over. With that in mind, the extraction costs will increase whilst the economic efficiency will decrease. The extraction of certain deposits will no longer be profitable with the common approach. To further extract raw materials efficiently even in greater depth, companies have to change their practice in different ways. That leads to the fact, if the deposits are in the depths, where the extraction processes won´t be economically, other (support) processes have to be in order to guaranty an economical corporate process itself. This precept will divert the focus from the actual mining process to support processes, where potential for optimization still can be found, as shown in figure 1.

Jan 1, 2019

By Andrew Cho, Changsoo (Kevin) Moon, Richard Flanagan, Brian Larsen

"INTRODUCTION Project Background The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)/Port Authority of New York & New Jersey (PANYNJ), as part of their New York and New Jersey Harbor Deepening Project, will dredge this shipping channel to a depth of 16.5 m below mean low water (MLW). By deepening the channel, the new generation of larger, “post-panamax” container ships coming to U.S. waters as a result of the expansion of Panama Canal can be accommodated in local marine terminals, helping to retain the nearly 300,000 jobs and $12 billion in annual wages the PANYNJ provides to the region. The existing siphons are situated at a depth that could be compromised by the planned dredging of the channel (nycedc.com). The purpose of this project is to build a new 1.83 m diameter water main inside a 3.66m diameter tunnel replacing the two existing siphons in order to provide the necessary backup water supply to Staten Island across the Anchorage Channel within the Upper New York Bay from Brooklyn. The proposed tunnel is approximately 2.9 km long and at a depth of at least 26 m below MLW. The project is funded jointly by New York City’s Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) and PANYNJ and is managed by New York City Economic Development Corporation (NYCEDC). The contractor of the project is Tully/OHL JV, the designer is CDM/HMM JV, and the CM is LiRo/PB JV. History of New York City’s Soft Ground Tunneling The New York City area has a relatively long history of soft ground tunneling, commencing in the late 19th century. Construction of the first Hudson River tunnel crossings was begun (but not completed) in 1874 for the Hudson & Manhattan Railroad using compressed air supplying a shield. The work continued intermittently until the project finally opened for service in 1907. These 1.72km long tunnels (maximum depths of 29 m) are still in operation and now operated as the PATH Tunnels. They are approximately 5.5m diameter utilizing cast iron segments. The river bed consisted of primarily silt with shallow rock near the New York side. Air “leaks” occurred during the compressed air excavations resulting in some serious “blows” with water and soil entering the tunnel, including one incident with 20 deaths."

Jan 1, 2016

By Nikhil Dhawan, Shrey Agrawal

Feldspar, a low-alumina, and abundantly available aluminosilicate source, is explored in this study to extract aluminum and potassium values. The sample comprises lamellar layers of microcline and albite with quartz containing 17.4% Al2O3, 9.67% K2O, and 66.3% SiO2. Mechanical (milling) and thermal (alkali and acid baking) activation are investigated, followed by HCl leaching. The milling treatment up to 6 h is inefficient in phase dissociation and results in ~ 40% Al and K dissolution. The alkali thermal treatment yielded 80% Al and 71% K extraction. Direct precipitation of the dissolved Al and Si values yielded alumina purity of ~ 29%, and silica gelation separated SiO2 and improved alumina product (94% purity, 71% recovery). Acid baking yielded 98% pure alumina precipitate; however, Al and K extraction were limited to ~ 45% and 65%, respectively. The microwave-assisted alkali treatment was optimal with 800 W and 10 min processing conditions yielding 80% Al and 71% K recovery with 2.26 kWh/kg alumina of thermal energy consumption. The final product contains γ-alumina with a specific surface area of 87 m2/ g. Keywords Feldspar · Alumina · Potassium ·

May 18, 2022

By Snehamoy Chatterjee, Sanjay Kumar Palei, Smarak Das

Machine manufacturers’ recommendations on maintenance strategies of capital-intensive draglines are not always based on real data and therefore lead to losses from downtime. This paper proposes a preventive maintenance strategy for a dragline deployed in an opencast coal mine based on reliability-centered maintenance and failure-mode-effects analysis using real operational data. Reliability-centered maintenance replaced a cluster of critical failure components of the dragline while satisfying two specific conditions: (i) the components should be replaced at the earliest mean time to failure (MTTF) within the group and (ii) the time taken to replace all the parts should be equivalent to the maximum downtime within the group. Estimated threshold weightage factor identified twenty-six critical failure components for the preventive maintenance strategy, and clustering of components divided them into nine groups. In a group, the loss that is expected to occur by replacing some of the components before their failure, and the gain by reducing the overall maintenance downtime, has been explained through a cost-benefit analysis. The total net profit generated is calculated as US$200,178. This clustering activity also led to a reduction of annual downtime by 231 h, whose approximate market price as equivalent coal production costs $295,365.

May 28, 2020

By S. Pastor, S. Hahn

"As the concept of autonomous haulage systems (AHS) moves from proto-types to production-ready applications, the operating performance of the haul road will become ‘mission critical’ to the overall success of autonomy in mining. Deterioration in road performance will require remediation, human intervention and significant, albeit temporary, changes to operating procedures, to accommodate road maintenance. With autonomous trucks comes the opportunity to reduce road formation and operating width, and therefore generating potentially significantly reductions in stripping ratios and improvements to mine economics, but only if the design of the road, and it’s associated deterioration rate, is predictable and manageable, based both on the materials used to construct the road and the maintenance interventions to be carried out on the road. This paper presents the assessment of a digital photogrammetric approach to the characterization of a mine haul road surfacing, or wearing course material. Design and maintenance parameters for these roads are currently determined from physical particle size distribution (PSD) assessments of ‘in-road’ material. However, this approach does not accommodate the need, nor leverage the benefits from, AHS. The digital imaging approach is assessed in this paper, using two standard digital analysis software tools, together with in-service mine haul road wearing course samples and images which are assessed to determine the applicability and reliability of the approach to deliver a real-time assessment of haul road surfacing conditions and thus to identify the road maintenance interventions required to address deterioration. INTRODUCTION Enhancements in mine road design, construction and management for the past 20 or more years has largely been focused on short-term tactical needs. These improvements have not been matched by advances in the fundamental technologies that underpin mine road design and management, and although the quality of mine roads have probably increased, many of fundamental and longer-term issues have yet to be addressed. With AHS’s evolving from prototype to production applications, any decision to implement these systems in a mine requires a thorough evaluation of impacts, not only operational improvements, but the inter-connectivity of this autonomy technology to other organizational processes. In developing an understanding, the full interactions that may affect autonomous truck behaviour due to changes in various sub-systems or external environments, haul road conditions and operating performance is a key consideration. This is as true in autonomous as well as in conventional mine truck-based hauling systems where the mine haul road network is a critical and vital component of the production process."

Jan 1, 2015

Editor?s note: Each year, Mining Engineering features an industrial minerals review. Several people put in a fair amount of time in developing the material for this issue, all the while doing their own jobs. Thank you to the industrial minerals annual review editor, to the Industrial Minerals and Aggregates Division technical committee chair and vice-chairs, and to the authors of the individual commodity profiles. Jim Norman, member SME, of Tetra Tech, is the industrial minerals annual review editor. Rajesh Raitani, member SME, of Cytec Industries Inc., is chair of the Industrial Minerals and Aggregates Division?s Technical Committee. The technical Committee vice chairs include: ? Vishal Gupta, member SME, of FlSmidth, Agricultural Materials. ? Candace Trimble, member SME, of Oil- Dri Corporation of America, and Bradley Van Gosen, of the U.S. Geological Survey, ceramics and refractory materials. ? Stanley Krukowski, member SME, of the Oklahoma Geological Survey, chemical raw materials. ? Russell Winn, member SME, of R.E. James Gravel Co., chemical raw materials. ? Justin Zdunczyk, member SME, of Plum Creek, construction materials. ? Jerry Gauntt, member SME, of Golder Associates, fillers and pigments. ? Michael Cheshire, member SME, of Los Alamos National Laboratory, sorbents, filters and process aids. ? Rajesh Raitani, member SME, of Cytec, Industries Inc., specialty minerals. Their help makes possible this June industrial minerals issue. On behalf of ME readers, the editors thank them.

Jul 1, 2013

By V. Dentoni

The paper deals with the assessment of the visual impact generated by surface mining and quarrying. Previous research works proved the applicability of an indirect method based on the elaboration of digital images through which the extent of the visible altered area and the chromatic contrast with the surrounding environment is calculated. The resulting level of visual impact allows an objective comparison among different cases as far as the evaluation procedure is univocally defined. The article illustrates the application of the method to a number of selected quarries located within the Sardinian territory; different issues are discussed such as the choice of the viewpoints from which the pictures are taken, the influence of the distance from the quarry to the selected viewpoints, the light condition and the orientation of the quarry faces. Moreover, the visual impact level obtained from pictures taken at the same time with five digital cameras are compared in order to evaluate the contribution on the overall uncertainty.

Jan 1, 2008

By Joseph H. Herz

Recently, the President of the Portland Cement Association, Robert D. Maclean, gave the keynote address at the Rock Products Eighth International Cement Industry Seminar. He said, after listing the seven plagues our industry is suffering, "none of these items I have listed is a sales or marketing problem. Further, none is a problem that can be relegated to long-term study by public or private research agencies. They are here-and-now problems to be faced daily by producers, researchers, equipment manufacturers and consultants. THE DAY OF THE PRODUCTION MAN IS HERE." (1)

Jan 1, 1973

By S. K. Jena, S. Singh, B. Das, N. Dhawan, P. K. Misra, D. S. Rao

"Iron as an impurity in pyrophyllite ore affects pottery, ceramics and tile quality. We carried out the characterization of a pyrophyllite ore sample using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and wet chemical analysis. The study revealed the presence of 2.15% iron oxide (Fe2O3 ) along with silica and alumina as the major components, which constituted around 90% of the total sample. We carried out the removal of iron from the pyrophyllite using magnetic separation and acid leaching and found that wet high-intensity magnetic separation (WHIMS) could remove 28% of iron values while oxalic acid leaching could remove up to 99.3%. The leaching kinetics of iron removal and the effects of pulp density, acid concentration, leaching time and temperature were also investigated. The optimum conditions for leaching were found to be leaching time of 60 minutes, temperature of 90°C, pulp density of 5%, oxalic acid concentration of 0.3 M, and particle size below 100 microns. Iron dissolution from the pyrophyllite sample can be best described by the diffusion of ions through the product layer of constant-size spherical particles. The breakdown of the pyrophyllite structure was evident from the FTIR and TGA studies. The activation energy of the leaching process over the temperature range was calculated to be 43.47 kJ/mol. IntroductionPyrophyllite is a naturally occurring phyllosilicate mineral composed of aluminum silicate hydroxide [Al2Si4O10(OH)2] as the major component and often associated with other minerals such as kaolinite, mica, quartz, rutile and epidote. It occurs in fine-grained sericite schist that is quarried as pyrophyllite (Pandit et al., 2008). In India, pyrophyllite occurs mainly in Madhya Pradesh state, Uttar Pradesh state and the Keonjhar district of Odisha state (Harpavat, 1995). Pure pyrophyllite is a highly desirable material for various applications due to its unique properties. It exhibits high refractive behavior, low thermalelectrical conductivity, low expansion coefficient, low hot-load deformation, low bulk density and high corrosion resistance to molten metal and basic slag (Rieger, 1997). It is used in the ceramics, refractory, foundry, electrical-insulation, sanitary-ware, glassmaking, pesticide and rubber fields. Compared with clay, it has lower thermal conductivity and coefficient of expansion, making it more suitable for refractory applications (Harben, 2002; The Minerals Yearbook, 2011)."

Jan 1, 2015

By Igor Gonzales G.

The Southern Peru Copper Corp. (SPCC) recently built an integrated copper project consisting of dump- and heap-leaching operations at its mine complex in Peru. The pregnant leach solution (PLS) containing the solubilized copper from the leaching operations is processed in a new solvent extraction/electrowinning (SX/EW) facility to produce high-purity cathode copper. The dump leaching and SX/EW facilities are located near the Toquepala mine site. The crushing and heap-leaching operation is located at the Cuajone Mine. The pregnant leach solution from Toquepala and Cuajone is pumped 35 km (22 miles) to the SX/EW plant at Toquepala. The SX/EW plant consists of three trains of solvent extraction (SX), a tank farm area and an electrowinning (EW) facility. The solvent extraction plant has a total PLS flow capacity of 3,210 m3/hr (113,360 cu ft/hr). The electrowinning facility has an expected long-term production capacity of 97 t/d(107 stpd) or about 35 kt/a (38,500 stpy) of cathode copper. However, present production exceeds the expected long-term by about 20%.

Jan 1, 1996

By M. Adnan Göksel

Pyrite cinder is generated by roasting pyrite for sulfur dioxide production. It contains up to 62% iron, but also may contain other hazardous or toxic materials such as Zn, Pb, As, T1, Cd, Cu, Sn and S. Furthermore, the physical characteristics are not properly suited for conventional sintering. As a result pyrite cinder is considered to be unsuitable for iron and steelmaking or for outside storage because of its potential for causing environmental problems. In recent years industrialized nations have put increasing pressure on the manufacturers to either use such waste products or properly dispose of them. In this study, solutions to both the iron recovery and disposal problem were attempted by pelletizing the pyrite fines with internal carbon. The pellets, after hydrothermal hardening, were reduced and melted in a furnace for hot metal production. Hot metal of usuable quality was produced and the hazardous materials were either collected with the fumes or in the slag.

Jan 1, 1984

"Above ground, elevated belt conveyors that span more than 200 m (656 ft) between support points can cross valleys, rivers, forests and buildings with a minimal footprint. The cable bridge conveyor (CBC) is a new type of suspension bridge based belt conveyor system that has long spans between support points. It combines a typical belt conveyor and an improved simple suspension bridge to form a conveyor bridge. The improved simple suspension bridge places a widened bridge deck directly on suspended cables, without the need for high truss towers. The benefits include reduced cost and increase aerodynamic stability compared to conventional suspension bridges. The CBC’s compatibility with current belt conveyors allows versatility in application.A belt conveyor is a ubiquitous material handling system. Conveyors can be placed directly on ground or elevated above ground by support structures. Considerations of cost, design, environment, civil work, safety and process requirements are all factors in choosing the ground-based or elevated conveyors (Zhang, 2014). The ground-based conveyor has the lowest structural cost when the conveyor is placed on an existing road. Maintenance access is easy and straightforward. Compared to the groundbased conveyor, the elevated conveyor can cross existing buildings and structures, give passage to traffic beneath the conveyor, has a smaller footprint and requires less civil work to pass mountainous areas. The drawback of the elevated conveyor is higher structural cost, which can be compared with savings in civil work and other benefits. Conventional elevated conveyors are supported by rigid truss-type structures, with a typical span of 15 to 25 m (50 to 82 ft) between concrete support bents or steel trestles. Triangular truss, using steel pipes instead of hot rolled steel sections, is more efficient. The typical span of a triangular truss-supported conveyor is around 30 to 40 m (100 to 130 ft), while the weight is about 10 percent less than conventional box truss with a shorter span (Jennings, 2013).Long-span elevated structures based on suspension bridge is another step forward in increasing the distance between support bents, reaching 100 to 400 m (330 to 1,312 ft) and beyond. The wide distance between the support points of an elevated conveyor offers unique benefits. The conveyor can cross rivers, valleys, highways, forests and other obstacles with minimal footprint and reduced civil work. The versatility from long-span conveyors makes bulk material transportation over previously impossible terrains now a feasible option."

Jan 1, 2014

By O. M. Arafat, J. A. Finch

Since its development, the functional performance equation for ball milling (McIvor, 1988) has facilitated a new understanding of industrial circuit cause and effect relationships, leading to significant strides in operational performance. Success stories of this approach to plant circuit performance improvement are now too numerous to list. Finch and McIvor (circa 1986) also discovered that the functional performance mill grinding rate at the size of interest was the same cumulative grinding rate that is calculated from mill feed and discharge size distributions using a first-order rate equation. By calculating these cumulative grinding rates for all screen sizes, a complete ball mill model is generated (as used by Finch and Ramirez, 1981). Others in industry, Hinde and Kalala (2009), for example, have noted the same. Lacking the complexity needed to maintain their interest, most researchers have ignored this model, broadly opting instead for Epstein’s (1948) characterization of grinding as a chemical reaction, combining selection rate and breakage size distribution functions. The much simpler ball mill model has previously been incorporated into a proprietary circuit modeling program (McIvor, 2005) and used for plant improvement work (for example, see McIvor and Finch, 2007, and McIvor, 2014). Now, by combining this business-friendly ball mill model with optimization criteria from functional performance analysis, a circuit modeling system (including the needed supplementary steps to assure successful plant implementation of circuit design changes) is at the disposal of every plant metallurgist, grinding equipment/ material provider and circuit designer.

Jan 11, 2017

By David L. Kuck

Siderophyle platinum-group metals and sane gold are a thousand times more abundant in metal and chondritic meteorites than in terrestrial or lunar rocks. Type I and II carbonaceous chondrites contain granules of the high boiling point metals W, Re, Mo, Ir and Os. Metal meteorites and the metal fractions of other chondrites contain siderophyle Pt, Pd, Ru, Rh, Os, Ir and Au. Spectra of sunlight reflected from asteroids, when compared with those of meteorites and specific minerals, provide a rough classification and guide to sources of precious platin-group metals.

Jan 1, 1982

By M. Mathiba

High CO2 fluxes associated with reclaimed coal mine spoils pose an environmental hazard where such sites are used for building. CO2 concentrations in excess of 25% have been reported in homes constructed on or down gradient of such spoils. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of a mitigation trench used at one mine site on CO2 fluxes across the trench using chamber?based trace gas measurement. LI8100 automated CO2 flux system was used to measure CO2 fluxes from 32 sample points located across a deep mitigation trench on June 8 and 9. The maximum recorded fluxes were 7.29 and 8.18 µmol/m2/s, with averages of 4.15 and 5.50 µmol/m2/s, up and down-dip respectively. These preliminary results show CO2 flux is higher up-hill than down-hill at 95% significant level. This work shows that flux measurement can be used to investigate CO2 migration on reclaimed mine land. Further work is necessary to allow geostatistical modeling of the spatial variability of CO2 fluxes over reclaimed coal mine spoils. Knowledge gained would assist mining practitioners and regulators in reclamation planning for envisaged post-mining land uses.

Jan 1, 2010

By A. Khoshnevisan

Molybdenum resources around the world are mainly associated with porphyry copper ores. Molybdenite (MoS2) is the main Mo mineral that has rhenium in its crystal lattice. This paper investigates the recovery of rhenium and molybdenum from a molybdenite concentrate using a hydrometallurgical treatment method. The molybdenite concentrate is leached with nitric acid and subjected to solvent extraction to recover and separate rhenium and molybdenum from the leached liquor. The effects of pH and the chemicals? concentration on extraction characteristics of Mo and Re are investigated to define the best condition for selective extraction of these metals. The tested leached liquor contained of 8.2 g/L Mo, 1.5 g/L Fe, 0.5 g/L Cu and 60 ppm Re. A good extraction efficiency, up to 94%, was achieved for Re from the leached liquor, where the extraction of other metals, such as Fe and Cu, was negligible. In particular, at very low pH, rhenium is extracted selectively from solution, while the extraction of molybdenum is less than 10%. After removing rhenium, molybdenum was extracted with LIX984N. The selectivity of molybdenum extraction over other metals in solution was significant. Nearly 94% of molybdenum can be extracted from the solution at a pH value of -0.12, without any interference from other metal ions such as copper and iron.

By A. Moharana

A massive slide at Bingham Canyon wiped out a side of the pit and covered the main haul road in and out of the pit. All pre-slide mine designs and schedules were no longer valid. New designs and schedules needed to be developed quickly to provide management with information regarding the immediate post-slide production potential and the time needed to ramp back up to full production. At the time of the slide, an effort was already underway to convert Bingham?s in-house Medium Term Scheduling Process to MineSight®?s Schedule Optimizer (MSSO). One of the main reasons for doing this was to reduce the time needed to produce Medium Term Schedules at Bingham, which involves a complex shovel-based scheduling approach with shovel productivities based on shovel type and the types of mining cuts to which the shovel is assigned over each planning period. The objective of the schedule was to maximize shovel usage, satisfy mill feed requirements of four SAG mills with variable milling rates, and have flexibility in setting truck constraints. This paper will describe how the new MSSO-based mine scheduling process met the challenge of producing new schedules for Bingham in a minimal amount of time.

Feb 23, 2014

By Lewis V. Wade

This paper summarizes the results of the rock mechanics monitoring program performed as part of Old Ben Coal Company's longwall coal mining demonstration project conducted in cooperation with the United States Bureau of Mines. The work described herein included installation of instruments, collection of data and data analysis performed during mining of the first longwall panel in Mine No. 24. The rock mechanics monitoring program included both surface and underground instrumentation and was designed to achieve the following purposes: 1 -To provide the capability to observe unusual situations during mining so that remedial measures could be instituted quickly 2 -To formulate design guidelines for future longwall mining efforts; 3 -To evaluate surface subsidence, and its character, rate and potential effects on cultural features, and to develop criteria to assist in predicting subsidence for other mines having similar roof conditions. Six previous attempts with longwall methods in Old Ben Coal Company's Hine 21 had been unsuccessful due to roof control problems. A description of these attempts is given by Moroni (1973). In preparation for the present longwall operation a study was performed to review existing data on the previous unsuccessful attempts, to establish coa1-and floor-strata bearing capacities in Mines Nos. 21 and

Jan 1, 1977

By A. Moergeli, Philip Sander, John J. Reilly

"Estimating and managing the costs of complex infrastructure projects – in the planning/design and construction phases, for both owners and contractors – has been a challenge for decades. The more complex and technologically advanced the project, the greater the uncertainty, including potential risks that are important to owners and contractors, such as:• Cost risks to owners – meeting budget and schedule, maintaining public credibility.• Cost risks to contractors – profit, consequences of loss, impacts to reputation/future work.This concern has been addressed in various ways by the underground construction industry for some time (Reilly, 2001). In particular, while significant advances have been made in cost estimating for the planning and design phases (Reilly et al., 2004), that are important to agencies and political decision-makers, it is not apparent that these advances have been widely adopted for construction cost estimates. The reasons for this may relate to lowbid considerations – any method that tends to increase the contractor’s cost estimate, by including risk or likely costs, could lead to an erosion of the contractor’s competitive position – if others are not similarly required to include such costs.Different cost estimating methods produce different levels of information. Specifically, there is a large difference in the character and depth of information if a deterministic (quantities times price plus a contingency) and risk-based cost methods are used. It is this difference in character and depth of information that is the reason that risk-based cost estimating has potential value for owners and contractors. Figure 1 presents hypothetical cost results from deterministic and risk-based methods and illustrates some of these differences.In Fig. 1, the results for deterministic and risk-based cost estimates are given related to the potential profit or loss for a typical project. As is evident in this example, there is significant potential for costs to be realized that are higher than the proposal/bid value estimated using a deterministic approach, with a 15 percent probability of a loss. There is a 30 percent probability that the project will have a reduced profit. There is a 55 percent probability that the project will return a good profit. Using a risk-based approach, it is possible to better recognize this potential outcome in the bid phase and, as a consequence, develop a strategy to:"

Apr 1, 2016