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The 107th Annual General Meeting of The South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy was held at The Country Club, Johannesburg, Napier Road, Auckland Park on Wednesday, 11 August, 2004. Welcome The President extended a special welcome to the guests and representatives of our sister institutes and other associations, also to recipients of awards, senior members of industry, Honorary Life Fellows, past-presidents, our members and other guests, among them the following: Ralph Bagirathi, Executive Member, African Mining Association Rudi Rudolph, President, Association of Mine Managers of South Africa Andrew Whibley, President, Association of Mine Resident Engineers of South Africa Dr Con Fauconnier, President, Chamber of Mines of South Africa Nxolisi Diliza, Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Mines of South Africa

Jan 1, 2004

By AIME AIME

THE following paragraphs comprise such information as the Secretary has been able to obtain concerning the members and associates whose deaths have been reported. Further particulars or corrections of errors, and biographical data concerning deceased members or associates not already noticed in this way, are solicited. [SECRETARY'S NOTE.-All of these notices have been revised, and some of then have been more or less completely prepared, by me. To those which contain more particularly the expression of my personal feeling, my initials have been appended. The labor of preparing or editing these paragraphs has been in many respects both welcome and interesting, on the one hand, and sorrowful, on the other. In going through the list, I have repeatedly felt like one who, visiting the Morgue, suddenly comes upon the pale face of a dear friend, of whose death lie was not aware ; and, even when this fact was known to me, the work of recording it has brought upon me a flood of recollections, almost preventing the discharge of that official duty. The list for 1907 seems to me to he peculiarly sad, comprising, as it does, so many sudden deaths by violence or accident, so many veterans, removed too soon, and so many young men whose early departure impoverishes the future, even more than the present. Probably, this feeling on my part is largely due to the circumstance that the increased membership of the Institute necessarily in¬volves an increase of the annual death-list. Probably, also, it is connected with the circumstance that during the first years of the history of the Institute-say from 1871 to 1880-it was joined by men of all ages, and that the death-rate is consequently now above the average which would result from the normal annual addition, principally of young men. And finally, I must admit that, as one of the original members of the Institute, and practically connected with it for nearly thirty-seven years as Acting President, President or Secretary, I am peculiarly impressed and depressed by the successive deaths of those who were my associates in the years of its early struggles and triumphs. I do not wish to inflict upon my younger colleagues the melancholy reflections of an increasingly lonesome old man. In fact, my prevailing mood concerning the Institute is not at all melancholy, but triumphant and hopeful. If I may be permitted to preach at all, I would enforce, from the texts given below, a moral which many of them declare so forcibly as to preclude the necessity of expository enforcements-namely, the duty of every one of us, old or young, to give to his brethren, as he goes along, and without waiting for some future occasion for a comprehensive and monumental contribution to technical literature, the results of his observation and experience. When I look at this list of names, my personal sorrow over many of them is drowned in my professional reflection as to each and all-How much has died with

Jan 1, 1908

By Richard H. De Voto

The McDonald gold project and two satellite gold deposits near Lincoln, MT were discovered in the early 1990s. They contain at least 307.9 t (9.9 million oz) of gold and 933 t (30 million oz)of silver. The McDonald gold deposit alone contains 223.9 t (7.2 million oz) of gold reserves that can be open-pit mined and processed by cyanide heap leaching at a projected cash operating cost of $6.10/g ($190/oz). The deposit is predominantly oxidized with no chance of acid production. It can be mined, operated and reclaimed with minimal permanent environmental disturbance other than the creation of an open-pit filled with a fresh-water lake that would support trout.

Jan 1, 2000

By Jasper L. Stuckey

PYROPHYLLITE, first identified as soapstone,' later as agalmatolite,2 and finally as pyrophyl-lite, has been known to occur in North Carolina for more than 130 years and has been produced intermittently in commercial amounts for the past 100 years. Pyrophyllite mining, however, has become a major industry in North Carolina only during the past 25 years. North Carolina and California are the chief producing states. Current annual production averages 125,000 tons, of which slightly more than 90 pct comes from North Carolina. Distribution and Geologic Setting: All known pyrophyllite deposits in North Carolina are associated with rocks of the Carolina Slate Belt,' which is composed of a vast series of metamorphosed volcanic and sedimentary materials, occurring as two zones extending in a northeast-southwest direction across the state. The larger of these zones, lying in the central Piedmont region, varies from 8 to 50 miles wide. The smaller zone lies along the eastern edge of the Piedmont region and is partly covered by coastal plain sediments. The rocks in both zones consist of a great volcanic-sedimentary series, composed of air-laid and water-laid tuffs and breccias, lava flows, and slates. On the basis of composition, they may be classed into three groups: 1) tuffs, breccias, and lava flows of acid or rhyolitic composition; 2) tuffs, breccias, and lava flows of a basic or andesitic composition; and 3) water-laid slates composed of fine grained materials derived chiefly from the acid tuffs and breccias and

Jan 1, 1959

Mineragraphy is a coined term to signify the field of microscopic investigation of ore minerals. The term is not euphonius and is sometimes regarded as superfluous because the subject is no more than an enlargement of the scope of petrology. In the past the practical field of petrology has been largely limited by the instruments which were designed for the study of rocks and' the microscopical properties of the transparent minerals. The addition of mineragraphy has been brought about by the use of the reflecting microscope and a totally different technique.The use of the petrological microscope, as it has been employed in the training oi geologists and mining engineers for nearly half a century, has been justified many times, not only in its application to general geological problems, but also in the more restricted field of the exploration and examination of ore deposits. It provides information of the gangue minerals and rocks associated with an ore body which is of great value in some mining fields. In cases where ore deposits occur selectively in certain favourable types of rock, the recognition and delineation of these rock types is a useful guide in prospecting. The Boulder Belt at Kalgoorlie forms one of the most striking examples in Australia where important significance is attached to different rock types, and the petrological microscope is essential to their elucidation.

Jan 1, 1932

By W. M. Williams

The Canadian steel industry is now in many ways a mature one, having achieved many technical successes during its hundred-year history. It is interesting to look back over this period, to learn something of the histories of the different producers and of the people and forces that shaped their development. The following article provides a thumbnail sketch of the Canadian steel industry as it exists today. It is intended for the general reader, not for the specialist who will want to consult the several books and theses written on the development of the industry during the last hundred years. The famous Les Forges du Saint-Maurice, an important iron producer for a century and a half, provides a natural historical starting point for a look at the four major players - Dosco, Algoma, Stelco and Dofasco - who have provided most of the hundreds of millions of tonnes of steel, in every form from horseshoes to tinplate, needed in the twentieth century. The smaller companies which have sprung up in the last 20 or 30 years are dealt with briefly - but only because their history is so recent. Not so long ago the mini-mill, based on scrap rather than on the blast furnace, was thought to be specially suited to the economies of the smaller developing countries of the Third World. However, recent history has made it evident that the small plant, specializing in a few basic products (e.g. reinforcing bar) or taking advantage of special circumstances, can successfully compete with the large blast furnace/primary steel producers.

Jan 1, 1999

In presenting this paper the author has in view a twofold purpose. In the first place, it is intended to set forth for the benefit of practical mining men some account of the principles underlying the design of tungsten carbide rock bits in the hope that a knowledge of these principles will assist in the successful application of the bits to mine and quarry drilling. Secondly, by evoking discussion, and even controversy, it is hoped that manufacturers and users of these rock bits will be encouraged to contribute to the general knowledge of a subject which to date has been rather lacking in published literature. The author well appreciates that many of the conclusions drawn in this paper are highly controversial, but if the only result is to call forth contradictory testimony from other workers in this field, at least one of his purposes will have been achieved.An attempt will first be made to set forth and examine those characteristics which go to make up an efficient rock bit, and the main factors affecting these characteristics will be discussed. In a paper of this general nature, consideration of any particular aspect must necessarily be rather brief, and there is little opportunity for detailed presentation of test procedures and data. Thus, it has been found advisable' to confine discussion of some minor points to a simple statement of fact. However, an attempt has been made to support all major conclusions by reference...

Jan 1, 1950

By John W. Fredland

Many accidents occur in the mining industry as a result of the instability of material during handling and processing operations. Accidents due to dump point instability at stockpiles, and at spoil or waste piles, for example, occur with alarming frequency. Miners must be trained to be better aware of these hazards. Information on safe working procedures at stockpiles and surge piles is provided. Mine operators must review their training and operating procedures regularly to ensure that hazardous conditions are avoided.

Jan 1, 1993

By Frederic P. Dewey

The Bureau of the Mint of the United States Treasury maintains 13 ofEces for the purchase of gold-bullion, and this paper describes an investigation to establish the reasonable differences in the assay-results at the various institutions which may be commercially allowable in the settlements between them. Beginning with the comparative assay of proof-gold at the Philadelphia mint and the Utrecht mint, which shows 0.00002 as the closest agreement now possible, nine tables of comparative results, taken from the regular work of the service, are given..These tables begin with very fine gold, produced in an electrolytic refinery, showing close agreement in the assay-results, and follow through decreasing gold fineness and increasing amounts and complexity of base metals to very impure and complex bars produced at cyanide-mills, some of which give widely-varying results. Next is given a series of results on samples, prepared and sent out to various laboratories in the service, to test the influence of different metals and various combinations upon the agreement of the assay-results ; 11 samples were sent out and each one was assayed from 44 to 71 times, making a total of 623 assays. To these ire added 107 assays of identical samples of coin-gold. On a previous occasion,' I have endeavored to show the degree of accuracy that may be expected in the ordinary everyday analysis of various materials, and on another occasion,2

Jan 1, 1910

By Bunting S. Crocker

Pebble grinding was used at Lake Shore Mines in 1949. A full description of experimental evidence and test plant results was published in 1952 1 and further operating details in 1954.2 In more recent years the term autogenous grinding has been coined and is now frequently seen in the technical literature. Autogenous crushing and/or grinding covers any grinding mill in which the larger of ore are made to grind the fine pieces; the crushing and grinding may be either dry or wet. This discussion deals only with wet autogenous grinding, and only in the fine grinding part of the circuit, i.e., from 6 mesh to 92 pct -325 mesh. The term pebble milling could apply to fine autogenous grinding in which the pebbles are made from the ore itself, or it could also refer to grinding with pebbles, such as flint pebbles, from a source outside the mine.

Jan 5, 1959

By Benjamin Smith Lyman

PAGE I. ANCIENT HISTORY,........... 57 Accepted Fables ; Babylonian Mapping ; First Surveying. II. COMPASS,.............59 Chinese Invention; Marco Polo; First European Compasses ; Early Knowledge of Variation ; Plotting with the Compass ; Hanging-Com pass ; Supposed Gravitational Error ; Merit of the Compass. 111. Telescope,............63 Origin (Roger Bacon, Porta, Digges, Lippershey, Galileo) ; Improvements (Micrometer and Cross-Hairs, Rittenhouse's First Telescope, Platinum Cross-Wires, Telescopic Sights, Reflecting Telescope, Achromatic Lens, Kellner Lens in Erecting Telescope, Inverting Telescope). IV. Theodolite,.............81 Origin ; Derivation of the Name. V. TranBit,.............86 First Surveying Transit; Edmund Draper. VI. Instrument-Parts,..........89 Ramsdenl a Dividing Engine ; Fineness of Graduation ; Conical Gradua tions ; Full Vertical Circle ; Leveling-Screws ; Shifting Tripod-Heads ; Hoffman-Harden Tripod-Head ; Heller & Brightly's Improvements. VII. OTHER INSTRUMENTS AND APPLIANCES,......100 Sunflower; Plummet-Lamp; Chains and Tapes. VIII. SCOTT'S TACHYMETER,.........104 IX. Nomenclature and Classification,.......105 Names; Grouping. Surveyors are much indebted to Mr. Scott for so vigorously attacking the subject of the origin and history of mine-surveging instruments, the compass, the telescope, the transit and other apparatus. He is not afraid of the dark, nor yet foolishly bashful in broad daylight. He does not recoil from the obscurities of the earliest times and the most difficult historical points; and, with commendable public spirit, he makes his own invention known to his fellow-workers, and challenges their criticism. He has, moreover, elicited the praiseworthy emula-

Jan 1, 1902

By J. R. Campbell

THE need for standardizing methods of arriving at definite conclusions regarding the cleanability of a given coal, and for measuring the performance of coal-cleaning equipment, is constantly increasing. Earlier notes by the author on this subject are amplified in this paper, because he believes that better preparation of bituminous coal is a partial solution of the coal operators' troubles. WASHABILITY STUDIES The term "washability" of coal was coined when washing was the universal method of separating coal from its impurities by utilizing their difference in specific gravity. This and analogous terms are still used in their broad sense although pneumatic or air separation is now used to clean coal. These terms are so used in this paper. Too much time or money, can hardly be spent on "feed surveys" to get a "picture" of the coal that is to be cleaned. There have been too many "rule of thumb" methods used. Screen analyses and "sink-and-float" tests on the raw coal enable the coal operator and washery man to predict within reasonable limits the results that may be expected from any efficient cleaning apparatus.

Jan 1, 1928

By Thornton L. Neathery

Vertical magnetic surveys have been made over about 3, 150 miles of the crystalline area of east-central Alabama. A contour map (100-gamma interval) showing regional magnetic anomalies has been prepared (scale 1:250,000) from data points located at quarter-mile intervals on all public roads. Small one- and two-station anomalies were eliminated, leaving only areally extensive anomaly features associated with regional geology. The regional gradient was "filtered" from the basic data and the resulting magnetic configuration compared to the regional geology. Regional lines of vertical magnetic intensity trend northeast and follow the structural framework of the area. Correlations can be made between a large number of geologic and magnetic features. The strongest regional anomalies are associated with the Goat Rock, Bartletts Ferry, Towaliga, and Brevard fault structures. The Inner Piedmont area is characterized by a broad regional high. The magnetic values of the northern Alabama Piedmont grades gently northwestward, disrupted occasionally by elongate highs and lows associated with amphibolites or granites. Scattered throughout the Piedmont are anomalous areas of high magnetic intensity; some are related to magnetic-bearing rocks, and some Indicate possible mineralization. Most of the anomalies have not been evaluated,

Jan 1, 1972

THE solid nonmetallic inclusions present to some extent in all commercial steels have been variously designated. In early references they were usually called slag inclusions, and this terminology is still retained to some extent. On the premise that all nonmetallic matter produced in a metallurgical process is slag, this can be justified. We have come to think of slag, however, in a more restricted sense, and calling these particles slag inclusions is further objectionable because it fosters the erroneous concept that they are actually incorporated portions of furnace slag. Rarely is this true. The term sonims (coined from solid nonmetallic impurities) was proposed many years ago but never came into common use. In general, the term non-metallic inclusions seems to be satisfactory and adequate. NATURE AND CONS1lTUTION OF NONMETALLIC INCLUSIONS From the standpoint of origin, inclusions fall naturally into two classes: (1) those occurring as a result of reactions taking place in the body of molten or solidifying metal and (2) those resulting from mechanical incorporation of refractories or other materials with which molten steel comes in contact. The former are by far the more numerous and have been called indigenous, natural, or native inclusions. The latter are by their very nature sporadic in occurrence and have been called exogenous, accidental, adventitious, or foreign inclusions. They are often referred to as the "slag-stringer" type, though here also the material is not likely to be furnace slag. Substances Found in Inclusions. Nonmetallic inclusions are composed principally of oxides and sulfides but carbides and nitrides sometimes play an important role. In the case of indigenous inclusions the reactions by which these particles are precipitated from molten or solidifying steel may be caused by: (1) oxidation such as may occur during refining or during tapping and teeming, (2) deoxidation by added alloys, (3) change

Jan 1, 1964

By M. Foguenne, A. van Lierde, P. Henry

Leaching experiments were carried out on a spent catalyst sample with a honeycomb structure, containing 47.5% Ti, 5.8% Mo, 2.7% Si, 2 035 ppm As, 52 ppm Pb and 8.8 ppm Hg. More than 93% of the Mo and As was removed by direct alkaline leaching after grinding to 80% -36 micrometres. The residue contained 0.3% Mo and 60 ppm As. To obtain a TiO2 matrix with 30 ppm As, acid leaching at controlled pH with 90 kg/t Al scrap was followed by oxidising alkaline leaching. Treatment of the direct alkaline leach solution or of the mixed solutions from the two-stage process involved two successive operations: purification by neutralisation with Al(OH)3 addition to raise the Al concentration to 4 g/l, and ion exchange on Amberlite IRA 94 S resin. Whatever the type of solution treated, elution with 200 g/l NH4OH solution gave an eluate of very high purity containing 164 g/l Mo, less than 70 mg/l V and less than 2 mg/l As

Jun 19, 1905

By Karl J. C. Harries

"12.1. NO DEPRECIATION/GAAPAll calculations and computations relating to the Royalty shall be carried out in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles consistently applied to the extent that such principles are not inconsistent with the provisions of this Schedule and the agreement attached hereto, it being specifically agreed that nothing herein contained shall permit, or be construed to permit, the Operator to deduct any amount for depletion, depreciation, amortization or any deduction that represents a non-cash outlay.Comment: In cases like net profit royalties where recoupment of prior expenditures is permitted, care should be taken to avoid any implication that depreciation may also be taken. It is only logical and equitable that Property Owners should not be permitted an apparent ability to “double dip” with respect to deductions. A provision like this example should accomplish the task. It will be noted that the example specifically contemplates that the negotiated arrangements will prevail over any requirements of GAAP. Accordingly, if the parties agree to an unusual formula for recoupment, it will not be set aside to accommodate GAAP requirements. Under GAAP, revenues and expenditures are accounted for on an accrual basis. In addition, it specifically prohibits the taking of non-cash deductions, which is in keeping with the concept of recoupment.Although in some ways the example states the obvious and could be considered redundant, its presence, especially in provisions contemplating recoupment, makes it clear to the financial people that there may well be some variations from normal practices dictated by GAAP, while at the same time confirming the availability of GAAP to fill any voids.The accounting profession often makes the caveat that application of GAAP is an “art”, not a “science”. GAAP do not provide a cure-all and can create problems that will have to be addressed. For example, GAAP contemplate that asset costs are to be reduced by investment tax credits, which can cause a problem for a payor with more than one mine."

Jan 1, 2003

By John D. VandeKraats

Yielding rock bolt support systems have been developed to accommodate ground movement in shifting ground such as in coal operations; in creeping ground such as salt, trona, and potash; and in swelling ground associated with some clays. These systems, designed to remain intact despite ground movement, should enhance mine safety and help contain costs in areas where rebolting of rigid non-yielding systems is typically required. Four such systems were tested in straight tensile pulls in the laboratory. They include the Slip Nut System from Dywidag Systems International USA, Inc., Ischebeck's bolt mounted Titan Load Indicator, Rocky Mountain Bolt Company's Yielding Cable Bolt, and a rock bolt installed variation of the yielding steel post developed by RE/SPEC Inc. The first two systems are currently marketed products and the latter two are prototype systems. Each system responds to load and displacement by yielding in a unique manner. All are designed to yield at predetermined loads. A description of each system and its yield function is provided. Each system was tested over its prescribed yield range in a test machine. At least five tests were performed on each system. Each system yielded and continued to provide support according to its design. Each shows promise for ground control use in shifting or creeping rock. This work helps to illustrate the comparative differences in performance between these specialized systems and the applications where they may be most useful.

Jan 1, 1996

By S. H. Ash

THE BARRIER-PILLAR SYSTEM in the Lackawanna Basin consists of 93 barrier pillars between Archbald and Taylor, Pa. These pillars affect 48 mines, have a total length of 87 miles, and confine 21 underground pools, which contain more than 10 billion gallons of water. From an investigation of size, position, and condition of the barrier pillars, it is apparent that those concerned are uncertain, not only as to the method by which the sizes of the barrier pillars were determined but also as to the stability of those that may be expected to act as dams. Where a barrier pillar must act as a dam, its failure may result in loss of life, the mine, or both; it would be far better had it not existed and thereby given a false sense of security.

Jan 1, 1952

By C. van der Poel, R. L. Chuoke P. van Meurs

When an initially planar interface between two im-ttitcihle liquids is displaced at constant rate, U, nor-mat to the front, instability will occur for all rates greater than a critical rate. U, given by provided the Fourier decomposition of the spatial pertmrbcrtiott or deformation of the moving displacetment front contains modes with wavelengths. A, greater than a critical wavelength, given by tit there expressions, p, p and k, with the subscripts I and 2 distinguishing the two 1iquids under consideration, are density, viscosity and effective pemeability coefficients respectively; g is the absolute value of the acceleration due to gravity; and cos (zz') is the direction cosit7e between the vertical carlesian coordinate z' (positive upward) and the z coordinate norma1 to the initially plane macroscopic interface taken positive in the direction from Liquid I to Liquid 2. U is the average volumetric velocity (injected volume of liquid pet. unit time per unit of area normal to Z) and is positive for Liquid I displacing Liquid 2, negative for the reversc displacement and r2 is an effective inter-fucial tension (for displacements between parrallel plates, t0= s the ordinary bulk interfacial tension). further, there is a wavelength of maximum instability given by For natural perturbations, this wavelength will preclotninate and characterize the form of the instability as a quasi-sinusoidal deformation, i.e., viscous fitzgers of peak-to-peak separatiotr, A,,. Comparison of experitient with theory rei'eals tltat these considerations are recsonably valid for displacements in hoth parallel plate chantzels and nnconsoli-clutt'd glass ptnvder packs. These results are. tij particular interest for interpretation of data from laboratory experiments with regard to fielil applica/iotz.s. It is quite possible for A,, although st7zall relative to the large lateral dimension of the reservoir, to rxceed the greatr.st lateral extent of the lahoratory sample or model. If it does, frontal displace- ment occurs in the laboratory experiments, and oil INTRODUCTION Thc puposes of this paper are to present theoretical and experimental evidence for occurrence of macroscopic instabilities in displacement of one viscous fluid by another immiscible with it through a uniform porous medium and to compare available experimental data with some predictions of a theory of instability developed by the first author. The instabilities are referred to as macroscopic in the sense that spatially quasi-sinusoidal, growing fingers of the displacing liquid are formed, the width and peak-to-peak separation (wavelength) of which is large relative to a characteristic length of the particular permeable medium such as grain size. Visual models of two kinds have been used to obtain observations: displacement of oil by water-glycerine solutions through the flow channel formed by closely spaced parallel plates and displacement of oil by water with and without initial interstitial water through unconsolidated glass powder packs, employing the technique of matching indices of refraction. In all cases we have observed macroscopic instabilities or fingers under conditions predicted by the theory to be favorable for their occurrence. The phenomenon discussed here is not the production of streamers due to gross inhomogeneities such as permeability stratification of the porous medium. It is our object to show, on the contrary, that a quantitative prediction of finger spacing is possible in a porous medium known to be macroscopically homogeneous and isotropic throughout. The importance of the phenomenon in its influence on the configuration of oil and water with respect to oil production behavior was noted earlier by Engel-berts and Klinkenberg' who coined the term "viscous fingering". THEORY Necessary and Sufficient Conditions ior Instability anc Initial Kinematics There are several levels of increasing complexity in the theoretical description of instabiIity of fluid displacements in permeable media. Of these, the simplest description, ;tdapted to low permeability systems, is selected for presentation.' More inclusivc tlescriptions are reserved for separate publication.

By C. Richard Tinsley

INTRODUCTION The economic analysis (Chapter 3), the engineering studies (Chapter 10), the credit structure (and the consequential funding sources) - Chapter 11, and the overall feasibility structure for any venture are all directed to determining one major decision element: How much and how certain is the reward for taking these risks? Risk assessment is a surprisingly weak area of analysis and is usually addressed in a checklist fashion. It is much preferable to deal within a risk system so that the inevitable tradeoffs among risks are correctly made. DEFINITION The first step toward risk definition must be to ascertain all of the risks to which a project or a company is exposed; otherwise one will remain ignorant of the possibility of a financially crippling loss until it occurs. (Carter and Crockford, 1974). However, simply stating what "risk" is can lead to debate. For example, risk could be (adapted from Vaughan, 1982): -the chance of a loss - uncertainty of loss -possibility of loss - uncertainty -dispersion of actual from expected results - probability of an outcome different from the one expected - possibility of an occurrence of an undesirable contingency -a condition in which a possibility of a loss exists. For the minerals industry financier, the last definition is probably the most appropriate. However, from a mineral company's point of view the definition might well include the possibility of not achieving the expected financial return. RISK CLASSIFICATION Risk identification will be readily agreed as the all-important first step. There are five major "branches" of risk classification. These are: -Statistical -Modellers -Checklist -Project Financing -Insurance The Statistical set discovered probability theory and any risk discussion soon deteriorates into a mathematical jungle (Megill, 1977; Hartman, 1976; Reutlinger, 1970; and Pouliquen, 1970).Their use of terminology tells its own story: coin toss (binomial distribution), gamblers' ruin, delphi (oracle) techniques, monte-carlo simulations, random walks, etcetera. These techniques inadequately represent the judgements necessary in an increasingly complicated and interrelated world. The risk Modellers have turned to the computer to handle these inter-relationships but soon find barriers because of "simultaneity". Certainly the computer has its uses to conduct various analyses (marketed as "sensitivity" analyses) but very often one finds that this involves changing one or two variables at a time, all other things being equal. Unfortunately, in a modern and complex world all other things do not remain equal. The statisticians will, no doubt, jump to their own defence by citing this

Jan 1, 1985