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By A. Ross Rornmel

ABILITY to speak effectively is one of man's most longed for and coveted abilities. It is the ability to stand on one's feet, transfer knowledge and thoughts to others, to reach an objective professionally or otherwise by leading groups through a channel of planned thought. Each day group speaking plays an important part in making or marring success, and the engineering profession often provides this opportunity and requirement. An ability to speak effectively develops courage, poise, confidence, and prestige for the speaker. The technical man cannot be reluctant to face an audience. He is often called upon to do this in presence of employees, supervisors, and other groups. His ability to speak effectively is as much a requirement as the fundamentals of his profession. The three fundamentals of effective speaking are: (1) Enthusiasm and Confidence. These are joined because of their close relation. (2) Preparation. This includes knowledge of the subject. (3) Presentation. By this is meant the features of delivery.

Jan 1, 1946

By Frank T. Sisco

DURING the past year the iron and steel industry of the world as a whole operated on a satisfactory basis. No discoveries nor new processes of outstanding importance were announced either here or abroad, although rumors of such were persistent. In general, the efforts of operating and research men in the iron and steel industry seemed to be confined to improving quality and reducing cost, not a new aim, for the same efforts have been noted in nearly all of the annual reviews of the industry for at least fifty years. Most published papers on blast furnace or steel-making practice were of minor importance, at least when judged by the criterion of radical change in process or product. If the number of reports in the technical journals, or articles in the trade press, is used as a basis for comparison, continuous-mill sheet is still the most important single product of the industry; papers were published detailing the results of the investigation of various phases of the

Jan 1, 1938

By M. J. Pool, with Appendix by Larry Kaufman, R. W. Krenzer

Thermodynmic properties of the Cu-Mn system have been deterrrzined in the temperature range 973" to 1273°K by measuring the vapor pressure of manganese in equilibrium with alloys of compositions varying from 0.13 to 0.91 rnole fraction manganese using the Knudsen effusion technique. Activities of manganese calculated from the measured vapor pressures show large positive deviations. Calculated heats and entropies of mixing are positive with a maximum occurring at approximately 0. 7 mole fraction manganese. ThE investigation of thermodynamic properties of binary systems involving transition metals is of considerable interest at the present time. The incomplete subvalency electron levels of transition metals lead to unusual behavior in some alloys, and considerable information can be obtained by determining the thermodynamic characteristics of these systems and relating the thermodynamic behavior to observed physical properties. The Cu-Mn system, shown in Fig. 1,' provides an example of an alloy system in which the determination of the equilibrium phase diagram and various physical properties has received considerable attention, but very little work has been done on measurement of the thermodynamic properties. Elemental copper and manganese have comparable electronegatives, atomic sizes, and cohesive energies, but differ in crystal structure. They form a continuous series of solid solutions only at high temperatures and the structure varies in a continuous manner from fcc at the copper-rich end to fct at the manganese-rich end.' The purpose of this investigation was to measure the vapor pressure of manganese over a series of Cu-Mn alloys and from these values determine the thermodynamic properties of the binary system. Vapor pressure measurements were made in the temperature range 973" to 1273"K, remaining within the solid-solution region for each alloy studied. EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE The relative thermodynamic properties of solid Cu-Mn alloys were determined from vapor pressure measurements by means of the Knudsen effusion tech- nique. Several discussions of the theory can be found in the literature. In the case of copper and manganese, it is assumed that manganese is the only component subliming, so the vapor pressure of manganese over the various alloys can be determined directly by measuring the weight loss of the effusion cell. This is a valid assumption since the vapor pressure of manganese is about four orders of magnitude higher than the vapor pressure of copper in the temperature region of interest. The vapor pressure of manganese over the alloys at any given temperature is then related to the weight loss of the effusion cell per unit area per unit time. An upper limit of 1.5 x 10"s has been measured for the ratio of polyatomic to monoatomic molecules for manganese vapor in equilibrium with solid manganese at 1180°K, so it was assumed that manganese vapor is monoatomic. The effusion cells, fabricated from high-purity alumina, are 26 mm high, 18 mm OD, and have a wall thickness of 1 mm. Three different sized holes of 2.03, 2.54, and 3.18 mm diam were drilled in the lids from the inside face to minimize chipping, and the lids were then slip-cast onto the cells to provide a gas-tight seal. Alumina was selected for this particular application both because of its resistance to thermal shock and reaction with manganese vapor. In the ideal case, the orifice of the effusion cell should have a knife edge so that effusion through the orifice

Jan 1, 1970

By William B. Plank

NEVER before have so many men chosen the mineral technology field for their college training. In the college year 1936-'37, 7190 such students were enrolled in the 53 schools of the United States. My last study of the mineral technology schools of the United States and Canada was made for the year -1934-'35, and the current study, as the previous one was made for the A.I.M.E. under the auspices of the Division of Mineral Industry Education. Altogether, four studies of enrollment have been made. The first three were for successive college years beginning with 1932-'33. This present one covers a two-year period, for the purpose of these studies may he served satisfactorily if they are made biannually. The data on the schools were collected in the same way as for former studies, 'namely, by questionnaire, dated in this case Nov. 18, 1936. The figures reported are therefore comparable with those of former cars.

Jan 1, 1937

By E. J. Whittenberger

OVER the past two decades, the Cr-Ni stainless steels, popularly termed 18-8 steels, have been used in ever increasing amounts in the aircraft, automotive, chemical, transportation, and building industries.' The contribution of nickel to these steels is associated with its strong austenite forming tendencies which assure good hot and cold forming characteristics, and with its beneficial influence upon corrosion resistance, especially in oxidizing acids. The adjustment of the chromium and nickel contents has been used advantageously in controlling the rollability and the response of the mechanical properties of these steels to cold reduction. With the advent of the jet age and the government stockpiling of nickel, considerable emphasis has been placed upon the development of satisfactory low nickel or nickel-free substitute austenitic stainless steels, especially for nonmilitary applications.2 Fer-ritic 17 pct Cr (AISI Type 430) stainless steel has been effectively substituted for the austenitic grades in applications with mildly corrosive exposure. However, the limited formability and ferromagnetic behavior of this grade do not permit its satisfactory use for many applications. To achieve better formability in a nenmagnetic steel and conserve nickel, a number of low nickel substitute austenitic grades of stainless steel have been developed in recent years. In most of these steels, manganese and nitrogen have been substituted for a portion of the nickel content, for example, 17 pct Cr-4 pct Ni-6 pct Mn (AISI Type 201), 18 pct Cr-5 pct Ni-8 pct Mn (AISI Type 202), and 16 pct Cr-1 pct Ni-17 pct Mn, all of which contain approximately 0.15 pct N.1 The precipitation of ferrite when large ingots of these Cr-Ni-Mn-N steels are heated to temperatures high enough for conversion to slabs on conventional universal slabbing mills has seriously affected the hot workability of these steels. This has been especially true in the case of the 16 pct Cr-1 pct Ni-17 pct Mn (sometimes referred to as 15 pct Cr-1 pct Ni-15 pct Mn) composition." Because it is possible that little, if any, nickel will be available for nonmilitary stainless steel applications in the event of a national emergency, a need has existed for a nickel-free austenitic stainless steel containing hot and cold forming characteristics similar to 18-8 steels and corrosion resistance at least comparable to the 17 pct Cr ferritic steel. The aforementioned deleterious effect of ferrite upon the hot working characteristics of the 16 pct Cr-1 pct Ni-17 pct Mn, steel indicates the importance of establishing the austenite-austenite plus ferrite phase boundaries as the first step in the development of nickel-free or low nickel substitute steels. This paper presents the data collected in an elevated temperature constitutional study of the Cr-Ni-Mn-N system at the South Works of the United States Steel Corp. Experimental Procedure The 300 compositions used in the investigation were melted in a 26 Ib induction furnace and cast in 3 14 in. diam by 18 in tall hot-tcpped ingot mo1ds.

Jan 1, 1958

By William Gilman

IN the past five years, and without much fanfare, Turkey has emerged as a significant figure in the world mining picture. This has been accomplished by a five-year plan now in its last year. A second five-year plan is already under way, ahead of schedule. It will concentrate even more than the first in developing Turkish mines in order to increase present exports of coal, chrome ore, and copper, and to develop new mineral exports as well. To be fully understand the republicic?s mining program should be considered as something more than merely tapping rich resources in the East along the Aegean Sea, in the North among the mountains descending to the Black Sea, and in the West at the foot of the Taurus Mountains. It should also be viewed in the light of a strong nationalist policy with many aspects of state socialism. Turkey declares frankly that all mineral re- sources belong to the nation and all exploitation should be by the state for the twin purpose of modernizing the state and securing foreign exchange for the state by exports. Accordingly, the principal mines are state-operated and a few lesser enterprises, although not state-owned, have at least been put in the hands of Turkish capital.

Jan 1, 1938

By Stanford O. Grodd

The Sanford Lake district encompasses an area covering 24 square miles in the central Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. Discovery of the titaniferous magnetite deposits dates back to 1826. Several attempts to exploit the ores for iron prior to 1942 proved uneconomical because of difficulties with the associated titanium, lack of transportation facilities, and the isolated location. Since 1942, the National Lead Company has produced ilmenite concentrates for the titanium pigment industry, and a magnetite by-product used in the steel and refractory industries. Rocks of the area are Precambrian in age and of igneous origin. The area has a history of erosion, deformation, and metamorphism, subsidence, and finally uplift and glaciation. The resulting topography is extremely rough with drainage patterns controlled by a combination of fault patterns and glacial modifications. The district is within the large anorthosite massif making up the central high peak area of the Adirondacks. All of the various lowsilica rock types associated with the massif are found within the boundaries of the district. These consist of both the Marcy and Whiteface types of anorthosite and of gabbroic anorthosite, gabbro, and different grades of titaniferous magnetite ores. All of the rocks contain the same minerals and differ only in their percentages of these consitituents. Gabbro, and ore associated with it, demonstrate flow structure as both have foliation and lineation. Anorthosite and its associated ores are massive and show very little primary structure. Minor pegmatites and diabase dikes provide evidence of remobilization in selected areas and of late intrusion as well. Faulting is prevalent and follows a regional pattern of major faults trending northeastsouthwest and of minor faults at nearly right angles to them. There are four mineralized areas where an economic grade of ore has been found. Three of these have both gabbroic-type ore and anorthositic-type ore. The fourth has only gabbroic ore. Ores are graded according to their TiO, content, and these range from 9.5 per cent to over 30.0 per cent TiO,. Ore bodies of both types are related to gabbro and conform to the configuration of the gabbro bodies within the anorthosite. At least three distinct theories of ore genesis have been expounded by different investigators. Others propose some variations of one or more of these. Although complete agreement probably never will be reached, it is certain that no one process of ore emplacement can explain the complicated picture as seen today. Further understanding of the ores and their origin will require detailed mapping, sampling, and mineralogical studies of the entire district, and then it may never be understood without qualification.

Jan 1, 1968

By E. H. Hamilton

THE furnace on which the following investigation was based had dimensions 48 by 160 in., and was in continuous operation during the three days of the test. The average charge consisted of PER CENT. LB. PER HOUR Bed ore?14.5?2,980 Roast from Dwight-Lloyds?44.5?9,160 Siliceous ore?3.5?720 Iron flux?2.1?430 Battery plates?0.5?103 Lime rock?23.9?4,925 Briquettes?4.0?825 Scrap iron?2.1?430 M. P. slag?4.2?865 L. P.speiss?0.7?142 Total 100.0 THE furnace on which the following investigation was based had dimensions 48 by 160 in., and was in continuous operation during the three days of the test. The average charge consisted of PER CENT. LB. PER HOUR Bed ore?14.5?2,980 Roast from Dwight-Lloyds?44.5?9,160 Siliceous ore?3.5?720 Iron flux?2.1?430 Battery plates?0.5?103 Lime rock?23.9?4,925 Briquettes?4.0?825 Scrap iron?2.1?430 M. P. slag?4.2?865 L. P.speiss?0.7?142 Total?100.0?20,580

Jan 1, 1924

By William B. Plank

AGAIN the records show an unprecedented enrollment of students in the mineral technology schools of the United States and Canada. In the current year, 1938-'39, 9619 students were resident in the 53 schools of the United States arid 1014 in the six schools of Canada. These data are from my fifth study of the mineral technology schools of the United States and Canada. the last previous study having been made for the year 1936-'37. The undertaking as previously was made under the auspices of the Mineral Industry Education Division of the A. I. M. E. The data or, the various schools were collected in the same way as for former studies.

Jan 1, 1939

By T. A. Rickard

The dictionary defines 'jargon' as "barbarous or debased language". This description does not suffice. Quiller-Couch has said, it is "a kind of writing which, from a superficial likeness, commonly passes for prose in these days, and by lazy folk is commonly written for prose, yet actually is not prose at all ". The two main vices of jargon, he says, are "that it uses circumlocution rather than short straight speech", like the Babu who reported his mother's death by saying: "Regret to inform you, the hand that rocked the cradle has kicked the bucket ". Its other chief' vice is that "it habitually chooses vague woolly abstract nouns rather than concrete ones", like the newspaper statement; "He was conveyed to his place of residence in an intoxicated condition", instead of saying, "He was carried home drunk ". Jargon is "an infirmity of speech", it is not journalese, but akin to it. "Like respect- ability in Chicago, jargo4 stalks unchecked in our midst" and renders much technical writing ridiculous. It deals in periphrasis instead of going straight to the point, it loves the abstract rather than the concrete, it dabbles in words of sound rather than of meaning. Avoid it, despise it., if you purpose earnestly to write well. "III literature as in life he makes himself felt who not only calls 4 spade a spade but has the pluck to double spades and re-double." * Jargon is rampant in technical publications. Catalogues and other advertisements are conspicuous offenders, but with these the critic is not concerned, except in so far as such 'write-

Jan 1, 1931

By C. S. Yust, Lida K. Barrett

The change in shape of the void in a sirzterir~g copper mass has been investigated as a juntction of' density. A serial sectioning' technique was used to eoaltrate the irregular shape of the void at two levels qf density. A measure of the void size and configuration, the proximity number, is defined and used to describe the progress of void removal. The process of. void removal deduced front the observations of this study contrasts with current sintering models in that it takes into account the irregularity of structure of a sintering mass and demonstrates that isolated Porosity does not occur first as spherical pores, but as large, definitely nonspherical sections of the void void volume. The process of sintering, about which there is much practical and theoretical knowledge, has evaded a direct and thorough analysis despite the intensity with which it has been studied for 60 years or so. This is due, of course, to the complex structure of a sintering mass and the inability to observe directly the development of a fully dense solid from the initial particulate arrangement. Extensive theoretical analyses have been based on the adoption of one or another of several model systems, that is, by visualization and analysis of some sort of regular assembly or arrangement of geometric "particles" approximating the conditions of a sintering mass. It seems appropriate at this time to try to examine experimentally in some detail the extent to which a sintering mass of irregular particles dlffers from these models. Many models deal with neck growth and the initial stage of sintering and follow the direction established by ~ucz~nski' in 1949 for the sintering of spheres to flat plates. Recently Johnson and cutler2 have adapted these models to sintering of powder masses. coble3 has presented a mathematical model for sintering that applies to the middle and final stages of the process. These papers, without exception, assume a regular geometry, generally spheres in contact in a regular array. Rhines~ and coworkers, however, are studying the sintering process by applying a model based on the topological concept of genus which permits them to consider an irregular structure. whites has described the various models with the exception of that of Rhines et al., and the assumptions on which they are based and their shortcomings. The present paper examines the geometric changes that occur in the powder mass during sintering by examination of the void. The method is to analyze a series of partially sintered structures and to propose from this analysis the sequence of events which occur in the removal of the void space as a sintering mass progresses from a collection of individual particles to a solid body. The irregular nature of the stacking of particles and of the particles themselves will be taken into account. The significant points derived from this study are: first, accurate reconstructions of the irregular void shapes are presented; second, it is clearly established that closed porosity occurs first as widespread volumes of interconnected porosity, definitely nonspherical in shape; and third, a new factor, the proximity number, is defined, which serves in this paper as a tool for describing the void shape changes observed, and which will be used in a later paper as part of the basis of a mathematical model for sintering. While the specific material studied is copper, the observations are thought to be relatively general as indicated by comparison of the results with partially sintered structures in other materials presented in the literature, both metallic and nonmetallic. EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE Four series of specimens representing progressive stages of the sintering process were prepared by sintering high-purity copper powder for various time periods. A relatively large particle size was used so that the void-solid interface could be readily distinguished at low magnification. In three series of specimens a loose stacking of particles was obtained by pouring powder into an alumina mold and lightly tapping the mold. The green density of such compacts was approximately 40 pct of theoretical density. Two of these three series utilized irregularly shaped particles in the size range -230 +325 mesh, one series sintered in vacuum and one in hydrogen at 950°C. The third series of loosely stacked particles consisted of spherical particles in the size range -270 +325 mesh, sintered in hydrogen at 950°C. A fourth series was prepared from compacted irregular particles sintered in hydrogen at 950°C. The specimens for this series were formed by lightly pressing the irregularly shaped particles in a steel die; the green density of the pressed pellets was approximately 60 pct. The irregularly shaped particles used in this study are shown in Fig. 1. The density of these particles, measured by a toluene picnometer technique, is 98.2 pct of theoretical density. Each particle is highly convoluted, and in some instances appears in cross section to contain internal porosity. The density measurement, however, indicates that completely enclosed porosity is very small so that the individual particles have a highly irregular surface but are essentially fully dense copper. Therefore, most of the void space that appears in two dimensions to be isolated within the particle is actually at the particle surface and connected to the external void in the dimension not included in the plane of the cross section. The void space that appears as void surrounded by the par -ticle or within folds in the particle w~ll be r~fc\r?

Jan 1, 1968

By Stanley W. Ivosevic

The South-Central Osa Peninsula produced around 30,000 kg (100,000 troy oz) of gold since prehistoric times. Gold freed by erosion from quartz lodes in the Mesozoic Nicoya ophiolite complex was reconcentrated through three generations of Quaternary sedimentary deposits. Resultant gold placers grade upward from 1 g/m3 (0.03 troy oz/m3) and are of moderate size.

Jan 1, 1980

By G. A. Beiswenger

The application of the law of supply and demand to the sale of crude oil is generally conceded, but the motives underlying the buyer's (refiner's) demands are not always obvious to the seller (producer). In some cases this obscurity has led to the conclusion that the refiner may be unnecessarily particular when he selects one crude and rejects another. This preference, however, is very largely the reflection of the refiner's product demands and the quality of the stocks obtainable from the selected crude. The purpose of this paper is to point out critical characteristics of the major classes of refined products and to show how crudes vary in their suitability for such products. With relatively few exceptions, available processing methods and addition agents make it theoretically possible to produce any type of refined product from any crude source, although it may not be economi-cally sound to do so. The widespread application of thermal cracking for converting higher boiling stocks into gasoline is well known. More recently cracking and refining in the presence of catalysts9 have been developed, as well as various processes for polymerizing lighter hydro-carbons into gasolines having desirable characteristics.6 For several years, selective solvents have been applied commercially to refining inferior quality kerosene, Diesel fuel and lubricating oil distillates .3 Improved methods for refining lubricating oils from crude residua,4 formerly suitable only for fuel, are now in use and a number of special solvent processes are available for dewaxing lubricating oils to low pour point.5 These improved refining methods have been developed not only to meet the demand for improved product quality but also to enable the refiner to obtain quality products from crude sources that would not yield such products by the older refining methods. In many cases, the utilization of these modern refining tools necessi-tates an appreciable expenditure for equipment as well as added manufac-turing costs, and their application therefore must be justified economically. Despite the availability of such tools, the added processing costs involved and yields obtainable may render their application entirely impractical. To illustrate this point, inspections of typical cuts from various crudes

Jan 1, 1940

By A. B. Parsons

DOWN in Washington an army of individuals constituting the government of a so-called "'democratic" nation is trying to manage the conduct, in its rnultifold phases, of the greatest war in history for the country that is potentially, at least, the strongest in the world and on which, consequently, the major responsibility rests. The enterprise is one of unprecedented magnitude and complexity. That individuals and groups have made and are making serious blunders, both as to the establishment and execution of policy, is to be expected.

Jan 1, 1942

By A. C. Rubel

WHAT does management expect of W and from an engineer? First and foremost, it expects that he should become, and therefore should fit himself in every way to be, a part of management so that he may assume as much and as many of the responsibilities of management as his ability and the opportunities of the job permit. Let me make clear at the start that the profession of pure, technical engineering offers but limited opportunities at the top levels because of the inherent organization of engineering work. The line of succession to top jobs may be likened to a cone with a broad base and an extremely sharp point. Consider any oil company, large or small, or any operating function of that company, and you will find few top engineering jobs in the organization. This is true by the nature of the work handled. There will be a few district engineers depending on the spread of operations, a chief petroleum and production engineer, perhaps a few research engineers, possibly some technical executive assistants, and that is usually all. The road to these jobs is a long one and the competition is tough. The larger the organization the greater the opportunity, but always the ratio of engineers to top engineering jobs is only a small one.

Jan 1, 1947

By Benjamin F. Tillson

THE past seven years, and 1937 in particular, have witnessed the return of New Jersey iron mining to a place of importance. Following the World War period, little mining was done for several reasons. The properties were operated by small merchant furnaces whose demand was not sufficiently large to warrant large-scale methods with their attendant low operating costs. Under those conditions, the ore produced could not compete with that from the Great Lakes. However, when on Nov. 1, 1.929, the Alan Wood Steel Co., of Conshohocken, Pa., leased the Scrub Oak and Washington properties at Mine Hill and Oxford respectively, they made radical changes in the mining and milling processes which greatly reduced the cost of production and pointed the way to a renewed interest in mining in New Jersey. The following factors have been advanced as influencing the reopening of New Jersey mines:

Jan 1, 1938

By Samuel S. Wyer

THE following abbreviations have been used in, the text: Cassier's, Cassier's Magazine. Eng. Lond., The Engineer (London). Eng. Mag., Engineering Magazine. Eng. and Min. Jour., Engineering and Mining Journal. Eng. News, Engineering News. Eng. Rec., Engineering Record. Engng., Engineering. Engr., The Engineer (Chicago). J. I. and S. I., Journal of the Iron and Steel Institute. Jour. F. I., Journal of the Franklin Institute. Jour. Assn. Eng. Soc., Journal of the Association of Engineering Societies. Mar. Eng., Marine Engineering. . Mem, Soc. Ing. Civ., France, Memoires de la Society des Ingenieurs Civils, France. Prac. Eng., Practical Engineer. Proc. Digs. Soc. of W. Pa., Proceedings of the Engineers' Society of Western Pennsylvania. Proc. I. C. E., Proceedings of the Institute of Civil Engineers. Proc. I. 1M. E., Proceedings Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Trans. A. I. M. E., Transactions of the American Institute Mining Engineers. Sci. Am., Scientific American. Sci. Am. Sup., Scientific American Supplement. Zcitschr. d. V. D. Ing., Zeitschrift des Vereines Dentscher Ingcnieure.

Mar 1, 1905

By E. H. Crabtree

IN an ideal mill, with perfect milling operations, the mineral extraction would be 100 per cent, the, concentrate would be 100 per cent mineral, the tailing would assay zer.0 mineral and the milling cost would be zero dollars. Such an operation can, of course, never be attained. We can only strive to approach it as nearly as possible and in doing so most recognize .the fact that the three primary factors in milling: assay of concentrate, assay of tailing, and cost of operation bear a definite economic relationship to each other. This relation will change from time to time and will be different for different mills, depending on milling equipment, character and quality of feed, market conditions, and other factors. It is granted that for a given operation there is an economic point, but the location of this point is difficult. It is for the purpose of making some of these economic points a little more tangible that this paper has been prepared.

Jan 1, 1930

By B. D. Thomas

When the origin and early plans, of Battelle Memorial Institute were described in this journal in October 1929 by R. W. Gillett the first director, the doors of the laboratory had just been opened and the hope of the founder that the institution serve the world by research for industry still existed only as an ideal in the minds of the thirty or so employees who then constituted the staff. Since that time the country has experienced troublous times. A devastating depression plunged the entire world into an unprecedented period of financial and industrial inactivity; and the slow recovery of the late thirties was soon to be overtaken and overwhelmed in the violence of war. Through this time of stress Battelle has continued to grow. The staff has increased to almost 600; buildings and equipment have been added, until now it stands in a place of pre-eminence in the metallurgical and engineering world.

Jan 1, 1944

By W. R. Ingalls

THE paramount subject of interest and concern at the present time is the readjustment in economic conditions following the cataclysmic disturbance produced by the war and the misconceptions leading to an orgy of extravagance that prevailed during two years following the armistice he, time is too short for me to undertake to review the nature and extent of the upheavals occurring between August, 1914, and October, 1920. Bulky volumes will be written about them. . But I shall have to refer to some of the results in order to outline a prognosis. It is the future, not the past;' that is of most interest to us. Let me be so bold as to say, without further preface, that I am not optimistic as to the near future. .We shall, indeed, have revivals in trade, but they will be delusive if their nature be not 'understood. We shall build hopes and expectations upon political maneuvers and events, only to find in the end that they were folly. In the meanwhile fundamental economic influences will continue to exert their steady and irresistible pressure. The new administratiow at Washington has no magic wand with which to kindle the fires in our idle steel furnaces, or create a million new houses for the people; nor can the premiers of Europe put into motion the spindles of the cotton and woolen mills, or by any incantations compel the people of the Orient to buy goods. The people of the Orient, and of, Europe, and of the two Americas are in the grip of the same economic forces. The readjustment has proceeded further in some parts of the world than in others. In the United States I do not think we, have gone more than over the threshold. I shall tell you why 1 think thus, but in telling you I shall be limited, in view of the immensity of the subject, to a series of bald statements, without much elucidation.

Jan 1, 1921