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By Stephen F. Munsell

The development of transportation systems for mined materials has historically been characterized by steadily increasing sizes in basic hauling units. This is especially true for open pit mines for which success is dependent upon the economical transportation of vast quantities of material. The depletion of high grade ore reserves has mandated a tremendous increase in the size and complexity of the ore haulage systems necessary for open pit mines, These increased demands were served by rail haulage systems in the early large open pit copper mines while later developed properties opted for the flexibility and lower initial costs of truck haulage. Now, we find the trucks being displaced as large overland belt conveyors tackle the problem of handling these ever larger quantities of low-grade ores with accompanying overburden ratios that can run as high as 10:1 or even 15:1. The basic development of large conveyors with shiftable sections and modular belts has generally taken place overseas, during the last few decades. The coal fields of central Europe proved an ideal testing ground for conveyor innovation because the low density and natural friability of the material created an ideal medium for transporting by belt conveyor. Now these proven ideas are being considered for and implemented into both the soft and hard rock mining industries of the United States.

Jan 1, 1978

By Tom Ireland, Sumi Eratne

The approach to Risk Management during the procurement of major projects often has a significant outcome on the ultimate successful delivery of a project. The $NZ4.4B Auckland City Rail Link project is the largest and most complex transportation project yet undertaken in New Zealand. Risk management prior and during procurement was undertaken in accordance the ITIG Code of Practice for Risk Management of Tunnel Works (TCoP) and through the use of an Alliance Geotechnical Baseline report. This paper describes the measures taken during the procurement process to achieve certainty with respect to outcomes and minimise project risks whilst also achieving value for money. This included the use of cloud-based delivery of geotechnical data and 3-D geological models, reducing tendering costs and allowing a focus on risk mitigation measures during the tender rather than data management.

Jun 13, 2021

By Nikhil Dhawan, Shrey Agrawal, SHAILA MIR

The current study investigates the effect of microwave processing on low-grade banded iron ore using charcoal, coking coal, and non-coking coal. Charcoal showed better microwave heating response at low temperatures, and the coals exhibit better heating response at higher temperatures. Low carbon dosage ~ 12% is sufficient to generate concentrate with 61.8% iron grade and ~6% for 94.8% iron recovery comprising of magnetite phase suitable for iron-making applications. The process separation efficiency of ~ 95% is achieved at 6% carbon dosage and decreases with an increase in carbon due to formation of the fayalite phase. The metallization degree showed a strong dependency on reductant dosage and achieved amaximumvalue of 22.7%at 18%charcoal. The comparison of ore with pure iron oxide and the synthetic mixture of iron oxide indicated that the underlying bonding due to banded structure enhances the Joule heating during microwave irradiation and thereby aids in attaining higher temperature and better separation.

Sep 21, 2020

By David J. Hatem, K. Bhattarai

The increasing popularity of alternative methods in delivery of underground infrastructure projects has given rise to innovative and collaborative contracting strategies to allocate and manage the unique risks associated with the work. This paper presents approaches and recent examples of how risk has been dealt with using various alternative delivery methods, including Progressive Design Build (PDB) and Construction Manager/General Contractor (CM/GC). Based on the experience gained from these examples, recommendations for an innovative and collaborative risk baselining approach using contingency sharing are presented that should advance the overall goals of equitable risk sharing and compensation.

Jun 13, 2023

By Jeremy Stone, Yiming Sun, John Stolz

The Courthouse Commons Tunnel facilitates the secure transfer of inmates between the County Jail and State Courthouse across a city block in downtown San Diego, California. This shallow tunnel was excavated using the Sequential Excavation Method in soft ground. It passes under 8- and 10-story buildings with a foundation cover of 6 feet, and crosses the active San Diego Fault with a design offset displacement of 18 inches. In this paper, key design challenges of tunnel construction are presented: limiting building settlements without using underpinning of building foundations and incorporating an oversized seismic section with seismic joints and crushable backfill

Dec 1, 2022

By Steven Hoerger

Mixed integer linear programming (MILP) production scheduling models can be used to evaluate if tonnage improvement projects will deliver value over all time periods and whether new bottlenecks will be created. These MILP models can evaluate the interconnected effects of mine and process capacities, mining locations, cutoff grades, stockpiles, and orebody grade/tonnage distributions. A case study compares potential value creation from a mine capacity increase, a mill capacity increase, or a simultaneous increase in all capacities. For perspective, project valuations for capacity increases are compared against valuations for cost reduction projects, mine planning improvements such as phase design, dynamic cutoff grades and stockpiling, and the impact of geostatistics improvements in the areas of block model accuracy and ore control selectivity.

Feb 1, 2024

By John Drew Ridge

Recent work by Haas has made available information on densities and vapor pressures of solutions of differing salinities at temperatures up to 330°C. From these data it is possible to predict the behavior of volcanic exhalations of various degrees of salinity as they approach the sea floor. Particular attention is devoted to solutions of 5.0 weight per cent NaCl and 20 weight per cent NaCl, two fluids that approximate quite closely the salinities of what Roedder termed: (1) normal hydrothermal fluids and (2) fluids typical of stratiform deposits of low-temperature conditions of origin. It is apparent that solutions above 220-230°C. cannot reach a sea floor on which the depth of water is 600 feet or less in the liquid state but will boil at some appreciable depth beneath the sea floor. Such boiling would result in the precipitation of all constituents of the ore fluids of significantly lower vapor pressure than water. The principal such constituent would be salt, and no sulfide deposits, the major constituent of which is salt are known. It follows, therefore, that ore fluids probably never get close to the sea floor of shallow seas at temperatures high enough to permit boiling. Ore fluids significantly above 230°C. can reach the sea floor in the fluid state only if the depth of the sea in the area. in question is well above 600 feet, for example, solutions at temperatures of ±300°C. reach the sea floor in the liquid state only if the depth of sea water is slightly over 3000 feet. Ore fluids reaching the sea floor at such depths may be the parents of such fluids as the Red and Salton Sea brines. On the basis of these data, the Cyprus and Kuroko deposits are discussed.

Jan 1, 1973

By C. T. Holland

Coal mining has been an important industry in the Appalachian area for many years. This is particularly true in the northern part of the area, namely, in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. Also, in the south a great deal of mining activity has been carried on in Alabama, Kentucky, and southwest Virginia. Some of the by-products of this activity has been the production of mineralized water from the mines in copious quantitites. The southern Appalachians have been somewhat more fortunate in that the water there has had a considerable amount of alkalinity in it, which has to a large extent eliminated some of the more undesirable aspects of mine drainage. Northern Appalachia, including central and western Pennsylvania, the Monongahela basin in West Virginia, and the Appalachian area in eastern Ohio have not been so fortunate in that coals in those areas and the top and bottom rock have, in many cases, shown considerable quantities of pyrite, and the water does not carry the carbonates found farther south.

Jan 1, 1969

By L. H. E. Weyher

In a previous paper presented at the 1966 Annual Meeting of AIME we reported our work, conducted at the Pennsylvania State University, on the hydrocyclone washing of fine coal.' The initial evaluation based on that work demonstrated the feasibility of hydrocyclones as fine-coal cleaning devices, and in that previous paper we presented selected test data that showed in principle how product yield and assay respond to variations of the major cyclone operating variables. The present paper reports in greater detail on the findings and presents a comprehensive evaluation of our data as follows: ? Hydrocyclone throughput rates were related to feed pressure and other variables by regression equations. These equations are compared with other capacity- versus-pressure drop expressions taken from the literature on classification cyclones.

Jan 1, 1968

By J. D. Miller

Fluid flow phenomena and therefore the flotation efficiency of air-sparged hydrocyclone (ASH) flotation are strongly dependent on the operating and design variables such as air flow rate, slurry flow rate, underflow and overflow opening areas, percent solids in the feed, reagent levels, particle size, ASH length, etc. Time-averaged multiphase flow characteristics, as deter-mined by x-ray CT and described in a previous publication, are used to understand and explain the steady-state ASH flotation of quartz. A detailed parametric study of quartz flotation by a nominal 2-inch diameter air-sparged hydrocyclone (ASH-2C) revealed the influence of these variables on the flotation response which is discussed in terms of the multiphase flow characteristics. Thus, a phenomenological description of quartz flotation has been established to assist in the further development and utilization of the ASH technology.

Jan 1, 1995

By K. C. Kocsis

Underground ventilation systems, which require electricity to operate the fans and fossil fuel for heating in winter, can account for a significant portion of the energy consumption of mines. Recent studies have shown that the ventilation system in deep and highly mechanized metal mines could be responsible for 40 to 60 percent of their overall energy consumption. Presently, underground ventilation systems are designed for peak air volume requirements, which usually occur well into a future stage of the mines’ operating life. As a result, during their early operating stages, the intake air volume of the mines could be well in excess of their true air volume needs. Such ventilation systems could be considered as uneconomic, and to remain competitive the ventilation design needs to improve while the mines are trying to reduce energy consumption and their carbon footprints. This paper introduces a new mine ventilation design method where an underground base-metal mine’s ventilation system is designed by integrating discrete-event mining process simulation (DES) with mine ventilation modeling techniques. Furthermore, based upon the output data generated by means of discrete-event mining process simulations, the air volume requirement for the operating life of the mine is determined for “traditional” versus “activity-based” ventilation requirements. The output data generated through ventilation simulations are then used to quantify the economic and environmental benefits of an activity-based ventilation delivery system.

Jan 1, 2018

By J. Kretschmann

According to the model of product life cycles, the global coal mining industry is in the stagnation phase. The coal demand of the main consumer, China, has peaked in 2013 and is slowly declining. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the world´s largest, has excluded coal-related companies for ethical reasons. Important players like the UN or the EU have already begun to describe pathways towards de-carbonization. Increasing competition between coal mining companies and the mining regions can be expected worldwide if companies want to keep their positions on the global and national coal markets. Companies will focus on the best deposits. European countries like France, Spain or Germany are only forerunners of this development - their centuries of coal production have been finished. The concept of Sustainable Development (SD) is fundamentally based on a model of progress where ecological, economic and social dimensions should be developed equally and positively. But without the idea of competition, the concept of SD is incomplete. Questions arise, such as: How can SD be realized on stagnating or declining markets without guarantees for companies “to live forever”? How can SD be a corporate goal in a phase of decline? How can declining mining regions sustainably progress into a better future? The German hard coal mining industry´s lifecycle has ended in 2018 after 60 years of stagnation and decline. As of 2019, all hard coal consumed in Germany will be imported, especially from Colombia, Russia and South Africa. What has been done in Germany to handle the coal decline in a sustainable way and the lessons learned from this process is described in this paper. It may be useful for mining regions who will face a similar future sooner or later. INTRODUCTION Principally, mining natural resources is a finite business that reaches its limits once the deposits mined are depleted, the resources can no longer be mined in an economically profitable way, or substitutes are pushing the mined products out of the market. An example for the latter is the increasing replacement of coal with natural gas and renewables in power generation in the USA. (Kok 2017) According to the model of the product lifecycle, the global mining hard coal mining industry has reached the stagnation phase. (Kretschmann 2000) Although the coal mining business is more a multi-regional than a global business the trend is obvious. The peak of coal use is behind us, especially because the coal demand of China is slowly decreasing since 2013. (Shell 2018) China´s government has announced investing $360 billion in renewable energy by 2020 and scrap plans to build 85 coal-fired power plants. In March 2018, Chinese authorities reported that the country was already exceeding official targets for energy efficiency, carbon intensity, and the share of clean energy sources. China’s energy regulator, the National Energy Administration, rolled out new measures to reduce the country’s dependence on coal. (Kejun and Woetzel 2017) Coal consumption in the US is facing a 16 % decline in five years from 800 to 670 million short tons between 2015 and 2019 and - according to the EIA – will not rise again. (EIA 2018) The decline is attributed to complex market dynamics from low gas prices because of the “shale gas revolution” (Kok 2017, p. 3) to federal environmental regulation like the Clean Power Plan. The United Nations´ UNEP Finance Initiative is cooperating with the Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition of institutional investors to implement decarbonization strategies across their portfolio. Amongst these investors is the New York State Common Retirement Fund, the third largest public pension plan in the USA. (UNEP 2017) The European Union has already begun to de-scribe pathways to decarbonization. (European Union 2018) The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the world´s largest, excluded coal-related companies for ethical reasons. The oil giants Total S.A. and Royal Dutch Shell, tradi

Jan 1, 2019

By Hamid Maleki

Mine seismicity is influenced by the mechanical properties of both near-seam strata and overburden/underburden and the prudent selection of mining methods and mine layout designs, utilizing sitespecific structural setting of the mines. The importance of adequate data collection, monitoring, and prudent structural designs has long been recognized and utilized in many U.S. operations with adequate engineering resources. In this paper, two case studies of historic seismic events and contributing factors, in deep coal and trona mines with overburden thickness exceeding 1,500 ft, are reviewed using observations and analysis. By back analyzing the overburden response in a historic room-and-pillar coal mine, the overburden collapse mechanism associated with a 3.3 magnitude seismic event is reviewed as well as the need for improvements in designs including panel and barrier pillar widths. Similar high-order seismic events were also experienced in trona mines of the Green River Basin during 1990s, interrupting room-and-pillar mining and creating ground control concerns. Efforts to improve structural mine designs are described in this paper leading to stable and productive operations for decades following the high-order seismic events in both coal and trona case studies. These efforts included improving room-and-pillar extraction layouts and utilizing properly designed longwall mining techniques that were verified using long-term geotechnical instrumentation. The study mines are located on the Wasatch Plateau (WP), Utah and in the Green River Basin (GRB), Wyoming. More recently, in Utah’s East Mountain alone, Energy West Mining Company (EWMC) has extracted some 165 million tons of coal without any significant incidents. Overall, favorable geologic conditions and prudent mine layout designs are key elements to this successful experience in both single- and two-seam layouts. Utilization of conservatively designed longwall mining technique in the GRB has been geotechnically stable, using reported experience in 15 panels and monitoring results in the Northwest (NW) District with measurable longwallinduced seismicity being rare. These studies demonstrate a considerable amount of progress that has been made within the last four decades in the application of longwall mining technique, integrated monitoring, and analyses for the verification of structural designs in mines in the United States.

Jul 1, 2023

By P. Schilizzi

The increased impact of mining subsidence in the U.S. coalfields and the recent regulatory constraints legislated by government and state agencies have provoked an intense research effort on this topic by government agencies, coal companies and academic institutions. Subsidence and horizontal strain predictions are a basic requirement if subsidence and its associated effects are to be controlled and contained within acceptable environmental levels. As a result, several such prediction techniques have been proposed or are currently under development to assist coal operators in minimizing the detrimental effects of these surface deformations. VPI&SU has been actively involved in this research effort in the past few years, with particular emphasis on the Appalachian coalfield. During the initial stages of this research a large number of subsidence case studies were collected from the literature, the coal industry and government agencies. In total, data from 32 longwall panels and 60 room and pillar panels were collected. This data bank was used to determine relationships between the basic mining and subsidence parameters, in order to allow the evaluation of the various prediction methods for the Appalachian coal region. Based on this data two subsidence prediction techniques, one based on profile functions and the other on influence functions have been developed. Profile function methods provide a tool for a fast calculation of subsidence on a line across a mine panel. Influence function methods, on the other hand, allow for a more detailed calculation of ground movements, in any mode and at any depth, on a grid or at any specific point. The limitations of the data of the collected case studies, i.e. accuracy of surveys, frequency of monitoring, lack of horizontal movement measurements, etc, led VPI&SU to the initiation of a detailed subsidence and strain monitoring program above a number of active mines, located in three major coal producing counties of Virginia. The aim of this program was to enhance the data base with accurate and complete measurements of surface movements and to allow, therefore, the refinement of the prediction techniques. This paper presents this monitoring program, discusses in detail the results obtained from three specific case studies and provides recommendations for the implementation of the field data in the general prediction methods.

Jan 1, 1986

By Michael Vitale, Lee W. Abramson, Daniel McMaster, Andrew J. Thompson

"Performing risk analyses on tunnel projects has become common place and on many projects it is required from an owner or regulatory perspective. After the project is planned, designed and constructed, the data concerning identified risks, assumptions, costs, probabilities and mitigations is generally long forgotten and buried in some file somewhere. A study was performed comparing predicted risks versus actual events on four recently constructed rock tunnel projects in New York, Ohio, Georgia and California. Probabilities and costs for selectively common risks on tunnel projects have been studied and re-evaluated. Conclusions are presented that can guide future projects and the veracity of the tunnel risk analyses performed. INTRODUCTION Tunneling is a risky business. More than ever, attention is being paid to the risks associated with tunneled facilities and implications on project or program cost and schedule. Questions about why tunneling projects notoriously exceed budget numbers abound. Evaluations in retrospect and going forward have focused on the wide breadth of inherent risks associated with tunneling. More and more, these risks are being identified, studied and managed to a higher degree. As more and more scrutiny pervades the industry, little value is being obtained and leveraged on future projects. The industry seems to be headed in a direction of making the same mistakes over and over. The notion of risk evaluation has been around for decades and received wide notoriety with the U.S. Space Program and ambitious projects in the energy industry such as hydropower and nuclear power in the 1960s and 1970s (Stewart and Melcher, 1997). This led to the evolution of tunnel risk analyses with more rigorous identification of the unique risks in tunneling projects impacting cost and schedule. As tunneling risks became more readily identified, more attention has been paid to the frequency and impact of the occurrences unique to tunneling (ITIG, 2012). Currently, few tunnel projects are being planned, designed or constructed without a formal risk register that identifies the risks, mitigates the risks and quantifies the probable impacts of risks that cannot be mitigated. In hind sight on many recent projects, events that brought projects to “its knees” were not addressed in risk assessments or were not dealt with to adequately mitigate the risk of these events."

Jan 1, 2016

By William H. Langer

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently initiated the Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project. This is a multidisciplinary study along the Rocky Mountain Front Range from Pueblo, Colorado, to Cheyenne, Wyoming, and is designed to collect, compile, and analyze new and existing data on natural aggregate (stone, sand, and gravel), as well as water, and energy resources. To identify aggregate resources in the Front Range, a 1:500,000-scale reconnaissance map showing locations and quality of both bedrock and surficial sources of natural aggregate in the Front Range urban corridor was prepared by processing the digital geologic maps of Colorado and Wyoming. The first step of the process was to identify map units as either bedrock or unconsolidated material. Bedrock was classified according to type (i.e., limestone, granite, gneiss, etc.), which in turn was classified based on the suitability of the bedrock for use as crushed stone. Unconsolidated materials were classified according to relative age, with the older, more weathered materials being defined as less suitable for use as aggregate than younger materials. As a spin-off from the Front Range Project, the techniques developed for analyzing the Front Range geology have been modified and expanded to include all of Colorado and New Mexico. More detailed digital aggregate maps (1:24,000 scale) are being prepared in collaboration with the Colorado Geological Survey (CGS). Maps from the CGS "Atlas of Sand, Gravel and Quarry Aggregate Resources, Colorado Front Range Counties" show the distribution of potential resources of sand and gravel and provide general information about the physical properties of the resources. These maps are being digitized and merged into a single Geographic Information System (GIS) data base. In addition, the project is adding more specific information to the maps about deposit thickness, volume, and quality. This additional information is being obtained through field-characterization studies and modeling activities. The GIs data base can be displayed and queried using off-the-shelf software such as ArcInfo?, ArcView?, and Map Professional?. In addition, the USGS is developing a decision-support system to assist users in analyzing various land-use options on resource availability.

Jan 1, 1999

By Emily Wortman-Wunder

As the 2012 president of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration, Inc., I am pleased to present the 2012 issue of the Transactions of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration, Vol. 332. A significant portion of the contribution that we make as a professional society is the publication of professional and technical papers that accelerate the advancement of scientific knowledge and enable the transfer of technology. Communication within the mining community is the key to a successful society. This technology exchange continues a tradition that dates back to the 1871 meeting of 22 mining engineers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, that resulted in the founding of AIME; those individuals envisioned that these transaction volumes “would form a most valuable and greatly needed addition to our professional literature.” This volume fulfills that pledge. The 2012 Transactions is the third Transactions to take advantage of new publication technologies. It is available solely as an online subscription. The new format better suits the way this material is used and, ultimately, better enables the transfer and dissemination of knowledge. The 2012 Transactions contains some of the most interesting research from the past year, including a paper on the uranium boom in Namibia, work on improving the safety of coal pillar extraction, ways to improve the optimization and efficiency of various mine activities and the newest research from the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). The 2012 Transactions consists of a total of 67 technical papers (550 pages, including index), including all 18 papers published in 2012 in the Technical Papers Section of Mining Engineering magazine (Vol. 64) and all 31 papers published in 2012 in Minerals & Metallurgical Processing (Vol. 29). Additionally, this volume contains 18 papers that are being published for the first time in this issue. The papers presented in this volume were written by some of the most distinguished professionals in the industry worldwide. All 67 technical papers were peer-reviewed. The process of review and publication requires much hard work by authors, reviewers and our publications staff. As the 2012 president of SME and on behalf of all our members, I would like to extend our gratitude to all whose volunteer efforts contributed to the publication of this volume.

Jan 1, 2012

By William Mayrsohn

INTRODUCTION The net smelter return (NSR) calculations made on various smelter-refiner alternatives, is usually done by taking the gross metal value less metal deductions, smelter-refiner charges and transportation-insurance costs. An important further step in the calculations is the financial charges imputed by refining time, transportation delays, to the time gold is returned (if tolled) or paid for if bought by the refiner. Metal that is priced in advance of payment also requires a forward premium that the mine may or may not be getting. This is a hidden cost that is often omitted from the calculations. Segmentation of each of the above costs are vital to see where improvements can be made through negotiations, better choice of metal pricing or transportation alternatives. BASIC NSR CALCULATIONS SMELTER-REFINER CHARGES Payable Metals - Treatment Refining Charges: Since these can vary from one smelter to another, the effect of a $25 per ounce price increase/decrease should be calculated and kept in mind. This effect is compared to differences in refining/treatment charge and a total smelter/refiner cost on a cost per ounce of dore, gold, or a dry ton of concentrate. Transportation - Insurance: Research has to be done on transportation alternatives perhaps with some assistance from the smelters, railroads or trucking companies. For dore, the U.S. postal service is viable and inexpensive. For railroads, deal with the regional office ie., B&N El Paso, if production warrants regular bulk shipments. Spot rates tend to be higher. A small mine producing concentrates usually goes to the nearest smelter due to extremely high transportation costs. Here is where a refiner can help. Insurance-Quotes for rates on dore/ concentrates are easily obtainable, but the mine has to shop for the best rates. Your insurance broker is the best source of this information. Differences between Mine and Smelter/Refiners Metal losses can be caused by the following: - Concentrate dry weight differences caused by moisture determination or faulty scales (often at the mine). - Sample bias by poor preparation practices on either side ie., grinding of the sample removing gold; or a poorly mixed concentrate. Dore bullion has no such difficulties.

Jan 1, 1987

By P. Bottomley, M. Matthews

Maintaining an acceptable thermal environment in South African gold mines becomes increasingly difficult as mining progresses to greater depths where higher virgin rock temperatures are encountered. Current environmental practice offsets the resulting high heat loads by installing large refrigeration plants. However, with the continued escalation of refrigeration costs, it has become necessary to examine other methods for economically combatting the underground heat load. The Chamber of Mines Research Organization has recently been pursuing a programme to devise methods of reducing the flow of heat into underground workings at source. Although there are several sources of heat (such as machinery, men, and explosives), the most significant is that from the rock mass surrounding the workings (Bluhm et al., 1986a). The main thrust of the work has therefore been directed at predicting and devising methods of reducing this heat source. A great deal of theoretical work has been carried out on the prediction of underground heat flow. From a review of this work (Bluhm et al., 1986b) it became apparent that there are two major aspects which require attention, namely algorithms for predicting the heat flow around the advancing stope face, and a correlation of the theoretical work with accurate empirical data. In order to remedy this situation, new theoretical models have been developed (von Glehn and Bluhm, 1986), and heat flow measurements have been made in both a conventional stope (Bluhm et al, 1986a) and in a backfilled stope (Matthews u., 1987). A number of methods for reducing rock heat flow are being examined. These include the insulation of intake airways (Bottomley, 1985 ), backfilling with waste material of the worked out areas, and alternative approaches to the design of mining layouts, the mining method, and the choice of cooling strategy. This paper highlights the heat load reductions that can be achieved by backfilling the worked-out areas and by adopting concentrated mining. The first part of this paper summarizes the results of the measurements obtained in the conventional and backfilled stopes. The theoretical models are then described and comparisons are made with the measured values.

Jan 1, 1987

By Roderick G. Eggert, John E. Tilton

During much of the 1970s and 1980s, world metal consumption grew more slowly than during the 19505 and 1960s. The slowdown contributed to surplus capacity and low real prices because actual consumption was consistently less than expected as new mining and mineral processing capacity came on stream. Over the last year or so, however, world metal consumption has picked up noticeably, raising the question, Has metal demand returned to the long-run growth rates more typical of the 1950s and 1960s than of the 1970s and 1980s? This paper examines this possibility and, more generally, assesses the factors that will shape demand for the major metals over the longer term. TRENDS IN METAL CONSUMPTION The extent to which metal consumption has recaptured the brisk growth rates typical of the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s is shown in Figure 1. This figure traces the consumption of crude steel, primary aluminum, refined copper, refined lead, and refined zinc between 1960 and 1987 for the western world, consisting of the OECD countries (including the United States), and the developing countries. Consumption increased in 1987 for all five metals, and preliminary data for the first six months of 1988 suggest even more substantial increases, at least for the United States (U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1988). However, Figure 1 also shows that the recent increases in consumption are not untypical of similar surges during earlier periods of economic expansion and thus may reflect only cyclical or temporary factors. In short, the available data are unable to provide a clear indication of whether recent increases in metal consumption reflect the beginning of a new era of faster growth or simply a cyclical and temporary upturn associated with the expansionary phase of the business cycle. Consequently, to pursue this issue, we are forced to examine the underlying forces that will shape metal demand trends over the next decade. The approach we have taken involves two steps. The first examines the prospects for overall economic growth. The expectation is, the faster the economy expands, the faster the production of metal-containing goods grows.2

Jan 1, 1989