Search Documents

By R. K. Komarek, F. E. Jr. Briber, G. M. Hanson, Fred D. DeVaney, J. H. Blake, C. L. Matson, T. E. Ban, N. E. Shields, R. D. Frans, R. B. Greenwalt

Metallurgically, the term agglomeration is used to describe processes whose goal is to form balls, briquettes, nodules, flakes, or other sized shaped particles from loose, usually fine, incoherent particles. In practice it includes such varying processes as the briquetting of coal dust and other substances, the balling and induration (heating) of such nonmetallics as cement, fluorspar, lightweight aggregates, etc. It includes such widely used processes as the sintering of nonferrous concentrates, such as those copper, lead, zinc, etc. The agglomeration of specific nonferrous metal concentrates is discussed in detail in the section of this handbook devoted to that particular metal. Agglomeration processes are of particular value to the iron and steel industry where the nature of the primary reduction process, the blast furnace, requires for best results a burden essentially free of fines. This is a change that has taken place since about 1960. Prior to that time many fine unsized ores were fed to the furnace. The development of the pelletizing process gave to the industry a chemically controlled closely sized product that increased the produc¬tion rate and reduced the costs so much that unsized fines are seldom used in modem furnaces. Steel plants produce many fine sized waste products such as fine dust (fine ore coke and gangue) and mill scale. These products, which have a valuable iron content, are usually sin¬tered directly at the plant for reuse. Fine sized ore concentrates are usually pelletized at the mine and shipped as pellets to the steel plant. Common practice in some areas producing natural high grade ores is to screen the ore at the mine to about 3/8 in. The oversize is shipped "as is" and constitutes blast furnace feed. The / in. may be shipped to the steel plant where it may be sintered or otherwise agglomerated. At some mines the fines may be pelletizied prior to shipment. With the development of large ocean ore carriers, and with the transportation of slurried concentrates or fines, a trend has developed of constructing large pelletizing plants or other types of agglomeration plants near large consumption centers (i.e., in the Netherlands or Japan) where ores of many types are brought together, ground if necessary, blended, and agglomerated. As an indication of tonnages of agglomerated materials produced, for iron materials alone (the largest share of the total) production in 1970 in the U.S. was Million gross ton Sinter 40.7 Pellets 43.1 Briquettes, nodules, & others 0.1 Total 83.9 During the 1960s, U.S. production of sinter rose from 40.3 million gross tons in 1961 to a high of 48.7 million in 1964, then settled back to almost the 1961 figure in 1970. Pellet production rose steadily from 14.4 million gross tons in 1961 to the 59.9 figure for 1975. Worldwide, sinter production in 1966 was estimated at 340 million mt (mainly in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S.) and pellet produc¬tion the same year at 64 mt (primarily Canada and the U.S.). World pellet production capacity rose to 200 million tons in 1976.

Jan 1, 1985

By Brian W. Hester

All gold occurrences in Tanzania are of Precambrian age and in geological settings similar to gold deposits in other parts the world. The three main areas of interest are perhaps the least prospected of areas of gold mineralization in Precambrian rocks in non- aligned, or market economy nations. Historic production exceeds 77.660 kg (2.5 million oz). Current results by small scale workers go unreported, but have been estimated to be as high as 11.000 kg (350.000 oz) annually. Gold occurs in both lower and upper Precambrian rocks. In the older. gold is associated with greenstones and iron formations typical of many cratonic areas of Precambrian age. The Tanzanian Craton lies in the north west quarter of the country where it is flanked on both east and west sides by mobile belts involving upper Precambrian rocks of high metamorphic grade. Gold occurs in fractures in the western belt within two distinct areas.

Jan 1, 1989

By Paul F. Ph. D. Ziemkiewicz, Courtney D. Black

According to the American Coal Ash Association, 105 million tons of coal combustion products (CCP) were produced by the power generating utilities in 1997. Of that total, 1.68 million tons were used in mining applications (ACAA, 1997). Results have ranged from the environmentally beneficial to neutral and, in some cases, detrimental. Twenty years ago coal ashes: bottom and fly ashes constituted nearly all CCPs. With the shift to new emission control technologies at power plants, however, large volumes of new products are being generated. Many do not lend themselves to traditional ash applications such as cement formulation. Many CCP disposal sites are not documented with reliable pre and post application monitoring. In this report we discuss types of CCP, their relevant characteristics and the mining environment. We have attempted to identify a range of documented applications and to draw conclusions about their environmental effects including benefits and adverse impacts.

Jan 1, 2000

By Paul C. Schmall, John F. Donohoe, Arthur B. Corwin

In the aftermath of the September 11th attack on the World Trade Center, groundwater control was of immediate concern. Water in?ow from the adjacent Hudson River through the compromised slurry wall ‘bathtub’ surrounding the site, ruptured water and sewer mains, and saturation from fire hoses all contributed to an already critical situation, further hampering the recovery and rehabilitation effort. An extensive pumping and deep well installation program was initiated, focused on reducing the hydrostatic loading to the severely damaged perimeter slurry wall.

Jan 1, 2003

By P. M. Soupios

The study of soft soil (wastes above the rock bed) an issue of great importance in civil engineering, is usually addressed by drilling boreholes. This method is rather expensive and time-consuming and although the information obtained is usually accurate, on the other hand it is much localized. Recently published researches have demonstrated the ability of the combination of geophysical exploration methods to estimate the thickness of deposited wastes, which provides the layered structure of the study area and certain, method depended, mechanical parameters as well. By theory, the frequency of resonance of an upper layer is a function of its thickness and the average shear velocity in it. Furthermore, the application of H/V spectral ratios of micro-tremors is a fast, straight forward and cost effective methodology, yielding the determination of the main resonant frequency of the soil. Based on this framework, 20 microtremor measurements have been carried out in a Landfill in Heraklion-Crete. Some of these measurements were deliberately close to drilled sites, where the basement had been reached. Three electrical resistivity tomographies were also used, in order to define the landfill structure such as, thickness, determination of different wastes distribution in the study area and other parameters. In addition, estimation of predictive Vs using empirical relationship between shear velocity and penetration resistance (SPT?s) were also conducted. Knowing the thickness and the resonant frequency, we estimated the shear (Vs) velocity of the waste cover. The final Vs model was confirmed using the results from the Vs-SPT correlation. The combinative implementation of the above mentioned geophysical and geotechnical methods have successfully defined geometrical and geotechnical/geophysical characteristics of the area under investigation in a fast and cost effective way.

Jan 1, 2005

By Justin Brown, Michael Kobler, Dave Ragland, Bob Shufflebotham

PROJECT OVERVIEW As the sun-bronzed San Diego students strolled casually to class, mining crews from Atkinson Construction were working only 9 meters below the surface. The330 meter long, 11.3 meter diameter squat ellipse NATM tunnel is part of the9.3 kilometer Mission Valley East Extension Light Rail Transit (MVE-LRT) being constructed for the San Diego Metropolitan Transit Development Board (MTDB). The SDSU segment of the MVE-LRT was awarded to the Clark Construction Group, the parent company of Atkinson Construction for $82.7 million. URS CORP was the prime designer and Hatch Mott MacDonald performed the NATM tunnel design. The construction managers were Washington Infrastructure Services with Underground Construction Managers, EPC Consultants, and ILF Consultants. A NATM tunnel design was chosen as the most cost-effective way to minimize disruption of the university activities. The tunnel passes close to several buildings and directly below access roads, tennis courts and a baseball field. The NATM method of conventional mining uses shotcrete for ground support often reinforced with steel orplastic fibers, welded wire mesh and lattice girders. The tunnel runs from a cut and cover box up a 4.2% grade in a 217 meter radius left-hand curve with several spirals and ends at the underground station 330 meters away. The depth of cover varies from 16 meters near the west portal to nine meters at the station. The design called for a two-pass system with a primary lining of 300 mm shotcrete with lattice girders at 1 m centers and two layers of welded wire mesh. The lattice girders are used primarily for profile control and are not considered a structural element. The top heading was designed to be excavated in one of three excavation sequences depending on ground conditions and depth of cover. In sequence one excavation, the top heading is excavated in two halves with a one-meter separation. In sequence two excavation, a side gallery is advanced 8 or more meters ahead of the

Jan 1, 2003

By S. Zaman, F. F. Aplan, Franklin T. Davis

This section deals with the oxides of heavy metals, namely, columbium and tantalum, rare earths, chrome, manganese, titanium, tin, and tungsten. Table I contains the production figures for each of these commodities in the US and in the world in 1977. Specifications for concentrates are also summarized as well as prices for concentrates in 1977. In each chapter an attempt has been made to describe the more common commercial mineral involved with the commodity and the processes used to recover and concentrate the minerals, as well as geographical areas where these processes are utilized.

Jan 1, 1985

By Christopher Hebert, Michael R. King, Mehdi Ghazi

The Inland Feeder project is a critical component of Southern California’s water delivery system, relying on a strategic plan of water transfer and storage to enable the delivery of an additional 650 million gallons of water a day. The Arrowhead West and Arrowhead East tunnels form part of this system, comprising the construction of nearly13 km (8 miles) of bored tunnel under the San Bernardino National Forest. This paper describes the design and manufacture of the 4.88 m (16 ft) diameter precast segmental primary lining that will be used in these tunnels to resist rock loads, and up to 275 m (900 ft) of external hydrostatic head.

Jan 1, 2003

By Alice S. Allen, James Paone

SURFACE SUBSIDENCE IN MINING The consequences of subsidence are becoming progressively more serious as the consumption of an ever- increasing quantity of minerals conflicts with the needs of an expanding population for surface land area. The inevitable result will be an increase in the amount of land area on which undermining is restricted because surface subsidence must be prevented. Designation of land areas that may be undermined, provided that subsidence is controlled and kept within specified limits, also will increase. The decisions as to which land is to be used for urban, agricultural, or other purposes clearly involve considerations that go far beyond the scope of mining technology. Under the authority assigned to the US Bureau of Mines (USBM) by the Organic Act (May 16, 1910) and its succeeding amendments and pursuant regulations (30 U.S.C. 1-1 1 ), the Bureau conducts scientific and technologic investigations concerning mining and its related problems. Subsidence-control demonstrations that have been conducted under this authority include projects in Wyoming, West Virginia, Illinois, and the Pennsylvania anthracite region. The problenls for technology arc to devise methods for extracting minerals with controlled subsidence in varying geologic settings and for calculating or predicting the amount, extent, and characteristics of the subsidence that accompanies the extraction of our principal minerals mined by high-tonnage methods so that logical choices can be made from the possible alternative approaches. Where underground minerals and fuels are mined and removed, the voids that are created underground generate strong imbalanced stresses in the surrounding and overlying rock strata. The resulting readjustments in the rock masses may cause subsidence of the ground surface. Subsidence implies vertical collapse, because the most conspicuous component of movement is downward. However, the downward component is accompanied by differential horizontal strains that may be more damaging to man-made surface structure.; than the more apparent vertical displacements. SUBSIDENCE CONTROL The most widespread method of alleviating potential subsidence problems in undermined areas has been to backfill mine voids with mine refuse or some other in- expensive material that provides lateral support to the remaining mine pillars and vertical support to the mine roof and overburden. Most USBM backfilling work has been conducted jointly with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources in the anthracite region of northeastern Pennsylvania. These joint projects were conducted under the authority of the Anthracite Mine Drainage Control Act of July 15, 1955 (Public Law 84-162, as amended), and the Appalachian Regional Development Act of 1965 (Public Law 89-4. as amended). In addition to the Appalachian and mine-drainage projects, the Bureau has either conducted or participated in demonstration projects to develop the "pumped- slurry" method of backfilling mine voids. Three of these projects were conducted in Rock Springs, WY. The first was a field test of the pumped-slurry technique, conducted in 1970 under the combined participation of the City of Rock Springs, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Dowell Div. of the Dow Chemical Co., and USBM (Candeub, Fleissig, 1971). The objective was to demonstrate that a large quantity of sand could be hydraulically injected under pressure through a single borehole, and that filling of the mine voids would be essentially complete. In the earlier "blind-flushing" methods, involving sluicing material through boreholes by gravity, quantities per injection hole ranged from 15 to 765 m3 (20 to 1000 cu yd), and the mine voids were only partially filled. In the first test of the pumped-slurry method, approximately 14 900 m (19,500 cu yd) of sand were injected success- fully through a single borehole. Subsequent information obtained through 43 monitoring boreholes indicated that mine voids below 11 330 m2 (2.8 acres) had been filled. As a result of the successful initial test of the pumped-slurry process, USBM conducted additional backfilling demonstration projects using the new technique. The first full-scale demonstration was carried out in the Green Ridge section of Scranton, PA, between 1972 and 1974. This project proved the feasibility of using the new hydraulic-injection technique to back- fill dry mine voids, as well as flooded voids, and it demonstrated that crushed anthracite refuse could be used as easily as sand in the process. Stabilization was pro- vided for about 202 300 m2 (50 acres) of Scranton, having a population of approximately 1000. Additional demonstration projects at Rock Springs, WY, between 1973 and 1975, resulted in the stabilization of about 364 200 m2 (90 acres). The work was necessary to preserve the physical and economic well- being of the city, because there have been numerous occurrences of subsidence during recent years. A demonstration project completed in 1976 in Rock Springs brought the total stabilized area in that city to 647 500 m2 (160 acres). At a cost of about $3,000,000, a population estimated at 7000 persons and property values exceeding $18,000,000 were protected. Presently. USBM is participating in subsidence- control projects involving backfilling in Pennsylvania, Illinois, and West Virginia. Eleven demonstration projects were in progress by USBM in 1977-eight in the Pennsylvania anthracite region and three in bituminous areas of West Virginia (one) and Illinois (two). The estimated total property value is over $100,500,000, and the total cost of the projects is expected to be nearly $20,000,000. The demonstration projects are designed to adapt the pumped-slurry technique to a variety of subsurface conditions, to increase efficiency, and to reduce costs.

Jan 1, 1982

By M. A. Pipke, C. M. Brown

The semiautogemus grinding circuit at the Utah Mines Ltd., Island Copper operation, located on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, is described. Since startup of the operation in 1971, grinding circuit throughput has been progressively increased from the initial design rate of 90 000 (99,000) to the current average 45 000 t/d (49,600 stpd) of porphyry copper ore. Key developments ad modifications in operating and maintenance practice that have contributed to this increase are reviewed.

Jan 1, 1987

By C. R. Nailler

Two recently published papers describing the use of psychological tests for selection and placement of coal mine personnel have created considerable interest within the Coal Industry, one paper, published in the April 1957 "Mining Congress Journal," entitled "Personnel Evaluation and Training," discusses the use of tests by the Christopher Coal Company, The second paper, published in the "West -Virginia Coal Mining Institute's 1957 Report" and in the September 1957 "Coal Age," entitled "Testing to Select Better Personnel for Coal Mining Today," outlines Hanna Coal Company's test and selection procedures. Since these rather detailed sources are readily available, and to avoid repetition of the material in them, we will confine this paper to a very brief review of the essential steps already taken by these companies and a more extensive look at newer material. Briefly, the Personnel Managers, Mr. Harold L, Durrett and Mr. Albert M,. Rowe, of the Hanna Coal Company and Christopher Coal Company, in conjunction with Dr. Quin F, Curtis, Head of the Psychology Department of West Virginia University, developed two different groups oftests for coal mine personnel, The first group oftests was designed to assist in the selection of supervisors. These tests of the supervisory group were "The California Short Form Test of Mental Maturity - Advanced Series," which gave an I.Q. rating, and the second test is known as "The Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory," which measures several personality characteristics, These tests must be given, grade, and interpreted by a person trained in psychological testing. As a result of testing all of Christopher's supervisory employees (seventy in number) by this method, and then comparing the individual results with the individual ratings of the foremen on the job, a so-called foremen's scale was developed. If this resulting foremen's scale had been used to select the foremen who were rated as, the best men in on-the-job performance, it would have correctly identified seventy-four percent of that group.

Jan 1, 1958

By Lech Bolinski, Joe Shirley

Over two dozen Resin-in-Pulp (RIP) plants have been in operation in the fonner Soviet Union since the beginning of 1970. Currently approximately 50% of the gold produced in Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which equates roughly to 10% of the total world output, is recovered using the RIP technology. An alternative to activated carbon, ion-exchange resin has several advantages for the recovery of gold. Resins are less prone to clay or organic foul­ing and do not require thennal regeneration. They also have poten­tially higher loading capacities, faster adsorption kinetics, and are more resistant to abrasion. The original Russian RIP process was based on engineering expertise developed for uranium ore pro­cessing and has a few major drawbacks. The biggest problem is an 18-30 day resin stripping process, which results in a huge gold lock-up. The problem was recently overcome by the development of a new stripping technology which cuts the time to 12-24 hours. Currently, there is rather limited practical knowledge of the Russian RIP process in the West, but often Western mining com­panies developing gold mines in the fonner Soviet Union are hard pressed by their local joint venture partners to take a serious look into RIP. It is probably only a matter of time before one of these companies will cross Soviet technology with Western engineering and develop a modem RIP process as an attractive option to the current CIP and CIL technologies.

Jan 1, 1996

By C. Garcia, C. L. Lin

Characterization and analysis of multiphase particles and/or particulate systems (such as the packed particle bed) are of great technological importance for mineral processing applications. In general the performance of these applications depends on the statistical characteristics of particle microstructures, such as composition distribution, surface exposure of mineral grains, pore network structure, etc. For continued technological progress in the field of multiphase particulate processes, the need for quantitative spatial analysis of multiphase particles in three dimensions has increased sign6cantly. Such quantitative information must be accurate enough that the measured values can be used as parameters for simulation models, process design procedures, and control strategies. Modern 3D image-acquisition techniques, such as X-ray microtomography (XMT), offer a unique imaging capability that can produce high-resolution (a few micrometers) three-dimensional images of the internal structure of multiphase particulate samples. These three-dimensional image data present new challenges for image analysis, image processing, and visualization. Furthermore, important issues should focus on how to use the 3D information and derive new insights into the improvement, design, and operation of mineral processing processes. In this paper, utilization of XMT for characterization and analysis of leaching process involving multiphase particulate system is discussed.

Jan 1, 2005

By A. Mertzanis

The way and methods used for the surface mining of bauxite until the end of the twentieth century in the area of Ghiona, resulted in a significant burden to the natural environment, especially in the cases where it covered extended parts of forests and forest areas as well as important geomorphological formations. The impacts from the surface mining of bauxite which in fact constitute the object of this study relate mainly to the interruption of the natural continuity of the land relief and the alteration of the natural geomorphological activities and are due to: a) the alternating excavations with fronts of great heights, b) the depositions of large volumes of waste materials which originate from the revealing of the ore and c) the dense road network constructed in order to get access to the mine locations.

Jan 1, 2006

By Lars Söderberg, Eric Sandström, Per G. Broman

INTRODUCTION Boliden Mineral AB currently mines sulfide ores in 18 mines and processes them in eight concentrators. Most ores are typically complex. Gold consti¬tutes a considerable part of the value of the ore reserves. The value of total production in 1984, distributed by different metals is shown in the pie chart below. Traditionally, gold has been recovered as a byproduct, or coproduct, along with silver in floated copper and lead concen¬trates. Gold-price trends over the past decade have prompted comprehensive efforts by Boliden to increase the recovery of gold in concentration processes. Gravimetric recovery of gold in the grinding circuit is one method that has led to quick results. This method supplements tradi¬tional recovery processes based on flotation. The development of a feasible circuit, and the results obtained by its application in the central concentrator at Boliden, in the northern Swedish province of Västerbotten, are reported below. GOLD MINERALOGY IN BOLIDEN ORES The gold content in Boliden Mineral's ores is primarily in the form of alloys with the elements silver and mercury. A minor quantity appears in an unalloyed form.

Jan 1, 1986

By Donald E. Warnken

The Study concerns the estimation of fair market value (FMV) of non-producing mineral rights. Two approaches to value are used and the values determined by each are compared. The Study area environment is unusual. The tectonics is visible on surface rocks throughout much of the study area. The effect on mineral values in the exposed areas has been compared to areas where the tectonics is not visible.

Jan 1, 2005

By M. J. Virnig, Marc Le Vier, Rong Yu Wan, Jan D. Miller

Although most gold production from primary resources is achieved by cyanidation, many research activities have focused on alternative processes using noncyanide lixiviants. Such research has been prompted by environmental concerns and problems associated with the processing of refractory gold ores. Numerous research projects have been conducted to search for a noncyanide hydrometallurgical process for gold extraction. In this paper, a technical review of gold recovery from noncyanide solutions is presented, and new results are reported. Gold recovery techniques that are considered include activated carbon adsorption, cementation, solvent extraction, ion exchange, and reduction-precipitation.

Jan 1, 1993

By Norman Miskelly

Substantial progress has been made over the last ten years in the development of uniform national and international standards covering the definition, estimation and public reporting of mineral resources and mineral reserves. Agreement between the major participating countries has been reached, which include the requirement that a Competent Person prepares and approves publication of mineral resources and reserves. Most national regulatory organizations have accepted the new standards and have included them in the rules that must be followed by mining companies operating under their jurisdiction. These developments are the result of a concerted effort on the part of professional societies, national regulatory agencies, international organizations, and many dedicated individuals. The historical development of these standards is summarized in this paper. Accepted definitions of mineral resources and mineral reserves are discussed, as well as the definition and role of the Competent Person. Additional effort is needed before the international standards are fully understood, accepted and followed by mining companies, regulatory agencies, the investment community and the general public. Steps being taken toward development of a Mineral Reserves International Reporting Code Template (International Template) that will be available for all countries to use in deriving their specific country reporting codes, are outlined

Jan 1, 2003

By Richard L. Gordon, William A. Vogely

ENERGY POI.ICY-PRINCIPLES AND THEIR PRACTICE Persistently, at least since the end of World War 11, governments have intervened broadly, deeply, and incoherently in major energy markets. If we take a broad definition of energy that encompasses gas distribution and electric power, we can observe regulations of even older vintage. This trend, of course, is not unique to energy. Expansion of government controls has occurred in many areas. The relevant basic question about energy regulation, therefore, is not why is energy special, but whether any general principles exist to explain the wisdom of existing regulations. This review takes place at a time, the middle 1980s, in which a massive onslaught is being undertaken against government regulation. However, the present chapter is influenced primarily by my observations of the failures of energy regulations and not by any inspiration from those ideologically opposed to government intervention. Several subquestions arise in policy appraisal. A primary need is to establish clear objectives and determine the consistency between these goals and the policies imposed. Thus, the first step is to set objectives. The next is to outline ways to attain these goals. However, it should be recognized that many apparently distinct options are economically equivalent. When the goal is to charge producers or consumers for something, it is possible to attain the same result through either government ownership or taxing private transactions. The tax can raise the price to the level the government would have charged if it were the owner. Creation of a Department of Energy is not necessarily any different from having separate energy agencies well coordinated by some small supervisory body. Thus, a distinction should be made between substance and form in policymaking. The critical substance concerns such matters as whether the government imposes financial penalties, incentives, or rules to attain a goal. Then, there can be many equivalent ways to implement the basic policy form. The second prior illustration suggests that one favorite question is how to attain proper integration of policy. At various times, voices on either (or even both) sides of the Atlantic have called for a coordinated energy policy. The U.S. Paley Commission made this a primary goal for future policy. The western European governments that were the founding members of the Coal and Steel, Economic, and Atomic Energy Communities spent much time in the middle fifties and much of the sixties trying futilely to agree on an energy policy. (See Gordon, 1970 for an annotated review). The energy price rises of the 1970s rekindled United States interest in coordination. However, astute observers of the problem such as O. C. Herfindahl of the United States and Maurice Allais (1 962) in France warned the discussions confused form with substance. The crucial issues were what were the goals and what were the best types of policies to attain such goals. Policy suffered, not from poor organization, but from discord about the goals and how to attain them. All this suggests that we need principles to guide policy appraisal. The branch of economic theory known as welfare economics concentrates on providing guidance about the problems of policymaking. The theory examines both what

Jan 1, 1985

By Samuel Frimpong

In this paper, the authors present a typical mine profitability model. The method of generating system moments is used to examine the sensitivity of the profitability function to changes in the dependent variables, and to express the expected risk associated with undertaking the project in a predicted economic and technical environment. Profitability of a mining venture is a function of many variables ore grade, capital and operating costs, milling efficiency, ore reserve tonnage and annual tonnage, equity - loan structure, tax regime, etc. Estimates of the expected value and the variance of the profitability function are obtained by calculating the partial derivatives of the function with respect to the dependent variables, using the Taylor series expansion method to the second order. Sensitivity analysis is carried out by examining the effects of each variable on the profitability function, which is determined by the magnitude of the product of its partial derivative and variance. An appropriate probability density function, based on the expected value and the variance of the profitability function, is assumed to estimate the expected risk associated with the project. This expected risk is a measure of the area under the profitability density function below the appropriate, selected discount rate or the cut-off net present value (NPV). The results are compared with those obtained by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and they show that either of the two methods could be used to evaluate the probability of project failure or success with no significant difference.

Jan 1, 1992