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By S H. Begg

There is strong evidence that many major oil and gas (O&G) projects are plagued by large cost and schedule overruns, or significant underperformance in productivity. Similar evidence exists for large mining projects. This paper claims that uncertainty is the underlying reason why projects fail to deliver the metrics used to justify their investment, or to deliver the economic value possible if alternative decisions had been made.Most technical and economic analyses are performed to reduce uncertainty to help make decisions. Decision-making is about ranking alternatives and choosing the best; rarely are precise predictions required, if this is even possible. Better uncertainty assessment is one of the keys to better decisions, thus better business outcomes. To get better decisions it is suggested that the focus or reward/penalty incentives be shifted away from the quality of outcomes to the quality of decisions. High-quality decisions are those that are generated from the skilled use of the tools, methodologies and processes from the discipline of decision analysis.Uncertainty is quantified by probability, which is a degree of belief in the truth/falsity of some proposition about a quantity relevant to a decision, such as volume of in-place resource, future price or action of a competitor. The probability a person ascribes to a proposition depends upon their information set; hence probability is subjective – it is not an inherent attribute of the quantity of interest or the physical system.The above simple observations have profound implications for modelling approaches, how they deal with uncertainty, the use of data to help assess uncertainty and the reliability of information provided by subject-matter experts. The limited circumstances under which frequency data (from spatial or temporal variables) can be used to assign probabilities is also reviewed.People, in general, are subject to a range of biases and cognitive errors. Research with O&G subject-matter experts shows that their expertise offers little or no protection from making errors in probability assessments and other judgements.CITATION:Begg, S H, 2016. Decisions, decisions – uncertainty, variability, modelling and psychology, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 9–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By Joseph Coffman

There are 14 operations that supply 97% of the Market Economy Country (MEC) manganese and contain nearly all of its resources. Six mines account for about 70% of the production and 85% of the resources; there are no known resources that are economically close to those that are currently being mined. Costs (January 1989 dollars) of producing manganese concentrates from the operations evaluated are estimated to range from $ 0.96 to $ 1.86 per long ton unit (ltu or 22.4 lb) of contained manganese. Total MEC demonstrated resources evaluated amount to about 1.2 billion tons of in situ ore containing 474 million tons of manganese. Identified resources amount to about 1.8 billion tons of in situ material. Key results of the study indicate the following: 1. The MEC supply of manganese will be from the currently mined resources well into the next century. 2. Centrally Planned Economy Countries (CPEC's) will be increasingly dependent on MEC manganese ore and concentrate in the future. 3. At the 1976 to 1987 demand increase rate, total MEC resource needed through the year 2000 would be about 282 million tons of in situ material. 4. Transportation and infrastructure support will continue to be major elements of production costs.

Jan 1, 1992

By R. W. Raymond

EDWARD COOPER, was born in New York City, October 26, 1824. His father, Peter Cooper, to say nothing of manifold reasons for fame as an inventor and philanthropist, deserves to be remembered as a pioneer in the establishment of public schools; and it is not surprising that he sent his son to one of the democratic institutions in which he was himself so ardently interested. From the public school Edward Cooper went to Columbia. College, where he made the acquaintance of Abram S. Hewitt, who was first his tutor, afterwards his traveling companion, brother-in-law, business partner and life-long friend.* For twenty years I was the consulting engineer of the firm of Cooper & Hewitt, and also connected with the work of the Cooper Union, in which they were both deeply interested and faithfully active. On the basis of the intimate knowledge thus gained, I venture an estimate of Edward Cooper's character and career which, if not fully comprehensive, may facilitate a juster estimate than would be reached by the strident of those data which the modesty of the man permitted to be placed upon public record. Edward Cooper's mind was one of the most active, accurate and subtle with which I have ever come into contact: He had inherited from his father a sunny, benevolent temperament, and' the irresistible impulse to attack all new problems which challenged his attention. His thorough education had 'indeed made him wiser than his father, both in philanthropy and in technical inventions. He could condemn and reject a proposition which Peter Cooper would have embraced, in a splendid, though ignorant, faith that nothing was impossible to an. American, and that the word ? impossible " was simply a label,

Jul 1, 1906

By D. Harrington

This paper is a revision of Information Circular 7380, by D. Harrington and J. H. East, Jr., published in 1946, entitled ?Safe Storage, Handling, and Use of Commercial Explosives in Metal Mines, Nonmetallic Mines, and Quarries.? Issued soon after the close of World War II, this earlier circular described the unprecedented increase in the production and use of commercial explosives during the war as a result of expanded industry and the tremendous demand f or metals and minerals. In the years following World War II, the production and use of commercial explosives in the United States have continued to rise. Hence, the Bureau of Mines presents these revised figures through 1952. In rewriting this Wormation circular, most of the text prepared by Harrington and East has been retained, with newer statistical information compiled by Seth T. Reese, Accident Analysis Branch, and V. E. Wrenn, of the same branch.

Jan 1, 1954

Good morning and thanks for the chance to talk to you. It's really pleasing to see so many industry representatives here I want to spend a few minutes talking about issues relating to your industry. At the end of today I would like to leave you with three strong messages from government. The first is that this government supports environmentally responsible mining and the endeavours of the mining industry. The second is that explorers and developers are wanted and welcomed in New Zealand. And the last is that it is up to the industry to keep the public properly informed about how your industry and to constantly work on improving your public image. The mining industry is a high-tech industry which fits snugly with our concept of a growing knowledge-based economy. It has particular value for regional development, the gold mining industry alone provides more than 4,000 jobs û mostly outside of the main cities. The industrial minerals industry is twice as large as that. As well as those people directly employed by the industry there are greater downstream effects for the community. One example from the broader extraction industry of this is of the local pie shop down the road from one of Taranaki's petroleum industry locations. The shop sells over $4,000 worth of pies a week to workers in the industry. That's just one example of the positive benefits the industry brings to its local community and is the sort of real positive benefit you need to be telling people about  

Jan 1, 2000

By K. K. Kelley

The collection and correlation of thermodynamic data concerning substances of metallurgical interest have constituted one of the major activities of the Pacific Experiment Station of the Bureau of Mines, at Berkeley, Calif., for the past several years. Earlier bulletins (32, 33, 34, 36, 36, 37, 38) s in this series are entitled: (1) Contributions to the Data on Theoretical Metallurgy. I. The Entropies of Inorganic Substances; (2) Contributions to the Data on Theoretical Metallurgy. II. High-Temperature Specific-Heat Equations for Inorganic Substances; (3) Contributions to the Data on Theoretical Metallurgy. III. The Free Energies of Vaporization and Vapor Pressures of In¬ organic Substances; (4) Contributions to the Data on Theoretical Metallurgy. IV. Metal Carbonates--Correlations and Applications of Thermodynamic Properties; (5) Contributions to the Data on Theoretical Metallurgy. V. Heats of Fusion of Inorganic Substances; (6) Contributions to the Data on Theoretical Metallurgy. VI. A Revision of the Entropies of Inorganic Substances-1935; and (7) Contributions to the Data on Theoretical Metallurgy. VII. The Thermodynamic Properties of Sulphur and its Inorganic Compounds. The present paper collects and discusses thermodynamic data relating to metal carbides and nitrides, with the view of obtaining usable heat and free energy of formation relationships. Pertinent data on both classes of substances are difficult to obtain experimentally and consequently are extremely rare; it is therefore necessary in many cases, if equations are to be derived, to introduce certain approximations and assumptions. Lack of adequate means of checking results by utilizing data of different types, such as was done frequently in the bulletins dealing with carbonates and sulphates, are readily apparent to anyone who has made even a cursory examination of the available information. Consequently, some of the relationships derived undoubtedly will be found to be inaccurate when more or better data become available. Nevertheless, in view of the importance of some of these substances, it appears worth while to consider the information available at present and to attempt the formulation of as complete a

Jan 1, 1937

By James C. Barker

The analytical variability encountered when sampling for platinum-group metals (PGM) was statistically evaluated during a 1983 study by the Bureau of Mines and the University of Alaska. Sampling procedures were designed to systematically incorporate commonly used reconnaissance exploration techniques under actual field conditions. Analytical variability was evaluated at each procedural step. Analytical data from each sample from a single deposit grouped relatively well around the calculated mean for that deposit. Standard deviations did not exceed 43 pct of the mean for any of the deposits; more commonly, the deviation was about 25 pct. Statistical treatment of the data by analysis of variance indicated the most important source of error is selection of the sample site. Two or more replicate samples appear necessary to adequately quantify the PGM content. Secondly, significant variation occurs during preparation of a pulverized split for fire assay. The optimum sample size was in the 11-lb range; larger samples did not appreciably reduce variability. Smaller samples generally indicated a higher degree of variability. Evaluation of the sample method suggested the common grab sample, if carefully taken, is a useful indicator of the general range of PGM concentration but potentially includes a considerable margin of error.

Jan 1, 1985

By C. P. Haller, S. J. Aresco

"INTRODUCTION The Bureau of Mines has been active in promoting the purchase of coal for Government use under specifications that define the requirements in terms of heat¬ing value of the coal, expressed in British thermal units, and the composition as shown by proximate analyses. To these, when required, are added the fusing temperature of ash and the free-swelling index. Under most of these specification contracts the bidders guarantee the quality of the coal, and that guaranteed by the successful bidder becomes the standard of his contract. The deliveries are sampled in accordance with instructions./ issued by the Bureau; the samples are analyzed in the Bureau's laboratory to determine whether the coal is of the quality guaranteed by the contractor and, if it is not, a price adjustment is made.Analyses of the delivered coal and ""tipple"" samples (samples collected at mine tipples as coal is being loaded into railroad cars or trucks) provide valuable data for use in evaluating future bids. Moreover, the continuous sampling of coal as delivered is a check on the practical results obtained in burning the coal.The Government purchased approximately 5-1/2 million tons of coal in fiscal year 1951. In connection with these purchases, the Bureau analyzed 10,700 samples. These are published for the use of Government officials and the public. A series of publications s been completed on coal analyses by States, or, where production is small in any State, by groups of adjacent States. In addition to analytical data showing composition and quality of coals of the States, the publications contain brief descriptions of the geological structure of the coal basins, typical mining conditions in the various districts, the principal economic data of the industry, and the relationship of mine or channel samples to delivered and tipple samples. The present publication covers many States but deals only with the analytical data of the coals.The technical papers published by States, with their numbers are: Alabama, 347; Alaska, 682; Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon, 696; Arkansas, 416; Colorado, 574; Illinois, 641; Indiana, 417; Iowa, 269 and 706; Kansas, 455; Kentucky, 308 and 652; Maryland, 465; Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas, 700; Missouri, 366; Montana, 529; New Mexico, 569; Ohio, 344 (and Bulletin 499); Oklahoma, 411; Pennsylvania Bituminous, 590 (Supplement, 645); Pennsylvania Anthracitic, 659; Tennessee, 356 and 671; Utah, 345; Virginia, 365 and 656; Washington, 491 (Supple¬ment, 618); West Virginia, 405 and 626; and Wyoming, 484."

Feb 1, 1953

By Tom Treleaven

The success of any blast is dependent on the accuracy of the blast design and the field controls used on the shot. This point cannot be over emphasized because when the geometry is not measured and/or field controls are not properly implemented, it can often have devastating effects on the final blast results. Thus drilling accuracy, tiont row burden control, explosive confinement, energy distribution, explosive selection, timing and structural geology become critical parameters in the design of successful blasts. Understanding the actual dynamics of the blast and why certain results were achieved is the fast step in optimizing a blast design. As stated by R. Frank Chiappetta, “Of all the blast monitoring systems available today, high speed videography still remains as the best stand alone instrumentation system for blast diagnostics.” Over the past years I have analyzed hundreds of blasts using either high-speed lowcams (500 frames per second) cameras or standard digital (30 frames per second). These analyses confirm, without a doubt, that shot geometry, in combination with structural geology, is the most important factor in overall blast results. Drilling accuracy is the single most important component in efficient blasting. Having equal mass associated with an equivalent energy is the basis in which blasts are designed. When drilling inaccuracy or borehole deviation occurs, not only is the energy unevenly distributed, but the basis of all design calculations becomes invalid. Over the past several years, quarry and mining operations have employed the use of boretracking measuring devices to measure borehole deviation and hole toe locations. In cases of operations using top hammer drills, it was discovered that the amount of deviation was significant and far greater than they believed they had. Set up error, improper drilling techniques and bit wear were some of the contributing factors. Through video anaysis of boretracked blasts, blast results were directly linked to drilling ..accuracy. The comparisons here took into account blast design, energy factors and hole sequencing.

Jan 1, 2000

The distribution of tin and iron between slag and metal phases at about 1150°C was studied in pot scale experiments. The distribution coefficient k = (Sn/Fe) In metal X (Fe/Sn) in slag was found to vary from about 300 for metal corresponding to nearly pure tin, to about 100 for metal of about miscibility gap composition (17' 4 per cent Fe). Results conformed reasonably well to a straight line relationship between log k and (l-2NFe), as expected on theoretical grounds, and are consistent with thermodynamic data for the Fe-Sn phase diagram and the reaction Fe + SnO = FeO + Sn.Calculations are presented indicating the feasibility of smelting low-grade tin concentrates in a two-stage counter-current reduction process.

Jan 1, 1966

By O. Llewellyn Jack

From September 1978 to December 1983, ESD Corporation (formerly a Division of FMC Corporation) undertook the development and testing of a bidirectional auger under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy. Underground testing began in August 1981 at Peabody Coal Company's Marissa Mine near Marissa, Illinois. The auger was developed to increase mine production and coal recovery without increasing land subsidence. It bored 4-foot-diameter by 10-foot-deep holes into pillars on 7-foot centers (each hole recovering 5 tons). All operating during this test was performed by maintenance personnel with the goal of finding ways to increase the machine potential. The maximum excavation rate achieved was 1.4 tons per minute. It was concluded that the concept of drilling short holes to extract coal from underground pillars without surface subsidence was practicable with a wheel mounted auger, but that more power was desirable for this mine, and that the hydraulically driven augering system that provided experimental versatility was not sufficiently reliable for production use.

Jan 1, 1983

Coal research and related activities in 1964 by the Bureau of Mines resulted in many advances in the production, preparation, and utilization of this valuable natural resource. Mining research during the year was marked by work on hydraulic mining, coalbed degasification, mine drainage control, mine sealing, strip-mine rehabilitation, and quenching of mine-refuse fires. Bureau research continued to produce information leading to increased safety in underground mining. Such research included roof and rib control via bolting and bonding, pressure monitoring of coal and mine rock during mining operations, and development of safety devices for detecting conditions leading to roof falls. Other safety work was continued on methane detectors, coal-dust suppression, and mine ventilation equipment and techniques. Mine explosion and explosives research, mine equipment and materials, safety rule modernization, and safety education and training of mine workmen were continued. Coal storage and preparation work in 1964 ranged from freezeproofing of lignite for rail shipment, through washability studies of coals and washing equipment, to research on new ways to remove ash and sulfur from coal. Electric power production, which accounts for a major portion of the market for coal, received further study. Unique power generation systems, including coal-burning gas turbine and megnetohydrodynamic generators, were intensively investigated. Conventional power systems were improved through continuation of work on furnace performance, powerplant stack gas purification, and engineering and boiler water service.

Jan 1, 1965

By S. H. Lorain

This paper briefly describes the principal commercial and near-commercial deposits of gold-bearing gravel and the important placer-mining operations in Lemhi County, Idaho. It is on of a series on western mining districts being published by the Bureau of Mines. This paper is based on a field survey of the placer-mining districts of Lemhi County in the summer of 1938. Available information concerning gold-bearing gravels was obtained from prospectors and claim owners; operators supplied the data on mining operations. No attempt was made actually to test the gravels. The principal object of the examination was to indicate placer areas worthy of further investigation by prospective operators.

Jan 1, 1939

By L. Andrews

Mineralogy, traditionally associated with concentrator studies, is being increasingly applied to problems in pyrometallurgy. Such investigations commonly make use of a number of techniques, and the results are combined for a meaningful interpretation, which can lead to a successful solution for the problem. Mineralogical techniques are described for various pyrometallurgical operations. Examples are given of studies and investigations involving mineralogy in chemical-looping combustion, feed monitoring to platinum-smelting furnaces, and losses to slag in base metal and platinum smelting.

Jan 1, 2011

By J. M. Elder, W. S. Kow

Challenges to new heavy mineral deposit developments are presented. These include land use issues, particle fineness, declining grades, and particle coating, amongst others. Industry responses to these are presented as possible solutions.

Jan 1, 2005

By H. P. Greenwald

[In many coal-mining countries, during he pest decade, there have seen made extended studies and accurate measurement of movement of roof strata, tests of the physical properties of specimens cut therefrom, and tests of the strength of end load on artificial supports. Naturally, such studies have been more extensive in European countries, where mining conditions are less favorable than in the United States. As a part of its work in the conservation of coal resource and prevention of accidants in mines, the Bureau of brines began systematic measurements of the movement of roof strata to in coal mines in the fall of 1935. It was decided- that, in the beginning, work on a rapidly retreating rib line in a mechanized mine would give the greatest amount of information in a reasonable time. To this end w cooperative tine agreement was made with the Pittsburgh Coal Co., through Dr. L. E. Young, vice: president in charge of operations, for conduct of work in that company's Montour 10 mine operating in the Pittsburgh coal bed. This paper gives an account of the methods used in the investigation, excerpts from the data obtained, and such generalizations as appear to be justified.]

Jan 1, 1937

By H. P. Greenwald

[In many coal-mining countries, during he pest decade, there have been made extended studies and accurate measurement of movement of roof strata, tests of the physical properties of specimens cut therefrom, and tests of the strength of end load on artificial supports. Naturally, such studies have been more extensive in European countries, where mining conditions are less favorable than in the United States. As a part of its work in the conservation of coal resource and prevention of accidents in mints, the Bureau of Mines began systematic measurement of the movement of roof strata to in coal mines in the fall of 1935. It was decided that, in the beginning, work on a rapidly retreating rib line in a mechanized mine would give the greatest amount of information in a reasonable time. To this end a cooperative agreement was made with the Pittsburgh Coal Co., Dr. L. E. Young, vice president in charge of operations, for conduct of work in that company's Montour 10 mine operating in the Pittsburgh coal bed, This paper gives an account of the methods used in the investigation, excerpts from the date obtained, and such generalizations as appear to be justified.]

Jan 1, 1937

By Julie N. Walker

This U.S. Bureau of Mines report reviews the first 2 years of the agency's progress in implementing total quality management (TQM), which the agency refers to as Quality Improvement (QI). All employees have been trained in basic TQM concepts, a cadre of facilitators has been selected and trained, and 13 Bureauwide teams are addressing specific issues that were identified by Bureau employees nationwide as problem areas. Also in place are a Quality Council composed of the Bureau's top executives, a Quality Management Board, and eight QI Working Groups to provide a national 01 infrastructure. There are also Quality Steering Groups at each Bureau location nationwide to address local concerns. In addition to the narrative text, the texts of salient memoranda and other documents are included as appendixes.

Jan 1, 1992

By Zay Jeffries

From the title of this chapter the reader could expect an attempt to outline the anticipated shape of things to come, mineralwise. We have no crystal ball and if we possessed one we could claim no expertness in its use. In the first place no one can tell the future status of man. No one has any way of knowing to what extent peace will prevail, nor to what extent changes may occur in national sovereignties or forms of government or in international relationships. So future man is an uncertainty. Nor can we predict new developments that may result in significant changes in man's status or in the mineral industry or both. If, for example, this chapter had been written in the middle 1930's, nearly everything that has happened since in the field of atomic energy would have been missed. Yet what a vast change this has made in the status of man! Also the changes in the mineral industry have been important. A writer would have been bold indeed had he prophesied that uranium would play such an important role. But we need not confine our foggy vision to the atomic energy field. The steep rise in the use of aluminum, titanium, and germanium reflects the unpredictable in what may be thought of as the more normal pursuits. This should not discourage one from using the past and currently observable trends as bases for limited predictions. To do this, however, it is desirable to make certain assumptions about man's status without even a pretense that these assumptions have a high probability of fulfillment: 1. Only minor changes will occur in the geographical boundaries of the nations of the world. 2. World War III will not take place in the near future. 3. As a consequence of (2), man will not destroy himself by wanton use of atomic weapons. 4. Disarmament will take place, if at all, gradually rather than all at one time. Under the above assumptions the world will enjoy a period of relative peace even though the status may be one of an armed truce. The assump-

Jan 1, 1959

By R. J. Charles

F. C. Bond: This is an outstanding paper on comminution theory and represents a considerable advance in mathematical formulation. It clears the way for a discussion that should ultimately decide whether the work index should be considered as a parameter according to the Third Theory or as a constant. In the empirical differential equation dE = —Cdx/x [1] either Corn must be treated as a variable to satisfy known crushing and grinding conditions. The author has chosen the exponent n as the variable, with C as a constant. According to the Third Theory, in the general case n is a constant equal to 3/2, and C is a variable related to the work index Wi. If x is placed equal to P (the size in microns which 80 pct of the product passes) and F is the size 80 pct of the feed passes, then C equals 5 W1, and dE = 5 -5 Widx/x = 10 Wi 10 Wi w = vP vF which is the basic equation of the Third Theory. It is apparent that this integration involves the error of treating the parameter Wi as a constant, just as the author's treatment involves the error of integrating his variable n as a constant. These errors are probably relatively unimportant, considering the small range of the variables. When more is known about the factors contained in the work index, Eq. 1 can be revised as a partial differential equation. The Third Theory exponent of 1/2, or n = 3/2 in the Charles' differential equation (Eq. l), was not chosen primarily because it is the average between the Kick and Rittinger exponents; this may be merely fortuitous, since it is illogical to define truth as the average between two errors. It was first discovered from the study of a large mass of crushing and grinding data and confirmed by laboratory testing. The general correspondence of the Third Theory equation to actual crushing and grinding results over the entire size reduction range argues strongly that a fundamental phenomenon is involved. The a posteriori theoretical explanation of the constant Third Theory exponent is that the work done in breaking rock is proportional to the length of the crack tips formed. Compressive force applied to the rock results in deformation and strain energy. When this locally exceeds the breaking strength a crack tip forms, the surrounding strain energy flows to the crack tip and extends it to split the rock, with release of the energy as heat. Under rapid impact the crack tip may form before the strain has reached equilibrium, resulting in less energy expenditure and probably a coarser product. In any case, the elastic limit of a brittle material is practically the same as its breaking strength, and the work necessary to form the crack tip is the work required to break. The crack length of a ton of broken rock cannot be measured directly. However, the particle shapes of feed and product are similar, and the crack length is considered equal to the square root of one half of the new surface area formed. It is, therefore, proportional to 1/vD, where D is the equivalent product particle diameter. This is the basis of the Third Theory equation. Many secondary factors can be imposed upon the crack length breakage. These may cause the Third Theory work index to increase or decrease somewhat as the product size becomes finer. The work index is properly a parameter rather than a constant, making it an increasingly valuable practical criterion of the work input required in crushing and grinding.

Jan 1, 1959