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By Ralph L. Brown

"IntroductionThe accumulation of gummy and resinous deposits in consumers' gas meters began to assume serious proportions about 1917. As the trouble developed and spread in the years following, it manifested itself in several ways, which ultimately began to the expressible in distinctly economic terms, more specifically in terms of costs; in 1922 an organized and fundamentally based investigation of this trouble was begun. In an earlier paper*** a short statement of the occurrence and costs of the deposition was given and at the same time an analysis of the problem, as well as well as a general plan of attack, was presented. That plan included two general phases, first, a chemical study of typical was 1 quarry or 2 cosinous content , mauformly consituents, rmln and selected subjects; and secondly, a comparative survey of plants affected and sufficient therewith, attention being paid to construction, operation, meter conditions and related data. In reporting progress in the axtual investigation, it was definitely set down that the basis of the gummy deposits was the unsaturated hydro consulting from the carburxtion of the water-gas with oil. That the presence of oily-gas condensate was closely associated with and largely"

Jul 1, 1923

By Leonard Obert

This report describes the development of a dynamic strain gage and a companion amplifier and recording camera -an apparatus designed to pick up and record the strain waves produced in rock by a nearby explosion. Also included in the report is a discussion of the relationships connecting the strain with the displacement, velocity, and acceleration for both plane and spherical waves. The proposed tests for which the strain gages were intended required making measurements in solid rock, a factor that necessitated the development of a gage that could be inserted and anchored in a small-diameter diamond-drill hole. The restriction on the diameter of the drill hole is required so that the presence of the hole in the medium will not influence the propagation of the strain wave. The gage should respond with fidelity to the frequencies present in a wave pulse generated by the nearby detonation of a small quantity of high-velocity explosive. Preliminary tests showed that this frequency range extends from 200 to 10,000 c.p.s. or greater. Also, the gage should be capable of measuring strains ranging from a few micro-inches per inch to several thousand micro-inches per inch. Other desirable design specifications included a low gage output impedance to permit the use of long cables, and a low gage cost, particularly in view of the fact that for the final design none of the gages can be recovered from the medium.

Jan 1, 1949

By H. Robert Ensminger

As a result of the new mining law implemented in August 1985 and the programs conducted by the Institute Ecustoriano de Mineria (INEMIN), which was created by this legislation, there was considerably greater activity in the nonfuels mineral sector during 1986. Over the next 2 years, INEMIN will be developing a national mining plan that will guide Ecuadorean mineral development for the balance of this century. As stage one of INEMIN's mineral study, historical records were reviewed and 300 abandoned mines and 1,200 unexplored mineral deposits were available for further investigation. In 1986, INEMIN established 5 branch offices and negotiated 250 new mining contracts with foreign companies valued at $16 million. Despite all this activity, INEMIN officials estimate that 100,000 square kilometers remain available for claim staking. Technical assistance contracts were signed with Belgium, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, to assist in a variety of assignments ranging from helping prepare the national minion plan to the development of industrial mineral deposits.

Jan 1, 1988

By (NIOSH) Publication

In 2004, a total of 2,011 coal mining operations reported employment to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). Coal mines comprised 13.9% of all mining operations.

Sep 1, 2007

By NIOSH Publication

In 2004, a total of 7,074 sand and gravel mining operations reported employment to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA).

Sep 1, 2007

By Thaddeus B. Evans

This information circular is one of a series describing mining methods and costs, being published by the Bureau of Mines. The Sunbright mine of the Foote Mineral Co. at Sunbright, Va., is the southernmost underground limestone mine in the State. It is a comparatively recent operation, and a description of its rapid development to production stage may have particular interest for the limestone-mining industry. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Acknowledgment is made to the executives of the Foote Mineral Company including F. B. Shay, vice president in charge of production, W. B. Towner, general production manager; and to the members of the company staff at Sunbright for their assistance in preparing this paper.

Jan 1, 1957

By T. T. Campbell

Research conducted by the Bureau of Mines demonstrated the feasibility of preparing columbium and tantalum metals by the application of Kroll-process techniques. Yields in excess of 95 percent were obtained in a modified Kroll-process reduction apparatus constructed from nickel and Inconel.4 Operating conditions during reduction and distillation were determined. Optimum temperatures during sodium reductions ranged from 650° to 750° C and for magnesium from 700° to 800° C with retort pressures ranging from 3 to 7 psig. Undesirable vapor phase reactions occurred when temperatures exceeded 750° C during sodium reductions or 850° C with magnesium. Vacuum distillation at 850° C effectively removed volatile salts and excess reductant from the reduced metals. Calculations based on the results obtained in small scale tests indicate that reaction rates of up to 34 lb/hr could be obtained during columbium reductions and up to 60 lb/hr during tantalum reductions in production scale reac¬tors. The small, laboratory-scale techniques used in this study could be adapted to commercial practice. The reduced powder or sponge metals can be consolidated by conventional arc-melting techniques, and the arc-melted metals can be fabricated into ductile sheet at room temperature. Analyses of arc-melted buttons prepared from Kroll-process tantalum or columbium showed that tantalum of greater than 99.8-percent purity was obtained and that columbium purity exceeded 99.7 percent. A significant purification of the reduced metals occurred when they were consolidated by electron-beam melting, and the purity and ductility of electron-beam-melted Kroll-process tantalum and columbium compared favorably with the commercial metals. After electron-beam melting, the purity of the tantalum exceeded 99.95 percent, and columbium purity was approximately 99.9 percent.

Jan 1, 1962

By A. L. Engel

As a part of the program of the Rare and. Precious Metals Experiment Station, Reno, Nev., in connection with investigations of treatment methods for precious and precious-base metal ores, to further conservation and recovery of precious and base metals, tests Were made on samples from the Buzzard Mine, located in the vicinity of Placerville, Calif. These samples represented ore exposed during previous development work, in tunnels and a shaft on the property, including highly oxidized material from the surface zone and sulfide ores from depths of 150 to 300 feet. The surface samples contained little base metal and only enough gold 80 that economic exploitation of them would depend on development of a large tonnage of ore, low-cost mining methods, and satisfactory treatment methods. The sulfide samples were valuable enough to warrant further exploration and development and, if present in suitable tonnage, the installation of a treatment plant for recovery of both precious and base metals. The oxidized surface-zone samples carried 0.11 to 0.14 ounce gold per ton. Standard amalgamation and flotation tests of these samples gave low recoveries. Standard cyanidation tests indicated high consumption of lime and cyanide and gold extraction of 79.4 and 82.7 percent. Water-leaching the ore after crushing to minus 10-mesh improved cyanidation considerably. Ex-tractions of 82.7 to 85.8 percent were obtainec1 with lime consumption of 6 to 7 pounds per ton of ore and cyanide consumptions of 1 to 4 pounds. Grinding the samples to minus 200-mesh followed by water-leaching and cyanidation gave improved extractions of 91-92 percent of the gold, but with slightly increased consumptions of lime and cyanide.

Jan 1, 1949

Improve face ventilation in mines with large cross-sectional entries. Approach Oil shale, salt, and limestone mines typically have large entries. Providing adequate airflow to the working faces of such mines for worker comfort, health, and safety is a substantial ventilation problem. If diesel equipment is used at the face or if a methane hazard exists in the mine, the problem becomes even more complex. To address this problem, a study was conducted under a joint contract between the Oil Shale Committee of the Colorado Mining Association and the Bureau of Mines. The study evaluated two face-ventilation concepts for large-entry mines. Improving Ventilation Two face-ventilation systems were selected for testing of an oil-shale mine, based on results of a cost/benefit analysis. The systems were a free-standing jet fan and a ducted fan operating in the blowing mode. The jet fan was spotted on the intake side in the mouth of the entry being advanced with final positioning, in or out, deter-mined by minimum recirculation. The ducted fan was also positioned in the mouth of the entry being advanced, with its tubing terminating 75 feet from the working face. The mine face entry was a dead heading 55 feet wide, 30 feet high, and 320 feet long. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF.) tracer gas was used to measure the performance of the two systems in diluting mine face pollutants including after-gases from blasting, hot diesel emissions, methane roof layers, and methane emitted from muckpiles.

Jan 1, 1987

By M. Howard Berliner

"INTRODUCTION During the last 4 months of 1943, the Bureau of Mines engaged in an investigation and exploratory drilling program in the area between the Coughlin and Galena Level mines near the town of Shullsburg, in Lafayette County, Wisconsin. The work was undertaken as part of a general Bureau of Mines investigation of the zinc-producing area of southwestern Wiscon¬sin at a time when an effort was being made to increase the production of metals important to the Nation's war program.The portion of the southwest Wisconsin zinc district in the immediate vicinity of Shullsburg and the Coughlin and Galena Level mines is well mineralized. The principal ore horizon is at shallow depth, and there is evidence that relatively extensive surface mining for lead was done over a period of many years. Underground mining' for lead and zinc has continued to the present time.The Bureau undertook an exploratory drilling program in the area immediately west and southwest of the Coughlin mine workings after thorough preliminary investigations and geologic studies indicated that such work would serve to guide operators in the development of new ore reserves needed for continuance of mining operations in that area."

Apr 1, 1947

By E. D. Gardner

"A fire hazard exists in nearly all mines. Progressive mining companies recognize this danger and take all possible precautions to prevent any conflagrations, but in spite of such safety measures, mine fires do occasionally occur and endanger life and property. In order to be prepared for such an emergency, miners are trained in the use of self-contained breathing apparatus and the necessary fire-fighting equipment is kept on hand. Men trained to wear breathing apparatus can penetrate workings full of poisonous fumes, but in order to successfully combat fumes or to rescue miners, the rescue crews must be trained in fire-fighting operations and know how to proceed with a minimum loss of time when they get to the scene of action.In order to perfect fire-fighting plans and to train men of the Globe-Miami district under conditions approximating those found at an actual mine fire, mine-reseue maneuvers were held at Globe, Arizona, on October 17-20, inclusive. The work was done under the direction of Orr Woodburn, director, and his associates of the Globe-Miami District Mine Rescue and First Aid Association. He was assisted by Albert Tallon, safety engineer, and Herbert Finnegan of the Old Dominion Co.; Herbert Hodson, safety engineer for the Inspiration Consolidated Copper Co.; A. 3. Martinson and J. M. Harrington of Car One, and F. D. Gardner of the Southwest Station, Bureau of Mines. Invitations were issued to mining men likely to be interested and representatives of mining companies from other districts were present and observed the work.The Globe-Miami District Mine Rescue and First Aid Association is maintained by the mining companies in the district and each company contributes to the organization's support in proportion to the total number of men on the pay roll. A central station*, between Globe and Miami, has been established and a truck with 10 sets of 2-hour self-contained breathing apparatus and the necessary accessories is always in readiness to respond to a call to any of the mines in the district. Besides being in readiness for emergency work, the station employees train men in the use of mine-rescue apparatus and in first-aid to the injured at the mines of the association. The Globe-Miami Mine Rescue organization has been developed to high point of, efficiency under Mr. Woodburn's direction and is one of the best in the country. The three largest mines of the district such maintain a crew of 15 men trained in the use of breathing apparatus, and other mines keep crews of 5 men each."

May 1, 1923

By Thomas L. Chapman

The San Manuel is a deposit of low-grade disseminated copper ore. It was brought to the attention of the government in October 1942 through an application to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation for a development loan, supported by a report by Henry W. Nichols. Nichols' sampling of two outcrops containing copper silicate and his geologic map indicated that a minable body of copper ore might be developed. The Federal Geological Survey was requested to examine the property. The Survey mapped the geology in March 1943 and cut a few check samples, which substantially confirmed Nichols' sampling of the outcrops and a few shallow workings. The geologists of the Survey recommended some test drilling by the Bureau of Mines. The property was examined by the author and Wm. D. Hughes, associate engineer of the Bureau of Mines on March 22 and 26, 1943, and a preliminary drilling campaign was recommended. Five shallow churn-drill holes totaling 1,480 feet were put down under the supervision of Chas. A. Kumke, one of the Bureau's engineers, from November 23, 1943, to January 13, 1944. This work indicated that the deposit extended deeper than the 350-foot depth attained in the deepest hole and might have very considerable areal extent. Additional funds were allotted, and the drilling contract was extended twice to a final maximum of 17,000 feet with 2,000 feet maximum depth of hole. Drilling was continued by the Bureau of Mines until February 2, 1945, when 15,844 feet of hole had been drilled. The Magna Copper Co. took options on this and adjoining property in September 1944 and commenced drilling with two machines. It also engaged the two contract drills used by the Bureau after it stopped drilling. It exercised its options in August 1945 and organized the San Manuel Copper Corp. to operate the property. That company is continuing to explore the ore body with six churn drills. Thomas Lyon took options early in 1945 on holdings adjoining the San Manuel property on the east and is operating two churn drills. Exploration up to the completion of the last holes started by the Bureau of Mines indicated a block of ore 3,100 feet long, 400 to 800 feet wide, and 500 to 900 feet thick, and averaging about 0.8 percent copper. Subsequent drilling showed that the ore body extends considerably beyond this block. The axis of the ore body strikes about N. 61° E. Copper minerals are disseminated in hydrothermally altered quartz monzonite and monzonite porphyry. Ore outcrops in two small areas over the northeast part of the block. Elsewhere the copper-bearing rocks are capped by Gila conglomerate, which thickens toward the west and south. Drilling showed that the ore is in a thick, tabular body with a steep dip to the south. The ore body lies near the surface in the northeastern part of the block. The south side of the block is much farther below the surface than the north side. There the upper part of the copper-bearing rocks is lightly mineralized, so that the hanging wall of minable ore lies deeper than the base of the conglomerate cap, which thickens southward.

Aug 1, 1947

By Thoms L. Chapman

The San Manuel is a deposit of low-grade disseminated copper ore. It was brought to the attention of the government in October 1942 through an application to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation for a development loan, supported by a report by Henry W. Nichols. Nichols’ sampling of two outcrops containing copper silicate and his geologic map indicated that a minable body of copper ore might be developed. The Federal Geological Survey was requested to examine the property. The Survey mapped the geology in March 1943 and cut a few check samples, which substantially confirmed Nichols’ sampling of the outcrops and a few shallow workings. The geologists of the Survey recommended some test drilling by the Bureau of Mines. The property was examined by the author and W. D. Hughes, associate engineer of the Bureau of Mines on March 22 and 26, 1943, and a preliminary drilling campaign was recommended. Five shallow churn-drill holes totaling 1,480 feet were put down under the supervision of Chas. A. Kumke, one of the Bureau’s engineers, from November 23, 1943 to January 15, 1944. This work indicated that the deposit extended deeper than the 350-foot depth attained in the deepest hole and might have very considerable areal extent. Additional funds were allotted, and the drilling contract was extended twice to a final maximum of 17,000 feet with 2,000 foot maximum depth of hole. Drilling was continued by the Bureau of Mines until February 2, 1945, when 15,844 feet of hole had been drilled. The Magma Copper Co. took options on this and adjoining property in September 1944 and commenced drilling with two machines. It also engaged the two contract drills used by the Bureau after it stopped drilling. It exercised its options in August 1945 and organized the San Manuel Copper Corp. to operate the property. That company is continuing to explore the ore body with six churn drills. Thomas Lyon took options early in 1945 on holdings adjoining the San Manuel property on the east and is operating two churn drills. Exploration up to the completion of the last holes started by the Bureau of Mines indicated a block of ore 5,100 feet long, 400 to 800 feet wide, and 500 to 900 feet thick, and averaging about 0.8 percent copper. Subsequent drilling showed that the ore body extends considerably beyond this block. The axis of the ore body strikes about N. 61º E. Copper minerals are disseminated in hydrothermally altered quartz monzonite and monzonite porphyry. Ore outcrops in two small areas over the northeast part of the block. Elsewhere the copper-bearing rocks are capped by Gila conglomerate, which thickens toward the west and south. Drilling showed that the ore is in a thick, tabular body with a steep dip to the south. The ore body lies near the surface in the northeastern part of the block. The south side of the block is much farther below the surface than the north side. There the upper part of the copper-bearing rocks is lightly mineralized, so that the hanging wall of minable ore lies deeper than the base of the conglomerate cap, which thickens southward.

Aug 1, 1947

By J. A. Herdlick

"INTRODUCTION The Bureau of Mines began a broad program of exploration of various proportion in the Pine Creek area of the Coeur d'Alene mining region in the fall of 1943. As a part of this project, exploring was done at theLittle Pittsburg property in 1945. The work included driving a 500-foot crosscut from the No, 6 level and drilling four diamond core drill holes to test the behavior of the Little Pittsburg vein at depth. This report presents the data obtained by the Bureau.ACKNOWLEDGMENTSIn its program of exploration of mineral deposits, the Bureau of Mines has as its primary objective the more effective utilization of our mineral resources, to the end that they make the greatest possible contribution to national security and economy. It is the policy of the Bureau to publish the facts developed by each exploratory project as soon as practicable after its conclusion. The Mining Branch, Lowell B. Moon, chief, conducts preliminary examinations, performs the actual exploratory work, and prepares the final report. The Metallurgical Branch, R. G. Knickerbocker, chief, analyses samples and performs beneficiation tests.The Bureau's exploration of the Little Pittsburg vein was one of the activities of the Albany Division of the Mining Branch, S. H. Lorain, chief. The project was started by R. M. Gammell, mining engineer, and was continued by the author and J. R. Reynolds, assistant mining engineer.The chemical analyses included in this report were made at Reno, Nov., under the direction of A.C, Rice, acting engineer in charge, Rare and Precious Metals Experiment Station, Bureau of Mines.The cooperation and assistance of the management of the Denver Development Co. is gratefully acknowledged, in particular that of C. E. Nugent, who made available much of the operational data included in this report."

Jan 1, 1947

By William H. Schiffbauer, Ph. D. Mowrey

Proximity warning devices can improve workplace safety by alerting workers when they are in a hazardous area near moving equipment. Industrial work sites often present extreme challenges to safety-based proximity warning devices. Many commercially available types of proximity warning sensors and systems can be rendered useless when covered with mud, ice, snow, ore, rock, and other material. The list includes radar, ultrasonic, capacitive, and visual types of sensors and systems. Addressing these shortcomings, NIOSH personnel have developed a patented active proximity warning system called HASARD (Hazardous Area Signaling and Ranging Device) which employs lowfrequency, low-power magnetic fields which are quite impervious to severe environmental conditions. A shapeable wire loop antenna which provides the marker of dangerous work areas, has been mounted on a continuous mining machine and was mounted inside 1.3-cm thick angle iron. This loop antenna was exposed to more than six months of active underground coal production, which included being covered by and scraped over with tons of rock, sprayed by a continuous stream of water, and immersed in thick mud. After six months the loop antenna showed signs of wear, but was still capable of performing its intended function. The HASARD system is now being applied to other industrial applications and is showing much promise, especially in harsh environments. This paper details the system, describes the tests that have been done, and mentions other areas where it can benefit the safety of industrial workers.

By L. C. IlsLey

A n'Ulllber or operators have installed f'lBJ!le-proot or so-called exploaion­ proot electrical outfits, under the impression that such equipments met· all of the reqiirements of the Bureau of Mines as regards safety, There a.re todq in gaseous mines a large nwnber of euipments that have not been approved by the Bureau ot Mines, and unless mod1f'iecl could not receive sucl1 approval.. These e qu.ipments represent in pa.rt the product of manufacturers whil ha.ve never submitted. equipments for insri?ction or tests. and iri pat types developed. previous to the safety work or the bureau. Sometiu.es saleimen advocate the use of unapproved. types in gaseous mines in place of Bureau of Mines approved outfits, the purchase price beini slightly less than approved types,

Sep 1, 1922

By James Paone

The Bureau of Mines conducted laboratory drillability studies on nine rock types using two mining-type percussive drills. Percussive-bit action was simulated by dropping a known weight on a rock sample to obtain a coefficient of rock strength for each rock drilled. While no single physical property of a rock is completely satisfactory as a predictor of penetration rate, coefficient of rock strength showed a better correlation with penetration rate than did other physical properties. Results also indicate that over the range of energies investigated, energy per unit volume in a given rock is independent of blow energy. A drillability index for the percussive system is proposed that utilizes the coefficient of rock strength test to determine energy per unit volume for a given rock which, along with the work rate of a given drill and the bit diameter, is used to predict the penetration rate as shown in the following equation: [R = 4P pD2 E, where R = penetration rate, in/min, P = work rate, in lb/min, D = bit diameter, in, and Ev = energy required to produce a given volume of rock, in lb/in3.] Laboratory tests indicate this method's potential as a simple and reasonably accurate method of predicting penetration rates with any percussive drill and bit combination.

Jan 1, 1969

By F. W. Smith

This paper is based largely on a study of experimental data obtained by the Bureau of Mines in its comprehensive 25-year survey of the carbonizing properties of American coals. Although the Bureau was interested in and conducted carbonization research-from time to time ever since it was organized in 1910 (1),4/ no systematic studies of the coke-, gas-, and byproduct-making properties of American coals were undertaken until 1927, when the American Gas Association appointed an advisory committee (2) to cooperate with the Bureau in developing equipment and techniques to obtain-data for the accurate assessment of the behavior of coals on carbonization. It was found, in general, that small-scale laboratory tests were unsuitable for the complete evaluation of the coking properties of coal; hence, larger pilot-plant-scale equipment was designed and used (3). It was decided that the scale of the test should be large enough to determine both the yield and quality of the products and yet small enough to maintain adequate control of the process variables (4). These considerations led to development of a carbonizing retort and furnace-of 80 to 200 pounds of coal capacity, suitable for operation at various temperatures up to 1,100° C. (2,0120 F.) and equipment for recovery and measurement of gas and byproducts. This apparatus and the standardized procedure for its operation became known as the Bureau of Mines-American Gas Association (EM-AGA) method or retort (5).

Jan 1, 1955

A general analytical solution of the effect of an inclined contact separating two media of differing electrical properties on a normally incident plane electromagnetic field has been given (Geyer, 1972). These solutions for the electromagnetic response at any observation point P(r, [u]) are given in the form of inverse Lebedev-Kontorovich transforms. Two modes of excitation are considered: (1) case where current density flows across strike of the contact separating the media of differing electrical properties (only Er , E [u] , and Hx differ from zero) and (2) case where current density flows along-strike (only Hr , H [u] , and Ex differ from zero). The electromagnetic fields in the frequency range of interest and for the rock conductivities under consideration are quasi-static in nature so that to a first-order approximation the horizontal magnetic field at the surface of the earth is constant and continuous across the discrete discontinuity in resistivity for case (1) above, and so that the tangential derivative of the horizontal electric field at the surface of the earth is constant and continuous across the discrete discontinuity for case (2) above. Of course, it is well known that where large horizontal gradients in conductivity exist, there also exists large anomalous components of the vertical magnetic field (Weaver, 1963). The recognition of such anomalous components and their magnitudes due to the presence of lateral resistivity changes in the overburden becomes very important in any wavetilt type measurement which may be used to locate a miner. When the lateral change in resistivity becomes quite large, the integral solutions (expressed as Lebedev-Kontorovich transforms) simplify considerably and allow ready numerical evaluation. Examples of the amplitude and phase responses of the radial electric, horizontal electric, and vertical magnetic field in the vicinity of the contrast in resistivity are shown in Figures 2, 3, and 4. Of particular significance is the fact that the anomalous vertical magnetic field is three orders of magnitude larger near the contact than far from the contact. This fact implies that where large resistivity contrasts do occur in the rocks overlying mine workings, that significant errors may be present in wavetilt measurements as used above for location criteria! Another observation insofar as the anomalous vertical magnetic field is concerned is the linear variation of phase as one proceeds away from strike in induction number (increased distance or frequency). For a pulse-excited communications system this phenomena would have a bearing on where the zero crossings would occur (i.e., 'pulse breadth') in the transient coupling between any given source-receiver configuration and at any given receiver site.

Jan 1, 1973

Various aspects of judgment and decision-making are key themes in this book. The model presented here serves as a loose structure for the chapters that follow this one. The notion of a model is introduced because growing research interest in the subjective aspects of group and individual behavior has led to a debate over whether judgment is a skill that can be understood scientifically. A related point of contention is whether such an understanding could lead to the development of methods for estimating people's ability to make good decisions during an emergency. There is some literature that supports the potential usefulness of this approach. However, little agreement seems to have been reached on how to define and operationalize even those basic concepts necessary to assess the soundness of decisions from within their environmental and group contexts [Jensen and Benel 1977; Godden and Baddeley 1979; Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982; Brecke 1982; Stone et al. 1985]. A look at the real-world process is clearly needed. The need to attempt a better understanding of judgment and decision-making properties stems from those occasions in the existence of an organization when there is a lot at stake. The process of decision-making (which is part of the exercise of judgment) has been analyzed in situations such as corporate takeovers [Janis and Mann1977], military combat [Begland1979], clinical emergencies [Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982], and aviation events [Billings and Reynard1984]. The fundamental assumption of these analyses is that, while there are untold successes, there are also notable numbers of failures resulting from decisions that can be ascribed to one or more errors in judgment. From a cognitive perspective, any person engaged in decision-making (either alone or in a group) is actively involved in a process characterized by certain elements. These were mentioned in chapter 1, but are reiterated briefly at this point: (1) detection of a problem, (2) definition or diagnosis, (3) consideration of available options, (4) choice of what is perceived as the best option given recognized needs, and (5) execution of the choice based on what has transpired [Flathers et al. 1982; Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982]. At any moment in this process, there are factors at play that have a large impact on one's ability to solve complex problems in a limited time: (1) an internal state [Hedge and Lawson 1979] is the sum of a person's psychomotor skills, knowledge, attitudes, etc.; (2) uncertainty [Brecke 1982] is caused by faulty or incomplete information received from the external environment; (3) stress [Biggs 1968; Jensen and Benel 1977] is generated both by the problem at hand and any background problem that may exist; and (4) complexity, as it is used here, refers to the number of elements involved that must be attended to. These variables are depicted in figure 5.1, and their relationship to each other and to an outcome is indicated. This schema is designed to suggest interaction, because while the judgment and decision-making process may be conceptualized as discrete stages, experience tells us that this is not the way people function in real-world situations.

Jan 1, 2000