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Introduction Surface mining is a business, and the objective of most businesses is to make as much money as possible within certain responsible constraints. Businesses normally measure their potential to make money by estimating the discounted cash flow rate of return on new projects or the net present value for ongoing projects. These estimators of profitability are calculated using the following well-known equation: [ ] where i is the year, n is the total number of years, A, is the after tax net cash generation in year I, r is the discount rate and NPV is the net present value. In its simplest form, when the value of r makes the NPV equal to zero, the discounted cash flow-rate of return (DCF-ROR) is defined. The maximum economically recoverable reserve is identified at the point where the NPV or DCF-ROR is at a maximum. Depending on the measure used (DCF-ROR or discount rate) for calculating the NPV, the definition of recoverable reserve will be different for exactly the same deposit. Maximization of the measure of profitability and the economically recoverable reserves should not be separated from the mining method and sequence of exploiting the reserve. The surface mining methods may involve multiple-pass development of the resource, mining to the ultimate limit in one pass or a combination of the two methods with backfill. Multiple-pass development When planning a multiple-pass mining operation, it is important to determine the width of pit expansions that are appropriate for a specific situation. Production personnel typically want wide, open work areas where operations can be set up to run at peak efficiency. While this is understandable, the trade-off between highly efficient production operations and an overinvestment in stripping should be carefully weighed. As long as safety is not compromised, a few cents per bank cubic yard increase in operating cost due to lower productivity by working in more confined spaces may well be offset by a decrease in the overall short-term stripping requirements. A mini study on productivity and cost should help quantify this cost before deciding on minimum phasing requirements. The bigger challenge associated with establishing smaller work areas is securing operations and management buy-in to marginally lower productivity when reporting results. When cost reduction is the important management goal and everyone is focusing on unit costs, one sometimes loses sight of the goal of total cost management and, even more importantly, maximum profitability. The first pit should be defined by the first grouping of recoverable mineral that has the highest after-tax unit value and forms a feasible mining unit. The assumed mining of the first pit should be followed by the assumed mining of the second most profitable practical pit or pit expansion. If this process of grouping and sequencing is followed until the profitability approaches zero, the general sequence required to extract the maximum economically recoverable reserve is identified. The curve in Fig. 1 is constructed for a rate of production, R, and a quality management strategy, Q, by calculating the NPV for a series of sequences, with each sequence assuming that the operations are terminated on successively lower profit pits. These values are plotted to form the curve in Fig. 1. If the operation ceases on a pit that has too high of a profit, opportunity is lost, and the NPV is lower than the maximum. The NPV curve peaks and starts to decline before the zero-profit pit is assumed mined. This occurs because the money invested in advanced stripping would have made more money invested at the discount rate than by mining the next pit expansion. Therefore, the maximum economically recoverable reserve is defined by the pit limit corresponding to the maximum NPV. There may be an opportunity to refine the definition of the "ultimate pit" around the maximum-value point. The precise definition of the ultimate pit early in the mine life may or may not be important today, depending on how far off in the future these limits will be reached. By the time an operation must decide on its last increment of economically recoverable reserve. much of the

Jan 1, 2000

By D. Harney

Accurate measurement, tracking, and planning are vital for efficient utilization of energy in any mining operation, the major focus of this paper. This can be done with a number of assessments: 1) accurately measure KWH usage and track peak demand periods first; 2) identify the electrical equipment that affects your usage and the conditions that require it to be running; 3) remotely monitor and control as much equipment as possible, especially larger pieces of equipment; 4) with your utility determine that you are on the most suitable rate for your usage profile, then understand how your utility company calculates your electrical bill; 5) recognize how production affects energy usage and utility costs; 6) keep historical records of everything you monitor; 7) make information, live and historical, available to everyone; and finally, with the knowledge of your equipment and energy needs, automate controls that you have identified to optimize your energy usage and time of usage.

Jan 1, 2007

By Terry A. Rightnour

Multiple seam mining is predominant throughout the central Pennsylvania Appalachian coal fields. Wide ranges in individual seam thickness, coal quality, and overburden characteristics are common throughout the region. On typical mining permits, ranging from 404 x 103 to 2023 x 103 m2 (100 to 500 acres), often as many as eight seams are concurrently mined, with each interburden requiring unique economic and environmental consideration in the mine plan. Specifically, this paper presents several planning tools and operational guidelines developed in response to current regulations for the special handling of potentially acid-forming materials as they are related to development and operation of multiple seam mines.

Jan 1, 1984

By William S. Alldredge

The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority(WMATA) officially came into existence in February 1967 after the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia joined in a com¬pact pursuant to Federal creative legislation signed the previous November to build a regional rapid rail transit system called METRO (1). The parent organization was the National Capital Transportation Agency (NCTA), a Federal agency, subject to Federal statutes and regulations. Soon after the completion of the transition from NCTA to the new "non-Federal" status of the Authority, the Board of Directors of the Authority formally adopted procurement policies and procedures (2). These are specific statements concerning competition by formal advertising for bids or by solicitation of proposals for negotiation, contracting authority, approval of awards, awards of contract modifications, and processing of claims and disputes. These policies and procedures are silent as to Federal procurement statutes and regulations. But because of the Authority's origin, the sensitive nature of the compact among the several sovereign jurisdictions, Federal financing of two-thirds of the costs, and the resultant surveillance by the General Accounting Office over staff operations, the Authority's procurement practices follow closely Federal regulations adapted to WMATA's needs. This is an important point and is the foundation of contractual relations between the Authority as the owner and its construction contractors. Various constraints and flexibilities of this arrangement with respect to excavation and tunneling contracts will be pointed out in the ensuing discussions.

Jan 1, 1974

By E. A. Schmidt

In 1962, while investigating the tungsten potential in the Thompson Creek area for Union Carbide Corp., Henry T. Eyrich obtained anomalous concentrations of molybdenum (up to 19 ppm Mo) from stream sediment samples collected along Pat Hughes Creek, a tributary to Thompson Creek. Follow-up investigations by Eyrich during the same year disclosed the presence of a hydrothermally altered and molybdenite-bearing granitic exposure in the headwaters of Pat Hughes Creek about 2.4 km (1.5 miles) upstream from the sample point. The altered outcrop measured about 549 by 305 m (1800 by 1000 ft), contained abundant northwest-trending quartz veins locally with molybdenite, and was overlain and surrounded by the Challis volcanic extrusive sequence of mid-Tertiary age. Eyrich's subsequent soil and rock chip geochemical sampling program over the altered outcrop area showed a general increase in the molybdenum content to the northwest toward the postmineral Challis volcanic cover. Over a distance of about 305 m (1000 ft), values in the altered intrusive rock increased from less than 5 ppm Mo to over 600 ppm Mo, with aconcomitant intensity of the hydrothermal alteration pattern. Based on these geochemical results and on preliminar; megascopic hydrothermal alteration studies, Eyrich correctly concluded that the altered outcrop is an erosional window and that molybdenum mineralization of sufficient grade could exist beneath the Challis volcanic cover some distance further to the northwest. His recommendation to test the area of potential molybdenum mineralization with several drill holes was, however, declined by Union Carbide in 1962. The property remained unclaimed until 1967, when Eyrich joined Cyprus Mines Corp. Acting on Eyrich's recommendation, Cyprus immediately staked 26 lode mining claims to cover not only the altered intrusive outcrop, but also the northwest trend of mineralization where it projected beneath Challis volcanic rocks. Eleven of these claims are now patented.

Jan 1, 1991

By Chris Howell

PotashCorp?s Aurora phosphate mine, in Beaufort County, NC, operates four low pressure boilers and four high pressure boilers to meet its process steam requirements. Maintaining these boilers is critical to meeting production demands. Processing phosphate ore into phosphoric acid requires large amounts of sulfuric acid and steam. Ore is mined from the phosphate deposit with large bucket excavators after 9 to 30 m (30 to 100 ft) of overburden is removed. The phosphate ore is mixed with water to make a slurry that is pumped to the mill. Elemental sulfur is burned in the presence of air to make sulfuric acid. This process is highly exothermic and boilers produce steam while cooling the process. The phosphate ore is reacted with sulfuric acid and the resulting products are refined into different grades of phosphoric acid for fertilizers, feed stock and food additives. Plant operators at the mine were challenged with boiler feed water that was high in silica and other contaminants. As a result, boiler operations were experiencing difficult, labor-intensive operations and equipment deterioration. This resulted in higher operating costs and diminished processing performance. The facility was operating an aged boiler feedwater pretreatment system that included warm lime softening followed by pressure filtration and a cation/anion/mixed bed demineralizer system. The demineralizer required frequent regeneration and chemical usage was high and costs were difficult to predict. Depressurized well water (DPW water), used for plant utility water and boiler makeup, is very high in silica, in the range of 60-70 ppm. Silica can form scale at pressures below 600 psig. Above 600 psig, silica starts to volatize, carrying over with steam to potentially form deposits on downstream equipment and processes. Mine officials decided to upgrade the boiler feedwater pretreatment system to a state-of-the-art reverse osmosis (RO) membrane system. This new system, which started up in March 2009, has improved operating performance and reduced water consumption and overall operating expenditures.

Jan 1, 2011

By T. C. Page, P. C. Gibson, M. A. Miller, J. D. Sell

[The Yarnell gold deposit in the Weaver mining district, Yavapai County, Arizona, occurs in a structurally controlled, hydrothermally altered zone in a 1700 Ma granodioritic intrusive. Both potassic and sericitically altered rocks around and above the low-angle, northeast striking Yarnell fault are known to host economic gold mineralization. A wider envelope of weakly-propylitic altered rock also occurs in this area. During mineralization, strong sericitization accompanied several stages of quartz (±adularia) veining, stockwork formation, localized silicification and potassic replacement, in association with deposition of specularite, pyrite (now oxidized) and gold. The footwall of the fault is also sericitically altered but poorly mineralized. Mineralization along the Yarnell fault continues both northeast and southwest from the main deposit, although the thickness of the zone and associated alter avian envelope diminish away from the orebody A sample of undo formed illite taken from the Yarnell fault zone was K/Ar dated at 69 + 1.6 Ma. This date reflects a minimum age for both mineralization and latest movement on the fault. Gold mineralization is accompanied by modest increases in Ag, As. Cu and Mo content. Both CO2- and H2O- rich fluid inclusions were studied and suggest mesothermal pressures and temperatures of formation for the deposit. Ninety-six reverse circulation holes and four diamond drill holes outline a bulk-minable mineral reserve of'4.1 million tons at 0.051 oz of Au per ton. An additional 2.7 million tons at 0.017 oz of Au per ton occurs in a low-grade zone above and subparallel to the main mineralized zone. Total calculated mineral inventory stands at 6.8 million tons at a grade of 0.038 oz of Au per ton, with a waste-to-ore ratio of 1.45:1. Column leach tests indicate that cyanide heap leach gold recoveries should exceed 70%.]

Jan 1, 1994

More than 1,200 professionals from the global tunneling and underground space industries are expected to be on hand for the 2009 Rapid Excavation and Tunneling Conference to be held at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, NV. The conference, set for June 14-17, is sponsored by the Society for Mining, Metallurgy, & Exploration, Inc. (SME) and the Construction Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers. The four-day conference will feature more than 100 technical papers in 19 sessions. Two one-day short courses are also planned, as are a pair of field trips. And the show?s exhibit will feature more than 120 of the industry?s leading equipment and service suppliers.

Jan 1, 2009

By Thomas P. Meloy

Floating "fines" differs from floating "sands" because the fines have a much larger surface area compared to their mass. The forces that arise from this large specific surface the key to understanding the behavior and treatment of fine particles. Though the nature of these forces is not thoroughly understood, enough work has been done to give a qualitative picture of what is happening in a flotation cell. It is the purpose of this chapter to re-examine some of the more, recent theoretical work and-to indicate its importance.

Jan 1, 1962

By Edward J. Harvey

Joplin, one of the most famous zinc mining camps of a bygone era, is today experiencing a healthy growth in manufacturing enterprises. Manufacturing requires water, and knowledge of its availability and quality often is the main factor in location of industry. For this reason in January 1964, on the suggestion of the former State Geologist, Dr. Thomas R. Beveridge, a study of the water resources of the Joplin District was undertaken as a cooperative effort of the Missouri Geological Survey and Water Resources now under the direction of Dr. William C. Hayes and the U. S. Geological Survey. The project area is in southwestern Missouri on the Springfield Plateau and is bordered on the west and north by the Osage Plains of Kansas and Western Missouri, (fig. l). Upland altitudes rise from 900 feet above sea level in the west to 1400 feet in the east. The countryside is rolling to moderately hilly and much is excellent farmland.

Jan 1, 1965

By R. Cohen-Alloro

Classical apparatus for granulometric separation generally have limited applications which are found either in the level of the size of separation or in that of the accuracy and the efficiency of the separation or in that of the rate of feed. In industrial practice, the classification of the products of coarse dimensions generally poses no problems. On the contrary, the separation of fine particles presents some difficulties, however the apparatus is used (mechanical classifiers, curved screens and sieves, hydrocyclones, etc...). These difficulties are due to hprfections of separation, rather high cost prices, and sometimes large amounts of recycled materials.

Jan 1, 1970

By W. Porter Place

The Trolleyphone was the first successful application of carrier current techniques to a DC power distribution system to provide voice communication between fixed points and moving locomotives and traveling cranes, This was a significant breakthrough because this not only in itself provided a useful new tool for industry, but the knowledge gained in the transmission of voice communication is paving the way for many other things, chiefly, remote control and indication systems which promise to have a far reaching effect during the upcoming age of automation. Once it has been established that we can communicate between men who operate machines, the next step will be to operate the machines themselves.

Jan 1, 1958

By Arthur W. T. Grimley

Hydraulic coal mining is being successfully practiced in China, U.S.S.R., Japan and Canada and in each country, excepting Japan where suitable sites are not available, the system is being expanded to either existing conventional mines or new mines. Productivity levels and economics at these mines are in all cases better than the productivities achieved in conventional mines in the same general localities. In the U.S.S.R. face productivities approaching 50 tons per man shift have been reported while in Canada the latest statistics show average face area productivity levels are in the region of 200 tons per man shift production monitor. In the United States hydraulic mining has not been actively pursued to the same degree and consequently there are no full scale hydraulic coal mines in operation or construction. Because many of the coal measures in the Western U.S.A. are generally somewhat similar to those being successfully hydraulic mined in Western Canada and parts of Siberia it is realistic to believe that successful hydraulic mines can be designed and developed in the Western U.S.A. Particularly if the vast technological base that already exists is used to improve on other people's ideas, systems, methods and equipment.

Jan 1, 1983

By Utku Gumus, Ertan Bostanci, Hanifi Copur, Ahmet Rüfai Bilgin, Ugur Altay

"Field observations on replacements of 12-inch constant cross-section double disc cutters in Tuzla Wastewater Tunnel excavated by an EPB TBM with 3.151 mm excavation diameter excavating hard rock are summarized. Cutter life is correlated to rock’s uniaxial compressive strength and Cerchar abrasivity index, and TBM operational parameters. Number of cutter replacements, average cutter replacement rates and types of cutter damages are summarized. The relationships between cutter life and rock properties and TBM operational parameters are analyzed by single variable regression method. Detailed analysis between chainages 1+200 and 1+982 km indicates that average cutter consumption rate is 35.7 m3/replacement (4.6 m/replacement). Cerchar abrasivity index and uniaxial compressive strength does not indicate any meaningful relationship with cutter life. Penetration per revolution and field specific energy might be used for predicting lives of constant cross-section double disc cutters. However, additional data is required to generalize the findings of this study. INTRODUCTION Cutter life / replacement and/or consumption rates in terms of cutter cost and replacement time loses is one of the most important parameters affecting excavation performance of mechanical excavators, especially of TBMs used very widely and equipped with usually disc cutters. Predicting cutter cost is a very important task in especially feasibility stage of tunneling projects. Basic parameters affecting cutter life can be classified into 3 general groups as geological and geotechnical, excavation machine (TBM) related, and operational parameters (Bilgin et al., 2013). The geological and geotechnical parameters are the most dominant ones among them. The machine related parameters should be arranged in accordance with the expected geological and geotechnical conditions for the best TBM excavation performance and minimum cost."

Jan 1, 2016

By Michelle Mangione, John Kuyt, Zili Li, Michael Mooney

"Twin bored tunnels are commonly used for a variety of road and tunnel projects throughout the world.A major component of these twin tunnel projects is the construction of connecting cross passages that provide emergency access between tunnels and space for tunnel service equipment. Cross passages can present significant geotechnical risk and technical challenges to a project – support systems must be considered for redistributing loads around the mainline tunnel openings and supporting new loading resulting from excavation activities. Additionally, cross passages pose risks to construction schedule and cost because of their sequencing at the end of construction, so mitigation of schedule overruns can be critical. By observing field instrumentation data records from completed projects, a better understanding of the force development in each temporary structure can be achieved with indication of which structures are the most critical to support ground loads.This article discusses the data obtained during the Brisbane Airport Link construction project, a road tunnel located in Brisbane, Australia. Strain gauge instrumentation data from the precast segmental lining and propped opening steel sets is presented with relation to the construction sequence and local geology. Interpretations and conclusions based on the observed trends are proposed, with several key mechanisms affecting the loading and unloading identified.Brisbane Airport Link project overview. The Brisbane Airport Link project in Brisbane, Australia, connects central Brisbane to the airport located northeast of the downtown with more than 7 km (4 miles) of twin-bore road tunnels, two lanes each, with several caverns, interchanges and access ramps constructed along the alignment to connect to other key routes in the city. The project was executed under a public-private partnership (P3) scheme, funded and operated by the consortium BrisConnections. The main contractors were a joint venture of John Holland and Theiss, while the design was carried out by Arup and Parsons Brinckerhoff.Construction of the tunnels was conducted using a combination of 17 roadheaders and two 12.5-m (41-ft) double-shield Herrenknecht tunnel boring machines (TBM) (Harding & Francis, 2013). The TBMs were used in earth pressure balance- (EPB) type closed mode for the initial portion of their drive, starting at the northeast end of the alignment. Tunneling started in soft ground, weathered rock, and mixed face conditions initially, progressing to competent sedimentary rocks as the drive continued. Support was accomplished using a 12.1-m (39.8-ft) diameter steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC) segmental lining installed behind the TBMs in nine segments + one key arrangement. The innovative design of these segments is detailed in the paper by Harding and Francis (Harding & Francis, 2013). Ancillary roads and underground interchange caverns were constructed by sequential excavation techniques using roadheaders, accounting for nearly half of the total underground excavations."

Mar 1, 2017

"There’s no fast way to add more than four miles of track, most of it underground, to the Sound Transit Link Light Rail system in the Seattle area. But increasingly busy traffic through a number of neighborhoods made it necessary. That’s the challenge a joint venture of several tunneling contractors faced when starting its portion of the $1.9 billion Northgate Link Extension in 2013, and the project is still keeping them busy three years later. Completion will mean just a 14-minute ride from Northgate to downtown for an extra 60,000 passengers by 2030. The transit lines will join 58 km (36 miles) of new and under-construction light rail lines running north, east and south from Seattle.Voters, tired of long commute times, approved the project, a key part of Seattle’s regional mass transit system, in 2008. The extension is part of a plan adopted by the Sound Transit board in 1996 to connect the region’s major activity centers. The Northgate project is meant to relieve one of the area’s most congested traffic areas by connecting the Northgate, Roosevelt and University District neighborhoods to existing routes including downtown Seattle and SeaTac airport.Sound Transit dedicated more than a quarter of the project’s estimated expense — $440 million -— to general contractor JCM Northlink LLC to handle the tunnel segment. JCM is a joint venture formed in 2013 between Jay Dee Contractors of Livonia, MI, Frank Coluccio Construction of Seattle, WA and Michels Corp. of Brownsville, WI. The contractors regularly collaborate on large-scale projects and brought experience working on a different section of the extension they completed in 2013.JCM project leaders knew immediately that the schedule would be demanding. They had to work around the clock, six days a week to meet deadlines. The extension runs through highly populated areas, meaning contractors had to follow strict city noise restrictions between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m. Plus, supervisors needed to manage the scheduling of nearly 250 employees to keep work running smoothly.“We had eight different operations and four different subcontractors trying to work in one tunnel,” said Chris Wood, JCM site project superintendent. “It’s important that we keep work linear. That’s the biggest challenge: keeping a path in and out so you can pour concrete, keep electricians and carpenters going, and accomplish everything else.”"

Jan 6, 2018

By VIVEK KASHYAP, Evody Tshijik Karumb, PATRICK TAYLOR

The partial reduction of zinc ferrite to zinc oxide and iron (II, III) oxide can enhance the leaching rate of zinc. Zinc ferrite has often been found as a major component of zinc residues and electric arc furnace dust. The Waelz process is an existing process for zinc ferrite processing, which requires a temperature of more than about 1200 °C to produce Waelz oxide containing ZnO. Since zinc residues have been deemed as a potential way for the extraction of zinc and other critical metals, it is important to analyze the reaction kinetics in the temperature range of interest. This manuscript discusses the chemical kinetics of zinc ferrite reduction by hydrogen gas. Several researchers studied the reduction of zinc ferrite with CO; however, unlike CO, the use of H2 gas as a reductant allows partial reduction of zinc ferrite even at low-temperature range (400–600 °C). Thermogravimetric analyses (TGA) experiments were performed in the temperature range of 300–700 °C with 10% and 30% H2, and the data obtained was analyzed using the isoconversional method of kinetic analyses. The standard models used for isoconversional kinetic analysis were chosen from literature and experimental data were fitted to determine the controlling mechanism and calculation of kinetic parameters of reduction of zinc ferrite. The rate of reaction was found to be increasing with an increase in temperature and partial pressure of H2 gas. The reaction could be divided into three stages, where reaction interface contraction was found to be the controlling mechanism at the initial stage of reaction. As the reaction proceeds, product layer thickness increases, and thus, diffusion was found to be the controlling mechanism. Roasting products obtained from TGA experiments were also characterized using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) to verify critical morphological details.

Jul 26, 2022

By R. Kalra

The current paper looks at evaluating the merits of large geared mills versus gearless driven mills by evaluating the following factors: The capability of currently available systems in terms of power and mill diameter Efficiency in terms of overall electrical power consumed vs mechanical output power Capital cost Running costs Cooling requirements in terms of air versus water cooling Installation and delivery time World?s largest geared drive ? 2x8500kW ? Wushan, China (operating) Among the many reasons that geared drives on large SAG mills are not favoured, is due to not having an efficient variable speed drive option (60 to 80% critical speed), which is required for process reasons. As technological advances have occurred quite rapidly in recent years, this paper uses the latest data in applying these comparisons and attempts to dispel some of the myths regarding Slip Energy Recovery (SER) and variable frequency drive technology on twin pinion drive systems. Early attempts to provide load sharing on twin pinion drives used primitive electronics which have since been developed to eliminate the problems encountered in earlier attempts. In particular, torque pulsations between the twin motors have been overcome using a higher number of devices (pulses) and better electronics. With successful operation of 2 x 6.5MW (Phu Kham, Laos) and three 2 x 7MW units under manufacture (Pascu Lama) and a further 40 projects worldwide, energy efficient Hyper Synchronous SER drives are now mature and ready for use on 2 X 10MW dual drive mills. Speed variation required is in the range of +/- 15% of synchronous motor speeds. VVVF drive packages from ABB and Siemens are also available for 2 x 10MW in low and high speed options. Dual hydraulic inching drives provide a much safer and convenient operation with the added advantage of locked charge detection.

Feb 27, 2013

By Brent K. Nelson, D. Lee Petersen, Charles R. Nelson

INTRODUCTION The Soudan 2 Cavern was completed in 1986 as a physics research laboratory located 713 m below ground in northern Minnesota. A paper in the 1985 RETC proceedings presented the background and planned usage for the cavern, site investigation and rock conditions, contract documents, and a bid summary. This is a follow-up paper describing construction of the cavern. The Soudan 2 excavation, 71.8 m long by 13.9 m wide by 11.6 m high, was excavated by drill and blast methods and mucked by crawler tractor and mine hoist. The excavation sequence consisted of twin top-heading pilot tunnels followed by removal of the top heading pillar and finally the bench. Various blasting designs were used to achieve adequate breakage and acceptable levels of blast damage control at the cavern perimeter. The geologic conditions exposed in the cavern, and the support needs of the rock encountered, are compared to the conditions interpreted from the site investigation. The influence of specific geologic features on cavern performance will be described. Initial support and final lining consisted of full length grouted rockbolts and reinforced and plain shotcrete. Trials were conducted with steel-fiber reinforced shotcrete and microsilica additives. The performance of the rock and support systems was tracked with single point extensometers, convergence measurements

Jan 1, 1987

By James M. Williams, Michael E. Zellars, Arthur J. Roth

INTRODUCTION Our present estimates of world P205 consumption for all uses show an average annual growth rate of approximately 1.9% per year. The estimated 1985 consumption of 41.5 million tonnes of P205 is predicted to increase to 57.1 million tonnes of P205 by the year 2005, which represents a growth from 157.7 million tonnes in 1985 to 217 million tonnes of phosphate rock in 2005. The present situation of oversupply and extremely weak phosphate product prices is, however, expected to continue in the short term and a normal supply/demand balance may not be achieved until after 1990. The growth in P205 demand, in conjunction with the higher cost of replacing low cost mines as they are depleted, will place economic pressure on world farm economies through the increased cost of phosphate fertilizers. The availability of rock supply is not the challenge; rather, it is the economics of new rock supply. This economic challenge of providing new rock supply is by no means limited to the United States. Even in centrally controlled economies, the cost of rock from domestic mines of marginal quality and economic viability, coupled with burdensome infra¬structure requirements, may result in tonnage additions at very high cost. Although government subsidies to offset higher production cost is a factor in some countries, world production in the next 20 years will be directed, if not governed, by economic factors. Established infrastructure, good quality reserves, and existing operations will provide a competitive advantage for new prod¬uction. It is our opinion that the current world supply structure will remain relatively stable through 2005, in that most of the traditional suppliers will retain supply roles. U.S. rock production, although it is not expected to grow beyond the present level, will still be a major contributor to world supply. Although dramatic changes within mining, fertilizer production and farm economics may appear disruptive, the current supply scenario will, in general, continue with the major issue being production economics. WORLD DEMAND Demand for P205 by region in the world has been estimated using projections of population, crops and yield, arable land, economic and other data as a basis for future demand projec¬tions by Blue-Johnson and Associates, our col¬laborators on a recent multi-client study. Non-fertilizer P205 demands were estimated in the same general manner. These estimates of future demand are based on an assumption of reasonable world political and economic stabil¬ity, debt repayment requirements maintained at workable levels, and resolution of problems in the agricultural economy to a point where normal supply/demand forces can interact freely to provide a basis for continued P205 supply. The results of these studies indicated an average growth rate of 1.9% per year through the year 2005. This growth could be as low as 1.5% per year, or as high as 2.5% per year. It is our opinion that the estimated rate of 1.9% per year is most probable. This moderate growth rate considers both the major economic constraints facing the world agricultural industry today and the general problem of affordability of fertilizers and other crop inputs. WORLD SUPPLY There are adequately defined world reserves of phosphate rock today to provide supply well into the future, even at much higher levels of demand than presently projected. Using the U.S. Bureau of Mines estimates, which are based on stringent criteria for definition of reserves, the present world reserves base is approximately 35 billion tonnes. Identified resources raise the potential for production by orders of magnitude. Potential resources based on geological trends, and including offshore deposits, would again result in orders of magnitude increases in rock resources. Morocco leads the world in reserves base with approxi¬mately 21 billion tonnes. The U.S. is second, followed by the Republic of South Africa and Russia. These four countries control about 87%

Jan 1, 1986