Search Documents

By Stewart Murray, Philip Klapwijk

INTRODUCTION Forecasting commodity markets is like predicting winners in a horse race: to get the answers right, one needs both luck and judgement. Commodity analysts bear some resemblance to racing tipsters as they try to convince interested parties that they have an inside track on which metal is going to win the great minerals race of the 1990s. Commodity analysts share some features with the gentlemen of the turf: • They influence other people in how to spend risk capital, • They don't put their own money at risk, and • If their tips consistently fail to deliver, then they end up looking elsewhere for employment. In order to find winners we need to know about the kind of race we are in and the strengths and weaknesses of all the runners. Miners are not interested in a five furlong sprint: their race is a long distance affair -- after all, the lead-times between discovery and start-up generally approach a decade for mines that will provide the staying power which leaders require in this industry. We need to look at the environment in which our commodities will be competing: in racing parlance, the going. Our equivalent is the economic background: just as some horses are at a relative advantage when the going is soft, so some commodities will do better than others if economic growth is sluggish. If we are going to pick the winners for the late 1990s, and as an industry, make the right investment decisions, nothing is more important than being able to forecast (with at least a semblance of accuracy) how and where the world's economy is going to develop in the next decade. In addressing the question of whether minerals are going to be leaders in the 1990s, this paper considers the idea that it will increasingly be the world outside the industrialised OECD that will provide the incremental growth in demand for mineral products. Economic growth in the Developing World is fundamentally different from that in the OECD, and the pattern of demand for materials in relation to economic output is much more favourable than in the OECD. If we are to forecast the future, we need to be able to understand the past, both in the boom times of the so called Golden Sixties and in the lean years that followed them. This should help us to decide whether the future is going to be like one or other of these extremes or, on the other hand, a return to normality. Having forecast the going, we can look at individual competitors. • Which are best placed to take advantage of the economic, social and industrial trends that we can now dimly foresee? • Which can resist the continued onslaught of the new materials and technologies? • Which of them will best weather the economic storms (assuming that recessions have not yet been abolished)? If we can provide answers to these questions, we will be well on our way to picking winners, i.e., the metals and minerals that will reward their owners with growing demand, steady (and high) prices leading to profits beyond the dreams of avarice.

Jan 1, 1990

By Bension Varon

Systematic projections of mineral supply, demand and prices are an integral part of the mineral sector planning process. As such, their primary value is not as prophecies but as devices for imposing discipline on thinking about the future and as means of ensuring consistency in policy decisions. Both the present and the broad outline of the future as presently discernable affect projections on specific minerals. The present world mineral situation reflects most prominantly the recent commodity cycle while our view of the future is largely shaped by perceptions and attitudes of policy-makers and the public over larger issues. Mineral commodities are of considerable importance to various countries. This in itself dictates a strong interest in systematic projection activities, the need for which is heightened by the volatility of certain basic variables affecting mineral demand in the world. It is useful for presentation purposes to discuss the various techniques suited for projecting mineral trends under three principal headings, viz., econometric modeling, systems analysis and technological forecasting. In addition, two specialized variants, input-output analysis and resource base modeling, are discussed. In each case, a brief description of the approach and some indication of its application to projections of mineral commodities are provided.

Jan 1, 1977

By V. F. Swanson

A petrographic study was made of the type and sources of mineral contamination occurring in Florida phosphate rock products. Emphasis was placed on contaminants in the screened rock (+1 mm), since this portion of the product undergoes no physical beneficiation except for scrubbing to remove slimes. Since iron and aluminum contents of the finished product affect the salability, special emphasis was placed on identifying types and sources of these contaminants and relating chemical composition to visual characteristics. Wavellite derived from the overburden was the major aluminum contaminant with some aluminum being included as secondary clay balls. Iron occurred as phosphates in the overburden and as colloidal oxides included in the phosphate pebbles. Chert and limestone contamination derived from the Hawthorne formation underlying the phosphate matrix.

Jan 1, 1972

The United States Geological Survey recently published Bulletin 690, which contains those papers dealing with zinc and copper. ores at Ophir, Utah; gravel deposits in Arkansas, with special' reference to their possible utilization as a source of hard pebbles for grinding mills; phosphate deposits in the Uinta Mountains, Utah; quicksilver deposits in the Phoenix Mountains, Ariz.; and manganese deposits near Butte and in Madison County, Mont. This bulletin is completely descriptive and contains important illustrations and maps.

Jan 9, 1919

By James E. Adler, Timothy C. Richmond

The Stillwater District is located in south central Montana approximately 75 miles southwest of Billings, the state's largest city. It lies along the northeast front of the Beartooth Mountains and is within the boundaries of the Custer and Galatin National Forests. The first white visitors in the district were the early trappers, who were soon followed by the prospectors. These early prospectors were drawn to the area by gold and silver discoveries at Cooke City in 1870 as well as by the large gossan formation in Verdigris Creek near the west bank of the Stillwater River and by several scattered smaller gossan exposures throughout the area. The first patented mining claims were recorded in September, 1886.

Jan 3, 1974

Capital, as represented by mineral resources, is being exhausted rapidly without possibility of identical replacement. The public must be discouraged from thinking-why worry about the bank balance so long as there are plenty of blank checks? Instead of each man, woman, and child being owners of a mineral capital of $89,000 as former Secretary Ickes once stated, they are really the guardians of a mineral reserve which, when harvested, cannot be reproduced. The proper use of this material is the basis of modern civilization and military power. The best American institutions cannot be maintained or transmitted to our children unless this trust is guarded. It is unfortunate that more attention has not been focused on the fact that this country is headed for a have-not status in the family of great nations if some- thing is not done to preserve its mineral heritage. It is the privilege of the United States now to champion and implement democracy because it is industrialized and can get at its raw materials. A high price is being paid every day in mineral depletion for the privilege. No one can eat his cake and have it too. The United States still must face world-wide economic competition and, perhaps, World War III. In the final analysis all wealth comes from the ground, whether plant, animal, or mineral. Value is in-

Jan 1, 1950

By Charles E. Locke

DEPRESSION in all lines of the mineral industry except gold, which began in 1930 and continued, even worse, through 1931, had its effect on ore concentration. Construction was limited to the completion of plants already begun. Every possible economy was adopted. Changes and improvements involving expense were postponed. Research was largely abandoned. Operations became highly efficient and costs were cut down, although this did not necessarily mean a lower cost per ton because of the greatly reduced capacity at which mills were run. Lower metal prices caused the operators to seek the optimum ratio of concentration and grade of concentrates looking toward maximum economic recovery; that is, net profit. In the crushing field no marked changes occurred. The Symons cone crusher for intermediate work is in use almost everywhere. Its manufacturers claim that 900 machines have been installed in 21 countries, replacing two previous steps of crushing and yielding a product sufficiently fine to form a satisfactory feed for rod mills and ball mills. A new Telsmith crusher has appeared which has curved jaws something like the Symons cone and consequently the same advantage as the latter.

Jan 1, 1932

By John Dasher, M. C. Chang

The Crucible mine in Pennsylvania, operating on Pittsburgh seam coal, is rated at 5000 tpd. The washing plant, built in 1943, is rated at about 400 tph, using hydroseparator boxes to wash the coarse coal (4 x 5/16 in.) and hydrotator units for the fine coal (5/16 x 0). It is generally acknowledged that gravity concentration equipment cannot be used efficiently to beneficiate coal finer than about 65 mesh. Before the present flotation circuit was installed, Crucible recovered its fine coal slurry, predominantly -24 mesh material, by passing it through a battery of five 14-in. and one hundred and ten 3-in. Hey1 & Patterson cyclones in parallel with a 75-ft Dorr thickener. About two thirds went to the cyclones and one third to the thickener. Underflows from cyclones and thickener were filtered, respectively, in one 12-disk Eimco and two 4-disk Oliver filters fitted with stainless steel cloth. The resulting cakes were added to the coarse metallurgical coal. The filtrates, overflow from the 3-in. cyclones, and thickener overflow were recycled to the coarse coal plant.

Jan 3, 1959

By K. S. Benson

DEPLETION is a subject of vital importance to the mining industry. Yet, in spite of its importance, its significance is not generally understood. The purpose of this discussion is to clarify the main aspects of the subject from the viewpoint of a metal mine taxpayer. To define the term depletion, it is necessary to distinguish among its various uses. In the economic or geological sense, depletion means the exhaustion of a natural resource. A mineral deposit is a wasting asset and once exhausted is nonrenewable. Millions of years were needed to produce an ore deposit, which may be consumed in a few years and which cannot be replaced except by the discovery of new sources of supply. The wasting asset feature of the mining industry has a vital bearing on the impact of the Federal Income Tax Law on this industry. This is recognized in the law by the various provisions dealing with the depletion allowance, and in this sense the term depletion has an income tax meaning. Depletion from the tax viewpoint means the statutory deduction from gross income designed to permit the return to the taxpayer of the capital consumed in the production and sale of a natural resource. The mining enterprise realizes income on the extraction and sale of minerals and a portion of the income realized represents capital consumed. As the resource is exhausted, the mining enterprise approaches the end of its existence unless new sources of supply can be acquired. Depletion from the tax viewpoint is a creature of statute with limited meaning and application and, in essence, is a method for amortizing the value of the primary asset of a mining enterprise. An example can best illustrate the significance of depletion from the tax viewpoint. Compare a manufacturing concern with a mining company. In computing taxable income of a manufacturing concern, consideraion is given to the cost of producing such income, the principal costs being capital investment for plant and equipment, labor, and raw materials going into the products produced. A mining enterprise, on the other hand, is faced with a different problem because its principal asset is the natural resource which it is producing. In computing its taxable income, consideration is given also to its capital investment for plant and equipment and the cost of labor; but in addition, recognition must be given to the fact that a portion of the proceeds realized on the sale of mineral represents capital. Without such recognition, the mining company would be taxed not on income but on capital and income, and Congress has never intended that capital be taxed as income. Thus, when depletion allowable is referred to in the mining industry, it means the statutory deduction allowable in computing taxable income of a mining enterprise. For guidance the appropriate provisions of the Internal Revenue Code, Income Tax Regulations, and the judicial decisions interpreting and construing them must be examined. It is important to identify and distinguish three methods of determining the allowance for depletion: 1—Cost depletion, 2—Discovery depletion, and 3—Percentage depletion. The basic method is cost depletion and in addition some taxpayers may be entitled to use discovery depletion and other taxpayers may be entitled to use percentage depletion. Discovery depletion and percentage depletion, however, are mutually exclusive and if a taxpayer is entitled to percentage depletion, he is not entitled to discovery depletion. By statute, a metal mine taxpayer is entitled to use cost depletion or percentage depletion, whichever produces the highest deduction. Thus, discovery depletion is merely of academic interest to such taxpayers and to most others. Briefly and broadly speaking, these methods of determining depletion may be described as follows: 1—Cost Depletion: Under this method, the allowable deduction for depletion is based upon the cost of the particular deposit to the taxpayer, unless the deposit was owned prior to Mar. 1, 1913, in which case the taxpayer may use the fair market value of the deposit on that date or actual cost, whichever is higher. This method is sometimes described as basis depletion or adjusted basis depletion, but in this discussion it will be referred to as cost depletion. 2—Discovery Depletion: Under this method, the allowable deduction for depletion is based on the fair market value of the deposit at the date of discovery or within 30 days thereafter and was originally designed to take into account deposits discovered subsequent to Feb. 28, 1913. 3—Percentage Depletion: Under this method, the allowable deduction for depletion is based on a specified percentage of the income realized during the taxable year from a particular property. As stated, the concept of depletion is based upon the exhaustion of a natural resource as distinguished, for example, from the concept of depreciation based on the exhaustion of property used in trade or business. From the tax viewpoint, depletion first became important in the administration of the Corporation Tax Act of 1909, which provided for an excise tax on net income. As soon as this act went into effect, mining taxpayers attempted to claim a deduction for depletion in computing net income although there was no specific mention of a deduction for depletion in the statute. The courts in these cases uniformly held that the statute did not permit an allowance for depletion in computing net income and also held that the provision permitting a reasonable allowance for depreciation did not include depletion. These early cases are quite significant because they establish the principle that the

Jan 1, 1952

By W. M. Myers

MINERAL Economics is the most recent profession to be recognized as a separate division of the mineral industries. It has originated from the increasing awareness of the importance of the economic aspects of industries concerned with discovery, extraction, and utilization of minerals. It is concerned with the interrelated fields of economics and technology. The individual trained in economics alone cannot qualify. The curriculum in the School of Mineral Industries at The Pennsylvania State College was approved in May 1946, and enrollment begun in September of that year. Due to the transfer of advanced students from other courses, particularly metallurgy and electrical engineering, it was possible to graduate the first seniors in June 1947. The next class was graduated in February 1948. From experience derived from placing these graduates in industry, and from information supplied by prospective employers, valuable data have been obtained in the organization and operation of the course of study.

Jan 1, 1948

By F. G. Tryon, F. E. Berquist

Our task is to make a prospecting trip over the whole field of mineral economics which other lectures of this series will explore in detail. The old timers who really understand mining warn us that its economic aspects are often neglected, and this we find to be true. We shall try to show that mineral economics deserves recognition as a separate branch of economic science with urgent and distinctive problems of its own; that to cultivate it requires a fusing of the viewpoint of economics with that of geology and engineering; and that the help of both economists and technical men is needed in exploring its problems and in training workers in the field. To save time, we shall pass over the familiar subjects of production, consumption, and distribution which bulk as large in the market analysis of the minerals as they do in other commodities. The existence of these problems may be taken for granted and attention centered rather upon those that differentiate mining from other branches of industry. What then is the case for an economics of minerals? Why set up a new compartment in a branch of knowledge that is already well subdivided? Do not the established principles of economic theory apply here as elsewhere? In pleading for recognition of mineral economics one often finds that

Jan 1, 1932

By Samuel H. Dolbear

THE value of a mine is basically dependent on its capacity to yield profits. Since the ore must be mined, treated, and sold, some of it in various future years. there is a risk involved as to future costs, selling price, and working conditions. It cannot be expected that the economic condition existing at the time of valuation will continue unchanged for long periods in the future. During the past 20 years, mineral production in the United States has been conducted under a changing economy in many respects more exacting than that applied to other businesses. There have been increased production incentives, technical aid, exploration of privately owned mineral deposits by government at federal expense, and liberal loans for development and equipment, with risk partially assumed by government.. Some of these benefits have been counterbalanced by price ceilings, consumption controls, and stimulation of competition from foreign producers who have been offered the same advantages extended to American operators. For the present, mines will operate under a government policy directed toward reducing federal aid and control. The tenure of this change will depend upon future elections and the status of foreign relations. War and threat of war are now of the most vital significance to the mineral industries. Other factors which influence cost of production, markets, and price of mine output might be classified as Acts of God or Acts of Government. In some countries expropriation and the difficulty of exporting earnings or investment returns are risks that must be considered by foreign capital. Recognizing that this retards American investment in foreign countries, the Mutual Security Agency offers insurance against such expropriation and guarantees the convertibility of capital and profits. Since it is impossible to predict with certainty either cost of production or selling prices of metals for long periods, some assumptions must be made as to profits in the future. The basic assumption must be that the price of the company's product will vary in proportion to changes in operating cost. There is often a lag in this reaction, however, for prices of minerals are generally more sensitive to declines and less sensitive to increases than are costs. This reflects in part the resistance of labor to downward wage revision and a corresponding alertness in realizing its share of price advances. Some labor contracts include automatic adjustments to metal prices. Notwithstanding the complexity of the, problems involved and the difficulty of weighing their effect on value, such risks may be appraised with reasonable accuracy and a rate of earnings adopted that is compatible with the risk. It is, of course, possible to revert to a yardstick of value such as the commodity dollar, which has been advocated from time to time, but while revaluation in 1933 disturbed public confidence, the theoretical gold dollar continues to be the standard of greatest stability. Its gain or loss in purchasing power is reflected ultimately in cost of production and selling price of the mine product. At present 35 dollars are allocated to one ounce of gold. Measurement of Risk In the application of the Hoskold and most other formulae, a yearly dividend rate commensurate with the risk involved is set aside out of annual earnings. If the risk is great, this rate may be 15 to 25 pct of the amount invested. The remainder is placed in a sinking fund invested in safe securities such as high grade bonds or conservative equities, and the interest or dividends from these securities are added to the sinking fund. The sum of these sinking fund payments and the compounded interest at the end of the mine life is taken as the value of the mine. Admittedly the decision as to the size of the risk rate is the most difficult element in valuation and one requiring the most exacting consideration. It is necessary to look years ahead in an effort to determine future costs, market prices, demand, competition which may develop, including that of substitutes, and other influences common to the mine and to the region in which it is situated. Another phase of risk is the enactment of unfavorable legislation, taxes, and what appears to be an alarming spread of nationalization and expropriation. Capital is sometimes borrowed from the government to finance strategic production. Such loans may be collectable only out of production and involve no liability otherwise. Valuation in these cases must recognize the effect of such a reduction in liability. Offsetting some of these risks are the possibilities of mechanization and other cost-reducing discoveries, improvements in mining and treatment methods, new uses for minerals and metals, and normal growth of markets. In this paper, the terms risk rate, dividend rate, and speculative rate are synonymous. Safe rate and redemption rate are also used interchangeably. These alternatives are used here because they are commonly found in the literature on mine valuation. In Michigan, the State Tax Commission has long employed a risk rate of 6 pct in its valuation of iron mines. There the outline of reserves is well established and operating costs and conditions are based on adequate experience. The following comment on rates appears in the report of the Minnesota Interior commission on Iron Ore Taxation submitted to the Minnesota Legislature of 1941.1 Most engineers agree that 7 percent for the specu-lative rate is "an absolute minimum". C. K. Leith in

Jan 1, 1954

By John J. Schanz

INTRODUCTION The two prior Seeley W. Mudd books on mineral economics devoted their final chapters to themes having to do with the future. In 1932, the last chapter in Mineral Economics8 was "The Future Value of Mineral Property" by J. R. Finlay. Both the first edition (1959) of Economics of the Mineral Industries7 and the slightly revised second edition (1964) closed with "Minerals and Man's Future" by Zay Jeffries. We are not inclined in this third AIME volume on mineral economics to ignore the tradition of the prior volumes. Moreover, it always is fitting and proper to close a book about the mineral industries by examining in a rather general way the challenges and uncertainties that are perpetually strewn in our path as we pick our way into the future. Unlike its predecessor volumes, which were written to acquaint the nonspecialist with the economic characteristics of mineral resources and to provide data about the mineral industries, this edition was also designed with the mineral economics student and practicing specialist in mind. Thus it is anticipated that it will be both a reference as well as suitable for use as a textbook. Consequently, this closing examination of our changing perspectives about mineral resources devotes some space to the past events and current status of mineral economics as a field of study. The fears and forecasts of the past can be a perceptive and usually deflating way to begin an examination of the future. As we look up and down the track of time from the 1975 platform, we find that many of the past views of the future were transient in character, others were imperfect in their prognosis, while others were based on fears that now seemed unfounded. But down through the years some of the observations or expressions of concern have a persistency which perhaps reflects some elemental characteristics of mineral resources. On these "truths" rest our contemporary understanding of the economics of the mineral industries. The uncertainties and priorities for the next 25 or more years, not surprisingly, have a somewhat different mix than those that seemed most compelling to our predecessors in 1932 or 1959. So it is appropriate that we review how the perspective of the mineral economist has changed over the span of a half century. In light of the particular interest of AIME on the role technology must play, it is fitting that we close with some observations on that topic. THE EMERGENCE OF MINERAL ECONOMICS AS A FIELD OF STUDY The publication of Mineral Economics by the AIME in 1932 as a Seeley W. Mudd volume marked the end of emerging interest in

Jan 1, 1976

By Elmer W. Pehrson

NINETEEN FORTY-SIX was an eventful year for the mineral industries. Perhaps the most significant development was the socialization of industry in Great Britain, initiated in 1945 but carried to fruition in the coal industry in 1946. On Jan. 1, 1947, management of the coal industry will be vested in a National Coal Board, responsible to the Ministry of Fuel and Power. A sum of £164,660,000 has been provided to compensate private owners for assets transferred to the Board. The British coal industry has been a problem for many years. Production has declined to a point where serious shortages of fuel for domestic needs have developed. Exports have dwindled to a small fraction of the previous trade. Costs have increased greatly, and quality has deteriorated. The industry's physical plant has not kept pace with the rapidly mounting wage scales in recent years. Some claim that the best and most accessible coal reserves of Britain are heavily depleted. The industry has been harassed by difficult labor problems, including bad morale among the workers and a shrinking labor force.

Jan 1, 1947

By Arthur Notman

THE year 1937 started off most hopefully for the metal industry but the prices for nonferrous metals declined after reaching a peak in the first quarter. E. & M. J. average prices for March were: -electrolytic copper f.o.b. refinery for domestic delivery 15.775c., lead 7.19c., and zinc 7.38c. There was the usual talk of shortages and the accompanying peak in the market prices of securities of producing companies. In retrospect it now appears that this was the peak of general security prices as well and of most commodity prices. On Dec. 1 copper was back to 11c., lead to 5c., and zinc to 5.5c. At the same time metal security prices had fallen to less than 40 per cent of their March highs. This has not been a purely domestic phenomenon. Metal prices have followed a similar course in London, in spite of the fact that in all three metals a tariff wall separates the domestic market from the foreign. There is nothing in the record to suggest that planning has so far had any stabilizing effect on prices. It is doubtful whether anybody will he found to claim credit for the planning. Strong evidence supports the conclusion that domestic demand for these and the other metals has been dammed back by the uncertainties confronting those who are considering long term construction commitments. This is particularly true with the public utilities, who are the largest consumers of copper and lead. If the plans were designed to maintain employment rather than to maintain political control of the Government, it would appear that they should be discarded. The course of the steel industry has been followed so closely in the press that no comment is necessary to indicate its similarity.

Jan 1, 1938

By Arthur Notmon

WORLD production of the three major nonferrous metals, copper, lead, and zinc, in 1939 will aggregate about 6,050;000 tons, compared with the all-time peak of 6,237,944 tons in 1937, and the previous peak of 5,679,442 tons in 1929. The United States will furnish 30.9 per cent of the total compared with 30.4 per cent in 1937 and 41.3 per cent in 1929. Table 1 gives the details of the three metals.

Jan 1, 1940

By AIME AIME

FOR the mineral industry, as for many others, the year 1944 brought to fruition the seeds planted in previous war years. Accomplishment in attaining ends in the production of minerals has given more time for the consideration of postwar problems, such as plans for resuming production for civilian uses and measures to prevent possible mass unemployment. The hectic atmosphere in production circles lessened during the latter half of 1943, conditions becoming static during 1944 as peak production rates were reached. Withdrawal of deferment of young men from the mining districts by Selective Service connotes that man power at the battlefronts became more important than the persistence of pressure for metal production. This is in contrast to the return of soldiers in 1943 to augment the labor ranks in the mining districts. The year ended in the midst of changing needs. Over-all metal production in the United States in 1944 will record a lessening, compared with the previous year owing to labor shortages which affected both development work and ore output.

Jan 1, 1945

Established as a Division December 15, 1948 Evan Just, Chairman Richard J Lund, Past Chairman Granville S. Borden, Vice-Chairman J K Richardson, Vice-Chairman S H Williston, Vice-Chairman Allan Matthews, Secretary-Treasurer National Security Resources Board 17th and Pennsylvania Ave, N W Washington 25, D C

Jan 1, 1952

Established as a Division January 15, 1932 John C Calhoun, Jr, Chairman O Cutler Shepard, Vice-Chairman J R Van Pelt, Jr , Past Chairman Thomas A Read, Secretary-Treasurer Dept of Mining and Metallurgical Engrg University of Illinois Urbana, Illinois

Jan 1, 1956

By Charles H. Fulton

FOR some time it has been thought that there should be > closer relationship between the members' of the Institute engaged in education in the mining schools, the mining, metallurgical, ceramic, and geological departments of universities, and the members of the Institute actually engaged in the production of mineral products and the operation and direction of works. The American Society of Chemical Engineers and the American Ceramic Society have for some years past devoted especial attention to the educational matters of their respective fields. The Engineering Foundation, representing the great engineering societies of the country, is deeply interested in technical education and maintains a Committee on Educational Research.

Jan 1, 1932