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By Gregory Dybalski

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the forecast capability of the econometric model of the cobalt industry1/ as utilized by the Federal Preparedness Agency. Forecasts from this model are illustrated from the premise that the leading producer continues production of cobalt. An alternate forecast is presented where the model structure is altered to reflect the condition where the leading producer leaves the market. All estimations and forecasts presented here are shown for illustrative purposes. The cobalt industry is highly concentrated; one company, owned by the Zaire government, accounts for approximately three-fifths of world production. The cobalt supply outside of Zaire is determined by the level of activity of copper or nickel markets, as cobalt is mined as a by-product of copper or nickel. The demand for cobalt reflects a diversified usage pattern; cobalt is used mainly in heat and corrosion-resistant materials, high- strength materials and permanent magnets. According to 1974 U.S. consumption data superalloys accounted for 22%, magnetic alloys 18%, cutting and wear-resistant materials 13%, and catalyst 7%. Foreign consumption is probably similar in terms of usage categories, but the relative order of the categories is in variance.2/ The Cobalt Model The cobalt model's object is to explain consumption, supply and price movements by utilizing statistically estimated equations. Central to the econometric model is the role of Zaire as the profit-maximizing "dominant firm". Zaire sets the price that is most profitable for itself. The price of cobalt depends on industrial demand, production of other firms, and net exogenous purchases, such as government

Jan 1, 1977

By P. A. Young

The historical background of on-strand cooling is given, together with a resume of recent practical developments. Laboratory test procedures are then considered in detail, for both productivity and quality parameters, with particular reference to the design of the Ravenscraig No 3 machine (Scotland). A heat transfer model is presented for a porous sinter with propagating cracks. The influence of cooling/sintering area ratio, sinter strength, granulometry, return fines, coke consumption and FeO levels are examined in relation to economics. A detailed comparison of capital and running costs for two different strands, designed for identical duties, but with off or on-strand cooling, is then given.

Jan 1, 1977

By K. J. Liles

The Federal Bureau of Mines conducts a comprehensive test program on clay and shale at the Tuscaloosa Metallurgy Research Center. All samples are subjected to standard preliminary ceramic tests, which include firing formed briquets at temperatures ranging from 1,000° to 1,250° C to identify firing range and colors, and quick-firing to determine bloating characteristics. Materials that shop potential as structural products are further tested after either extrusion or dry-pressing. If the quick-fire test is positive, bulk samples can be fired in a rotary kiln to evaluate their potential as light- weight aggregate A number of miscellaneous tests also can be conducted if requested. These tests determine properties such as refractoriness (pyrometric cone equivalency), oil-bleaching characteristics, oil absorbency, viscosity for drilling-mud applications, sand-bonding properties for foundry usage, and pelletizing characteristics.

Jan 1, 1977

By P. B. Ritter

The feasibility of redesigning and adapting the all- secondary-explosive, low-voltage, electric safe detonator for use as a delay detonator has been demonstrated. Experimental results have shown that operational characteristics can be adjusted to allow direct competition of safe delay detonators with commercial delay blasting caps. Five different experimental delay period models have been developed and tested. Test results are given and results are evaluated. Subsequent simplified and improved designs for practical and economical mass production are described. Design concepts to meet Bureau of Mines voltage withstand, incendivity, and spark sensitivity requirements are included. Recommendations are made for experimental procedures to ready the safe delay detonator for mass production and extensive use in mining and other industries.

Jan 1, 1977

All companies and individuals who embark on a business venture incur costs. For the most part these costs can be conveniently categorised, firstly into capital and operating costs and then into the various elements of these major cost centres. Although the nature of expenditure naturally differs as between industries certain broad cost types are characteristic of all heavy industries. The capital costs of gaining access to an orebody, equipping a new mine, building a treatment plant and perhaps refining and smelting facilities are likened to capital expenditure by a manufacturer on new plant and equipment required for an expansion or new product innovation. Similarly the day to day costs of labour and materials employed in the running of a mining operation can be likened to similar costs in other heavy industry. There is another group of costs that are not so easily categorised. Most industries incur unavoidable costs that do not form part of the direct or capital costs of physical production. These costs include taxes and other payments to government and research expenditure. The mining industry has a particularly heavy burden of non-production costs and it is the objective here to highlight and analyse a few of them. These costs are exploration expenditure, infrastructure expenditure, royalties and income tax. This is not to suggest that these are the only major non-production costs that the mining industry needs to bear. The industry may incur significant costs for environment protection, land tenure maintenance and on liaising with Government on a wide variety of matters. It is for reasons of subject manageability that the list is confined to the four costs mentioned. For the mining industry, exploration and infrastructure expenditure, royalties and income tax have several distinguishing features. Firstly, they are generally proportionately large costs. Exploration and infrastructure expenditure for example, could well exceed mine development costs. Depending on how royalties are levied, they may be very high in relation to profits earned and many in fact exceed profits. Secondly, except for income tax, they are costs that are generally not payable by other industries. Exploration expenditure is in some respects comparable with industrial research and development. However, because mines are wasting assets exploration is necessary for survival, and it is likely to form a larger part of costs per dollar of profits or sales than R&D. It can therefore be said that exploration is of far more significance to the miner than R&D is to the typical industrial company. Furthermore, unlike exploration expenditure, R&D results are transportable and patents permitting, transferable. The infrastructure burden that miners must carry is unique to the industry. Whereas urbanised industry is not usually liable for the capital cost of power, water, transport, townships and community facilities, the miner must finance these projects himself. Neither the payment of royalties, nor of course, income tax are unique to the mining industry. Royalties are more properly described as a unique charge on some primary industries but however described, they are a charge that manufacturing and service industries do not have to pay. Whilst we all pay income tax, the mining industry's uniqueness derives from the special problem that the industry has in arriving at annual net income in view of the capital intensity of the industry, partly due to expenditure on infrastructure, the indefinite life of capital equipment and its unpredictable residual value, funds expended on exploration and long lead times associated with a mine development. The third distinguishing feature of these costs is that, with the possible exception of exploration expenditure, they are heavily influenced by the policies and actions of Government. As such the industry has a responsibility to promote the industry by emphasising its potential to improve national product including exports and by requesting that the Government provide for the industry in its long term planning and seek its co-operation to prevent the industry incurring inequitable penalties relative to other industries.Finally, exploration and infrastructure expenditure are significant because they are front-end charges on a project. When due allowance is given the time value of money and the deferment of income from a mining development to which they relate, exploration and infrastructure expenditure assume greater importance than the raw money expenditure suggests. For all these reasons, exploration and infrastructure expenditure, mining royalties and mining income tax are worthy of detailed study. This is the purpose of this paper. The objective is to examine the determinants that give rise to them and provide some thoughts on their impact on on-going and potential mining developments and, where relevant, to make some suggestions as to how they may be minimised.

Jan 1, 1977

By Wilbur I. Duvall

This paper discusses general principles of underground opening design based on the concept that with the necessary input data regarding the geology of a site, the physical properties of the rocks, the in situ stress field in the rock and the general geometry of the underground openings, the rock formation can be classified into six major categories which are useful for design purposes. Using simple theories for the criteria of failure for rock In compression and tension, general elastic theory for stress concentration around openings and In structures, beam theory for stability of roof rock, and elementary inelastic theory for creep phenomena, basic design techniques are outlined for the various rock classifications. The need for field evaluation of the theoretical design is stressed and some general techniques that should be used in these field evaluations are discussed. Where appropriate, the need for additional studies and research is noted.

Jan 1, 1977

By Robert G. Lundquist

This paper is a brief summary of work done on mining applications of high energy projectiles. Full scale field testing already completed has used cannons to drive a tunnel, drill large diameter holes, do secondary breakage in an open pit mine, and scale loose rock from inaccessible pit walls. Other applications are suggested in driving development openings, particularly raises. The method will be economically feasible only if cheap liquid propellants are developed.

Jan 1, 1977

By D. W. Hutchinson

One of the most important problems facing the coal industry today is the disposal of refuse from the coal preparation plants in a safe, economical, and efficient manner while complying with all legal requirements. The most commonly used refuse disposal method has been landfill/impoundment. In this method, the coarser refuse fractions are disposed of by layering and compaction into a landfill. The fine coal slurry refuse fraction is impounded in a dam constructed of a portion or all of the coarser refuse fractions. The failure of an impoundment at Buffalo Creek, Saunders, West Virginia and the sliding failure of a coarse refuse pile at Aberfan, Wales, England, resulted in an evaluation of refuse disposal methods by various regulatory agencies as well as coal producers. The result of this evaluation was the promulgation of Federal regulations dealing with the preparation, operation, and final abandonment of coal refuse disposal areas. As a consequence of these regulations the use of the landfill/impoundment method of disposal became in some cases economically unfeasible or technically impossible. At the time of the promulgation of the new Federal regulations, United States Steel Corporation was in the process of designing the Cumberland preparation plant. As a result of the new regulations

Jan 1, 1977

By M. Allingham

This paper examines the contribution which econometric methods may be expected to make to the specification of commodity agreements, and how in turn computer methods may help in this. Starting from the specification of a model, the paper examines four activities: estimation of the unknown parameters; analysis of the properties of the model; simulation experiments with the model; and control of the model. In each of these activities the basic methodology is outlined, and the contribution of computer methods assessed.

Jan 1, 1977

Drilling is one of the most, significant cost components of any stoping or develop- ment operation. Two of the factors contri- buting to the drilling cost are the supply and servicing of consumable items such as drill rods and bits. The purchase cost of consumable items can be controlled to a large extent by using the correct balance of quality and price. However, the service cost is a less easily controlled factor and it is in this area where potential savings are significant. In June, 1976 a six month trial period was commenced at The Zinc Corporation, Limited and at New Broken Hill Consolidated Limited with two separate suppliers supplying and ser- vicing all longhole drilling parties (one supplier for each mine) at a guaranteed cost per metre. As a result of this six month trial period a new contract was commenced in December, 1976 with one supplier supplying and servicing all longhole drilling parties at both ZC and NBHC for a twelve month period. This concept has now been in operation for over twelve months and has proved to be a significant means of slowing down the increas- ing cost associated with drilling operations.

Jan 1, 1977

By Michael Rieber

An analysis of coal slurry pipelines was presented in our May 1976 study, Route Specific Cost Comparisons: Unit Trains, Coal Slurry Pipelines and Extra High Voltage Transmission (4]. The present study extends that analysis. The earlier work included technical and economic cost descriptions of the black Mesa and ETSI pipelines as well as some hypothetical pipeline routes. Water problems, safety and environment, required resources, and labor impacts were discussed at some length. Additionally, pipeline impacts on competing railroads, slurry-rail comparisons, and cost escalation. were analyzed. The difference in pipeline profitability to an owner-operator versus a promoter-builder was suggested. These aspects are not redone in this study. Here, we present a synopsis of the previous results and a general statement of coal slurry pipelines. Extensions of the arguments are presented where they appear warranted. New material is developed in the area of pipeline branching and tapping. This would appear necessary if slurry pipelines are to function as more than private lines; if they are, for example, to be responsive to common carrier requirements.

Jan 1, 1977

By J. Boldy

This paper is an attempt to place Canadian Precambrian volcanogenic deposits in perspective, by examining and compiling data regarding certain neglected fundamentals of size, grade, value, frequency distribution and spatial density. The discovery roles played by various exploration methods are compared and contrasted, and. using empirical methods, the probabilities of discovery are discussed, combined with the use of an effective 'cost-per-target' program. From these basic observations, realistic exploration judgments may be made. Using similar methodology, this format may be applied to other types of deposits. Precambrian volcanogenic deposits occur in a natural geometric progression in size. They number 110, of which 70% are pre-producers, producers or past-producers. These deposits are bonanzas and generally have a 'net pre-smelter' value of between $43 and $62 per ton. The statistically typical deposit is that which occupies the modal position, has 400,000 tons of ore, a value of $20 million and occurs with a frequency of 40%. A median deposit has 1.4 million tons of ore, a value of $70 million and occurs with a frequency of 15%. An upper-decile deposit ha s 13.3 million tons of ore. a value of $750 million and occurs with a frequency of 6.5%. The major, mid-upper-decile deposits have a minimum of 50 million tons of ore, a value of $3 billion and occur with a frequency of 4%. Five major volcanogenic deposits occur in the Precambrian and account for 54% of production. This contrasts with 55 deposits (all below the median) which account for 3.9% of production.

Jan 1, 1977

By Olof Löfgren

PART 1 INTRODUCTION All modern pelletizing plants are equipped with either the drum or the disc circuits. Choice of one or the other circuit is not simple and it is desirable to establish a firm basis for such a task. For a meaningful and a fair comparison it is necessary to have the two systems working in parallel in the same plant with the same concentrate under the same supervision. Furthermore, the comparison has to be based on a defined green ball quality and size distribution. BALLING CIRCUITS The LKAB straight grate plant at Malmberget, Sweden, was started up in Septenber 1973. It was designed for a 2.5 Mton annual capacity and was equipped with five balling drum circuits. During the first year of operation it was found that the induration plant had the potential for a higher capacity which required increased balling capacity. For this purpose it was decided to install a balling disc circuit complete with a roll screen. The reasons for selecting a disc were space limitations and LKAB's desire to gather experience on balling disc circuits. The disc circuit was started up in 1975 and was run in parallel with the balling drums in the same plant and with the same raw material and under the same operating personnel. The necessary conditions for a comparison were thereby fulfilled. The data for the size distribution and quality of the green balls were obtained on random sampling during one year of operation, so that all the variations which appear in a commercial plant are covered.

Jan 1, 1977

By Jeffery L. Kohler

The research and development of a pattern recognition system which can predict incipient failures and safety hazards in the mine power network is described. An examination of mine electrical safety hazards revealed they are often related to the electrical equipment down-time experienced on mine sections. Based on this, a method is proposed that can improve both production and safety, without compromising either. Equipment failure modes are examined to illustrate how the ultimate failure can be predicted for enough in advance to allow a convenient and safe repair, followed by a discussion of actual monitoring system performance. Finally, the paper is concluded by projections of the system's utility to industry.

Jan 1, 1977

By Peter F. Steidl

As part of the Bureau of Mines methane control program, the Upper Free-port coalbed was studied in Fayette County, Pa., where this coalbed lies about 650 feet below the Pittsburgh coalbed and contains the largest remaining reserves of any coalbed in the county. Its estimated recoverable reserves in Fayette County are between 670 and 800 million tons. Coal and overburden isopachs, structure and joint pattern maps, and a fence diagram were prepared using data from gas and oil exploration logs and coal outcrops. These maps will aid in determining the need and/or feasibility of degasifying the Upper Freeport coalbed in the study area. Much of the coalbed in this area is under 600 to 1,400 feet of overburden. By correlation with data from the Pittsburgh coalbed, the gas content at depths of this order is estimated to be between 140 to 300 cf/ton of coal.

Jan 1, 1977

By D. W. Hayley

The rapid expansion of exploration drilling with anticipated production facilities for oil and gas in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories has created a demand for granular construction materials. This paper discusses the technique adopted and experience gained by the authors from several major resource evaluation programs in this remote area. The first part of the paper describes a methodology for deposit identification, logistics of helicopter and ground-based drilling operations and the sampling difficulties which are unique to permafrost: soils. The second part describes the exploitation of a large glaciofluvial deposit at YaYa Lake on Richards Island. Granular construction material is sparse in the delta region relative to projected demand. Exploitable sources of granular materials for aggregates or construction borrow are found in glaciofluvial deposits of Pleistocene age or in outcrops of Paleozoic bedrock. Glaciofluvial landforms can be located by reference to published surficial geology maps coupled with airphoto interpretation. Preliminary assessment of these features in a large region is most economically carried out during the summer months with a drill that is transportable by helicopter. Once prospective borrow pit sites are identified, a detailed ground-based winter drilling program must be undertaken to establish aggregate quality and quantity, and to provide information on natural features which could affect development. The glaciofluvial terrain has been highly modified by the formation of massive ground ice within the gravel deposits. This presents some unique pit development problems which are not encountered in a normal bedrock quarry operation.

Jan 1, 1977

By Donald Towse

Geothermal energy can substitute for and compete with other fuels, but until now it has been used only in special situations where it costs much less than alternate fuels. Geothermal heat is expected to be developed where it can: (1) compete with alternate fuels, (2) replace scarce fuels, (3) be more environmentally acceptable, or (4) is especially adapted to local needs. Economic problems in development include the often high capital costs of wells and gathering systems and the long lead-times required for electric generating plants. The large investment and long payout times for large industrial uses adversely affect the economics.

Jan 1, 1977

By Clarence O. Babcock

This Bureau of Mines publication presents guidelines for mining near surface and underground bodies of water. The guidelines were based on information developed under contract in three phases of study, as follows: (1) Collection and documentation of data from worldwide sources; (2) application of existing guidelines, foreign, Federal, and State, to case histories of previous inundations; and (3) development of recommended guidelines for underground coal mining near bodies of water aimed at maximum efficient utilization of underground coal resources consistent with minimizing inundation hazards. While the contract guidelines were for the mining of coal seams, they may also be used for mining any tabular sedimentary mineral deposit. Tables are given for the determination of the size of coal pillars needed; for other bedded deposits, similar tables could be determined based on their strength properties.

Jan 1, 1977

By T. P. Meloy

Traditionally the mineral and mining engineers have characterized particles by sieving and-settling. Within the last decade, with the advent of the scanning microscope, entirely new experimental and theoretical approachesl-10/have been taken to minutely define the particle surface. This approach depends upon a hypothesis which takes advantage of the recent developments in automatic micro-scopes which can acquire large amounts of information in a short time and the new computational techniques which rapidly reduce the information to meaningful, practical data. Historically sieving and settling are the oldest sizing techniques known. Sieving by square screens, shown on Figure l-A is a common, current practice for sizing particles both in the laboratory and in production. A woven cloth is used which usually has square openings. The size particle that will pass through the opening dependent on a complex relationship of its morphology. As can be seen in Figure l-A, neither the width nor the height of the particle is determined by sieving. From square screens one and only one parameter characterizing the particle size is obtained, that parameter is the radius of the sphere that will just pass through the given sieve opening. A variation of square mesh screen is the slot screens, shown in Figure 1-B. Here another measure more closely associated with the height of the particle is obtained. Once again, one and only one parameter is associated with the particles' shape.

Jan 1, 1977

By Michael P. Hardy

The report described improvements and applications of the Hybrid Computer facility. Improvements implemented under U.S.B.M. Contract H0252035 included expansion of the capability to model nonlinear seam behavior, installation of a color video output display monitor, and further development of software capabilities. To demonstrate the capability of the system, firstly, the influence of nonlinear seam behavior response to the occurrence of coal mine bumps was fully investigated and secondly, the effect of improper mining sequence on bump occurrence was demonstrated. In addition, the system was applied to the analysis of a series of practical coal mine problems. Mines in three coal seams were analysed to investigate the parameters which contribute to the occurrence of coal mine bumps.

Jan 1, 1977