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By Sukumar Bandopadhyay

The Marine Mining Technology Center (MMTC) was authorized by an act of the United States Congress in 1996. The act established several marine minerals research centers in the U.S., including one at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. The Alaska MMTC is funded through the Minerals Management Service of the Department of the Interior and concentrates its research in the Artic seas region. Recent research projects at the MMTC include, among others, a geographic information system (GIS) application to the gold placer deposits offshore Nome, Alaska, a marine gold placer reserve definition model using a neural network, and development of an expert system model for submarine tailings disposal (STD) planning and decision-making. Although geostatistics remains the most prevalent method used today for ore grade estimation, researchers have made numerous improvements over the years for accurately predicting grades of ore using various other estimation techniques. As a result, the neural network has recently emerged as an alternative to geostatistics for grade estimation purposes. A neural network is a non-linear, model-free estimator that is well-suited for noisy and/or sparse data environments. Neural networks perform best with non-linear spatial data, contrary to the stationary assumption of ordinary Kriging techniques. In the marine placer ore reserve definition model, the neural network technique was used to estimate placer gold reserves offshore Nome. This study demonstrated the utility of neural network modeling over other traditional ore reserve estimation methods, especially for high cut-off grades. Some of the relevant issues of neural network modeling were also addressed in the study. In testing, the neural network produced results that were close to those from geostatistical techniques including Kriging, polygon, and inverse distance methods.

Jan 1, 2004

By Sukumar Bandopadhyay

The Marine Minerals Technology Center (MMTC) was authorized by an act of the United States Congress in 1996. The act established several marine minerals research centers in the U.S., including one at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. The Alaska MMTC is funded through the Minerals Management Service of the Department of the Interior and concentrates its research in the Arctic seas region. Recent research projects at the MMTC include, among others, application of a geographic information system (GIS) to the gold placer deposits offshore Nome, Alaska, development of a marine gold placer reserve definition model using a neural network, and development of an expert system model for submarine tailings disposal (STD) planning and decision-making. Although geostatistics remains the most prevalent method used today for ore grade estimation, researchers have made numerous improvements over the years for accurately predicting grades of ore using other estimation techniques. One such technique, the neural network, has recently emerged as an alternative to geostatistics for grade estimation purposes. A neural network is a non-linear, model-free estimator that is well-suited for noisy and/or sparse data environments. Neural networks perform best with non-linear spatial data, contrary to the stationary assumption of ordinary Kriging techniques. In the marine placer ore reserve definition model, the neural network technique was used to estimate placer gold reserves offshore Nome. This study demonstrated the utility of neural network modeling over other traditional ore reserve estimation methods, especially for high cut-off grades. Some of the relevant issues of neural network modeling were also addressed in the study. In testing, the neural network produced results that were close to those from geostatistical techniques including Kriging, polygonal, and inverse distance methods.

Jan 1, 2005

By Michael J. Cruickshank

MICHAEL J. CRUICKSHANK SENIOR AUTHOR Marine mining is a very broad field. It encompasses every facet of terrestrial mining but with the unique addition of a superimposed liquid overburden, which is itself mineralized. It is the unique aspects of marine mining that are discussed in this section. In keeping with the times, a systems approach is taken in the presentation of the material. The environment is first described, and this is followed in logical sequence by the common requirements for working there, then the mineral exploration phase, the exploitation and, finally, the operational restraints imposed by man and nature. Free use is made of tables and figures from original and published works and extensive listings of reference material round out each section. The title "Marine Mining" was chosen in preference to ocean or underwater mining because it is broad enough to include oceans, beaches and inland seas. The selection of terms sometimes may seem odd but they have not been chosen arbitrarily. All things are reduced, where possible, to basics and defined. Applying systems terminology, the word "platforms" is used in the functional sense and includes not only airborne, waterborne and fixed platforms, but man himself in his capacity as a working diver. If there is confusion it is often because of familiarity with a word in a context personal to the reader. For example, what does extraction mean to you-or mining or exploitation? Cost data have been interspersed throughout the section whenever they could be obtained. The use of these data should be tempered with understanding because no two situations are alike and improvements in marine technology are constantly being made. The names of individual authors are listed with each subsection. Where no name is given, the responsibility has been that of the senior author. Acknowledgment is sincerely made to the U.S. Bureau of Mines, and latterly the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, for encouraging and supporting the preparation of the work ; to the secretarial staff at the Marine Minerals Technology Center and to Donald Eisman for editing. To the many other contributors who may not be listed by name, grateful acknowledgment is also due. It is hoped that the chapter will be useful to the practicing mining engineer who suddenly is assigned to marine work or to the experienced marine engineer who is equally suddenly assigned to mining work. It is not possible to put "everything-you -need-to¬-know" into one section, but. the very full bibliographies at the end of the text should adequately fill in for those who wish to know more. 20.1-THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT Marine mining is set apart as a separate discipline by the marine environment. The following subsections describe the environment from the point of view of the physicist, the chemist and the geologist. The interrelationship of these disciplines with the economic mineral potential of the oceans and seas is apparent from the description of the marine mineral resources. The marine environment is an extremely complex natural phenomenon with which the marine mining engineer must learn to live. It can be the source of his wealth or his frustrations and sometimes both. It can never be ignored.

Jan 1, 1973

By Michael Cruickshank

All life on Earth relies on the ocean and yet the ocean is 95 percent unexplored, unknown and unseen by human eyes,? said Paula Keener, director of education programs for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s (NOAA) Office of Ocean Exploration and Research. ?To better understand, manage and protect the ocean and its resources, NOAA believes it is critical to use the best technology to explore, discover, inform, educate and motivate? (MTS, newsletter, January 2011). In the last few decades, our understanding of the global mineral resource base has been drastically changed by some surprising new developments. The potential for commercial minerals per unit area in the oceans and seabed appears to be similar to that of the terrestrial lands. Thus, almost three-fourths of the global mineral resources are in, or under, the sea and are virtually undeveloped. The area of the Pacific seabeds alone is greater than the total area of the global lands. Half of the global seabed minerals are now controlled by nation states within their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). The other half is controlled by the United Nations (UN) through the International Seabed Authority (ISA) within the ?areas beyond national jurisdiction? known as The Area. Thus, the Law of the Sea, ratified in 1994, has resulted in the largest transfer of control of natural resources in the history of mankind. This paper was prepared by the Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration (SME) Committee on the Offshore Technology Conference for the SME Board of Directors and other interested parties. As the premier professional society for the mining and mineral community in the United States, with a history dating back to the 19th century, SME?s mission is to encourage and support young men and women engineers in the minerals industry, provide the services they need, improve the image of the industry, strengthen the networking among global industry professionals and engage in proactive collaboration among industry, government, academia and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The accomplishment of this mission can be strongly advanced by highlighting what is probably now the most significant development in the history of the modern minerals industry - the exploration of the marine environment and the understanding of the potential for the development of the minerals therein.

Jan 1, 2011

By J. Robert Moore

Introductory remarks will be made by the speaker, chiefly on recent and current developments in the industrial, agency and academic sectors that relate to the status of marine mining and mineral exploration programs and to recommendations for strengthening and continuing these programs. Subsequent to these brief comments, a selected panel with representation from industry, academe and government will address the following related topics: 1) development and objectives of new centers for marine mining technology, 2) cooperative R. and D. programs between academe and the user groups, 3) arrangements for specialized training and student instruction that will provide for educational components, and 4) funding and other support for implementing new centers and new programs. The panel discussion will be open to all UMI participants and whose contributions will be both solicited and encouraged.

Jan 1, 1986

By Charles L. Morgan

For the past twenty years or so the oceans of the world have been transformed in the minds of most Americans from the ultimate and nearly infinite receptacles for sewage and other wastes to an almost sacrosanct and threatened last refuge of Mother Nature from man on Earth. While this general movement has helped somewhat to moderate the flows of pollutants into the oceans, it has had severe and sometimes devastating impacts upon various attempts to develop seabed mineral resources. Marine mining proposals have been easy targets for attack. In most cases, they have short or no histories and involve prototype or first-generation methods. They commonly lack major financial backing, and do not command significant public support. Their constituents are limited. Opposition movements to such proposals have been able to evoke strong support by appealing to this "last refuge" image and depicting mining operations as the final assault. In mounting these public appeals, the movements obtain visibility and support. Because of the small and sometimes tentative status of the constituencies which support particular proposal s, the potential liabilities for opposition movements are minimal.

Jan 1, 1989

By J. C. Barker

Alaska, with about 74% of the US continental shelf, is largely unexplored for placers in its vast shallow marine waters. Nevertheless, there are numerous occurrences of marine minerals including gold, platinum, and cassiterite. Offshore dredging has recently begun in the Nome area. State and Federal agencies are preparing additional acreage for leasing. With 76,200 km (47,300 miles) or 54% of the US coastline, Alaska is a vast, largely unexplored frontier for shallow-water marine placers. Despite the general lack of mapping and only sporadic past prospecting, many prospects are known and a major mining operation for gold has recently begun offshore of Nome. Due largely to the demonstrated success of the Nome operation, the US Minerals Management Service is preparing to conduct a lease sale of additional acreage further offshore from Nome. And future sales are being considered elsewhere by both the Federal and state leasing agencies.

Jan 1, 1990

By Ira Brotman

The Virginia Port Authority and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are partnering to construct the Craney Island Eastward Expansion (CIEE) to meet the dual purpose of extending the life of Craney Island as a dredged material management area and providing land for a state-of-the-art marine terminal. The over 500-acre (200-hectare) expansion provides additional upland dredged material capacity for the Hampton Roads Harbor by constructing perimeter dikes, that once filled, will provide land for the development of a container terminal. In the winter of 2010/2011 the first stage of sand fill was placed, followed by the installation of approximately 12 million linear feet (MLF) (3.6 million linear meters, MLM) of marine PVDs. With over 36 MLF (10.9 MLM) of PVD required to complete dike construction the project will be one of the largest PVD installation project in the U.S. his paper details the challenges associated with the construction of the cross dikes, in particular the design, testing, installation and monitoring of prefabricated vertical drains (PVDs) installed overwater to depths of over 130 feet (40 meters) for foundation improvement in the insitu very soft Norfolk Clay. With expected settlements of 20?30 ft (7-10 m) and 30 percent average strains, the discharge capacity of the PVDs was of particular concern. Laboratory data is presented showing the magnitudes and variability of discharge capacity under different confining pressures in both a straight and buckled condition. The method of installation and monitoring of the marine PVDs in open water included developing a specialized barge and sophisticated positioning and data collection system to verify installation location, depth of penetration and track quantities. An observational method, including material testing, detailed surveys, periodic in-situ testing, and instrumentation, was utilized by the project team to assess the project?s progress and allow for validation of consolidation and strength gain rates and magnitudes.

By Mohamed Mekkawy, William W. Wheaton, Ira Brotman

"The Virginia Port Authority and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are partnering to construct the Craney Island Eastward Expansion (CIEE) to meet the dual purpose of extending the life of Craney Island as a dredged material management area and providing land for a state-of-the-art marine terminal. The over 500-acre (200-hectare) expansion provides additional upland dredged material capacity for the Hampton Roads Harbor by constructing perimeter dikes, that once filled, will provide land for the development of a container terminal. In the winter of 2010/2011 the first stage of sand fill was placed, followed by the installation of approximately 12 million linear feet (MLF) (3.6 million linear meters, MLM) of marine PVDs. With over 36 MLF (10.9 MLM) of PVD required to complete dike construction the project will be one of the largest PVD installation project in the U.S.This paper details the challenges associated with the construction of the cross dikes, in particular the design, testing, installation and monitoring of prefabricated vertical drains (PVDs) installed overwater to depths of over 130 feet (40 meters) for foundation improvement in the insitu very soft Norfolk Clay. With expected settlements of 20–30 ft (7-10 m) and 30 percent average strains, the discharge capacity of the PVDs was of particular concern. Laboratory data is presented showing the magnitudes and variability of discharge capacity under different confining pressures in both a straight and buckled condition.The method of installation and monitoring of the marine PVDs in open water included developing a specialized barge and sophisticated positioning and data collection system to verify installation location, depth of penetration and track quantities. An observational method, including material testing, detailed surveys, periodic in-situ testing, and instrumentation, was utilized by the project team to assess the project’s progress and allow for validation of consolidation and strength gain rates and magnitudes."

Jan 1, 2017

By Charles L. Morgan

"In 2012 the International Seabed Authority (ISA) established nine “Areas of Particular Environmental Interest” (APEIs) for consideration as future Marine Protected Areas to help preserve the biodiversity of life on the seabed within the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) between Baja California, Mexico, and the Hawaiian Islands. The CCZ is believed to have a high potential for future seabed mining operations. Areas under active exploration contracts in the CCZ, plus the areas currently reserved by the ISA for exploration by developing nations, comprise about 1.9 million km2 of seabed area. The currently designated APEIs consist of more than 1.4 million km2 of seabed. Each APEI includes a central primary conservation area of 200 X 200 km, surrounded by 100-km buffer areas on all sides. The 100-km buffers are intended as a very conservative spacing between the primary conservation area and potential mining activities in adjacent seabed. The selection of these nine 400 X 400 km APEIs, has been criticized as possibly not including sufficient representative habitat similar enough to the potential mining areas (identified currently as the exploration contract and reserved areas administered by the ISA within the region) to ensure protection of the biodiversity that might be impacted by mining.An area to the east of the existing exploration contracts and reserved areas is known to have substantial mineral deposits; it is very similar to the adjacent exploration contract areas in its geology, environmental setting, polymetallic nodule abundance and nodule metal content. Because it is located in the northeastern extreme of the CCZ, this area is also likely to have relatively high densities of benthic life, compared with benthic communities further westward within the CCZ. Many options for the designation of this APEI are possible, but the area designation must accommodate the boundaries of the Exclusive Economic Zones of Mexico and France.This paper discusses why the selected region in the eastern extreme of the CCZ is a good candidate for designation as a new APEI.Keywords: polymetallic nodules, Marine Protected Areas, Clarion-Clipperton Zone, Areas of Particular Environmental Interest"

Jan 1, 2017

By S Norman

The Water Delivery Alliance (WDA) was established to design, construct and commission the pump station and desalinated water delivery pipeline to link the desalination plant on the Kurnell Peninsula (constructed by others) with the existing distribution network at Erskineville, Sydney, Australia. The WDA consisted of McConnell Dowell Corporation Ltd (Macdow), Bovis Lend Lease Pty Ltd (BLL), Kellogg Brown and Root Pty Ltd (KBR), Worleyparsons Ltd (WOR), Environmental Resources Management Group Inc (ERM) and Sydney Water Corporation (SWC).Sydney’s Desalination Project is one of the initiatives to secure Sydney’s water supply against the effects of climate change, population growth and drought. The desalination plant, 100 per cent powered by renewable energy, can supply up to 250 million litres of water per day (mld), which is up to 15 per cent of Sydney’s water needs. The project involved the construction of an 18 km pipeline with an ultimate capacity of 500 mld to accommodate any future increase in the output of the desalination plant.The Alliance procured three full-face tunnel boring machines (TBM) from Herrenknecht AG to construct the 6.5 km of tunnel that would provide a conduit for the DN1800 welded mild steel cement mortar lined (MSCL) pipeline at a number of locations along the route. Nineteen shafts and 16 tunnels were required to complete this work.Crucially one of the TBM drives involved construction of a tunnel into Botany Bay under protected marine life habitats; enabling the connection of the MSCL water carrier pipeline into the dredged section of pipeline underwater, approximately 800 m off-shore in Botany Bay.This paper details the retrieval of the 17.4 m long TBM from the ocean floor upon completion of the Botany Bay tunnel allowing for subsequent use on the Project. Elements covered in the paper include the 835 m tunnel, design and construction techniques for the tunnel and recovery, and details of the methods used to install the DN1800 water carrier pipeline.

Mar 8, 2011

By Carla J. Moore

The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), Marine Geology and Geophysics Division and co-located World Data Center-A for MGG archives and distributes global marine sediment data from U.S. and international sources. NGDC is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. NGDC offers a variety of digital marine sediment data sets including sediment descriptions, textural analyses, geochemistry, paleontology, paleomagnetism, and well logs. Some data sets are compiled by outside sources and sent to NGDC for distribution; many are received under exchange agreements and through the World Data Center system. Other data sets are compiled at NGDC, frequently in cooperation with other government agencies or academic institutions. One of the best examples of the latter is the Index to Marine Geological Samples, or "Core Curators' Database".

Jan 1, 1993

By Brian D. Bornhold

A comprehensive multi-disciplinary marine geological survey of northwestern Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia, Canada was conducted by Offshore Survey and Positioning Services Ltd. of Vancouver, B.C. on behalf of the Geological Survey of Canada; Energy, Mines & Resources Canada, Pacific Geoscience Centre, Sidney, B.C. Canada during October 1984 and July 1985. The aim of the survey was to map both the surficial geology and geomorphology in order to identify and evaluate the nature of the nearshore sedimentation and recent tectonics including stability (slumps and scarps) seafloor faults (frequency and displacements) and both the classification and consistency of soil type boundaries and properties. Data was acquired by utilizing conventional indirect applied marine geophysical techniques including side scan sonar, precision echo sounding and complimentary soil sampling. During October 1984 a total of 320 line kilometres of data including 180 soil samples were acquired. During July 1985 a total of 300 line kilometres of data were acquired including 150 soil samples.

Jan 1, 1985

With the exeption of the United States, Canada and Russia, oil has not been around in quantity near world centres of population. Production: in Western Europe is insignificant. Japan is without production as are Australia, Southern Africa, India; Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and China. The United States is, however, a large importer of crude oil. The very fact that oil is produced generally away from centres of population means that it has to be carried by sea to the area in which it is required. There is, therefore, a constant flow of oil around the world in very definite channels.

Jan 1, 1962

By K Williams, M Pender, T Honeyands, T Krull, D McCallum, R Holmes, R Orense

Bulk cargoes, including iron ore fines, must be shipped according to the rules agreed by the member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). One critical safety measure is the transportable moisture limit (T?ML) required for Group A cargoes (cargoes that may liquefy). A number of shipping incidents involving iron ore fines from India, where liquefaction of the cargo was suspected to be the cause, have brought the issue of iron ore fines T?ML into the spotlight. Extensive research has been undertaken by the major iron ore producers from Australia and Brazil to support the IMO in developing regulations for the shipment of iron ore fines. To this end, iron ore companies sponsored the AMIRA P1097 project to establish a modified T?ML test approach specific to iron ore fines. The project was undertaken by TUNRA Bulk Solids, CSIRO’s Centre for Bulk Solids and Particulate Technology and the University of Auckland, with project leadership provided by Creative Process Innovation. This program of work supported test work findings from the IMO Iron Ore Technical Working Group, which reported its findings in September 2013.The purpose of this paper is to present the major research findings from the AMIRA P1097 project, which includes a review of the original T?ML methods, highlights of the research that supported the new iron ore fines T?ML method and an outline of current iron ore T?ML requirements.CITATION:Williams, K, Honeyands, T, Holmes, R, Orense, R, Roberts, A, Pender, M, McCallum, D and Krull, T, 2015. Maritime bulk cargo transportable moisture limit requirements for iron ore shipments, in Proceedings Iron Ore 2015, pp 399–410 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 13, 2015

By D. Waite

The Chairman opened the session by wondering why so few papers on Maritime Structures had been received for this conference. Perhaps because the marine environment is so hostile and the access so difficult that engineers tend to be more prudent about new ideas and designs. Dennis Waite noted the number of grey hairs in the room - grey hairs which could be equated with experience gained the hard way. He hoped that this experience would be passed on in the discussion period of this session. The Chairman was delighted to welcome two authors from China, Mr Sun and Mr Liang. He was most grateful on behalf of the conference for their efforts both in preparing their papers and for being able to present them. He regretted that Messrs Noce and Fedolino were not able to present their paper and then welcomed Mr Christensen from Denmark who would present the first paper.

Jan 1, 1991

By A. Roy MacLean

"In the Maritimes, there are twelve coal areas. From east to west, these include the Sydney coal field, the St. Rose - Chimney Corner, Inverness, Mabou, Port Hood, Pictou, Colchester - Debert, Springhill, Joggins - Chignecto, Beersville, Lake Stream, and Minto. The first eight are in Nova Scotia while the remaining four are in New Brunswick.In all these areas, the coal was formed during the Carboniferous period, which existed some 300 million years ago. However, within this period not all coal formation took place during the same time. There were three main intervals, which occurred at the time that the Riversdale, Cumberland and Pictou groups were laid down (Hacquebard, 1970). The oldest coals are those of the Riversdale Group. These coals were of rather limited extent, and only a few mineable seams are present, particularly at St. Rose -Chimney Corner and Port Hood. From these two areas only 2 M tons have been extracted, and 'measured' resources of 7 and 9 M tons respectively remain. The Cumberland Group coals are confined to Cumberland County and include the coals of Springhill and Joggins River Herbert -Chignecto. Some 43 M tons have been removed and only 7 M tons of 'measured' coal remain, with an addit10nal 39 M tons of 'inferred' resources. However, there are additional resources at Springhill, which will be discussed in more detail in a later section. The coals of the Pictou Group are the youngest and the most abundant, both in actual number of seams and in regional distnbution. These coals were formed during the Westphalian C and D, a time during which the main coal deposition in Europe also took place. Here belong the coals of the Sydney, Inverness, Mabou, Pictou, Debert, Beersville, Lake Stream and Minto fields. Their total production amounted to 469 M tons or 91 % of the Maritime total of 514 M tons. The remaining resources of all Pictou Group coals have been calculated at 254 M tons of 'measured' coal and 949 M tons of 'inferred' coal. As can readily be seen, the bulk of both past production and remaining resources occur in the Sydney coal field. The Sydney figures represent 73% of total production, and 87% of total 'demonstrated' resources in the Maritime Provinces. Next to Sydney, the Pictou coal field has been the greatest producer, with 59 M tons; it also has the second largest 'measured' resources, amounting to 25 M tons. However in terms of 'inferred' coal resources, the Mabou coal field, ~ith 140 M tons, ranks second to Sydney."

Jan 1, 1985

By G. D. West, J. D. Purdue

"Marked Ball Wear Testing (MBWT) employs identified grinding balls which are placed in an operating mill for a period of time, retrieved from the mill, and then measured to determine the amount of wear experienced. This is an excellent method to evaluate the relative differences in the wear rates of various grinding ball materials and/ or manufacturing process variables simultaneously and under actual production milling conditions. This paper outlines the methods of ball identification, testing and evaluation procedures and discusses the strengths, weaknesses, and proper application of marked Ball Wear Test results. INTRODUCTIONThe consumption of grinding media in the mineral processing industry represents a substantial cost to the comminution process. Grinding media is most often found to be the second highest consumable cost next to energy. To determine the selection of the most cost effective media, one must determine the specific wear mechanisms present in a given grinding application and decide which media system addresses these mechanisms most economically.A MBWT has definite advantages over other methods used to evaluate the relative consumption rates of grinding media. It allows the comparative testing of a large number of different ball types under identical operating conditions in a very short period of time. In addition, production wear rates can be accurately predicted directly from MBWT results. Typical MBWT test periods are in the order of 350 to 700 operating hours for high wear rate application and upwards of 2000 or 3000 hours for low wear rate applications. These times are much less than the 5000 or more hours required to purge a mill of the incumbent ball charge (to convert it to the test ball) and then provide even a minimal test period in which to conduct a full production test, for just one type of ball. Under production test conditions the evaluation of competitive product or the development of improved grinding balls is necessarily slow."

Jan 1, 1991

By J. M. Barker

The concept of global-market access through transportation efficiency is a concept whose time has come. The basis of this approach is customer satisfaction—the higher the better. But beyond what seems almost too logical is the question of how to achieve this market access. All industrial mineral exporters face stiff competition. Factors include proximity of competitive industrial minerals and substitutes, pricing pressure, political and cultural differences, currency fluctuations, communication problems, trade finance restrictions, and transportation imbalances. The following discussion will focus on transportation activities in global competitiveness, but the producer with the larger offering of services will often make the sale, not necessarily the low-cost producer (Cook, 2002). Some key concepts for global-market access are “the market concept,” just-in-time delivery, quality retention, and global customer service.

Jan 1, 2003

"Chairman: Mr R. A. PLUMBRIDGE Rapporteur: Dr D. M. HAWKINSPapers:The relevance of computer methods to the economics of the mineral industry by R: A. PerlmanDynamic control of a mining enterprise by R. G. CoyleAn economic model of the mineral sands industry by G. P. A. HoweMr M. Splaine, in opening the discussion on Mr Perlman's paper, asked whether the model, as fitted by data up to 1963, predicted the rise in the price of copper in 1967, and whether the model could be used to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations.Answering the second question first, Mr Perlman said that the horizon used is six months to one year. In the very short term the activities of speculators obscured the effect of the fundamental econometric variables. This effect, however, was removed if one moved to a longer term, say, quarterly. In 1963 the model had predicted a price rise in 1964 and 1965 and a drop in price in 1966. The rise in 1967 had been caused by a strike, and imponderables such as large strikes were difficult to include in the model since they were unpredictable. Model simulation can be used to show the effect of strikes on price and the effect of small strikes is small.Mr B. R. van Rooyen said that because models are both calibrated and tested on historical data a bias was introduced which gave rise to an overoptimistic estimate of the accuracy of the forecasts. To this Mr Perlman replied that there seemed to be no alternative to the use of historical data for calibrating and testing models, and thus little hope of avoiding the bias. A second point made by Mr. van Rooyen was that manage¬ment tended to be suspicious of complex models and that frequently more heuristic models were sufficiently accurate and preferable for investment decisions. He added that if management were not involved in the model building the econometrician might easily go astray, Mr Perlman replied that symbiosis between data analysts and users of the model was essential and that the experience of the practitioner must be reflected in the model.Mr M. R. Fuller-Good remarked that a clear understanding of future price trends was essential for effective capital planning, and asked, first, how one went from the compiled data on supply and demand to the determination of their effect on price, record, whether necessary data, for example, capacities, could be obtained timeously, and, third, when strikes restricted supply, whether stockpiling by consumers induced large price fluctuations."

Jan 1, 2014