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By S H. Begg

There is strong evidence that many major oil and gas (O&G) projects are plagued by large cost and schedule overruns, or significant underperformance in productivity. Similar evidence exists for large mining projects. This paper claims that uncertainty is the underlying reason why projects fail to deliver the metrics used to justify their investment, or to deliver the economic value possible if alternative decisions had been made.Most technical and economic analyses are performed to reduce uncertainty to help make decisions. Decision-making is about ranking alternatives and choosing the best; rarely are precise predictions required, if this is even possible. Better uncertainty assessment is one of the keys to better decisions, thus better business outcomes. To get better decisions it is suggested that the focus or reward/penalty incentives be shifted away from the quality of outcomes to the quality of decisions. High-quality decisions are those that are generated from the skilled use of the tools, methodologies and processes from the discipline of decision analysis.Uncertainty is quantified by probability, which is a degree of belief in the truth/falsity of some proposition about a quantity relevant to a decision, such as volume of in-place resource, future price or action of a competitor. The probability a person ascribes to a proposition depends upon their information set; hence probability is subjective – it is not an inherent attribute of the quantity of interest or the physical system.The above simple observations have profound implications for modelling approaches, how they deal with uncertainty, the use of data to help assess uncertainty and the reliability of information provided by subject-matter experts. The limited circumstances under which frequency data (from spatial or temporal variables) can be used to assign probabilities is also reviewed.People, in general, are subject to a range of biases and cognitive errors. Research with O&G subject-matter experts shows that their expertise offers little or no protection from making errors in probability assessments and other judgements.CITATION:Begg, S H, 2016. Decisions, decisions – uncertainty, variability, modelling and psychology, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 9–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By C. Derek Martin

"Predicting the ground response for tunnels in weak shales remains challenging. Predicting the ground response is challenged by difficulties in characterising the material, and our ability to predict deformations that are driven by coupled hydromechanical processes, when this material yields. The techniques that are used for characterizing weak shales are reviewed, and three case histories are examined that demonstrate the behaviour of these weak rocks during tunnelling. A general framework is provided for assessing the squeezing potential for weak shales.1 INTRODUCTIONGeologically, shale is an argillaceous fine-grained sedimentary rock that forms from the compaction of silt and clay-size mineral particles commonly referred to as ""mud"". Because of this grain size, the material is generically classed as Mudstone (Figure 1). Shale is distinguished from other mudstones because it is made up of many thin layers (laminated) and readily splits into thin pieces along the laminations (fissile). While the geological classification of shale appears straightforward, the classification for engineering purposes is often confusing. Underwood (l967) provided the first description of shale that made the distinction between “soil-like” compaction shales and “rock-like ""cemented"" shales. He coined the term ‘clay shale’ to capture the characteristics of hard clay yet recognizing its origin as a shale. In this paper weak shale is synonymous with clay shale and have strengths that typically range from R1 to R2 (1 to 25 MPa). Characterising these materials draws on methods from both soil and rock mechanics."

Jan 1, 2015

Applications of helium in aerostatics, cryogenics, space, and undersea work are described in papers from the Helium Applications Symposium. Specific subjects include investigations of X-ray sources by means of balloon-borne instruments, meteorological soundings by balloons, powered lighter-than-air flight, tethered balloons, refrigeration techniques, large superconductive magnets, electronic devices, superconducting transmission lines, high-precision thermal conductivity analysis, He3-He4 dilution refrigerators, uses of helium in the atomic energy program, helium-cooled nuclear reactors, power- plant applications for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, helium welding of stainless steel tubing and pipe, development of helium-shielded arc welding, helium as a diluent in spacecraft atmospheres, helium utilization in the Saturn-Apollo program, and helium utilization in diving environments. Papers from the Helium Centennial Symposium at the national meeting of the American Chemical Society cover the history of the discovery of helium, the history of its development by the Bureau of Mines from a laboratory curiosity to an important item of commerce, the source of helium in natural gases, the world of liquid helium, and liquid helium-3.

Jan 1, 1969

By George Hope, Brigitte Lacouture

"The Red Dog Mine has increased mill throughput for most years since startup. Although flotation equipment has been added over the last 10 years, the Red Dog metallurgical performance has been restricted by a lack of adequate flotation capacity. Two reduced tonnage trials conducted in 1997 as well as numerous SAG relines have consistently indicated the potential to significantly increase both zinc concentrate recovery and grade with additional flotation capacity. Late in 1999, a new circuit was designed with increased flotation capacity while simplifylng the current circuit, providing for three stages of dilution cleaning, and creating a retreat section. The purpose of the retreat section is to target the more complex particles and allow the chemical environment to be fine tuned for improved iron depression. In total, twentyone (21) Outokumpu OK50 mechanical flotation cells and four (4) 3.66m dia. column cells will be added to the current flotation circuit. The VIP (Value Improvement Program) Mill Optimization project is also addressing thickening, water treatment and power issues and has a total budget of $US105 M. Startup of equipment will be phased in to minimize the impact on current operations and is expected to be complete by the end of Q3-2001.INTRODUCTIONRed Dog Operations started production in November 1989. The mine is located above the arctic circle in northwest Alaska. It is linked by an 80 km road to a port-site facility where the concentrate is stored. Concentrate is shipped to markets throughout the world during the one hundred (100) days of open seas. Typical of sedimentary exhalative deposits, the metallurgy proved to be challenging and coupled with many mechanical shortcomings, the initial few years were very difficult. The start-up issues were slowly resolved and in 1998, a major grinding expansion, the PRI (Production Rate Increase) project, was completed. The project was designed to allow a 40% increase over the 1995 throughput. In 2000 mill throughput was 3,050,000 tonnes to produce a total of 960,000 and 140,000 dry tonnes of zinc and lead concentrates respectively, making Red Dog the largest zinc concentrate producer in the world. To address a shortage of flotation capacity remaining from the PRI grinding expansion, a project designated as the VIP (Value Improvement Program) Mill Optimization project was initiated. The mill optimization project is targeted to produce 1,100,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate at 56% zinc grade and 87% zinc recovery. The project will add twenty-one (21) Outokumpu OK50 (50m3) flotation cells, four (4) 3.66mO column cells and address water treatment, thickening and power generation capacities."

Jan 1, 2002

By J. Budac, R. Krentz, P. Cordingley, G. Freeman, M. E. Chalkley, H. Scheie

Pressure hydrometallurgical unit operations have been in commercial use at the Fort Saskatchewan refinery of Sherritt International Corporation for fifty years. This paper traces the history of Sherritt from its origins in northern Manitoba, and the development of the first hydrometallurgical nickel-cobalt refinery in 1954, utilizing pressure hydrometallurgy, to the modern day refinery. Sherritt's involvement with pressure hydrometallurgy during the past 50 years has included the operation of the refinery, the development and licensing of technology, incorporating pressure hydrometallurgical unit operations, to more than 30 companies worldwide, the joint venture at Moa, Cuba involving both leaching and precipitation at elevated temperature and pressure, and the production of specialty metal powders. Developments in each of these areas are reviewed.

Jan 1, 2004

By Hazel B. Comstock

[This material survey on magnesium and magnesium compounds is one of a series of Bureau of Mines publications designed to serve the needs of Government and industry for comprehensive, up-to-date information on mineral commodities and activities Magnesium, the world's lightest structural metal has become a most useful material in airborne and space vehicles, automotive equipment, machine tools, and consumer products. Use of magnesium on in basic refractories for iron and steel furnaces has expanded as the production of iron and steel has increased. Progress in converting steel furnaces to the use of oxygen has further increased the use of magnesium and magnesite brick.]

Jan 1, 1963

By Hazel B. Comstock

This materials survey on magnesium and magnesium compounds is one of a series of Bureau of Mines publications designed to serve the needs of Government and industry for comprehensive, up-to-data information on mineral commodities and activities. Magnesium, the world's lightest structural metal, has become a most useful material in airborne and spare vehicles, automotive equipment, machine tools, and consumer products. Use of magnesium ores in basic refractories for iron and steel furnaces has expanded as the production of iron and steel has increased, Progress in converting steel fun cares to the use of oxygen has further increased the use of magnesia and magnesite brick.

Jan 1, 1963

By AIME AIME

THE John Fritz Medal Board of Award, at its annual meeting on Jan. 21, 1921, awarded its gold medal and diploma to Sir Robert Hadfield for the invention of manganese steel. On June 1, announcement was made that the Board of Award had awarded its gold medal and diploma to Charles Prosper Eughe Schneider for "achievement in metallurgy of iron and steel; for development of ordnance, especially the 75-mm. gun, and for notable patriotic contribution ' to the winning of the war." The award to Sir Robert Hadfield is for the year 1921; the award to Mr. Schneider is for 1922. The latter was made at this time in order that the medal might be presented by the group of American engineers now visiting England and France.*

Jan 1, 1921

By H. W. Gillett

UNLIKE most previous Howe lecturers, I had not the good fortune to be associated with Henry Marion Howe, nor to be directly one of his students. Yet, through his writings, he has been my teacher, as he has of all American metallurgists. Instructive as his writings are-I use the present tense because Howe thought so keenly and reasoned so surely, seeing clearly, as if by intuition, what was hazy to lesser minds, that his writings are still vital-it is not, those books and papers, nor even the minds he trained in his classes, that were his most outstanding service. It was the spirit of Howe in his: approach to the problems of metallurgy, his broad-mindedness and fair-ness, his recognition of the need for theories and hypotheses to explain metallurgical phenomena, his willingness to use them as servants, as well as his questioning attitude-his refusal to accept them as masters-that comprise his greatest service. This most thoroughly warrants the honor the Institute pays each year to his memory. These traits I so respect and honor in any man that I glory in this opportunity to do reverence to him in whom they were so notably united.

Jan 1, 1939

By A. H. A. Robinson

Until quite recently-practically up to the present time-all but an insignificant amount of the copper produced in Canada was shipped abroad in the form of ore, matte, blister, etc., there to undergo the further treatment necessary to bring it to the refined state in which it is required by fabricators of copper. Consequently, Canadian manufacturers were forced to import nearly all the copper required in their business; and a considerable portion of the ultimate value to be derived from a Canadian raw material was lost to the country of its origin. In the early days of Canadian copper mining, when both the production and consumption of copper in Canada were much smaller than now, such a condition of affairs was perhaps economically unavoidable, and, in any case, was not a matte~ of sufficient importance to attract general attention. Later on, however, when there had been large and rapid increases both in the production and consumption of copper in Canada, it formed the basis of much adverse criticism, deserved or not, of producers of Canadian copper-criticism that became intensified during the war and subsequent years. Happily, the chief grounds of complaint have now been removed, and there are today copper refineries in Canada, either operating or under construction, that are capable, in the aggregate, of turning out amounts of refined copper greatly in excess of any indicated Canadian consumption.

Jan 1, 1931

By Arthur R. Rattew

In conjunction with the research study of the Coronation Mine recommended by the National Advisory Committee on Research in the Geo-logical Sciences and coordinated by the Geological Survey of Canada, Canadian Aero Service Limited per-formed a detailed, low-altitude air-borne survey over a block of ground encompassing the .Coronation Mine. The in-phase/out-of-phase air-borne electromagnetic data are com-pared with "horizontal-loop" ground data with reference to: size and nature of conductors detected; criteria in selection of targets for drilling. In-formation provided by Hudson Bay Mining and Smelting Company on their drilling of the numerous conductors in the area is employed in this comparison. The merits of combining a sensitive airborne magnetometer with an air-borne electromagnetic unit are discussed. The magnetic data are considered very important in assessing conductors as prospects for commercial sulphida deposits in this area of numerous electromagnetic anomalies. The "Coronation" survey illustrates

Jan 1, 1962

By Frank E. Cash, John A. Johnson

"INTRODUCTION The operators of the Lake Superior district iron-ore mines have made tremendous progress in the past 25 years in the transportation of broken ore from the working places to the surface. This progress has paid divi¬dends in increased production and in lower accident-frequency rates. The trend has been toward more efficient use of mechanical and electrical power and abolishment of many of the backbraking tasks formerly required of min¬ers and trammers.ScopeTransportation of iron ore as described in this paper covers (1) movement from the working place to ore raises by scrapers, shaker,conveyors, and belt conveyors, and, loading underground cars from chutes or-by scraping from loading drifts; (2) underground haulage, which includes underground cars trains, locomotives, and tracks; (3) shaft station's and hoisting shafts, which. Includes dumping cars, storage-pockets; auxiliary storage trenches, and shafts; (4) hoisting, which consists of skips, cages and hoists; and (5) head frames, loading into railroad cars, and stock-pile haulage.The 19 underground iron-ore mines discussed in this paper, situated in the Menominee, Marquette, Gogebic, Guyana, Mesabi, and Vermilion iron ranges of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota., shipped about 9,000,000 tons of iron ore in 1945, which constituted 56 percent of the underground iron ore taken from the Lake Superior district."

Nov 1, 1947

By G. M. Kintz, Charles B. Carpenter, G. W. Jones

"INTRODUCTION At 9:12 a. m. on April 16, 1947, the ammonium nitrate cargo in hold 4 of the S. S. Grandcamp, a 7,176 gross-ton Liberty ship owned by the French Government, detonated at pier 0 of the Texas City Terminal Railway Co., Texas City, Galveston County, Tex.This detonation was the first of a series of explosions and fires that took the lives of approximately 600 persons, injured 3,000 other persons, and caused a property damage and business loss that will exceed $58,800,000. It has been estimated that the life, accident, and workmen's compensation insurance loss will be $8,200,000.At 1:10 a. m. on April 17, 1947, the ammonium nitrate cargo in hold 5 of the S.S. High Flyer, a 6,214-gross-ton Liberty ship owned and operated by the Lykes Bros. Steamship Co., Inc., detonated at pier L. This explosion materially increased the property damage caused by the first explosion, in between 50 and 100 persons, and is believed to have taken the life of only one person.The exact number of casualties resulting from the Texas City disaster may never be known. On June 22, 1947, 65 days after the explosions, the red Cross and the Texas Department of Public safety repoted:,""Identified dead, 405; unidentified dead, 63; believed missing, 100; injured, 3,000; hospital¬ized, 600; still in hospitals, 37."""

Feb 1, 1948

By O. C. Blade

The term "Ichtnyol" is a name applied loosely to certain preparations used in pharmacy. These preparations do not occur as such in nature but are manufactured by various chemical processes. Ichthyol is the name trademarked for a product manyfactured by the Irhthyel-Gescllschaft (Cordes Hermanni & Co.) of Hamburg, Germany, and marketed in thin, country by Merck & Co., Inc., (5, 86, 87)3/. Although used in the literature rather loosely, the correctly applied word refers to the product obtained by sulphonating and then neutralizing with ammonia a distillate from the oil retorted from a certain high-sulphur bituminous shale found near the village of Seefeld in the Austrian Tyrol. Due to the fact that fossils of fish and marine animals occur in the limestone associated with the bituminous shale, these deposits have long been known as, the "lchthyolite schistc of Seefeld" ( 55) . The Greek word "ichthys"" for fish and the Latin word "oleum" for oil are the words from which the term is derived. The crude, tarry shale oil, whose distillate is the raw material for the sulphonation process, has been referred to since the Middle Ages as "Dürsten" or "Tirschen" oil, and the term "ichthyel oil" has been used occasionally in the literature to designate the retorted crude oil (92, 93, 106, 117). The first application of the name "Ichthyol" to a particular product is credited to Schröter (35, 129). Various names for products manufactured by sulphonating bituminous distillates have been coined, and in some of these names the root from the word ichthys has been retained. Some of these names can be found in New and Nonofficial Remedies under the heading, Sulphoichthyolate Preparation, and Substitutes (5).

Jan 1, 1938

By Silvio Hernández Aquije

El presente texto señala el descubrimento del yacimiento vanadífero de Minasragra a través del reporte de Yeatman-Berry en 1916 y el de Kett-Sproul en 1931. Así también señala los tipos de mineralización como la mineralización primaria y por impregnación.

Jul 1, 1955

By C. J. Sullivan

"The outlook for supplying the world's metal needs in the next twenty-five years is good, although in several cases basic costs are likely to increase with rising demand. Metal prices calculated at a constant dollar from 1900 to the present show that for nickel, copper, silver, lead, zinc and tin, prices -and presumably production costs -fell from 1900 to the early 1930s. Since then, they have generally risen, apparently reflecting some depletion in relation to demand. This tendency has been accentuated since the post-World War II adoption of managed, full-employment, growth economics, which have resulted in a sharp escalation in world demand for metals. (Abandonment of such policies, apparently now under consideration in North America, would, of course, affect the pre-dictions of this paper.) Nevertheless, metal prices generally are still below those prevailing in 1900. Exploration potential exists for disseminated ores of many metals still thought of as characteristic of lode and vein deposits. These include uranium, silver, gold, tin and nickel and, to a lesser extent, lead and zinc. Considering the discovery potential for some principal metals in relation to expected demand and prices, I would tend to rate them as follows: molybdenum, zinc, lead, uranium, silver, gold, tin, nickel and copper."

Jan 1, 1970

By CIM Mineral Resource, Mineral Reserve Committee

The CIM Estimation of Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves Best Practice Guidelines (MRMR Best Practice Guidelines) were prepared by the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum's (CIM) Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves Committee (CIM MRMR Committee) to update an earlier version that was accepted by CIM Council on November 23, 2003 (CIM, 2003). These 2019 MRMR Best Practice Guidelines supersede and replace the November 23, 2003 version of the MRMR Guidelines. These 2019 MRMR Guidelines are not intended to be prescriptive and are not intended to provide detailed and exhaustive instructions for preparation of Mineral Resource and/or Mineral Reserve (MRMR) estimates. Rather, they are intended as general guidance to assist professional geoscientists (or equivalent) and engineers (or equivalent) in preparing high quality estimates of MRMR that incorporate sound geoscientific, engineering, evaluation and design practices. They are based on well-established estimation and mine planning principles and are designed to provide general guidelines of best professional practices employed in the preparation of MRMR estimates. Although the 2019 MRMR Best Practice Guidelines are intended for use by Canadian-based mining/exploration practitioners, many of the concepts and practices presented herein are in general agreement with current industry practices in jurisdictions with membership in the Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards (CRIRSCO). For this document, persons preparing MRMR estimates are called Practitioners. Preparation of MRMR estimates should be carried out by Practitioners who either hold the status of Professional Geoscientist (or equivalent) or Professional Engineer (or equivalent), or who prepare the estimates under the supervision of a Professional Geoscientist (or equivalent) or Professional Engineer (or equivalent). For the purposes of this document, all references to reporting describe such necessary reports and related documentation that are created as part of the normal-course work flow of preparing MRMR estimates for internal purposes. For clarity, all public disclosure of MRMR estimates made by, or on behalf of, an issuer and intended to be, or reasonably likely to be, made available to the public in a jurisdiction of Canada must comply with the requirements of National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (NI 43-101), as amended from time to time. At least one Qualified Person (QP) must take responsibility for each part of the estimation process when publicly disclosing the results of MRMR estimates. The intended audience for these 2019 MRMR Best Practice Guidelines includes Practitioners at all levels of skill and experience, government agencies, academic institutions, and the public.

Nov 29, 2019

By Henry Kreisinger, F. K. Ovrrz, C. E. Augustine

The Bureau of Mines is conducting investigations to determine how fuels belonging to or for the use of the United States Govern- ment can be utilized with greater efficiency. As a result of these investigations a number of reports have been published, each report treating of one phase of fuel utilization. A list of these publications is given at the end of this bulletin. The efficient utilization of coal depends on the correct design of furnaces and on their proper operation. To attain both of these conditions a knowledge of the fundamental principles of combus- tion is necessary. Therefore, the study of the combustion of coal in industrial furnaces has been made a part of the bureau's fuel in- vestigations. The desirability of investigating the fundamental principles of combustion was suggested by the study of a large number of steam- ing tests made by the fuel-testing division on coals from all of the more important fields in the United States. The results of these tests have been published in Bulletin 325 of the United States Geological Survey and in Bulletin 23 of the Bureau of Mines. As a result of that study a plan to investigate the combustion of coal in a special apparatus in which all conditions could be controlled was presented to the National Advisory Board for Fuels and Struc- tural Materials at its meeting of April 10 and 11, 1906. The plan received the approval of the board, and since the establishment of the experiment station of the Bureau of Mines at Pittsburgh the investigation of the combustion of coal has been carried on intermit- tently. The history of these investigations is given in Technical Paper 63.

Jan 1, 1917

During the hydrometallurgical processing of the major base metals Cu, Zn, Ni and Co, the presence of iron is normally a serious complication, and iron separation from the pay metals usually constitutes one of the main challenges for the metallurgist. There are many instances, however, where the presence of iron is beneficial, or is even required. Two cases are presented where iron is required during the processing of base metals. The first example deals with the use of ferric sulphate to oxidize sulphides, more particularly copper and zinc sulphides, under atmospheric conditions. The results presented confirm that ferric ion leaching is efficient, particularly when the oxidant is regenerated during the process. The second case is the use of iron to solubilise refractory cobalt oxide minerals; examples, including pilot plant results, are presented for various ores from Africa and Central America. In both cases, this paper reviews the basic concepts involved and provides details of their application.

Jan 1, 2006

By H. A. Wheeler

IT may surprise some of our members to learn, among the industries based on the mineral resources of the United States that of clay now ranks third, being exceeded in value of product only by pig-iron and coal. The present annual value of clay-products exceeds the value of the outputs of gold and silver, and also exceeds the combined values of copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, mercury, antimony and nickel. These facts are shown in Table I. which gives the statistics for the year 1902

Jan 1, 1905