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By M S. Tuohy

Poorly judged or under-appreciated change plays a role in many major accidents. In particular, operational changes related to continuous improvement, maintenance and introduction of new technology can lead to unintended safety (and other) consequences. This paper provides an overview of the role of management of change in preventing unwanted impacts on safety, community relationships and the environment. It draws on a range of incidents covering mining, minerals processing, refining and smelting where inadequately assessed or ineffectively implemented change led to significant safety, environmental or community consequences. The paper will also highlight cases of well-managed complex change and the underlying model of decision-making in place to make those decisions. All these examples are drawn from Atturra’s experience in response to accidents or working with sites to improve their management systems. The paper will report on the challenges of applying conventional risk assessment approaches to complex or technically significant change. These typically result in either onerous and lengthy change procedures that are prone to workarounds or poor implementation. Conversely, ‘light touch’ or efficiency driven change processes present the risk of intended consequences by failing to bring appropriate expertise to bear in decision-making. Such balances can be resolved by considering the designation of ‘technical authority’ with appropriate expertise to consider the change and deconflict any production, cost or schedule trade-offs. Finally, the paper will reflect on the key components of management of change systems in the context of major accidents, highlighting good practice in how they are implemented. This will consider the integration of existing corporate processes, risk management and organisational structures into management of change systems, not just the content of change forms and procedures.

Apr 16, 2024

INTRODUCTION The pager phones used in many underground coal mines are battery- operated, party-line telephones with provisions for loudspeaker paging. The system is two-wire, non-polarized, and is operated by self-contained batteries. Many of the individual units are certified as permissible. Requirements for installation are specified in state and federal regulations, such as in the Code of Federal Regulations, Title 30, Mineral Resources, Part 75. The major federal regulations that affect communication in coal mines are noted below, with a brief description of the subject matter in each of the relevant paragraphs. Refer to the cited paragraphs of Title 30 for explicit details of these regulations. (This brief description is for reference purposes only.) Minimum Requirements (paragraphs 75.1600, 75.17 13-2, and 75.1003-1) Approved telephone or two-way communication will be provided between the surface and each main shaft landing and each working section ; to the nearest medical assistance; and shall be protected from contact with trolley wires or trolley feeder wires. Installation Requirements (paragraphs 75.5 16-2, 75.52 1, and 77.508-1 ) Communication wires will be supported on insulated hangers, attached to messenger cables, or buried, to protect against mechanical damage ; installed opposite trolley wires; and insulated near power conductors . . . each cable will have lightning arresters within 100 feet of going below ground . . . and arresters will be provided wherever telephone wires enter a building. Wire and Cable Requirements (paragraphs 75.5 16-2, 75.5 17, and 75.52 1) Communication cable means two or more insulated conductors, covered by an additional abrasion-resistant covering; power wires and cables shall be adequately insulated and fully protected; and lightning arresters shall be connected to low-resistance grounds, more than 25 feet from neutral grounds.

Apr 1, 1975

By A Winchester, D Grant

The massive 1100 Orebody in Mount IsaÆs X41 Copper Mine has been extracted over the last 40 years form north to south utilising sublevel open stoping methods.De velopment has continually stepped ahead of production to provide access to new primary stoping blocks. The remaining secondary pillars contain stopes with one, two or three fill mass exposures and were constrained by access requirements and stope extraction turnaround time.The remaining southern mining areas consist of large 40 m wide by 300 to 400 m long east-west transverse pillars that have been left to provide access for ventilation and service requirements. Three large transverse cross-cuts or transverse pillars û 4180 x/c, 4010 x/c and the Panel pillar now remain. The 4180 x/c was the last major transverse pillar to be successfully broken.This transverse pillar is being extracted in a retreating sequence, creating 3SLOS stopes due to the surrounding backfilled stopes.In recent years the extraction of the first, and most critical, stopes in the transverse pillars have resulted in large changes to the induced stress field. This paper describes the extraction of the 1.1 million tonne stope P418 in the 4180 x/c pillar.T echnical challenges that were faced and how they were overcome to allow for the successful extraction of the stope are described.Critical to the success of the P418 stope extraction were the rehabilitation methodology used; extraction strategy modifications to address deteriorating ground; mass firings with multiple directional changes; managing the exposure of backfill of variable strengths; and geotechnical monitoring prior to, during and after extraction.

Jan 1, 2005

By Don Dodds

Iron Mountain Mine Rehabilitation Project Brief History The Iron Mountain Mine is located in Northern California approximately 12 miles northwest of Redding. The ore body is a large, very dense pyritic intrusion, discovered in 1860, and initially minded for silver. The silver played out quickly and 34 years later the ore body was mined for copper. Copper mining was scheduled to cease in 1939, but WWII prolonged the closure. After WWII, the pyrite ore was mined to produce sulfuric acid. In 1949 when large amounts of cheaper sulfuric acid were being generated by the oil industry the underground mine shut down. Little was done with the site conditions until 1970 when the U.S. Bureau of Mines began monitoring the pH of the effluent. The initial pH readings were around 2.0. This was lower than anyone expected. Laboratory tests showed that when the ore from the mine was submerged in water, the pH of the water would stabilize above 4.0. However, the pH got steadily lower. In 1989 with the ph around 0.7, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) required the owner to build a capture and treatment facility. During this initial period, the majority of the effort was spent on the treatment plant. The relationship between the mine owner and the EPA was basically an adversarial relationship from the very beginning. In 2001, North Pacific Research was hired to upgrade the capture and control facility. The general layout of the Iron Mountain Mine is shown in Figure 1.

By Aaron Nickoli, Brad Clark, Thomas Horan E. I. T.

The Canal Road Dip Slide is an active landslide located on South Pender Island, British Columbia. The effects of the fall 2021 atmospheric river prompted the British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure to initiate an emergency response project to realign Canal Road out of the active landslide zone for safe traffic passage. The work was tendered in a bidding process and included blasting and rock excavation work at the project site. Tetra Tech Canada Inc. was retained by the contractor to be their Blast and Vibration Specialist. The close proximities of an active landslide, a Canadian National Park, and other segments of construction posed stringent constraints to blasting. The governing constraints to blast design included a Peak Particle Velocity (PPV) limit of 3 mm/s (0.12 in/s) along the adjacent landslide centerline and a slide movement constraint. Sixteen blasts were executed throughout the scope of work to remove 2595 m3 (3394 yd3) of meta-sedimentary rock. Blast designs adhered to the constraints by utilizing up to quadruple decking in 50+ blast holes which lead to complex timing schemes. Several blasts were over 4 seconds in duration, with one at nearly 8 seconds. The landslide area was monitored with Shape Accel Arrays (SAA) throughout the scope of work that tracked geohazard slide movement during construction. The SAA data is presented, and the effect of blasting is discussed. Site specific parameters for PPV estimation were calculated and are presented. Collaboration and communication between the stakeholders allowed the project team to successfully overcome the technical challenges posed by the Canal Road Dip Slide.

Jan 26, 2026

By James E. Monsees, Wayne A. Carbiener, Michael R. Wigley

This paper illustrates an approach to quantitatively document the degree of technical conservatism to be incorporated into the design of a waste isolation system in bedded salt. It is anticipated that for an actual repository site the key performance constraints and/or design bases identified in this paper will be reviewed, and modified or supplemented as required. Ultimate acceptance of a repository will be dependent upon scientific peer input and scrutiny of the demonstrated conservatism inherent in each specific repository site and design.

Jan 1, 1981

By Mark J. Dowiak, Daniel Threlfall

The disposal of hazardous chemical wastes will be one of the major environmental issues of the 1980s. About 45 Mt of hazardous wastes are produced yearly. One major aspect of the problem is the siting, design, and construction of' environmentally acceptable disposal facilities to accommodate this huge volume of material. Surface mines have been considered attractive for development as disposal sites for several reasons. • Surface mines offer an open pit that can conveniently serve as a repository for wastes. This could represent a significant economic, savings when compared with sites on undisturbed lands that might require extensive excavation or embankment construction. • Surface mines often have an abundance of mine spoil available that could potentially serve as construction material. This could result in a significant economic advantage over other sites that might require extensive amounts of construction material to be excavated or hauled in. • Operation of a commercial disposal facility in a surface mine can reduce or totally alleviate reclamation costs. • For an abandoned surface mine, conversion into a disposal facility could represent a positive form of land use and may provide a means for reclaiming lands that would otherwise remain unreclaimed. Despite these positive reasons, there are many technical factors associated with surface raining that can make the prospect of disposal site development an uncertain one. Before discussing factors associated with mining that can present siting, design, or construction problems, some understanding of the basic components of a chemical waste disposal facility is necessary.

Jan 2, 1981

By Daniel Threlfall

The disposal of hazardous chemical wastes will be one of the major environmental issues of the 1980's. Approximately 50 million tons of hazardous wastes are produced yearly. One of the major aspects of the problem is the siting, design and construction of environmentally acceptable disposal facilities to accommodate this huge volume of material. Surface mines have been considered attractive for development as disposal sires for several reasons: 1. Surface mines represent an open pit that can conveniently serve as a repository for wastes. This could represent a significant economic savings when compared with sites on undisturbed lands chat might require extensive excavation or embankment construction.

Jan 1, 1981

By Dean Brox

Tunnel boring machines (TBMs) have been used for the construction of various tunnels for mining projects for the purpose of access, conveyance of ore and waste, drainage, exploration, water supply and water diversion. Several mining projects have seen the successful and economic beneficial use of TBMs, and there is an increasing awareness of the benefits of TBMs for mining projects. Key technical considerations for the use of TBMs for the construction of tunnels for mining projects include geological issues (rock type, rock alteration, rock strength, rock abrasivity, durability, ground water in flows), depth of cover and the potential for overstressing/rockbursts, site access and terrain, portal locations, TBM constraints, minimum tunnel size, tunnel support requirements, contractor and labor experience, and project schedule demands. TBMs offer key project schedule benefits with high rates of progress, which is a unique economic advantage recognized for mining projects where timing is of the essence in order to advance mining development and achieve early startup for operations. A thorough evaluation of the anticipated ground conditions should be performed as part of the decision to adopt a TBM for a mining project. Minimum specifications for TBMs are necessary in order to prevent the incorrect type of TBM from being used. Appropriate geotechnical investigations are necessary in order to provide key information on the anticipated subsurface conditions for careful planning and design of the proposed tunnel alignment. The overall site and geological conditions associated with some projects may suggest that it is not appropriate to use TBMs for some mining projects due to a perceived higher risk. Key words: TBM, Tunnel boring machines, Tunneling in mining

Feb 1, 2014

By Dean Brox

Tunnel boring machines (TBMs) have been used for the construction of various tunnels for mining projects for the purpose of access, conveyance of ore and waste, drainage, exploration, water supply and water diversion. Several mining projects have seen the successful and economic beneficial use of TBMs, and there is an increasing awareness of the benefits of TBMs for mining projects. Key technical considerations for the use of TBMs for the construction of tunnels for mining projects include geological issues (rock type, rock alteration, rock strength, rock abrasivity, durability, ground water inflows), depth of cover and the potential for overstressing/rockbursts, site access and terrain, portal locations, TBM constraints, minimum tunnel size, tunnel support requirements, contractor and labor experience, and project schedule demands. TBMs offer key project schedule benefits with high rates of progress, which is a unique economic advantage recognized for mining projects where timing is of the essence in order to advance mining development and achieve early startup for operations. A thorough evaluation of the anticipated ground conditions should be performed as part of the decision to adopt a TBM for a mining project. Minimum specifications for TBMs are necessary in order to prevent the incorrect type of TBM from being used. Appropriate geotechnical investigations are necessary in order to provide key information on the anticipated subsurface conditions for careful planning and design of the proposed tunnel alignment. The overall site and geological conditions associated with some projects may suggest that it is not appropriate to use TBMs for some mining projects due to a perceived higher risk.

Jan 1, 2013

By Dean Brox

The use of Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) for tunnel construction of long tunnels in the Andes of South America has been of mixed success in the past due to a variety of reasons and key lessons can be recognized. A review of past TBM tunnel projects in the Andes has unveiled some interesting findings for different TBM tunnel approaches with both world records of progress as well as nearly in-completed projects with machines being abandoned. Key considerations for the use of TBMs for tunnel construction in the Andes include geological issues; (faults, rock type, rock strength, rock abrasivity, durability, groundwater inflows),depth of cover and the potential for overstressing/rockbursts, site access and terrain, portal locations, intermediate access possibilities, minimum tunnel size, support requirements, contractor and labour experience, and project schedule demands. TBMs offer highly recognized schedule benefits(high progress, no concrete lining) for a project if intermediate access adits are limited as well as hydraulic benefits for water conveyance projects. Minimum specifications for TBMs can be easily developed to suit the unique requirements of any project so as long as all factors are carefully considered. The overall conditions and factors associated with some projects may suggest that it is not appropriate to use TBMs due to a perceived high risk. Finally, access for geotechnical investigations by drilling in the commonly steep terrain of the Andes is typically difficult and often not impossible. Alternative approaches for geotechnical investigations for TBM tunnels including comprehensive mapping, high-resolution airborne electric-magnetics for delineation of possible fault zones, and rock block sampling is presented and discussed.

By D. T. Kirkwood

The practice of impounding mine water and liquid fine waste in underground mines is increasing. Often these underground impoundments are created by constructing seals or bulkheads designed to withstand the expected hydraulic pressures. Occasionally seals are built for another purpose, usually to act as explosion-resistant ventilation barriers. Due to factors such as clogged drain pipes or unexpectedly high inflow rates, these explosion-resistant seals sometimes become subjected to hydraulic pressures. The incidence of seal failures due to inadequate design and/or construction is also on the increase. Fortunately, to date, no lives have been lost by water seal failures, but a clearer understanding of the design and construction considerations specific to water seals is vital to keep this from occurring in the future. This paper presents technical considerations for the design and construction of seals which will specifically be required to withstand hydraulic pressures in underground mines.

Jan 1, 1995

By Olav Mejia

The rising energy costs and environmental considerations in mining necessitate the development of energy-efficient copper and gold processing plants. This paper presents an analysis of technical strategies aimed at reducing energy consumption in these plants. Key approaches include the integration of advanced ore sorting technologies, High Pressure Grinding Rolls (HPGR), Coarse Particle Flotation (CPF), and high-intensity flotation. Ore sorting enables early-stage waste removal, reducing the downstream processing load and associated energy use. HPGR technology, recognized for its energy efficiency, contributes to significant energy savings in comminution circuits by reducing reliance on traditional grinding methods. CPF technology further optimizes flotation performance by enabling the recovery of larger particles, thereby decreasing the need for fine grinding and reducing overall power demand. High-intensity flotation units enhance separation efficiency and mineral recovery in a compact footprint, offering further reductions in energy consumption. Together, these technologies provide energy saving opportunities to achieve a more sustainable and economically viable processing operation. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of each method, highlighting their potential impacts on energy consumption, operational efficiency, and cost-effectiveness in copper and gold processing

May 4, 2025

By A G. Shellsh, R J. Henham, J R. Foley

The Porgera Gold Mine, west of Mt Hagen in PNG is a large open pit and underground operation currently producing gold at the rate of almost one million ounces per year. This deposit has produced some 8.8 million ounces to-date and has current reserves of 103.4 million tonnes @3.2 g/t Au. The Porgera Joint Venture has invested over $A1 billion in infrastructure in this project. Technical management of this operation involves the interrogation of some 700 000 metres of diamond drilling, some 50 000 blastholes per year, and very large volumes of laboratory, geotechnical, environmental and production reporting data. Over the past seven years this data has been consolidated into a single centralised, relational database which now acts as the single reference point for all the technical application systems used for surveying, grade control, production reporting, deposit evaluation and modelling. Data transfer to application programs and management systems is controlled by the centralised database, this process at times involving a two-way, real-time, binary data transfer. The benefits of a specialised database application include security and integrity of the data asset, ease of access, and performance in a multi-user environment. This replaced fragmented, inconsistent data sets stored inefficiently as individual, unindexed, variably formatted files associated with the different application programs. Most importantly, the database has allowed mine management at all levels to make timely, confident investment, cash flow and optimisation decisions as it provides the primary link between the deposit and operational data sets on one hand, and the application programs and management and performance measurement systems on the other. This paper discusses the economic value and importance of technical data in terms of the resource asset and the means by which this data is being managed and used at Porgera.

Jan 1, 2000

By Hugo L. Johnson, Robert Wallace

THE Midvale plant of the United States Smelting Refining and Mining Company consists of a flotation mill for concentrating sulphide ores of lead and zinc by differential flotation to produce three separate concentrates, one of lead, one of zinc, and one of iron pyrite; and a lead smelter for smelting ores and concentrates to produce base lead bullion, The plant, including its shops, laboratories, office, railroad yards which serve both mill and smelter, and areas reserved for tailing ponds and slag dumps, covers 646 acres on the right bank of the Jordan River at Midvale, Utah. It is twelve miles south of Salt Lake City and sixteen miles east of the West Mountain mining district at Bingham Canyon from which is drawn a large part of its ore supply. Custom ores are treated as well as the product of Company mines.

Jan 1, 1948

By J Chßvez, J Rosa del Castillo, J Rui

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Feasibility Studies (FS) were carried out to evaluate the potential use of treated acid mine drainage (AMD) occurring at the Kingsmill Tunnel in the Central Andes of Peru. The 11 km long tunnel drains the underground works of the Morococha Mining District and discharges about 1.25 m3/sec of AMD directly into the Yauli River in the Amazon Basin. The communities living downstream cannot use the Yauli River water due to its low pH and elevated concentrations of metals (eg Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn, As, Cd) and sulfate. Studies carried out for this project included technical feasibility, EIA, economic viability and social impact assessment phases. During the æTechnical FeasibilityÆ phase, the treated AMD was produced by simulating a high density sludge (HDS) lime neutralisation/ precipitation process and was evaluated for various potential uses. Mining companies located in Morococha, in particular Centromin Peru SA, and the Water Works Company of the City of Lima (Sedapal) collaborated with Golder Associates during the studies. The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) provided the financial assistance. The results of the physical, chemical, biological and toxicological analyses demonstrated that the AMD could be sufficiently treated to be potentially used to supplement the drinking water supply of Lima, and for agricultural (eg irrigation and livestock) and recreational purposes. Process design and scale-up parameters were also determined for implementation of the full-scale treatment facility at the site. The use of the treated AMD as a drinking water supplement would be economically feasible.

Jan 1, 2003

By J. B. Hiskey

Introduction The domestic copper industry has suffered for some time from declining ore grades; rising costs associated with conventional mining, milling, smelting and refining; tightening environmental restrictions; and shrinking markets due to materials substitution. Ore grade depletion is a major problem. It is illustrated by the decline in average copper yield shown in Fig. 1. From 1979, copper grade has dropped 60%, lowering yields from 1.2% to 0.49% (Sousa, 1981). The US copper industry is taking drastic measures to enhance its competitive posture and to guarantee its future worldwide position. In a sense, this involves a general restructuring of the processing philosophy of US copper producers. Judging from recent trends, this restructuring relates to the application of solution mining techniques to the treatment of copper ores and low grade waste material. Recovering copper by leaching techniques has been practiced for centuries. As early as the mid-16th century, some Hungarian copper mines were recycling copper bearing leach solutions through waste heaps (Nash, 1912). In the US, recovering copper from dilute mine waters has been carried out for more than 100 years. There are, however, certain technical innovations that have elevated the importance of solution mining as a process for copper recovery. These include: • Advances in solvent extract-electrowinning (SX-EW); • Developments in acid and acid ferric cure processes for oxide and mixed oxide sulfide ores; • Improvements in heap and dump construction; and • Advances in in situ leaching technology. Generally, solution mining enjoys certain intrinsic advantages over conventional mining and milling. Compared to conventional milling, the combined capital and operating costs of leaching facilities are normally lower, start-up times are faster, and the leaching operation usually has less impact on the environment. Furthermore, solution mining represents an expedient way of extracting metals from small shallow deposits, and is particularly suited to the treatment of low grade sources. And, in the case of waste dump leaching, there is a tremendous resource in-place that has the mining cost already off the books. This paper updates current US copper solution mining trends. Solution mining systems Schlitt (1980) summarized the characteristics of the principle leach systems in the US. He pointed out that the wide variations in copper deposits make solution mining a more site-specific activity than conventional mining and milling. Heap leaching is usually selected for moderate to high grade ores having a copper mineralization that is amenable to acid leaching (oxides, silicates and certain sulfides). Higher grade ores mined specifically for heap leaching are usually treated to optimize copper extraction, therefore, crushing and some pretreatment (acid curing) may be justified. On the other hand, dump leaching practice usually involves leaching low grade waste rock placed on large dumps as dictated by topography and haulage costs. Mine waste is therefore treated in an uncrushed run-of-mine condition. Finally, in situ leaching is appropriate for either very deep ore bodies or for recovering copper from low grade rock left behind in abandoned pit walls, stopes, and subsidence zones from earlier mining activities. True in-situ solution mining should be defined as the leaching of ore in its original geologic setting. Heap leaching Heap leaching has a long history as a hydrometallurgical process for copper recovery. The methodology of heap leaching established at Rio Tinto in Spain more than 300 years ago is basically the same as that used today. Processing concepts, such as solution management (sprinklers and leach/rest cycles) and copper

Jan 11, 1986

By James R. Hunter, Sandra K. Zacharias, Ursula M. Franklin

Archaeometallurgical remains can be a valuable source of information about past technological activities and, by inference, the societies that undertook them. Material traces of former metal-producing or metal-working centres can include raw materials, products, or metallurgical installations such as mines, furnaces or forges. Of these remains, the most common is slag, often left undisturbed since its original production. Physical and chemical analyses of archaeological slag and metal can often reveal the processes and materials involved in their formation. Mineral composition and softening temperature of a slag, for instance, can indicate the conditions of the metallurgical operation, such as temperature and atmosphere and, thus, help identify metallurgical processes which took place at a site(1). The present report illustrates the value of such analysis. Metal-working remains from Sainte-Marie among the Hurons, near Midland, Ontario, on the south side of Georgian Bay have been analyzed in order to determine the techniques and processes used by the 17th-century blacksmith who worked at the mission headquarters from 1642 to 1649. Samples were selected from a very large collection of blacksmith refuse which was excavated from the site by archaeologist Kenneth Kidd in 1941-42(2).

Jan 1, 1999

By Pascal Deschamps

"INTRODUCTION During the last decades, many underground facilities for the storage of hydrocarbons have been excavated worldwide and the technology is fully mature. Similarly to other underground structures, the initial basic design has to be adapted along with the work progress, in order to cope with the actual site conditions and in particular the geology, hydrogeology and associated rockmass quality. In addition, Client’s or underground Contractor’s constraints (such as resources availability, schedule or cost impact) may vary from design to construction and require last minute adjustments. Engineers are required to introduce flexibility and anticipation of unexpected situations (similar to the above-mentioned) while conceiving large underground facilities. Although most of the cases require only minor adaptations, crucial parts of the facility have sometimes to be considerably modified and reviewed. This article will present four cases evidencing how the design of one of these essential structures - the concrete plug – has been adjusted during site implementation without impairing the initial performances. Hydrodynamic containment The product containment of the unlined caverns discussed here is ensured by the principle of hydrodynamic containment. A permanent water flow is naturally or artificially maintained with an orientation toward the storage cavern and then, neither product-tight membrane nor lining are required. The hydraulic gradient (and the associated water flow lines), being directed from the surrounding mass toward the cavern, prevent from outward migration of the product. If the hydraulic gradient is not sufficient or if the water table is evidencing instability, water can be artificially injected into the rockmass through purpose-built boreholes, drilled from dedicated galleries. This water injection system, called the water curtain, is generally located several tens of meters above the level of the cavern. This principle is illustrated here after."

Jan 1, 2016

By J. Guzman

Introduction The Carlin Trend is North America's premier gold producing district. It is located in northeastern Nevada's Elko and Eureka Counties along a northwest trending belt about 65 km (40 miles) long and 8 km (5 miles) wide (Thorstad, 1989; Jones, 1989). This trend is the worldwide reference site for epithermal, sedimentary rock-hosted microscopic gold deposits. At least 19 deposits have been discovered to date, varying in size from 933 kg to 1.08 kt (30,000 to 35 million contained oz) of gold (Fig. 1). Newmont Gold Co. and its parent, Newmont Mining Corp., jointly constitute the largest mineral right holders in the district. They own or control more than 1000 km' (386 sq miles) in and around the Carlin Trend and own all or part of I6out of the 19 mines and prospects identified to date. Since the initiation of Newmont's exploration activities in the Carlin Trend in 1961, 2.24 kt (72 million oz) of cumulative gold resources have been identified. Cumulative production from all mines since the start-up of Newmont's Carlin mine in 1965 to the end of 1989 was about 202 t (6.5 million oz) (Jones, 1989). The incentive of sustained high gold prices and innovation in processing technology resulted in a significant acceleration of gold output over the last few years. Newmont Gold alone produced more than 43.5 t (1.4 million oz) in 1989. That is equal to 22% of the cumulative 1965 to 1988 output, and an almost 200% increase over its 1986 output. The same incentives produced even more spectacular exploration results. In each of the last five years, net additions to reserves and resources outpaced current production by substantial margins. These facts demonstrate the spectacular past prospectiveness of the Carlin Trend and the success of focused, multi-disciplinary exploration methods that made it possible to more than offset the recent accelerated depletion of gold resources. However, is this situation sustainable? How long can the mining companies along the Carlin Trend keep on finding resources faster than they deplete them? These are some of the questions that motivated this study. The authors have not quantified the future potential for gold exploration in the Carlin Trend nor established a deposit discovery path. But strong indications were discovered that the [ ] Carlin Trend remains a relatively immature exploration district and that the potential for significant new discoveries is high. Methodology and data The approach chosen to address the above questions was simple. The authors compiled deposit size data, measured in contained ounces of gold resources, for all known deposits along the Carlin Trend (Table 1). The resource information was obtained by adding cumulative historical production (adjusted for mining losses and metallurgical recovery) to 1989 year-end published resource inventories. In a mature exploration area, where most deposits have been discovered, this distribution would be expected to approximate lognormality and would plot along a straight line on a lognormal probability scale. This result was found in previous work by Allais (1957) and recently confirmed by Cox and Singer (USGS, 1986) in regard to various types of mineral deposits in several regions of the world. It was also found to hold true for oil and gas pool size distributions (Arps and Roberts, 1958; Kaufman, 1962; McCrossan, 1969). [ ] The data used were compiled by Newmont Exploration geologists. The purpose of the study is to make inferences about the underlying geologic processes in the district and the maturity of the exploration effort. Therefore, deposits were not classified according to ownership but according to geologic occurrence as known from current information. Newmont's Post and Barrick's Goldstrike and Betze deposits, for example, are shown as a single occurrence to reflect the actual geologic setting. The cumulative frequency distribution of deposit sizes was plotted on lognormal probability paper (Fig. 2). The abscissa shows the cumulative fraction of deposits at or below a certain deposit size and the ordinate shows the deposit size in thousands of ounces of contained gold resources.

Jan 1, 1992