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By Mark W. Booth

THIS paper deals with the subject of inbye power as the mechanical . engineer sees it, and invites discussion, particularly from the electrical engineer. At the outset, it will be necessary to clear the ground a little by some definite statements. In this question of compressed air versus electricity for the transmission of power and driving of machinery in underground workings, we must see that there are definite fields that compressed air on the one hand, and electricity on the other, can fill to much greater advantage than the other, and in which there can be little or no direct competition, at least for the present. It is under conditions where these fields overlap, and as to where the line must be drawn between the two, that the respective merits of each must be considered. Steam was the first means used to transmit power from the surface of a mine to drive underground machinery, and so long as distances were short and means possible to ensure fairly efficient use of the steam, and where the fire hazard was not in evidence, it gave fairly efficient service. I have in mind an instance during my own connection with the mines-a duplex pump at the shaft bottom at Princess colliery, driven by steam, and which used the steam compound and condensing; and, but for the mechanical difficulties, it was a not inefficient proposition. The steam was taken direct from the surface boiler-plant through a line down the shaft, and used directly at the pump, being in effect a straight conversion from coal to steam to work done. It was the mechanical arrangement, and failure of the pump in that direction, that led to its removal and replacement by something better in the way of an electrically driven turbine pump. Given modern mechanical arrangements, such as a steam-turbine drive on a high-speed turbine pump, and all other parts made in accordance with best practice in the art of steam generation and use, a steam-driven unit fully as economical would have been obtained. But the central electric supply station, and all that that means or promises (not always the same), turned the scale against steam.

Jan 1, 1936

By F. D. Ball, D. E. Gemmell

"Coal mining in New Brunswick dates from the year 1639, when, as today, coal was produced from the area surrounding Grand Lake near the geographic centre of the province. Current production by N.B. Coal Ltd. is approximately 453,000 tonnes per year and comes from a single, thin Pennsylvanian age seam. The history of development and understanding of the geological setting of New Brunswick coals is discussed, beginning with the work of A. Gesner in 1839. The lithostratigraphic sub-divisions of the Pennsylvanian strata proposed by various workers are summarized and the present hypothesis that only biostratigraphic subdivision is possible is detailed. The Pictou Group, which includes the New Brunswick coals, consists of repetitive sequences of sediments consistent with flu vial and upper delta plain sedimentation. The development of coal mining in the province has progressed from horse-powered stream-bank stripping operations prior to the late 1800s through to the present use of open stripmining techniques utilizing eight walking draglines of various sizes. During the intervening years the introduction and eventual phasing out of underground mining occurred with the near termination of the coal mining industry in the province prior to 1973. The coal seam worked by N.B. Coal Ltd. averages 46 cm in thickness, has never been found to be more than 76 cm thick and has both high ash (12.4 -31.1%) and sulphur (4.9-7.8%) content. The wide variety of coal beneficiation studies and tests completed on New Brunswick coals have lead to the conclusion that a washed New Brunswick coal product could be expected with 10 to 12% ash, 5 to 6% sulphur, and 30,225 to 31,388 1/gm. Recoverable coal reserves, including those in the area licenced to N.B. Coal Ltd. and those licenced, although not yet in production, to both the St. Lawrence Cement Co. Ltd. and Provincial Holdings Ltd. at Lake Stream and Beersvil/e, total 60 million tonnes. At present, coal in New Brunswick is removed from prospecting and staking and all existing and future coal exploration and development will be administered by agreement under the Mining Act. Based on the results of a recently completed drilling project undertaken by the Department of Natural Resources, seventeen coal exploration blocks which carry minimum work commitments will be offered to the New Brunswick Electric Power Commission on a sixty-day first right ofrefusal basis. Those blocks not taken up by the Power Commission will be offered under the same commitments to the private sector."

Jan 1, 1985

By K. El-Ouassiti, M. Zouadi, C. Bazin, D. Hodouin

Data reconciliation techniques are used to attenuate the effect of measurement errors and estimate unmeasured variables. This paper illustrates the application of data reconciliation to hydrometallurgy processes using measurements from leaching and solvent extraction obtained from laboratory experiments. The application of data reconciliation provides an efficient way to detect gross and systematic errors and produces reliable performance indices for process evaluation.

Jan 1, 2005

By Mehmet F. Taner

"Abstract - The East Sullivan Stock (ESS) is a small, composite felsic alkaline pluton of presumed late Archean age in the Val d’Or mining district. Three main facies have been distinguished: monzonite sensu stricto, porphyritic monzonite, and green trachytic porphyry. This monzonitic group of rocks is of relatively homogeneous composition with high abundances of Na2O, K2O, Ba, Sr, Rb, Zr, Mo and LREE. The alkaline ESS is distinguished from other igneous units in the Val d’Or mining district, such as the Bourlamaque Batholith, by relatively high concentrations of Ba, Sr, Rb, Mo, Cu and Au. The ESS hosts many base (Cu, Mo) and precious (Au) metal occurrences, including: (1) porphyry style Cu-Au-Mo disseminated sulfide deposits, (2) Cu-Au deposits in volcanic rocks near the ESS contact, and (3) pyritic gold mineralization in east-west trending shear zones. The ESS is well defined by concentrical zoning on the aeromagnetic vertical gradient color map, and displays four linear trends, which are assumed to be structural lineaments, at 035°-055°, 320°-300°, eastwest, and north-south. The main mineral occurrences related to the stock display a preferred spatial association with the east-west linear magnetic trends.The ESS is preferentially located along a major structure and was emplaced late in the evolution of the Abitibi subprovince like other felsic alkaline plutons. This stock is similar to late-tectonic mineralized felsic alkaline intrusions of the Kirkland Lake and Larder Lake mining districts in Ontario, and to the Allard stock in the U.S.A. which is associated with gold and base metal mineralization. Similarities also exist with younger alkaline plutons associated with Cu-Mo-Au porphyry deposits in the Canadian Cordillera, which formed in tensional tectonic environments. The felsic alkaline magma may have formed by partial melting of deeply buried supracrustal rocks, concomitant with the development of deep fractures such as the Cadillac Fault. In such an environment, hydrothermal solutions carrying remobilized metals from deep supracrustal rocks may have deposited gold and base metals in structural traps. Plutons similar to the ESS should be good targets for mineral exploration. Résumé - Le Stock de East Sullivan (SES) est une intrusion composite alcaline d’âge tardiarchéen, situé dans le camp minier de Val d’Or. Trois principaux faciès ont été identifiés: une monzonite sensu stricto, une monzonite porphyrique et un porphyre trachytique vert. Les données chimiques montrent que ce groupe des roches monzonitiques est relativement homogène en composition avec des concentrations élevées de Na2O, K2O, Ba, Sr, Rb, Zr, Mo et ETRL, définissant une suite alcaline typique. Cet alkalin stock peut être facilement distingué des autres unités géologiques de la région de Val d’Or, tel le batholite de Bourlamaque, par une concentration élevée de Ba, Sr, Rb, Mo, Cu et d’Au. Le SES contient plusieurs importants prospects de métal précieux (Au) et de métaux de base (Cu, Mo), incluant: (1) une minéralisation disséminée de type porphyre Cu-Mo-Au, (2) une minéralisation de Cu-Au dans les roches volcaniques encaissantes hôtesses près du contact et (3) une minéralisation d’or pyritique dans une zone de cisaillement de direction est-nordest. Le SES est bien défini sur la carte aéromagnétique en couleurs du gradient vertical par des zonages concentriques, où quatre linéaments structuraux ont été reconnus: 035°-55°, 320°-300°, est-ouest, et nord-sud. Les principales zones minéralisées spatialement associées au stock sont généralement situées soit près des linéaments magnétiques est-ouest, soit le long de ceux-ci.Le SES semble s’être mis en place le long d’une structure majeure, développée tardivement dans l’évolution de la Sous-province abitibienne, comme les autres plutons alcalins felsiques. Ce stock est similaire à la suite tardi-tectonique d’intrusions alcalines minéralisées des camps miniers de Kirkland Lake et de Larder Lake en Ontario, ou"

Jan 1, 1996

By M. Kataoka, Y. Obara

It is known that compressive strength and tensile strength of rocks vary significantly with specimen size. Rocks are composed of crystals and grains in a fabric that includes flaws such as microcracks, grain boundaries and pores. As the likelihood of including severer flaws becomes greater for a larger specimen, the strengths are small. On the other hand, the size effect in the fracture toughness of rocks has not been made clear until now because there are few studies focused on it. In this paper, Semi- Circular Bend (SCB) test was performed using Kimachi sandstone with various specimen sizes. A shape of the specimen is a semi-circular disc with an artificial notch. The specimens were prepared with various thickness t and radius r as the following two groups; t was changed from 10 to 37.5 mm with r = 37.5 mm in the specimen of group (a), and r was changed from 12.5 to 150 mm with t/r = 0.8 in the specimen of group (b). As a result, there was no significant change in the fracture toughness with different t. On the other hand, the fracture toughness increased with increasing r and converged on a certain constant value in a range larger than approximately 70 mm of r. Consequently it was clear that the size effect in the fracture toughness of the sandstone exists.

Jan 1, 2015

By T. R. Skerry, H. P. Hudson, T. E. Warren

"ALTHOUGH coal is generally the cheapest fuel on the basis of heating value it has been at a disadvantage in competition with other fuels because means have not been available for efficient •Conversion of its thermal energy to mechanical work. Taking the •railway application •as an example, the cost of Diesel oil is about three times that of its thermal equivalent in coal, but the overall efficiency of a Diesel locomotive is about five times that of a coal-fired steam locomotive. Accordingly, the Canadian railways are replacing all coal-fired steam Locomotives, as they are retired from service, with Diesel units. This conversion in itself represents a major loss to the coal industry because the value of railway fuel is approximately 130 million dollars per year, and there are other applications in the medium power range where oil is displacing coal. There is, therefore, a strong incentive to attempt development of an efficient coal-burning engine.Coal has never been a promising fuel for reciprocating internal combustion engines because of the time required for its combustion in pulverized form . This is not less than one-tenth of a second so that the speed of such an engine would have to be very slow. There are also serious difficulties of a mechanical nature arising from the necessity for intermittent combustion and the use of close-fitting pistons."

Jan 1, 1952

By L. R. Bower

"This paper describes a highly versatile variable speed unit with a torque multiplication feature as a direct replacement for a fluid coupling .The unit is comprised of a modulating clutch with torque converter and lock-up options.The UCD does not start or stop the motor. This is carried out in the normal manner.The UCD continually monitors and rapidly regulates the output speed to the requirement of a set point demand from input signals or a pre-set program with full manual override.The pre-set program can include start and stop ramps, top speed and minimum speed regulation and also mid-speed set point with security for man-riding, etc. Speed variation is from zero to 100% on a constant duty basis.The input signals can be from any source, e.g. belt weigher. load profile bunker probes, mine monitoring system, etc.The UCD when fitted with a torque converter has a torque multiplication feature which automatically provides a starting torque up to two and a half times greater than the full load torque without exceeding the normal motor power levels.IntroductionIt is common practice in the mining industry to drive conveyors, whether they be belt or chain, through a transmission system incorporating a fluid coupling between the driving motor and gear-box .However, there are drawbacks and in an effort to attain a better degree of drive and control, two-speed motors - inverters cycle- converters - hydrostatic drives, etc ., have been introduced."

Jan 1, 1986

By M. Maleki-Moghaddam

At the concentration plant of the Gol-E-Gohar Iron Ore Company (Iran) three 9 m × 2.05 m AG mills (fixed speed) are used in parallel in a dry operation. The performance of AG mills has been lower than the target value indicated by an increase in the product size (P80) from 450 µm (target) to 515 µm and low power draw (50% of nominal). By simulation it was found that increasing the liner lifter face angle from 7 to 30o while keeping the original lifter height (i.e., 22.5 cm) could provide an appropriate charge trajectory. When the proposed liners installed in one of the AG mills, the throughput increased by 27%; when 5% (v/v) balls were added the throughput increased by 40%. The product size also decreased from 515 to 501 µm.

Jan 1, 2012

By D. Pacey

"This paper reviews the installation, start-up, and operation of a comprehensive monitoring and targeting management technique in which all plant utilities (i.e., electricity, natural gas, compressed air, and water) are managed as controllable resources in the same way that raw materials, mined ore, personnel and capital are managed.The essential elements of monitoring and targeting (M&T) include:•gathering in a systematic, disciplined way the utility information by energy account centres;•closely monitoring the utilities used in each centre and comparing them with production on a common time base (e.g., kWh/ton per day);•bench marking and target setting to pro-vide attainable energy reduction goals which can be further refined as they are achieved; and•establishing an implementation plant that may provide efficiency enhancing benefits to various operating areas within the plant.The M&T system will reduce utility consumption per unit of production on a continuing basis.This would translate into sustained operating cost and waste. M&T will also provide better information for assessing the plant operation and progressively implementing further enhancements."

Jan 1, 1997

By W. Kunda, J P. Warner

SHERRITT GORDON Mines Limited annually produce 300,-000 pounds of pure cobalt by processing a nickel-cobalt-copper-iron sulphide ore which is mined at Lynn Lake, Manitoba. The ore (containing 0.04 per cent Co) is •concentrated to give a concentrate containing l 1-12 per cent nickel, about 2.0 per cent .copper, and 0.25-0.35 per cent cobalt, which is treated at the Refinery in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. The concentrate is leached in an ammoniacal solution of ammonium sulphate using compressed air as the oxidant. After filtration the leach solution contains, besides nickel and cobalt, copper ammines, sulpharnates and salts of various thionic acids. The copper is removed by precipitation as sulphide and the sulphur compounds converted to ammonium sulphate by a combined oxidation and hydrolysis treatment. The purified solution •Containing about 45 gpl of nickel and 1 gpl of cobalt is treated with gaseous hydrogen under pressure at 350°F to precipitate metallic nickel powder, the precipitation 'being terminated when the nickel content of the solution is about 0.8-1 gpl. Only about

Jan 1, 1962

By Yoshimasa Funakawa, Kazuhiro Seto, Akio Kobayashi

A new hot rolled high strength steel consisting of ferrite matrix and nanometer¬sized precipitates was developed. The ultra fine precipitates were identified as TiMoC2, and the strengthening by the precipitates was evaluated more than 300MPa in case of TS/800MPa grade steel. Due to the strengthening effect of the ultra fine precipitates, alloy elements for solid solution hardening can be reduced. It is notable that the steel shows very high yield strength (730MPa in case of TS/800MPa) and very high local elongation leading to excellent stretch flange formability at the same time. The mechanical properties of the steel are attractive for chassis parts and structural parts of auto body. The steel has been produced commercially, and applied to the parts successfully.

Jan 1, 2004

By John C. Wilmot, Robert E. Brewer, Royce J. Smith

In March 2003, Phelps Dodge started up an innovative pressure leach facility for processing copper concentrates at the Bagdad mine in Arizona. This paper describes the development of the concentrate leaching plant at Bagdad and the operational results from start up to present. Optimization efforts and an approach to mineralogical modeling of the concentrate to calculate oxygen utilization are also presented.

Jan 1, 2004

By C. O. Campbell

THE recognition by C. W. McKee, field engineer for Springer Sturgeon Gold Mines, Limited, in the fall of 1940, of the economic possibilities of a small outcrop of baryres near Pembroke, in Hants county, Nova Scotia, followed by aggressive exploration and development by the Company, has placed Canada for the first time in its history in the position of becoming a major producer of barytes and its products. In past years, production of this mineral in Canada has been unimportant. Thus the coral output from 1885 ro 1933, inclusive, amounted to only 41,027 short tons, following which there was no production until 1939. Deposits in Nova Scotia, and particularly in the Lake Ainslie district, Cape Breton, have been the main source of supply, with a production between 1866 and 1925 of 31,689 tons. Following the examination of the outcrop of baryres near Pembroke by Mr. C. W. McKee in October, 1940, the area surrounding it was trenched, and, as this work gave encouraging results, a diamond drilling programme was commenced. A grid system was laid our and sixteen holes aggregating 2809.3 feet were put down, spaced at 100-foot intervals, the deepest hole being 300 feet. This drilling outlined a body of high-grade baryres over 600 feet long and 200 to 250 feet wide, with an average depth of 120 feet and estimated to contain well over one million tons of ore. The limits of the body were reached on the west, north, and southwest, but the drilling was suspended before the eastern limit was determined. Quarrying operations, and construction of a 100-ton mill, were commenced in February, 1941. The mill was placed in operation on May 29th, and on June 15th, eight months after the initial discovery, the first shipment of 2,500 long rons of milled baryres was made to Trinidad, British West Indies.

Jan 1, 1942

By Pier-Olivier Devin, Daniel Hodouin, Maryam Sadeghi, COREM, Claude Bazin, François Lavoie

"Spiral concentrators are used for processing coal and heavy minerals such as it is the case for the concentration of iron oxide from light silica gangue. The concentration process for iron ore usually consists of a rougher bank of spirals followed by two stages of spiral cleaning. The process control applied to the concentration circuit aims at maintaining a target iron content of the final concentrate and is mainly conducted by adjusting the wash water addition and the position of the splitter gates at the discharge of the spiral. This paper describes the use of a simulator to study control strategies for a gravity concentration circuit using spirals.INTRODUCTION The Canadian iron ore mines are located in the Northern part of Quebec and in Labrador (Neal, 2000). These iron ores consist mainly of hematite with some ore bodies rich in magnetite and ilmenite. The processing of the coarse hematite iron ore consists of the extraction from an open pit mine, followed by the conventional crushing and autogeneous grinding of the ore to obtain a particle size smaller than 1.2 mm. The ground ore assaying 40% hematite (Fe2O3) with quartz (SiO2) as the main gangue is processed by spirals to produce an iron oxide concentrate assaying 90 to 95% hematite.Spirals separate the particles according to their specific gravity and size (Burt, 1984; Bazin et al., 2014). These environment friendly devices have been used for decades and are still used for the preparation of coal and for the concentration of heavy minerals such as iron oxide (Staff, 1977; Wills, 1992). However very little information is available concerning the control of gravity concentration circuits. This paper analyzes the control practice of a gravity concentration circuit using a simulator. The paper consists of 3 sections. The first section describes the operation of spirals and spiral concentration circuits. The second section briefly describes the simulator and shows some simulation results for a gravity concentration circuit. The third section shows the application of the simulator for the study of control strategies for a spiral concentration circuit."

Jan 1, 2016

By Sylvie Lévesque, Cory Hennessey, Daniel Amariei

"In the iron ore industry, fine particles recovery is an important concern in terms of process performance and production costs. Continuous efforts are thus devoted to increase the efficiency in handling these fines.The Reflux Classifier (RC) is a relatively new technology that is mainly used in the coal and industrial minerals industries. The operating principle of this system is based on three mechanisms: hindered settling, autogenous dense medium and lamella settling. A preliminary evaluation of the Reflux Classifier technology for the beneficiation of iron ore fines was formerly done at the pilot scale using a RCTM300 unit. The good results obtained, using iron ore fines from screened spiral stream, made this technology very attractive for the iron industry. However, the high capacity of the RCTM300 unit (1–3 t/h), makes it unsuitable for R&D purposes. Thus, a smaller unit, the RCTM100, was assessed to validate the performances obtained with the RCTM300.This paper summarizes the performances obtained with the RCTM100. The challenges of the scale-down related to the adaptability of this technology to the iron ore industry are also presented. The results are compared to the RCTM300 performances, as well as benchmarked against sink-float tests. The metallurgical results on feed and products issued after the test work with the RCTM100 unit are supported by mineralogical characterization using a Mineral Liberation Analyzer.INTRODUCTIONFine particles recovery by physical separation means is a historical concern (Holland-Batt, 1992; Peukert and Wadenpohl, 2001; Srivastavaa et al., 2001; Majumder et al., 2003). Attempts to improve fine particle recovery at the laboratory, pilot and industrial scales adopting different strategies with traditional equipment or assessing new promising devices such as the MGS (multi-gravity separator), the Kelsey jig, the Yang jig, etc. (Kim, 2002; Goudreau, 2008; Kerr, 2012) have yielded variable success."

Jan 1, 2016

By Karl J. C. Harries

"3.1. INTRODUCTIONThis chapter discusses briefly the common law concepts of fiduciary relationship, constructive trust, and breach of confidence. Following a discussion of confidentiality agreements, the last section of the chapter compares and comments on two common law cases, the LAC Case and the Metalore Case. Civil law readers should not ignore this chapter or § 3.5. the comparison as, to a large extent, the concepts and comments are universal, even though the procedures for applying them may vary.1It should be appreciated that, regardless of the legal system, if the Court sees that a wrong has been done, it will attempt to right that wrong, either by awarding monetary damages against the wrong-doer to compensate the injured party or by attempting to make the injured party whole again by such means as negating an agreement (as in the Metalore Case) or returning property to a wronged party (as in the LAC Case). The methodology for accomplishing either of these results will vary with the jurisdiction, and the two are not mutually exclusive.These two Ontario cases have been chosen, not because they are the only ones available – they certainly are not – but because both are relatively well known within the minerals industry and they deal with problems that may face any explorationist (although it is to be hoped that the facts of the Metalore Case do not represent “normal” behaviour). Each judgment offers useful guidelines, as well as insight into a judge’s approach to problems, the type of information he expects to receive, how his mind works, and, particularly in the Court of Appeal judgment in the Metalore Case, how he might reason through and “justify” his decisions.3.2. SOME LEGAL CONCEPTS In order to appreciate some of the matters discussed in this chapter, it is necessary to have some idea of the common law considerations of fiduciary relationships, constructive trust, and breach of confidence."

Jan 1, 2003

By Lynne Bowen

"On the da y shift in Number One Mine at Nanaimo on Vancouver Island, on May 3, 1887, William Griffiths, a coal miner with many years experience, fired a shot to advance the face of the crosscut. A flame ran out for a distance of fifteen feet along the roof and then extended up the slope for ten to twelve feet, and although many would have called this a blowing out shot, Griffiths said it was just a feeder. ""A blower"", he said, ""would have caused an explosion."" 1There was no explosion. Griffiths reported gas and the area was cleared for three hours and then work resumed. When the shift changed at 3:00 p.m., the fireman reported all places clear of gas and the ventilation good.2The ventilation in Number One Mine was the best anyone had ever seen. The air in the mine was almost too cold. The current was so strong that it sometimes blew out the flame on the miners' fish oil lamps. It delivered five to six hundred cubic feet of air for every man and animal working in the mine. The law required only one hundred cubic feet 3The miners considered Number One to be relatively safe. The manager was proud of the mine and its up-to-date equipment"". Recently, there had been reports from France and America about the explosiveness of coal dust, but the manager did not think his mine was sufficiently dusty to be dangerous.5 The dust lay thick on the floor of the mine. Sometimes when a shot was fired the dust rose in great clouds. When a miner was shovelling it, the dust would billow up and be carried off by the current of air. The dust was also in the roof and in the stopings, put there intentionally to fill up the spaces and prevent the accumulation of methane gas."

Jan 1, 1992

By Jun Deng

The aim of this paper is to study the scientificity and reliability of three coal gas indices used to predict coal fire disasters, namely Graham?s ratio, CO/CO2 ratio, Litton ratio and their different characteristics and service conditions. Data from a programmed temperature experiment were applied to check their veracity and accuracy. Each index performed well in detecting the level of a fire. We conclude that it is better to redefine the definition through experimentation before applying a given index. Integrated analysis of the results can provide reliable reference data for predicting spontaneous combustion of coal.

Aug 1, 2013

By J. H. Pee, Y. J. Kim, H. U. Lee, G. H. Kim

The general recycling process of tungsten scrap to produce tungsten raw materials (tungstic acid, ammonium paratungstate (APT) and WO3) have been carried out by the oxidation, milling, sodium-fusion, dissolution, and extraction processes. Many studies on the high temperature oxidation of tungsten scrap have investigated various aspects such as swelling kinetics, fracture resistance, and the effect of alloying composition. However, the accelerating factors on the scrap oxidation rate during oxidation were not considered here. In general, oxidized products were fused with sodium carbonate or sodium hydroxide to produce Na2WO4. Later in the process, solid Na2WO4 was dissolved in water. This process required considerable reaction time and was a costly process. Therefore, the aim of this study was to increase the solubility of solid oxidized products to produce Na2WO4 solution by hydrothermal reflux method. Na2WO4 solution was used to produce CaWO4 and H2WO4 by general chemical reactions with calcium chloride and hydrochloric acid. Ammonia solution was also added to the tungstic acid to produce APT. In this study, the effect of ammonia addition on the APT precipitation process was investigated in detail.

Jan 1, 2015

By W. E. Roscoe

The probability of making an exploration discovery in Canada can be calculated from Derry's (1970) data on exploration expenditures and number of discoveries over the last nineteen years. Considering an average exploration "try" to be $30,000, the probability of a discovery with one try has decreased tenfold from about 0.01 in 1951 to 0.001 in 1969. A plot of these probabilities can be extrapolated to the future, giving a 1969-71 three-year average probability of 0.00096 with 90 per cent confidence limits of 0.00042 and 0.00153. Using this probability, various calculations can be made, such as (1) the probability of making at least one discovery for any given exploration expenditure, (2) the probability of ultimate ruin or survival of the exploration investment process and (3) the expected value of an exploration investment. There is a critical minimum amount per discovery that must be re-invested in exploration, no matter how large the original investment is, for exploration to survive at all in the long run. Currently, this critical minimum is $31,200,000 with 90 per cent confidence limits of $19,600,000 and $71,400,000.

Jan 1, 1971