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In the last two decades, equipment used in the coal mining operations has become much more sophisticated. The way that work is organised and performed in the industry has also changed significantly. Changes in equipment specification or procedures inevitably means that the risk associated with that equipment or procedure also changes. In an attempt to address this the Joint Coal Board Occupational Health and Safety Trust (JCB) commissioned the University of New South Wales Mining Research Centre and Mine Site Technologies to perform a feasibility study into the development and deployment of Virtual Reality (VR) based training simulators in the New South Wales coal industry. The main aims of the study were to identify, the key providers of VR Technology, the VR options available to the JCB and the information that would need to be included in any simulator. It was anticipated that a critical assessment of these components would produce a format for a cost effective, state of the art simulator that could be readily accessed by all mines. The expectations of the feasibility study were that VR should offer three-dimensional (3D) simulations that are interactive, high-resolution models of real environments based on best practice Safety Management Plans. It was anticipated that the simulations would allow trainees to experience the consequences of poor decision-making and allow them to learn from their mistakes in a safe and forgiving environment. It was envisaged that such simulators would become an addition to the existing training methods used in the industry.

Jan 1, 2003

By P Dean, M Elmouttie

Radar monitors are now widely used in surface mining for monitoring slope deformations and predicting failure events. Their introduction has facilitated better management of risk associated with slope failure during mining and therefore protection of personnel and equipment. However, a wellrecognised problem is that radar monitors only measure deformation directed towards the detector (line-of-sight bias). This bias can lead to misinterpretation of deformation size, rate and failure mechanism, and therefore miscalculation of failure volume, which can significantly impact safety and productivity. This paper presents recently completed research and field trials into the feasibility of using low cost vision systems to mitigate this issue. It has been demonstrated that by integrating a computer vision system with an existing slope monitor, high precision tracking of features in the field of view can be performed. Combined with assumptions on the deformation characteristics, the true 3D deformation vector can be estimated. The applicability of using this technique for monitoring iron ore mine slopes is discussed.

Nov 8, 2021

By D Whitworth

The Golden Pig mine has embarked on a diamond drill program design philosophy that increases flexibility of the program by greatly increased drill pattern densities. The use of standard broad pattern diamond drilling at the Golden Pig mine has previously lead to operational inefficiencies and impacted significantly on the costs of the mine. The diamond drill program philosophy and its interaction with mine planning is explained. The case study of the E lode mining as used to internally justify the increased drill densities is detailed.

Jan 1, 2002

By D Smith, D Reid, D Bradshaw, C Brough

The Merensky Reef at Northam Platinum Mine in South Africa is characterised by a high degree of variability with respect to reef elevation (difficult to mine), as well as mineralogy and texture (difficult to process). Development along strike and down dip of multiple reef types has led to unpredictable run-of-mine characteristics that pose problems for the mineral processing circuit at Northam. Following mining terminology, Normal, Transitional (NP2) and Pothole (P2) Merensky reef types can be defined, and this geometallurgical study aims to characterise and understand the relationship between their mineralogical characteristics and laboratory scale batch flotation performance. The plagioclase-rich NP2 reef ore is the easiest ore to process in terms of capacity for high mill throughput as well as flotation performance. The lack of very fine-grained disseminated sulfide textures in the NP2 reef ore results in better liberation characteristics relative to the Normal and P2 reef types. Consequently, chalcopyrite, pentlandite and sulfide recoveries are highest for the NP2 reef ore. The lack of ferromagnesian minerals in the NP2 reef ore also results in the recovery of the least amount of floatable gangue during flotation tests. The Normal and P2 reef ores are similar to each other, with an orthopyroxene-rich mineralogy with associated alteration minerals. The P2 reef is also characterised by the highest sulfide content and degree of pentlandite liberation. Chalcopyrite, pentlandite and pyrrhotite liberation is only significantly increased by a change in grind for the Normal reef ore. The change in grind, however, only significantly affects pentlandite flotation performance and overall froth stability for the Normal reef ore. However, for all three ores, a small change in grind has a detrimental effect on pentlandite flotation performance.

Jan 1, 2008

Dr Eric Bumstead is to be commended for his recent paper on gold analysis, published in the March 1984 Proceedings. It is not often that someone in industry, rather than academia, takes the time to collect and report on such a volume of data, data which is of interest to everyone involved in gold exploration and development.After reading the paper I felt, as a geochemist and as ayer, that there was another side to this whole question of analysis that few people are aware of, i.e. the problem facing a laboratory and how the laboratory can try to give the customer maximum value for money spent.Analyses for gold are carried out for different reasons, depending on the aims of the geologist or metallurgist who presents the samples. These can broadly be separated into three classes, to answer the following questions.1. "Is there any gold in this sample?"2. "Approximately how much gold is there in this sample?"3. "How much gold is there in this sample?"In every case there is a different balance between accuracy and precision, cost and avoiding chemical problems. By "chemical problems", I mean such possibilities as samples containing high levels of sulphides, gold present as tellurides, cyanide being present, contamination with mercury, and other mineralogical oddities, plus problems such as samples containing grease.There is no such thing as one assay to cover all possibilities.Samples in category I come mostly from early stages of exploration.There are often large numbers of samples, their mineralogy is not well known and hence chemical problems could exist, but the explorer wants assays at a minimum level of precision and expects minimum cost. These characteristics do not easily come together, for although the precision required is low, the accuracy required is high at low levels. A small positive result when the true answer is nil could lead to a fruitless search and a waste of money. Conversely, a nil result, when the true answer is a small but significant level of gold, could lead to the passing over of an area that may warrant further work.Because there are conflicting requirements for this type of assay, the methods chosen must be a compromise and different assayers will balance these requirements differently and come to different conclusions. The methods cover sample preparation, assay sample size and variations in assay techniques.

Jan 1, 1984

By R Shelton

The Big Wainihinihi River and tunnel are located on the western side of the Southern Alps of New Zealand within the active Alpine Fault zone, which marks the boundary between the Pacific and Australian Tectonic Plates. The tunnel was built over 100 years ago to supply water for gold mining, but it now conveys water from a high-energy intake to a canal that supplies three of TrustPower’s hydro-electric power stations with a combined installed generating capacity of 10 MW. Part of the tunnel passes through an unstable 50° schist slope, which fi rst suffered a wedge failure in the 1929 Arthur’s Pass Earthquake and was reinstated in the mid-1970s for hydro generation. In 2008, TrustPower’s monitoring system showed that the wedge failure had remobilised and that urgent remediation was required.Harker Underground Construction (Harker) was awarded a design-build contract to restore the tunnel to service by tunnelling a new central section. Their geotechnical engineers, Peters and Cheung, reviewed the tunnel’s stability and proposed a new, safer tunnel alignment, deep behind the failure wedges. This work was based on their failure model, cost-benefit studies, and engineering geology completion mapping at the time of re-opening.Construction innovation was an important factor in ensuring the project’s success, as were detailed geological and geotechnical information, a robust methodology, strong client relationship and planning. To suit the varying rock conditions and restricted space, Harker combined a traditional drill-and-blast method with light-weight modular steel sets and timber supports to reduce construction costs and mitigate support risk. To make material handing easier in the tight conditions, a special electric locomotive was designed and built and blasting confi gurations were adapted to suit varying rock conditions in the highly fractured schist.The isolated site meant interesting and unexpected challenges, particularly communications and resources (both human and material). Despite that, the project was completed within budget, on schedule, and with no lost-time injuries.

Mar 8, 2011

By S D. Dessureault

In large coal strip mines, there are many different processes at work: stripping, overburden removal using trucks/shovels, cast blasting, slot dozer pushing, more fragmentation and further truck/shovel benches. A key component to each of these steps is the use of machines. In modern operations, most machine costs are tracked within Enterprise systems that transact costs and repair work order management. Similarly, in contemporary mines most machines are tracked using technology that provides precise performance measures for each key process. Such technologies include productivity monitors on draglines, dozers and drills and fleet management systems for trucks and shovels. Linking these two sources of seemingly disparate data û costs and performance by machine û would allow for the precise calculation of unit costs by specific machine. This is similar to an activity-based costing system, except in this machine-based system, calculations are made at an even finer granular level. There are many uses for such an integrated information system in mine planning and performance management, both in real-time and through historical analysis.A real-time fleet costs (FLC) measurement process was developed as part of a larger blending-related, multi-million dollar project centred on a centralised remote control room developed at the University of ArizonaÆs Mining Information Systems and Operations Management Mine Control Center. The FLC component of the overall blending system would allow a mine controller to manage the equipment fleet by viewing its cost in real time and, when mixed with other revenue-related components, the exact profit. For example, a mine controller may show high utilisation while still maintaining a production surplus. This could occur, for example, if the equipment is driven long distances. This might appear in traditional performance metrics as æhigh production performanceÆ, but in reality may prove less profitable. This paper discusses the technical development of the FLC, its deployment and its impact on controller performance, and compares mine profitability before and after its application.

Sep 26, 2011

The desire for minimising impacts of mining activities on the environment, and in particular, water resources; is usually tempered by the costs and practicalities of implementing æbest practiceÆ measures. This paper briefly discusses the theoretical and practical options for water management for typical mines and quarries in a range of environments to assess if adverse impacts can be completely eliminated or at least be perceived as doing so. The regulatory requirements for water resources management are usually an essential part of mine planning and operations that can be a primary focus for all stakeholders. As such they can distract attention from implementing best practice in water management for the benefit of the environment and the community for altruistic reasons that have a long-term benefit for the mining industry as a whole. Cost-effective options for supply, demand and quality management of water that comply with basic regulatory requirements are readily available. Making a mine æinvisibleÆ in a practical sense, in terms of impacts on water resources would require eliminating potentially contaminated discharges, minimising demand, maximising reuse and recycling and putting back a healthy proportion of the clean water that is taken out of the natural environment for use in mine operations. This may sound simple enough and there are many well-known standard approaches that are usually applied. But which are the most effective, and who benefits? New approaches to water management are becoming more affordable and can benefit the bottom line as well as the environment, but can they make a mine ædisappearÆ? The perception of whether a mine is æinvisibleÆ in terms of its impacts on water resources is as important as the actions taken to try to achieve such an objective. The viewpoints and thresholds of perceptions of the different stakeholders are therefore relevant to how ævisibleÆ mining activities become.

Jan 1, 2006

By O Otgonbayar, B Bayarmaa, D Batbyamba, S Amar-Amgalan, K H. Natsagdorj, J Nomin-Erdene, B Boldkhuu, T S. Sainzaya

The Argyle deposit in the Kimberley region of Western Australia was the world’s largest accumulation of natural diamonds. Following its discovery in 1979, the mining of associated alluvial diamonds commenced in 1983, followed by the pipe in late 1985. Over the life of the mine to its closure in November 2020, Argyle produced approximately 900 million carats of diamonds. Argyle diamonds are distinctive in having a predominance of brown colours and rare highly-prized pink diamonds, which are a signature of the deposit. The 3D geological model developed from mining and deep drilling shows that Argyle is a composite pipe formed by the coalescence of several steep-sided diatremes, each with their own feeder zones at depth, that were erupted along a NNE-trending fault. The ~1.2 Ga Argyle pipe is comprised of diamondiferous olivine lamproite volcaniclastic rocks and intruded by sparse olivine lamproite dykes. The volcaniclastic rocks are predominantly comprised of unconsolidated quartz-rich lapilli and coarse ash deposits formed by numerous phreatomagmatic eruptions of olivine lamproite magma through Mesoproterozoic water-rich sands and silts. Post-emplacement deformation has tilted the orebody 30° to the north and regional strike-slip faulting has offset, segmented, and elongated the orebody. Recent significant modifications of the geological model resulted from underground block cave operations, producing several critical lessons learnt. Diamond grade and quality reconciliation issues warranted a geological investigation which resulted in the recognition of new volcaniclastic olivine lamproite domains with a broad range of diamond grades, including some very high-grade units. The new lamproite domains had a significant effect on the block cave mining and resultant recovery of diamonds. The new findings enable a more coherent and detailed geological understanding of the volcanic emplacement and paragenetic sequence of the Argyle AK1 pipe. Structural modelling of the deposit also played a major role in the block cave mining tonnage recoveries and daily operations. The re-examination of the geology of the Argyle pipe and the results of this new information reinforces the need for ongoing robust geological work both in the early stages of mining a deposit and continued during the life of the mine.

Mar 22, 2022

By Pandey A. K, Srivastava A, Das A

Drilling and blasting constitute important activity in mining operations and account for around 20% of the total excavation cost. The utilization coefficient of energy for explosions of the fragmentation type is hardly 15 to 2035 and an enhancement in this is possible only through optimization of blast design. Designing a 'blast is a complex planning task, which for optimum results calls for matching the energy level of the explosive, rock properties and bench geometry. Optimum blast design needs a comprehensive study and an objective analysis of the intersecting elements. A cost optimised approach is often adopted with due consideration for all the cost sectors viz., drilling, blasting, loading, hauling dumping, and primary crushing, contributing to the overall miring cost. The present study deals with a performance prediction model which predicts the optimum burden for an explosive system in a given rock type to produce a certain desired fragment size. The model is framed on the inputs : shovel size, drill size, unit cost of drilling, bench dimensions, rock density, bond index, unit cost of explosive, maximum work potential. The model has been extended to compute the drilling and blasting costs for an assumed size of the bench to be blasted per round, so as to arrive at the overall cost optimization from a number of explosive systems. A comparative cost calculation with different explosive systems has been presented for a typical iron ore mine in India.

Jan 1, 1990

Modern, high-output, continuous process plant requires heavy capital expenditure and is exroected to achieve a high rate of return upon the investment made, thus its high utilisation is an economic necessity. Downtime is extremely expensive not only in terms of idle capital but also in terms of lost production and revenue. A sound maintenance management system can alleviate the problem of unscheduled stoppages and a key document in the maintenance system is the Work Order because it both initiates work and conveys maintenance control information back to the administrator. This key document must be supported by an information base that provides technical data, job procedures, spare parts, history and costing. To be effective this information must be easily and immediately available to all concerned. Computer technology has developed extremely rapidly over the last ten years and with it a wide variety of on-line computerised maintenance systems. Selection of the most appropriate system for a given industrial plant is not a straight-forward process. Computer requirements for hardware and software must be matched to the requirements of the maintenance system and such matching must be carried out in an ordered and rational way. At Kalgoorlie Nickel Smelter, time was taken to review the existing maintenance system, select, study and test the new computerised maintenance management package and plan its implementation. As a result, the initial target of equipment recognition has been achieved on schedule and within budget.

Jan 1, 1987

By H W. Scriba

The development and improvement of computer-based process simulation packages over the past 20 years has provided process engineers with a powerful tool to use in the design of complex metallurgical plants. The use of such modelling tools has enabled the design of process plants that minimise operating and capital costs whilst optimising plant efficiency and recovery. Almost every new project developed in the current market is underpinned by a simulation of the process. In line with engineering best practice this simulation should be based on laboratory/pilot plant test work results and sound assumptions. Any errors that are not identified in the development of the process simulation may have significant effects on the final design and operation of the processing plant. Developing a simulation of the process in a comprehensive, logical and auditable manner is thus essential in ensuring the simulation accurately represents the expected process plant behaviour. A methodology that ensures these requirements are met has been developed by SNC-Lavalin Australia and is described in this paper. The methodology includes the major review stages of data collection, model planning, model building and optimisation, model review, scenario testing and options development, and model reporting. All of these stages should incorporate comprehensive client interaction and review by a suitably qualified representative. In applying these methodologies SNC-Lavalin Australia ensures that the process simulation model developed can be confidently utilised in the design of the process plant, and in the estimation of operating and capital costs, whilst ensuring that engineering best practices are met.

Jan 1, 2008

The impact of moves to introduce Abori- ginal land rights was felt in the Northern Territory as early as 1972 when the Federal Government froze the processing of all appli- cations for mining interests over vacant Crown land. The Aboriginal Land Rights (Northern Territory) Act was finally proclaimed on Aust- ralia Day 1977 and since that date the mining industry and the Territory legislature have struggled to make the Act work. Despite these efforts long delays have been experienced by those required to negotiate mining and explor- ation agreements under the Act. In fact explor- ation on Aboriginal land has been effectively stiffled since the introduction of the Abori- ginal Land Rights Act. The Northern Territory government and the mining industry have both sought amendment to the Act to remedy some of its more onerous problems. These efforts have generally been fruitless. Some of the recommendations put forward by Mr Justice Toohey following his recent review of the Act would provide relief in some important areas. However, any such improvements are more than offset by a number of Mr Justice Toohey's recommendations which would severely disadvantage the vast majority of Territorians. A recent survey of mining companies seeking exploration licences over Aboriginal land indicates that many of the existing diffi- culties could be overcome without significant amendment to the Act but rather by the adoption of a positive administrative approach by the Land Councils. It is now up to the Commonwealth and the Land Councils to demonstrate that their Act can work without crippling the Northern Territory economy and its mining industry.

Jan 1, 1984

I am honoured to be given the opportunity to share with you my thoughts on what will be the essential characteristics of æThe Mining Company for the 21st CenturyÆ. For me the 21st century is all about globalisation and the challenges and the opportunities that globalisation presents for the mining industry. To play on the global stage the successful mining companies must develop profiles that are global in: their operations diversity, their partnership relationships diversity, their customer relationships diversity, their workforce diversity, and their shareholder diversity. In my view æbigÆ will count in the 21st century, but big overlaid with quality: quality assets, quality people, quality partners, quality customer relationships, and quality image and reputation. Last year, Rio TintoÆs Leon Davis said when he addressed the Minerals Council of AustraliaÆs annual conference that Australian resource companies that wish to become global operators must develop an unequivocal international identity that will make that company a known and trusted quality wherever it seeks to do business. He went on to say that structuring and operating a business in a way that consistently manifests the qualities that inspire respect and evoke confidence is vital. I absolutely concur with what Leon said. Unfortunately, the fact is that, as we stand at the beginning of the 21st century, our industry and many of our companies are no better accepted by the world community than was the case five, ten, 15 or even 20 years ago. In fact, in some cases, the warmth of the acceptance may have subsided. To some extent the demonstrations that we saw recently in Seattle and Davos reflect a growing distrust, disquiet and cynicism in our communities. Here, however, I see an opportunity. While on the one hand the mood of disquiet presents many challenges, it also provides those of us who are willing to get out on the front foot in addressing the issues, and engaging in the dialogue, with a very significant opportunity to create a major competitive advantage. It provides the opportunity to earn respect and the opportunity to develop a reputation as a company that is sought as a joint venture partner and a company that is welcomed by governments and communities. Importantly, also, people will seek employment with such a company and will invest in such a company. The challenge is to change the way we behave and the way we are perceived by all the key stakeholders. Many of our industryÆs traditional skills are now commodities à many can be à and are out-sourced. The new critical skill for the 21st century à the real competitive advantage à will come from creating a real and genuine understanding of our role and what we stand for. Everything we do should demonstrate not only sound business principles, but also an understanding of the political, social, cultural and environmental impacts of our activities - at an international and a local level. This concept isnÆt new - but for large companies such as BHP, where we operate in more than 20 countries with diverse cultures, languages and religions - it requires enormous energy and dedication. It is complex. It is difficult. But I believe it is absolutely fundamental to our future.

Jan 1, 2000

Mineral policy is now generally regarded as a function reserved to government. Government is reponsible for the economic health and progress of nations, and must therefore interest itself in minerals as a basic national resource. Government should therefore identify objectives which it sees as suitable and necessary for the mineral industry so that the industry can play its part in achieving national goals. It should provide the legislative framework and policy guidelines to enable these objectives to be achieved. The essential objective of a national mineral policy should be rational development of the nation's minerals resources. To achieve this, it need not be too formal; broad guidelines are enough. But it must be dynamic, to keep pace with the changing circumstances of the mineral industry in the world scene and the changing requirements of government. It should be flexible, recognising that there is no such thing as a "typical" mineral deposit; above all it should represent the outcome of a continuing dialogue between government and industry. Both government policy and corporate planning need to be formulated on the practical understanding of the potential economic value of the mineral sector and what it can contribute to the nation's prosperity. There needs to be a common understanding of the wide range of the costs of risks that may arise through the exploration and development stages and of the uncertainties affecting ventures at the production stage. There needs to be a common understanding that the size and importance of the mineral sector is determined in the long run by the level of investment in exploration. The development of a continuing understanding between government and industry should lead to the formulation of ground rules which ensure the continuance of a strong industry able to adapt to the changing world scene and make its contribution to national growth and wellbeing.

Jan 1, 1986

This paper is essentially an address, rather than a detailed presentation of facts, because the third edition of `Nuclear Electricity - An Australian Perspective' has just been completed and will be available for the seminar. That 96-page booklet contains a lot more information than The AusIMM would be prepared to print in the seminar proceedings. Hence I have kept this paper brief, and ask readers to obtain a (free) copy of Nuclear Electricity at the seminar or from The AusIMM. It can be read as a supplement to the paper (or vice versa). According to one of Australia's well known critics of nuclear power, Professor Ian Lowe, `the pro-nuclear lobby's predictions of the future use of nuclear energy .... have been regularly and consistently wrong by large amounts, always overestimating the future demand for uranium" (Aust. Society, April 1989). While I do not accept this as a bald statement applying to all those in favour of increased use of nuclear power, there is sufficient truth in it for it to be credible. Certainly in the 1950s and the 1960s, when the new technology for producing controlled power from atomic fission was first being commercialised, there were some very exaggerated projections of the role of nuclear power. Many people thought that it would take over from fossil fuel fired electricity generation in much the same way as the motor vehicle took over from horse-drawn transport. And these early projections were not simply concerned with electric power generation, they included excavating harbours and digging canals with nuclear explosives.

Jan 1, 1989

By C Hertle, B Goebel, R Fabre

The mining industry maintains a ælove-hateÆ relationship with water. Dewatering, aquifer, water disposal, irrigation, process water, tailings water, run-off water, seepage, leachate and sumps are all terms that are used on a daily basis in the mining industry, highlighting the numerous water usages on site and their associated quality. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001), each year the mining industry consumes over 530 000 ML of water. The increasing recognition of water as a limited and valuable commodity, and the associated environmental concerns with the management of water disposal to the environment has led the industry into improving on-site water management. Progressively, water balance models and water reuse strategies are being developed, incorporating more sophisticated water treatment processes. By way of example, membrane technologies, once restricted to industries such as the pharmaceutical industry or the drinking water industry, are now entering the mining world with the aim of producing clean water of suitable quality for ore processing or for advanced treatment prior to release to the environment. This paper will provide a review of the threats and opportunities linked to water use and recovery/reuse in the mining industry in Australia. It will open with an overview of current water usage and associated quality for various mineral industries and continue with identifying the threats and limitations associated with the quality of available water. It will then present how newly developed water treatment technologies and assessment tools can be incorporated into the system to enhance the recovery and reuse of water on site, reduce the risks associated with securing long-term water supply and further improve production, environment and safety (health risk control).

Jan 1, 2006

By S A. Ravishankar

An overview of flotation reagents used in sulfide and non-sulfide separations, from an industrial perspective, is given in this presentation to highlight the current applications knowledge. The historical and theoretical aspects, which are well documented in numerous books and reviews, will only be highlighted, when necessary, to support the theme of this paper, viz critical analysis of reagent research, design, selection and optimisation with an emphasis on relevance to plant needs and practice. The three types of flotation reagents; viz collectors, frothers and modifiers, used currently in the industry are briefly reviewed; pitfalls and gaps, arising from somewhat arbitrary and reductionistic practice in reagent applications, are identified; and the impact of environmental regulations on current and future reagent development is discussed. The importance of frothers and modifiers, which have received less overall attention than collectors, is highlighted. The need for a rational, holistic (or ætotal systemÆ, ætop-downÆ) approach for reagent design, selection and optimisation is discussed with a view to provide remedies for pitfalls and a platform for filling gaps in reagent chemistry and applications, and to develop reagent technology that can deliver robust solutions to plant needs. Flotation Matrix 100TM, a comprehensive package designed at Cytec to incorporate all the elements of the holistic approach û viz definition of mineralogy and plant needs, rule-based expert system rational reagent selection, and laboratory and plant best practices û will also be described.No paper available for this abstract

Jan 1, 2005

By M Reisi, H Waterer, M Savelsbergh, F Engineer

The Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator (HVCCC) Limited is the primary planning organisation responsible for the export of coal through the Port of Newcastle, Australia. HVCCC stakeholders include producers (mining companies), rail track owners, above rail operators, and terminal operators. The HVCCC is tasked with coordinating the activities of all the corresponding parts of the coal export supply chain so as to maximise the system efficiency. The HVCCC also has a forward looking planning role: with demand for coal expected to double in the next decade, strategic capacity planning is a core activity for the HVCCC. Optimisation and simulation models are key aids in such activity. They are used to suggest and evaluate infrastructure expansions and operating policy changes. These models require input data in the form of shipping stems, which are arrival streams of ships at the port, together with their cargo types and composition, and date and time of arrival.Although everyone is familiar with the expression ægarbage in equals garbage outÆ, relatively little research is dedicated to the issues surrounding input data generation. In this research we seek to redress this, and have developed a method for generating high quality shipping data. Shipping stems used as input should be realistic, reflecting key characteristics of historical patterns. They should accurately represent future demand scenarios. Yet they should also have controllable parameters that can be used to test what-if scenarios, such as are required by the HVCCC to answer questions about future infrastructure or operational plans.Here we review our process for achieving this, and give a case study analysing the effects of different shipping stems on the performance of the coal chain, as measured by a capacity assessment tool. The latter is an optimisation model that takes shipping stem and infrastructure data as input, and calculates key supply chain performance metrics. The potential benefits of alternative demand management strategies are analysed by measuring the performance of the coal chain given different shipping stems obtained via the stem generatorÆs controllable parameters.

Sep 26, 2011

The great philosopher, Marshall McLuhan, is said to have stated that the use of forecasting as a means of guiding future actions is akin to driving an automobile through observations made in the rear-view mirror! In effect, in forecasting it is assumed that there will be an orderly progression from the past into the future, and that the model will be sufficiently unvarying for use to gauge both the directions and the rates of change. The concepts of forecasting have served man well in disciplines in which the relationship between causes and effects can be clearly demonstrated; such as between rainfall and crop yield, for example. These are of no value, however, when conditions change rapidly and unpredictably, or when there is no model at all. Even worse, under such circumstances our preconceived notions may cause us to make some horrendous errors in judgement. Such are the risks at present in attempting to make an assessment of the educational needs of the minerals industry for the coming century! The model, and the conceptions that we have had of the linkages between cause and effect are in disarray. Minerals markets are chaotic, and there is almost no ability to forecast trends in metal values. Linkages between supply and demand seem tenuous. Internationally, producers are struggling for survival. Mine closures, temporary shutdowns, and reopenings are frequent occurrences. Decision-making under uncertainty is probably one of the most certain things about the world mining industry Today!

Jan 1, 1986