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By Dr. O’Neil Thomas J., Donald W. Gentry

"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February." -Mark Twain Although the preceding chapters describe the type of preliminary evaluation frequently performed in the mining industry, it has been assumed that input data are known with certainty-clearly an enormous simplification. In reality, estimates of ore grade, mining cost, metal price, etc., are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty due to the inability to predict the future with much precision. Management would probably not, for example, be equally attracted to two projects each offering a 20% DCFROI-one for a new gold venture in Nevada and the other for an undersea manganese nodule operation in the Pacific. The high risk with the latter investment tells the obvious; there is more to investment decision-making than a deterministic analysis using "best estimates" of input parameters. The science of decision theory normally distinguishes between decisions under uncertainty, where probabilities of various outcomes are unknown; and decisions under risk, where such probabilities can be estimated. The first case is rarely en- countered in practical capital investment analysis in mining, so the remainder of this chapter focuses on that class of problems where rational probability distributions for the future states of input variables can be estimated. RISK IN MINING Risk in the context of this chapter is the unforeseen deviation of individual cash flows from expected values for a capital project. For a mining venture, the source of this uncertainty could be any number of factors relating to such items as ore grade, ore reserve tonnage, operating costs, product prices, etc. With conventional *Adapted from O'Neil, T.J., 1979, "Procedures for the Preliminary Financial Evaluation of Metal Mining Ventures," Computer Methods for the 80s, A. Weiss, ed., AIME, New York, pp. 556-573.

Jan 1, 1984

By AIME AIME

C. H. BENEDICT, chief metallurgist of the Calumet and Hecla Consolidated Copper Co., has pioneered for nearly half a century. Noted for his ammonia leaching process, lie has Iong been responsible for all Calumet and Hecla mill, concentrator, and reclaination plant flowsheets. His influence has spread far beyond his own organization. lie is dean of Lake Superior metallurgists and has contributed greatly toward raising his specialty-the country over-to an honored profession; not merely an honored profession but a profitable one for industry and the public. The leaching process which he developed in 1912 has, since 1915, produced for Calumet and Hecla 250,000 tons of copper from waste tailings at a cost per pound, in 1929, below five cents. It has yielded profits of $35,000,000. In the war just ended, this process proved the only one adaptable to the recovery of copper from gilding-metal¬clad steel strip, and Calumet and Hecla treated more than 50,000 tons of such scrap for the Government.

Jan 1, 1945

By William Blauvelt

THE type of gas producer in which the ashes are fluxed and run off as slag was among the very earliest made. Ebelmen built the first one in 1840 at Audincourt, France, only a year after the installation of the first gas producer of which we have record. Charcoal was used as the fuel, with blast-furnace slag and clay is flux. My interest in this type of producer began when as a boy I saw the fluxing producer at Chester, N. J., which was invented by W. J.. Taylor, and described by him in 1881.1 This producer was invented independently by Mr. Taylor to meet the difficulties he experienced in making producer gas for roasting sulphurous iron ores. It will be of interest to review briefly his description of his producer. It was built like a small blast furnace, having a hearth 24 in. in diameter and 24 in. high. The bosh angle was 25° from the vertical; the diameter at the bosh 4 ft. and at the top 3 ft.; the total height 12 ft. The producer contained one water-cooled tuyere 12 in. above the bottom, with a 1.5-in. nozzle.. Depth of the coal above the tuyere; 6 ft. Mr. Taylor mixed the coal with from 30 to 40 per cent. of basic blast-furnace slag to flux the ash. Occasionally some limestone was also used, but never limestone alone, as the use of the furnace cinder gave a larger volume of slag and made it easier to maintain a proper fluidity. . The producer was blown with a small Weimer blowing engine, delivering 300 ft. of air per minute, at from 1 to 1.5 lb. pressure. The slag was tapped every 2 hr. and was black and glassy in appearance. Broken or egg size anthracite was used. The fine sizes of anthracite could not he made to work. Mr. Taylor expressed the belief that bituminous coal could be used if not too fine, but no experiments were made with this coal. Runs were made of four weeks' duration, with no stops or changes. Mr. Taylor reported the following advantages:

Jan 12, 1913

ALABAMA America.-Foreman, J. T. Ashland.-Sturdevant, J, C. Altalla; Henderson, R. M. Bessemer.-Ball, E. M. Maschmeyer, W. L. McKenzie, W. C., Jr. Birmingham.-Abbott, C, E. Aldrich, T. H. Aldrich, T. H., Jr. Aufderhaar, H. C. Berg, H. A. Blair, C. S. Bush, M. W. Clark. G. H.

Jan 1, 1929

By C. S. Barrett, A. Smigelskas

There have been no publications of the deformation and recrystallization orientations of the metal beryllium, yet pronounced textures would certainly be anticipated since it is close-packed hexagonal in structure. Having an axial ratio approximately that of magnesium, beryllium probably deforms by nearly the same slip and twinning mechanisms that operate in magnesium, and the textures are likely to be similar or but slightly different from the magnesium textures. In the tests reported below this is found to be the case; the textures are found to differ from those of magnesium only in the details of the scatter from the average orientation. This report covers not only samples rolled at room temperature, but some rolled at elevated temperatures. Since magnesium has been suspected by some investigators of altering its crystallo-graphic deformation mechanism at elevated temperatures, it was considered possible that beryllium might do so and alter its textures accordingly. No pronounced alterations were found, however. Unfortunately, the theory of deformation textures is not in a state of development that permits one to deduce the deformation mechanism from a knowledge of the textures, which means that the similarity of textures at different rolling temperatures, reported here, cannot be taken as definite evidence that the deformation mechanism is actually the same at all temperatures. The general similarity of the deformation textures of magnesium and beryllium also extend to the recrystallization textures of the two metals, judging by the pole figures for recrystallized sheet presented in this report. Samples were prepared in the form of composite sheets made up of small pieces stacked in a pile. Each piece was trimmed with scissors so that an edge was parallel to the rolling direction, dipped in paraffin, and assembled into the pack by aligning it under the cross hair of a microscope. As the desired orientation was obtained on each piece it was secured in place by touching with a hot wire to melt the paraffin. A stack of ten or fifteen pieces was built up in this way, then trimmed to the shape of a T; the portion to be X rayed was then etched to the shape of a wire about 0.045 in. diam with 6N HCl. This method of shaping the sample is a modification of that used by Bakarian on magnesium.' The absorption of the rays in the sample was so slight that it caused no difficulty in interpreting the films. Exposures were made with a 0.030 in. diam pinhole, using molybdenum radiation (40 kv, 25 ma, Type A film at 5 cm, 2 to 3 hr exposures). With the recrystallized specimens it was found necessary to oscillate the specimen so as to reduce the spottiness of the lines. A range of oscillation of 5" was SUB- cient to produce reasonably satisfactory patterns, though the quality was somewhat inferior to that of the deformation texture patterns, and only two degrees of intensity were read from the arcs on the films. Typical photo-grams for each of the deformation textures and the recrystallization texture are assembled in Fig 1. The pole figures were plotted in the usual way with the intensity of the various portions of the diffraction rings estimated by eye. Seven to nine films were made of each sample and each was carefully read in plotting the pole figures. Typical series included exposures with the beam normal to the rolling direction and at 11, 26, 41, 56 and 71" to the cross direction, plus two exposures with the beam normal to the cross direction, and at 11 and 79" respectively to the rolling direction. The rolling was in each case considered sufficient to develop the final texture: the reduction by cold rolling was 84 pct (from 0.0045 to 0.0007 in. thickness), following prior hot rolling in longitudinal and transverse directions and recrystallization; the reduction by hot rolling at 800°C was 90 pct (0.010 to 0.001 in.), following similar prior treatment; the reduction by rolling at 350°C was 88 pct (from 0.005 to 0.0006 in.) after similar prior treatment. The recrystallization texture was determined on a sample rolled at 350" to a reduction of 88 pct (0.0165 to 0.002 in.) after similar prior treatment, then mounted between steel strips to keep it flat and annealed at 700" in an atmosphere of argon. Discussion of Results The results of the X ray determinations are assembled in the pole figures of Fig 2, 3, 4 and 5 for rolling at

Jan 1, 1950

Executive DEGOLYER, Chairman SIDNEY H BALL RICHARD PETERS, JR WILLIAM H BASSETT J V W REYNDERS Finance GEORGE D BARRON, Chairman H A GUESS GEORGE OTIS SMITH Membership J M CALLOW, Chiarman FRANK L ESTEP WILBER JUDSON GEORGE D BARRON H N SPICER Alternates P A MOSMAN EDWARD B STURGIS

Jan 1, 1923

BUFFALO J R Atkinson, Chairman (Hamilton, Ont, Canada) C E Moyer, Vice-Chairman H A Morlock, Secretary CHICAGO H Erler, Chairman (Gary, Ind ) M E Nickel, Vice-Chairman A M Kroner, Secretary-Treasurer CLEVELAND C W Cravens, Chairman (Cleveland) E J Sobey, Vice-Chairman E Kondas, Secretary Leo Svete, Treasurer

Jan 1, 1958

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS CHESTER A. FULTON, Chairman CARROLL A. GARNER H. Y. WALKER WALLACE E. PRATT FELIX E: WORMSER PAUL D. MERICA, Consultant FINANCE COMMITTEE OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS ERIE V. DAVELER, Chairman WILBER JUDSON RUSSELL B. PAUL HENRY KRUMB, Consultant

Jan 1, 1944

By Alan Lawley

AS part of a programme of experimental work on single crystals of rhenium and ruthenium, it was found necessary to have the crystallographic angles for these elements. The angles given in Table I were determined to the nearest minute of arc, by Univac Computer. The angle $ between (HKIL) and (hkil) is given by the formula: The angles given for rhenium should be particularly useful in view of the increasing interest in this element. For completeness, angular values are also given for cadmium zinc and magnesium; these form a more complete set of values than those given by Salkovitz.' The assistance of Professor J. Hobstetter and Mr. J. Crozier in the programming of this data is acknowledged. The work is sponsored by the Office of Naval Research under contract No. NONR 551 (19).

Jan 1, 1961

By R. B. Toombs

The national and international importance of Canada's minerals and metals producing industry is reported. The growth of the Canadian industry is traced from 1945, through the period of rapid development of the early 1950's, to the consolidation and expansion activities of the late 1950's and early 1960's. Mineral production in Canada during 1963-including steel, nonferrous metals, and fuels -is reported. It is estimated that by 1970 the Canadian industry will produce $3.9 billion worth of metals, nonmetals, and fuels.

Jan 8, 1964

By George Rice

THE subject of violent bumps in coal mines has been again brought to attention by a recent succession of such occurrences in the coal mines of the Cumberland field of eastern Kentucky and southern Virginia, which have caused fatalities and injuries to underground employees, a report on which is being issued by the United States Bureau of Mines1. The A.I.M.E. has had two valuable papers on bumps in the No. 2 Mine, Springhill, Nova Scotia, each followed by general discussion on bumps and their causes2. This paper gives a brief review of suggested causes and remedial measures given in English, Canadian and United States reports on bumps in coal mines, and then presents suggestions arising from the writer's recent investigation of the bumps in the Cumberland mines, made at the request of the mine operators, to determine the causes and remedies. These bumps, which occur under the simplest natural conditions, provide better opportunity for analysis of causes and effects than afforded under more complex conditions. The simple conditions in this field consist of relatively thin and level coal beds and uniform roof strata free' from folding and faulting.

Jan 1, 1935

Jan 1, 1911

By H. D. Wilde

GREAT emphasis is being placed today on petroleum as a source of chemicals. Such prominence is well merited, for rapid strides have been made in developing processes for the conversion of petroleum into synthetic chemical products, which are now being made on a huge scale. These marvelous accomplishments have resulted in some highly optimistic predictions as to what can be expected in the future. Many of these forecasts are well justified, but some writers, especially those contributing to the Sunday supplements and the popular-cience type of publications, have let their imagination run wild and present a rather distorted picture of the possibilities in this field in the postwar period. Commercial manufacture of synthetic organic chemicals had its beginning in England with the establishment of a plant by Sir William Perkin in 1857 for the manufacture of "Aniline Purple" or "Mauve." The preceding year he had discovered in the laboratory how this dyestuff could be made from aniline, one of the many derivatives of coal tar, and he soon made commercial application of his discovery. Influenced largely by his success, organic chemists began research on production of a vast array of synthetic dyestuffs, medicinals, flavors, scents, and explosives. Rapid progress was made and by the turn of the century hundreds of these products were being manufactured. Most of these synthetic chemicals were derived from materials obtained as by-products in the conversion of coal into coke. These by-products are generally referred to as "aromatics" and are obtained by processing coal tar recovered in the coking process, so they are popularly known as "coal-tar chemicals." During the early years of this century, coal-tar chemistry was the wonder of the age, and rightfully so, since the products so made seemed limitless.

Jan 1, 1944

By William P. McConnell

At the dawning of the first century of AIME, mechanical handling of bulk materials was largely confined to movement of grain and light mill products by belt and screw conveyors, but grain handling experience inevitably led to the use of the belt conveyor for coal, ore and other heavier materials. In 1891, the first major U.S. conveyor installation for heavy minerals was completed at the Edison, N.J., plant of the New Jersey & Pennsylvania Concentrating Co. Functionally, this plant revealed its grain elevator heritage. Overlooked at the time of design or, perhaps more accurately, not fully recognized, were the dramatic differences between grain and minerals in both operating conditions of the system and the physical characteristics of the material to be conveyed. This inevitably caused problems, but from the ashes of these problems rose solutions. The Edison plant became a proving ground from which came two significant developments by Thomas Robins-the first conveyor belt designed specifically for impact loading and abrasive materials and the three-roll conveyor idler. As an installation with more than 50 conveyors in widths of 20-30 in. and belt centers of up to 500 ft, the plant was a landmark, for it established the belt conveyor as a vital method of trans- porting heavy, abrasive materials.

Jan 1, 1971

By A. B. Kinzel

ALTHOUGH vanadium is an important constituent of almost every brand of high-speed steel manufactured today, little is known as to its role in this series of alloys. The now standard 18 per cent tungsten and 4 per cent chromium constituents were the result of developments and improvements before 1903. In that year, vanadium was added to the steel by Dr. J. A. Mathews. This proved to be an outstanding con-tribution, so that the standard high-speed steel of today is generally referred to as the 18-4-1 type-18 per cent W, 4 per cent Cr and 1 per cent V. Various modifications have been attempted, since then, but with the exception of the introduction of cobalt, no striking improvements have occurred. Vanadium has been increased to 2 per cent in many of the common brands, and at least one brand contains 5 per cent V in addition to the usual tungsten and chromium. The carbon has been gradually increased so that it is not uncommon to find 0.80 per cent in the standard grade, although the carbon in the 5 per cent vanadium steel mentioned above is approximately 1 per cent, and even 1.2 per cent has been made experimentally. The role of vanadium has never been well understood, and although vanadium has been increased to 2.5 and even 5 per cent in certain high speed steels, it has not been generally established that the higher vanadium contents 'result in superior cutting properties. However, in all of the investigations, of which the writers are aware, the interrelation of the vanadium and carbon contents was not considered as a prime factor. The carbon content was held at 1.2 per cent or less-generally at the usual 0.65 to 0.75 per cent.

Jan 1, 1932

By T. S. Fuller

The work of D. J. McAdam, Jr.1,2 at the U. S. Naval Engineering Experiment Station, Annapolis, Md., on what has been called by him "corrosion-fatigue" has focussed the attention of the engineering profession in general, and of those interested especially in the study of corrosion in particular, on the importance of making tests which will indicate as nearly as possible what can be expected from a given material in service. Pitting is unquestionably the chief agent operating so tremendously to reduce fatigue limits, but in the light of previous work3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 it is fair to assume that absorbed hydrogen resulting from the action of the corroding medium upon steel may, under certain conditions, have a perceptible influence. The experiments described in this paper deal more precisely with stressless corrosion, or "prior-corrosion fatigue,"9 and have been carried out to test such an assumption, to segregate, if possible, the effect of pitting from that of absorbed hydrogen, and although very preliminary in nature they indicate results which are striking.

Jan 1, 1929

By T. S. Fuller

The work of D. J. McAdam, Jr.1,2 at the U. S. Naval Engineering Experiment Station, Annapolis, Md., on what has been called by him "corrosion-fatigue" has focussed the attention of the engineering profession in general, and of those interested especially in the study of corrosion in particular, on the importance of making tests which will indicate as nearly as possible what can be expected from a given material in service. Pitting is unquestionably the chief agent operating so tremendously to reduce fatigue limits, but in the light of previous work3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 it is fair to assume that absorbed hydrogen resulting from the action of the corroding medium upon steel may, under certain conditions, have a perceptible influence. The experiments described in this paper deal more precisely with stressless corrosion, or "prior-corrosion fatigue,"9 and have been carried out to test such an assumption, to segregate, if possible, the effect of pitting from that of absorbed hydrogen, and although very preliminary in nature they indicate results which are striking.

Jan 1, 1929

By Alfred Weiss

Daniel C. Jackling's innovative concept for handling low grade ores ushered in a new philosophy of open pit mining. As one of the greatest minemakers of all times he revolutionized major segments of the industry and helped strengthen US defense efforts during World Wars I and II by making possible the tremendous copper supplies from US mines. Many great mining men have since followed in his footsteps with their discoveries of new orebodies or development of new mines. Their brilliance in leadership can also be traced to the coupling of a new idea to the physical nature of the materials in the earth's crust or to the extractive stages of minerals recovery. The minerals industry is now in another era of change and must again devise techniques to meet the challenge. The task is not only to create new exploration techniques and develop new mining methods, but, I believe, to optimally apply new concepts and tools in daily decision-making.

Jan 11, 1978

Jan 1, 1944

Discussion of the paper of G. K. Burgess and J. J. Crowe, presented at the New York Meeting, October, 1913, and printed in Bulletin No. 82, October, 1913, pp. 2537 to 2591. HENRY M. Howe, New York, N. Y. :-I think we can hardly rate the importance of the entry of the Bureau of Standards into our field. There is no body in the world that is better fitted to undertake this work than that Bureau, and it is work which really calls for the aid of some national organization. The skill and care with which this work has been done speaks for itself. It is very striking that within a very few months the distinguished English investigator, Professor Carpenter, of whom I spoke before, thought that he had disproved the existence of beta iron by proving that the A2 retardation which Professor Burgess has now demonstrated did not occur. Dr. Burgess's demonstration of the existence of. this retardation makes the existence of beta iron very probable, in my opinion. Osmond used to call beta iron " decipuum." You knew of its existence as you know of the existence of certain planets, only by the perturbation which it caused. Certain phenomena could not be explained, except by assuming the existence of a third allotropic form, beta iron. The evidence that you got was always evasive and susceptible of other explanations, except that which we have to-day, which it seems to me is not capable of other explanation. Professor Carpenter proceeded in the same way that Dr. Burgess has, by taking the heating and cooling curves of exceedingly pure iron, and thought that he had shown that there was no thermal change, no absorption or evolution of heat at the supposed A2 point, and hence that the A2 point did not exist. This he did by a piece of reasoning which I think seems to most of us rather surprising. That is to say, if of ten witnesses, three have seen a thing and seven have not, the evidence of the seven who have not is set aside, and that of the three who have seen stands. In Dr. Carpenter's own experiments under certain conditions he found the A2 change, the heat evolution., under certain others he did not. That is like the three witnesses who saw and the seven who did not see. You can arrange your test so that this change will not become visible or so that it is masked. But though an existent change can be masked a non-existent one cannot be shown. So that the reasoning seemed to me wholly fallacious.

Jan 12, 1913