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INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY The mathematical theory of probability provides the foundation for the interpretations and inferences that can be made from statistical techniques. Probability theory is a broad field of study in itself, and can only be touched on here in order to provide the necessary back- ground for a more complete understanding of statistical analysis. Probability is concerned with the outcome of random events. It had its beginnings in the theory of games of chance which were of great interest to European mathematicians during the last half of the 17th century. The outcome of a random process or experiment is defined as an event. The collection of all mathematical points associated with each event is called the sample space for an experiment. Consider a random experiment having a finite number, n, of possible outcomes, some of which have a characteristic A. What is the probability that A will result from a single

Jan 1, 1980

COLUMBIA SECTION S. S. FOWLER, Chairman., J. C. HAAS, Vice-chairman, LYNDON K. ARMSTRONG, Secretary-Treasurer, 720 Peyton Bldg., Spokane, Wash. W. H. LINNEY. J. F. MCCARTHY. On July 15, 16, and 17, 1918, through the good offices of Secretary Stoughton, and the courtesy of War Department officials, Columbia Section was able to secure a series of moving pictures which were presented under the auspices of the Spokane Engineering and Technical Association.. The title was "The Way Out," representing the activities of individuals who had lost an arm, a leg, or both, yet whose apparent misfortunes were made the stepping stones to advancement in various human activities. The exhibitions were given at Natatorium Park in the evening, each of the three performances being attended by 1000 per-sons. Later the films were shipped to Kellogg, Idaho, where they were shown in the principal playhouse one evening to a full house. On July 31, 1918, the Columbia Section participated in the luncheon and other entertainment in honor of Alfred D. Flinn, Secretary of the Engineering Council, who made a trip through the country to meet different classes of engineers, members of the National Societies, for whom he had a message. The entertainment was under the auspices of the Spokane Engineering and Technical Association, Mr. Peter Mogensen presiding. The luncheon was held in the Elizabethan Room, Davenport Hotel, at noon, 35 engineers being present, of whom about one-third were our members.

Jan 9, 1918

By F. S. Peabody

ANYTHING that may be said about "too much coal" must seem rather incongruous just at this time when two-thirds of the mines in the United States have been idle for nearly four months and a temporary coal shortage looms as more and more of a possibility. It is the purpose of this article, however, to deal primarily with the fundamental ills of the bituminous-coal industry, which, when summed up, can be expressed in one word-overdevelopment. During recent years the bituminous-coal industry in the United States has been seldom, almost never, in a state of normal business health with production run-ning evenly, prices steady and the market absorbing the output from week to week. There has been either a condition of feverish activity or apathetic sluggish-ness. We have had, for example, the intense strain on production during the war years with heatless days and lightless nights, followed by the slump late in 1918 which lasted through the greater part of 1919 when coal was a drug on the market. Then came the panicky demand of 1920. Competitive buying forced prices up to the highest levels in history. This demand in turn fell off suddenly in November, 1920, and the market remained apparently paralyzed all through 1921. During the latter year, lack of buying forced intermit-tent suspension of mining in all fields and prices averaged less than actual cost of production.

Jan 8, 1922

BOSTON SECTION R. L. AGASSIZ, Chairman, - JAMES G. CARLETON, Vice-Chairman, E. E. BUGBEE, Sec.-Treas., Mass. Inst. of Technology, Cambridge, Mass. W. E. C. EUSTIS, G. A. PACKARD. The forty-fifth meeting of the Boston Section was held, at the Engineers' Club, on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 1917. Mr. F. C. Carstarphen, tramway engineer of the American Steel and Wire Co., was the guest of the evening. After dinner, Mr. Carstarphen gave a most interesting illustrated talk on the subject of aerial tramways. The views-showed the various forms of aerial tramways and three' unique installations, one carrying 285 tons of coal an hour, undoubtedly the maximum quantity transported by any tramway up to this time. The second installation is that of a lumber-carrying tramway, 5 miles long, operating in California. The last views illustrated a 13 ½ -mile tramway for carrying salt over the

Jan 2, 1918

By J. H. Nead, T. S. Washburn

The grades of commercial steel produced in large quantities can be divided into two general types from the standpoint of ingot structure— killed and rimmed. Killed steel covers a wide variety with carbon contents throughout the range of the steel portion of the iron-carbon diagram, and is the kind usually used in the production of alloy steels. Rimmed steel is normally associated with carbon ranges under 0.30 per cent, and is not yet used to a large extent in alloy practice, except for copper-bearing steels. The fundamental differences in the ingots made from these two types of steel can be seen most easily in Figs. 1 to 7. In the rimmed ingot shown in Figs. 5 to 7 there are two lines of blowholes approximately parallel to the sides and coming together at the top and at the bottom of the ingot. In the killed ingots shown in Figs. 1 to 4 these blowholes arc not present. Also, the rimmed ingot has no well defined pipe, as compared to the deep pipe on the killed ingots, and there are numerous primary blowholes in the lower portion of the rimmed ingot perpendicular to the surface and close to it, while on the killed ingot there are no blowholes of this type in the ingot shown in Fig. 1 and very small ones close to the surface in the lower part of the ingot shown in Figs. 2 to 4. With respect to the presence of pipe and the primary blowholes, the structure may vary considerably in both rimmed and killed ingots, therefore these cannot be considered as fundamental structural characteristics differentiating the two types of steel. The primary blowholes in rimmed ingots may be much less pronounced than those in the ingot shown in Figs. 5 to 7—as, for example, in "ingot iron," which is entirely free from them. An example of a cross section of an ingot-iron ingot is shown on page 16 of "Research and Methods of Analysis of Iron and Steel," published by the American Rolling Mill Co. (1920). A certain amount of pipe may also occur in rimmed ingots, though it is normally porous and not as well defined [or deep as in the killed ingot of Fig. 1. In killed ingots, primary blowholes may occur near the surface, as in Figs. 2 to 4, and

Jan 1, 1937

PENNSYLVANIA ANTHRACITE SECTION Executive Committee R. V. NORRIS, Chairman. CHARLES F. HUBER, Vice-Chairman, W. J. RICHARDS, Vice-Chairman, EDWIN LUDLOW, Vice-Chairman, ARTHUR H. STORRS, Vice-Chairman. CHARLES ENZIAN, Secretary-Treasurer, U. S. Bureau of Mines, Wilkes-Barre, Pa. DOUGLAS BUNTING, FRANK A. HILL, ALBERT B. JESSUP, RUFUS J. FOSTER, JOHN M. HUMPHREY, ROBERT A. QUIN. The Pennsylvania Anthracite Section held its second regular meeting at the Pottsville Club House, Pottsville, Pa., July 25,1914. The meeting was attended by more than 90 members and guests. Vice-Chairman W. J. Richards presided. Following an informal dinner, W. G. Whildin, Mining Superintendent, Lehigh Coal & Navigation Co., Lansford, Pa., presented a. paper on Steep Pitch Mining of Thick Coal Seams, illustrated by numerous drawings. This paper will be printed in the November number of the Bulletin. A lively discussion followed the reading of the paper.

Jan 10, 1914

The new saw mill at Cache Bay of the Geo. Gordon & Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of International Nickel Co., of Canada, is equipped with the first fully electric saw carriage drives in Ontario. It has a capacity of 120,000 ft of lumber in an 8-hr shift. About half of the mill's production is high grade white pine lumber which is shipped to the general market. The other half, red pine is used in the mining operations of International Nickel in the Sudbury district, 55 miles west of Cache Bay. [ ] Inco with a potential need of 77 million board ft a year, gets only part of its supply from the new mill. The milling firm became an Inco subsidiary Jan. 1, 1948.

Jan 1, 1952

NEW YORK LOCAL SECTION Executive Committee LEWIS W. FRANCIS, Chairman WILLARD S. MORSE, Vice-Chairman. THOMAS T. READ, Secretary, Woolworth Bldg., New York, N. Y. PHILIP A. MOSMAN, Treasurer Louis D. HUNTOON WILLIAM A. POMEROY The October meeting of the New York Local Section was held on Oct. 2 at 1424 Broadway, following a beefsteak supper, at which 71 members were present. B. B. Thayer spoke briefly on present labor conditions at Butte, A. A. Blow discussed labor conditions in New Zealand, and Hennen Jennings discussed the fundamental problems of industrial unrest. Several other members joined in the informal discussion which followed. The next meeting will be held on Nov. 7. THOMAS T. READ, Secretary.

Jan 11, 1914

By W. W. Anderson

A formula for quantitative efficiency is proposed, in which the efficiency value is a function of the improperly distributed material at the, gravity of separation effected by the cleaning equipment. The misplaced material is expressed as a percentage of the total material discharged from the equipment. Numerous examples are given, demonstrating application of the formula to various types of separation, including multiple-product separations.

Jan 1, 1950

SAN FRANCISCO LOCAL SECTION Executive Committee G. HOWELL CLEVENGER, Chairman C. W. MERRILL, Pace-Chairman JAMES C. RAY, Secretary-Treasurer, 1235 Webster St., Palo Alto, Cal. F. W. BRADLEY ANDREW C. LAWSON Meets on the second Tuesday of each month Farewell Dinner to H. Foster Bain H. Foster Bain, Who has gone to London to assume the editorship of the Mining Magazine, was tendered a farewell dinner by the San Francisco Sections of the American Institute of Mining Engineers, the Mining and Metallurgical Society of America, and the Engineers' Club, on the evening of Mar. 9, 1915, at the Hotel Bellevue, San Francisco, 85 members being present. George H. Clevenger acted as Toastmaster and the following toasts were responded to: Bain and the Mining Industry, E. H. Benjamin. Bain, the Geologist, A. C. Lawson. Bain, the Man, F. W. Bradley. Bain, the Friend, C. W. Merrill. Bain, the Schoolboy, C.. F. Tolman. The Frontispiece and Flow sheet from the souvenir program, designed by James C. Ray, Secretary of the Section, are reproduced herewith.

Jan 5, 1915

By B. G. Klugh

(New York Meeting, February, 1912). IN a paper before the Institute at Wilkes-Barre, Pa., June 1911,1 Mr. James Gayley discussed the application of this process to iron-bearing materials. The same author2 described the results of operations at the plant at Birdsboro, Pa. The purpose of the present paper is to present further discussion of some technical details involved in the operation of this plant, and of the theoretical and practical relations of this product to blast-furnace practice. Since Oct. 1, 1911, the Birdsboro plant has been in operation at the blast-furnace of the E. & G. Brooke Iron Co. The results have been highly satisfactory, although the material treated, being chiefly the flue-dust currently made by the furnace or taken from the accumulated stock-pile, was excessively high, and yet not uniform, in carbon, so that the desirable control or regularity of the amount of fuel in the mixture treated could not be maintained. Nothing could more forcibly demonstrate the flexibility of the process than the fact that, under these conditions, the sinter produced was, in all cases, of excellent quality. The Dwight & Lloyd process, as such, and its present highly-developed mechanical appliances were described by Mr. Gayley in the paper above mentioned. While the repetition of some particulars will be unavoidable in this paper, it will be confined to features bearing upon the metallurgical principles involved. According to the principle of the process, the finely-divided iron-bearing material to be sintered is intimately mixed with

May 1, 1912

PUGET SOUND SECTION SIMON H. ASH, Chairman, I. F. LAUCKS, Vice Chairman, CHARLES SIMENSTAD, Sec.-Treas., 425 Lyon Building, Seattle, Wash. GLENVILLE A. COLLINS, JOHN N. POTT. The Puget Sound Section met at the Arctic Club, Seattle, Wash., on Jan. 20, 1917. Sixteen members and five guests were present. Dinner having been served, the meeting was called to order. A letter from secretary of Associated Engineering Societies was read, requesting payment of this section's assessment to the quarterly budget, and upon motion it was voted that the Secretary-Treasurer be instructed to pay this assessment. It was moved and carried that this section join with the Chemical Society in a meeting. At the, close of the business meeting, Mr. Asa C. Baldwin gave an illustrated lecture on the "Alaska Boundary Survey." On Feb. 24, the Puget Sound Section again held a meeting at the Arctic Club, 16 members and three guests being present. Chester F. Lee, as member of a committee representing this section in the joint council of the Associated Engineering Societies, reported that by lots it had been decided that the term of service of said committee would be as follows: Chester F. Lee, two years; George. Watkin Evans, one year. Following adjournment of the business meeting, Prof. Joseph Daniels, of the University of Washington, delivered a very interesting lecture on "Milling Practice of The Alaska-Castineau Mining Company." CHAS. SIMENSTAD, Secretary.

Jan 5, 1917

Denver, the Mile High, Queen City of the Plains, your host for AIME's 99th Annual Meeting has many exciting and picturesque places for you to visit during your stay. A host of restaurants cater to every taste; supper clubs and theaters provide nighttime entertainment; there are sports facilities and a plethora of shops for the ladies. When it comes to dining out, there are many excellent restaurants within walking distance of the Denver Hilton --among them, three in Brooks Towers: the Gitana, the Boston Half Shell serving the finest seafood, and Marvelous Mary's. In the Larimer Square area there in the Bratskellar with a true Germanic atmosphere and Sperte's Laffite offering a typical New Orleans setting.

Jan 1, 1970

NEW YORK SECTION J. E. JOHNSON, JR., Chairman EDGAR RICKARD, Vice Chairman D. M. LIDDELL, Secretary, 7 Wall St., New York, N. Y. C. A. BOHN, Treasurer JOHN V. N. DORR LEWIS W.. FRANCIS The following minute was unanimously passed at a meeting of the NEW YORK SECTION AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF MINING ENGINEERS held on the evening of June 6, 1917, two regular meetings having been adjourned by unanimous consent until this date out of respect to the memory of the late Chairman of the Section. Minute The death of our beloved fellow member DR. DAVID H. BROWNE one of the foremost metallurgists and one of the most brilliant and original thinkers in the profession of mining engineers, the chairman for the past two years of this section, has caused throughout a wide circle of

Jan 9, 1917

The eastern part of the state of Rhode Island on both sides of Narragansett Bay, including the island of Rhode Island, is underlaid with carboniferous rocks which carry veins of anthracite. This formation extends into the neighboring portion of Massachusetts, including the area from the state line, the towns of Mansfield, Brockton and Bridgewater,: and extending probably ten miles east of the latter two towns, to Middlesboro, and to Fall River. In Massachusetts the coal formation extends over nearly the whole of Bristol, and parts of Plymouth and Norfolk Counties. In Rhode Island and Massachusetts the area covered is about 400 square miles. In both states the exact limits of the coal measures cannot be determined on account of a thick layer of drift which overlays it. Along parts of Narragansett Bay, the coal measures outcrop in the cliffs on the west side of Rhode Island, and the presence of coal here seems to have been noted as early as 1760, and in 1768 a patent was granted to parties who "were about to dig after pit, coal or sea coal" at the back of the town of Providence. In 1807-08 Benjamin Silliman, later a geologist, visited some openings,' and in 1808 a mine was opened near Portsmouth, in the northeast part of Rhode Island. Work was done here until about 1814 when the mine was abandoned. No anthracite had been used in New England at that time, all coal used came from Nova Scotia, Virginia or England, and was high volatile bituminous; neither experience nor the means of firing favored the use of the local fuel? This mine was again working in 1827, was again abandoned and operations were resumed in 1847. In 1837 a note in a magazine mentions, "the immense coal mine in Cumberland-about six miles from the city of Providence" as having a shaft 14 ft. in diameter and 80 ft. deep, that the horses then used for hoisting the coal were to be superseded by a steam engine and another shaft was to be sunk. With these improvements 30,000 to 50,000 tons were to be produced the following year at a cost of $1 per ton and a sales realization of $6.1 Hitchcock's report refers to a number of localities in both states where definite knowledge of coal existed. These are:

Jan 1, 1942

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCAL SECTION Executive Committee SEELEY W. MUDD, Chairman C. COLCOCK JUNES, Vice-Chairman FREDERICK J. H. MERRILL, Secretary-Treasurer, 631. Higgins Bldg., Los Angeles, Cal. Ralph ARNOLD A. B. CARPENTER The Second Annual Meeting of the Southern California Local Section of the American Institute of Mining Engineers was held at 300 Germain Bldg. on June 18, 1915, at 8 P.M. Present were: Messrs. C. Colcock Jones, Carpenter; Merrill, Baumgarten, Staunton, Hodges, Holland, and Durell. In the absence of the Chairman; Mr. Jones presided. The tellers appointed to canvass the vote for Section officers reported 45 ballots cast. The following gentlemen were announced as duly elected to the several. . offices: Chairman, SEELEY W. MUDD, Vice-Chairman, C. COLCOCK JONES, Secretary-Treasurer, F. J. H. MERRILL, Members of Executive Committee, RALPH ARNOLD A. B. CARPENTER

Jan 8, 1915

Plans have been completed with only details to be arranged for the first Metals Branch Conference in the Northwest. The two day meeting will be held jointly with the Industrial Minerals Div. on Friday and Saturday, May 9 and 10, 1952, at the Davenport Hotel in Spokane, Wash. For, some time the metals activities in this area have been neglected. Expansion of metal producing and fabricating industries in Washington and neighboring states has brought sufficient interest to insure the success of such a meeting. A committee has been hard at work for several months. Nonferrous extractive metallurgy men will find an extensive program in the April issue of JOURNAL OF METALS. Sessions for iron and steel producers, physical metallurgists, and educators will make the Metals Branch picture complete. Metals Branch members residing in Washington, British Columbia, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, and Utah, or who can be in the Northwest at this time should make plans now to attend. A Metals Branch luncheon is planned for Friday and a dinner jointly with the Industrial Minerals Div. is planned for Saturday according to F. R. Morral, metallurgist with the metallurgical research div. of Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corp., P. O. Box 1451, Spokane, Wash.

Jan 1, 1952

SAN FRANCISCO SECTION W. H. SHOCKLEY, Chairman, PRANK H. PROBERT, Vice-Chairman, T. A. RICHARD, Sec.-Treas., 420 Market St., San Francisco, Cal. C. C. BRAYTON, J. F. NEWSOM. The San Francisco Section met on September 11 to discuss the problem of Labor in its Relation to the Mining Engineer. Mr. W. H. Shockley was in the chair. T. A. Rickard opened the discussion under four heads: The recognition of the union, the rustling-card, the sliding scale of wages, and the' contract system. He expressed his belief that collective bargaining cannot be ignored, and insisted that the mining company represented a collective bargaining of its shareholders with the men. employed in its mine. He held that the contract system was often used unfairly, but that used fairly it was the best check on labor tyranny. The rustling-card he held to be right in principle, in so far as it gave the employer the choice of employees, but he believed that it was often used in an irritating way to black-list refractory laborers. The sliding scale of wages was easy to establish in prosperous times, but it would inevitably lead to trouble when conditions went against the miner. His conclusion was that the quarrels of labor and capital were due mainly to a lack of the sense of fair play and of social justice. Albert Burch agreed with most of the foregoing, and insisted that 90 per cent. of the men were inclined to be just, but that the 10 per cent: made all the trouble. He stated that he had introduced the rustling-card in the Coeur d'Alene in 1899, as a means for getting rid of agitators. E. L. Foucar considered that labor was irresponsible. He described his experience in Peru, where the authorities promptly stopped a strike of Italian miners by threatening prompt punishment for any display of violence. Morton Webber also gave a bit of his own experience, to show that the chief trouble is that the men do not think for themselves, and are therefore easily led by fomenters of trouble. F. H. Probert described his experiences in Germany and. also in Arizona, and insisted that too often the men were not given a fair hearing. E. T. Blake argued that a manager must get the workmen's point of view, in order to control them effectively. He believed that young men who started life doing manual labor were in a better position to understand their fellow workers. George J. Young suggested that the mine owners should encourage the good men to lead the unions, and not leave the direction of the unions to the noisy element.

Jan 12, 1917

ST. LOUIS SECTION H. A. BUEHLER, Chairman, CHARLES T. ORR, Vice-Chairman., THOMAS T. BREWSTER, Vice-Chairman, L. L. HUTCHISON, Vice-Chairman, W. E. McCOURT, Secretary-Treasurer, Washington University, St. Louis. CHARLES J. ADAMI, EUGENE MCAULIFFE, A. C. TERRILL, JAMES A. CASELTON, JAMES D. ROBERTSON. The annual meeting of the St. Louis Section was held at the St. Louis Club, Saturday evening, Mar. 10, 1917. Philip N. Moore, President, and Bradley Stoughton, Secretary of the Institute, were the guests of the Section. The meeting was preceded by a dinner, at which 70 were present, and was presided over by F. W. DeWolf. Addresses were made by Mr. Moore and Mr. Stoughton. The routine reports of the officers were- presented and the Executive Committee named above was elected for the current year. The special business of the meeting was a report of progress concerning the arrangements for the Institute meeting to be held in the St. Louis Section district, Oct. 8 to 13, 1917. The general program for the meeting met with the cordial approval and cooperation of the members of the Section. It was evident that the members are united in an endeavor to arrange a successful meeting. W. E. McCOURT, Secretary.

Jan 4, 1917

[ ] For President-Elect Leo F. Reinartz has been nominated for the Presidency of AIME in 1954. Mr. Reinartz is now vice-president, special operating development, Armco Steel Corp. He was born in East Liverpool, Ohio, and graduated from the Carnegie Institute of Technology as metallurgical engineer. He joined Armco in 1909 as a chemist and then became open hearth foreman; assistant superintendent, open hearth dept.; superintendent, open hearth dept.; assistant general superintendent; works manager, East works; manager, Middletown div.; and assistant vice-president, successively. Mr. Reinartz has been active in many technical societies and delivered papers before several. He has been the recipient of the Alumni Award from Carnegie and holds life honorary membership in the AIME National Open Hearth Conference. One of the organizers of the National Open Hearth Conference, Mr. Reinartz was Chairman, Executive Committee (1927 to 1946) and is presently Chairman of its Finance Committee. In October 1951 he was an American Conferee at the First World Metallurgical Congress held in Detroit. An AIME member since 1925, Mr. Reinartz has been active on numerous committees of the Institute.

Jan 1, 1952