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By M Grigorescu, J H. Hodgkinson

The expansive, open cut iron-ore mines in Western Australia typically experience few days of rain per annum, often amounting to less than 250 mm. Unlike mines where rainfall is frequent, they may be less prepared for extreme rainfall events. Such events can cause erosion, flooding and sedimentation, drainage alteration, spoil and stock heaps wetting and effect slope stability. Such impacts may threaten personnel safety, infrastructure, and production. The CRATER (‘Climate Related Adaptation from Terrain Evaluation Results’) framework collates and interprets a mine’s pre-existing data and semi-quantitative information to assess vulnerability to, and ultimately plan to avoid or minimise, flood-related hazard to infrastructure, people, downtime, environment and revenue. Outputs assist decision makers to design investment strategies for minimising mining operations’ vulnerability to climate. Previously developed for smaller, wetter mines in Queensland’s coal region, the outputs provide a hot-spot map, fault tree analysis and an assessment of the mine’s capacity to adapt. The multicriteria evaluation (MCE) within a geographic information system (GIS), equally suits iron-ore mines’ siteconditions (elevation, slope, drainage, soil and vegetation) to identify critical inundation areas. Hotspot results provide target zones for in-depth fault-tree analysis that, in turn, present a range of sitespecific adaptation options. Rainfall-intensity and the number of rain days since the 1970s have increased over central and eastern parts of the Pilbara Region. While tropical cyclones may become less frequent, they are projected to increase in intensity. Although some parts of the Hamersley Ranges receive more than 500 mm per annum, rainfall in the Pilbara is generally very low. Therefore, experience of the impacts of extreme rainfall events in the constantly changing topography of Western Australia’s iron ore region may be sparse. Minimising potential effects can be proactively assisted using CRATER.

Nov 8, 2021

By A J. Cornah

"The mine geologist’s role in classifying ore from waste during grade control represents a critical link in the mining value chain. Any improvement in the ore/waste selection success rate (thus reduction in misclassification) which can be delivered by the mine geologist represents a value proposition. Improvement achieved without additional operating cost (for example extra drilling and sampling) will directly and immediately add value to the mining operation and therefore clearly must be pursued. Such improvement may be leveraged from existing resource drilling data which are typically less numerous but better quality than the grade control data. They are usually excluded from grade control estimates (termed the ‘base case’ approach here) because of the differences in quality.Various specialised geostatistical tools are available to account for differences in precision and accuracy between data sources during spatial estimation. This paper uses a conditional simulation (CS) case study to assess the benefit of integrating resource data into grade control estimates through ordinary kriging (OK) of pooled data sets, cokriging (CK), and ordinary kriging with variance of measurement error (OKVME) when the grade control data are:unbiased but increasingly imprecisebiased and increasingly imprecise. The premise assumed is that the resource data are unbiased and precise.The paper demonstrates that, if appropriately handled, resource data may be used to improve grade control estimates and thus improve ore/waste selection success without additional operating cost. Where grade control data are imprecise but unbiased it is recommended to integrate resource data using OKVME. This re-appropriates kriging weights from less precise to more precise data locations and improves the grade control estimation precision compared to the base case; it consequently provides an improvement in the grade control selection success rate. If grade control data are associated with significant bias, integration through CK is recommended as the biased data are zero sum weighted. CK consequently provides an unbiased estimate with some improvement in estimation precision compared to the base case and consequently improvement in the ore/waste selection success rate.CITATION:Cornah, A J, 2014. Incremental improvement of grade control models using resource data, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 387–396 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Aug 18, 2014

By S Nie, I Bergqvist, F Ouchterlony

In blasting, a few or many cracks are driven from the borehole into the rock. But what causes the cracks? The most common theory of breakage consists of two stages; first the shock wave causes radial cracks to form around the hole then the gases penetrate into the cracks, and widen them and make them longer. Another theory presented by Brinkmann suggests that the back damage is primarily controlled by shock and that the gas penetration is the mechanism controlling breakout of the burden. He did his experimental work using blasthole liners. Recent research at SveBeFo has examined this matter further. In a quarry a number of benching holes have been blasted simultaneously. In some of these holes tubular Swellex bolts were inflated and decoupled charges put inside the tubes without stemming. Other holes were identically charged but without the lining. Finally some holes were also stemmed. After blasting the cracks in the remaining rock were studied. There was no difference in crack lengths between holes charged normally (no stemming) and holes where the charges were inside the bolts. On the other hand when stemming was used, the crack lengths increased for some explosives but remained the same for an emulsion explosive. In another set up blasted granite blocks were charged in the same way as above. Then we could also measure the bore hole pressure. The pressure gauge consists of a small carbon resistor inside a steel cylinder. It is called LHM (Location-fixed Hydrodynamic Measuring Cup) and is placed at the bottom of the hole. A smaller exit hole from the bottom is drilled for the cables. The paper presents the technique and the results obtained from both the quarry blasting and the blasting of the blocks.

Jan 1, 2001

By Iley J. D, Siviour N. g, Moffatt R. J

The process of desilverising by fractional crystallisation with reflux was investigated through laboratory batch tests and continuous laboratory bench scale tests at CSIRO Clayton, to a 300 kg/hr pilot plant at Port Pine. The pilot plant built at BHAS comprised a vertical cylindrical refining column with internal diameter 250 mm and height 3.2 m, attached at the top to an off-set cylindrical stirred crystalliser tank. Crystals were made in the crystalliser by intermittent immersion of steel cold fingers, which were water cooled between immersions. Gas heat was used for melting the crystals at the base of the column and for side compensation heating. A computerised in strumentation system was employed for data logging and for controlling some critical plant operations. A mechanical device was first employed to promote counter-current plug flow of crystals down the column against the rising stream of reflux liquid, but this was found to be unsatisfactory owing to excess noise, frequent mechanical failure, and excessive accumulation of dross. Plug flow was finally promoted by pulsing the column. Low silver levels, less than 1 gitonne, were achieved with both methods of crystal transport under total reflux conditions. The pulsed column gave results for silver and bismuth which agreed with the theoretical predictions of a computer model, but there was some selective drossing of antimony. In the mechanically agitated column, excessive drossing promoted selective removal of most of the antimony and some of the bismuth, and the results after extended operation were well removed from the theoretical predictions. Plant failures and operating problems prevented the achievement of satisfactory product quality with the necessary reliability under production conditions. Other priorities necessitated the termination of the project before the process could be optimised.

Jan 1, 1989

By J Barnes

During September 2000, Nabalco management identified the need for a corporate system to deliver its key performance indicators (KPIs). In June 2001, a need was also identified to replace the existing metallurgical accounting system. After a review of the technologies available, the decision was made to develop the systems in-house, in preference to purchasing commercial software packages. This would allow much greater control over the structure, and provide for an iterative, concurrent development process between software and key business developers. This has proven invaluable in the development process. The purpose of the KPI system is to provide a unified reporting tool for all performance indicators. These indicators include production, safety, health and environment, personnel, costs, continuous improvement initiatives and opportunity losses. All of these disparate measurements are brought together into the KPI system and used to determine the performance for each department or area. The general principles of the balanced scorecard business approach (Kaplan and Norton, 1996) are applied to achieve a performance measurement for each area within Nabalco. The new metallurgical accounting system (MA) is a SQLServer database with web page and Excel interfaces. The database is structured around daily inputs of all measurements and calculations. The data is stored and adjustments and reconciliations can be made to this data as required. The focus is on accounting rigour, with all adjustments recorded in the database to allow for full auditing. The structure of the data focuses on the five input/output streams (bauxite in, caustic soda in, fuel oil in, residue out, and alumina out). In-circuit inventory provides a secondary measurement on which to check and calibrate the MA system. The KPI and MA systems were developed using Web technologies and are available to any internet-enabled device with Internet Explorer installed. This removes the need for software rollouts and user training. This will promote the wide use of the systems throughout Nabalco and Alcan.

Jan 1, 2002

The following thesis is an outcome of an investigation undertaken by the writer, at the suggestion of Professor Skeats, of the dykes and associated auriferous reefs of the Walhalla-Wood's Point belt, with the view of determining what relation, if any, existed between the petrological nature and the extent of llietasomatic alteration undergone by the dykes, and the genesis and localization of the gold.Although the greater part of the writer's time in the field and laboratory was occupied in studying the dykes and auriferous occurrences, a study was also made of the general geology as a basis for the special investigation. In addition, it soon became evident in the field that secondary enrichment had played a marked part in re-concentrating the gold and some interesting data in this connection have been collected. For example, indubitable evidence has been found of nuggets of gold having been formed by secondary processes.

Jan 1, 1920

The paper describes a simulating method.for ground water contamination originating from industrial and mining activrty. The finite difference model simulates heat, mass and solute transport. The applied stochastical method for dispersion provides more accurate solution of mass transport modelling. This method gives a more realistic approach of chemical processes in an aquifer depending on temperature.

Jan 1, 1988

By S Miller, A Neale

As part of a long-term acid rock drainage (ARD) mitigation study, PT Freeport Indonesia has completed the construction of a highly instrumented, full-scale, experimental, overburden stockpile to further evaluate the behaviour of the waste rock system at Grasberg mine. A total of 24 lysimeters, 30 sets of thermistor strings and 48 oxygen-sampling ports were installed at select locations during stockpile construction. ARD flow rates and chemistry have been recorded since the start of overburden rock placement in April 2000. Measurements of in situ temperatures and oxygen concentrations quantify reaction rates and the oxygen pathways that control oxidation kinetics deep within the waste rock profile. Direct field observations show the significance of advective oxygen flow with respect to the onset of oxidation kinetics. Oxygen measurements show that the rubble zone that forms at the base of a waste rock bench provides a critical pathway for oxygen entry to the waste rock profile. Furthermore, rapid oxidation as evidenced by measured temperature increases deep within the panels of waste rock is observed to occur. The observations presented in this paper provide critical insight for understanding the mechanisms and behaviour of full-scale waste rock stockpiles with respect to ARD generation. The results of this program will assist in the future selection, testing and evaluation of appropriate mitigation measures with respect to surface and face treatments to reduce long-term ARD generation. This project is a work in progress, and at least another two-years will be required to fully understand site-specific ARD generation and ARD mitigation mechanisms. This paper will discuss various design and construction considerations, provide an overview of results achieved to date, and some preliminary interpretation of what is happening within the overburden stockpiles.

Jan 1, 2003

By H Beucher

The uranium grade in roll front deposits is the result of successive processes that can be summarised in two steps. First a sedimentary phase, which gives the deposit support, then an oxidation-reduction phenomenon, which leads to the uranium deposit itself. In order to simulate such a deposit, it is important to mimic these different phases. The final aim of such a study is to localise the uranium itself and to reproduce the internal heterogeneity of the orebody in order to simulate the recovery process. The idea in this paper is not to reproduce a genetic approach but to consider the final image of the deposit. Three approaches are proposed. The first one consists of simulating the facies of the sedimentary deposit. The second approach reproduces the distribution of facies resulting from oxidation phenomenon (reduced or oxidised facies). The third approach consists of simulating the mineralisation at the interface of reduced and oxidised areas using the definition of a new data set determined by the grade values. At the end of each approach, the uranium grade could be simulated facies by facies according to the corresponding distribution characteristics. The plurigaussian method dedicated to random set simulations is well-suited for the facies simulations of deposits resulting from several sedimentary processes whether correlated or not. In this paper, the benefit of this method is demonstrated in an actual case study.

Jan 1, 2006

By W J. Shaw

Geometallurgical modelling is now a hot topic in deposit evaluation and in optimising mine performance; however, its history is long and varied. Historically metallurgical sampling has frequently suffered from a lack of data due to the cost of producing representative bulk samples. In the early 1990s geometallurgical modelling similarly suffered from a lack of data due to complex, time consuming and expensive sampling techniques. More recently, simple and relatively cheap tests for geometallurgical variables such as hardness, grindability, throughput, SAG power index, bond work index, crushing index, mineral recovery and concentrate grade have become widespread. The cheaper sampling has resulted in relatively large geometallurgical databases. However, most of the geometallurgical variables sampled are implicitly (and incorrectly) assumed to be additive when modelled by traditional geostatistical techniques, often leading to ill-informed and costly decisions. Geometallurgical variables are mostly non-additive so the current geostatistical challenge is to develop new approaches to dealing with this type of data. This paper briefly describes a historical case study of geometallurgical modelling of the George Fisher Pb-Zn mine completed in the mid 1990s, then outlines some of the current misconceptions of geometallurgical data and modelling techniques regularly applied to it, and finally discusses some recent developments in geometallurgical modelling, with examples from a number of current clients indicating the direction forward.

Jan 1, 2009

By Vidalinc, Raffoux

Longwall faces producing in the order of 20,000 tons per day of raw coal are presently running in the Houilleres du Bassin de Lorraine of Charbonnages de France. Production levels of twice that level pose some technical and economic problems of coal cutting, ventilation, coal and equipment transportation in the.face and from the face to the sur- face. The peak productions of the equipment in use today, the results of trials with new equipment, the utili- sation of forecasting models (some in the form of software), allow us to fo- resee feasable technical solutions to these problems. They will first be considered in the best possible context (thick- ness, dip, non gassy, soft coal, good strata, no faults). This will give. the necessary conditions to reach daily output'of that level. A sensitivity analysis of these- figures to the effective natural con- ditions will then be undertaken and the implication of such a project on health and safety (dust, climate ...) will be carefully considered. A concise technical and econo- mical approach will permit us to fore- cast the economical interferences of such production units and specially the consequences of sudden variations of the output (downtimes, failures, etc). From this investigation, goals for technological development and re- search areas will be outlined to be able to reach this production target in the XXIst century.

Jan 1, 1988

Recent geological mapping has indicated changes to the stratigraphy of the Pine Creek Geosyncline. The new stratigraphy and interpreted depositional environments are examined in relation to the distribution and genesis of stratabound mineral deposits. Basinward correlations are made with near-shore carbonate and psammite-rudite units in the Rum Jungle region. Most other units in the same region are condensed, indicating long- lived supratidal, intertidal or shallow conditions during most of the depositional cycle. Units containing most of the mineralisation represent the earliest near-shore developments of strongly reducing partly pelitic and evaporitic conditions and contain mainly uranium and base metals. Restricted distal, strongly reducing facies with associated felsic volcanics are also well mineralised, and mainly contain gold, silver and base metals, although some deposits are probably genetically related to synorogenic or postorogenic granites. Mineralisation in other facies is almost all epigenetic hydrothermal in origin, although minor mineralisation is related to volcanics, or dolomitic parts of the sequence. Areas of potential mineralisation include near-shore environments in the north, and carbonate reefs along growth faults. Two suites of postorogenic felsic volcanics and related sediments deposited in shallow water within and around northwest and east-northeast rift systems, overlie the metasediments of the Pine Creek Geosyncline in the south. The suites have potential for volcanogenic deposits, mostly of uranium, gold and copper.

Jan 1, 1984

By A Chandra, P Guj

Only a few complex real options can be valued using closed-form equations, such as the Black and Scholes formula, because these algorithms are restrictive and prevent the construction of practical project evaluation models. Although a binomial lattice method paired with the ærisk-neutral probabilityÆ provides an easier and flexible modelling of exploration and mining projects, it has limitations when projects are complex, long-lived and influenced by the interplay of various market and private uncertainties. In order to overcome these limitations, modern decision tree software using dynamic programming capability can be used for real option valuations. This is a powerful computational tool in which the impact of various sources of uncertainties can be differentiated, so that the optimal decision path can be explicitly displayed visually. There has been significant academic controversy surrounding whether different real option (RO) valuation methods would lead to different real option values (ROV). This paper, using a realistic copper mining example, demonstrates that as long as the same degree of subjectivity and consistency are used in different real option valuation methods, they yield the same result. This conclusion is valid irrespective of whether the cash flow volatility generated by various sources of uncertainties is handled in an aggregated or in an explicit and differentiated manner. This paper compares two choices for an investor either to æbuy now and developÆ a project or to enter into a ætwo-year option to purchaseÆ after the proponents have developed it. It also shows how significantly different net after-tax operating cash flows may be generated by these different choices on the same underlying asset represented by the project. This is due to the difference in the amount and timing of the relevant capital investments affecting the depreciation and amortisation charges and as a consequence, the income tax paid. CITATION:Guj, P and Chandra, A, 2012. Real option valuation of mineral exploration/mining projects using decision trees - Differentiating market risk from private risk, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 177-188 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 24, 2012

By A J. Tucker, L Bottomley

The principle objective of development mining is to create thoroughfares that can be accessed by personnel and machinery for the entire life of an underground mine. The drill and blast process, being the primary method used when creating these thoroughfares, needs to be able to adequately fracture the rock to be removed whilst at the same time minimising any damage that may be sustained to the rock surface that remains. This process of damage prevention is known by a variety of different names including smooth blasting, sculpture blasting, contour blasting and controlled blasting. Whilst the terms are different, the objective is the same and that is to reduce and better distribute the explosive charges to minimise stressing and fracturing of the rock beyond the neat excavation line. The process in this report will be referred to as perimeter control blasting. This paper will discuss the benefits of using perimeter control blasting in a development mining operation and the theories that govern how these blasting techniques work. The methods that are used to implement perimeter control blasting will also be addressed, paying particular attention to how these blasting techniques have evolved, spawning new and improved perimeter control products. Finally some attention will be given to the process of optimising perimeter control blasting in any underground mining operation.

Jan 1, 2005

A number of gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbons are transparent to incoming short-wave radiation, but are relatively opaque to outgoing longwave radiation. Variations in the concentration of these gases in the troposphere can alter the thermal balance of the earth's atmosphere. Outgoing terrestrial radiation which would otherwise escape to space, is trapped within the inner layer of the atmosphere, resulting in a greenhouse effect. It is estimated that at present greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, contribute about 50% to the greenhouse effect. However, in the future, the contribution made to the greenhouse effect by gases other than C02 will become increasingly more significant. Greenhouse gases arise from a wide range of sources and their escalating increease is largely related to an increase in the world's population, an increase in the standard of living of many areas and changes in lifestyle. The effect of increasing man-made greenhouse gases in the troposphere is unknown but it is proposed that it may increase temperature and may modify climate, agricultural response and land use. The sources of greenhouse gases are identified and found to comprise a wide range of activities. The contribution that coals use makes to the greenhouse effect is examined in detail. It is concluded that coals total contribution is small being about 10% of man made greenhouse gases. Envisaged expansion of coal's use will only cause a small increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Whilst developing technology for coal's use for power generation has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from new plants by approximately 25%.

Jan 1, 1989

By Quintiliani G, Giordano V

A research field of interest and a topical subject with the aim to reduce a considerable amount of coke in ironmaking is the injection into blast furnace stack of hot reducing gas combined with use of auxiliary fuels at tuyeres. In recent years evaluation studies and prelimirfary industrial experiments have been carried out on this subject in Europe and Japan. Even if these experiments seem to confirm the advantages theoretically expected, it appears as useful to cast more light on new problems concerning the improvements of this technique. In this report some aspects are analysed on fluid dynamics of blast furnace process with two gas flows: the main flow coming from the bosh and cross flow of the reducing gas injected in the lower shaft. A research on a blast furnace physical model was made with the aim to obtain information about the phenomena which occur in the full scale blast furnace. This work was carried out on cold models IN and tridimensional) in which the radial gas distribution was experimentally measured. A mathematical model based on gas diffusion was implemented aimed at simulating gas distribution inside the reactor taking into account the number of injection tuyeres. A good agreement between experimental and theoretical data allows for extending results to industrial practice in order to determine operating conditions assuring good performance of blast furnace with high amount of auxiliary fuels.

Jan 1, 1975

By R Valenta, J Owen, D Kemp, E Lebre, G Corder, J Thomas

Numerous recent analyses have shown that future demand for a broad range of critical commodities is unlikely to be met by new discoveries and recycling alone. The only practical alternative source to address this shortfall comes from orebodies which are currently either uneconomic or inaccessible. A common assumption is that a simple rise in commodity price will render these deposits economic. The mining industry has a long history of innovation allowing economic production from increasingly low grade and technically challenging orebodies. Industry “roadmaps” have been produced on a regular basis, with the aim of identifying future innovations which will allow this progression to continue. At the same time, there have been relatively few systematic analyses of the actual range of challenges facing undeveloped orebodies. The aim of this study is to analyse the mix of challenges faced by a group of undeveloped orebodies in order to better understand the relative importance and necessity of innovations applicable to the deposits, with the ultimate aim of determining the relative value and impact of possible innovations to the economic viability of those deposits. CITATION: Valenta, R, Lebre, E, Kemp, D, Owen, J, Corder, G and Thomas, J, 2018. Can a simple price-rise unlock complex copper orebodies?, in Proceedings Complex Orebodies Conference 2018, pp 71–72 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 21, 2018

By F Sahlström, E M. Jolis, V R Troll, E Jonsson, K Högdahl, C Harris

"An EXTENDED ABSTRACT is available for download. A full-length paper was not prepared for this presentation. The Bastnäs-type magnetite-skarn-hosted rare earth element (REE) mineralisations are located in the Palaeoproterozoic Bergslagen ore province, central Sweden, and occur along a ca 100 km long belt of 1.90–1.87 Ga metavolcanosedimentary rocks. Ten different Bastnäs-type deposits have been sampled in order to assess the origin of ore-forming fluids in these systems. Magnetite and quartz have d18O values ranging from -2.3 to +1.1‰ and +7.2 to +8.3‰ respectively. Mineralised carbonates have d18O values between +5.8 and +7.2‰ and d13C values between -5.4 and -3.3‰. Temperature calculations based on the O-isotope composition of mineral pairs, combined with available fluid inclusion data, suggest primary mineralisation at ca 650–400°C. For these temperatures, calculated equilibrium fluids have d18O values that range from those typical of magmatic fluids (+6 to +8‰) to lower values (down to +3‰). Variation in carbonate O and C isotope data are consistent with interaction between local Palaeoproterozoic carbonate rocks (d18O = +12.5 to +19.6‰ and d13C = -1.8 to +1.7‰) and fluids of a magmatic origin. It is suggested that the Bastnäs-type REE-magnetite mineralisations formed as a result of reactions between local carbonate units and high-temperature, magmatic-dominated hydrothermal fluids during 1.90–1.87 Ga (Svecofennian) syn-volcanic activity.CITATION:Sahlström, F, Jonsson, E, Högdahl, K, Harris, C, Troll, V R and Jolis, E M, 2015. O and C isotope study of Bastnäs-type rare earth element mineralisation, Bergslagen, Sweden, in Proceedings PACRIM 2015 Congress, pp 439–444 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Mar 18, 2015

By D McB Martin, A Piechocka, M Jessell, M Lindsay, E Ramanaidou

The Hamersley Basin of Western Australia, approximately 500 km long by 200 km wide, is recognised globally for its rich endowment of iron ore resources. Two types of bedded iron ore mineralisation are recognised: the Proterozoic hypogene martite-microplaty hematite ores; and the more recent Cenozoic supergene martite-goethite ores. Exploration strategies depend on the style of mineralisation being targeted; however, stratigraphy and structure are fundamental controls on both ore types. Therefore, the ability to visualise the 3D geology of the entire basin is critical for the understanding of iron ore occurrences and their relationship to ore genesis of bedded iron ore mineralisation. However, due to the large size of the basin, generating a 3D geological model of the regional stratigraphy and structure has not been possible, or prioritised, primarily due to software limitations. Recent advances in implicit automated geological modelling presents an ideal opportunity to develop a 3D model of the entire Hamersley Basin. The innovative Loop software was used to model open source geological data (ie geological mapping, outcrop orientation data, and fault data) sourced from the Geological Survey of Western Australia. In addition to generating a 3D geological model, information such as stratigraphic thickness and fault offset information was extracted using the map2loop module and demonstrated its application to exploration targeting. This study demonstrates how a basin-wide 3D geological model was used to conduct a regional structural analysis of the Hamersley Basin. The results of this study provide opportunities for other prospective regions to be rapidly modelled in order to enhance the understanding of the geology and improve exploration targeting.

Nov 8, 2021

By L Wsrell

During recent years the iron ore industry has experienced a continuous consolidation trend following increased merger and acquisition activities. Analysing and evaluating these mergers is important in order to establish potential effects. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the price effects caused by the merger between Rio Tinto and North Ltd in 2000. The merger was cleared by the European Commission, as well as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, shortly after its announcement. The analysis will be conducted using a simulation model based on a proportionality calibrated almost ideal demand system, which uses the premerger situation in order to estimate the post-merger outcome. The relevant market is defined using shipments data. This is followed by the simulation model applied to the defined relevant market. The results show that the concentration on the market, given by the HHI, increases approximately 15 per cent, and that the market share of the new companyÆs reaches almost 20 per cent. Compared to the CommissionÆs assessment the results indicate a more concentrated market and thus a higher concern for possible competitive effects. Furthermore, the results suggest that the predicted average market price increase from the merger is 1.6 per cent. However, the merged firm is able to increase their average price by 5.1 per cent.

Jan 1, 2005