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By Martin Murenbeeld

Outlook: Nine Bullish Arguments 1. Global fiscal and monetary reflation: PIIGS, US, etc. 2. Global imbalances: the dollar must decline 3. Global FX reserves are ?excessive?: diversification 4. Central bank attitudes to gold: now positive 5. Gold is not in a bubble: room to rise 6. Mine supply is flat: ?peak? gold? 7. Investment demand: long-run uptrend 8. Commodity price cycle: many years to run 9. Geopolitical environment: positive

May 1, 2010

By J. D. Bliss, G. J. Orris, W. O. Menzie

"Analysis of gold placer data from gold placers throughout the world suggests that gold grades and volumes cannot be used to distinguish between most types of gold placers. Only the alluvial plain and fan placers are significantly different among the types of gold placers considered. Gold grades and volumes change when working gold placers go from small-volume methods to large-volume methods. The small-volume methods are either of the surface or subsurface (drift mining) type. The odds that a gold placer will be dominantly worked using small volume methods at the surface are about 5:3. Once small volume mining has occurred, the odds against subsequent large-volume mining are about 4:1. If a placer deposit is suitable for large-volume mining, and the amount of gold produced from small-volume mining was reported, an estimate of the remaining gold (log10kg) can be made using the following equation:The relationship shown by this equation suggests that very large gold placers have over half their total gold content in the rich gravels appropriate for small-volume mining. These relationships in conjunction with other data and computer simulation can be used to estimate placer gold resources for an area targeted for mineral resource assessment. IntroductionGold placers have been an important source of gold throughout man's history and may have been one of the first sources-dating back to around 6000 B.C. (Gregory, 1980). From the primitive basket to the modern floating dredge, a variety of methods have been used to work gold placers. Placers are found in a wide spectrum of geologic and climatic settings. They have been classified by using a mixed set of criteria including age (Recent, Tertiary), climate (desert), fluvial position (modern channel, bench, alluvial fan), environment of deposition (eluvial, alluvial, residual, beach), type of transport (stream, wind, glacier), and whether the placer is buried or at the surface (Boyle, 1979; Wells, 1969). Several mining methods have usually been used to extract gold from anyone placer."

Jan 1, 1987

By D. M. May

"Cut-and-fill mining is a stoping method that has been widely utilized in the mining industry over the past forty years. It took preference over shrinkage methods at Levack in the early 1930sbecause of its safety aspects; i.e., prompt support of the stope sidewalls, good working floors and better accessibility to support poor back areas. In addition, higher recoveries of ore were possible because of the flexibility of the method in that silling could take place easily at any horizon; low-grade ore could be sorted and left in the stope as fill and certain zones of rock could be left unmined. With modern techniques, a steady production rate can be established, as filling and mining can be carried out stimultaneously.AIthough there are numerous variations of cut-and-fill mining throughout the world, this paper reviews the original type of mining, with modifications and improvements through the years to present modern practices, with the Levack West operation appearing to be the most productive at this time. Stoping efficiencies have also increased substantially from the original 10 tons per manshift to the present 55 tons per manshift.The paper also outlines the many improvements that have been made with respect to mucking and ground support operations; from hand mucking in a single stope to the use of frontend loaders and haulage trucks in fully accessible stope complexes; and from timber props to roof bolts of various types. Although present methods are extremely satisfactory, experimentation is continually being conducted to improve safety and productivity for future mining.IntroductionThe major mining operations of the Ontario Division of Inco Limited are located in the Sudbury Basin (Fig. 1). Around the rim of this geological formation and within 30 miles of the City of Sudbury are nine producing mines and one ' open pit operated by the company .Ore production currently approximates 11.5 million tons per annum from underground and open-pit operations. Underground mining methods include sub-level caving, shrinkage, cut and fill, undercut and fill, blasthole and vertical retreat. The Levack Complex, the main plant of which is the central Levack Mine, produces 11,000 tons per day.The first prospecting in the Levack area, in 1887, was conducted by James Stobie, who examined rock cuts along the route of the Canadian Pacific Railway to the northwest of Sudbury. However, it wasn't until 1913 that operations commenced at Levack under the Mond Nickel Company."

Jan 1, 1981

By James L. Oleson, Hunter R. Propsom, Kevan J. R. Ford, Robert D. Henderson, Bob Musgrove

"Kinross’ Fort Knox Gold mine, near Fairbanks, Alaska has successfully implemented two major metallurgical continuous improvement projects resulting in growth of gold production and an extension of mine life. In 2009, Fort Knox produced 263,153 oz of gold at a cash operating cost of $543/oz. In 2010, approximately 63% of the gold will be produced from the CIP circuit, 15% of the gold from the gravity circuit and 22% of the gold from the heap leach.In 2009, a 44,000 ton per day run-of-mine valley fill heap leach facility was constructed and commissioned as a cost effective treatment option for low grade ores to supplement the higher grade mill. The heap leach facility will produce approximately 100,000 ounces of gold per year under severe winter conditions. Heap leach gold recovery, based on test work shows 30% after a 55-day leach cycle, with long term ultimate gold recovery targeted at 65%. The paper presents the heap leach design concepts and production data.Additionally in 2009, installation of a Knelson gravity concentrator unit (XD70) was completed. This together with an Acacia intense leach reactor (AILR) has increased overall mill gold recovery from 79.3% to 80.7%. A manual shaking table gold recovery operation has been replaced by batch intensive cyanidation of the high grade Knelson concentrates. Increased removal of coarse gold and difficult-to-leach gold species from the grinding circuit, via the gravity circuit, has improved gold leach recovery in the conventional whole-ore tank leach CIP circuit. The paper presents plant operating data, showing the improvements over the old flowsheet.Focus on the metallurgical properties of the high grade and low grade end components of the Fort Knox ore has resulted in significant improvement to gold recovery."

Jan 1, 2011

By Z. Jun, L. Kerning

Jinlong copper smelter and refinery, originally designed for 100,000tpa primary copper and started up in 1997, has been expanding its capacity on the basis of operational optimization and by modifying its facilities. Currently it is producing 210,000tpa primary copper, and the new phase of expansion project with a target capacity of 350,000tpa primary copper is ongoing. This paper reviews problems and improvements made with operation and equipment in the past years. Recent plant operation is briefly described. The expansion projects completed are summarized and the ongoing expansion project is present.

Jan 1, 2007

By N. Yamazaki

The supply of clean copper ores, which have high copper concentration and low impurities like arsenic, has declined year by year. Therefore, both mine and smelter sides have to consider how to remove impurities like arsenic. We focus herein on arsenic as an impurity because it is an extremely important issue from the environmental point of view. Approximately 150,000 t of arsenic is input into the copper industry every year. A small part of it is mainly treated in the smelting side. For instance, Ministro Hales Limited, which is a mining corporation in Chile, has performed the calcination process to remove arsenic from ore with high-arsenic content. In the process, flue gas is washed by water, and the final residue is treated by a hydrometallurgical process. Many processes for arsenic removal in various stages have been proposed, and several bottlenecks exist to achieve it. One of the difficulties encountered is getting an assessment of the process, which depends on the countries and/or areas of operation. The standardization of the assessment procedure will be desired in the near future to keep the same environment standards all over the world, and now is the time to start making discussions on this matter. This will be the first step in making an international assessment procedure for arsenic treatment in the copper industry. INTRODUCTION Using the term “sustainable development” without any scientific basis can give people a false sense of security. Engineers and scientists must analyze the total mass flow of energy and materials and estimate local drain on the environment as well as the global impact of a particular industrial activity to ensure sustainability on this planet. The operations of the mining and smelting industries have a strong effect on the environment even if they provide useful materials for human beings. The copper mining and smelting industries have brought about serious environmental problems in the past. For example, the Ashio mine pollution caused big damage to the agricultural sector near the Ashio area in Japan in the late 19th century. One of the most serious problems at that time was SO2 emission because copper ore is sulfide, and the smelting process basically results to sulfur oxidation. The resource balance from a copper smelter in a year, assuming a total production of 16 million tons, can be summarized as follows: discarded minerals, 30 billion tons; sulfur, 16 million tons; iron oxide, 8 million tons; additional smaller amounts of other metals, electricity, and fuel.

Jan 1, 2019

By David Humphreys

It is difficult to overstate the importance of China to the future of the world mining and metals industries. In a remarkably short time, China has risen to become the world?s largest producer and consumer of steel and its second largest consumer of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminium. It is currently the world?s largest buyer of copper on international markets, the second largest buyer of iron ore, and the third largest buyer of alumina. At the same time, it is the world?s largest or second largest producer and exporter of tin, lead, zinc, magnesium and a host of minor metals and industrial minerals, as well as a fast-growing exporter of coal.

May 1, 2002

By Tom Olsen, Tom Ohrling, Peter Taggart, Chris Martin

"North American Palladium commissioned the new concentrator at the Lac des Iles mine in the summer of 2001. The 15,000 tonnes per day mill replaced the existing 2,400 tonnes per day facility, as part of a major mine expansion.At Lac des Iles, the grain size distribution of the platinum group minerals (PGM) is bi-modal. Roughly two-thirds of the PGM are relatively coarse-grained, and often associated with fast floating copper and nickel sulphides. The remainder is ultra-fine, and locked in silicates, which poses a special challenge to the metallurgist. The previous mill typically recovered just the fast-floating mineralisation, but to achieve target recoveries, the new mill has to recover a substantial amount of the ultra-fine PGM. The metallurgical challenges associated with the recovery of fine-grained PGM in the talcous Lac des Iles ores, are described.The paper describes the approach used in circuit optimisation, and how metallurgical and operational optimisation raised palladium recoveries by more than 6% in six months, by tuning the circuit to recover some of the ultra-fine PGM mineralisation.BACKGROUNDThe Lac des Iles mine, owned and operated by North American Palladium Limited, is located about 115 kilometres north of Thunder Bay, Ontario. The mine originally opened in December 1993, and prior to 2001 included a mill capable of handling 2,400 tonnes per day of ore delivered from the nearby Roby pit.Following an intensive exploration programme conducted in 1999, and a detailed feasibility study, conducted in 2000, North American Palladium initiated a mine expansion project, the objective being to expand milling throughput from 2,400 tonnes per day to 15,000 tonnes per day. This required construction of an entirely new mill, which was commissioned in May 2001."

Jan 1, 2003

By H. Soto, J. Jara, F. Nava

"A combination of oxidation and precipitation was used to eliminate cyanide from gold milling effluents. Preliminary laboratory work developed with both synthetic cyanide solutions and with industrial effluents indicated that ozone can easily destroy free cyanide and weakly complexed cyanide (i.e. copper and zinc cyanide). In this case the reaction is quite fast and seems to be controlled by the mass transfer of ozone to the solution. Experimental results indicate that free cyanide and weak-acid dissociable cyanide in mill effluents can be reduced to less than 1 ppm. However, the iron-cyanide complexes proved to be quite resilient to destruction with ozone and they remained in the solution even after most of the free and weakly complexed cyanide was destroyed with ozone. These results were confirmed in a pilot trial developed at the Sphinx plant in northern Quebec.To deal with the problem presented by the presence of the iron complexes two different approaches were studied: use of a combination ozone-ultraviolet light oxidation, and the precipitation of iron-ferrocyanide complexes in the residual solution after ozonation. This last method proved quite promising since reduced the total cyanide levels of industrial solutions assaying as much as 250 ppm to less than 1 ppm of total cyanide. Control of the · pH of the solution was the key to obtain the precipitation of the iron complexes. The use of iron to precipitate cyanide complexes has the advantage of being less expensive and less toxic than copper (used by the Inco process)."

Jan 1, 1992

By J. G. Ross

IN the paper entitled Block Caving at the King Mine (1), which was presented at the Annual General Meeting held in April, 1934, at Quebec, it was pointed out that, owing to certain conditions and financial restrictions, it was advisable to provide a temporary shaft. This was raised from the )00-ft. level to the bottom of the pit, and a 45-degree incline track was constructed up the face of the pit to surface. The temporary shaft and incline were within the ore-body, but were to be used only until such time as the new shaft-the subject of this paper-could be sunk and made ready for operation. After a careful study had been made of all available information pertaining to the ore-body, including examination of diamond-drill core records and geological data, a shaft location was selected well outside the ore-body. Further, since the crusher and dryer buildings are located over part of the ore-body, it was necessary to plan the removal of these buildings and to construct a new crushing and drying plant. This, and the new shaft, must operate in conjunction with the present mill and rock storage bin, which would continue robe used as formerly. No part of this programme, with the exception of drifting toward the shaft site, was started prior to 1937. More than usual detail on technical features is given in this paper in the hope that some parts of it may be of assistance to other members of the Institute who have to undertake somewhat similar work. The engineering and operating staff designed and supervised the work, while at the same time carrying on regular production in four mines at the rate of 12,000 tons of rock mined per day, the output at the King mine being at the rate of 140 tons per hour. No additional engineers were required.

Jan 1, 1939

By S. Banisi, H. R. Iran-Manesh, M. R. Shayestefar, H. Shekarchyan

"Flotation circuit of the Sarcheshmeh copper mine processes 41,000 t/d of ore at 0.9% Cu. Chalcopyrite and chalcocite are the main copper bearing minerals which are concentrated in three stages of roughing, cleaning and recleaning. Due to major changes in the reagent addition regime, make-up balls combination, and throughput to the primary mills an increase of 2.6% (from 87.2% to 89.8%) in the sulfide copper recovery was obtained during a period of six years. In order to investigate a rather large variation of monthly recovery (i.e., from 89.0 to 91.2%) of the plant after implementation of the changes, a study was undertaken to trace mineralogically possible causes of such a behavior. During a five-month period, monthly composite samples of feed and tailings of the flotation circuit were taken. At the first stage, the polished sample preparation method and the mineral counting procedure were optimized through a detailed study. Liberation degrees and types of locking of valuable minerals in both streams were determined in three size intervals of +75, +38 and –38 microns. It was found that for both recovery levels (i.e., 89% and 91.2%), there was no significant difference in the liberation degrees of valuable minerals in the flotation feed; the average liberation degree was 57.1% with a standard deviation of 3.1%. On the other hand, in the case of high recovery level (i.e., 91.2%) there was a reduction of 15% in the amount of free valuable minerals in the tailings stream. The highest reduction was found for the -38 micron size range in particular for chalcocite. It was concluded that compared to the grinding circuit the change in the flotation circuit had the significant effect on the plant recovery increase.INTRODUCTIONThe Sarcheshmeh copper ore body contains 1 billion tonnes averaging 0.90 % copper and 0.03 % molybdenum. It is located southeast of Iran and currently processes 41,000 t/d of ore. The concentrator has been in operation since 1982. Last year, the concentrator produced 130,000 tonnes of copper and 4,000 tonnes of molybednite concentrate. An expansion to the plant which will increase the throughput by 50% is under construction and will be effective in 2003.After three stages of crushing, the ore with a F80 of 12.7 mm is fed to 8 parallel ball mills in closed circuit with cyclones to produce a product 70% finer than 75 microns. The concentrate of the first stage of flotation is reground and the tailings constitute the main component of the plant final tailings. A concentrate with an average grade of 30.5% Cu is obtained after cleaning and re-cleaning stages. At the present time, the average sulfide copper recovery of the plant is 89.8% which varies depending on the operating conditions and ore type."

Jan 1, 2003

?General Facts:Barrick?sFirst Mine in Peru Production started in November 1998 ?The Facilities:Open Pit, Primary and Secondary Crusher Valley Fill Heap Leach PadMerrill Crowe PlantRefinery Environmental Facts: High Rainfall - Average Annual Precipitation of 1,200 mm (47 inches) Rainfall Events: Common 20mm daily events High Altitude Site - Elevations range from 3900 to 4250m. Steep topography - Terrain ranges from 3:1 slopes up to cliffs. Water Issues: Sediment Control - Open Pit PAG Encapsulation - Waste Dump Stormwater control - Leach Pad Erosion Control Techniques ? Offsite impacts mitigation Social Issues: 11 communities surrounding the property Town of Huaraz

May 1, 2003

By G. M. Carrie

Introduction The subject of basic refractories is daily becoming of increased importance in metallurgical processes, and there is a constantly growing necessity for the development of better materials. This fact, together with the realization that Canada possesses one of the best sources of such refractories in the British Empire, if not in the world, made it appear? advisable that the subject be presented to the Empire Mining and Metallurgical Congress at the 1927 meeting. Having been in close touch with developments in the Canadian product during the past five years, G. M. Carrie was requested to prepare such a paper. The Canadian producers of magnesia refractories have succeeded in developing the product to a place where it has almost entirely displaced imported materials from the Canadian market. These developments were made possible by a close study of the methods of preparation of the material, and by an exceedingly careful control of the manufacturing process so as to obtain a thorough blending of the different constituents with the resultant uniformity of composition. This point is very important to the metallurgist, as un-uniform materials are a potent cause of difficulties in most manufacturing processes and the constant trend is towards their elimination. The temperature at which the Canadian material is burned ensures high specific gravity and thorough shrinkage. The grain size of the product is so controlled that the voids are only just sufficient to allow of proper bonding, thus making possible a dense, hard bottom affording high resistance to erosion and shock. Careful proportioning of the constituent elements absolutely prevents disintegration.

Jan 1, 1927

By Alan Galley

CMIC Mandate CIM Annual Meeting, Toronto, May 6, 2013 To increase mining research, innovation and commercialization efforts in order to strengthen Canada?s pre-eminent role as a global leader in mineral exploration, mining and knowledge-based services and technologies. To increase the supply of highly qualified graduates from mining and earth sciences faculties to meet the significant demand today and into the future of industry, governments and academia. The CMIC initiative is intended to develop long term research strategies that extend five or greater years. Such a research plan will underpin fundamental research and innovation and the training of HQP

May 1, 2013

By R. J. Balfour, T. L. Papucciyan

"INTRODUCTIONCapital Cost considerations are basic to feasibility in the achievement of success for Mineral Processing Projects as much as or more than in many other industries. Capital cost is an important factor ae it 1R the unit of measurement for process engineering economic decisions. As a result of ever increasing complexity, alternatives of process and remoteness of site, there is an ever increasing emphasis on accurate estimating and the attendant cost control systems in the international market of today for the Mineral Industry where initial plant costs are becoming a more important factor than operating costs. An undervaluation means trouble ahead. An over-cautious assessment may bring an unnecessary abandonment of a project. Consequently, the ultimate cost must be predicted early and accurately and must be controlled to this parameter during the design and construction phases. Cost Est!~ mating is one of a variety of project management tools used to assist in planning and achieving the optimum balance between Quality, Cost and Time, the eternal triangle of evaluation, namely obtaining a project of acceptable quality at minimum cost and on time. In order to attain these established objectives, proper planning, organizing, coordinating, monitoring, adjusting and controlling the design, procurement and construction elements of the project are essential.This project management approach based upon the principle of a Task Force under single management, comprising a complete service organization, requires a substantial number of qualified individuals specialized in their own field and capable of working together as a team to perform their various functions effectively. The Task Force is supported by their chiefs of discipline and performs in accordance with established procedures and standards under the leadership of a Project Manager.General Engineering Company Limited with the backing of the full resources of Surveyer, Nenniger & Chenevert and its total staff of approximately 1,0009 offers the complete project management service to the Mineral Processing Industry of North America and the rest of the world. As mine sites become more remote and difficult of access, the need for an experienced team of specialists who work under the Task Force principle, with well established standards and procedures becomes even more important. Our long history of successful pro1ecta in this field has been our training ground for the fulfillment of this need."

Jan 1, 1972

By J. A. McLennan

Nickel laterite deposits are typically formed from tropically weathered mafic-ultramafic complexes. The resulting nickel concentration is found within soil horizons and is mineable with regular dozer units. At the time of mining, digging elevations are needed at selective mining units (SMUs). Moreover, for mine planning, the costs due to dilution and lost ore require mining elevations to be specified. A conditional simulation approach is used to calculate ?optimum? SMU mining elevations. Multiple realizations of the ore base surface are simulated. For a single bottom surface realization, dilution and lost ore costs are calculated over the entire vertical extent of each SMU. The optimum mining elevation is the elevation where the lowest summed cost of ?accepting dilution? and ?wasting ore? occurs. The reported SMU dilution is the cost of mining the volume of waste located below the bottom surface and above the optimum mining elevation and the reported SMU lost ore is the cost of not mining the volume of ore above the bottom surface and below the optimum mining elevation. For all ore bottom surface realizations, optimum SMU mining elevations and their associated dilution and lost ore costs are calculated and compiled to represent production uncertainty.

Apr 1, 2005

By Rodolfo Espinosa

"Industrias Peñoles, S.A. de C.V. in Mexico, has nine mining operations, six managed by Peñoles (base metal mines) and three managed by Fresnillo plc (precious metal mines). Seven of the operations use flotation and the other two are heap leach operations, one for gold and the other one for copper.This paper gives a brief introduction of Peñoles, shows mine locations and describes the main process characteristics of each concentrator. It also presents four of the new operating practices that were implemented over the last four years to improve the economics of the mining operations. These include (1) the use of centrifugal gravity concentrators to increase the recovery of gravity recoverable gold (GRG) and silver (GRS), (2) the use of expert systems to reduce process variability while increasing grades and recoveries, (3) the application of the Six Sigma methodology to key projects to ensure success and personnel development and (4) the use of water chemistry fundamentals to identify chemistry problems and design adequate solutions for improving grades and recoveries.INTRODUCTIONPeñoles was founded in 1887. It is a mining group with integrated smelting, refining and chemicals producing operations. Peñoles is the world largest producer of refined silver and metallic bismuth, the leading Latin American producer of refined gold and lead. It is amongst the world leading producers of refined zinc and sodium sulfate.Peñoles operates and controls six underground mines in Mexico and is the largest producer of zinc and lead of the country. It also produces copper concentrates and cathodes. Through its 77.1% equity stake in Fresnillo plc (a London Stock Exchange listed company); Peñoles is also a significant producer of gold and silver. Fresnillo plc operates three precious metal mines in Mexico. While Fresnillo is the world largest primary silver mine, Ciénega and Herradura are two leading gold mines of Mexico. Figure 1 shows a map of Mexico indicating the locations of the Peñoles mines. The main process characteristics of each concentrator are listed in Table 1."

Jan 1, 2011

By J. Cayouette

In 1995, Louvicourt mine started one of the first paste backfill operations in Canada. From 500 000 t in 1995, the annual paste backfill tonnage produced reached 800 000 t in 1999. The maximum throughput of the surface plant (including binders) is 3500 tpd with a final density of 75% to 76% solids which gives a slump of 15 cm to 17 cm. Following the start-up of the paste backfill plant, the backfill strength performance levels were well below the pilot plant’s predictions. The introduction of ferrous slag, laboratory tests on various binder ratios with or without additives, and the desliming of the tailings enabled us to optimize the mix and operation costs. Primary and secondary stopes are filled respectively with a paste containing 4.5% and 2% binders in a mixture of 20% cement to 80% ferrous slag. In certain stopes, the binder ratio may vary from 2% to 7%, but always in a ratio of 80/20. Six years after start-up, or 4.5 Mt of paste backfill later, this paper discusses the present operation and the major changes that have occurred over the years to optimize both the operation and the paste fill quality.

Jan 1, 2003

By Carlos León, David Estrella, Javier Linares

"Recently, Antamina has completed an expansion program of its operations which increased the thoughput in grinding from acapacity of 109 to 130 ktpd. After commissioning, throughput could be exceeded in grinding and downstream processes but primary crushing became a major bottleneck to the overall production process.With an objective to increase the processing capacity of the primary crusher system, a multidisciplinary team was formed with members of Mine, Concentrator and Maintenance departments, who analyzed the overall context of this process restriction. The main implementations developed were: automatic discharge systems of trucks, logic to count trucks and elaboration of a daily performance report. Following implementation of developed improvements, the numbers of discharged trucks to crusher were increased from 449 to 614 units per day. As a result, the expansion target of 130 ktpd was exceeded and processing capacity was increased from 109 ktpd to 145 ktpd. This improvement adds very significant economical value for Antamina.INTRODUCTIONAntamina is a copper-zinc mine located in the Peruvian Andes. Compañía Minera Antamina is owned by BHP Billiton (33.75%), Xstrata (33.75%), Teck Cominco (22.5%), and Mitsubishi (10%). The mine was commissioned in 2001 with a capital investment of US$2.3 billion, and had a nominal 77,000 ktpd mill capacity. Mining, milling, flotation, and tailings impoundment take place at the mine site, which sits at an altitude of 4,300 m above sea level. The deposit is a polymetallic skarn ore body with intrusive phases of quartz-monzonite porphyry into Cretaceous aged limestone. Copper is present mainly as chalcopyrite with a minor bornite component. Zinc is present as sphalerite. Molybdenum is present as molybdenite. Some lead, bismuth, and silver are associated with the sulphides. The deposit is currently classified into six main ore types [Dechert, 2006], grouped into two categories: copper and copper-zinc. The mill produces four concentrate types: copper, molybdenum, zinc, and lead-bismuth. Copper and zinc, concentrates are transported by pipeline down to the port of Huarmey. Molybdenum and lead-bismuth concentrates are bagged and trucked to port."

Jan 1, 2013

By A. Cabañas

"In this paper, geostatistical techniques are applied to forecast the annual copper price in the short and medium terms (from one to five years ahead). These techniques allow the incorporation of monthly and multivariate information in the analysis and provide more accurate results than traditional approaches, especially as far as the one-year forecast is concerned.A second advantage of geostatistics stems from its ability to assess the uncertainty associated with the unknown future prices, thanks to estimation variances or confidence intervals, depending on the technique used. Such an assessment has a crucial importance in decision-making, from both macroeconomic and microeconomic points of view. IntroductionThe copper price traded in the London Metal Exchange is a relevant parameter for defining macroeconomic policies of producing countries like Chile. It is also a key factor for the mining companies, since fluctuations in the sell price affect the expected financial flows. Due to the amount of money involved in decision-making, it is necessary to have accurate forecasts of the future copper prices and to quantify the uncertainty associated with such prices.This paper focuses on the annual copper price estimation in the short and medium terms, i.e., from one to five years into the future. Henceforth, the word “estimation” will be used as a synonym of “forecast,” according to the geostatistical jargon (Matheron, 1989).Two main approaches, based either on statistics or econometrics, are currently used to forecast commodity prices, but both of them are not very accurate when applied to copper. First, the main methods are briefly reviewed, then the geostatistical formalism will be presented. So far, the latter approach hardly has been used to estimate commodity prices, although it may reconcile both statistics and econometrics via (1) the use of a stochastic approach and (2) the handling of ancillary variables related to the copper market. Another advantage of geostatistical techniques is the ability not only to forecast the copper price, but also to measure the uncertainty associated with it."

Jan 1, 2004