Search Documents

By M. E. Rossi, J. E. Camacho

"Geostatistical conditional simulations are becoming increasingly popular as tools that provide models of uncertainty at different stages of a mining project. They have been used as grade control tools in daily operations to assess the uncertainty of mineable reserves at the project’s feasibility stage, and to assess mineralization potential in certain settings. Other applications include assessment of recoverable reserves, resource and reserve classification, and drill hole spacing optimization studies. All large-scale applications of conditional simulations intend to benefit from the correct (or accurate) characterization of uncertainty, adequately describing the variability observed from the data and its effect on the final objective.The objective of this paper is to compare the ad-hoc uncertainty model provided by a traditional classification scheme with the probability intervals resulting from a conditional simulation model. It is argued that the uncertainty model derived from the use of classification schemes is of little practical use to the mining company or operation. The paper emphasizes differences in uncertainty based on the size of the mining unit considered, the extraction method, and local geological differences. Most importantly, it discusses confidence intervals for these mining units, as compared to the relative precision envisioned by a typical classification scheme.The application described in this paper is taken from a medium-sized Cu open pit and underground mine in northern Chile, and demonstrates the impact of several variables on the resulting conditional simulation models. It also compares a more traditional resource classification scheme applied, and the wide difference in local confidence intervals for each mining unit."

Jan 1, 2004

By Jonathan Allen, Peter Radziszewski

"Stirred mill technology dates back to 1928 where the idea to use “an agitator and spherical grinding media” was presented. The year 1948 saw the successful application of DuPont’s “sand mill” for pigment grinding. Subsequent years have led to the development of different types of stirred mills spanning a number of industries that require fine and ultrafine grinding. In the context of the mining industry, smaller grain size and other mineralogical characteristics have motivated the need to grind finer. In order to address this need, the interest in stirred milling technologies has grown over the last 20 years as can be illustrated by the large body of literature published over this same period of time. The typical observation reported in the literature is that in certain circumstances stirred milling is significantly more efficient than ball milling. Despite these developments, the tumbling mills are continuing to be used in fine and ultrafine grinding applications. The main reason for this, as communicated at the Canadian Mineral Processors roundtable discussion in 2013, is that the comfort level in understanding stirred milling technologies is not at the level of that of tumbling mills. The aim of this paper is to contribute to increasing the general comfort level with stirred milling technologies by developing a better understanding of how power and energy is affected by stirred mill impellor design and mill operation. This will be accomplished by first completing an overview of the power models found in the literature followed by a general description of DEM and CFD stirred mill models as well as the insights that can be drawn from them. Finally, a generic stirred mill power model will be presented and applied to different stirred mill types in order to develop some insights into the differences between different mill types. The paper will close with a discussion on some of the challenges that these models have and how future research might contribute to overcoming them."

Jan 1, 2014

By Hans de Ruiter

"Delft University of Technology, RWTH Aachen, Helsinki University of Technology and Imperial College established the Federation of European Mineral Programs (FEMP) in 1999 as a legal body to coordinate joint M.Sc. education.By 2003 the number of participating universities in Europe has grown to 9 (in 7 countries) offering 3 different M.Sc. joint programs. Furthermore students from 8 universities in the USA, Canada, Australia and Chile participate through exchange agreements. About 25 companies are associated with FEMP. Further expansion with other clusters of universities is being investigated.So far some 160 students have taken the programs and are working in all parts of the world in a variety of jobs.The European Commission has recently announced the new “Erasmus World” program that will stimulate the offering of joint programs by European universities and offer third-country students and teachers a greater opportunity for mobility and an enhanced European added value. Host European postgraduate courses will be selected for a five-year period. They will receive funding from the Community and a “EU” seal. Around 250 “EU Masters Courses” will be established.The envisaged new Erasmus program and it’s network and operating practices are very similar to those being used by EMC, EMEC and EGEC. Erasmus World therefore offers a great opportunity for further developments with FEMP as the official body.INTRODUCTIONThe current situation in Europe is that globalisation of the supply of mineral resources has caused the larger mining and the manufacturing companies to expand and invest particularly outside Europe. However these industries still have a great significance for the European Union and its members, which means that mineral engineering know-how is still important in the E.U. It was therefore realised in the mid-nineties that is vital to maintain the very high level of knowledge and skill base in mining engineering and mineral technology that currently exists in the E.U., through good and well-balanced education programs."

Jan 1, 2004

By A. G. Doll

"Multi-stage crushing plants, including high pressure grinding roll (HPGR) circuits, require more materials handling equipment than SAG and ball mill circuits. A temptation exists to neglect the energy consumption of materials handling when doing desktop comparisons of HPGR versus SAG milling circuits because estimation of materials handling power requirements can demand significant general arrangement drafting that is not available when performing preliminary scoping or ""desktop"" studies.The largest component of materials handling power is consumed by conveyors when lifting material between stages of crushing, meaning that a simple potential energy model can be used to evaluate conveying specific power consumption. This potential energy consumption for conveying can then be factored to provide overall materials handling specific energy consumption suitable for desktop studies of HPGR and other multi-stage crushing circuits. The technique also permits different crushing circuit flowsheets to be evaluated, at a preliminary level, by simply counting the number of times a conveyor must ""lift"" ore from ground level up to a bin or other equipment mounted up high.INTRODUCTIONTrade-off studies of multi-stage crushing plants involving high pressure grinding rolls (HPGRs) versus semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) mill circuits typically focus on the operating cost savings of crushing plants versus the capital cost savings of SAG mill plants. Very high-level (or desktop) studies of this type do not include a great deal of engineering work, meaning that the details (and costs) of ancillary systems are often not captured when doing the comparisons. The more complicated nature of the multistage crushing plants means there are more ancillary systems than a SAG mill plant, risking a skewed analysis of the operating costs, benefiting the HPGR option.One of the ancillary systems that may be overlooked is the more complicated conveying systems inherent in multi-stage crushing plants. Due to the mass of material being handled in large mining operations, these conveyors become a significant portion of the operating costs. A simple way to estimate the specific energy consumption of conveying systems without requiring engineering drawings and a site layout would allow high-level studies to capture this operating cost."

Jan 1, 2015

By C. O’Hara, S. Roy, K. Swedburg, J. Katchen

"New Gold Inc.’s New Afton concentrator commenced operation in June 2012, producing a copper-gold-silver concentrate. During the first two years of operation, various optimization efforts have improved mill throughput, recoveries and concentrate grade. Daily mill throughput has increased 20% above the design rate. This was achieved through more consistent instantaneous feed rate and size distribution from the mine reclaim stockpile, higher pebble crusher reliability, changes to the SAG and ball mill grinding media sizes, larger SAG grate openings, reduced SAG discharge screen-deck aperture size and an increase in the maximum ball mill power draw limit. Metal recoveries at New Afton are primarily limited by liberation in the coarser size fractions; therefore, improving the grind size at a given mill throughput has been the main means of improving recovery. The average rougher flotation feed F80 size was reduced from 175µm in Q1 2013 to 165µm in Q1 2014, while the average operating mill throughput increased by 25%. Other flotation circuit changes focusing on recovery improvement include the addition of froth crowders to the rougher cells and the use of a stronger frother. The average concentrate grade increased from 22% Cu in Q1 2013 to 25% Cu in Q1 2014. This was achieved by redirecting the flash flotation concentrate stream to the regrind circuit and by the addition of lime to the cleaner circuit.This paper describes the above improvements made at the New Afton mill. The paper describes the objectives, timing and end result of each area of improvement.IntroductionThe New Afton Mine is situated approximately 10km west of Kamloops, British Columbia, 340km north-east of Vancouver. The mine has a moderate climate, access to transportation and electrical infrastructure, nearby fresh water supply, and close proximity to industrial and mining service businesses. The population of Kamloops is around 90,000 with most mine employees living in or around the city."

Jan 1, 2015

By Sydney C. Mifflen

COAL MINING, with its some 15,000 employees, is directly responsible for the livelihood of one-fifth of the population of the Province of Nova Scotia and indirectly so for that of possibly another fifth. Deposits of coal are known and worked in four counties of the Province, from which is being produced yearly tonnages as noted below: Cumberland County 750,000 tons Piccou County 400,000 tons Inverness County 100,000 tons Cape Breton County 5,250,000 tons TOTAL FOR NOVA SCOTIA 6,500,000 tons Production in Cape Breton county is entirely from the one source, the Sydney coalfield, and not only is this field the most important in respect to output, as is disclosed above, but it is also the largest presently known deposit in the Province and holds the greatest tonnage yet in reserve for future mining. In the light of the above more or less generally known facts, it is trite to remark on the importance of the Sydney coalfield in the internal economy of the Province. On the other hand, not nearly as well-known nor as frankly recognized is its significance in the national life of Canada, for from this field is produced not only 80 per cent of the Nova Scotia coal but over 40 per cent of all coal mined in the Dominion. Another noteworthy comparison can be made from the fact that the Sydney field contributes 22 per cent of all the bituminous coal consumed in Canada, the remainder being made up of 7 per cent mined elsewhere in Nova Scotia, 27 per cent from other parts of Canada (British Columbia and Alberta, principally), while the remaining 44 per cent is imported, practically wholly, from the United States of America.

Jan 1, 1941

By L. Li

The backfilling of underground stopes is a common practice throughout the mining industry. The stresses imposed by the backfill on the surrounding rock mass need to be assessed because of their influence on ground stability and on the hydro-geochemical response of the fill material. There is, however, a complex interaction between the relatively soft backfill and the much stiffer adjacent rock mass. In recent years, the authors have presented results from investigations conducted on stress distributions (obtained numerically and analytically) in and around backfilled stopes with (sub)vertical walls. In this paper, the influence of stope inclination and of backfill properties is evaluated. Results indicate that, in general, the vertical and horizontal stresses in inclined stopes are close to, but somewhat smaller than the stresses in vertical stopes. Nonetheless, significant differences can be observed in some cases, especially for the vertical stress along the inclined central line and along the hanging wall. It is further shown that neglecting deformability in limit equilibrium analyses is an acceptable assumption. However, Poisson?s ratio and the dilatancy angle, usually neglected in limit equilibrium analyses, may have significant effect on the stress distribution. Results also confirm that the backfill strength parameters (cohesion and friction angle) are critical factors required to properly evaluate the stress distribution, at least within a certain range of parameter values.

May 1, 2007

By Claude MacDonald, John H. Ashburn

"IntroductionIndustrial growth and technological change over recent years had been accompanied by two major sources of concern to management and employees: (a) increase in occupational injury and illness and the resultant costs involved; and (b) equipment damage and breakdowns in concentrated production lines causing more extensive loss potential.Due to economic factors, management attention has focussed more on production and quality than on safety, health and related loss potential sources. As a result , occupational safety and health activism has grown, government legislation of compensation and occupational safety and health standards have progressively developed and stronger liability attitudes have been taken by courts of law.To improve efficiency and allow development in more competitive markets, rising labour costs, equipment costs and safety related financial losses have dictated that attention be given to conservation of all resources. Conservation of resources, people, equipment, material and environment, can no longer be addressed in isolation but must be managed integrally with production and quality. To this end, systems have developed utilizing sound management principles applied with equal intensity to production, quality and loss potential"

Jan 1, 1987

By C. Larsen, I. Orford, L. Strah, M. Renaud, P. Radziszewski

"An AG/SAG mill was commissioned at the Brunswick mine concentrator in October 1998. This paper discusses the original shell top hat liner design for the bi-directional AG/SAG mill, observed liner wear, subsequent liner design modifications, and benefits.The original liners were chrome-moly steel Norsteel with rubber grates and rubber-lined pulp lifters. The design was based on experiences of other AG/SAG mills and recommendations by the liner supplier, Norcast. Liner design modifications were made in an iterative fashion after observing the wear rate profile of the liners; over ten liner sets were implemented. Shell liner design improvements were supported by a design of experiments approach in conjunction with discrete element method (DEM) charge motion simulations. Design optimization took into account lining costs and impacts on operating performance. The team approach to the liner design improvements process is described with emphasis on the application of the design of experiments. The liner wear history and mill operating performance are presented."

Jan 1, 2005

By Dina M. Aloi

In today?s evolving and globalized world, mining companies are being pressured to move beyond compliance towards long-term sustainability and sustainable development. Companies are expected to ?engage? communities without a clear understanding of ?how? to do this or to what end. This move, away from compliance, develops more of a focus on ?Community? Social Responsibility and sustainability. This shift leads to the development of world-class projects that provide sustainable development for people, reduce the incidence of costly delays, and promote good global citizenship for companies. The process of ?engaging? communities in mining project design and development leads to a stronger license to operate, and a reduction in social and political risk. To create this mutually beneficial relationship between communities and companies, communities must be ?engaged? in the project development and risk assessment processes as early as possible, preferably during the exploration or the concept phases. How to create this ?engagement? and manage this risk will be discussed.

May 1, 2007

The stability of paste fill bulkheads forms an integral part of a successful paste fill system. Bulkheads are constructed at the draw points of open stopes to contain paste fill while the initial pour cures and forms a consolidated plug. Mobilization of uncured paste fill as a result of a bulkhead failure can lead to significant consequences, including endangering the safety of personnel, property damage and production losses and delays. The loading conditions in the paste fill and the resultant lateral loads on the bulkheads are complex and are dependent on many factors. This paper presents a case study of several paste fill bulkhead failures; the results of an in-situ pressure monitoring program to ascertain the pressure loads, and the subsequent paste fill bulkhead evaluation.

May 1, 2007

By Benoît Demers

Dans ses opérations de traitement de concentré de zinc, l?usine de Zinc Électrolytique du Canada à Valleyfield génère un résidu minier appelé « jarosite ». Jusqu?en 1998, le jarosite était transporté hydrauliquement dans des bassins construits en argile. Le jarosite sédimenté possède une consistance très molle (impossible de circuler à pied sur le résidu consolidé) avec une eau interstitielle acide contenant des teneurs élevées en métaux. Ces caractéristiques particulières au jarosite rendaient très coûteuses la construction et la fermeture des bassins de résidus. En 1998, Zinc Électrolytique du Canada a implanté un nouveau procédé, développé chez Noranda, dont le principal objectif était de stabiliser chimiquement et physiquement le jarosite. Un nouveau concept de déposition a été élaboré pour le nouveau résidu minier appelé « jarofix ». Les grandes caractéristiques du nouveau procédé et du concept de déposition sont : ? Le jarosite est lavé et déshydraté à l?usine avec un système de filtre; ? De la chaux, du ciment et de l?eau sont ajoutés pour former le jarofix; ? Le jarofix est transporté par camions jusqu?à l?aire d?accumulation; ? À l?aire d?accumulation, le résidu est géré selon un concept d?empilement. L?élaboration du concept d?empilement et de l?aire d?accumulation devait tenir compte des caractéristiques de déposition du jarofix, de sa résistance à l?érosion hydrique et éolienne, de la gestion de l?eau de ruissellement, de la faisabilité de construire les digues de ceinture en utilisant du jarofix durci et de la nécessité de restaurer progressivement l?aire d?accumulation. Le déchargement du jarofix se fait à partir d?une rampe qui progresse avec une pente ascendante pour développer un front de déversement de plus en plus haut. La hauteur du tas de jarofix atteindra 30 m au centre du site. L?aménagement initial de 1998 a inclut une digue d?amorce de 3 m de hauteur, une rampe de déversement de 8 m de hauteur et un bassin pour la gestion de l?eau de ruissellement. Les propriétés du jarofix consolidé dans l?aire d?accumulation sont déterminées annuellement. Le jarofix durci possède la consistance et la résistance d?une argile très raide. Sa conductivité hydraulique est similaire à celle d?un silt et il résiste bien à l?érosion éolienne. Après trois années de déposition, la température du jarofix au milieu du dépôt demeure élevée. Le jarofix durci est facile à excaver et à compacter, ce qui en fait un excellent matériau pour la construction des digues de ceinture en périphérie du site.

Nov 1, 2002

By J. S. Brock

Magnetic, electromagnetic and gravimetric surveys have played an important role in the mineral exploration leading to the discovery of three major massive sulphide deposits in the Anvil-Vangorda area of the Yukon Territory. During 1964 and 1965 a saturation prospecting program, relying heavily on the integrated use of airborne and ground geophysical survey techniques, led to the discovery of the Faro deposit, which was subsequently proven to be a 63-millionton lead-zinc orebody. Locating the Faro deposit, the largest found to date in this overburden-covered region, involved an exploration sequence requiring the selection of a favourable geologic environment, aeromagnetic and electromagnetic surveys, property acquisition of anomalous areas and detailed ground geophysical surveys, followed by rotary drill testing, detailed gravimetric surveys and diamond core drilling.

Jan 1, 1973

By Costa

The fly-in-fly-out (FIFO) mining model has significant implications for the industry as it plays an important role in fulfilling the economic, social and workforce needs of the contemporary mining industry. It has increasingly been adopted in countries such as Canada and Australia, but is the current nature of the FIFO model challenging the place women have achieved in the mining workforce? Research in the mining and oil and gas industries reveals that major sources of stress for fly-in-fly-out mining workers are the times of parting and of reunion, the challenges in defining roles within the family, parenting, and conflict between spouses over the use of the leave time and money. So how are women in the industry coping with the FIFO schedules and consequent intermittent relationship with families and partners? How is the mining industry adapting to recruit and maintain female employees in FIFO operations? This paper describes an exploratory study conducted in Canada, which intended to provide some initial insights that might help us answer the questions above. There are several inferences made from this exploratory study. It is clear that FIFO poses significant challenges for both female and male workers. It is largely seen as rigid, extremely challenging for employees with young families and workers who are single mothers, and it is generally incompatible with starting a family and caring for small children. FIFO creates severe stress on relationships and on workers psychological well-being. It seems to be indeed harder for women, since they are often in lower paying positions and therefore have less financial reward for the FIFO lifestyle. On the other hand, FIFO creates the opportunity for young women, including Aboriginal women, to jump-start their careers, as well as opportunities for mature women to work while pursuing other personal interests during their time off. This paper concludes with recommendations to improve the FIFO system in order to increase the ability of mining companies to hire and retain women

May 1, 2006

By D. F. Strong, P. P. O'Neill

"The Isle aux Morts Prospect is the first polymetallic, sulphide mineralization reported from the Port aux Basques Complex of southwest Newfoundland. Zn-Pb-Cu-Ba-Ag mineralization hosted by quartz-muscovite semipelite, occurs at the contact between a quartz of eldspathic unit and pelitic unit with intercalated amphibolite are minerals comprise sphalerite-galenachalcopyrite, in order of decreasing abundance. The principal gangue minerals are quartz, muscovite, feldspar and barite. Three morphologic types of mineralization are present: massive with more than 50% sulphide, flanked on one or both sides by disseminated and/or banded types. The massive type of mineralization exhibits a :durchbewegung"" fabric of rounded silicate fragments in a sulphide matrix, characteristic of intensely deformed and metamorphosed sulphide bodies. Sulphide minerals have been mobilized and recrystallized and share the same metamorphic and deformational history as the host rocks. Quartz muscovite schist which hosts disseminated mineralization, displays a K2O enrichment and Na2O depletion, that is typical of alteration associated with sulphide bodies in volcano sedimentary sequences. Isotopic ratios of sulphur are comparable to those of volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits.Despite penetrative deformation and metamorphic recrystallization, features of the local geology and the mineralization suggest that the Isle aux Morts Prospect is volcanogenic in origin. IntroductionFollowing the release of a government lake sediment survey (Butler and Davenport, 1980), which indicated anomalous concentrations of metals in southwest Newfoundland, geologists with Utah Mines Ltd. discovered the Isle aux Morts Prospect, a Zn-Pb-Cu-Ba-Ag showing, located approximately 15 km northeast of Port aux Basques (Figs. I and 2). The mineralization occurs in quartz-muscovite schist and is the first significant basemetal discovery in the Port aux Basques Complex."

Jan 1, 1988

By Toshiharu Teranishi

When we apply the Au nanoparticle superlattices to the future nanooptical and nanoelectronic devices, the control of not only the particle size but also the interparticle spacing and symmetry of superlattice are the essential problems to be overcome. First, we developed a novel synthetic procedure to precisely control the particle size of alkanethiol-protected Au nanoparticles in the range from 1.5 to 9.7 nm by the heat-treatment of the small Au nanoparticles in the solid state. Absorption and nonlinear optical properties of alkanethiol-protected Au nanoparticle superlattices were then elucidated. On the other hand, the hexagonal close-packed (hcp) 2D superlattices of small Au nanoparticles with the interparticle spacings from 1.9 to 3.6 nm were successfully prepared by using newly-synthesized ligand for single electron tunneling devices. Finally, various symmetric superlattices, such as chain (2-fold), quasi-honeycomb (3-fold), square (4-fold), etc., of Au nanoparticles could be produced by making use of interligand interactions or some templates.

Oct 1, 2003

By N. Romani, R. Provost

"Commissioning of a circulating dry scrubber (CDS) plant was recently completed at an existing facility in Québec, Canada. The CDS plant treats the sulphur dioxide off-gas emitted from rotary kilns in order to meet increasingly stringent environmental requirements. This installation enables the existing facility to reduce their sulphur emissions by over 90%.Proper planning of the different commissioning stages and staffing an integrated team are the most important factors required for a successful plant start-up. A strong Operational Readiness plan must be in place as early as the start of construction in order to ensure a smooth transition from commissioning to operations. Plant performance can meet or exceed performance criteria within the required timeframe if the proper group dynamic and good communication is established between construction, commissioning and operations teams.The road blocks encountered are often from systems that one assumes will operate without trouble such as air-conditioning, or design assumptions that were taken years earlier in feasibility process stages, namely the capacity of existing systems that will connect the new plant to the existing facilities. The challenges associated with rectifying these issues in addition to the requirements to properly start-up and operate a new plant without impacting production are great, and it is imperative to have the necessary resources to react quickly to any problems.IntroductionCommissioning of a circulating dry scrubber (CDS) plant was recently completed at an existing facility in Québec, Canada. The CDS plant treats the sulphur dioxide off-gas emitted from rotary kilns in order to meet increasingly stringent environmental requirements. This installation enables the existing facility to reduce their sulphur emissions by over 90%.The CDS ProcessA general overview of the CDS process is presented in Figure 1 below. The combined, de-dusted off-gas from multiple kilns is sent to the CDS, which acts as an entrained fluid bed, where the gas is contacted with a water mist, re-circulated solids and hydrated lime. The SO2 from the gas stream and the available calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) from the hydrated lime dissolve in the water and react to ultimately form calcium sulphites and gypsum. The solid residue (referred to as CDS residue), is the primary by-product of the process."

Jan 1, 2016

By Antônio Peres, Rogério Guimaraes, Lauro Takata, Harold Wyslouzil

"Serrana’s concentrator, in Araxii, has capacity of producing approximately 800,000 tomes of phosphate rock per year, with a P205 grade of 36%, from ores grading between 13% and 14% P205. The annual mining rate is around 3.5 Mt and the apatite is concentrated according to the following sequence: crushing, grinding, desliming, flotation and low and high intensity magnetic separations.Two industrial flotation columns (3.0 m x 4.5 m x 14.5 m) were commissioned in 1993 as a replacement for circuits of barite and apatite fines flotation. In 1994, four additional flotation columns of the same dimensions were put into operation, replacing 42 Wemco mechanical cells (300 ft3 each), in the barite pre-flotation, coarse apatite (two columns) and tailings regrind flotation Circuits. Overall, 66 mechanical cells (300 ft3 each) were replaced by only six flotation columns, designed by Cominco Engineering Services Ltd - CESL.The present paper describes the stages of process development, pilot plant testwork and implementation of the industrial project, highlighting the most relevant aspects of each of them. The results achieved are related to improvements in flotation selectivity, gains in P205 recovery and better process control, resulting in better quality products and lower production costs. Other benefits included a decrease in flotation reagents, electrical energy and maintenance materials consumption. These factors contributed to a significant decrease in the cost of phosphate rock production at Serrana, in Araxa - M G."

Jan 1, 1999

By A. Cabañas

"In this paper, geostatistical techniques are applied to forecast the annual copper price in the short and medium terms (from one to five years ahead). These techniques allow the incorporation of monthly and multivariate information in the analysis and provide more accurate results than traditional approaches, especially as far as the one-year forecast is concerned.A second advantage of geostatistics stems from its ability to assess the uncertainty associated with the unknown future prices, thanks to estimation variances or confidence intervals, depending on the technique used. Such an assessment has a crucial importance in decision-making, from both macroeconomic and microeconomic points of view. IntroductionThe copper price traded in the London Metal Exchange is a relevant parameter for defining macroeconomic policies of producing countries like Chile. It is also a key factor for the mining companies, since fluctuations in the sell price affect the expected financial flows. Due to the amount of money involved in decision-making, it is necessary to have accurate forecasts of the future copper prices and to quantify the uncertainty associated with such prices.This paper focuses on the annual copper price estimation in the short and medium terms, i.e., from one to five years into the future. Henceforth, the word “estimation” will be used as a synonym of “forecast,” according to the geostatistical jargon (Matheron, 1989).Two main approaches, based either on statistics or econometrics, are currently used to forecast commodity prices, but both of them are not very accurate when applied to copper. First, the main methods are briefly reviewed, then the geostatistical formalism will be presented. So far, the latter approach hardly has been used to estimate commodity prices, although it may reconcile both statistics and econometrics via (1) the use of a stochastic approach and (2) the handling of ancillary variables related to the copper market. Another advantage of geostatistical techniques is the ability not only to forecast the copper price, but also to measure the uncertainty associated with it."

Jan 1, 2004

In this paper, geostatistical techniques are applied to forecast the annual copper price in the short and medium terms (from one to five years ahead). These techniques allow the incorporation of monthly and multivariate information in the analysis and provide more accurate results than traditional approaches, especially as far as the one-year forecast is concerned. A second advantage of geostatistics stems from its ability to assess the uncertainty associated with the unknown future prices, thanks to estimation variances or confidence intervals, depending on the technique used. Such an assessment has a crucial importance in decision-making, from both macroeconomic and microeconomic points of view

Sep 1, 2004