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By Thomas, J. Elmer

WHEN the price of crude oil was advanced on July 26, 1928, with some 4,000,000 bbl. daily of potential production shut in under proration regulations, and with as much more new production shortly available from semi-proved undrilled reserves, students of the oil industry were made to realize that a new order of things now prevailed in petroleum economics. A new interpretation of the law of supply and demand had taken the place of the archaic method of influencing current production by changing crude price levels. Proration had caused the change. The long period of over-production just experienced, the prospects of a potential over-supply far into the future, had set up certain forces which brought about some fundamental changes. Their cause, effect and future influence can best be developed by a detailed study of the history of the period since war-time regulation

Jan 1, 1928

By AIME AIME

AS a new departure the annual business meeting was held at 4 p. m. on Tuesday, Feb. 16, instead of in the morning, as previously. The retiring President, Robert E. Tally, called the meeting to order and briefly spoke of the large measure of success that had been attained in balancing the budget of the Institute in 1931, so that, although receipts had declined over $26,000 compared to the previous year, expenditures had come within $3,000 of income. He referred in complimentary ,terms to the work of the committees on Membership, Admissions, Papers and Publications, and MINING AND METALLURGY, from which more would be heard late:. He also announced that a large and important committee on economics has been under consideration, and will be announced later. As an evidence of growth it was noted that a new Division, Mineral Industry Education, had been organized just an hour previously.

Jan 1, 1932

By E. J. Wasp, N. T. Cowper, R. A. Davis, W. F. McDermott

On October 26, 1967, the world's first long distance iron ore slurry line was put into service by Savage River Mines. The commissioning of this $5 million installation climaxed three years of development, testing, and construction. The mine and concentrator are located approximately 30 miles from the town of Waratah in a rugged semi-mountainous terrain. The open pit mine will produce approximately 5 million long tons a year of crude ore, which is ground in autogenous mills, separated magnetically, thickened and prepared for the pipeline. The 53-mile pipeline transports the 2,250,000 tons of concentrate north to Port Latta. The Port Latta facilities include the receiving, storage and thickening equipment for the slurry as well as filtering, balling and pelletizing equipment to produce the 2,250,000 tons of high grade iron ore pellets. Five vertical shaft furnaces are used for pelletizing.

Jan 1, 1969

By A. W. Schlechten, R. P. Abendroth

Jan 1, 1960

By G. T. Engel, W. G. Gruzensky

Jan 1, 1960

By C. C. Harris, A. Jowett, S. K. Ghosh

An equation derived from first-order kinetics and accounting for return from froth to pulp has correlated continuous flotation data. The concentration of floatable material in the pulp can be altered either by changing the feed concentration or the feed rate. The latter does not affect the flotation rate constant, the froth to pulp return constant, and the concentration of non-floatable material in both the pulp and concentrate. Both the return constant and the concentration of non-floatable material in the pulp are directly proportional to the feed concentration, while the concentration of non-floatable material in the concentrate is related to the feed concentration. The investigation of the froth flotation process by continuous test methods, previously used by Brown and smith,1 Jowett and Safvi2 and Jowett and West,3 is being continued. Recent tests, primarily concerned with flotation cell design, have yielded kinetic data suitable for testing an equation proposed by Arbiter and Harris4 which postulates that a flotation process is defined by two rate constants: 1) the rate constant for mass transfer from pulp to froth. Previous workers have regarded this as the flotation rate constant. 2) the rate constant for mass transfer from froth to pulp, which has previously been ignored. THEORY Under continuous flow conditions at the steady state in Fig. 1 the equation developed4 is Symbols are defined in Table I. The air-liquid ratio terms4 have been omitted, since they are substantially constant for a given set of conditions. Also, for a system operating at the steady state Vf and V, remain constant and Eq. 1 can be written: Cp/Cc=b'/a,+Qc/a' [2]

Jan 1, 1963

The accompanying sketch shows the interesting position of Salt Lake City with reference to Western mining areas and justifies its title "The Center of Western Mining." In the last twenty years, the area embraced within a circle of 600 miles radius with Salt Lake City as its center has produced 79.87% of the gold, 91.9% of the Silver, 77.47% of the copper, 53.61% of the lead and 26.55% of the zinc produced in the United States, including Alaska. This area also contains the greatest coal deposits of the continent, some of the greatest oil deposits, great iron deposits and many other important mineral resources. The 600-mile circle contained 69% of the active operators of other than coal mines and 40% of the men employed in mines other than coal mines of the United States, including Alaska, for the four-year period ended with 1923.

Jan 1, 1925

On Sept. 22 to 26, the Institute will hold its 120th meeting in Chicago. The program arranged provides for technical sessions on: Mine Taxation, Non-ferrous Metallography, Coal and Gas, Milling, Oil, Industrial Organization, Geology, Non-ferrous Metallurgy, Mining and Local Resources, Iron and Steel, Symposium on Sulfur Coals, Symposium on Pyrometry. Inspection trips have been arranged to: Gary Steel Plant. La Salle District: Zinc smelters, coal mines, cement works, America's first permanganate plant, many varied industries, scenic trips. North Chicago and Milwaukee: Mining-machinery manufacturing plants, tungsten and molybdenum reduction plants. East Chicago and Whiting: Lead refinery, oil refinery. Franklin and McCoupin: Coal fields. Chicago: Nearly every kind of metallurgical and manufacturing industry. MONDAY, SEPT. 22d Morning Registration, Non-ferrous Metallurgy, Coal and Gas. Afternoon Coal and Gas Milling Industrial Geology, etc. Evening Smoker. TUESDAY Morning Gary. Afternoon Gary. Iron and Steel. Evening Oil, Iron and Steel.

Jan 9, 1919

The Industrial Minerals Division met jointly with the Materials and Equipment Division of the American Ceramic Society at State College, Pa, Sept 24-26 Headquarters were at the Nittany Lion Inn Thurs- day afternoon was devoted to a tour of inspection of the Bell Mine, American Lime and Stone Co , Bellefonte, Pa The party returned to State College for dinner and in the evening the Division's executive committee held a brief session There were four technical sessions Friday morning, Mining, afternoon, Beneficiation, Saturday morning, Industrial Minerals and Beneficiation There was an informal banquet at the Nittany Lion Inn Friday night with 93 present Edward Steidle was toastmaster Brief talks were made by President F C Flint and Secretary Ross Purdy, of the American Ceramic Society, Oliver Bowles, Chairman, Industrial Minerals Division, Adrian Morse, assistant to the president, Pennsylvania State College, and George Otis Smith, past president A I R'I E

Jan 1, 1937

Bailey, Lewis Newton, Master Engineer, Senior Grade, 4th Regiment, U. S. Engineers, Headquarters Company, died of pneumonia at Camp Merritt, N. J., on April 30, 1918. Baird, Louis, Lieut., Royal Field Artillery, British Army, died on the battlefield in 1915. Cobeldick, William Morley, Royal Engineers, died from gas poisoning on October 7, 1915. Dougall, Ralph, killed in action. Evans, Alfred Winter, Lieut.-Col., New Zealand Rifle Brigade, D. S. 0., D. C. M., killed in action on October 12, 1917. Gorman, Thomas C., Lieut., Canadian Engineers, killed in France, Mar. 18, 1918. Hague, William, 1st Lieut., Engineer Officers' Reserve Corps, died in active service. Hall, William T., Capt., Royal Flying Corps, killed in action. Heine, Bernhardt E., Lieut., Aviation Service, killed at Fort Sill, Okla., Aug. 10, 1918. Irving, John Duer, Capt., 11th Engineers, A. E. F., died while on active service in France on July 26, 1918.

Jan 9, 1918

By R. P. Harvey, J. E. Walstrom, A. A. Brown

In view of the large number of wells directionally drilled from offshore platforms and urban drillsites, greater interest is being focused on the directional survey and on the uncertainty inherent in calculating the position of the bottom of the hole, or other benchmarks in the wellbore. Of the two methods presented here for evaluating this uncertainty, the first is analytical and uses the principles of probability and statistics. The second method uses Monte Carlo simulation to generate a pattern of the scatter of possible bottom-hole locations. Both methods are based on a model for which the usual assumption is made that the curvilinear axis of the wellbore is adequately represented by a large number, M, of linear segments joined end to end from the top to the bottom of the hole and closely following the course of the hole. The errors due to this approximation are assumed to be negligible and are not studied here. One form of the model is to consider that for a given hole there exists a perfect set of data describing it, of the above form. Each linear segment has an angle of inclination with the vertical 7, in radians, an azimuthal angle from true north xi in radians, and a length Si, in feet. The subscript variable, i, extends from 1 to M. Each of the M linear segments representing the axis of the wellbore has three components in the X, Y, and Z directions. These components are calculated from the equations: The bottom-hole coordinates as determined from the reference set of data for the wellbore are given by the following for i = 1 to M: X=SX, Y = Sy, Z=SZ; . (2) A directional survey instrument, lowered into the wellbore to the M segments, or stations, measures the values of the 7; and the 3,. In general, because of errors from various sources, the resulting angular measurements will not be precisely equal to the 7" and xi. Random variables l, and Ai are therefore considered with associated probability density functions fi(li) and gi(Ai), respectively, which represent the distributions of potential survey measurements for this hole. Since it is assumed that the values Si are accurately measured they are treated deterministically. The random variables corresponding to the surveyed bottom-hole coordinates are given, for i = 1 to M, by:

Jan 1, 1970

By J. M. Toguri, K. Grjotheim

It is known 1,2 that the equilibrium between titanium metal, TiCl2 , and TiCl3, in a solvent of molten metal chlorides, is influenced both by the total amount of dissolved titanium and by the type of solvent. Assuming that the trivalent titanium forms the complex ion Ti111 Cl4, the equilibrium reaction may be expressed by the following equation, (Me) TiIII cl4+ 1/2 Ti = 3/2 TiII cl2+ (Me) Cl The ideal ionic equilibrium constant for this reaction is, Where the N's are the molar ionic fractions in the equilibrium melt, and (Me) the different types of cations present in the equilibrium mixture. The following thermodynamic relation is derived between Kand the concentration of cations in the equilibrium melt, mix The N"S are the equivalent ionic fractions, and so forth are constants corresponding to the standard changes in free energy for reactions in melts where only the cation indicated is present, and f (y1) is a function of the activity coefficients in the equilibrium mixture. When this term vanishes, a simplified linear relationship between In Kideal and the concentration is obtained. The simplified relationship has been applied with satisfactory results to the experimental data of Mellgren and pie,' and Kreye and Kellogg.2 MANY existing methods for the production of light metals involve the reduction of their respective metal halides in the presence of salt melts composed of alkali or alkaline earth chlorides. In such a solution phase, the light-metal halide may undergo stepwise reduction from a higher, to a lower valence, and finally to a zero valent state. In this connection, the disproportionation equilibrium is of great interest. In the case where the higher valence is three and the lower valence is two, the disproportionation equilibrium may be written as follows, 3 Me11 = 2 Me111 + Me [I] If this equilibrium occurs in a salt melt containing a large excess of alkali chlorides, a typical ionic melt is obtained. It is then possible to formulate the cation equilibrium: 2 Me+h' + Me = 3 Me++ [II] Reaction [11] is analogous to a cation exchange reaction. It has been shown thermodynamically that the equilibrium constant for such a reaction in 2

Jan 1, 1960

By A. A. Stripling

The Cretaceous limestone wells of the Mara/Maru-caibo Dist. of Venezuela are extremely prolific producers. To maintain production on cessation of natural flow, large scale gas-lift operations were commenced involving high production rates on caring Flow. For the design of these gas-lift installations it was essential to have some knowledge of the pressure gradients involved in casing flow, so that the required injection pressures, optimum gas injection raws, etc., could be forecast. This paper presents a method of calculating these annular pressure gradients. Basically the method makes use of an energy balance equation coupled with an empirical energy loss factor derived from field data. The calculations have been put in a form suitable for "punch card-type" calculating machines. A set of gradient curves for Mara/Maracaibo conditions covering flow rates up to 12,000 B/D, and GOR's of 500 to 2,000 cu fd/bbl is presented. From these curves the flowing BHP can be predicted from surface data and the vertical pow performance under varying conditions of gas injection can be estimated. The method has been applied to La Paz and Mam gas-lift operations for over three years and has given consistently accurate results. INTRODUCTION The Cretaceous limestone fields of the Mara/Maracaibo area in Venezuela are characterized by the presence of widely distributed fissure systems. Under these conditions individual wells frequently have extremely high potentials and such wells are generally flowed on the casing-tubing annulus in order to reduce the pressure loss in vertical flow. To maintain production on cessation of natural flow, an extensive gas-lift system was planned. As a first approach to this gas-lift design problem, an attempt was made to construct a set of empirical flowing gradient curves from the available subsurface pressure data. Such a method has been used successfully for tubing-flow conditions in California by Gilbert'. Unfortunately, the empirical construction of casing-flow gradient curves presents additional difficulties, as pres- sure bombs cannot bc run in the casing-tubing annulus against high rates of flow. Thus, the Full flowing gradients cannot be defined by actual measurement and the best that can be done is to obtain spot pressures at the tubing shoe. Under these conditions a vast accumulation of BHP data is required to construct a set of gradients. To the La Paz and Mara fields the majority of the available flowing pressure measurements fall into a relatively narrow GOR range, in the neighborhood of the solution ratio. While there appeared to be reasonable prospects of constructing gradient curves for this limited range, measurements at higher GOR's, which were of major interest for gas-lift operations, were relatively few and the prospects of constructing empirical curves cor~spondingly remote. As an alternative approach, the possibilities of a mathematical analysis of vertical flow conditions were investigated. May and Laird2fV n 1934 presented an excellent analysis of the vertical-flow conditions in the Anglo-Iranian Oil Co.'s fields. Their analysis was based on an energy-balance equation and calculated the losses due to kinetic energy, friction and slippage separately. By combining these losses with the total calculated available energy, the required depth-pressure traverse could be deduced. On applying the method to La Paz conditions, good results were obtained for tubing flow at high tubing-head pressures. However, for lower wellhead pressures (300 psi and under) the discrepancy between calculated and measured values increased appreciably. It was considered that this was probably due to energy losses caused by slippage or liquid hang-up in a continuous gas phase, for which it was difficult to visualize any analytical approach. In 1952 Poettmann and Carpenter4 presented a method of pressure gradient calculation which, while based on an energy-balance equation similar to that employed by May and Laird, made no attempt to evaluate the various components making up the total energy loss resulting from irreversibilities of flowing fluids. Instead, they proposed a method of analysis which assumed that all significant losses for multiphase flow could be correlated in a form similar to that of the Fanning equation for frictional losses in single-phase flow. They then derived an empirical relationship linking measurable field data with a factor which, when applied to the standard form of the Fanning equation, would enable the energy losses to be determined. The total available

By H. E. Hawkes, D. A. Barr

Time variations in the copper content of the sediments of streams draining mineralized areas were studied in two areas of contrasting climatic environment, one in northern and one in southern British Columbia. In each area, samples were collected and observations made of rainfall, stream discharge and air and water temperature at intervals throughout the summer season. Samples were analyzed for total and cold-extractable copper. Results showed a weak inverse relation between cold-extractable copper and discharge in two out of the three test sites in the southern area, and a decrease in ratio of COld-extractable to total copper over the duration of the test period at a highly anomalous site in the northern area. In suspended rock flour resulting from glacial erosion of mineralized rock in the northern area, virtually all the copper was found to be soluble in cold, dilute hydrochloric acid. None of the variations observed is sufficient to cause serious problems in geochemical sediment surveys. Systematic collection and trace analysis of stream sediments has seen wide application in recent years as a method of primary prospecting in primitive areas. Common practice is to collect fine-grained samples of sediment either from the active channel or from the flood plain near the channel. Samples are dried, sieved and the -80-mesh fraction analyzed after breakdown of the sample by a relatively strong attack, such as by fusion or by treatment with hot perchloric acid. Drying, sieving and rigorous chemical attack requires established facilities, either in a well equipped central laboratory or in base camp. Thus analysis for total metal involves a substantial delay from the time the samples are collected until the analytical data can be reported. An alternative system uses a cold aqueous extrac-tant in place of the hot acid or flux.4 Advantages of the cold-extraction techniques are that kits can be prepared for use directly at the sample site and that, in some problems, the patterns in cold-extractable metal, usually abbreviated cxMe, are more useful as ore guides than the patterns in total metal.' In the course of operational geochemical sediment surveys, a problem that has come up repeatedly is failure to reproduce anomalous values or patterns by resampling the same areas. The mystery of the vanishing anomaly has led to speculation as to whether there is a significant variation in the metal content of sediment samples with the weather or with the time of year. Review of the published literature shows that a number of experiments have been carried out on time variations in the metal content of stream water.1,2,5,7-9 The only published report on time variations in stream sediments that has come to the authors' attention, however, is by Govett,3 working in Northern Rhodesia.

Jan 1, 1963

By D. S. Pye, J. P. Gallus

Successful hydraulic pressure treatment of oil and gas wells that have long producing intervals, multiple pay zones, fluid thief zones, or natural or induced fractures has long been a serious problem plaguing the petroleum industry. High fluid-injection rates, straddle packers, ball sealers, and either liquid or solid additives to the treating fluids are being used to cope with this difficult and costly problem.l-6 The use of ball sealers and straddle packers is limited, in practice, to wells that have been completed with perforated cemented casings or liners. Well stimulation with ball sealers and straddle packers is usually successful as long as the cement remains competent. The other techniques of diverting are used with all types of completions. However, there are two significant disadvantages of the high rate method: excessive horsepower requirements, and the need of large treating-fluid volume. Consequently, most well stimulation techniques that involve diverting depend upon ball sealers or granular materials. Liquid diverting agents, and some of the solid ones in use today, frequently will cause formation damage. On the other hand, the most popular particulate diverting agents often are so soluble in the treating fluid that they become largely ineffective; their particle size is severely reduced as they dissolve while being transported through thousands of feet of pipe to the formation face down hole. In our attempts to deal with the shortcomings of these diverting agents, we experimented with a large variety of potentially suitable deformable materials the solubility of which could be controlled. Following are the criteria for the diverting agent sought: 1. The material must be effective in reducing fluid loss to thief zones, including existing fractures and very high permeability layers in the formation to be pressure treated. 2. The material must have enough strength to bridge under the treating pressure. 3. The material must be insoluble or slowly soluble in the treating fluids so that the particles retain sufficient size to be effective after they reach the formation face. 4. The material must be completely soluble in the produced oil or condensate liquid so that it can be removed readily; it must not cause formation damage. A number of products consisting of various polymers blended with waxes and other solid hydrocarbons were examined. All these materials satisfied the criteria for a diverting agent and also exhibited some degree of plastic deformability. On the basis of initial tests of strength and hardness, several blends of wax and polymer were selected for extensive testing in the laboratory and the field. These compounds have congealing temperatures ranging from 140 to 190F; they are insoluble in water and soluble in oil. They conformed, therefore, to the criteria specified for a theoretically superior diverting agent. Laboratory and field tests were conducted using these wax-polymer materials to demonstrate that the use of a deformable diverting agent can significantly improve fluid diverting performance. Data in this

Jan 1, 1970

By H. J. Gerritsen

From presently available components a portable, rugged, reliable apparatus can be built which will be able to detect methane concentrations of 0.1% and lower in air. Sensitivity and design considerations of the apparatus are given. Ways to build even simpler and cheaper apparatus in the future are indicated. Traditionally the problem of detecting and monitoring the presence of dangerous gases present in small concentrations in air has been a difficult one. Whether canaries,' or sophisticated chemical or thermal conductivity methods are used, they seem to be either slow, cumbersome, or otherwise not completely satis factory. A seemingly natural way of gas detection is to measure the strength of absorption undergone by light of a wavelength that the gas to be detected absorbs. This method has been difficult to apply in view of the low power output over a narrow wavelength range in the infrared from traditional glow bar light sources. Besides, the apparatus to select such a narrow band of wavelengths is quite costly and complex. The use of a laser solves these problems simultaneously. Although a variety of lasers are available to detect a variety of gases (such as carbon monoxide or methane) whose early detection would be desirable, this paper deals exclusively with the use of lasers for methane detection. ABSORPTION SPECTRUM OF METHANE IN AIR The absorption spectrum of pure methane is very well known.2-4 There are four fundamental vibrations, all occurring in the infrared of which only two absorb strongly. They occur at 3.3 µ and 7.7 µ. The absorption spectrum is quite complicated due to the fact that the methane molecule can rotate in a variety of rotational quantum states. These rotational states are furthermore split by anharmonic forces such as the Coriolis force.4 When methane is present in air at atmospheric pressure, much of the very fine structure due to the anharmonic force is washed out since the pressure broadening is of the same magnitude as the splitting due to anharmonicity. For most of the spectrum at 3.3 µ, the rotational lines are typically separated by 0.01µ while the individual linewidth is 0.0001 µ. It is thus very important that the laser emit at a wavelength that coincides with one of these rotational lines. Before elaborating on the point that such a laser exists and how it performs, it is necessary for later discussion to point out that in the

Jan 1, 1967

By Fred H. Perfect

The thermite process, now approximately 80 years old, has heretofore been practiced in ceramic vessels. This paper outlines the successful production of several million pounds of alloy produced in zuater-cooled copper vessels. THE high temperatures necessary to produce fluid high-alumina slags have probably discouraged earlier workers from attempting to utilize water-cooled vessels. The following is a report of the successful application of this method, together with a report of the physical and chemical problems which had to be solved to make the process practical. About 1955, when Reading Alloys was more concerned with the production of ferrotungsten than with most other types of alloys, it was found to be exceedingly difficult to predict the reaction rate that one would experience from one tungsten ore to another . This difficulty was increased for two reasons: the physical state of the ore as received was seldom uniform, and the size of the mass to be reduced is a very important factor in developing the proper mix for the final reaction rate and temperature. For example, the reduction of ferric oxide with aluminum would theoretically produce temperatures of about 2600°C, and, in spite of the losses due to radiation, the energy is quite sufficient to produce a very fluid slag and iron effecting a very clean separation. On the other hand, the reduction of ferrous oxide with aluminum, while it is not as energetic as the first reaction, nevertheless should give temperatures above 2000"C, which should cause separation of alumina and iron, but, in practice, this is not the case and good fluid slag is not obtained. The heat of reaction, calculated from the thermo-dynamic heats of formation of the constituents of the reaction, offers a convenient guide to the feasibility of a thermite reaction. Thus, the values listed in Table I can be used as an approximate guide for estimating the results which may be expected in the reduction of various oxides and combinations of oxides using aluminum as the reducing agent. As a generalization, those reactions releasing approximately 600 cal per g of total mass represent the lower limit at which to expect separation of slag and metal. On the other hand, those reactions which release 1100 to 1200 cal per g are too violent to be used successfully without the addition of considerable inert material, such as lime, fluorspar, and so forth. Reaction rate is also a very important factor. This, of course, is governed very largely by the sizing and intermingling of the oxidant and reductant and by the starting temperature of the reactants. This is why those figures shown in Table I can only be a general guide. Further, it must be understood, that by adding powerful oxidizing agents, such as nitrates, chlorates or metallic oxides, such as molybdenum trioxide or chromium trioxide, certain problems respecting low temperatures are not necessarily solved. This is true in the addition of oxidants, such as sodium chlorate. By adding too high a concentration of sodium chlorate as a booster for a particular reduction, explosions are generated. Generally, they are of an intermittent type so as to give a Roman Candle effect to the reduction itself; with each surge resulting from a minor explosion more and more material is thrown

Jan 1, 1968

By E. B. Brauer, W. Hurst, J. D. Clark

Because of drilling, completion, and workover practices, the permeability around a wellbore generally is different from the permeability of the formation. The zone with the altered permeability is called "skin" and its effect on the pressure or flow behavior of the well is called "skin effect". Hawkinsl has shown that the radius and the permeability of this zone are related to the skin by: If the permeability in the skin zone is less than that of the formation, the skin is positive; if it is more than that of the formation, the skin is negative. If the two permeabilities are equal, s is zero; that is, there is no skin. Van Everdingen2 and Hurst3 have given mathematical solutions to the case of a zone of reduced permeability around the wellbore. This skin effect is illustrated in Fig. 1. They treat the positive skin as a zone of reduced permeability of infinitesimal thickness around the wellbore. When applied to a well with negative skin, however, their solutions lead to the calculated flowing well pressure which is smaller than the formation pressure, i.e., an injection situation. This is a physical contradiction. In this paper, it is shown that this mathematical difficulty can be overcome by assuming an effective wellbore radius larger than the actual wellbore. Existing solutions2"4 are modified to include the effect of an enlarged wellbore radius, and thus enable the engineer to deal with negative as well as positive skins. Theoretical Development Van Everdingen and Hurst,4 through the use of Laplace transformation, obtained the following expression for transient fluid influx into a wellbore: The values for QtD, reported extensively by van Everdingen and Hurst,4 are obtained from the following integral:

Jan 1, 1970

By L. B. Slichter

Prospecting is certainly the world's biggest and best gambling business. It is a game where the chips cost many thousands and where many millions, even billions, can be won. An attractive feature of this gamble is the fact that the players are free to rig the odds as favorably as possible. Only the limited bounty of nature, the restrictions of the laws of the land, the competition from other players, the limited sagacity of the player himself— only these, and other factors, restrict the possibilities for large winnings. Today probably about half the land surface of the earth remains to be searched for signs of ore visible at the surface. It is fortunate that so much land still remains for exploration by relatively economical methods. Looking to the future, it is a good guess that the costs of finding ore will increase in response to increasing technical difficulties. To continue to achieve profits from prospecting, it will become necessary to analyze the business more skillfully, in a more and more sophisticated manner. Whenever feasible, qualitative concepts must be replaced by their quantitative equivalents, improvements, and extensions. THE GAMBLE The fact that prospecting is a gambling business reminds us at once of the elementary rule known as the law of gambler's ruin. I hesitate to mention so simple a rule in this company of experts. This rule expresses the rather serious chance of going broke when the odds for success are small, merely by a normal run of bad luck regardless of the long-run expectations of gain. The only sure way of avoiding this special risk of gambler's ruin is to have enough capital, and the will, to continue the play many times and thus ride out the inevitable runs of bad luck. For example, if the probability of success is one in ten for each venture, there is a 35 pct chance that ten successive ventures will fail in a row. But if one has the capital to continue the play through a run of 100 failures, then the chance of gambler's ruin is only 5 in 100,000. Almost any management, I suppose, would be under terrific pressure to cease the play during a long run of bad luck. To continue to prospect under such circumstances requires great confidence in the premises, and a firm conviction in the long-term expectation of profit. There is evidence which I shall mention that in the future even the strongest companies may not have the necessary capital to prospect on the ideal scale. Joint ventures will be very desirable as a means for extending the available venture

Jan 1, 1961

This discussion was prepared by members of the Phelps Dodge Corpn. staff who were designated to review the minutes. It is confidential but permission has been granted to distribute copies among those who attended the Conference. The minutes of the above conference contain numerous references to the plants and practices of Phelps Dodge Corporation. As many of these references are inaccurate, the following notes are made covering such points: Construction Magnesite Brick in Reverb. Arch (1) An.18" arch, 20 feet long, was built on one furnace with 5 feet on each side of magnesite brick, the center portion .being of silica brick. The furnace was put in operation February 13, 1930 and on April 23rd after 68.8 days' operation it was replaced due to failure of the silica brick forming the center of the arch. At this time, while the silica brick had completely gone, there was 14" of magnesite left. Bridgewall Tapping (2) Tapping matte through the burner wall was first tried at the Copper Queen Smelter in April, 1925. At that time, a copper casting with 1 ½ extra heavy pipes for water cooling cast in it, and having one taphole block was used. Later, on the other (old) furnaces, similar castings, but equipped with two tapholes, were used. We found with these furnaces that we could tap through the burner wall at the beginning of a campaign, but would subsequently have to go back to side wall tapping. This was the case until sometime in 1926. The new furnaces, that went in operation at the beginning of 1927, each had water. cooled castings with two tapholes. These have been used entirely and have been quite successful. Sometime after the furnaces were put into operation sidewall tapholes were put in, simply for the removal of any accumulation of matte that might be temporarily retained at the front end by bridges or dams in the furnace formed by overcharging locally.

Jan 1, 1930