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By Huleatt M, Perkin D, McLeod I, Mock C, Pratt R, Gourlay A, Timoney E, Knight N, Ward J

Generally speaking, Australia's reserves of its more important minerals (in terms of export earnings) are adequate to sustain forecast rates of production to the year 2000. The rate of forecast production increases of these commodities (aluminium - whether as bauxite, alumina or metal, black coal, iron ore and ferro-alloy minerals, base metals, tin, uranium, and mineral sands) reflects a well- ordered and sustained growth phase of Australia's mineral industry.

Jan 1, 1981

By I. E. Teymenson, L. A. Bakhvalov

Irrational usage of mineral commodities leads to depletion of natural resources and various ecological violations in natural environment. Fulfilment of a number of measures and strategic decisions by given problems requires a correct forecast of trends of social-economic systems. For solving the task of long-term forecasting special procedures, considering Kondratyev’s big cycles of world conjuncture, have been embedded into algorithms of unknown parameters identification and recovering of factors of different countries mineral resources production and consumption models. In the paper the classification of long cycles types, existing forecasting algorithms on the basis of Kondratyev’s ‘long waves’ or ‘K-waves’ and the modified algorithm, developed by us, which allows to reduce time and financial expenses and to improve the forecast quality, are presented. Furthermore, the article includes several forecasts of mining branch corrected models factors, received by us, permitting complex prognosis of economic and social development of different scale and control level systems. In the paper workability of proposed forecasting algorithms on the base of ‘K-waves’ and adequacy of created models to researched processes are proved.

Jan 1, 2003

In this paper, geostatistical techniques are applied to forecast the annual copper price in the short and medium terms (from one to five years ahead). These techniques allow the incorporation of monthly and multivariate information in the analysis and provide more accurate results than traditional approaches, especially as far as the one-year forecast is concerned. A second advantage of geostatistics stems from its ability to assess the uncertainty associated with the unknown future prices, thanks to estimation variances or confidence intervals, depending on the technique used. Such an assessment has a crucial importance in decision-making, from both macroeconomic and microeconomic points of view

Sep 1, 2004

By A. Cabañas

"In this paper, geostatistical techniques are applied to forecast the annual copper price in the short and medium terms (from one to five years ahead). These techniques allow the incorporation of monthly and multivariate information in the analysis and provide more accurate results than traditional approaches, especially as far as the one-year forecast is concerned.A second advantage of geostatistics stems from its ability to assess the uncertainty associated with the unknown future prices, thanks to estimation variances or confidence intervals, depending on the technique used. Such an assessment has a crucial importance in decision-making, from both macroeconomic and microeconomic points of view. IntroductionThe copper price traded in the London Metal Exchange is a relevant parameter for defining macroeconomic policies of producing countries like Chile. It is also a key factor for the mining companies, since fluctuations in the sell price affect the expected financial flows. Due to the amount of money involved in decision-making, it is necessary to have accurate forecasts of the future copper prices and to quantify the uncertainty associated with such prices.This paper focuses on the annual copper price estimation in the short and medium terms, i.e., from one to five years into the future. Henceforth, the word “estimation” will be used as a synonym of “forecast,” according to the geostatistical jargon (Matheron, 1989).Two main approaches, based either on statistics or econometrics, are currently used to forecast commodity prices, but both of them are not very accurate when applied to copper. First, the main methods are briefly reviewed, then the geostatistical formalism will be presented. So far, the latter approach hardly has been used to estimate commodity prices, although it may reconcile both statistics and econometrics via (1) the use of a stochastic approach and (2) the handling of ancillary variables related to the copper market. Another advantage of geostatistical techniques is the ability not only to forecast the copper price, but also to measure the uncertainty associated with it."

Jan 1, 2004

By Jonathan S. Jackson, Bayne B. McMillan, W. Joseph Schlitt

Various dump leach models have been developed by Kennecott, and these are reviewed with an eye toward production forecasting. Some of the models have been bated on first principles, utilizing the chemistry and physics of dump leaching. While providing considerable insight into the leaching process, these have proved to be too cumbersome for use in estimating production. Other models have been based on a declining leach rate for a single block of waste. These permit good short-term projections of solution grades and production, but are inflexible with regard to changes in mining parameters because the trends are based only on historical data. Therefore, a simple and flexible computer model has been developed to aid in leach production forecasting and to provide a tool for assessing the impact of different mining plans on leaching. This program, LEACH, is based on annualized blocks of waste; input parameters are described and examples of its use are given.

Jan 1, 1980

By Richard Thomas Newcomb

The trend towards proportionately rising volumes of surface mining through- out the world and especially in the United States has led some observers to predict that the future of underground mining is quite limited. Certainly, the simple extrapolation of current trends1 gives evidence of a compelling sort for the hypothesis that technological progress is proceeding at a faster pace in surface than in underground mining. This paper attempts to examine the basis for these predictions by searching the historical record on differential rates of productivity as these are observed in iron ore and coal mining. In recent years economists have discussed "technology gaps" among industries or segments of the same industry, by which they mean that mechanisms for invention and its diffusion are faulty or retarded in such a way that feasible cost-cutting innovations are not applied or developed, even though technicians regard them as practical.2

Jan 1, 1968

By J. L. Hoover

The goal of the drill bit consumption study was to develop an equation(s) based on various components that affect bit drill wear and use the equation(s) to estimate the consumption of bits during production drilling. Drill bit data from various geographic locations were compiled and used to develop linear regression equations using the Microsoft Excel Software. Multiple drill bit consumption equations were developed and statistical analysis was used to verify the accuracy of those equations. The equations will allow mining companies to more accurately forecast drill bit consumption when evaluating new mine properties. This capability becomes increasingly beneficial to forecasting as the cost of consumables increases.

Jan 1, 2012

By J. L. Hoover, P. W. Conrad, J. Downey, S. Parrow, S. Rosenthal

The goal of the drill bit consumption study was to develop an equation(s) based on various components that affect drill bit wear and use that equation(s) to estimate the consumption of bits during production drilling. Drill bit data from various geographic locations were compiled and used to develop linear regression equations using the Microsoft Excel software package. Multiple drill bit consumption equations were developed and statistical analysis was used to verify the accuracy of those equations. The equations will allow mining companies to more accurately forecast drill bit consumption when evaluating new mine properties. This capability becomes increasingly beneficial to forecasting as the cost of consumables increases.

Jan 1, 2012

By Otto E. Zwanzig

You may think long before this talk has been completed that the speaker is belaboring the obvious. Please let me put to rest here and now any doubt which you may have in this regard by assuring you that is precisely my intent, and for a very specific reason. We all profess to know and recognize the obvious, but I am impressed increasingly how often we forget or fail to act upon the obvious. Shortly after starting my first job upon graduation from college, I was asked by my boss to participate in a course on practical communications, particularly as applied to conveying proposals effectively to the client -- be he customer or company president. The concept or philosophy underlying this program was so simple and obvious that in my youthful brashness I saw only a gross waste by the company of e good, solid $1930 in compelling me to take the course. The sequel to this experience occurred about five yews ago when I was directing a 300-man marketing group. At that time I enrolled a dozen of my department heads, and subsequently about a hundred other personnel, in the contemporary version of that sane program. Why? -- because they all knew the obvious, but I could see how imperfectly they were implementing it. Truly, a wide chasm exists all too often in our beliefs on the one hand and our practices on the other.

Jan 1, 1962

Forecasting, particularly when applied to meaningful issues, is known irreverently as 'futurology'. There is quite a range of opinion ext.ant in the world when mineral resources are looked at. The opinions range from the doomsday view that there will be acute shortages of all essential commodities, to the optimistic outlook that new 'discoveries will prevent any possibility of shortages. The environment is, as yet, only studied locally and quite parochially; surprisingly there is little integration when considering the spatial atmosphere, the seas in depth and the earth's crust.

Jan 1, 1981

By C. Ozgen Karacan, William P. Diamond

In This Chapter [Measuring the gas content of coal Predicting gas emissions based on geologic and coal reservoir property data Determining the gas storage capacity of coalbeds and other gas-bearing strata Methane drainage borehole monitoring to forecast the remaining gas-in-place and the influence on mine emissions Forecasting gas emissions during mining as a function of mining parameters and Gas emission prediction based on numerical simulation] This chapter provides guidelines for determining the gas content of coalbeds, estimating the gas-in-place, and predicting gas flow and emissions before and during coal mining operations. The techniques are discussed briefly in the following sections. However, detailed information on the techniques is provided in the cited references. INTRODUCTION Coalbed methane, if not properly controlled in the underground mine environment, is a safety concern due to the potential risk for an explosion. This is a particular problem during longwall mining, where the high rate and volume of coal extraction can result in the release of large amounts of methane from the mined coalbed and other adjacent gas-bearing strata. The variability and potential hazards of these sometimes unexpectedly high gas flows provide the impetus to develop methods to predict methane emissions into the underground workplace. A forecast of the volume of gas that might be released during coal mining is helpful for designing ventilation systems and for implementing optimum methane drainage strategies to help mitigate expected gas emission problems. A complete assessment of the need for methane drainage prior to mine development generally requires both an empirical and a theoretical approach. If there are active mines in the general area with similar geologic conditions and coal characteristics, a review of gas problems in those mines provides an initial insight into the level of gas emissions to be expected at a new location. In addition, relatively simple methods exist to determine the in situ gas content (volume of gas per unit weight of coal) of the coalbeds in a particular mining area, as well as the gas-in-place (volume of gas in the coalbed(s) within a defined geographic area).

Jan 6, 2006

By C. Özgen Karacan

Gob gas ventholes (GGV) are used to control methane inflows into a longwall operation by capturing it within the overlying fractured strata before it enters the work environment. Thus, it is important to understand the effects of various factors, such as drilling parameters, location of borehole, applied vacuum by exhausters and mining/panel parameters in order to be able to evaluate the performance of GGVs and to predict their effectiveness in controlling methane emissions. However, a practical model for this purpose currently does not exist. In this paper, we analyzed the total gas flow rates and methane percentages from 10 GGVs located on three adjacent panels operated in Pittsburgh coalbed in Southwestern Pennsylvania section of Northern Appalachian basin. The ventholes were drilled from different surface elevations and were located at varying distances from the start-up ends of the panels and from the tailgate entries. Exhauster pressures, casing diameters, location of longwall face and mining rates and production data were also recorded. These data were incorporated into a multilayer-perceptron (MLP) type artificial neural network (ANN) to model venthole production. The results showed that the two-hidden layer model predicted total production and the methane content of the GGVs with more than 90% accuracy. The ANN model was further used to conduct sensitivity analyses about the mean of the input variables to determine the effect of each input variable on the predicted production performance of GGVs.

Jan 1, 2009

By W Zirima

A detailed, mine scale non-linear numerical model of Rosebery mine has been built for the purpose of simulating life-of-mine global deformations. The model was calibrated using observations of displacement and damage, and was then used to investigate the correlation between dissipated plastic energy (DPE) and seismic event occurrence. The study is unique because the seismic data was collected over a relatively short period using a temporary portable seismic system. It is the intent to undertake significantly more work, but the analysis of limited data shows that a very good, non-linear relation between DPE and event probability is present. The observed correlation is consistent with measurements from other mines where more data was available. With more data, the strength of the correlation will allow the DPE analysis to be used during the design and sequencing phase of planning to better design the mine to minimise seismic hazards.

Jan 1, 2008

By T. J. DeMull

The business of heap leaching requires accurate forecasting of metal production from the heaps. Business forecasts typically follow a format that project periodic (monthly, quarterly, or annual) product shipments based on anticipated operating results, e. g., tons of ore placed, grade of ore, and rate of leach extraction. Since revenue and cash flow are dependent on the metal production stream, forecasts of metal production are very important for project evaluation and business planning purposes. Nevertheless, production forecasts, particularly for new heap leach projects, have been prone to errors. The present paper identifies some of the pitfalls that would be encountered in preparing production forecasts for new heap leach operations and provides a checklist of considerations to assist in preparing a forecast. Also, the paper presents a case study of copper production forecasting used for the Sanchez Project, a heap leach operation located near Safford, Arizona, that is presently under development by AZCO Mining, Inc.

Jan 1, 1995

By A Vakili, F Harvey, H Greaves

Mine seismicity is one of the most difficult geotechnical risks to manage in seismically active mines. There are currently some established empirical and statistical methods that provide quantitative measures for seismic hazard assessment in operating mines. However, these methods are mostly suitable for quantifying the current or historical seismic hazard and often cannot be directly used to forecast the future hazards. Numerical modelling is the only analytical tool that can capture the level of complexities required for a meaningful analysis of mine seismicity and therefore to facilitate a reliable forecast of future hazards. However, there is currently no widely accepted and established guideline and methodology for analysing and forecasting mine seismicity using numerical modelling. This paper first provides a background on previous published studies on this subject and then outlines the key aspects that can affect the reliability of the forecasting for mine seismicity. These aspects include a) processing of historical seismic data, b) selection of suitable numerical modelling approach, c) Post-processing and interpretation of the model outputs. A case study is then presented for the Gwalia Deeps Mine where a new framework was developed to forecast future mine seismicity. High-quality seismic data for a period of five years was used for back-analysis and comparisons with the numerical modelling outputs. After development of the method, the future seismicity was forecast for the next 12 months and the actual seismicity was monitored against the forecast during this period. Results of this study shows promising potential for the proposed framework to be applied more routinely and at other mine sites. However, more validations are required at Gwalia Deeps mine as the mine proceeds to deeper levels. In addition, the method needs more improvements and should be tested and validated at other mining operations before it can be established as a proven method. CITATION:Vakili, A, Harvey, F and Greaves, H, 2018. Forecasting mine seismicity – towards a more established methodology, in Proceedings The Fourth Australasian Ground Control in Mining Conference (AusRock), pp 207–222 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 30, 2018

By J. Cygankiewicz

Efficient prevention of mine fires is impossible without predicting the self heating processes in the given geological and mining conditions. The respective forecasting method is presented in this paper based on the following assumptions: - factor deciding on fire hazard in the underground workings is the process of heating of coal from the primary rock temperature to the critical temperature when the heating rate growth rapidly - another important factor is the fire incubation time defined as time needed to achieve the critical temperature. This time is determined by balance of heat and mass in the heated coal - contact of crushed coal with oxygen in air cause some exothermic processes as : physical and chemical sorption of oxygen , oxidation reaction and evaporation of humidity Heated coal transfers its thermal energy to the environment by conductivity to the rocks and by convection to the flowing gases. The heating is possible if thermal energy generated from coal is greater then the share transferred to the environment. The paper presents the laboratory method of measurement of heat generation in adiabatic conditions. Also the mathematical model with examples of computation enabling to forecast the self heating process of crushed coal is presented.

Jan 1, 2003

By A. McQuillan, N. Bar

Geotechnical engineers are routinely tasked with advising suitable stand-off distances below highrisk sections of slopes in open-pit mines that are identified to have potential to deform or collapse. Accurate prediction of failed material runout can mean the difference between continuous safe mining and unwanted high-potential incidents that result in loss of production, equipment damage, injury, or loss of life. This paper updates previous empirical relationships presented by the authors for estimating the volume and runout distance of excavated slope failures, in an open-pit mine operation, using slope geometry as the primary predictor. Cases are sourced from varying slope geometries (fall heights up to 385 m, slope angles up to 80°) and a range of commodities (iron ore, coal, nickel, gold, copper, boron, and limestone), excavated in sedimentary, banded-sedimentary, epithermal, and copper-porphyry deposits, across all six inhabited continents. Analysis of these cases identified positive correlations between slope height and runout distance, and slope height and failed material volume. In general, negative correlations were identified between Fahrböschung angle and slope height, and Fahrböschung angle and failed material volume; however, significant scatter is observed in these datasets. A definitive relationship could not be derived comparing Fahrböschung angle with failed material runout. Slope angle was also found to be a poor indicator of runout. Of the parameters analysed, slope height (i.e., fall height) was found to be the simplest and best predictor of runout distance. This paper presents new charts for predicting failed material runout distance for rock slopes. Relationships are defined for structurally and rock-mass driven slope failure mechanisms at average, 75%, and 95% prediction intervals

Jul 10, 2024

By P. M. Solozhenkin, O. I. Ibragimova, I. P. Solozhenkin

Molecular models of complexes of poorly studied bismuth, gold, and arsenic mineral clusters and reagents were created for use in collector activity forecasting using Chem Bio 3D and ChemOffice2005, with optimization by MM2. The density functional theory approach was used to determine HOMO, LUMO, SOMO, and total energies, atomic charges, and s, p, d- populations for various compounds. The structure-based virtual screening (SBVS) and docking technique was proposed to reduce the vast number of compounds to a more manageable number for selection of potential flotation candidates. The prognosis of collector activity evaluation (PCAE) strategy was proposed as a consistent approach to estimate the interaction between a collector and a mineral cluster as the difference between the total energy and sum of cluster energy and collector energy to search the analogue of butyl xanthate. The negative relationship between PCAE and flotability was shown. The combinations of dialkylamino sulfhydryl collectors can be considered as prospective reagents for gold-bearing sulfide ore flotation. These results were confirmed by experimental data in ore flotation. The increase in recovery of gold and bismuth with the aid of a combination of reagents has been established and additional cyanidation of tailings has been avoided.

Jan 1, 2016

By Nick D. Rose

Outline ?Background ?History of inverse-velocity for failure prediction ?Methodolog ?Case Histories ?Three case examples of predicted slopefailure to actual date of occurrence ?One case example of mitigated slope failure using inverse-velocity to forecast failure time and schedule remedial measures ?Conclusions

May 1, 2006

By John L. Edwards, Anthony T. Iannacchione

There has been a persistent need to forecast roof falls so that miner’s exposure to hazardous underground environments can be minimized. Several monitoring techniques have been developed and are used today with varying levels of acceptance in the mining industry. This paper examines the potential for monitoring microseismic emissions activity as a means of forecasting roof falls. The use of this activity to forecast roof falls has drawn only limited attention, resulting in a lack of published field performance data. This deficiency is being partially addressed by analyzing data obtained during longwall mining at Moonee Colliery in 1998. The Moonee data base contains a wealth of information concerning roof fall forecast parameters and the seismic alarm criteria used to develop these forecasts. Four seismic alarm criteria were developed and used by Moonee with varying degrees of success. Roof falls were forecasted 73% of the time with average forecast times of 54 minutes. Ninety percent of the predicted roof falls had a warning time, i.e., the time between warning and roof fall event, of greater than 1 minute. The fraction of forecasted roof falls decayed logarithmically as a function of warning time, until only 20% of events were predicted more than 100 minutes prior to roof falls. False alarms occurred in 50% of the warnings. Many of the false alarms were quickly followed by a cessation in mining which could have temporarily halted the on-going failure process. If mining had continued immediately after the false alarms, a roof fall may have occurred soon after. The microseismic activity collected from Moonee Colliery demonstrates that techniques to forecast roof rock instabilities in underground mines are possible.