Search Documents

By M. D. Max, A. H. Johnson

INTRODUCTION Gas hydrates have considerable potential to be a major energy resource owing to their apparent abundance in Arctic regions and along continental margins throughout the world (Kvenvolden, 1988). Yet, the oil and gas industry has been slow to pursue this opportunity. The primary reasons for this are the large conventional reserve base for natural gas worldwide and the perception that gas hydrate will not be a viable resource for another twenty or thirty years. Gas hydrates are thus viewed as a potential resource for the distant future, but not a valid investment for the near term. This paper addresses both global gas markets and gas hydrate technology, and shows that the commercial development of gas hydrate could proceed rapidly enough to constitute a near-term energy resource. GLOBAL GAS MARKETS The proven worldwide reserves of conventional natural gas are truly enormous, totaling over 6,000 TCF according to BP (2004). Moreover, those reserves have nearly doubled during the past two decades and now represent 67 years of consumption at the current production rates of 80 TCF per year (Fig. 1). This reserve increase has occurred even as global production of natural gas has increased by 67% during the same two decades (Fig. 2). While declining conventional gas reserves are a concern in North America, especially in regions where established infrastructure exists to bring gas to consumers, large new discoveries continue to be made elsewhere in the world. Indeed, in many parts of the world (such as the Middle East and parts of West Africa), natural gas has been regarded as an essentially worthless byproduct of oil production or exists in stranded gas fields. Given this situation, pursuing unconventional gas resources that are inherently riskier exploration targets and more expensive to produce would appear to have little rationale from a business standpoint.

Jan 1, 2006

By Chee Theng

"Keep calm and carry on mining. That has long been the conventional wisdom in the mining industry, a largely cyclical one that has weathered roller-coaster booms and busts. But in the years from 2002 to 2016, an unprecedented steep rise in commodities prices that lasted a decade and then took a sharp turn downward had made it hard for gold and silver miners to stay the course.“The last 15 years highlighted some of the structural and inherent challenges that our industry has, from product price uncertainty to long lead times to the capital intensity of our business,” said Mitchell Krebs, president and chief executive officer of Coeur Mining, who was the luncheon speaker at the American Exploration & Mining Association’s 122nd Annual Meeting held Dec. 5-9, 2016, in Reno, NV.Looking back, Krebs said, “We were given this enormous gift of a commodities super cycle, and the industry kind of blew the opportunity.” While gold prices rose 319 percent and silver prices rose more than 200 percent over the 2002 to 2016 period, the XAU index of 30 gold and silver mining companies’ stock prices went up by only 20 percent.Entering 2016, precious-metals prices have made a comeback, with gold rallying strongly from a six-year low at the start of the year. This time, the industry is ready. Companies are leaner and meaner, with lower costs, reduced debt and an increased focus on higher grades and quality ounces. Although opportunities were missed in the past, the industry has got its act together and is now well positioned to take advantage of a price upswing and even to show profits when prices fall, as they did in August 2016, pushed down by a strong dollar."

Feb 1, 2017

By G. Lawrence, R. Pieters, A. Leung, T. Pedersen

The Main Zone and Waterline pit lakes at the Equity Silver Mine near Houston, BC (Canada) are the sites of a new 3-yr research program with three primary goals: 1) understanding controls on metal concentrations in the lakes; 2) using mesocosms to test a variety of remediation strategies; and 3) verifying and improving an existing coupled physical-geochemical model with the goal of improving predictions of pit lake water quality. Initial data from two summer surveys in the Main Zone pit lake reveal elevated dissolved metal concentrations (e.g. [Zn] as high as 800 µg/L) present in a two-meter-deep mixed layer, and elevated particulate metal concentrations towards the bottom of the water column. Hydroxide sludge, a byproduct of ARD treatment, is being discharged to the surface waters of the Main Zone pit lake. The sludge sinks rapidly to the lake bottom, leading to deep waters with elevated levels of dissolved O2 and total metals. By contrast, the deep waters of the proximal Waterline pit lake are mildly reducing, manifested by depletion of O2 and elevated levels of dissolved Fe. These reducing conditions have led to elevated levels of As (up to 1500 µg/L) in Waterline pit deep waters. The contrasting behavior of these two pit lakes, as well as the processes controlling metal concentrations in the lakes, will be discussed.

Jan 1, 2002

By Jon J. Indall

I. INTRODUCTION The challenge of moving the use of nuclear energy from military to civilian use was first issued by President Dwight Eisenhower in his December 8, 1953 “Atoms for Peace” speech delivered at the United Nations. Eisenhower stated: “The United States knows that if the fearful trend of atomic military build up can be reversed, this greatest of destructive forces can be developed into a great boon, for the benefit of all mankind. * * * * The more important responsibility of this Atomic Energy Agency would be to devise methods whereby this fissionable material would be allocated to serve the peaceful pursuits of mankind. Experts would be mobilized to apply atomic energy to the needs of agriculture, medicine, and other peaceful activities. A special purpose would be to provide abundant electrical energy in the power-starved areas of the world. In the 1950’s and 1960’s, the Atomic Energy Commission promoted the use of nuclear power as the answer to our nation’s energy problems. Nuclear power would provide energy too cheap to meter. The utility industry responded and numerous plants were planned with over one hundred constructed from the 1970’s to the 1990’s. Capital costs for nuclear power plants escalated due to permitting changes and public opposition, and the Three Mile Island incident caused new nuclear plant construction to cease. Today, we once again are experiencing a nuclear renaissance. Concerns over global warming and rapid projected increases in the demand for electricity have caused many nations to begin construction of new nuclear fleets. The price of uranium to fuel these reactors, which had dropped to an historical low of $7.10 in 2001, has surged to $56.00 as of October 2006. This paper will review some of the social, environmental, and government issues that are all playing a role in the resurgence of the nuclear fuel industry.

Jan 1, 2007

By C. Bazin

Grinding circuits are operated in the presence of disturbances due to ore changes and equipment malfunctions. One of the challenges faced by the operators is the detection of a disturbance, the identification of its origin and of the action to correct the problem. Hydrocyclones overloading, worn or partly plugged apexes of the units of a nest, surging and internal liner detachment may cause a loss of classification capacity and quality leading to a less efficient grinding operation. A dynamic simulator is used to assess rules for the diagnosis of hydrocyclone faults from the trends produced by sensors.

Jan 1, 2009

By B. Anderson, P. Churak, S. Dewar, A. Johnson, P. Eger

Although vegetation can be successfully established on fine taconite tailings, innovative approaches are needed to reclaim the coarse tailings used for dam construction. Through a series of cooperative projects with various government agencies and industries, EVTAC has been able to develop a unique closure plan. This plan will not only meet current reclamation standards, but also provide mitigation for a disturbed wetland and possibly create a tree plantation in the interior of the basin. By using waste products and exchanging materials, reclamation of the entire basin will be accomplised in a cost effective manner.

Jan 1, 2002

By Paul J. Ehret

With the passage of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), and the implementation of state permanent programs, underground coal mining operations are for the first time subject to government regulations regarding subsidence. These regulations now and in the future will directly affect the manner in which mining companies mine their coal. Since the promulgation of the original final regulations by OSM, numerous changes in those regulations have been made and many additional changes are pending in the near future. This paper will discuss state and federal approaches to regulating underground coal mines and examine issues surrounding future subsidence regulations.

Jan 1, 1986

By Robert D. Coale

This paper will describe the copper concentrate slurry pipeline and pumping system between the concentrator and the port at Bougainville Copper Ltd. The operations of Bougainville Copper Ltd. are located on the island of Bougainville in the South Pacific. Geographically, it is the northernmost island of the Solomon Group but, politically, it is part of Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea is a United Nations Trust territory administered by Australia, having recently been given self-government, with independence scheduled for December 1974. (Fig. 1). The island is approximately 130 miles long by 30 miles wide, with the Crown Prince mountain range forming a spine along its length. The mountains in place are over 8,000 feet high with the mine located on the western flank at an elevation of 2,200 feet. Exploration on Bougainville for copper by Conzinc Riotinto of Australia (CRA) began in 1963 and by 1968, through geophysical, geochemical and diamond drilling methods, an orebody containing nearly one billion tons of ore grading approximately 0.48% Cu. and sane gold had been outlined. Bougainville Copper Ltd., the company operating the mine, is 53.6% wined by CRA, 20% mined by the government of Papua New Guinea with the public Folding the remainder of the shares. The first copper concentrate was produced in early 1972, with production for the first full year, 1973 being:

Jan 1, 1974

By Douglas J. Lootens

Geologic mapping was undertaken in the Sierrita Mountains as part of a Doctoral program at the University of Arizona, Tucson. During the study, approximately 35 square miles was mapped in detail, with particular attention given to specific areas of great or significant structural complexity and their relation to mineralization in the vicinity. A combination, of field studies and photogeologic interpretation was used in order to define regional and local structural controls for disseminated copper-molybdenum mineralization in and adjacent to the study area. Gratitude is expressed to the faculty of the University of Arizona, Department of Geology for their assistance in this work and to Bear Creek Mining Company for making numerous reports and drill cores available for study.

Jan 1, 1965

By R. L. Grayson

In 2010, MSHA began holding hearings on a new coal mine respirable dust rule, which proposes a 1.0 mg/m3 standard, a separate 0.1 mg/m3 quartz standard, and the use of single-shift samples for compliance. Small mines largely comprise the ?hot spots? where dust diseases of the lungs increased dramatically over the past decade. This paper presents findings on the feasibility of small mines? compliance with the proposed new 1.0 mg/m3 standard. It gives probabilities of noncompliance by MSHA district, seam height, and selected ?hot spot? counties. Because silicosis and respirable quartz dust appear to be the primary issues related to a recent doubling of the prevalence of dust diseases of the lungs, multiple regression models for prediction of the average total quartz content of compliance samples are given. These findings have significant implications on the need for better dust control methods.

Jan 1, 2012

By Adrian Coombs, Paul Magowan, Derek Zoldy

Continued development and intensification are fuelling the urgent need for new trunk infrastructure within The Regional Municipality of York and throughout the Greater Toronto Area. Permitting of these projects is increasingly subject to public scrutiny to severely restrict dewatering through construction technologies and the requirement for a comprehensive and effective Environmental Management Plan. Three current projects: one on the York Durham Sewage System and two in the City of Toronto 1.Conventional Design, Tender, Award: 4,150m (13,600 ft.) 2.7m (9 ft.) finished interior diameter soft ground tunnel for York Region’s YDSS Interceptor Trunk Sewer 2.Negotiated Contract: 3,800m (12,500 ft.) 3.5m diameter (11.5 ft.) rock tunnels for Enwave’s environmentally sustainable and innovative chilled water system in downtown Toronto 3.Conventional Design, Tender, Award: 2,200m (7,200 ft.) 3.3m diameter (10.8 ft.) rock tunnel for reinforcement of Hydro One’s primary hydro feed in the downtown core of Toronto These projects exemplify issues such as: EPB tunnel and sealed shaft technologies Substantial permitting requirements associated with dewatering Mitigation of rock creep Congested downtown rights-of-way Deep shafts and confined working compounds Unique scheduling and cost benefits when Owner, Contractor and Consultant can work together cooperatively.

Jan 1, 2007

Market confidence is on the rise and industry leaders turning toward the vast and diverse region of Latin America are faced with abundant, yet daunting, opportunity. From the iron orebodies of Brazil to the renowned copper mines of northern Chile, drilling teams in Latin America are often faced with abrasive, broken ground. These types of ground conditions tear up coring bits rapidly, making it extremely difficult for even the most seasoned drilling teams to maintain effective productivity. The drilling challenges faced in this rich and opportune region are being met today by advanced coring technology, bringing with it the potential for increased productivity in Latin American mineral exploration.

Jan 3, 2010

The National Mining Hall of Fame will hold its 13thAnnual Induction Banquet during MINExpo International 2000 in Las Vegas, NV. The gala black-tie (optional) event will honor eight legendary leaders of the mining industry. The event will take place at the Las Vegas Hilton Hotel on Sunday, Oct. 8. The induction ceremonies will salute mining greats elected by the board of governors from a list of nominees submitted by mining industry partners and the public. The members of the Class of 2000 will join 151 other inductees enshrined in the Mining Hall of Fame in Leadville, CO. The evening will begin at 6 pm with a cash bar reception followed by the banquet and program at 7 pm. Keynoting the banquet program will be Harrison (Jack) Schmitt. He was the geologist/astronaut of the Apollo 17 mission to the moon in 1972 (see related story on page 26). And he is the only scientist to “kick rocks on the moon.” Schmitt is also a member of the Mining Hall’s board of governors. Schmitt was also the keynote speaker at the First Annual Induction Banquet in Denver, CO in 1988.

Jan 1, 2000

By Sotiris Psomas, Colin M. Eddie

"Steel Fibre Reinforced Concrete (SFRC) Segmental Tunnel Linings have successfully been used for over 20 years in the UK and have been adopted in a number of high profile projects such as High Speed 1, Crossrail, Thames Tideway, as well as High Speed 2. Tunnel linings and especially SFRC design are not covered in the Eurocodes. This shortage of SFRC tunnel design rules seems to be partially addressed by several international publications. However, in the UK, the ‘design-assisted by testing’ (DAT) approach has also been adopted. The Paper discusses the UK’s best design practice and focuses on the DAT methodology as applied in the case of the 6.9km (4.3miles), 7.8m (25.6 feet) ID Lining for the £635million Lee Tunnel Project. The design approach, the full scale testing at the Building Research Establishment (BRE), and the construction innovations are presented. This experience will be transferred to the £4billion Thames Tideway Tunnel.INTRODUCTIONSteel Fibre Reinforced Concrete (SFRC) has been used for Tunnel segments for more than 20 years. The first application of SFRC in the UK was for the Heathrow Baggage tunnel (1994). Since then significant size tunnels have been designed and constructed, such as the Jubilee Line (1999) High Speed 1 (CTRL, 2006), Crossrail (2014), Lee Tunnel (2014) and the scheduled 25km Thames Tideway (‘Super Sewer’) and High Speed 2 rail tunnels. However one the main obstacles in achieving streamlined design and improving efficiency are the lack of appropriate design guidelines for SFRC tunnel segments. This issue will – to some extent – be addressed by a number of current documents on tunnel FRC design either being produced by BSi (PAS8810, expected 2016), ACI (544.R) and ITAtech (Design Guideline PCFRC, 2015) in an effort to advance the design of SFRC and take into consideration the recent developments in Steel and Macro-Synthetic FRC technology."

Jan 1, 2016

By C. K. Kocsis, S. Hardcastle

Mine ventilation, requires electricity to operate the fans and fossil fuel for heating. Typically, this accounts for approximately 40% of the overall underground energy consumption. This is considerable, and one of the major causes of this expense is that most mine ventilation systems are designed for the "worst-case-scenario" with respect to ventilation demand, which is commonly dictated by diesel equipment usage. Once designed, mines tend to operate their ventilation system at this peak level despite their exceeding day-to-day development and production needs due to lack of appropriate ventilation controls. In underground metal mines, TeleminingTM, which includes the tele-remote operation of mobile development and production equipment from surface, will change the mine design criteria including its support infrastructure such as the ventilation system. With the removal of machine operators to surface control rooms, conventional ventilation systems designed to dilute and remove pollutants can become redundant. Depending on the ultimate need for ventilation, its cost in automated mines with tele-remote equipment operated from surface will be lower than the cost of ventilation in conventional mines. These cost savings, which could be significant, would not only come from the ability to reduce the amount of ventilation in the mine, but also through the capacity to automate its distribution. This paper provides an indication of the new airflow requirements in stopes and dead-end developments for the tele-remote and automated mining processes based on climatic modelling. Furthermore, this paper makes a cost benefit analysis by comparing the ventilation system operating cost of a conventional underground metal mine based on the mobile diesel powered equipment design criteria with the newly redesigned ventilation system operating cost of an automated mine based on the "heat management" design criteria.

Jan 1, 2002

By Garry Keizer

The Cortez gold mine is located in Lander County, NR, about 130 km (80 miles) southwest of Elko. Cortez Gold Mines (CGM) is a joint venture between Placer Dome US Inc. (60% operator) and Kennecott Corp. (40%). The claims that supply oxide and refractory ore feed to the Cortez milling facility are located in both Lander and Eureka counties. These include the Cortez and Horse Canyon deposits, all operated by the joint venture. Other deposits outside the CGM claim area include Fire Creek, Buckhorn, Gold Bar and Tonkin Springs. These deposits all occur along the Battle Mountain-Eureka Trend. History Mining in the Cortez district began in 1862 with the discovery of high-grade silver ores. Grades in the hundreds of ounces per ton occurred in an area 7 km (4.5 miles) southeast of the current CGM mill site. Underground mining through the Garrison and Arctic tunnels provided the bulk of the ore production between 1864 and 1895. To a lesser extent, the Mill Canyon area also supplied ore until 1930.

Jan 1, 1993

By Gordon Miner

GENERAL DESCRIPTION At the Star mine, Hecla Mining Co., located in Burke, Shoshone County, ID, the mining method is horizontal slicing (timbered or untimbered) cut-and-fill using hydraulic sand backfill. Back stoping as well as breast stoping is used; see Fig. 1. The annual produc¬tion from all cut-and-fill mining is 259 816 t (286,400 st). The average depth ranges from 366 to 2408 m (1200 to 7900 ft). A majority of the tonnage comes from an average depth of 2240 m (7350 ft). Average travel time to the stope is 1 hr. GENERAL ORE BODY REQUIREMENTS AND LIMITATIONS Size and Ground Conditions The ore body is 610 to 1219 m (2000 to 4000 ft) along the strike and 2408 m (7900 ft) on the dip, with an average vein width of 2.6 m (8.5 ft). The dip is essentially vertical. The ore body is heavily sheared and broken on the main fault structures; it is more competent on the wall veins but everywhere subject to rock bursting at depth. The hanging and footwalls are strongly fractured on the main fault structures, again more competent but still fractured on the wall veins. All host rock is Revett quartzite. Value and Production Requirements The ore value is $56 per ton. Production require¬ments are 1089 t/ d (1200 stpd), five days per week. Why Cut-and-Fill? The slusher extraction method is the most satisfac¬tory and practical for narrow vertical veins with sheared walls. The method must be quite selective to be com¬mercial. The veins are too narrow for rubber-tired ex¬traction and the grade is not high enough to make resuing practical. DETAILED DESCRIPTION Development Access to the main shaft is by the 3.2-km (2-mile) main haulage tunnel. The level intervals in the vertical timbered shafts are 61 m (200 ft). Vein development is by crosscut and laterals located 30.5 m (100 ft) into the vein wall. Vein crosscuts are on ±61 m (200 ft) centers. Access to the vein is by raises carried up with the stope. The raises are equipped with four wood¬cribbed chutes (two orepasses reinforced with angle irons, one manway, and one timber slide, Figs. 2-6). The initial cut is located 6.7 m (22 ft) above the main level (Fig. 1). Stoping Cycle Detail Sampling: Grab samples are taken from the mine cars. Channel sampling of the faces and backs is done when necessary. Drilling: For stope drilling, Ingersoll-Rand 300M percussion drills are used, with Ingersoll-Rand 300M and Gardner-Denver RB83M stopers, used for back stoping. Breasting down is done with Gardner-Denver S83FM jacklegs. The back stoping rounds are 0.9 to 1.8 m (3 to 6 ft) and the breast stoping rounds 1.5 to 3m (5 to 10 ft). Blasting: For stope blasting DuPont Tovex 100 watergel with fuses and igniter cord is used primarily. Approximately 60% of the blasting is done with am¬monium nitrate-fuel oil (ANFO). For development headings and shaft sinking, DuPont Drivex watergel with Ensign Bickford Nonel Primadet primers is is used. Mucking: Broken ore is removed entirely by slusher in the stopes. These are mostly 3.7-7.5-kW (5-10-hp) Ingersoll-Rand air-powered or 7.5-37.3-kW (10-50-hp) Ingersoll-Rand electric-powered. In the horizontal de¬velopment headings Eimco 12B and 21 and Atlas Copco LM-56 overshot mucking machines and a 0.76 (1 cu yd) hydroelectric Wagner HST-1 LHD (load-haul-dump) unit are used. Rockway for Extraction: The cribbed chutes (Fig. 7) are nearly vertical and hexagonal in shape and are made of spaced 152 x 203-mm (6 x 8-in.) timber, reinforced with varying weights and sizes of angle iron, depending on wear requirements. Rectangular cribbed chutes are used where ground pressure is not a problem. Cribbing is added in 2.4 or 3-m (8 or 10-ft) extensions accord¬ing to the floor height (whether timbered or untimbered). See Figs. 8 and 9. Backfilling: Backfilling is done with hydraulic sand consisting of classified mill tailings at 65% solids. The fill contains approximately 20% 325-mesh fines. The tailings are pumped 3353 m (11,000 ft) at 50-55% solids 22.7 dry t/h (25 dry stph) with a duplex piston pump. Cycloning increases the tailings density to 65% solids. Fill storage is in a 998-dry-t (1100 dry st) agi

Jan 1, 1982

The MineSight Schedule Optimizer (MSSO) is a new production scheduling tool developed by Mintec, Inc. using mixed integer linear programming (MILP) techniques. This tool was developed to solve the short- and medium-term schedule problems for surface and underground mining operations that involve multiple mining areas, multiple processes, multiple destinations and blending requirements. MSSO finds the optimum schedule in each period that achieves the objective while satisfying comprehensive product quality and quantity requirements as well as physical and technical constraints. Using the MineSight Planning Database (MSPD) as a central data hub, MSSO seamlessly works with MineSight 3-D (MS3D) block models and third-party data, MineSight Interactive Planner (MSIP), MineSight Haulage (MSHaulage) and MineSight Activity Planner (MSAP) to prepare data, formulate MILP models, calculate, report, fine-tune, save and visualize schedules. This paper presents the features and capabilities of MSSO. A case study is also given to demonstrate the applications of this new tool.

Jan 1, 2009

By A. Anani

The need to optimize surface mining operations has led to the use of discrete event simulation (DES) modeling of truck-shovel systems. Often, these models assume truck cycle times are independent and identically distributed (iid) random variables, although, with significant bunching on the haul routes, this may not be valid. The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to (i) account for truck bunching due to slow trucks; and (ii) test for cycle time dependence (i.e. whether truck cycle time data is iid or not). We built a DES model that accounts for bunching due to a slow truck(s) and used the cycle times as data for further analysis. We then tested for cycle time dependence using Pearson correlation coefficients. The results show significant correlation of truck cycle times for different number slow trucks, with variable speeds. Assuming iid in modeling results in over-estimation of productivity and the uncertainty surrounding it. The over-estimation of uncertainty is pronounced when the relative difference in truck speed increases. The confidence interval of the means of truck loads/shift decreases with increasing number of slow operators. This work extends the usefulness of DES in truck-shovel applications.

Feb 27, 2013

By M. Lonoff

G. Campbell The paper by M. Lonoff looks at the importance of byproduct prices on copper production. The paper develops several interesting points on this topic, but there are some points in the theoretical discussion that could use further development. A couple of these theoretical topics will be considered here using the paper's framework of assumptions without concern about how realistic the assumptions are for the copper industry. Lonoff's theoretical model is based on a static, homogenous world where all copper/byproduct deposits are identical, and these deposits are the main source of these metals. Due to the importance of the byproducts to the production decision, the term coproducts will be substituted for the term byproducts to reflect more accurately this condition. The conclusion is drawn that a rise in coproduct prices necessitates a decrease in copper prices because copper production is increased as a consequence of increased coproduct production. The observation that real world behavior does not always follow this pattern is dismissed as "speculation." However, it can be easily shown that within this simple framework market forces might create the observed behavior. The key question to be answered is what causes coproduct prices to rise. Three possible cases will be used as illustrations. The first case is the one implicity assumed by Lonoff. Here, the demand for coproducts increases at all prices (an outward parallel shift of the demand curve) with the demand for copper remaining constant. As reported in the paper, the results are higher coproduct prices, an increase in coproduct production, and lower copper prices due to the resulting increase in copper production. The second case is when the supply of coproducts are constrained-leading to higher market prices. Copper production, as required by the simple model, is also reduced which Reply by M. Lonoff Campbell's comments give me an opportunity to clarify a few points in "Copper and Its Byproducts." That paper examined the affect of byproducts on the copper market and considered the relative riskiness of multi-metal deposits from an investment standpoint. That brief note made no attempt to be exhaustive. Nevertheless, Campbell's comments miss the point of the paper and necessitate a response. My "theoretical model" was static and I freely conceded after introducing the assumption of identical deposits that "none of the assumptions hold." These simplifying assumptions allowed me to bound the possible effects of higher byproduct prices on the copper price by assuming identical deposits and computing average price effects. I took great pains to subsequently explain that since deposits are not identical the identity of the marginal deposit might change due to byproduct price changes. In this case, average price affects will overstate the affect of byproducts on copper prices. According to Campbell, I dismiss as speculation any "real world behavior that does not always follow this pattern" (of metals prices moving in opposite directions). In the byproducts paper I noted that gold, copper, and silver price movements often parallel each other on an intra-day or day-to-day basis. Such movements are largely due to market anticipation of or reaction to changes in interest rates that affect carrying costs of metals stocks. Other movements may be due to anticipated changes in available supply or physical requirements. I loosely grouped these effects as speculative. To distinguish this statement from the main thrust of the paper, I contined "In the long run if gold and silver prices remain high the equilibrium copper price will be lower." The paper set out long run equilibrium conditions rather than attempting to explain price movements on a daily basis or on a year-to-year basis.

Jan 11, 1983