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Various aspects of judgment and decision-making are key themes in this book. The model presented here serves as a loose structure for the chapters that follow this one. The notion of a model is introduced because growing research interest in the subjective aspects of group and individual behavior has led to a debate over whether judgment is a skill that can be understood scientifically. A related point of contention is whether such an understanding could lead to the development of methods for estimating people's ability to make good decisions during an emergency. There is some literature that supports the potential usefulness of this approach. However, little agreement seems to have been reached on how to define and operationalize even those basic concepts necessary to assess the soundness of decisions from within their environmental and group contexts [Jensen and Benel 1977; Godden and Baddeley 1979; Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982; Brecke 1982; Stone et al. 1985]. A look at the real-world process is clearly needed. The need to attempt a better understanding of judgment and decision-making properties stems from those occasions in the existence of an organization when there is a lot at stake. The process of decision-making (which is part of the exercise of judgment) has been analyzed in situations such as corporate takeovers [Janis and Mann1977], military combat [Begland1979], clinical emergencies [Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982], and aviation events [Billings and Reynard1984]. The fundamental assumption of these analyses is that, while there are untold successes, there are also notable numbers of failures resulting from decisions that can be ascribed to one or more errors in judgment. From a cognitive perspective, any person engaged in decision-making (either alone or in a group) is actively involved in a process characterized by certain elements. These were mentioned in chapter 1, but are reiterated briefly at this point: (1) detection of a problem, (2) definition or diagnosis, (3) consideration of available options, (4) choice of what is perceived as the best option given recognized needs, and (5) execution of the choice based on what has transpired [Flathers et al. 1982; Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982]. At any moment in this process, there are factors at play that have a large impact on one's ability to solve complex problems in a limited time: (1) an internal state [Hedge and Lawson 1979] is the sum of a person's psychomotor skills, knowledge, attitudes, etc.; (2) uncertainty [Brecke 1982] is caused by faulty or incomplete information received from the external environment; (3) stress [Biggs 1968; Jensen and Benel 1977] is generated both by the problem at hand and any background problem that may exist; and (4) complexity, as it is used here, refers to the number of elements involved that must be attended to. These variables are depicted in figure 5.1, and their relationship to each other and to an outcome is indicated. This schema is designed to suggest interaction, because while the judgment and decision-making process may be conceptualized as discrete stages, experience tells us that this is not the way people function in real-world situations.

Jan 1, 2000

By M. H. Marvin

This report presents the results of a program to develop backfilling techniques to mitigate undesirable effects of hydraulic borehole uranium mining. Large underground cavities, formed during the borehole mining process, can be backfilled to prevent ground subsidence and to allow mining of adjacent uraniferous sandstone. Three backfilling techniques were tested in the laboratory and in the field: bulk dumping of slurry into the borehole from ground level, slurry injection under water, and slurry injection above the cavity water level. These techniques were tested with sand and with sand and one percent cement (by weight) mixtures. The project was accomplished in four tasks: equipment preparation and transport, mining operation to generate a full-sized cavity, backfilling operation, and assessment through core samples and subsidence checks. The concentrations of cement mixed with sand proved to be inadequate to bond the sand. Bulk dumping resulted in a 30-degree angle-of-repose, much too steep to completely fill the cavity. Both slurry injection techniques filled the cavity satisfactorily. However, underwater injection is the recommended backfilling technique because the borehole water level does not need to be pumped down during backfilling. The borehole itself was filled by bulk dumping of slurry. In conclusion, backfilling of borehole mining cavities is entirely feasible, and the preferred method is slurry injection under water.

Jan 1, 1979

By J. J. Shields

With the increased use of mechanized equipment in mining bituminous coal, production panels are mined out rapidly. To keep current with the rapid completion of production panels, development work must be speeded up also. Although the same type of equipment usually is employed in development as in production places in the same mine, past output per man for development usually was less than from production panels. A study of development practices in 14 mines reveals a tendency toward equalization of the output per man between development and production.

Jan 1, 1957

By Mildred Nadler, Alvin Kaufman

To aid industry and Government in planning water developments the Bureau of Mines in 1963 canvassed mineral producers to determine water use in 1962. Water use by the mineral industry comprises only 2 percent of the water withdrawn by industry as a whole. The major water-using mineral industries are natural gas processing, phosphate rock, sand and gravel, and iron ore. Analysis indicated the following conclusions: 1. Total water use and new water intake is dependent on the quantity of material processed and the process water requirements of the particular indus- try or commodity. 2. Recirculation is dependent on the processing requirements of a par- ticular commodity, the manner in which the water is used, cooling and condens- ing requirements in certain large industries, the quality of new water intake, and the need to treat new and discharged water. 3. Consumed water is dependent on the quantity of water recirculated, the temperature and humidity in the area, and the proportion of water used for cooling and condensing. 4. A threefold increase in water use by the mineral industry by 1985 is forecast.

May 1, 1965

By Irving Wender

This report describes Bureau of Mines experiments and reviews the work of others on the exposure of coal and coal-derived products to gamma rays and some other types of radiation. Results are presented on tests of three bituminous coals and a lignite that had been pulverized to minus 200-mesh particles and exposed to 1,000 megaroentgens of gamma irradiation from spent-fuel elements of a nuclear reactor. Of about 20 chemical and physical tests in Bureau work, only mass spectrometry of gases evolved during vacuum pyrolysis of the coals to 450° C gave results indicating differences in the irradiated and unirradiated samples. Mass-spectral distribution curves for CO and CO2 evolution showed fewer irregularities (reversals of curvature) for irradiated coals; thus, mass spectrometry appears to be the most sensitive method for determining radio-induced changes in coal. It is concluded that coal is not significantly altered by gamma irradiation owing to the resistivity of its highly condensed ring structure. High-level gamma irradiation, therefore, is unlikely to prove advantageous in coal processing and utilization. Specially treated coals, because of resistivity of coal to radiation damage, may be useful as an absorbent in processing radioactive wastes.

Jan 1, 1968

By Shail J. Butani

In 1986, the Bureau of Mines conducted a probability sample survey, Mining Industry Population Survey, to measure such employee characteristics as occupation; principal equipment operated; work location at the mine; present job, present company, and total mining experience; job-related training during the last 2 yr; age; sex; race; and education. The population estimates are necessary to properly analyze the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) injury (includes illness and fatality data) statistics; that is, to compare and contrast injury rates for various subpopulations in order to identify those groups that are exhibiting higher than average injury rates. This report uses the survey's results to characterize the U.S. coal mining workforce from March through September 1986. A companion report, Information Circular (IC) 9193, "Characterization of the 1935 Metal and Nonmetal Mining Workforce:' provides similar information for the U.S metal and nonmetal mining industry.

Jan 1, 1988

By S. F. Mauser

This report describes the study of factors which affect medium voltage (661 - 1000 volts) trailing cable splices used in underground coal mines. Improvements in quality, dependability, and design of splice kits and shop splices are presented in the study results and recommended guidelines and regulations. Recommended research programs are included which describe approaches for development of the recommended guidelines and regulations for medium voltage trailing cable splices. The basis for the conclusions and recommendations presented in this report is included in three appendices which describe a survey, splice examination, and general requirements development prepared during the progress of this study.

Jan 1, 1977

By Parviz F. Rad

The increased use of tunnel boring machines (TBM) has stimulated laboratory research to optimize the cutting parameters of these machines with the objective of increasing machine efficiency and penetration rate. Laboratory-scale rock cutting experiments have succeeded in identifying many of the important parameters involved in rock-cutter interaction. Although scaling factors may be required to apply the results directly, the concepts developed can be used qualitatively as design guidelines for boring machines. The Bureau of Mines Twin Cities Mining Research Center has recently developed a large-scale rock cutting device (RCD) that will simulate many of the operating parameters of the tunnel boring machines in the laboratory under a controlled environment. The results of the experiments with this device will be directly applicable to the design of TBM's.

Jan 1, 1973

By C. H. Riggs

This petroleum-engineering report of the Atlanta oil field in BO them Arkansas reviews reservoir conditions and pressure-production history of one of the important Smackover limestone fields in southern Arkansas. The study of the field was made and the report prepared to aid operators in this and similar fields to increase the efficiency of recovery through the application of better engineering practices. A similar study of the Magnolia field in Arkansas by Carpenter and Schroeder was the first of these reports prepared under a joint agreement between the Arkansas Oil and Can Commission and the Bureau of Mines. The increasing demands for petroleum and its products and the steadily increasing cost of discovering and developing oil field; emphasize the importance of conserving known reserves of oil and gas. In recent years vast improvements have been made in the technique of oil recovery, both by better utilization of the natural energy stored in the reservoir and by improved methods of applying external energy to the reservoir system. This report may aid in oil conservation by careful evaluation of the several factors that did or did not contribute the greater recovery in the Atlanta field and by suggesting improvements in production methods and applications.

Jan 1, 1949

By G. R. Hopkins, E. M. SEELEY

The number of natural-gasoline plants has shown a consistent decline in recent years, but the total capacity has increased steadily. The number of completed plants, as determined by a survey as of January 1, 1932, amounted to 959. Previous surveys of January 1, 1928 and 1930 showed 1,155 and 1,035 plants, respectively. Of the total plants on January 1, 1932, 859 were operating and 100 were shut down, compared with 999 operating and 36 shut down on January 1, 1930. The material gain in the number of inoperative plants in the last two years was probably due to the severe decline in prices of 1931. The low prices of 1931, which were approximately 40 per cent below 1930, made it virtually impossible for the majority of the independent plants, or plants not owned by a large integrated company, to operate at a profit. Accordingly, the majority of the plants removed from the list in 1930 and 1931 were owned by companies which were engaged solely in the manufacture of natural gasoline. The total daily capacity of the plants on January 1, 1932, amounted to 11,387,000 gallons, an increase of 871,000 gallons, or 8 per cent, in the two years 1930 and 1931. That the total capacity of the plants has increased while the number of plants has declined is due to the fact that nearly all the plants constructed in the last five years have been large plants. During 1931 the average total daily capacity of the operating plants was approximately 10,600,000 gallons, while the average daily production amounted to 4,944,000 gallons. This indicates that the plants operated during 1931 at 47 per cent of their capacity, compared with 58 per cent in 1930 and 61 per cent in 1929. Although more plants have been dismantled in Oklahoma in recent years than in any other State, it continues to rank first in number of plants. On January 1, 1932, there were 238 plants in Oklahoma, compared with 145 plants

Jun 1, 1932

By L. H. ADAMS, C. N. HASKINS, J. K. CLEMENT

In the course of its investigations of the fuel resources in the United States and of the methods by which these resources could be utilized with greatest efficiency, the United States Geological Survey tested a great variety of coals and lignites as gas-producer fuel. Early in these testa it was found that many factors controlling the formation of gas in the generating chamber of the producer and, consequently, having a direct bearing on the management of producer-gas plants, were not as well understood as they should be. The Geological Survey therefore took up a detailed investigation of the chemical and physical processes that take place in the producer, keeping in view not only the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the producer as a source of energy, and the ensuing benefits to the public of cheaper power and greater utilization of low-grade fuels, but also the application of the results to the problems of boiler-furnace operations. - The Bureau of Mines, to which the testing and analyzing of fuels as carried on by the United States Geological Survey has been transferred, is continuing producer-gas investigations at the testing station at Pittsburg, Pa. Results of the gas-producer tests a made at the coal-testing plant erected at St. Louis, Mo., and of a study of some of the problems° that came up in the tests have been published by the Geological Survey. Results of the tests made at Norfolk, Va., and Pittsburg, Pa., and of further studies of particular problems, will be published by the Bureau of Mines. In the gas producer solid fuel is transformed into more readily combustible gaseous fuel. The transformation is relatively slow and consists of several processes: 1. The distillation of the volatile hydrocarbons from the freshly fired fuel at relatively low temperatures. 2. The combustion of the fuel by its combining with the oxygen of the air forming carbon dioxide (COO. 3. The formation of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen (11 3), the essential constituents of producer gas, in accordance with the equations:

Jan 1, 1911

By L. A. Stinnett

An investigation of hazardous surface openings of abandoned and inactive underground mines in the Black Hills area of South Dakota has revealed: (1) tracing legal ownership of mineral claims via county courthouses is confusing, complex, and oftentimes misleading, (2 ) in general, the selected mine openings in this investigation are to be considered relatively high in risks and hazard potential which poses a threat to the general public, (3) mine closure procedures and designs can generally be categorically implemented depending on the overall situation of the particular mine opening with subsequent unit costs' estimates, (4) few preventive state or federal legal measures exist to date concerning mine closures, and (5) liability damages relating to mine opening accidents usually involve expensive and complex common law cases.

Jan 1, 1979

By W. W. Adams

Two important facts stand out as features of the metal- and nonmetal-mining4 industry of the United States in 1941 as compared with 1940: First, the number of employees and man-days of employment increased; second, accident-frequency rates, both fatal and nonfatal, decreased. Reports from mining companies to the Bureau of Mines covering underground, open-pit, and surface operations for 1941 re¬vealed the largest number of men employed since 1926 and the largest number of man-days worked since 1929. The combined fatal and non¬fatal accident-frequency rate for 1941, calculated on a basis of one mil¬lion man-hours of exposure to hazard, was (except for 1931 and 1932) the lowest since 1911, the earliest year for which figures are available. During this 31-year period, only 1938 and 1939 showed lower fatality rates, and only 1931 and 1932 had lower nonfatal-injury rates. Operating companies reported that 9,620 mines were active during all or some part of the year. These employed 125,290 men, an increase of more than 4 percent over 1940. The total volume of work performed at all mines, measured in terms of man-shifts, increased to nearly 32 million, a gain of 10 percent; man-hours of employment rose to almost 254 million, an increase of 10 percent over the 231 million man-hours worked in the previous year. The year's operations resulted in an average work-year of 255 days per man, an increase of 13 days per employee over the average working time in 1940. Although the 8-hour day prevails generally at most mines, the industry as a whole averaged 7.94 hours per shift, as in 1940.

Jan 1, 1944

By Davis E. Traut

TiC14, AIC13, and VC14 were coreduced simultaneously via a Kroll-type magnesium reduction to form an alloy sponge as part of a research effort by the Bureau of Mines to produce titanium alloy powder. Reduction tem-peratures of 750°, 850°, and 950° C, a range of chloride feed rates from 34 to 152 Ib/(ft2·h), and crucible diameters of 7-3/4 and 10-1/4 in were tested. Microprobe analyses using a 40-um-diam spot showed no effect on alloy microhomogeneity (distribution of Al and V in the Ti, considered critical as a powder property), due to changes in process variables within these ranges. Statistical analysis of these data for alloy sponge indicated greater variation in the chemical composition (AI and V) than that found in commercial Ti-6Al-4V plate or Plasma Rotating Electrode Process (PREP) powder. Therefore, a one-step approach to pow-der, such as grinding the Ti alloy sponge, would not produce a powder product of acceptable chemical homogeneity. An approach that homoge-nized the sponge, such as with a melting step, would produce an accept-able powder product with respect to chemical homogeneity.

Jan 1, 1987

By E. G. King

This publication presents original thermal data for a typical variety of perlite and supplies basic information for use in computing energy requirements in processes for expanding perlite. Perlite has been defined by Raiston 4/ as any silicious lava containing dissolved water in sufficient amount to errand into bubbles when the material is quickly heated to a suitable point in the softening range." The uses of expanded perlite in) the construction and ceramic industries have been discussed by Ralston 4/ and King. 5/ The work described here had a dual purpose: (1) It was desired to ascertain quantitatively, using a typical variety of perlite, just how firmly the contained water is held, and (2) it was desired to obtain basic thermal data sufficient for energy-requirement calculations in processes for expanding perlite.

Jan 1, 1948

By F. P. Haver

The Bureau of Mines has investigated the electrochemical reduction of lead chloride as a method for producing lead without the pollution problems associated with smelting. It was determined that high-purity metal (>99.9 pct Pb) could be obtained, using PbC12 prepared by ferric chloride leaching of galena concentrate: PbS + 2FeCl3?PbCl2 + 2FeC12 + S°. Optimum results in small-scale electrolytic tests were achieved with a bath consisting of 40 to 70 wt-pct PbCl2 dissolved in KC1-LiCl eutectic, an operating temperature of 450° C, a current density of 2.5 amp/in2, and an electrode spacing of 0.5 inch. In large-scale tests made to develop a cell design for commercial application, the optimum electrode arrangement proved to be a bipolar configuration with horizontal plates. This gave a current efficiency of 86 pct with an energy requirement of 0.52 kwhr/lb lead. To determine the effect of impurity buildup in the bath, 1,200 lb of PbC12 prepared by ferric chloride leaching of galena concentrate was electrolyzed over a period of 2 months. Little deterioration of the metal quality occurred in that time; all of the lead produced had a purity equal to or better than corroding grade (>99.94 pct Pb).

Jan 1, 1976

By A. C. Fieldner, G. W. Jones

Tests were made at the Government Fuel Yard , operated at Washington , D. C. by the Bureau of Mines , Department of the Interior , in order to determine and improve the adjustment of the carburetors on the trucks used for transporting coal from the Fuel Yard to the different Government buildings in Washington . The tests were made possible through the hearty cooperation of G , S. Pope , engineer in charge of the Fuel Yard . Joseph Burrows and A. E. Foote of the garage department assisted during all the tests and supplied information on the mileage obtained by the trucks for the months preceding and succeding the time the tests were made . The Mack trucks used range in capacity from 2-1/2 to 7-1/2 ttoonnss .. The majority of the carburetors were Stromberg G- 3 type , as shown in Table 2. During the winter months , when the demand for coal is heavy , from 30 to 35 trucks are used . At the time the tests were made , only about ten of the trucks were in daily use , owing to the small demand for coal during the summer months , and scarcity due to labor conditions . Samples of the exhaust gas were taken on the trucks kept in service for summer hauling in order to determine the carburetor adjustment as used . Changes were then made to a more economical adjustment wherever possible , without sacrificing flexibility of operation and power . In every case the adjustments were maintained for maximum power , but were adjusted to the leanest position to give that power . In all but one case the carburetors were found to be adjusted too rich for maximum power and economy . These results are considered in detail in a later part of this report .

Jun 1, 1923

By B. D. Nash

The object of this research was to investigate the technical feasibility of preparing chromium metal by the thermal decomposition of bisbenzene chromium. Bisbenzene chromium, a pi-bonded sandwich type organometallic compound, was thermally decomposed under reduced pressure to form a metal plate on a heated substrate. Metal recovery was close to 100 percent of theoretical, with deposition rates up to 20.8 mg/hr/cm2. Metal purity was dependent not only upon the purity of the starting material, but also upon the sublimation rate of bisbenzene chromium. Total detectable metallic impurities ranged from a low of 18 ppm to several hundred ppm. In general, metallic impurities were less than 100 ppm. Carbon, the major nonmetallic impurity, ranged from less than 0.3 percent to more than 10 percent. The carbon contamination is most likely a result of the decomposition of the organic portion of bisbenzene chromium. An unusual property of some of the deposits was their outstanding corrosion resistance. Unlike pure electrolytic chromium, which dissolves readily, these deposits were insoluble in hot mineral acids.

Jan 1, 1968

By W. W. Adams

The year 1937 was signalized by increased employment in the metal-and nonmetal-mining 4 industry of the United States. Measured by the number of men working, there was a 17-percent gain in employment compared with 1936. In total number of man-hours worked at all mines, the gain was slightly over 18 percent. Hazards connected with mining resulted in more accidents to the workers than in 1936, but the increase in number of accidents caused only a slight rise in the accident rate because of the much larger increase in the number of man-hours worked. In fact, the fatality rate per million man-hours of exposure was lower in 1937 than in 1936, but the rate for nonfatal injuries increased slightly.

Jan 1, 1940

By Martin Hertzberg

In this Bureau of Mines study, an equation is derived for the limit burning velocity for divergent, spherical propagation from an ignition kernel of radius, r: (Su)e = ( ) . For flame propagation into a preexisting, stretching velocity gradient of magnitude dv/dx, the limit velocity is (Su)e = (a dv/dx)1/2. These formulations are shown to be equivalent to the fluid dynamic concepts of Damkoh1er, Kar10-vitz, and Markstein. Existing data for the b10woff limits of flames are shown to give excellent agreement with those concepts provided that proper account is taken of two dilution effects: composition dilution caused by entrainment and velocity gradient dilution caused by flow expansion. Approximate flow-field solutions are also derived for the unburned gas motion above an upward propagating, spherical flame kernel in buoyancy-induced flows. It is shown that;, the upward hemisphere propagates toward a stagnation plane in a counterflow configuration involving the balance between the combustion force, which accelerates the cold gas upward, and the buoyancy force that accelerates the cold gas downward. The position of the stagnation plane above the upward propagating hemisphere is related to the ratio of the buoyant velocity, vb, to the burning velocity, Suo Extinction of the upward propagating wave occurs by flame stretch in that counterflow configuration when n = Vb/Su begins to exceed the expansion ratio, Pu/Pb' and the wave is blown off by its own buoyancy-induced flow field.

Jan 1, 1984