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By W. N. Key, L. C. Acton

Freeport Minerals Co.'s Ertsberg East underground operation typifies the cliche that all the "easy" ore deposits have already been found. Despite its location, in a remote Indonesian rain forest, and the effort and expense required to develop the ore body, the mine was developed on schedule, under budget, and with minimal disruption of the adjacent open-pit mining operation. Development of the Ertsberg East copper, gold, and silver ore body took less than two years after exploration drilling and feasibility studies were completed. In addition, the project came in well under its targeted budget of $101.5 million. Initial block caving and underground ore production took place last year. About 3 kt/d of Ertsberg's total 8.6 kt/d ore production is currently mined underground. This will increase to 5.4 kt/d by year's end. Underground operations will eventually account for all of Ertsberg's production, as the open-pit ore body is depleted. Freeport Minerals is currently studying the possibility of increasing total Ertsberg East production tonnage to 10.5 kt/d by 1983. The equipment, work practices, and development methods at Ertsberg East (Gunung Bijih Timur or "GBT"), while typical of other block caving mines, were modified for rapid mine development and maximum ore recovery. Located in the Irian Jaya province, "Gunung Bijih" is the Indonesian expression for the Dutch "Ertsberg" that in English means "ore mountain." "Timur" means "east" and relates to the fact that the new underground ore body lies about 1 km east of the open pit. The area surrounding GBT is mountainous, with peaks from 4.2-5 km. The underground mine adit and surface plant are located at a 3.6-km elevation. The mine, 4° south of the equator, gets 5.1 m/a of rain, but has an average daily temperature of only 13°C because of the mine's elevation.

Jan 7, 1981

By Fernando Muge

A complex pyrite orebody located in the South of Portugal (MO INHO) was exploited in the past by cut and fill methods until a certain level. It was decided to design a new plant for non ferrous metal extraction and the rate of production and exploitation method was modified accordingly. So, a sub level stoping (SLS) method was en visaged for the exploitation of the deepest part of the orebody (under 265 m level). For the planning of this SLS method, it was decided to perform a geostatistical study of the orebody, on the basis of the available information, which consists mainly of channel samples assayed for Cu, S, Zn and Pb.

Jan 1, 1979

By A. Haile, A. Poole

During 2001-2002, the Granny Smith Mine of Western Australia undertook the development of a planned circular failure. Excavation took place in an interim pit wall that intersected the transported sediments, lake clays, and palaeo channel sands that overlay the deposit. The purpose of the study was to refine feasibility level slope parameters used for the initial design of the Wallaby pit, with the intent of increasing the overall slope when excavating the ultimate pit limits. During excavation, the geological and hydrogeological characteristics were studied in detail and data was collected using area-specific instrumentation and monitoring. Failure occurred in mid February 2002, at which time a detailed survey of the excavated slope using laser technology was conducted to provide geometric information suitable for back analysis of the material shear strength. The slope failure and associated information was analysed by geotechnical consultants. The revised shear strength and hydrogeological parameters were then applied to design the final pit walls. The slope redesign provided a cost saving of approximately seven hundred thousand US dollars. Design, slope formation, back analysis, the geology of the clay units, the hydrological environment, planned infrastructure, management and safety issues, and the on-going slope performance of the final slope are discussed.

Jan 1, 2004

By K. Luxbacher, A. Haghighat, B. Lattimer

Mine face ignition due to high levels of methane is one of the most common fire incidents in underground coal mines. In continuous miner headings, depending on the magnitude of the ignition or resulting fire, auxiliary ventilation controls may be damaged or dislodged, affecting the ventilation into the area. A computational study was conducted to investigate the effects of different levels of damage to an exhausting ventilation curtain in a continuous miner heading, and the impact on ventilation to the face. The computational fluid dynamics software Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) Version 6.0 was used to predict the conditions that develop due to a 200-kW fire in the face following a methane ignition with different levels of assumed ventilation curtain damage. Smoke layer depth, temperature and mass flow inby the last open crosscut were used to evaluate the impact of no damage to the curtain, partially dislodged curtain, and fully removed curtain. As more of the ventilation curtain was damaged, smoke depth and temperature outby the fire increased. With the full removal of the curtain, the smoke accumulated from the last open crosscut to the face, with the ventilation completely bypassing the continuous miner region.

Jan 1, 2016

By K. V. Raj

"Air inversion is a meteorological phenomenon generally occurs during winter times. Release of pollutants below the inversion height in an open-pit mine during periods of weak winds and consequently weak vertical mixing may result in very high concentrations of primary and secondary pollutants, causing serious consequences for health and safety of miners. Mine operations cease if the concentration of NOx or CO exceeds the threshold limit value (TLV) of the pollutants. Artificial ventilation is required to dilute the pollutants to an extent that mine workers can safely resume work. Studies of the turbulence parameters suggest that effective ventilation of the pit and removal of pollutants can be accomplished if a large enough mixing length in the open pit can be created. Turbulent mixing by eddies of different length scales under an inversion layer is product of wind shear, thermal gradient and buoyancy. The main result of turbulence is mixing of the atmospheric profile and transport of momentum. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) Simulation results of a novel mitigation approach using cloud cover will be presented in this paper. INTRODUCTION In extreme climatic conditions, deep open-pit mines tend to trap pollutants at the pit bottom due to air inversions. Keeping open pits adequately ventilated is a considerable challenge for the mining community. Mine operators in cold regions are very familiar with this problem, the severity of which can be judged from Figures 1 and 2. The top portion of the figures show clear sky and snow covered benches. The brown haze, containing various contaminants accumulated over time in the pit under the air inversion, can be seen in the bottom portion of the figures. Several Arctic or subarctic mines have reported air inversions. Even Rio Tinto’s Bingham Canyon pit in Utah has reported local air inversions from time to time [1].Mitigation of pollutants in deep open-pit mines in the Arctic is a challenging task. Release of pollutants below the inversion height in an open-pit mine during periods of weak winds and consequently weak vertical mixing may result in very high concentrations of primary and secondary pollutants, causing serious consequences for human health. Mine operations cease if the concentration of any one of the pollutants (NOx or CO) exceeds the TLV. Sustained cessation of a mine operation has serious economic consequences. For continued mining operation, the levels of pollutants must be below the TLVs. If no significant synoptic meteorological situation changes during an inversion, a warm air mass sits over the cold air mass within the open pit. Artificial ventilation is required to dilute the pollutants to an extent that mine workers can safely resume work. Some of the early approaches in artificially ventilating open pits were attempted in the USSR. Most of the studies by Soviet researchers suggested the use of turbojets and turbo-propeller engines, airscrews, axial pit fans, and meteotrons [2, 3]. However, the majority of these studies were only theoretical in nature, with no evidence of an approach that really worked in practice."

Jan 1, 2017

By Z. T. Bieniawski

The efficient and safe design of room-and-pillar coal mines still remains as one of the pressing problems facing the mining industry in the United States. Although much research has been directed to stability of mine roofs and coal pillars, no generally-accepted design method has been formulated. This paper presents a concise procedure for an improved design of room-and-pillar coal mines. Developed as a result of a three-year research effort, the methodology includes essentially three aspects: (i) determination of stable roof spans; (ii) determination of the strength of coal pillars; and (iii) determination of safety factors for room-and pillar coal mining in the United States. It is shown that the presented approach will lead to a greater recovery of coal by a more economical, yet safe, mining operation. Design charts and tables are presented and a step-by-step design procedure for practical mining engineers is explained. Several examples are included demonstrating the use of the proposed design procedure for room-and-pillar coal mines.

Jan 1, 1983

By S. Tuylu, D. Adiguzel, A. Bascetin, O. Ozdemir, U. Cinar

"In recent years, use of mineral processing tailings as a paste backfill has been significantly increased due to the environmental problems occurred during the disposal of the tailings in mine area. The paste material used to fill the stopes excavated is generally consisted of tailings (solid ratio: 70–85%) and cement (3-7%w/w). Meanwhile, the strength of the paste material is completely related to ratios of these materials. Cemented Paste Backfill (CPB) system is used as support depending on the roof pressure and also as an underground disposal method. Therefore, temporary strength value of the paste material gains a great importance. For example, the paste backfill material must compensate the minimum 4 MPa strength value in order to procure the permanent fortification, and the mixture cost must be minimal as well. For this reason, in this study, the Pb-Zn tailings were used to prepare for the paste backfill material using cement in order to perform the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) tests. Additionally, a statistical experimental design and linear programming techniques was used to find the optimum mixture in terms of strength and cost. The pulp solid ratios (PSR) of the tailings and cement (by the solid) were varied as 75-85% and 3-8%, respectively. The results of this study; the optimum mixture is ~79.5%PSR and 6.8% cement ratio (by the solid) for 4 MPa UCS (28 day) and 16-17 cm slump value determined by this method with statistically reviewed experimental data. INTRODUCTION Fine-grained tailing waste materials resulting from mining activities are an important environmental problem. In terms of environmental protection, the use of tailings with paste backfill is a very attractive approach and a desirable solution to tailings management. Paste backfill, which is used to fill underground openings, is made by primarly mine tailings mixed with hydraulic binders and water. Its main benefits are not only disposal of mine tailings in underground, but also providing a certain strength to ensure a safe working environment. Therefore, it is necessary to use hydraulic binders due to durability of the system (Benzaazoua et al., 2004). Paste backfill, formed from the mix of dewatered plant tailings (75-85 wt. % solids), water and binder (3-8 wt. %) (Brackebusch, 1994; Landriault et al., 2005).Water is used to determine the chemical reactions between tailing and binder materials for strength as well as increasing pumpability. Portland cement and ash can be used as binder materials (Douglas and Malhotra, 1987). The factors which affect strength and stability of paste backfill separate into two groups called interior and exterior factors. Interior and exterior factors determine the strength, stability and deformation features of backfill in short and long terms and also affect the transportation of backfill to underground (Benzaazoua et al., 2004; Erçikdi et al., 2006; Yilmaz et al., 2010; Nasir and Fall, 2010). Material properties of tailings as well as site operations to fill the underground openings are the most important steps for the design purposes. Grain size distribution, chemical, and physical properties of tailings, and mechanical properties of paste fill material are used to understand the suitability of tailings as paste fill material (Ozturk et al., 2014). In addition, Fig. 1. is also proposed to apply a typical design for the operational stages of paste fill applications on the site."

Jan 1, 2016

By M. Zaske, E. R. Mortensen

"As mine operators continuously look for ways to improve functionality and increase the capacity of their facilities, existing process equipment is often pushed to and past its designed limitations. As a result, equipment manufacturers are asked for economical solutions to meet redefined processing needs. Newmont Mining in Nevada was faced with such a need in its carbon-in-leach (CIL) train. In a collaborative effort between Newmont and Derrick Corp., tests were conceived to assess the viability of drop-in replacement screens using a three-dimensional screen panel. The synthetic pyramid screen panel was designed to increase flux while maintaining the existing equipment footprint. The test is the end result of an ongoing research and development project that Derrick undertook in an effort to refine and upgrade its urethane screening media. The application of this new screening media is presented for this CIL application along with future plans to implement the technology in trash, safety, carbon dewatering, carbon sizing and other scalping applications.In spring 2014, Process Machinery Associates (PMA), Derrick’s local area representative, met with Newmont to discuss the operation of the in tank screens in the CIL train at Twin Creeks, near Golconda, NV. The process was originally designed for about 12+ kt/d (13,000+ stpd) but the throughput has been steadily rising since the plant was commissioned. Newmont now requires 14.5 kt/d (16,000 stpd) to be processed. The original screens were running at their maximum capacity, and Newmont required additional screening capacity to continue the upward trend in production.Physical separation by use of screening is one of mineral processing’s oldest methods. Screening media can be prone to blinding and pegging, and the necessary support structures required for finer apertures result in smaller open areas. Therefore, more screening area generally requires larger panels and, thus, larger machines, screening media that does not blind or a combination of both.In an effort to avoid larger machines, Derrick had been working on a revolutionary threedimensional panel that would add nonblinding screen area in the same footprint of an existing machine. Alpha testing of the new screen panels began at Newmont Mill 2/5 in July of 2013. It was still occurring when PMA approached Twin Creeks about beta testing a refined machine and pyramid panel. After presenting the initial results, Twin Creeks determined that an upgraded machine and pyramid panels would be a possible solution to meet production needs. The testing of a machine eliminated the risk of capital costs to Newmont and provided Derrick the opportunity to obtain additional data."

Jan 1, 2015

By Madan M. Singh

This section is unique to the Handbook in that it is the only section that deals with underground excavations for nonmining purposes. The editors were of the opinion that the section should be incorporated because the subject matter covered by the chapters is closely related to mining, and many mining engineers are currently involved in these activities. As we enter the decade of the 1990s activities in this category will increase, enhancing the relevance and utility of the material discussed. As the population increases, especially in metropolitan areas, the necessity to go underground will be greater. At the present time, not only are subsurface shopping malls and pedways connecting buildings becoming commonplace, but structures as diverse as the Civil and Mining Engineering Building on the University of Minnesota campus, a road-and-fleet maintenance facility in Multnomah County, OR, and even an ice cream parlor (Dairy Queen) in northern Wisconsin have been constructed underground. Placing utilities below the surface has numerous advantages and is now customary. Rapid transit and highways through tunnels in urban areas have been the norm for many years, but subterranean stormwater reservoirs, power plants, industrial warehouses, and food storage silos are relatively new innovations. The philosophy of underground defense installations is ancient, but their requirements and designs have trans-formed radically as technology advances. The use of under-ground space for disposition of wastes is modern, since it is recently that environmental concerns and waste disposal costs have assumed increased significance.

Jan 1, 2008

By J. L. Furtney, C. Fairhurst

"Although global mineral resources are considered to be adequate to meet the needs of a rapidly growing world population, the United States is becoming increasingly dependent on imports. This could have implications for both the economy and national security. The US is a country with a strong tradition of leadership in science and technology. Impressive advances in autonomous underground mining systems reduce the adverse effects of heat and humidity in deep mines and focus renewed attention on ground control. Developments in computing power open opportunities to develop improved understanding of the important role of discontinuities (faults and fracture systems) and more effective design of deep excavations. Establishment of mining R&D Centers at leading US research universities, jointly funded by industry and US federal agencies is recommended as an effective step for the nation to remain an influential partner in world mining. INTRODUCTION. “None of the arts is older than agriculture, but that of metals is no less ancient.. . for no mortal man ever tilled a field without implements. If we remove metals from the service of man, all methods of protecting and sustaining health and more carefully preserving the course of life are done away with.” Agricola (1558)i Homo sapiens, generally acknowledged as the species from which modern Man has evolved, is considered to have originated in Swaziland some 100,000-200,000 years ago. Evidence of use of minerals in that region has been dated to earlier than 40,000 BC.ii Today, a large fraction of the elements of the Periodic Table are derived from minerals, and finding new applications in development of innovative technologies. Agricola’s comments are as applicable today as ever.iii Metals such as copper, tin, lead, iron and aluminum were mined and smelted several thousands of years BC. It was not until the Industrial Revolution, started in the latter half of the 17th Century in Northern England, where coal was available as an energy source, and iron as the basis for fabricating machinery, that dramatic change to society began to occur. Human toil was replaced by far more powerful machines. Rural communities migrated to work in factories in urban areas. Rapid transportation over long distances became possible, leading eventually to the world of today. The change spread to other parts of the world, bringing wealth and power. Although now well established in some regions, the Revolution has still to arrive in many other parts of the world. This can be seen in Figure 1, which shows the relative wealth, or ‘Standard of Living’ as measured by the GDP/capita, of regions around the world. Regions such as North America, Europe, and Australasia iv are seen to have the highest standard. Thanks to today’s global communications systems, regions with relatively low GDP/capita are well aware of ‘how others live’ – and eager to emulate them."

Jan 1, 2018

By Grover Wallace

At is important for today?s mining executives and leaders not to underestimate the fact that, while the recent downturn in the economy did take its toll on balance sheets and productivity, factors such as emerging countries, aging workforces, globalization and individual knowledge growth did not lay dormant while the economy was in a lull. It is key for mining leaders to be proactive in their talent strategies. Successful mining companies are developing a clear, concise and communicated strategy and placing a high priority on recruiting the right talent in global markets that parallels their business strategy. They are focused on placing the right people in the right jobs.

Jan 1, 2011

By A. John R. Hart

INTRODUCTION In each given set of operational criteria for tunnel design, ground conditions dictate the selection of the most appropriate construction method and tunnel lining. The designer has the responsibility to choose or restrict the choice of the tunnel lining to insure that the final solution provides a cost-effective permanent construction which will require the minimum of maintenance and endure to the benefit of future generations. This Paper deals with some of the aspects of precast concrete tunnel linings, their history and development through the years. It does not purport to be a comprehensive review of all that has ever been tried or developed but, hopefully, a starting point to encourage discussion and development for the future. BOLTED LINERS As a result of anticipating a shortage of cast iron tunnel lining in 1936 when work was proceeding on London Transport's Central Line Metro, a design for the precast reinforced concrete bolted lining was born. The design took the form of the traditional cast-iron lining but with substantial concrete stiffeners to take the shield ram forces. This new lining was used to construct some 14,000 feet of running tunnel using a ring width of 1'8" which was the standard cast-iron width of the time. (Groves, G.L., 1943)

Jan 1, 1987

By S. Dixon

The use of warm (40-50°C) solution for the selective elution (pre-strip) of copper cyanide from gold and silver cyanides adsorbed on activated carbon was found to elute +90% of the adsorbed copper compared to the use of ambient (20°C) solution eluting 50-70% of the adsorbed copper. The warm solution pre-strip elution did have higher co-elution of gold (1-4%) and silver (10-18%) with the copper. The use of ambient solution pre-strip elution co-eluted less gold (0.2%) and silver (2%).

Mar 2, 2022

By James L. Withiam, P. C. Kelsall

The manuscript of this paper was not available for publication when the Proceedings went to press. Should the authors elect, they may distribute copies at the time of the Symposium.

Jan 1, 1986

By Joseph W. Johnson

General Electric introduced electric drive systems on 85 ton Off-Highway mining trucks in the early sixties. Due to favorable economics, trucks have increased in size to handle larger payloads. Series Motorized Wheel systems were developed to meet this demand. When the technology was available, General Electric switched from use of Series motors to separately excited motors with the added benefits of static exciters and simplified control. Over 20 years of electric drive experience have been incorporated in the STATEX drive systems, which covers truck sizes from 85 to 220 tons. This paper traces the drive system developments from the early stages to the present and takes a look at what's ahead.

Jan 1, 1983

By Gleason

"From June 16 to 19, more than 1,400 tunneling and underground construction professionals gathered in Chicago, IL for the bienial Rapid Excavation and Tunneling Conference (RETC). There, they were greeted by a full technical program and an exciting exhibit hall that provided a comprehensive look at the world’s bustling tunneling and underground construction industry.The successful conference was a reflection of the industry itself, which is to say, busy. As much of the world has begun to focus on creating a cleaner and greener environment, the global tunneling industry has seen an uptick in infrastructure projects move from design-build to construction phase. With a global shift away from the use of fossil fuels, major cities around the world are looking to increase public transportation options, which leads to the need for more transportation tunnels. And as urban populations continue to grow, the need for clean water calls for more tunnels, and as urban footprints continue to expand, the need to increase and update combined sewage overflow tunnel grows with them.During two and a half days, more than 20 sessions covering all of these topics were presented at the Hyatt Regency in Chicago, many to packed rooms in which every seat was taken and people were standing along the side and back walls.RETC is a biennial conference and one of the largest in the North America for the tunneling and underground construction industries. As such, it hosts a robust exhibit floor. This year 172 vendors occupied 205 booth spaces. The exhibit included everything from tunnel boring machine manufacturers, like Robbins and Herrenknecht, to the companies that supply all kinds of parts and services to the industry."

Sep 1, 2019

By E. McCullough, S. Gaillard

"Diesel particulate matter (DPM) has been regulated by the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration since 2002 in underground metal and nonmetal mines. To demonstrate regulatory compliance, DPM samples must be collected and later analyzed by the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) 5040 standard method, but the FLIR Airtec DPM monitor can serve as a complementary engineering tool. The monitor is a handheld instrument that offers near-real-time measurements of elemental carbon (EC), which is a primary constituent of DPM. As part of an ongoing field study, the monitor was used to survey EC in an underground stone mine. This effort was aimed at determining spatial and temporal DPM variations in several key locations. The results of prolonged area monitoring—that is, lasting several hours — revealed that DPM concentrations were diluted substantially as air moved away from the primary production zone, but that concentrations could vary quite a bit in a single location from day to day and between seasons. DPM concentrations were generally lower in winter than in summer, which is consistent with increased natural ventilation airflows during winter. Using a modified sampling cassette, an attempt was also made to sensitize the Airtec monitor to allow for “spot-checking” of EC concentrations — that is, measurements made in several minutes. Preliminary field data showed that the sensitive cassette performed well in terms of providing accurate data that could be useful for rapid assessment of DPM. IntroductionDiesel particulate matter (DPM) is the solid fraction of the exhaust emissions from a diesel engine. It largely consists of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) (Birch, 2003). The World Health Organization International Agency for Research on Cancer classified diesel exhaust, including DPM, as a carcinogen (World Health Organization, 2012). It is believed to cause and/or exacerbate respiratory illness upon inhalation, deposition and retention in lung tissue. Because DPM exists in both the micro- and nanoparticulate ranges, it can bypass typical autoimmune defense mechanisms that keep larger particles out of the respiratory system (Ristovski et al., 2012)."

Dec 1, 2016

By Henry B. Estabrooks

As was the case with many other mining companies, the management of Tennessee Copper Company' viewed with some interest reports in various trade and technical journals of the successful use of ammonium nitrate-fuel oil mixtures as an explosive in coal stripping., construction, open pit mining and finally in underground salt mines. The apparently simple transition from the "interested" stage to a point where in excess of 80% of the ex¬plosives used is ammonium nitrate may be of interest. The Tennessee Copper Company operates five mines in the "Copper Basin" of Polk County which lies on the extreme southeast corner of Tennessee. The ore is a massive sulfide principally pyrrhotite and pyrite with some tough lime silicates as gangue while the walls are greywacke interbedded with schist. Average total production is 28,000 tons per 5-day week and an average of 422 feet of development per week. Development work consists of 8'x 8?, 6?x 7?, 5'x 7? and 4'x 6? drifts driven with drifter drills using 1-5/8" carbide detachable bits and 5'x 5' raises driven with stopers using 1-5/8" bits.

Jan 1, 1962

By Daniel R. Shawe

Epigenetic ore deposits in Nevada and Utah occur in clusters or belts in a variety of tectonic settings. Many are concentrated in the western half of Nevada in a region containing numerous, relatively large intrusive bodies. Throughout Nevada and Utah, they tend to be clustered in elongate zones or belts. Some of these belts are well defined by the distribution of mineral deposits, patterns of igneous rocks, alinements of faults, and aeromagnetic anomalies, whereas others are equivocal. The Pioche belt in eastern Nevada and western Utah, the Eureka belt in central Nevada, and the Manhattan belt in western Nevada exemplify the general characteristics of these belts, the close relation of some belts to geologic structure, and the lack of a clear correspondence in other belts. Some of these belts are characterized by alined or en echelon faults that disrupt the north-trending Basin ranges, by belts of Cretaceous and Tertiary granitoid and porphyry intrusive rocks near which the ore deposits occur, and by alined magnetic anomalies generally related to the Cretaceous and Tertiary intrusive rocks. All the mineral belts have produced precious and base metals and tungsten; the Manhattan belt in addition has produced magnesite and brucite; and the Pioche belt, uranium, fluorspar, and alunite. The belts in Nevada and Utah may be related to a variety of factors, such as zones of structural weakness in Precambrian rocks, transverse zones of lateral faulting, localized areas of igneous activity, or a combination of these and other factors. Specific types of ore deposits in Nevada and Utah seem related compositionally to the intrusive bodies with which they are associated. Iron deposits, for example, are associated with mafic intrusive rocks such as diorite or gabbro, whereas copper deposits generally and tungsten deposits almost exclusively are associated with granitic intrusive rocks such as quartz monzonltc and granodiorite.

Jan 1, 1976

By Peter J. King

Demand for both lead and zinc to the year 2000 will be characterised by modest to nil growth in mature economies, with positive 3 to 4 per cent annual growth rates in developing nations. Asia and China will feature significantly in this growth. Overall lead demand is expected to grow about 1 per cent a year, with industry becoming more dependent on the fortunes of the automotive industry as the lead-acid battery will be the only major end use to expand. Zinc will become more dependent on its main use, galvanising, as the automotive and construction industries move to high levels of dependence on corrosion prevention. Strong growth in zinc consumption in S.E. Asia, China and India is likely to feature widespread development of the continuous steel strip mini-galvanising line technology. Thank you Mr. Chairman for inviting me to this Conference. As an Australian I am honoured to be here to offer some thoughts about future trends in metal consumption -- with particular reference to the role of countries in my own neighbourhood, the developing Asian nations, including China. It is customary for a member of the producer fraternity to speak to the topic of future development. This is no doubt due to the fact that our companies are so often engaged in endeavours to determine the future prospects of the metals as essential background to massive investment decisions relating to the development of new mines and smelters. This is sometimes also applied in relation to the more painful decision of closures of aging operations. In this paper I have drawn upon recent studies by AM&S into the future of lead and zinc. While this work has been thorough and skillful, we are nonetheless left with uncertainty on a number of counts. Firstly. predictions in the past in our industry have not been all that credible. Need I remind a U.S. audience for instance of the Paley ' investigation setup by President Truman in 1950 to study U.S. copper requirements for 25 years in the future. Asarco's Simon Strauss gave those of us daring to forecast long term commodity trends a salutary reminder that the Paley Commission with all the expertise at its disposal missed the mark in its copper predictions by a very wide margin indeed. Additionally, it is difficult to take comfort from longer term economic forecasts. Too many important economic issues remain unresolved suggesting considerable caution. These include the threat of growing protectionism; low economic growth rates with stubborn unemployment levels; and levels of government expenditure at near saturation as a percentage of GDP, to name a few. However, on a more optimistic note. we can look to China, where there appears to be momentum in its economic growth; oil, where stable oil prices to the mid 1990's will contribute to inflation control; and the fact that LDC debt, while still a major issue, is declining in importance and priority. In the short time allocated to us. I wish to deal succinctly with the lead and zinc raw materials supply picture, which is one I do not believe will hold too many surprises for this audience. Following the review of raw materials supply, we will turn our attention to the changes in the pattern of demand towards the year 2000. emphasising the Asian position. In this context. I would like to focus on the theme of the changes in OECD consumption levels relative to those of the emerging nations. One area we will be paying special attention to is China.

Jan 1, 1986