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By Henry S. Washington

Introduction. It Still Rains On The Choco ! I Well Remember One Evening A Dozen Years Ago, While. Traveling Toward The Town Of Negua In A Small Champa Or Dug-Out Canoe, The Rain Fell So Heavily That I Had To Work My Hardest To Bail Out The Water With A Large Totuma Or Gourd In Order To Keep The Canoe Afloat, The Senegambian Meanwhile Plying His Paddle In The Stern. If Any One Thinks Bailing Is Easy Work, Let Him Scoop Out A Quart Or More At A Stroke, 40 Times A Minute For Half An Hour, And I Venture That He Will Change His Opinion. These Small Canoes Required Only One Paddler, To Make The 3 Miles An Hour Which Is The Standard Rate Of Aquatic Progress On The Choco. Another Time, On The Atrato River, About Six O'clock In The Afternoon, The Rain Fell So Heavily Than An Empty Gourd, 9 In. In Diameter And 4.5 Deep, Was Filled To The Brim In 90 Sec., Timed By A Watch. Such Downpours Are Typical, But Unless Caught In One It Is Not Specially Noticed. These Downpours Seldom Last More Than An Hour, And Frequently Cover Only A Limited Area, Occasionally Falling On One Bank Of A River And Not On The Other. During The Night-Time,' The Rain, If Gentle, Will Usually Last Until Dawn, And Sometimes An Intermittent Drizzle Will Keep Up All Day As Well, Although, As A Rule, It Rarely Rains During The Day. The Rise Of The Rivers, Due To The Rain-Fall, Varies From A Few Inches To Several Feet. One Night In August, 1899, The Spuds Of The Dredge Margaret, Operating On The Atrato River, Showed A, Rise Of 16 Ft., And For 3 Days Thereafter Occurred The Greatest Flood Known In That District For 32 Years. The Dredge Had All Three Spuds Clown, And The 2-Yd. Shovel Dragging On The Bottom. A 0.75-In. Cable Fast To A Stout Tree, 700 Ft. Away, Stretched Tight

Sep 1, 1908

By B. R. Mohal, S. Chander

"A new technique to determine wettability of powders is presented in this paper. In this technique the times for immersion of individual particles from air into liquids, defined as imbibition times, are measured. Through the measurements of imbibition times for a large number of particles, it is possible to determine homogeneity/heterogeneity of a powder sample with regard to its wetting behavior. Quartz particles give a very narrow distribution of imbibition times showing a homogeneous wetting surface whereas coal particles give a broad distribution indicative of the heterogeneous nature of its surface. The imbibition time measurement technique is considered to have certain advantages over other methods to determine wettability of powders in surfactant solutions. In this study we have also compared the imbibition times with the wetting rate mea¬surements obtained by a modified Walker test.INTRODUCTIONSeveral methods are available for determining wetting characteristics of sol¬ids. Each of the methods has been used in the past to obtain very valuable information for comparing wetting behavior of various solids in a given liquid or for comparing the wetting behavior of several liquids for a given solid. Each method measures a somewhat different aspect of wetting and therefore quantitative correlations between techniques have been difficult. A general approach is to use a method in which close similarity between the technique and the application (where results of wetting measurements are to be used) can be maintained. The objective of this investigation was to develop a method which could be used to determine the wetting characteristics of single particles in surfactant solutions. Wetting of individual particles is of importance in cap¬ture of dust particles by sprays of surfactant solutions.METHODS FOR DETERMINING WETTING — A BRIEF REVIEWThe various methods available for measuring wetting characteristics of solids include: contact angle, immersion/sink time, bubble pick-up, induction time, capillary rise, and displacement method measurements. Some of the methods are briefly reviewed in the paragraphs that follow."

Mar 1, 1989

By Nicholas P. Callas

This report presents research results obtained in the investigation of deviation control of boreholes in the rotary drilling process. The approach taken in this research is the passive method of placing stabilizers in the bottom-hole assembly to control deviation. Extensive use was made of the drill string mechanics theories of Lubinski and Woods. Analog, digital and hybrid solutions to variety of boundary value problems were investigated in order to determine the best models for bottom-hole assemblies. Field drilling data was analyzed and the results obtained from various models were compared to the actual drilling results. Various accomplishments of this work have been published in open energy industry literature, with more publications to follow.

Jan 1, 1981

By E. C. Yeager, E. O. Wagner, A. W. Koth, V. F. Parry, J. B. Goodman, D. G. Gernes, W. L. Patty

"In July 1943, the Bureau of Nines received an appropriation to investigate the beneficiation of Minnesota iron ores through the use of lignite. The broad objective was to find a way to link the large deposits of lignite in North Dakota with the low-grade iron ores of Minnesota. It was proposed that sponge iron might be made through new methods of processing, and one of the objectives was to determine the possibilities of gaseous reduction of fine ore. The problem of obtaining high-hydrogen reducing gases from lignite was assigned to the Subbituminous Coal and Lignite Section of the Bureau of Mines in August 1943.Through the advice of technical consultants and men familiar with the mineral resources of Minnesota and North Dakota, a tentative program of development was outlined. The first proposal was to study the gasification of lignite briquets in a standard water-gas machine. Previous experience with gasification of lignite indicated that the raw fuel would not be suitable for use in the conventional water-gas process on account of degradation, but gasification of lignite briquets appeared possible. Through the cooperation of the Northern State Power Co„ a series of tests was made at the company's plant in Grand Forks, N. Dak., on lignite-char briquets made by the Lehigh Briquetting Co. at Dickinson, Dak. These briquets are made by the Lurgi process, and they have been used satisfactorily as a domestic fuel. The object of the tests was to compare gasification properties of lignite-char briquets with those of gas. coke made from Kentucky coal, normally used in the Grand Forks plant. The tests revealed that the lignite-char briquets were not suitable for gasification, in the standard water-gas process because of disinte-gration and low efficiency caused by loss of fine carbon.While these investigations were underway, a joint Minnesota-North Dakota Development Commission was formed to aid in planning investigations on development of mineral resources of the two States. Some members of this commission were technical men, who with consulting engineers on the Bureau's staff made up an unofficial technical committee, and assisted in solving certain problems connected with gasification of lignite and beneficiation of iron ores. This committee has been of 'real assistance in guiding the investigation.A technical meeting was held in Minneapolis on November 10 and 11, 1943, for further discussion of objectives and certain technical problems. Results of tests on lignite briquets were presented, and several reports analyzing other methods of gasification were discussed. The Reyerson-Gernes process for the continuous gasification of lignite in an externally heated retort was considered from several angles. This process differs from others in that the natural moisture in the coal is utilized to help gasify the coal, and the volatile matter is largely decomposed. Although this process had been carried out successfully in a small steel retort, no definite design for a commercial-scale retort had .been developed. It was first proposed that the process might be carried out in a Glover-West retort. However, it was brought out that a Glover-West retort would require modification to simulate the process correctly, and that good results might not be obtained even then owing to the leakage of gas through the refractory walls and to an anticipated low rate of heat transfer at the gasification temperature suitable for lignite. Further, the probable leakage of inert furnace gas into the water-gas would be adverse to the Objective to obtain a gas that could be purified to 96 percent hydrogen."

Jun 1, 1946

By R. W. Bee

This project, sponsored by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, Division of Environment, addresses two major subjects: refuse removal and subsidence monitoring. The refuse removal task consisted of developing a methodology for selecting the most economical combinations of coal mine breaker refuse and rock banks, disposal sites and material moving systems (trucks, trains, belt conveyers and pipelines). To prepare plans for moving refuse in the Lackawanna Valley of Northeastern Pennsylvania, refuse banks were inventoried, underground disposal sites identified and unit cost data prepared for the various material moving systems. The subsidence monitoring task consisted of defining the phenomenon of coal mine induced surface subsidence, establishing operational requirements, cataloging sensors and techniques to detect and measure subsidence and testing of the most promising techniques (photoelastic patch, tiltmeter, strain gage, microseismic and precise surveying). A preliminary system for a 700 acre area in Scranton utilizing 267 grid sensors, seven microseismic sensors and precise surveying techniques was designed with initial and annual operating costs determined. Two minor tasks supported both main subjects: zoning in the Northern Anthracite Field of Pennsylvania and Technology Transfer of subsidence vulnerability prediction techniques.

Jan 1, 1972

By O. K. Olawale, G. O. Edaogbogun, B. N. Ben‑Festus, F. Ben, F. R. Amodu

The environmental and health implications of artisanal gold mining activities at mining sites across Nigeria have rekindled research interest. This study aimed to assess the scalability of naturally occurring radioactive materials in gold mining sites in Iperindo, Nigeria. Soil samples were collected from three different mining sites and control locations and analyzed for natural radionuclides, mainly 238U, 232Th, and 40K, using gamma spectrometry having a sodium iodide detector. The average activity concentration values of 61.55 ± 3.71, 72.65 ± 4.45, and 1134.99 ± 38.12 Bqkg− 1 obtained from within the mining sites for 238U, 232Th, and 40K, respectively, were above the world permissible values of 33.0 Bqkg− 1 for 238U, 45.0 Bqkg− 1 for 232Th, and 420.0 Bqkg− 1 for 40K. The average activity concentration values of 15.26 ± 3.19, 21.46 ± 4.27, 381.04 ± 23.36 Bqkg− 1 estimated for 238U, 232Th, and 40K, respectively, for the control location were, however, lower than the global permissible values. The study also evaluated other radiological parameters such as radium equivalent, dose rate, annual effective dose rate, internal and external hazard indices, and alpha and gamma indices. The obtained values were 252.83 Bqkg− 1, 119.98 nGyh− 1, 147.15 mSvy− 1, 0.85 Bqkg− 1, 0.68 Bqkg− 1, 0.31 Bqkg− 1, and 1.89 Bqkg− 1 respectively. Except for radium equivalent, external and internal hazard risks, and alpha index, which were significantly lower than the recommended threshold, all other radiological parameters were higher than the recommended global limits. Moderate data reproducibility and a p-value of 0.000574 further reinforced the robustness and reliability of the results obtained in this study.

Feb 22, 2024

By A. D. McMahon

This survey is one of a series of Bureau of Mines publications designed to serve the needs of Government and industry for comprehensive information on mineral commodities and activities. Copper, a versatile metal, has been vital to all civilizations from pre-historic times to the present. Its essential value in antiquity and until the nineteenth century arose from its malleability and ease of working, its corrosion resistance and durability, its attractive colors in alloyed and unalloyed forms, and, of course, its availability. The principal uses were for tools, utensils, vessels, weapons, pipe, statuary and other objects of art, and for building and architectural purposes where formability, permanence, and beauty were necessary qualities. Utilization of copper based on these physical and mechanical properties has grown tremendously for commercial, structural, mechanical, architectural, and art items; and its capacity for forming numerous alloys has led to a myriad of applications from miniature copper and brass eyelets to huge bronze battleship propellers. The early nineteenth century marks the epoch of the greatest use of copper, transmitting electrical energy. This particular property of copper is fundamental to the spectacular growth of the electrical industry and all associated industries relying on electricity for power, light, and heat. More than half of all copper produced is used for transmission of electricity.

Jan 1, 1964

By Richard J. Stoehr

Man has mined in all his time on earth about 3 billion ounces of gold. About one-half of this has been mined in the past 35 years. This gold is roughly in 3 large holdings: one-third held as reserves in Central Banks; one-third held as personal reserves; and one-third is in jewelry or other fabricated products. The world per capita availability of mined gold is increasing and there are many factors and forces shaping gold's future. Currently, gold has a favorable exchange ratio and this is encouraging many new gold-mining developments. Production is increasing and new techniques are surfacing. The use of gold in the financial markets is increasing in some unique ways and gold is again fulfilling its role as a universal money, making gold's future predictable. Currently, man is mining gold at the rate of approximately 44 million ounces annually and is therefore adding to the total supply of gold approximately 1.5% of newly mined gold each year. This current production plays a small role in the pricing mechanisms since a very large part of the 3 billion ounces mined in all of history is available to the market in one form or another.

Jan 1, 1984

By Henry Kreisinger, WALTER T. RAY

In its investigation of more efficient methods for utilizing the coals and lignites in the United States, to the end that waste might be avoided, the value of low-grade coals increased, and the life of the nation's fuel resources prolonged, the technologic branch of the United States Geological Survey carried on a study of the factors involved in the manufacture and use of briquets, including the suitability of various coals for briquetting, the cheapest and most satisfactory binders, and the furnace behavior and evaporative efficiency of briquetted fuel. The investigations had their beginning in the work done at the coaltesting plant at the Louisiana Purchase Exposition, St. Louis, Mo., in 1904, and were continued at St. Louis and later at Norfolk, Va. Accounts of various tests and statements of the conclusions to be drawn from them have appeared in a number of bulletins. a In connection with the work at Norfolk, comparative steaming tests were made in stationary, marine, and locomotive boilers with run-ofmine coal and the same coal formed into briquets of two sizes. The tests in a locomotive boiler that are described in detail in this bulletin were undertaken to add cumulative evidence to work done at other places. They were made possible through the courtesy of the Seaboard Air Line Railway Company in supplying both the locomotive and the coal used. During the trials the locomotive stood on a side track in the shop yards of the railway company at Portsmonth, Va. No running tests were made.

Jan 1, 1911

By E. G. Kearnery

Introduction It is believed that the present paper will be of some interest, not because of any outstanding features of Renabie milling practice but because Renabie is the first gold mining property in a newly explored area - in Leeson and Rennie townships, Sudbury district, Ontario - to reach the production stage. The Renabie mill was originally designed by the General Engineering Company (Canada), Limited, as a 300-ton plant and went into operation in June, 1947, treating an average of only 128 tons a day for the balance of that year. Toward the end of 1948 the capacity of the plant was expanded to 450 tons a day, and the tonnage treated was gradually increased from the 1947 figure to the point where 420 tons a day was averaged for the first nine months of 1949. Description of Ore In general, the outstanding gangue component of Renabie ore is white quartz, which comprises at least 80 per cent of its total bulk and in some sections considerably more. Virtually all the gold occurs in very finely divided state; only very rarely has free gold coarser than 325 mesh been observed. The ore has a very low sulphide content, ranging from about 0.50 to 1.00 per cent by weight. The gold occurs both free in the gangue and ? locked in sulphides, the proportion of one to the other varying considerably from one orebody to the other. Pyrite is by far the most abundant sulphide, followed by galena, which, however, appears to be entirely absent in some of the orebodies. Minor amounts of pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, chalcocite, and sphalerite have been noted. The ore appears to be entirely free, or almost so, of minerals containing arsenic, antimony, or molybdenum, and in general it could be described as free milling. The various hindrances to extraction of the gold which have been met with are believed to be due largely to the very finely divided state of the metal and to its intimate association with the sulphides and gangue. The ore contains silver, with the gold-silver ratio about 3:1.

Jan 1, 1950

By W. W. Adams

Every man-hour of work performed in and about the coal mines of the United States had a 2-percent heavier death load from accidents in 1938 than in 1937. This is an unorthodox way of stating that the death rate per million man-hours of exposure or employment was 2 percent higher in 1938 than in 1937, increasing from 1.74 to 1.78. Thus the average miner had a 2-percent greater chance of being killed in 1938 than he had in 1937. The average quantity of coal resulting from 1 man-hour of work increased 3.6 percent -from 0.615 ton in 1937 to 0.637 ton in 1938. The production of the average ton of coal was accompanied by a slightly smaller loss of life in 1938 than in 1937, the accident rate being 2.793 per million tons in 1938 compared with 2.833 in 1937.

Jan 1, 1941

This report presents the results of a study for the Bureau of Mines to compare loan terms for non-fuel mineral projects in developing countries, from various International Financial Institutions (IFIs), and from private sector commercial sources. The study compares IFI and commercial loan terms for seven mineral projects in developing countries. The International Financial Institutions represented are: ? International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) ? International Finance Corporation (IFC) ? Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) ? Asian Development Bank (ADB) ? International Monetary Fund (IMF) In addition, the costs of financing for these mineral projects were compared with the costs of long-term debt to the five largest U.S. mineral producers.

Jan 1, 1986

By K Ringwood, J Cummings, C J. Moran

The development of a water accounting framework that enables consistent and contextual reporting of minerals operationsÆ water use, represents a key sustainable development objective that many Australian minerals companies have committed to. A future water accounting framework will require: key terms and definitions for water metrics for use in the Australian minerals industry that are consistent with the wider water sector, a suite of metrics representing key components of an operationÆs water balance, a calculation method for some of the metrics, and a reporting protocol. This paper presents the methodology that was used to derive these four components. Existing accounting frameworks were reviewed and key terms and definitions that were consistent with current regulatory requirements and voluntary approaches were proposed. A calculation methodology was developed to obtain some of the key indicators and variables that cannot be easily measured directly (eg water loss through evaporation). The adopted terms and definitions typically require a combination of empirical and estimated data. To test the proposed definitions and calculation methodology, values for water metrics were derived for eight sites, selected to test a variety of commodity and biophysical situations. The proposed framework and definitions could deal with the specific situations selected as case studies. The associated calculation methodology produced complete accounts at various levels. Some elements of the accounts could be directly checked against available data and simulations. The framework captured well variations in the reuse efficiencies; reuse efficiency could even vary for similar processes. It is concluded that this preliminary accounting framework provides a consistent language and metrics for quantifying and communicating water management, both at the intersection of the site with the surrounding landscape (through detailed reporting of site inputs and outputs) and within operational activities. Using this consistent framework for quantifying and documenting water use within an operation will provide a platform for compiling and comparing minerals industry water use with other sectors. This may support benchmarking activities within regions or companies and help demonstrate leadership amongst water users in water resource stewardship. The approach presented here is applicable to a wide variety of mining and processing activities, and biophysical environments, and following a period of stakeholder engagement and third party review, is being refined as a first step towards developing nationally consistent water use reporting for the Australian minerals industry.

Jan 1, 2009

By J. C. Reid

Pre-cambrian scheelite deposits in Northeastern Brazil are widespread in a high grade metamorphic terrain. Previously these deposits had been interpreted as contact-metasomatic. In this paper, a volcanigenic model is invoked based on the volcanic setting (proximal to distal) and the absence of associated felsic intrusives and spatially associated metasomatic skarns. The tungsten was introduced into sediments by volcanic- exhalative processes and subsequently remobilized and further concentrated by heat and metamorphis fluids associated with high-grade metamorphism and migmitization. An alternative syngenetic - diagenetic model is discussed which requires the transport of tungsten by heteropoly acids and deposition of the tungsten as a function of Eh and Ph conditions and different clastic depositional environments. While such stratabound tungsten deposits are considered rare in North America, the hypotheses developed in this paper may open new areas for exploration.

Jan 1, 1983

By W. W. Adams

The accident-prevention record of the coal-mining industry in the United States was more favorable in 1936 than in 1935, both from the standpoint of the relative safety of the individual miner on the job and of the price in life and limb that the Nation paid for its year's supply of coal. The increase in relative safety of the individual miner was indicated by a lower death rate and a lower injury rate than in the preceding year per million man-hours of exposure to the hazards of mining; that is, per million hours of work performed by the employees. (See table 1.) A reduction in the price in life and limb that the Nation paid for a year's supply of coal was indicated by a smaller death rate and a smaller injury rate per million tons of coal produced. Thus the individual miner was a better insurance risk, as far as accidents were concerned, in 1936 than in 1935, and a ton of coal used in the homes and industries of the country represented less human suffering than in 1935. The two points of view are distinct, and both should be kept in mind when considering accidents and safety in coal mining or in other industries. More men were employed in 1936 than in 1935, and more workdays were available for the individual miner. Large gains were also made in the total number of man-shifts and man-hours worked in the industry as a whole. In number of tons of coal mined, 1936 showed large gains over 1935. Moreover, the average output of coal per man-hour worked was higher in 1936 than in 1935. All of these gains were made without lengthening the average number of hours of work per man per day.

Jan 1, 1939

By D. Harrington

The mining industry of the United States has-long been severely criticized because of its high rate of accident occurrence, net only as compared with other major industries-in the United States but also with the mining industries of other countries particularly Europe. Statistics (often not of strictly comparable nature) indicate that the accident-frequency rate in all mining is currently about three times and the accident-severity rate is about seven times as great as the average for general industrial work in the United States. These figures are by no means comforting to humanitarian mining men, irrespective of their status in. the industry, and they constitute a challenge that certainly cannot continue to be ignored much longer. This picture becomes much darker when the above statistics are augmented with data indicating that. on an exposure basis our mines (more particularly our coal mines) have accident rates two, three, or even more times as great as more or less similar types of mines in Europe, particularly England and Wales, Belgium, France, and Germany. However, these foreign accident statistics should be carefully analyzed before we become very mush concerned about them, because they are clot strictly comparable owing to several considerations, not the least of which is the fact that foreign methods of compiling or recording accident statistics often differ materially from ours. Moreover, foreign mining and other conditions axe definitely dissimilar to ours in many if not most phases, and numerous ether factors affect the comparability of foreign mine-accident statistics with ours. Unquestionably it should also be taken into consideration that the accident rate of the 130,000,000 or more constituting the populace of the United. States as a whole is much higher than that of any other major country in the world and is two, throe, or more times the rate of the European countries that have more favorable mine-accident rates than those of the United States. Moreover, it is significant that the mine-accident-severity- rate of British mines is about six times the average accident-severity rate of the major industries of the British Isles, or but little mere, favorable than the comparable figures in the United States, namely, that mining-has an accident-severity rate about seven times that of the average of about 30 of the major industries of this country.

Jan 1, 1941

By John B. Ivey

This is a geologic study of the U.S. Bureau of Mines Oil Shale Tract in the Piceance Creek Basin of Rio Blanco County, Colorado for the preparation of a set of detailed surface geologic maps, measurement and identification of joint attitudes and frequencies, and the classification and mapping of the soils of the area.

Jan 1, 1978

By Joanna LaForte

"In response to “Arctic Mineral Wealth —Equitable Participation with Aboriginal Landowners – A slow or fast process?”, this author’s impression is one that, to her, seems obvious — this is definitely going to be a slow process. To question this issue seems ridiculous, unless the mining industry is considering following the same patters of the past, thereby adding to the suppression and injustices to which the aboriginals are so accustomed. To make genuine progress, where trust and good communication has been achieved with time as a factor in proceeding, the author feels, without a doubt, that the triangle of industry, government and aboriginals will seriously have to be restructured or eliminated. Anytime you mix government with progress, along with other problems, you are looking at bureaucracy, and that takes time. Issues such as the settlement of land claims have not been resolved, and in all likelihood could take forty years to finalize. Aboriginals have been suppressed for centuries by governments and industries with ethnocentric ideologies, and now that they are in a position to reclaim their lands, attain their own economies and government, and truly secure a wealthy, self-sufficient legacy for their descendants, how can anyone imagine they’ll move quickly? This author also strongly disagrees to some sections of Mr. Wakefeld’s article and will expand on her objections.We question whether aboriginals under-stand the process of mine development. If we encounter an electrical problem in our home, o we not call an electrician without having to learn the trade ourselves? This comparison seems simplistic, but does convey a point. As cited, “there are now over 100 000 aboriginals who have completed post-secondary education.” Are the numbers revealed in Mr. Wakefeld’s paper there to scare us? Is he suggesting that without the industry’s haste, the aboriginal’s new found intelligence could pose a problem to the mineral explorer. While it is true that not all are highly educated, the aboriginals have specialists in market fluctuations, feasibility studies and the needed skills. They have specialists, such as their representative organization of COPE 1984, (the Committee for Original People’s Entitlement), who under-stand their cultures, language and desires. Their education should expedite the negotiations and end the power struggles equitably. Aboriginal people are not stupid. Once they have reason to be proud, regain their communities and know the direction that they’re headed, their self-determination will return."

Jan 1, 1996

By Theron A. Klinefelter, Sidney Speil, Sidney Gottlied

"INTRODUCTION The investigation of domestic talcs by the United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Mines, was initiated in December 1941 at the request Gen. Charles Hines of the United States Army. The urgency for such study was expressed by General Hines as follows:The radio-manufacturing industry has recently been expanded by the Army to provide sufficient, capacity for defense needs, and considerable concern has been expressed by the supply Arms and Services over maintaining continued availability of supplies of the necessary raw material. These ceramic products are used by the Signal Cores in all Army radio equipment, and to a greater degree in the new special ultra-high-frequency equipment. The Air Corps has recently become a user large amounts of radio-grade ceramics for aircraft spark-plug covers required for high-altitude operations. In addition, the use of this material is essential to the proper functioning of the radio-navigation aids of the Civil Aeronautics Board.Progress in the Bureau of Mines studies on talc was made available to representatives of the Army and Navy through frequent interim reports. Through the efforts of the several war agencies concerned with raw-materials supply and the domestic talc producers, the condition of scarcity that developed in 1942 passed to one of ease in 1943, and has so continued to date. Tentative estimate of reserves delineated indicates a supply of high-grade steatite sufficient to meet military war requirements for at least 4 or 5 years."

Apr 1, 1945

Statistics is essentially a study of variability, the use of some suitable mathematical model representative of such variability, and the application of this inferred pattern of behaviour to practical problems. Probability theory is the mathematical structure devised for providing models for chance happenings. Perhaps the simplest example of a chance happening is the result obtained in tossing a coin. Although the result of a single toss can never be predicted with certainty, there is no reason why in repeated tosses the expectancy of heads and tails should not be equal. In such a case the outcomes of the experiment are said to be equally likely, so that the probability of obtaining heads (or tails) is 1 in 2, that is, 0,5. This simple probability .model refers to a 'mathematical' or 'unbiased' coin. Whether such probabilities are meaningful for actual coins tossed in any particular way is a matter for experience to determine. Probability models have also provided the basis for representing observed variability in cases where the actual under- lying probabilities are only partly known or defy analysis. A typical example of the latter case is the variability observed in the values obtained from gold or other ore samples. The interacting natural forces which gave rise to this variability are obviously very complex and are unlikely ever to be unravelled completely. In spite of this, probability theory and the more recent geostatistical theories have provided us with models which can represent this variability on a reasonable basis. Applied statistics and geostatistics must therefore never be accepted as exact mathematical sciences. Furthermore, a basic and essential concept is that in the type of applications covered in these notes, no model must ever be accepted as necessarily the final and exact answer to the problem; thus, any model must prove and continue to prove its appropriateness in practice, preferably by follow-up comparisons.

Jan 1, 1981