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By S H. Begg

There is strong evidence that many major oil and gas (O&G) projects are plagued by large cost and schedule overruns, or significant underperformance in productivity. Similar evidence exists for large mining projects. This paper claims that uncertainty is the underlying reason why projects fail to deliver the metrics used to justify their investment, or to deliver the economic value possible if alternative decisions had been made.Most technical and economic analyses are performed to reduce uncertainty to help make decisions. Decision-making is about ranking alternatives and choosing the best; rarely are precise predictions required, if this is even possible. Better uncertainty assessment is one of the keys to better decisions, thus better business outcomes. To get better decisions it is suggested that the focus or reward/penalty incentives be shifted away from the quality of outcomes to the quality of decisions. High-quality decisions are those that are generated from the skilled use of the tools, methodologies and processes from the discipline of decision analysis.Uncertainty is quantified by probability, which is a degree of belief in the truth/falsity of some proposition about a quantity relevant to a decision, such as volume of in-place resource, future price or action of a competitor. The probability a person ascribes to a proposition depends upon their information set; hence probability is subjective – it is not an inherent attribute of the quantity of interest or the physical system.The above simple observations have profound implications for modelling approaches, how they deal with uncertainty, the use of data to help assess uncertainty and the reliability of information provided by subject-matter experts. The limited circumstances under which frequency data (from spatial or temporal variables) can be used to assign probabilities is also reviewed.People, in general, are subject to a range of biases and cognitive errors. Research with O&G subject-matter experts shows that their expertise offers little or no protection from making errors in probability assessments and other judgements.CITATION:Begg, S H, 2016. Decisions, decisions – uncertainty, variability, modelling and psychology, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 9–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By J. N. Geyer

During the early stages of the mining industry of the United States an apparently inexhaustible supply of high-quality, easily accessible coal made the product cheap and the attendant mining methods wasteful of recoverable coal. Because coal from advance places could be mined with less effort and a large outwit obtained as the entries advanced, much of the coal left in pillars to support the roof was lost. Squeezes often developed in these mined-over areas, or, if pillars were of sufficient size to-prevent squeeze, the roof would be so weakened by long exposure that any pillar recovery was extremely hazardous. As the value of unmined coal increased, a high recovery of the available coal became necessary. Numerous plans were tried during the period that followed, some of the methods proving successful while others were complete failures or only partly successful. As a better knowledge was pained of the roof strata and its behavior, however, pillar mining became more successful and methods suited to special roof conditions were developed.

Jan 1, 1933

By D. Harrington

The mining industry of the United States has-long been severely criticized because of its high rate of accident occurrence, net only as compared with other major industries-in the United States but also with the mining industries of other countries particularly Europe. Statistics (often not of strictly comparable nature) indicate that the accident-frequency rate in all mining is currently about three times and the accident-severity rate is about seven times as great as the average for general industrial work in the United States. These figures are by no means comforting to humanitarian mining men, irrespective of their status in. the industry, and they constitute a challenge that certainly cannot continue to be ignored much longer. This picture becomes much darker when the above statistics are augmented with data indicating that. on an exposure basis our mines (more particularly our coal mines) have accident rates two, three, or even more times as great as more or less similar types of mines in Europe, particularly England and Wales, Belgium, France, and Germany. However, these foreign accident statistics should be carefully analyzed before we become very mush concerned about them, because they are clot strictly comparable owing to several considerations, not the least of which is the fact that foreign methods of compiling or recording accident statistics often differ materially from ours. Moreover, foreign mining and other conditions axe definitely dissimilar to ours in many if not most phases, and numerous ether factors affect the comparability of foreign mine-accident statistics with ours. Unquestionably it should also be taken into consideration that the accident rate of the 130,000,000 or more constituting the populace of the United. States as a whole is much higher than that of any other major country in the world and is two, throe, or more times the rate of the European countries that have more favorable mine-accident rates than those of the United States. Moreover, it is significant that the mine-accident-severity- rate of British mines is about six times the average accident-severity rate of the major industries of the British Isles, or but little mere, favorable than the comparable figures in the United States, namely, that mining-has an accident-severity rate about seven times that of the average of about 30 of the major industries of this country.

Jan 1, 1941

By C. W. Handy

ONE LAW cannot he evaded, the economic law of supply and demand. Silver, like any other commodity, is subject to this law; and its price in the long run is determined by existing conditions. I say "in the lone run because at times silver has appeared to mope contra to basic coalitions. Such movements, however, are, occasioned by the market's attempt to anticipate changes in these governing conditions. If the expected changes materialize then the new market level is justified, but if they do not then the market will revert to its previous status, A striking example of such a move occurred in November when the price advanced over 70, in ten days and then in the next two weeks lost more than it had gained. The reasons for this advance were that the speculative element interpreted certain events as favorable to silver namely, England suspension of the gold standard, higher shat prices, and the Chinese-Japanese crisis. When these expectations proved unjustified the inevitably, elapse followed became the governing conditions had not channel.

Jan 1, 1932

By Heinrich Ries

I. INTRODUCTION. THE facts is presented in this paper, based chiefly on recon¬naissance made, during the summer of 1903, by myself and my assistant, Mr. R.. C. Brooks, cover practically all that portion of Texas lying east of the 99th meridian. The work was undertaken for the University of Texas Mineral Survey, and was to have been extended over the entire State, but the sudden termination of the survey prevented even the official publication of the results already obtained. Most of the mineral resources of Texas were fully treated by the First Geological Survey, but the clay-industry was tit that time little developed, so that only a few scattered notes concerning it are to be found in the Survey reports. The extensive exploitation of the clay-deposits, however, has emphasized their commercial importance, and has also made accessible many facts of exceptional interest concerning their geologic conditions. The erection of new plants for the utilization of clay-products is usually preceded by more or less prospecting, which, by reason of the scarcity of outcrops, and the geologic and topographic conditions of eastern and southeastern Texas, is often slow and difficult work. This is especially true in the Tertiary and Pleistocene areas, where the structural conditions much resemble those of the Atlantic coastal plain, the deposits being mostly lenticular in form, and surrounded by beds of sand. II. GENERAL GEOLOGY OF THE CLAY-DEPOSITS. The accompanying sketch-map, Fig. 1, shows the location of nearly all the deposits examined, their relation to the geology of the State, and the type of clay found in each. The geology is based on the published work of Hill, Cummins, Tail, Adams, Hayes and Kennedy, but the boundaries have unfortunately not been determined over the entire region covered by the map, and, in many areas, are only approximate. It will be seen that the clay-deposits range from Carboniferous to Pleistocene in age, the older deposits being found in the northwestern part of the area, while those of Cretaceous and Tertiary age lie to the east, southeast and south. The Pleistocene clays are found in part in a belt along the coast, and in part along many of the larger rivers, where they often underlie extensive terraces.

Sep 1, 1906

By Z. Saw, C. Poveda, N. L. Mai

Optimising the throughput of a mining network comprising all equipment from shovels to semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) mills is a complicated task, yet the potential benefits can be significant. Key modelling challenges stem from the sheer number of possible routes which material can travel, different equipment operating under different constraints, and the rate of SAG mills being calculated through a nonlinear function of the blended materials’ rock attributes. Nevertheless, this is an ideal onapplication area of mathematical programming, a branch of operations research. This paper describes an application of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) to optimise the mining equipment network of one of the world’s largest copper mines.The model takes as input a year-long monthly mine schedule of shovels in different pits, pushbacks, sequences and faces which produce material to be moved through a network of crushers, conveyors, silos, distributors, stockpiles and SAG mills, ultimately outputting a daily operational plan for all equipment that maximises the throughput of the network. All operational constraints and business rules are considered, including three quality attributes of copper ore. Comparing model results with actual data shows an improvement of 4.47% in network throughput tonnage. Additionally, although the model is solved using a free, open-source solver, optimal solutions are still achieved within a practical timeframe.

Sep 1, 2021

By E. H. Burroughs

Persons interested in th_e study of petroleum and allied substances have long felt the need of a bibliographic index to the literature. This bibliography, which is intended to be the first elf a yearly series, has been compiled by the petroleum division of the Bureau of Mines with a view to satisfying this need. The references include only the more noteworthy writings that appeared during the year 191.5 in both ·the United States and foreign countries. Only patents plainly applicable to the industries in point have been included, although, of course, a close scrutiny of the great volume of patent literature might reveal many other patents of possible value. The references are arranged according to the subject classification on pages 3 to 11. This classification, which is to be followed in the succeeding bibliographies of this series, is offered as a guide for further study and classification of the pertinent literature.

Jan 1, 1918

By John D. Ridge

Here are summarized 162 papers, published between 1933 and 1967, that deal with various aspects of ore genesis. Emphasis is placed on additions to, or modifications of, ore-formation theory, no matter what type of deposit is discussed. More space is given to papers on the formation of base-metal sulfides solely because more papers are written on this subject. The final conclusion is reached that a chemically and geologically sound theory for the genesis of ore deposits can be built around the concept of concentration of ore e’ements in a magmatically produced ore fluid and around such surface processes as may act to concentrate economically valuable materials from rocks of any origin exposed at the surface.

Jan 1, 1968

By J. W. Allen

This report reviews the work performed on Task M of Bu-Mines Contract H0220073 to develop an engineering model of a surface and subsurface communications system for normal mine operations and for post disaster rescue operations. The system concept provides for one-way transmission of digital information between a number of identifiable subsurface terminals or subcenters and a single surface station. It also provides 2-way voice communications between the subcenters and the surface station. The basic communications link is electromagnetic signaling through-the-earth, but the system is also capable of using mine phone lines as an alternate link. Engineering models of three subcenters and one surface terminal (see Figure 1-1) have been fabricated in order to demonstrate the system's performance. The system concept, however, permits up to 20 subcenters to be incorporated if desired. Additional subcenters are also feasible for large mines if they can be deployed in the mine to operate on a noninterfering basis.

Jan 1, 1973

By David Bendersky

The principal objectives of this study are to: (1) survey electrical practices in metal and non-metal mines, (2) survey electrical practices in metal and non-metal mills, (3) clarify the federal regulations governing electrical practices in metal and non-metal mines/mills, (4) analyze electrical accidents, and (5) make recommendations aimed at improvement of the safety of electrical practices in metal and non-metal mines. Information was obtained from literature searches, accident reports, visits to 27 mines and 12 mills, and discussions with knowledgeable industry and government people. The various electrical power systems and practices at the mines and mills visited are described. Similarities and differences based on the type of mining and the minerals being mined or milled are presented. The federal regulations governing metal/non-metal mine/mill electrical practices (Code of Federal Regulations, Title 30, Sections 55.12, 56.12, and 57.12) are presented and discussed. Explanations of each regulation are provided in an appendix. The attitudes of mine/mill operators towards the federal regulations are described. An analysis of the electrical accidents in metal/non-metal mines and mills during the period 1972-1978 is presented. Recommendations, including specific research and development activities, aimed at improvement of electrical safety in metal/non-metal mines are submitted.

Jan 1, 1980

By R. Luchese de Moraes, J. A. Matthews, C. Feliciano Bruzual

The role of biomass char in blast furnaces has been re-examined by scientists worldwide, as a feasible option to reduce the carbon intensity of ironmaking. This contribution makes a technical and economic analysis of the ferro gusa industry in Brazil, with the last 172 charcoal-Blast Furnaces operating in the world. A key strategic question is presented: what is the current status and future prospects of biomass use in Blast Furnaces? Findings provide significant implications to metallurgists: while ferro gusa from charcoal is regarded as carbon neutral iron with low impurities, there are limiting factors that hinder the further proliferation of charcoal-BFs: biomass generation requires vast extensions of arable land and aggregates have low production capacity. Additionally, most of the charcoal is presently generated in beehive kilns with low yields. These elements combined make charcoal-hot metal expensive in price. With respect to the future prospects of biomass, the injection of small biochar particles through the PCI rigs in BFs (here coined Bio-PCI) and iron ore sintering may offer a practical alternative to significantly reduce the CO2 emissions in the ironmaking process.

Jan 1, 2015

By K. C. Dean

Discarded automobiles represent the greatest single resource of reusable metals, plastics, and rubber in the United States. This report presents results of Bureau of Mines research, conducted from 1965 to 1983, on separating and recovering useful materials from the scrapped hulks, using old and new metallurgical techniques combined with standard scrapyard methods. The Bureau determined the materials composition of three composite cars designated as circa 1960, mid-1970's, and early 1980's, and used these cars to study smokeless incineration and hand-sorting techniques. In studies on treating rejects from automobile shredders, the Bureau designed a process that included air classification, water elutriation, magnetic separation, handpicking, and heavy-medium separation, and also investigated cryogenics and liquation. Complete recovery of cop-per and other metals was economically made by hand and tool dismantling, leaching, or selective melting of starters and generators. Techniques are also discussed for plastic recovery and waste tire treatment.

Jan 1, 1985

By Sandra K. Zacharias

Brass, a deliberate alloy of copper and zinc, has been known since before Roman times. There are two main methods of making brass: (1) Cementation or calamine process - crushed zinc ore (calamine, ZnC03 , or calcined calamine, ZnO), is mixed with charcoal and small pieces of metallic copper and heated to about 900°C in a closed crucible, (2) Alloying - metallic copper and zinc are melted together in a reverberatory furnace. According to most modern authorities (e.g. Smith and Forbes 1955), the calamine process was the only one used in western Europe prior to the 18th century. At that time, the alloying technique began to take over, because metallic zinc was successfully produced on a large scale for the first time. Previously, this had been a problem because zinc vapourizes at 906°C or about the same temperature at which it can be reduced from its ore. Thus, some means had to be devised to collect and condense the zinc vapour (Tylecote 1976). Metallic zinc was known, however, earlier than the 18th century A.O. Several early finds have been made, including a rolled sheet of metallic zinc found in excavations at the Athens Agora dating to the 3rd to 2nd century B. C. (Farnsworth et al. 1949). The Chinese were producing zinc by at least the 10th century A. D. and, by the 17th century, Chinese zinc ingots were being imported into Europe by the Dutch East India Company (Needham 1974). Metallic zinc is also mentioned in several European documentary sources from the 16th century (e.g. Paracelsus, Agricola). This study traces the changes in Western brass making methods from Classical to Renaissance times by examining documentary and archaeological evidence.

Jan 1, 1999

By Joey Hoang, Robert Johansson, Tapani Keronen, Mikael Jåfs, Jani Jansson, Mikko Korpi

At the Copper 2016 conference in Kobe, Japan, Outotec introduced a vision for the year 2020, wherein smelting would make use of four digital cornerstones: intelligent instruments, advanced process control, improved information management and transparency of and access to data. Since then, this vision coined the phrase “Fully Automated Smelter” with the mission promising a concept where no manual actions from human operators would be needed during normal smelter operations. Replacing repetitive physical work, collection and analysis of everyday production data has a great potential for further automation and will provide productive ways to improve efficiency and safety of smelters in the future. Therefore, a lot of emphasis has been put into developing solutions to automate these tasks and to move people out of harm’s way. A lot of new equipment, systems and optimization tools are under development. In addition, a lot of effort is going into developing dynamic process models and advanced control systems to interface with the plant automation systems. The goal is to integrate all these concepts to meet Outotec’s Fully Automated Smelter vision. This paper will cover these latest achievements toward this vision and introduce the near-future of digital smelting. INTRODUCTION As is well known already, the humankind is currently experiencing a change, extent of which is broadly studied by the governmental, educational and industrial institutions and parties. The wellbeing and quality of life have traditionally been improved alongside the developments in industrial production, which is now about to enter its fourth revolution. Therefore, the current change is often described as fourth industrial revolution, or industry 4.0 (or industrie 4.0, as named by Acatech, 2013) and can be considered anything from small incremental development to a ground-breaking global reset that will affect everyone’s lives. Many seem to agree, that the scale of change will indeed be big, even significantly bigger than the three industrial revolutions before it (Pellini, Weyrauch, Malho & Carden, 2019; Geissbauer, Vedso & Schrauf, 2016; Jansson, Bjorklund, Lahtinen, Heinonen, Jafs & Fagerlund, 2016).

Jan 1, 2019

By Alfred Weiss

These volumes report on the study initiated by the U. S. Bureau of Mines to develop and apply a methodology to quantitatively assess the probability and potential benefits of technological innovation over the next twenty-five years. The potential was recognized for new technology to solve copper industry problems in the United States. Objectives of the study were to: (1) Develop a methodology to obtain the opinions of mineral experts about future events -their likelihood of occurrence, and, conditional on occurrence, when and to what extent they are likely to occur; (2) Identify, select, and describe potential technological innovations which would have significant impact on copper production; (3) Implement the methodology and obtain the opinions of the mineral experts regarding selected copper technologies; and (4) Analyze the expected future benefits of successful technological innovations :n the copper industry. Although individual technologies are continuously examined throughout the copper 'community', this study is the first known comprehensive forecast of future copper technology. This study is also believed to be unique 1n that it represents the consensus opinion of over sixty expert copper technologists on the expected use of innovative technology in the industry over the next 25 years. The report is contained in three volumes.

Jan 1, 1983

This appendix contains the list of equipment, their corresponding number and their specifications with the quotations from the vendors/ manufacturers who can supply this equipment. The listings are arranged by process plant areas.

Jan 1, 1979

By M. A. Schellhardt

In recent years development of instruments and equipment for determining subsurface pressures and temperatures in. gas and oil wells has made it feasible to obtain information that eras not available in the past on many gas-production problems. The material presented in this report illustrates particularly the value of subsurface-temperature data in the study of subsurface leakage from gas wells. An abnormal decline in the shut-in pressure of the Lone Star Gasoline Co. A. Jones No. 1 gas well in the southern part of the Buffalo (Tex.) field was observed during an interval when a negligible volume of gas bras being withdrawn from the reservoir. Wellhead-pressure readings indicated that the shut-in pressure of the well declined from 2,295 pounds per square inch gage on February 3, 1937, to. 1,445 on February 12, 1935. Tests conducted by engineers of the Lone Star Gas Co. suggested that the subnormal pressure gaged on February 12, 1938, probably was not caused by a head of liquid in the well.

Jan 1, 1940

By G. A. Apell

"SUMMARYThe quality of Moose Creek coal is considered superior to that of any now being produced in the Matanuska field of Alaska. In rank it is classed as roar coking high-volatile B bituminous coal.At present the Moose -Creek mines are accessible from the Glenn highway by 6 miles of well-maintained gravel road. The nearest railroad loading point is Moose Creek siding; 7 miles by road from the Buffalo mine. Palmer, 12 miles south of Buffalo mine, is the nearest town. Anchorage is 50 miles south of Palmer by road and-railroad.Core drilling and trenching by the Bureau of Mines revealed 2,375,500 short tons of coal in the Buffalo series on the Buffalo Coal Co. leasehold. Of this, 514,200 tons is considered measured coal and 489,900 tons indicated coal. Existence of deeper beds over the same length increased the tonnage of coal of all categories to 3,279,300 tons. The property has an assumed life, of 16 to 22 years, depending on the number of beds mined, based on an output of 500 tons of coal a day and 100-percent recovery. Coal from some of the beds car be marketed without washing however, a washery is necessary if all beds are mined. Beds in the Buffalo series not mined in the ""first mining"" will be irrecoverable at any later date.The Bureau of Mines completed exploration of approximately one-third of the local coal-bearing areas during 1943. Knowledge gained from this work makes it possible to investigate the rest of the area by drilling an estimated additional 5,000 foot of hole."

Dec 1, 1944

By A. E. Wraith, J. Protheroe Jones, P. J. Mackey

The world’s first copper electrorefinery started production in 1869 at Burry Port in South Wales. Built within the Pembrey Copper Works which had commenced smelting operations in 1849, the new refinery was based on principles described in the British patents issued to J.B. Elkington in 1865 and 1869. Refining principles and practices pioneered there were key to the foundation of modern electro-refining practice in what is now a dominant international industry producing over 16 Mt of electrical grade copper annually. This paper explores the background to this pioneering application of the new, early 19th century, science of “electro-metallurgy” and examines its links to the contemporary decorative electro-plating industry and to the shortcomings of 19th century fire refining. The beginnings and early years of the Pembrey electrorefinery are briefly discussed in relation to the quality, applications and pyrometallurgy of copper at the time. More than a decade would elapse before the birth of the electrical age: the Pembrey refinery may be seen as one of its vital precursors. Note: This paper was originally published as part of the Copper 2013 proceedings (A.E. Wraith, P.J. Mackey and J. (formerly R.) Protheroe Jones, “Origins of Electrorefining: Birth of the Technology and the World’s First Commercial Electro-Refinery”, paper in Electrorefining, Vol. V, Book 2, (Eds. R. Abel and C. Delgado), Cu 2013 International Conference, pp. 19-33, IIMCh, Santiago, Chile, 2013). It is reproduced here together with a new Appendix and supporting references that lists the year of commencement of the first electrolytic copper refinery by country, 1869 to 1956. It all, the year of the first electrolytic copper refinery established for 15 countries is included. These 15 countries now produce more that 70% of world refined copper (for 2018). INTRODUCTION In the 1840s, the new science of ‘electro-metallurgy’, a term coined by Smee in 1841 (Smee, 1841), was being adapted to the decorative electro-deposition of silver in a thin, bright adherent coating that was evidently equal in appearance to traditional silverware (Williams, 1976). Chief among innovative manufacturers of decorative objects who took up the new art of silver electro-plating was the acclaimed firm of G.R. Elkington and Co. of Birmingham, England. The company, which vigorously developed all aspects of electro-metallurgy for the decorative trade, entered the field of ‘electrotyping’, a technique in which the surface features of a mould are copied on an electro-deposited copper layer which, when stripped off, can be used to reproduce an imprint of the mould. In essence, it is a form of casting by electrodeposition, invented in 1837 independently by Jacobi in Russia (Pavlova, 1968) and Spencer in England (Wyatt, 1851).

Jan 1, 2019

By P. Sarnoff

Gold has always been a crisis investment. For centuries gold has been considered globally the money of last resort. In time of war, inflation, financial uncertainty, political upheaval there has with few exceptions always been a flight to gold. The gold paradox simply is that even though we have gone through for the past handful of years all the kinds of. anxieties that would cause the gold price to rise, it has instead dropped drastically. Figure 1. illustrates the important factors that influenced the gold price significantly up or down before 1987. Obviously, since then, even though we have had wars, inflation, financial problems involving breaking banks and thrifts let alone collapsing financial institutions, the gold price has both in the long-term and the short-term trended downwards. Figure 2. depicts the gold price path since 1987. If the presence of time-honored and time-tested factors that should have driven the gold price up didn't do the job, then logic dictates that new factors to drive the gold price down and keep it depressed arose. And they did. But before addressing these depressants permit me to turn to the arcane art of gold price prediction and fore-casting.

Jan 1, 1992