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By S. E. Phillipson

The Mine Safety and Health Administration?s (MSHA) Roof Control Division (RCD) collects a variety of geological and engineering information pertaining to mining conditions in surface and underground mines throughout the United States. Recently, lineament analyses, trends of geologic structures, and inferred stress directions based on mapping at mines with problematic ground conditions, have been integrated into a GIS. The incorporation of different kinds of information into the same geographic coordinates and map projection, placed on digital geologic maps, allows site specific data to be evaluated in a regional geospatial context, identifying trends in the orientation of horizontal stress or patterns of structural geologic features. As more information is collected, the GIS will evolve as a tool for district- and basin-wide evaluations of controls on ground instability, and may evolve into a predictive tool for some kinds of geologic hazards. In addition to the geologic and geotechnical evaluations, the GIS also serves as a searchable database of previous mine investigations. The database can be searched for a variety of criteria, and the results displayed in real geographic coordinates to find the locations of previously visited mines or to evaluate mine fatality and injury data. This not only allows old reports to be found, but also places the information in a geospatial context with respect to neighboring mines or geographic areas. The GIS also has the capability to serve as a digital mine map repository, where maps can be stored in digital, georeferenced format for display in relation to each other and various themes of interest. This allows evaluation of multiple seam mining interactions and proximity to other mines, and on a national level could serve as an abandoned mine map database.

Jan 1, 2008

By E. Nickel

"Bi- and multilateral banks as well as export credit agencies in the OECD countries, but also numerous commercial banks, last year committed themselves to compliance with the World Bank’s standards. These environmental and social guidelines, also known as the Safeguard Policies, are the strictest international standards in the area of financing of major investment projects. The Safeguard Policies are procedural and quality guidelines by means of which socially and environmentally relevant impacts can be taken into account in the planning and implementation phase of a project. Objectives of the Bank Safeguard Policies are to ensure that environmental and social issues are evaluated in decision-making, to reduce and manage risk of projects and programs, and to provide a mechanism for consultation and disclosure of information. They are often referred to as the "10+1 Safeguard Policies," since ten of the guidelines address environmentally and socially relevant issues, while one guideline is exclusively concerned with public participation ("Public Disclosure"). In the presentation, the transparency of risk management measures and emergency response plans in pipeline projects will be discussed as an indicator of sustainability. The discussion is to be carried out on the basis of the results of an evaluation of several major pipeline projects, which have been financed at least in part by multilateral banks over the past few years. The controversies surrounding some of these projects due environmentally and socially relevant impairments connected with the investments have also been addressed by the Extractive Industry Report of the World Bank. Pipeline construction was the investment type chosen for the examination to be presented here, since pipelines frequently start in remote, unspoiled regions, and their routes often cross various natural zones and areas with various social structures. The question of safety during construction and operation of the line is always central to these projects; not only for the responsible authorities but also for other societal groups involved, such as environmental associations."

Jan 1, 2005

Remote methane detection State and federal regulations require frequent measurements to verify that safe methane levels are maintained in underground coal mines. Ventilation control is the primary means of maintaining safe methane levels. In the immediate face area, where the highest methane levels occur, methane measurements are required every 20 minutes during active mining. To perform these measurements, temporary roof supports must be erected. This allows a miner to reach the face. There a hand-held methanometer is used to make the measurements. This procedure is time consuming and potentially hazardous. To facilitate the measuring process and reduce the miner's exposure to roof falls, the US Bureau of Mines has developed a prototype optical device. It can measure methane remotely from distances up to 12 m (40 ft). The device uses two infrared signals, reflected from the coal face, rib, or roof. One signal is absorbed by the methane, the other is not. The ratio of the two signals determines the average methane concentration in the face area. The prototype detector has also been successfully tested at the Lake Lynn, PA Laboratory. Instantaneous responses were obtained for methane in the ventilation airflow and for methane layered near the roof. Conventional methanometers required from five to 25 seconds to respond to the methane in the ventilation airflow. They did not respond to methane in the roof layer. For more information about the Bureau of Mines' remote detection research, contact Richard W. Watson, US Bureau of Mines, Pittsburgh Research Center, Box 18070, Cochrans Mill Road, Pittsburgh, PA 15236 or call (412) 892-6630. Ignition suppression system The incidence has increased of fractional spark ignition at the mine face. One reason is the advent of mechanical mining. Another is the more difficult ventilation conditions associated with deeper and more extensive underground workings. To cope with the problem of frictional ignition, the Bureau of Mines initiated research to develop a system that would provide rapid detection of incipient methane-air ignition. Then, rapid dispersion of a quenching agent would ensure that the methane flame was extinguished while it was still relatively small. This concept was successfully demonstrated by suppressing explosions in the Bureau's Bruceton, PA experimental mine. But the bulkiness of the early storage-dispersal system proved impractical to retrofit onto face equipment. In a cooperative effort by the Bureau and the Mine Safety and Health Administration, a more compact system has been developed and is being tested. A continuous mining machine has been equipped with four 1.8-m-long (6-ft-long) and two

Jan 9, 1987

By A. Supomo, A. Partanen, M. Mular

Although many SAG operators may agree that on-line measurement of SAG feed-size is an attractive notion, applying this information in a control strategy that recovers the investment, engineering time, and maintenance is not necessarily straightforward. The P. T. Freeport Split-Online system was justified based on the assumption that SAG feed-size could be used in a feed-forward control strategy either at the regulatory or expert system control level. Something like “as the feed size changes adjust the throughput to avoid under or overloading the mill” was envisioned. However, following installation and calibration, Cluster Analysis showed that such an approach would not be successful. However, the sensor has been successfully integrated into Freeport’s grinding control strategy other ways. It provides an input to the Kalman filter parameter estimator used in a model-based control strategy that optimizes throughput and grind. The Split sensor also provides a characteristic feed size parameter for use in an on-line work index estimator. This paper describes the calibration and installation of the Split SAG feed-size analyzer, and reviews the evolution of its use in the Freeport C3 grinding circuit control strategy.

Jan 1, 2001

By James D. Nickerson

Thee Brightwater water treatment facilities, currently scheduled to be completed in 2010 and begin operating in 2011, will serve the northern part of King County, WA. The facility includes a new treatment plant and extensive conveyance system consisting of more than 21 km (13 miles) of influent and effluent conveyance tunnels and five portals. The majority of the conveyance system tunnels are mined by tunnel boring machines (TBM) and microtunnel boring machines (MTBM). Tunnel and portal construction is divided into three main contracts. The Ballinger Way receiving portal, constructed under the central tunnel contract, is the terminus for the BT-3 leg of the central contract and the BT-4 terminus of the west contract. The shaft has a 7.3-m (24-ft) finished inside diameter (ID) to accommodate removal of the central project TBM and the west contract TBM and extends to a depth of 66 m (216 ft) below grade through a complex and challenging soil profile characterized by multiple ground water tables. Vinci Grand Projects/Parsons/Frontier-Kemper Constructors (VCFK) was the joint venture team for the Ballinger Way portal. Frontier-Kemper was responsible for the shaft sinking. VCFK evaluated either slurry wall techniques or ground freezing for earth support during excavation of the portal and liner installation. The selection process took into account the vertical depth, cost, past practice, geology, water tables and a 9-m- (30-ft-) thick zone of contaminated soil at the top of the shaft. Ground freezing, which would also act as a hydraulic barrier, was deemed the better option for this project. The contract was awarded to New Jersey-based geotechnical contractor Moretrench. Typically, frozen walls, by design, key into an underlying cutoff. At the Ballinger Way portal, however, the [ ] freeze bottomed out in a substantially thick stratum consisting of predominantly clay, but with some inclusions of permeable soil that indicated significant ground water pressures. To ensure stable conditions at the bottom of the shaft, Moretrench, which also specializes in dewatering, designed and installed a perimeter array of deep wells to temporarily depressurize the permeable soils. The movement of ground water generated by pressure

Jan 1, 2009

By J. L. Bellanca, L. R. Swanson

DISCLAIMER The findings and conclusions in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Mention of any company or product does not constitute endorsement by NIOSH. ABSTRACT Proximity detection systems (PDSs) for mobile machines have the potential to decrease injuries and fatalities. Early adopters of the technology have identified some challenges, which presents an opportunity to explore and improve the integration of mobile PDSs in underground coal mines. The current study applied the task-technology fit framework to investigate the fit between mobile PDS technology and mining relative to health and safety, from the perspective of leaders at two coal mines. Quantitative results from the study show that mine leaders evaluated mobile PDS favorably for training and ease of use, system feedback, user authorization and experience, and less favorably for safety, compatibility, task completion, and reliability. Qualitative results reveal specific task, mine, and system characteristics that may have influenced leaders' evaluations. The study includes considerations for safe technology integration. INTRODUCTION Striking, pinning, and crushing accidents related to mobile machines continue to be a major concern in underground coal mining. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) linked 22 of the 75 underground mine fatalities reported between 2011 and 2015 to power haulage [1]. The Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) asserts that proximity detection systems for mobile machines (mobile PDSs) could help to prevent these types of fatal injuries [2]. Mobile PDSs use a collision avoidance technology that allows the mine to establish hazard zones and employ electromagnetic sensors to detect workers equipped with a miner-wearable component (MWC) working near these mining machines. The authors characterize a mobile PDS as an automated technology, because—in line with Lee & See’s [3] definition of automation—a mobile PDS actively “selects data, transforms information, makes decisions, or controls processes” (p. 50). When the system detects workers in the established hazard zones, it issues alerts and slows or stops the mobile machine. Even though a mobile PDS may be a viable and promising safety solution, there are still a number of questions regarding how well this automated technology will fit with mining tasks and conditions. Using a mixed-methods approach, the current study explored factors that influence the fit of mobile PDSs in the underground mining environment.

Jan 1, 2019

By Fritz Grübl

Modern shield TBMs allow tunnel drives through almost any type of ground. Thanks to high elaborated technical measures, significant subsidence of the ground surface can be almost entirely avoided. The tunnel lining behind the TBM must be capable of withstanding all loads without deforming, especially during ring erection and advance. Single-shell tunnel linings behind the TBM, usually reinforced concrete segmental rings, can be designed to fulfill this demand. With many projects, however, damage occurs to the lining. Repair costs may be extremely high. Reasons for damages and possibilities to avoid them are shown and explained.

Jan 1, 2001

By Christopher J. Bise

INTRODUCTION A mine's power system represents the driving force behind all of the extraction and auxiliary operations, because the production and transportation of mined material and the operation of equipment, such as fans and pumps, are all dependent upon a power source. Once, compressed air was the primary power source in mining; today, however, electrical power dominates. This chapter reviews the basic theories of com- pressed-air and electrical power and provides several examples of applications in mine power systems. COMPRESSED-AIR POWER General Compressed air has been, and should continue to be, an important source of power in mining operations. It has been used as a means of blasting coal in conventional mining and is widely used to operate stopers, mucking machines, and other air tools in both coal and hard-rock mines. Such applications demonstrate the suitability of compressed air for applications requiring linear motion, but it is also utilized for its reliability and safety. A compressed-air system is composed of a compressor, a receiver, a distribution network, and the air-operated machines. A compressor takes in air at normal atmospheric pressure (free air) and compresses it to a higher discharge pressure. The discharge pressure must be high enough to overcome the friction in the distribution system of pipes and hoses and deliver the compressed air to the machines at the pressure recommended by the manufacturer. The most common type of compressor used in mines is the reciprocating compressor in which the air is compressed by a piston in a cylinder. An air receiver is a container or storage tank that is located in the distribution system between the compressor and the machines. It stores compressed air, when the full capacity of the compressor is not being used, and gives a more steady flow of air to the machines. The distribution network consists of pipes, Oalves, elbows, tees, and hoses that transmit the compressed air from the receiver to the machines in the mine. It is essential that the distribution system be designed with the proper sizes and lengths of pipe, hose, and other components to keep pressure losses well within allowable limits. The air-operated machines consist primarily of drifters, stopers, pluggers (sinkers), slushers, and several other pieces of equipment. Compressor Operation Every compressor is made up of one or more basic elements; a single element, or a group of elements in parallel, comprises a single-stage compressor. Many compression problems involve conditions beyond the practical capability of a single compression stage. Too great a compression ratio (absolute discharge pressure divided by absolute intake pressure) may cause excessive discharge temperatures or other design problems. It, therefore, may become necessary to combine elements or groups of elements in series to form a multi- stage unit, in which there will be two or more steps of compression. The number of stages commonly used in reciprocating compressors is as follows: Pressure Number of stages 0- 150 pig 1 80- 500 psig 2 500-2500 psig 3 2500-5000 psig 4 When pressure is referred to as pounds per square inch gage (psig), it means the pressure (in pounds per square inch) above barometric pressure as measured by a gage. The sum of barometric pressure and gage pressure is the absolute pressure (in pounds per square inch). The gas is frequently cooled between stages to reduce the temperature and volume entering the subsequent stages, thereby reducing the work required for compression. The basic reciprocating compression element is a single cylinder compressing on only one side of the piston (single-acting). A unit compressing on both sides of the piston (double-acting) consists of two basic single-acting elements operating in parallel in one casing. The reciprocating compressor uses automatic spring-loaded valves that open only when the proper differential pressure exists across the valves. Intake valves open when the pressure in the cylinder is slightly below the intake pressure. Discharge valves open when the pressure in the cylinder is slightly above the discharge pressure. In Fig. 1, Diagram A shows the basic element with the cylinder filled with air at atmospheric pressure. On the corresponding theoretical pressure-volume

Jan 1, 1986

By K. E. Wood, K. J. DiRocco, L. A. Becker

The Russia Wharf segment of the Silver Line Phase II Project for the MBTA incorporated ground freezing and underpinning during New Austrian Tunneling Method(NATM) tunneling through timber pile foundations, urban fill, and abandoned wharf structures beneath two historic 7-story buildings with steel frames and masonry facades. During construction, the project team implemented an extensive program to monitor, evaluate, and mitigate the ground and building movements caused by the various construction activities. Mitigation included freeze cycling and building raising/lowering to compensate for ground movements and safely maintain the serviceability and occupancy of the buildings. In this paper, we present the history of the freeze, tunnel construction, and thaw-related movements that occurred and the building response that we observed.

Jan 1, 2005

By Douglas Banks

Construction for the new 2.5 MGPD raw water intake project commenced December 2002. The project, initially designed as a 12' Ø concrete lined intake shaft,145' deep, with two offset 24" lake taps, 520' and 470' long was subsequently “value engineered” running the two lake taps through a single conduit. The offset for summer and winter pools was accomplished via a second shaft located at the lakes edge. Construction involved the use of blind drilling techniques for the shaft development and drill and blast techniques for the tunneling. All works were completed through extremely hard crystallized sandstone. The project came online August 12, 2004.

Jan 1, 2005

Paper 1: Risk of gastrointestinal cancers from inhalation and ingestion of asbestos, John F. Gamble Selikoff suggested the hypothesis that asbestos exposure is causally associated with increased risk of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers in an early study of insulation workers. In this paper, John Gamble reports on his extensive review and reanalysis studies that address the relationship between asbestos exposure and GI cancers. The purpose of the review was to evaluate the association between asbestos exposure and risks of stomach, colorectal, colon, and rectal cancers separately. Gamble evaluated exposure?response (E?R) relationships using surrogate exposure methods ??because few individual studies of GI cancer have reported exposure? response analyses.?? The principal asbestos exposure surrogates are: (1) the rate ratio (RR) for lung cancer; and (2) the percent of mesothelioma among exposed workers. Analyzing SMRs for GI cancers from individual studies versus the risk of lung cancer and mesothelioma provides crude estimates of E?Rs for asbestos exposure and GI cancer. Briefly, Gamble justifies the surrogate approach as follows:

Jan 1, 2007

By N. Niemuth

Strong demand for copper in developing nations such as China and India, plus the additional demand for industrial minerals to supply the Arizona construction market, brought about a record-setting year for the state?s mining industry. The value of Arizona?s copper production set a new high of $5.5 billion and pushed the total value of mineral production to $7.58 billion. This was also a record. As it has for many years, Arizona ranked first in nonfuel mineral production in the U.S. In addition to leading the nation in copper, Arizona ranked in the top five in molybdenum, sand and gravel, gemstones, perlite, silver, zeolites and pumice. Generally strong and rising prices, especially toward year?s end, fostered a bullish atmosphere that encouraged significant levels of acquisition and exploration. This activity has spread beyond the normal commodities to include some, such as manganese and fluorspar, that have not been mined in Arizona for decades.

Jan 1, 2008

By Ravi Ray, Kostas Kaklis, Zach Agioutantis

"Modern underground mining is becoming more complex and geotechnically challenging. The engineer uses numerical, analytical, and data-driven methods (empirical and/or experimental) or their combination to overcome these challenges. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. Nevertheless, given the amount of innovation and experience involved in developing each of these techniques, it will be prudent to use all their benefits rather than favoring one technique over the other. Pillars are the most important support element in an underground mine. A holistic geo-mechanical solution needs to be determined to design mine pillars using a proper sequence and exact mix of the three methods. A combination of these methods, in sync, can encompass the several advantages of the three methods while eliminating their disadvantages. This paper presents a conceptual three-tier solution to the pillar design problem, to improve its design pedigree, using a proper combination of numerical, analytical, and data-driven methods. At the focus of this proposed method lies the Ground Reaction Curve (GRC) concept.INTRODUCTIONAlthough the stability analysis of underground excavations is a challenging problem, its understanding has improved tremendously over recent years through the use of improved tools and techniques. The trial and error method was replaced with more scientific methods like the empirical and analytical methods that are still in use today. Empirical methods were developed based on large data sets obtained from experiments and observations (e.g., coal pillar strength equations). Analytical methods were developed based on mechanical understanding of stability (e.g., safety factor for vertical pillar loading, Convergence Confinement Method). Improvement in computing power and numerical techniques led to the development of several numerical methods (e.g., finite difference, finite element) suitable for geo-mechanical analysis.Each of these methods have certain advantages and limitations. Nevertheless, the user is often puzzled over the proper method selection and over the proper sequence of using them. This exercise becomes more challenging when different methods are combined, where, for example, one has to estimate the pillar strength based on empirical equations (e.g., Mark-Bieniawski coal pillar strength equation), determine the factor of safety based on an analytical approach (e.g., tributary area load divided by pillar strength), and analyze pillar-strata interactions using numerical analysis (see Esterhuizen, Mark, and Murphy, 2010b).Challenges increase when current pillar design methods are designed as passive structures to balance the fixed dead weight of the overburden. This classic suspension design approach does not recognize the self-stabilizing capacity of the overburden (Frith and Reed, 2018). A practical solution to address these issues is the use of numerical analysis. However, one should always keep in mind that the numerical modelling approach may have certain practical limitations."

Jan 1, 2019

By S. C. Langvik

The presentation named 'Dewatering of fines by Rotary Vacuum Disc Filters' has an opening why the filtration process is important to the Iron Ore Industry. It goes on to describe the various types of dewatering machines which have been used in this industry in the last 30-40 years, and where the vacuum disc filters now dominates. It presents also the most important design changes which have been made during this period to enhance performance. Further are discussed the principles of filtration and the factors and parameters which influence performance and operating costs. As a closing is presented today's ideas and thoughts about what can be foreseen of design modifications and improvements in disc filter design in the coming ten years.

Jan 1, 2001

By G. Deschênes

Following a successful investigation on the Central Zone sample, a cyanidation study was conducted on an ore sample from the AD-MW Zone of Clarence Stream Property, owned by Freewest Resources Canada, to develop a leaching strategy to extract gold. At a grade of 6.48 g/t, gold is present in the forms of aurostibite, free gold and electrum. The ore contains 4.3% berthierite/gudmundite, 1.3% pyrrhotite, 0.7% pyrite, 0.07% stibnite and 0.9% arsenopyrite. Similar to the Central Zone, the extraction of gold from the AD-MW Zone can be performed at atmospheric pressure, pH 10.5 and with a low concentration of cyanide. The grind size had no effect on gold extraction between a P80 of 28 to 71 µm. The oxygen and cyanide requirement significantly increased with a ?ner grind. Consequently, a very close control of cyanide addition is required to minimize passivation of gold. Lead nitrate, added in the pretreatment, increased the extraction of gold by 2.3%. Leaching at pH < 10 improved gold extraction but increased the cyanide consumption by 5%. Passivation of gold occurred when the pretreatment was longer than 2 hours. A longer pretreatment reduced the cyanide consumption by 5%. Mineralogical characterization of the leach residue with no gravity pretreatment prior to leaching indicated the presence of unleached gold grains and passivated gold grains. Removal of coarse gold by gravity increased the extraction by 2.8% (leach residue at 0.74 g/t Au). Increasing the DO to 16 ppm or the lead nitrate from 500 to 1,000 g/t increased the overall gold extraction to 90.4% (leach residue at 0.62 g/t), which is the maximum gold extraction obtained. The leaching parameters were 800 ppm NaCN, DO 16 ppm and pH 10.5 for a duration of 120 hours. The associated cyanide consumption was 4.0 kg/t. Gold leaching was not sensitive to cyanide concentration. Reducing the cyanide concentration to 250 ppm resulted in a gold extraction of 89.5% with a cyanide consumption of 2.6 kg/t.

Jan 1, 2009

By Sigurd L. Lamhauge, Karl Gunnar Holter, Svein E. Kristiansen

An innovative sprayable waterproofing membrane in combination with the traditional Nordic method of waterproofing with polyethylene foam sheets was used for the waterproofing of the tunnel. The sprayable membrane was integrated in the final sprayed concrete lining in a sandwich structure, hence constituting a composite water-proof lining based on sprayed concrete. The spray able membrane was applied in areas with small to moderate water ingresses, making up approximately 50% of the total area requiring waterproofing in the tunnel. State-of-the-art application technology with a computerized spraying robot was used. A consistent application of the required thickness at a high speed was thereby achieved.

Jan 1, 2007

By E. Sun

Tailings disposal is a significant consideration for the mining industry, with the majority of the ore processed in most mining operations ending up as tailings. Several tailings dam failure accidents have occurred during the past few years and mine tailings dam failures are occurring at relatively high rates. Tailings dam failure is disastrous with the serious damage and the loss of lives. To increase the tailings dam safety, a tailings dam monitoring and pre-alarm system (TDMPAS) based on the internet of things and cloud computing platform has been accomplished with the abilities of real-time monitoring of the saturated line, impounded water level, rain fall and the dam deformations etc. The TDMPAS has been applied in several mines in China and helped the mine engineers monitor the tailings dam safety and get warning information automatically and remotely in any kind of weather conditions. This work has been demonstrated the tailings dam monitoring and pre-alarm system (TDMPAS) is meaningful to monitor the tailings dam physical safety condition. The TDMPAS could be applied to monitor all the national tailings dams online in the future.

Jan 1, 2012

By Congling Shi, Marek Borowski, Yue Wang, Jianwei Cheng, Xixi Zhang, Xuan Xu

As the first barrier to prevent accidents caused by explosions in underground coal mines, the integrity and stability of mine seals have great effects on mine workers’ lives and underground production safety. In this paper, the mechanical responding performance of typical mine seals under the impact load are studied by using numerical simulation method. By such simulation studies, the safety of different seals subjected to the explosion load is evaluated. Seals’stability are also investigated under effects caused by various influence factors including thickness of mine seal, cutting depth into surrounding rocks, rock type, and the roof-tofloor convergence under given the explosion load. The research results can provide theoretical basis and reasonable improvements for mine seal’s construction practices for improving its anti-explosion performance.

By Congling Shi, Marek Borowski, Yue Wang, Jianwei Cheng, Xixi Zhang, Xuan Xu

As the first barrier to prevent accidents caused by explosions in underground coal mines, the integrity and stability of mine seals have great effects on mine workers’ lives and underground production safety. In this paper, the mechanical responding performance of typical mine seals under the impact load are studied by using numerical simulation method. By such simulation studies, the safety of different seals subjected to the explosion load is evaluated. Seals’stability are also investigated under effects caused by various influence factors including thickness of mine seal, cutting depth into surrounding rocks, rock type, and the roof-tofloor convergence under given the explosion load. The research results can provide theoretical basis and reasonable improvements for mine seal’s construction practices for improving its anti-explosion performance.

By J. Bertisen, G. Davis

Previous analyses of small samples of mining projects have found that feasibility studies tend to well under-estimate the actual capital costs of the project. Our review of 63 mining and smelting projects completed over 4 decades confirms that as-built capital costs are, on average, 25% higher than as estimated at the bankable feasibility study stage. There appears to be little attenuation over time of this bias in capital cost estimation, at first appearing to reflect an absence of learning on the part of the consulting engineer. We instead argue that this persistence of bias is intentional, driven by a scarcity of project financing and the need to inflate the project economics in a bid to secure financing. Around this intentional bias is a considerable amount of scatter. Roughly half of all projects’ as-built capita costs fall outside of the expected ±15% of the feasibility study capital cost estimate, even after allowing for intentional estimation bias. Cost overruns of 100% or more happen in roughly 1 out of 13 projects. The data reveal that a shifted lognormal probability distribution should be used when modeling mining project capital costs in a Monte Carlo analysis.

Jan 1, 2007