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By Brock Morrison, Bernt Ling

"The Kiruna Electric System is an all electric ramp haulage system developed for underground mining. This electric truck haulage system is currently operating on three continents. This paper will review the technology of the system, existing installations as well as the economical benefits to the mining industry. The system was designed and developed to extend and exploit the economical advantages of ramp haulage. Performance information is provided. IntroductionThe Kiruna Electric System has been the subject of a number of technical papers over the past sever al years. During that period, the content of the presentations has changed from concept and theory to prototype testing to description of installed and operating systems.The intent of this paper is threefold:1. to present a brief review of the technical features of the Kiruna Electric Systems;2. to review the existing installations with performance data; and3. to provide a description of on-going developments within the Kiruna Electric Program during 1991.The Kiruna Electric is a high capacity ramp haulage system for underground mining operations due to an All-Electric Drive System, including two heavy duty electric traction motors. The high capacity of the K1050E results from three factors:• payload - 50 tonne• speed - 18 km/hr to 20 km/hr up a IS0J0 ramp (total resistance)• availability - over 90010 during a 12-month period"

Jan 1, 1991

By H. H. Wang

Construction safety documents regulate significant safety actions and requirements by which construction workers or employees should abide in order to secure them from occupational hazard events. Therefore, facilitating faster identification of applicable safety requirements from the documents has become an important topic in the construction safety domain. To address the need in this regard, tools and techniques have been developed and research efforts have been made. One of the research efforts is to utilize ontology, a knowledge representation and reasoning approach, as the methodology to achieve the goal of identifying applicable safety requirements. In such ontology-based researches, the development and construction of the safety concept ontology is an essential task as the concepts and the relationships between the concepts both representing key safety knowledge need to be carefully identified. In this paper, the author focuses on the safety documents without predefined concept structure and aims to address the concept and relationship identification difficulties. Specifically, the author leverages the Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) methodology, a theory of data analysis that identifies conceptual structures among data sets, to mine and analyze the documents in order to discover safety concept structure and to further assist the development of the concept ontology for the construction safety documents. The author expects the application of FCA to construction safety domain can eventually benefit the ontology-based approaches for identification of applicable safety requirements.

Aug 1, 2013

By Brian Hart, Stamen Dimov, Aparup Chattopadhyay, Barun K. Gorain

"A novel gold deportment technique has been developed for complex copper-gold and double refractory gold ores using state-of-the-art technology. Characterization of these ores is a challenging task due to low copper and gold grades in ores, presence of both primary and secondary copper sulfide phases and variable proportion of visible and invisible gold in different sulfides and iron oxide phases.Double refractory ores are mainly composed of silicates and carbonates with moderate clay and mica, and minor amounts of sulfides and organic carbonaceous matter. Gold mostly occurs as ""invisible gold"" (sub-microscopic gold) as solid solution or as colloidal-sized particles in different sulfides and other phases. The dominance of invisible gold and presence of highly preg-robbing and finely disseminated carbonaceous matter adversely affects gold recovery in flotation and leach circuits. Characterization of this carbonaceous matter, commonly known as TCM and quantification of gold associated within TCM, along with different sulfide and oxide phases is highly complex and challenging.Studies were initiated on various complex ore deposits and also on samples representing various process streams. This paper presents the development of a systematic approach to diagnostic metallurgy using state-of-the-art optical and automated mineralogy techniques, namely, micro-probe, dynamic SIMS and TOF-SIMS analysis for quantification of invisible and visible precious metal content in various species. The relevance of the mineralogy characterization to metallurgy will also be discussed in this paper."

Jan 1, 2016

By C. A. Rowland

"Plant owners and operators, plant designers and grinding mill manufacturers are giving much attention to the design and manufacture of autogenous and semi-autogenous grinding mills, particularly the mills that have large diameters and draw power up to 10,000 hp and greater. Reliable designs giving long operating lives are required in today 's ore processing plants.This paper reviews bench-scale and pilot-plant testing to determine first if the ore is suitable .to be ground by these methods and then reviews the data obtained from pilot-plant testing that is used to select the mills and the grinding circuit. The paper then discusses the use of the pilot-plant results to design the mills. The most important pilot-plant data used for mill design are power and the amount of ball charge to be used. The mill size selected is a combination of these factors. Pilot-plant data not only establish power requirements, but can be used in the selection of the type of drive, variable speed or fixed speed, and the operating procedure to be followed. This leads into the mill control circuit to be used. The total charge in the mill, the type of drive and mill discharge arrangements are needed in the calculation of stresses and bearing loads. Conclusions reached from pilot-plant work are used to obtain data for process design, and autogenous and semiautogenous mill design should be part of any test program incorporating either or both of these grinding methods."

Jan 1, 1981

By S. Brophy

Controlled Short Circuit ? Metal Inert Gas (CSC-MIG) welding is a process that can be referred as a "Cold Welding" technology. The CSC process is based on accurate control of the welding wire position, thus the mandatory requirement for the automation of the process. One of the main advantages of the CSC-MIG process is the rapid solidification of the deposited material, resulting in weldments displaying low porosity contents, and enabling the joining of thin sheet materials. These characteristics render this process an ideal one for freeforming of components, where rapid solidification would be efficacious. This presentation will focus on the progress made towards the freeforming of Al-based components in the NAIN laboratory at McGill University. The relationship between the filler metal used, freeforming (deposition) parameters, resulting microstructure and mechanical properties will be presented.

Jan 1, 2011

By M. F. Gallerneault, V. Fallah, A. Howells, W. M. T. Gallerneault

"The occurrence of recrystallization in cold-worked aluminum sheet during the brazing process leads to loss of strength, an inhomogeneous grain structure and reduced corrosion resistance. AlMgScZr alloys are known for their extraordinary recrystallization resistance due to the influence of Sc and Zr addition on their microstructure. Here, we investigate the effect of alloy composition (i.e. Mn, Mg, Sc, Zr content), cold-roll reduction and pre-aging treatment on the recrystallization behavior of cold-rolled sheets at brazing temperatures typically used during the manufacture of heat exchanger units. The analysis of recrystallization behavior is carried out through microstructural characterization and the results are compared with the behavior of a commercial, AA3xxx-based heat exchanger alloy.INTRODUCTION Control of recrystallization is of critical importance during brazing, which is a widely-used joining technique for aluminum alloys in aircraft structures (Heinz, 2000) and automotive heat exchangers (Miller, 2000; Marshall, 1993). Due to excessive local heat at brazing temperatures, the cold work texture of aluminum alloys in the cold-rolled sheets may undergo a local recrystallization process (Marshall, 1993). This leads to the formation of an inhomogeneous microstructure and thus anisotropic mechanical properties (Miller, 2000) and low corrosion resistance (Marshall, 1993) across the sheet. X800, a commonly-used Al-Mn alloy series for automotive heat exchangers applications, has been developed specifically for a higher strength as well as an enhanced corrosion resistance as opposed to the traditionally-used AA3003 alloy (Marshall, 1993). X800 alloys, however, exhibit a low recrystallization resistance at normal brazing temperatures, i.e. 590°C. In contrast, Al-Sc-Zr alloys have been shown to exhibit an extraordinary recrystallization resistance at such temperatures (Riddle, 2004) while also being corrosion resistant and possessing a high room-temperature strength (Fuller, 2002). This has been shown to be due to the formation of coherent, nanoscale Al3(ScZr) precipitates that effectively impede grain boundaries while also exhibiting very slow coarsening kinetics at high temperatures (Riddle, 2004; Jones, 2003; Ocenasek, 2001). In this study, we analyze the recrystallization behavior of X800 alloys under brazing conditions through introducing Sc and Zr into the system as well as varying the Mn and Mg content. The effect of processing route is also studied by introducing a pre-aging stabilization treatment as well as varying the cold-roll reduction prior to the final brazing anneal."

Jan 1, 2018

By R. Ghomashchi

Wear, fatigue and corrosion are the most widely encountered modes of failure in materials used in engineering applications, including aero-gas turbines. Although wear is distinctly classified as adhesive, abrasive, erosive, fretting and so on, there are usually more than one wear mechanism involved in the failure of components in service because there are many systems and materials variables active in materials wear that makes it more difficult to study. This is further complicated by the discrepancies between the results of laboratory tests and field data. The present investigation was set up to examine the wear characteristics of M50 and T1 high-speed steels at both room and elevated temperatures to draw a thorough understanding of the wear behavior of this class of high-speed steels. This article focuses on the mechanical and microstructural characterization of wear for T1 and M50 high-speed steels using a pin-on-disk wear machine.

Jan 1, 2005

By G. Shen, W. R. Tyson

In most fracture toughness test standards, such as ASTM E 1290 and BS 7448, crack-tip opening displacement (CTOD) is measured by using three-point bend (SE(B)) or compact (C(T)) samples with deep cracks. The loading mode and crack depth in these tests sometimes are different from that of pipelines. Pipelines usually have shallow defects and experience tensile loading when the supporting ground moves. As a result, the CTOD measured by these samples is lower than that of pipeline in tension. Recent researches suggest using single-edge-notch tension (SE(T)) samples to measure fracture toughness for pipelines. In the present study, shallow and deep SE(T) samples under fixed grip loading were analyzed by using the finite element technique. An equation to relate the CTOD to the area of the load/plastic crack mouth opening displacement (CMOD) is proposed. With this equation, the CTOD of a SE(T) sample can be evaluated by measuring the area under the load/plastic CMOD curve of a SE(T) sample.

Jan 1, 2005

By P. Ramirez

"To achieve an optimal metallurgical performance in the flotation process the bubble diameter should be between 0.5 and 2.5 mm. To control bubble size, frothers are added, reducing bubble size and conferring bubble stability against coalescence. However, the bubble generation mechanism determines predominantly the bubble size distribution produced. In mechanical flotation cells, bubbles are produced by the shear stress generated by a rotating blade on a gas stream. This mechanism produces a log normal bubble size distribution. In contrast, in column flotation, jetting gas injectors are commonly used in Chile and the bubble size distribution is bimodal with small and large bubbles. Bubbles larger than 2.5 mm mean a loss in surface area, while bubbles smaller than 0.5 mm move with the pulp stream and therefore collide less frequently with particles. In this paper, a new device based on a jetting sparger and a deflector disc (impinging jetting) is evaluated as an alternative sparger for column flotation.The new device was tested in a rectangular acrylic cell 1 m × 0.5 m × 3 m. High-speed cinematography was used to compare bubble generation with jetting and impinging jetting at different gas velocity in the nozzle (5–50 m/s). From the image analysis, it was observed that the deflector induces a shear stress, in analogy to a rotating blade but in this case the shear results from a high velocity gas hitting a static surface. The device was evaluated in a 0.5 m diameter 3 m high column. The McGill bubble viewer technique was used to compare the bubble size generated by jetting and impinging jetting. It was found that the Sauter mean bubble diameter reduced from 7.4 mm to 2.8 mm, when the jetting sparger was modified with the deflector. In the case of the impinging jetting sparger, 70% of the bubbles were in the effective range for flotation, while for the jetting sparger, only 10% were in the effective range."

Jan 1, 2016

"Coupon testing has been used to investigate stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of rockbolts in a laboratory based experimental program. This program has focused on the use of ASTM G39 three- and four-point bent beam coupon specimens, immersed in an acidified sodium chloride test solution containing hydrogen sulfide. The specimens were loaded to a range of stresses from zero, to just above the materials yield strength. It was found that only specimens above an applied stress of 580MPa failed by means of SCC, showing that rockbolts loaded to near their yield strength may be susceptible to SCC in-situ.INTRODUCTIONStress corrosion cracking (SCC) is a failure mechanism that affects material through the growth of hairline cracks when exposed to a corrosive medium while under stress (Jones and Ricker, 1999). SCC has been found to affect rockbolts in the Australian underground coal mining industry and has the capacity to cause the catastrophic failure of ground support systems, potentially leading to falls of ground in underground excavations, injury or death to mine personnel, damage or loss of equipment, and loss of productivity through the loss of roadway access (Crosky et al, 2002).Coupon testing utilises small scale samples that are intended to be indicative of the behaviour exhibited by a material in-situ (ASTM G39). The small scale, and usually high surface area to volume ratio of coupon specimens mean that they corrode at faster rate proportional to their mass, greatly reducing testing times. The small scale of the specimens allows them to be more easily prepared and handled, loaning them to mass manufacturing techniques.A previous study conducted by Vandermaat et al (2012b) into the use of three- and four-point coupon testing in-situ in an underground coal mine failed to result in SCC of the specimens. This paper serves as a follow up laboratory investigation in order to understand why these specimens did not fail. Previous studies into the SCC in rockbolts carried out by Gamboa and Atrens (2003) determined that rockbolt steel has a critical stress threshold of approximately 90% of the material ultimate tensile strength (800-900MPa). This study will focus on this critical stress threshold as a possible explanation for the lack of failure in the in-situ specimens (Vandermaat, 2012b)."

Jan 1, 2015

By Behzad Vaziri Hassas, Firat Karakas, Esra Tanisali, Mehmet S. Çelik, Ahmad Hassanzadeh

Coagulation is basically an aggregation process where particles settle under the influence of interfacial forces with electrostatic forces playing a governing role. Although particle morphology consisting of shape and roughness dictates the physical encounter of two particles, their eventual coagulation is not only influenced by columbic forces but also other interfacial forces such as hydrophobic interaction, which affects the extent of aggregation of particles through increasing the distance of interaction. Roughness is well known to increase the effective contact angle on hydrophobic surfaces and also enhance interfacial forces. In this study, the effect of morphology of particles and particularly roughness on the settling velocity and in turn coagulation tendency was investigated. Batch settling tests (BSTs) of different particle morphologies were investigated as a function of pH. Two different morphologies of silica particles were utilized with the same particle size distribution (PSD) including smooth-spherical and rough-spherical (Etched). Rough particles were prepared by acid etching technique using hydrofluoric (HF) at different time intervals (15-300 sec). Etched samples were identified and quantified by optic profilometry. Settling test results showed that the settling velocity of particles in a suspension of 2% solids in the massive settling region is significantly affected by particle morphology of the suspension. Coagulation results further revealed that aggregation of rough particles is faster than smooth-spherical particles. Coagulation results are elucidated on the basis of particle morphology and its effect on distance of separation through hydrophobic forces.

Jan 1, 2016

By Min-Yuan Cheng

Landslides not only cause interruption of road traffic but also cause damage to passing by vehicles and injure people in Taiwan. Due to the budget limitation of government, the overall assessments and maintenance of all road slops cannot be fulfilled. Priority of road for maintenance is a crucial task for road maintenance department to identify. The purposes of this research are to develop an assessment method for the landslide risk and to make strategies to maintain or repair the slopes along mountain roads. To aim both needs to take into account the environmental conditions of the slopes, the engineering measures for stabilizing road slopes, the transportation issues, and the human concerns when dealing with the slopes maintenance along the mountain roads. This study firstly establishes the Landslides Damage Risk Evaluation Model (LDREM) to calculate the risk of slope failure, considering the probability of landslides, temporal probability, spatial impact probability, the value of human life, transportation time increased, and travel cost due to detour etc., and then the loss of life and transportation can be calculated. Secondly, based on the value of risk and the risk evaluation, considering the risk acceptance criteria for loss of life could provide assistance for road maintenance department to determine the priority of mountain roads for maintenance.

Aug 1, 2013

By R. Binning

"Economic high density mineral reclamation and subsequent transportation of solids through a pipeline presents many formidable engineering problems.Mineral reclamation system design by theoretical formulas is almost impossible because solids composition, ie. concentration, velocity, moisture content, solid size, etc. can only be controlled within a broad pumping range.Traditionally this has restricted pumping to relatively dilute slurries whereas it is usually preferred, because of economic considerations to reclaim as high a concentration as possible.At Toyo/De-Velde Corp. we recognized these pumping limitations and began to develop and manufacture a range of standard and auxiliary equipment that would exceed these technical restrictions.MATERIAL RECLAMATION & PIPELINE INJECTIONTo minimize fluid usage and increase material reclamation efficiency we designed a submersible dredge mixing pump that uses most of its energy to pick up material from rest, mix it with fluid into a highly concentrated slurry then push it firmly into a pipeline.Where material is too compacted to be mined by the standard submersible mixer pump, auxiliary high torque self contained submersible excavators can be fitted around the periphery of the mixer pump. This is to facilitate excavation and break up of the compacted material into a slurry.High flexibility of this system can be achieved by combining the many equipment variations available into the most efficient format to fit individual site requirements.Whatever combination of equipment is selected, torque is nullified by counter rotating excavators against each other. This increases effective excavator/material bite torque but also allows mixer/excavator rig suspension by cable for deep water material recovery."

Jan 1, 1985

By Dani J. Alldrick, Alastair J. Sinclair, Colin I. Godwin

"The Stewart mining camp has a long history of precious and base metal mining. The camp is abundantly mineralized, with more than 200 widespread, varied, vein prospects, deposits and orebodies. These show wide variations in the mineralogy of ore, gangue and alteration assemblages, and wide variations in textures and structural settings. This report establishes the timing of the different metallogenic epochs and suggests a specific exploration application for systematic leadisotope analyses.Galena lead isotope ratios from a range of mineral occurrences indicate that all these varied deposits formed during two main mineralizing events. Lead isotope data from the Stewart mining camp do not provide absolute ages for the formation of mineral deposits, but the relative distributions of data are consistent with dates determined in other studies. One ore-forming episode occurred in the Early Jurassic and the other in the Middle Eocene. Both metallogenic epochs were brief, regional-scale phenomena. Some deposits from the younger mineralizing episode were emplacedadjacent to or superimposed on the older deposits.Field and laboratory studies show that the two metallogenic epochs are characterized by different base and precious metal suites: Early Jurassic gold-silver-zinc-lead-copper; and Middle Eocene silver-lead-zinc. Therefore, showings of different ages have different base and precious metal potentials and deserve different exploration emphasis. Lead isotope studies provide a reliable, cost-effective method for evaluating the age and commodity potential of small or recently discovered mineral showings and for setting exploration priorities on properties with several varied mineral occurrences. The determination of the age and metal potential of a prospect at an early stage of exploration may govern the urgency, intensity or even the necessity for further exploration work."

Jan 1, 1993

By D. G. Dixon

A novel technology for leaching copper from primary copper concentrates has been developed at UBC. This patented technology takes advantage of the galvanic couple between pyrite and chalcopyrite to ensure rapid and complete oxidation of chalcopyrite under mild conditions in acidic iron sulfate solution, without the need for microbes, ultrafine grinding, or chemical additives such as chloride, nitrate, or surfactants. Copper recoveries of 98% or greater can be achieved at 80°C under atmospheric conditions in as little as 4 hours of residence time. The process is selective for chalcopyrite over pyrite, generates near-quantitative levels of elemental sulfur, and is fully compatible with conventional solvent extraction and electrowinning of LME Grade A copper cathodes. In this paper, the fundamentals of the Galvanox ? process are reviewed, and selected results of batch leaching tests on various concentrate samples are presented and discussed.

Jan 1, 2007

By Michael T. G. Brown

Syncrude Canada Ltd. has recently completed construction of its ambitious tar-sand mining and processing facilities at Mildred Lake, Alberta. The Syncrude site is approximately 48 km (30 miles) north of Fort McMurray near the west shore of the Athabasca River. The Syncrude operation involves the open-pit mining of approximately 270,000 tonnes (300,000 tons) of tar sand daily using draglines and a conveyor system. Bitumen is extracted from the tar sand, upgraded to oil-gas and transported to refineries in Edmonton and other locations for final processing . The Beaver Creek Dam forms part of the mining facilities for the Syncrude tar-sand mining operation. Water from Beaver Creek is diverted from the open-pit mine site south to the Athabasca River via Ruth Lake and the Poplar Creek Dam. General site layout is shown on Figure I . Design of the dam was completed by R. M. Hardy and Associates Ltd. of Edmonton, Alberta (now Hardy Associates (1978) Ltd) . Construction was undertaken during the summers of 1974 and 1975 under the direction of Canadian Bechtel Limited, managing contractors for Syncrude Canada Ltd. Total length of the dam is approximately 2.8 km (1.7 miles), with a maximum height in the order of 16 m (50 ft) The Beaver Creek Dam is located in a broad, flat, poorly drained valley. About 50 per cent of the site is covered with treeless peat deposits, which ranged in thickness from in excess of 5 m (15 ft) at the east end of the dam to less than 1 m (3 ft) at the central portion. The peat deposits overlie Pleistocene meltwater sediments on top of clay/clay shales of the Clearwater Formation and the tar sands of the McMurray Formation. The peat deposits and high groundwater levels at the site combine to make the excavation and construction of a conventional rolled clay cutoff impractical. For these reasons, the slurry cutoff trench technique was utilized to produce an efficient and effective seepage cutoff under various sections of the Beaver Creek Dam .

Jan 1, 1979

By Jonathan Tsang, Ali Merati, Jonathan Beddoes

Due to economic factors, many aircraft in service today have been operating for more than 30 years even though they were initially designed with a service life of 20 years. Improved damage management models are therefore needed for use in life prediction and management of the aging fleets of aircraft. Currently, the generally accepted procedure in fatigue life prediction methodologies is to back calculate the equivalent initial flaw size (EIFS) using established long crack growth data. However, it was observed from studies carried out at the National Research Council Canada that nucleation and short crack growth constitute up to -95% of the fatigue life. As a result, it seems that the significance of the short crack regime has been underestimated and must be further investigated and fully understood before an accurate holistic life prediction methodology can be realized. Unlike long cracks, local microstructural features such as grain boundary, grain size, inter-particle spacing, and texture play dominant roles in the behavior of short cracks. An extensive study has been carried out to evaluate different crack detection and monitoring techniques in the short crack regime for AA2024-T3. The results will be presented in detail.

Jan 1, 2004

By L. Mercier, A. El-Hsaeri, L. Amaratunga

Laboratory scale studies of the development and application of high capacity heavy metal ion adsorbents with uniform nanoscale porosity (denoted MP-HMS, mercaptopropyl - hexagonal mesoporous structure) to extract gold from solutions is described. The adsorbents are selective towards gold ions. The adsorption capacities of these materials are also among the highest reported. MP-HMS has shown the capability to adsorb 330-mg gold per gram adsorbent (up to 30% of their weight). Gold uptake by the adsorbent was found to increase dramatically with solution agitation. The adsorbent was found to be extremely effective in adsorbing gold ions from ultra- low concentrations, like those found in mine effluents. Experimental studies indicated that MP-HMS maximum adsorption of gold (99.9%) occurred under all solution concentrations. Another promising attribute of these materials is their favorable adsorption kinetics. The contact time required for 80% adsorption of gold was found to be less than 60 seconds. The efficiency of these nanoporous materials for the recovery of gold from mining effluent is evaluated and their prospect for application in the mining industry discussed. The process thus has the prospect of becoming an efficient and environmental friendly method to recover gold from aqueous solutions, such as gold mill effluents.

Jan 1, 2004

By A. J. Basu

Air quality in underground mining operations can fluctuate significantly during the working day, but until recently the only way to ensure a mine had sufficient air quality was to over-ventilate and, with significant delay in adjusting the volume or direction of the airflow, working conditions were tolerable but rarely ideal. Underground ventilation management systems have been considered to achieve improved energy efficiency since at least 1995 in Canada. However, Mine Ventilation Optimization, (MVO) and integrating it with Ventilation on Demand (VOD) is only becoming more of a reality in the last seven (7) years. A systems approach to MVO takes into account all the elements from the point the power is distributed into the ventilation fans through to the actual quality and quantity of fresh air to the working face. Opportunities exist throughout the system for energy savings but not all of them are cost-effective. Depending on the application, these opportunities can be easily realized by properly sizing, streamlining, maintaining and operating the ventilation system using premium mine proven energy efficient components throughout. Implementation of VOD is a key step in achieving the MVO objective. However, VOD is a concept, and it requires various tools, procedures, and strategies for cost-effective and operationally viable implementations. This paper provides a historical background in the development of VOD and provides a framework for proper and cost effective implementation. In addition, an optimized ventilation system will also allow increased airflow by reducing resistances and shock losses. This turn in would allow production target improvement, which could be an attractive objective compared to energy savings. Mine ventilation is the life support system of an underground mine, and contributes to sustainable development and corporate social responsibility goals assuring health and safety aspects of strategic planning. The proposed framework addresses implementing mine ventilation optimization integrating ventilation on demand as a vehicle for energy, health and safety improvement and overall productivity gains in the mining cycle efficiency while significantly reducing carbon footprint of a mine.

Aug 1, 2013

By Roger J. Goodman

"Major industrial restructuring, which started to manifest itself in the mature economies of the Western World and Japan in the 1970s, will accelerate in the 1980s and 1990s. Conventional heavy manufacturing industries will continue to lose ground to lighter processing/assembly operations and the new wave of high technology, information and service sectors. The decline in heavy manufacturing has severely impacted on the steel industries of Western Europe, the U.S.A . and Japan.World trade in metallurgical coal has shifted correspondingly, with declining demand in the mature developed countries being only partially offset by large increases in the steel intensity of the newly-industrialized countries (NICs) of the Far East, Latin America and, to a more limited extent, the Middle East and Africa. These trends will be accentuated in future years with direct implications for the distribution of metallurgical coal trade. This paper discusses, in quantitative terms, such changes in the 1980s and 1990s, and examines the implications for, and impacts on, Canadian metallurgical coal exporters.IntroductionThe twenty-year period from the early 1950 s to the early 1970s was characterized by inexorable growth in consumer demand and industrial expansion in most of the advanced countries of the western world. Long- term forecasting during this period typically used linear extrapolation techniques which , despite their simplicity, invariably ended up predicting future demand and production level s with uncanny accuracy. Times have changed!The last decade has been characterized by a n abysmal failure of our economies to respond to simple long-term, linear growth patterns. We appear to have entered a new world in transition, where we can observe a wave of dying or sunset industries reluctantly being submerged by a wave of emerging or sunrise industries.This paper is aimed a t examining the evidence for long-term industrial restructuring trend s. For want of a better word, these so -called, megatrends are then used to predict future demand level s and spatial distribution of steel development and , hence, metallurgical coal trade. It is tempting to correlate the decline in economic activity in the western world with the first Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) crisis of 1973. This crisis was probably no more than the straw that broke the camel's back, as the megatrends and embryo s of major industrial restructuring were already evident. Today these megatrends are merely more apparent and transparent than they were ten years ago.While the concept of industrial restructuring is the new economic buzz word, the process was at work, to a lesser degree even throughout the period of strong economic growth of the post-Second World War boom. Many people still remain convinced that our present-day sluggish economy is just part o f the typical , though rather more prolonged, recessionary cycle. Yet, we have always been part of a dynamic economic system and industry throughout history has been the subject of a continuous process of evolution, restructuring and reconstitution . Now the time is ripe to examine the evidence for such restructuring in order to develop coherent policies of adjustment in this transition from one industrial regime to another."

Jan 1, 1985