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By Stewart Murray, Philip Klapwijk

INTRODUCTION Forecasting commodity markets is like predicting winners in a horse race: to get the answers right, one needs both luck and judgement. Commodity analysts bear some resemblance to racing tipsters as they try to convince interested parties that they have an inside track on which metal is going to win the great minerals race of the 1990s. Commodity analysts share some features with the gentlemen of the turf: • They influence other people in how to spend risk capital, • They don't put their own money at risk, and • If their tips consistently fail to deliver, then they end up looking elsewhere for employment. In order to find winners we need to know about the kind of race we are in and the strengths and weaknesses of all the runners. Miners are not interested in a five furlong sprint: their race is a long distance affair -- after all, the lead-times between discovery and start-up generally approach a decade for mines that will provide the staying power which leaders require in this industry. We need to look at the environment in which our commodities will be competing: in racing parlance, the going. Our equivalent is the economic background: just as some horses are at a relative advantage when the going is soft, so some commodities will do better than others if economic growth is sluggish. If we are going to pick the winners for the late 1990s, and as an industry, make the right investment decisions, nothing is more important than being able to forecast (with at least a semblance of accuracy) how and where the world's economy is going to develop in the next decade. In addressing the question of whether minerals are going to be leaders in the 1990s, this paper considers the idea that it will increasingly be the world outside the industrialised OECD that will provide the incremental growth in demand for mineral products. Economic growth in the Developing World is fundamentally different from that in the OECD, and the pattern of demand for materials in relation to economic output is much more favourable than in the OECD. If we are to forecast the future, we need to be able to understand the past, both in the boom times of the so called Golden Sixties and in the lean years that followed them. This should help us to decide whether the future is going to be like one or other of these extremes or, on the other hand, a return to normality. Having forecast the going, we can look at individual competitors. • Which are best placed to take advantage of the economic, social and industrial trends that we can now dimly foresee? • Which can resist the continued onslaught of the new materials and technologies? • Which of them will best weather the economic storms (assuming that recessions have not yet been abolished)? If we can provide answers to these questions, we will be well on our way to picking winners, i.e., the metals and minerals that will reward their owners with growing demand, steady (and high) prices leading to profits beyond the dreams of avarice.

Jan 1, 1990

By M. S. Azun

I do not at all agree with the basic points of the author's conclusion. The use of lognormal or normal model to respond to the attribute distribution function should be carefully questioned. If fitting a distribution function of regionalized variables is the main purpose, one may employ one of certain well-known families of distributions, such as Tukey's lambda functions. For instance, the distribution function of gold assay values studied by Krige (Krige, 1978) may fit the lognormal model well, but one should not exclude that the basic idea of using the distribution function of observed data is to have insight of the physical mechanism that gives rise to the regionalized variables. In Applied Geostatistics, there are many examples considering only lognormal or normal model for the distribution function of geostatistical data even if the observed distribution function has more than one mode. Of course, using lognormal or normal model always brings easy computation for the statistical properties of attribute under investigation. Still, I object to adopting any of those models without having any "statistical inference." As seen from the author's paper, lognormal and normal model produce the same average grade (0.746% copper) and almost the same sample variance. Therefore, which model explains the probabilistic behavior of ore deposit is always an important question that should be replied by the geostatistician using not the common sense but the statistical and probabilistic methods. For kriging procedures, such as linear kriging, one should describe either second order stationary properties or bivariate properties of regionalized variables. Second order properties, such as correlogram function or semivariogram function, are the inputs of the so-called kriging equations. Selecting one of any useable models for the observed second order properties, such as spherical model, is not easy since the models are not based on the correlations structure of the regionalized variables. How those models being used in Applied Geostatistics can be distinguished is another important problem. One may develop many fitting models to respond to the observed second order properties of regionalized variables. However, I suggest that the model should be based on the probabilistic behavior of geologic process. The author used spherical model for copper, wolfram, and silver grades from isotropic sector (Fig. 2, 4, 3b) and exponential model for silver grades obtained along raises in isotropic sector (Fig. 3a). It seems that those semivariograms given in Fig. 3b for isotropic sector and Fig. 4 may be described by the random model implying that regionalized variables do belong to renewal process (Azun, 1983). If I knew the total number of data points used in estimation, may prove that my conclusion is correct. Recalling the test for the first order sample correlogram value, the test procedure is introduced such that the independence is rejected if [Ir(1) I > Za/2 N1/2] where Za/2 is the a/2 percentile of standard normal random variable and N is the total number of samples used in estimation (Azun, 1983). For the other observed semivariogram functions I suggest the author might try to use the so-called "Markovian model" describing not only the correlation structure of regionalized variables, but also the physical mechanism that produces the regionalized variables. The Markovian model for correlogram function is, [p (h) = T 1ih , h>1 ,] The Markovian model for the other second order properties of ReV are also derived. [T veß], in the above equation, show, for example, structural change and mineralizational variation in a considered deposit, respectively (Azun, 1983). In selecting any model, it is not easy to search for the "best" response to the observed second order properties of ReV's. The Markovian model, based on a theoretical understanding of underlying mechanism, gives more information about the occurrence of regionalized variables and respond to all properties. Random model and the so-called hole effect structure can be easily defined as a special form of the Markovian model (Azun, 1983). An estimation of any second order properties of regionalized variables may be computed through (N-1) lag. However, the dependency between the regionalized variables may be deemed to have "died out" after the so-called stationarity width (range). In practice, the estimation is carried out through 25% of the total number samples available. Therefore, the large fluctuations around the zero level and variance for correlogram or covariogram function and semivariogram function, respectively, cannot be observed. Since the number of pairs involved in the estimation of higher second order properties is small, the estimation variance at those lags is large. There is no need to show higher order estimated second order properties. After using one of any kriging procedure for block estimation, the distribution function of average grades has the same mean as the drilling sample grades but

Jan 1, 1986

By R. C. Rastogi, F. F. Aplan

The goal of this study is to evaluate the coal flotation process and the interaction of the chemical (reagent) and hydrodynamic (machine, operational) variables as they affect yield, flotation of various sized particles, and sulfur and ash rejection. Coal flotation is found to follow a first order process with the coal floating much faster than either pyrite or ash. This circumstance may be used to achieve gangue rejection during flotation. When floated with MZBC, cresol, or pine oil frothers, coal floats in the size sequence: 108 pm ( - 65 mesh), 589 x 808 pm (88 x 65 mesh), and 1.17 mm x: 589 pm (14 x 18 mesh). However with a substantial amount of fuel oil collector, all particles tend to float roughly in proportion to their content in the feed. An increasing aeration rate was found to be the most important variable in increasing the coal flotation rate. This increase in flotation rate, unfortunately, is also accompanied by an increase in the flotation rate of the pyrite. The rejection of pyrite during coal flotation is best accomplished at low aeration rates, low frother concentrations, and low impeller speeds.

Jan 1, 1986

By M. S. Azun

M.S. Azun I have many objections to the content of the author's paper. Before discussing it, however, I would like to repeat the property of semivariogram function. Second order stationary properties of regionalized variables (ReV's) such as semivariogram function ?(h) are perfectly known in geostatistics. Also, the kriging equations in the language of mathematical statistics using second order stationary properties are well understood. However, the way to use the sample (estimated) semivariogram function in any one of the kriging procedures is vague. The sample semivariogram function is given as follows: [1 N-hy*(h) = 2(N h) i21 {Xi-Xi+h}Z, h=0, 1, N-1] where N is the total number of samples, Xi is the sample value at the i - th location, X i+h is the sample value at the i +h - th location, and h is the distance among the samples. An estimation variance of sample semivariogram function of first lag is smaller than that of higher order lag. The theoretical semivariogram function reaches the variance of samples asymptotically. But this is not easily observable because of the larger variation involved in the estimate of semivariogram function. In general, an estimation procedure is done for h = 0, 1, 2,…., up to the greatest integer less than N/2, even though sample semivariogram function can be computable through N-1. After estimating semivariogram function, the critical question of how to model sample semivariogram function arises. As seen in the above equation, sample semivariogram function is discrete and can be smoothed by the model being selected. Therefore, modeling of sample semivariogram function is the most important step in geostatistics. It not only smoothes a discrete function but also affects the results of the kriging procedure. When the only aim is to model the semivariogram function, which is the basic point of the author's paper, one can employ any fitting techniques, such as curve fitting, or any ar¬bitrary functions, which are called submodels in the paper. The term "arbitrary function" is used rather than "submodel" because there is no basic understanding of developing them. The author suggests that the sum of those submodels can also be used for the modeling of sample semivariogram function. The combination of any arbitrary functions brings many problems instead of giving an insight of the domain structure considered. The author used two arbitrary functions and the nugget effect in response to sample semivariogram function (Fig. 10). For the same example, he stated that the parameters involved in the mixed arbitrary function model can be accepted when the discrepancy between sample semivariogram function and the model is small visually. For verifying the fitting behavior of any selected model, one should not be contented with the visual satisfactory. Some statistical measure such as goodness of fit has to be used. The author's practice is no more than an exercise in curve fitting without any fundamental understanding or conceptualization of the underlying physical mechanism. Furthermore, the selection of any model is not an easy task if the purpose is the search for the "best" response to the observed second order properties of ReV's. I suggest that the Markovian model (Azun, 1983), on the basis of a theoretical understanding of underlying mechanism, which gives more information about the occurrence of regionalized variables, is used to respond all properties of ReV's. There are a lot of problems for modeling of onedimensional sample semivariogram function. Thus, it is not appropriate to go to higher order dimensional sample semivariogram function modeling. In the meantime, I would recommend that one can connect the values of standardized sample semivariogram function rather than simple values of semivariogram function in the two-dimensional estimation. The standardized values can be computed in dividing the semivariogram function value by the number of sample pairs involved in each lag regardless of the directions. In conclusion, geostatistics is an interdisciplinary area in mining that uses the principles of mathematical statistics. Thus, it should not violate any probabilistic and statistical rules. When Matheron was developing the theory of geostatistical study in the early years of geostatistics, many mining people had a reservation accepting the geostatistical tools. However, this does not mean that we, the geostatisticians, might try to convince those people using some "strange" tools or rules as some authors implied (Baafi and Kim, 1984). Instead, we have to develop and explain the geostatistical tools staying only in the framework of statistical concepts and properties. ? References Azun, M.S., 1983, "Stochastic Process Modeling of Spatially Distributed Geostatistical Data," Columbia University, Ph.D. Thesis. Baafi, E.Y., and Kim, Y.C., 1984, "Discussion - Comparison of Different Ore Reserve Estimation Methods Using Conditional Simulation," Mining Engineering, Vol. 36, No. 3, p. 280. Reply by J.M. Rendu The interactive method proposed by Rendu allows practitioners to develop semivariogram models that take into account not only the numerical information obtained by sampling, but also highly significant additional information that often cannot be quantified. The geology of the deposit - including hypotheses concerning its genesis, sampling methods, assaying methods, and mathematical methods used to calculate the semivariograms - all have an influence on the numerical results obtained and on how these results should be interpreted. If all the information concerning the spatial distribution of values in a mineral deposit was contained in the sample values, it could be argued that statistical techniques alone would produce optimum models. However, this is rarely, if ever, the case. Methods that allow the user to take into account his experience and his geologic understanding of the deposit should not be rejected for the sake of theoretical statistical purity. ?

Jan 1, 1986

By Richard D. Mills

Throughout the mining industry, many companies perform sophisticated business and financial analyses of proposed capital investments. However, once the project is approved, it is never reevaluated. At best, there is an attempt to control capital costs and minimize overruns. The post-installation appraisal, a formalized review of investment performance, may prove helpful. Typical Project Review A typical capital investment is approved after business and financial benefits have been reviewed with management.* The financial data shown to management often include a net income statement, cash flow analysis and summary economic data similar to those shown in Table 1 overleaf. These financials report the expected impact of the project on the corporation financial statements. This project is a rudimentary example of a capital investment decision. An actual project would undergo a more sophisticated analysis incorporating depletion benefits, deferred taxes and a detailed cost breakdown. The example project has several financial benefits that could result in management approval. For example, it provides an immediate net income benefit to the company, generates positive cash flows every year of the project life and has a discounted cash flow rate of return of 25 percent. However, it also has the disadvantage of a long payback period. A sensitivity analysis would show which areas of the analysis have the greatest impacts on profitability. Post-Installation Program Objectives The post-installation appraisal goes beyond the analysis shown in Table 1 by comparing actual results to those projected in the original economic analysis. The post-installation program has three primary objectives: 1. To provide a periodic performance review of major spending programs. 2. To review decision-making and evaluation procedures. 3. To provide a means of controlling individual project investments. The first major function of the post-installation program is the periodic review of actual performance of projects and investment programs, identifying those factors which proved critical to the health of investments. This review will serve to keep management abreast of progress, provide a comparison of actual performance against expectations, and provide valuable information that can be used for improving future economics. The second major function of the program is to perform a continuous review of the decision-making process. This includes testing of evaluation procedures, forecasting techniques, and logic used in making decisions. An information system should be set up whereby original evaluations and historical performance data gathered under the appraisal program are documented for use by evaluators and management when assessing past and future investment proposals. Such data should be particularly useful in evaluating new and developing types of operations and in activities where companies repeatedly reinvest. The primary purpose of this feedback system is to sharpen estimates to assure that they are realistic and attainable. The appraisal program also provides assurance that consistent evaluation procedures are being used throughout a company, leading to improved procedures

Jan 1, 1985

By Dean S. Rogers

The conventional role of exploration, development and grade control is examined in this paper within the context of the many and varied types of gold occurrences which are found at the Dome Mine. The account endeavours to trace the development of the total ore evaluation process, from diamond drilling through the exploration and drifting stage, to the stope development and planning phase of the operation, with an emphasis on sampling techniques and assaying procedure. The concept of ore reserve calculations is developed and the practice of grade control is described. In summary, the role of the geological, the engineering and the mining department is presented in relation to the contribution each has to make in the evaluation and exploitation of ore from one of the world's classic Archean gold deposits.

Jan 1, 1985

By Herbert D. Drechsler

Mining Finance is the interrelated aspects of "determining the total amount of funds to employ in a mining firm; allocating these funds efficiently to various assets; and, obtaining the best mix of financing in relation to the overall valuation of the firm." The first section is an overview of the financing problem through examination and discussion of the Balance Sheet and Income Statement. The next section is a discussion of the nature of the criteria developed in feasibility study. The third section describes type of capital funds, and the final section describes case studies of mining finance

Jan 1, 1985

By M. E. Gershon

Conventional methods of drill hole site selection are reviewed briefly. Two approaches using geostatistics are then discussed, both of which have been shown to yield improved results. Finally, a branch and bound algorithm is described which will select the best locations for drilling from a user specified number of possible drill sites. Two options are discussed. First, the user can specify a maximum drilling investment or a maximum number of drill holes and the program will select the locations yielding the minimum estimation variance. This amounts to getting the most for a given investment. Alternatively, a maximum tolerable estimation variance can be specified and the program will select the number and location of the drill holes to obtain the desired information at a minimum cost. Another benefit of the approach is the quantification of the tradeoffs between investment and information obtained.

Jan 1, 1985

By Fernando A. Buttazzoni, Jorge C. Munita

INTRODUCTION To provide a background for discussing long-range financial and operational planning in the mining industry, we would like to begin by describing the role of planning in Codelco. Having taken part in Codelco's planning process since its inception in 1976, we believe that useful conclusions may be drawn for the experience we shall relate. Although Codelco is a state-owned copper producer with an important role in the Chilean economy, and is consequently very much at the core of national economic planning, the following discussion is not related to government planning but to planning in an operationally and commercially autonomous business concern with all the characteristics of a private enterprise. The only way in which Codelco differs from private business is that its financial successes or failures have a more direct impact on the countryls ability to participate in international trade, to meet its international financial commitments and to achieve economic and social growth. Thus, what follows is a presentation of the conceptual features of the planning process at Codelco and a description of the current state of planning in the company. It is understood that certain conceptual components are basic to any formal strategic planning process, and that the components of Codelco's planning process are therefore generally applicable in similar companies. First, the mission and scope of operation of the company must be defined, and goals must be set to achieve leadership in the business activities in which it engages. Having set this framework, the company must constantly scrutinize those internal elements and conditions that are essential to fulfill its mission and achieve leadership. In Codelco this means considering the actions which can best serve to define future capacities, taking into account declining ore grades and determining optimal production levels; watching over the productivity and skills of its labor force, and; keeping abreast of technological developments in non-ferrous mining and processing. If the company is proficient in these three areas, it will be cost efficient and there- fore competitive. Codelco must also watch over the business environment in which it operates. The company sells concentrate, blister and fire-refined copper, wirebar, cathodes and wire rod and must study the behavior of the market to attune its product mix to the demand existing for these various commodities in the international market and the copper consuming industries in general. By examining the internal and external environment in which the company conducts its production and commercial operations, it is able to diagnose its strengths and weaknesses, to identify the hazards it must overcome to stay ahead in the copper trade, and to take full advantage of business opportunities as they arise. CHARACTERISTICS OF CODELCO-CHILE Although our subject is Codelco, readers should keep in mind that there are many other copper producing operations in Chile, all in the private sector, and many valuable deposits that may be exploited in the future. Codelco is the only public sector copper producer, although there is one other state enterprise that operates smelting and refining facilities principally to serve a large number of very small producers of copper concentrate. In the mid-19801s, Codelco is the largest copper mining company of the world and the largest producer and exporter of copper with yearly sales totalling close to US$ 1.8 billion in 1983. Moreover, it is a highly profitable copper company at a time when the world copper industry as a whole has reported losses for several years. Codelco-Chile is a fairly new organization. The history of the four mining operations it manages is much longer: El Teniente was opened in 1912, Chuquicamata in 1915, Salavador in 1959 -- with installations of the old Potrerillos mine dating from 1927 -- and Andina in 1970. Having had separate owners, the management systems of the

Jan 1, 1985

By D. M. Hausen

The amenability of a given vanadium ore to any given treatment depends largely on the mineralogic combinations of vanadium in the ore. Quantitative data on vanadium mineralogy provide not only an objective basis for selection of proper treatment, but also may eliminate many time-consuming amenability studies whose results are empirical, at best. Vanadium is distributed through the interstices of mineralized sandstone ores in the form of oxidized vanadates, reduced oxides, and silicates. Oxidized vanadates, e.g., carnotite, tyuyamunite, etc., are most readily beneficiated by simple acid leaching. Reduced oxides are more slowly solubilized, but relatively amenable to most acid treatments. The layered silicates, roscoelite, mixed layered mica-montmorillonite, and chlorite, are least amenable to most acid extractions, and constitute an assemblage of vanadium- bearing clays that are common to many sedimentary deposits. Vanadium is combined principally as layered silicates in the clay fractions of many sandstone ores. Mineralogic studies in this paper are largely confined to clay minerals, and to their amenability characteristics in low pH liquors.

Jan 1, 1985

Jan 1, 1985

By Peter J. Maxworthy

INTRODUCTION There is no hard and fast rule on whether functions within a company, diversified or otherwise, should be strongly centralized or decentralized. In all diverse organizations, there are certain basic functions which remain common (or central) to each element of the business, viz: Personnel Management Cash Management Taxation Management Legal Planning Accounting Standards It would follow that each of these common factors requires some supervision at a central level to ensure that overall group objectives are met. It is true that other functions including: Industrial Relations Marketing and Distribution Production Research and Development Purchasing Management Accounting may also be common to each element of the organization. However, there is far less commonality in the degree to which these functions are central to the efficient performance and financial well-being of the business. Role of Operating Units The resources of operating centers may be viewed as a bank of funds, the nature of which can be changed from time to time, but the employment of which must provide for ongoing increases in the net worth of the total enterprise expressed in terms of market values. Operating units are required to continually review products, methods, and opportunities and to monitor avenues for incremental investment--all with a view to attaining the necessary additive net present value of future cash flows of the enterprise. Operating units should be permitted sufficient autonomy to enable the best use to be made of the skills and experience of the people it employs in order to produce a return appropriate to the value of assets employed. Role of Head Office The head office will typically comprise a specialist group--the leaner the better if one strongly adopts the decentralist approach--often acting as Service Centers but also performing a control function in the corporate sense. The head office function is a cost center. It may be instrumental in developing strategies for increasing revenues or reducing costs on a group scale, but it does not generate revenue. Every dollar spent on this function is an extra dollar to be generated by the operating centers in order to achieve an increase in corporate wealth. TREASURY MANAGEMENT Treasury management is concerned with the provision of finance, cash-flow management, and risk analysis. Each decision taken within the enterprise has a cash implication. It follows that a well-integrated central Treasury function can, in all likelihood, produce economic benefits. The degree to which the function should be centralized depends largely upon the unique nature of the operating units it is servicing. Levels of ownership, the calibre of unit operating managers, and the nature and geographic distribution of the business are all factors determining the degree to which the Treasury function is centralized. In the case of Peko-Wallsend, the Treasury Department is small, comprising four people. While divisional cash-flow management is largely decentralized, Treasury is responsible for the daily management of funds surplus to the immediate needs of operating units. Treasury also operates as central banker and provides funds to

Jan 1, 1985

By A. M. Johnson

Dewatering is a major operational cost at some mines. Under certain conditions, costs associated with water disposal may continue beyond the productive bye of the mine. For mines with mineralized waters, this is of special concern. Since 1974 experience has been gained from examination of a number of closed underground metal mines that exhibited drainage problems. It was observed, in certain cases, that had appropriate steps been taken prior to closure, the resulting drainage problems could have been largely avoided. Reclosure steps would have involved alteration to the 'plumbing system" of the mines; i.e., the drifts and crosscuts interconnecting the mine workings. This could have best been accomplished by the placement of bulkheads and/or selective drifting. In addition to reconfirming that hindsight is 20-20, a lesson learned from these case studies shows that a relatively simple hydrologic evaluation prior to mine closure may avoid a troublesome and costly drainage problem.

Jan 1, 1985

By R. R. Unterberger

Three different physical techniques have been used to see through or probe into rocks, so miners might know what is ahead or overhead. These are radar, sonar, and a unique type of sonar called nonlinear sonar. Five radar systems have been developed. The highest frequency used is 4300 MHz for detecting small fractures at close range. This gives the best resolution. For longest range (over 2000 m, or 6560 ft) we use the 30 MHz radar for finding faults ahead of mining or ranging to salt dome flanks. Two types of salt, dome and bedded, are recognized. Radar works well in dry (dome) salt, but not in bedded salt which contains small amounts of water. The dipole moment of water absorbs energy from the radar. Thus was born the 30 MHz radar system and sonar probing systems. These can probe to 100 m (328 ft) even into wet salt. All probing systems measure data in time, which are converted to distance by measuring the time of travel of radar or sonar through salt pillars of known thickness. Ranges of probing in salt are from less than 1 m (3.3 ft) to more than 2000 m (6560 ft). Uses of radar and sonar probing in mines include mapping the top of salt above a mine; mapping salt dome flanks; finding impurities in salt such as anhydrite, sandstone, or potash stringers; locating old boreholes in salt pillars; locating fractures in salt; and finding faults or water zones ahead of mining.

Jan 1, 1985

Accurate modeling of the semivariogram is an extremely important step in the geostatistical analysis of mineral deposits. Automatic fitting of a mathematical model is often possible but not necessarily desirable. Significant geologic and statistical information must be taken into account in the fitting process, which is not always available to the computer. Manual model fitting is, on the other hand, extremely time consuming. Interactive graphics are best suited to optimize the process. Many interactive methods are described, which are adapted to modeling semivariogram in one-, two-, or three- dimensional environments.

Jan 1, 1985

By M. S. Klima, P. T. Luckie

An evaluation of the operating performance of a recently designed pneumatic centrifugal classifier is presented. This classifier has been modified from a separate air and feed input design to an entrained solids in air feed input. The evaluation first required determining the size distributions for the three streams (feed, fine, and coarse). Using size distribution data and mass flow rates, a size selectivity curve was calculated for each operating condition tested. This curve, in turn, was characterized by appropriate selectivity parameters (i.e., the equiprobable or cut size, the sharpness index, and the apparent bypass values). The variation of these parameters with classifier operating conditions was examined. From these evaluations, the "best" operating conditions for the classifier were then determined.

Jan 1, 1985

By Michael A. Gustafson, Fernando B. Sotelino

INTRODUCTION The degree of success of any new project will ultimately depend on two factors: (i) the underlying economic strength of the project; and (ii) how successfully the parties involved can coordinate their interests to establish a financing structure which indeed capitalizes on the project's inherent economic attractiveness. A project's underlying economic attractiveness is determined by its inherent comparative advantage in accessing the factors of production, combining these factors of production to create a product and marketing this product. Initially, the decision regarding whether to go ahead with the project - the go/no go decision - has to be based on its total ability to generate cash flow returns to project participants to compensate them for resources committed and risks undertaken. The extent to which project sponsors will actually benefit from the project's inherent economic attractiveness is fundamentally dependent on their ability to establish the long-term financing arrangement which best meets the objectives and constraints of each project participant and sources the most advantageous funding. The decision regarding the financing of the project, the "how-to-go" decision, is then an attempt to find the capital structure, consistent with market terms and conditions and sound financial management policies which will best: (i) match planned outflows with cash inflows; and (ii) maximize the return for project sponsors. This article makes use of a case study to illustrate the analytical process involved in dealing with the go/no go and the how-to-go decisions on a project. Though most commonly applied to project finance situations, the guideline described herein is equally applicable to other financing situations, such as leveraged buyouts and debt restructurings, where timely repayment of debt depends largely on the future cash flows to be generated by the entity being financed. Our case study is of a hypothetical expansion of an existing copper mining operation in Latin America. The company, Latin American Copper (LAC) currently has 147 million metric tons of proven sulphide ore reserves. The existing mine complex consists of an open pit mining operation and a conventional flotation plant with a processing capacity of 20,000 metric tons of ore per day. LAC sells copper concentrates primarily to Japanese custom smelters. The mine has been in operation for 5 years, fine copper production last year was 108,240 metric tons, and LAC currently has assets of $175 million and net worth of $135 million. Due to a recent increase in proven reserves, LAC is considering doubling the treatment capacity of its flotation plant to 40,000 tons per day, and expanding its mining capacity to meet the additional concentrator capacity (the "Project"). Project capital expenditures and incremental working capital have been estimated at approximately $210 million. The construction period is expected to cover one year, including a three-month start-up phase. The Project is to be funded by a combination of equity, senior debt, including both supplier credits and/or commercial bank term loans, and subordinated debt. LAC's shareholders are willing to commit a maximum of $50 million to the Project. A government development agency, which is also a minority shareholder, might be willing to lend approximately $40 million to LAC in the form of subordinated notes, depending on the ability of the Project to generate foreign exchange reserves. Commercial banks cannot be expected to offer loans with maturities longer than ten years. The Project is expected to increase the value of the firm because: (i) It will solidify the Company's position as a low-cost copper producer by taking advantage of economies of scale. As a result of the expansion, cash production costs are expected to decrease 7.0[c]/lb. and all-in costs 11.0[c]/lb; (ii) The potential earnings stream from the sulphide ore reserves will be realized

Jan 1, 1985

By R. W. Metsger

The metamorphic zinc-iron-manganese ore in the Grenvillian rocks of the Reading Prong m Sussex County, N.J. is unique. The singularity of its mineral composition and associations has fueled controversy among economic geologists and mineralogists for more than a hundred years. The silicate-oxide ore, in two synformal concentrations has been mined since about 1838. The Franklin mine was depleted in 1954, while the one at Sterling Hill is still producing. Although the two mines are perhaps best known for their almost three hundred mineral species and have been a mecca for collectors, they -- as importantly -- have provided a window through which to observe more than a billion years of geologic history. When pieced together, studies reveal a sequence of probable sedimentary deposition, intense folding, pseudo- viscous flow with attendant negative diapirism, uplifting, erosion, karstification, hydrothermal alteration, burial, faulting, igneous intrusion, uplift , saprolitization, and glaciation.

Jan 1, 1985

By Peter J. Szabo

INTRODUCTION The time period from the detailed feasibility study to the post investment audity usually ranges from three to eight years depending upon the nature of the mining project considered. It is the only after the post investment audit that we know the adequacy of the assumptions made concerning operational risk assessment in the detailed feasibility or acquisition economics. The post investment audit results from numerous mining projects can best be described by a verse by John Greenleaf Whittier's Maaud Muller. It reads "For all sad words of tongue or pen the saddest are these 'It might have been!"' Dissecting the negative results of numerous mining projects we find faulty assumptions concerning markets, geology, capital investment and operational risk assessment. Although in hindsight many of these assumptions could have been considered impossible or impracticle to have forecast with any degree of certainty, we find that refined assumptions concerning operational risk assessment could have been made with only a modicum of additional "Due Diligence". Anyone who invests in a mining property should employ a much higher discount rate of future cash flow, (usually in the minimum range of 25%-30%), than he would expect from such safe investments as Treasury Bills or high grade Utility Bonds. The nature of this steep discount translates to a large uncertainty concerning the timing and actualization of assumptions contained in the detailed feasibility study. We must remember that when a project gets beyond 20 years, any contribution to the value of the project of cash flow is minimal due to the nature of the discounting process. Thus for each full or partial day lost in the development or early operation stage of a project, the financial impact will be greater than similar lost days later on in the project. Adequate operational risk assissment is particularly critical when bidding on competitive tenders for coal deposists in remote locations such as the Bowen Basin in Queensland, Australia. Because of the market attractiveness of these coal deposits for supplying end users in the Far East, Middle East and Europe, state governments require competitive tender biddings via the Authority to Prospect process. Front end bonuses and super royalty payments must be commited before the actual mining conditions are known. Time to submit firm offers from the actual request for proposal vary from 90 to 120 days. Thus any operational risk assessment must be detailed, realistic and reflective of the actual project. When one searches the literature, one finds limited qualitative data on operational risk assessment in valuation papers. Usually this facet of valuation takes a secondary role to such areas as reserves, markets, and environmental considerations. When one comes to the question of operational risk assessment more often than not one finds the use of "rules-of-thumb", such as tons per man shift, average production, average seam height, etc., are used to forecast results on which banks and other financial institutions are required to make investment decisions. Because of the extremely competitive environment of the 1970's and 1980's numerous financial institutions approved loans without adequate "Due Diligence", and are currently paying a steep price in terms of non performing loans and charge offs. One must always remember that each operation is unique with its own characteristic

Jan 1, 1985

By Peter A. Allen

INTRODUCTION Lac Minerals Ltd., a significant North American producer of gold and other metals for over three decades, recently completed the financing for its third discovery in an eight year period. From 1975 to 1982, three important gold deposits in Quebec and Ontario: namely Bousquet, Doyon and Hemlo, were located and tested by company geologists. When current development plans are complete, Lac will have injected $400 million into these deposits. A discussion of these projects and their financing reveals some extraordinary challenges faced by top mining management. Responses to these challenges developed by Lac management may interest executives planning to proceed with new North American gold or base metal mines. MINE DE BOUSQUET In 1976, we explored a property containing a large low grade surface gold deposit. The geologial setting was exciting and we tested recent rethinking about the volcanigenic genesis of gold and base metal occurrences. These ideas helped pus to persist in drilling a nearby conductor and 600,000 ton, 0.22 ounce/ton orebody was outlined. With gold at $Cdn.150 per ounce the feasibility was approved and work started February 1978. Availability of a company custom mill 35 miles away reduced our immediate capital needs to $8.5 million. First of all, understanding the geological significance of results at Bousquet was critical. Mine and surface exploration geologists at Lac are continually and closely working together to better understand the nature of gold deposits in the Shield. This management emphasis on both pure and mine geology meant that a much larger ore reserve could confidently be predicted. (A proposal to quickly develop and ship the ore to a nearby company mine was discarded.) Instead of designing just for the initial plan of 500 tons per day we therefore included headframe, shaft and hoisting capacity for 1,700 tons and provided a compartment for future shaft deepening. These prebuilt additions were welcomed within two years. The type of collaboration whereby surface and mine geologists make study and field projects of each other's problems sets the foundation for this predictive ability. At Lac, the traditional responsibility for and supervision of the mine geologist by the mine manager is modified by this collaboration. This adds interest and scope to the geologist's work and lets him think beyond production requirements. Besides such management considerations, dedicated, professional geologists with integrity and lots of practical experience are needed to plan successful developments like Bousquet. Second, projecting future bullion revenue was critical and our experience selling production for future delivery gave us a way to ensure that loan repayment at term would not be jeopardized by falling metal prices. Output from a single mine is often reduced or curtailed for numerous reasons, so "selling forward" is done best and with least risk by companies like Lac with more than one or two producing locations for that metal. At first, a forward marketing program was considered unwise, speculative and unorthodox by analysts and other producers. Declining markets in the early 1980s prolonged gold project capital recoveries however, and critics were better able to appreciate the usefulness of such a tool. The notion that gold miners shouldn't sell forward is rooted in the belief that long-run gold prices will rise as modern social theory implementation in democracies inevitably erodes currency values. Selling against this trend goes against this industry belief or "ethic" and is at odds with the company shareholder who expects the gold price to rise not fall. Nonetheless, an efficient tool is available to the gold producer (not to most other metal producers) to quickly disengage from adverse price trends or to lock in spot prices instantaneously for two years or more of profits. Gold had recently retreated from U.S.$200 to $104 and now had reversed to $150. Lac had been forced to close several of its producers during the late 1960s because central bank-controlled

Jan 1, 1985