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By Y. J. Wang

The selection of a shaft size for ventilation purposes is a classic problem of concern to mining engineers. This presentation is concerned with the sizing of conventionally-sunk circular shafts with concrete or shotcrete linings. Costs of sinking shafts of three different depths (from 500 feet to 1000 feet) and six different diameters (from 14 feet to 24 feet) were obtained through questionnaires to shaft contractors. The primary objective of the economic model presented is the balancing of detailed annual capital and operating costs to achieve the minimum overall cost of the shaft installation over its life. The economic model is similar to previous analyses but treats several of the individual cost categories in an updated fashion. Included in the paper is a detailed analysis of the effects of varying power costs on optimal shaft size. Also included are a statistical analysis of current shaft costs and comments on the choice between shotcrete and concrete linings.

Jan 1, 1977

By R. Bhaskar

The advantages of recirculation of air in underground mines have been well recognized, and several papers have been written on the subject. Issues of concern to the various segments of the mining industry relate to the health and safety of workers, specifically, methane and respirable dust build-up in the air, high humidity and temperature at the work face. This paper presents a survey of various studies pertaining to recirculation as a prelude to the experimental and quantitative studies performed by the authors. Experiments were performed at a trona mine on the transportation and deposition of dust along the return airways, for three different velocities. Modeling studies were performed using dust deposition models. The model predicted data were compared with experimental data in order to lay the foundation for the development of advanced predictor models for recirculation in trona mines. Two models for dust deposition were analyzed. The model predicted data are in divergence from the experimental data, indicating the need to develop better models.

Jan 1, 1992

By K. S. Gritton

The U.S. Bureau of Mines has investigated methods for extracting metals from a variety of arsenic-containing smelter flue dusts. One proposed flowsheet includes a sulfuric acid leach, a cooling step to precipitate hydrated copper sulfate, and a reduction-precipitation of As2O3. Arsenic extractions greater than 90 pct were achieved, while copper extraction ranged from 50 to 85 pct under the conditions examined. Copper was removed from the leach solutions by crystallization followed by SO2 precipitation of arsenic which resulted in a 98 to 99.9 pct As2O3 product. Other metals, such as lead and zinc, were concentrated in the leach residue or in other byproduct streams for recovery of their valuable metal contents.

Jan 1, 1990

By Paul E. Rosten

This paper describes some of the latest improvements that have been incorporated or planned by the Cleveland-Cliffs Iron Company to reduce operating costs and improve pellet quality. The Cleveland-Cliffs Iron Company operates and manages mining, beneficiation, and pelletizing operations in Michigan, Canada, and Western Australia. This paper deals with the grate-kiln pelletizing operations at Republic, Humboldt, Tilden, Empire, and Pioneer in Michigan, and the Adams and Sherman in Ontario, Canada. Table I characterizes .each operation in regard to location, ore type, pellet capacity and date that pellets were first produced. All of the operations with the exception of Pioneer and Tilden, utilize downdraft-two-pass grate cycles of drying followed by preheating. Pioneer utilizes an all-downdraft, three-pass grate cycle which consists of three drying zones followed by the preheat zone. The Pioneer and Tilden cycles have been described previously. (1) (2)(3) Tilden utilizes a three-pass grate cycle with a stage of updraft drying, followed by two downdraft drying stages. Recuperation systems which supply hot gases to a drying zone from second stage cooling were designed and furnished for Tilden I. Tilden II will be identical. Empire IV will also be furnished with a recuperation system. The Adams grate-kiln system was retrofitted with a recuperation system. This paper will summarize some of the efforts that are in effect or planned for grate-kiln pelletizing systems to (1) reduce operating and maintenance costs, (2) reduce energy requirements, (3) improve product quality, and (4) meet environmental standards.

Jan 1, 1977

By Harrison H. Roberts

A. We are aware that many who are in the audience have perhaps heard before some of the material which will be presented. Since our firm is more closely associated with the heavy construction industry our experience is more oriented in that direction. Notwithstanding this, the subject your program committee has asked us to present centers mainly in the earth-moving field. We find a common denominator between say, the stripping of a site to uncover an ore-body which will be developed by open-pit methods, and that of excavating & transporting materials for an embankment dam, airport or other project. Both are earth-moving problems and we offer for your consideration a means of determining the most favorable method, equipment selection and resultant cost. We do considerable studies involving rock excavation for tunnels, underground powerhouses, inclined and vertical shafts for penstocks, muck-removal, electrical cable & other related underground work. Hence, we believe we speak the same language.

Jan 1, 1972

By S. Mathur

Oxide particles are commonly used as fillers in plastics, paper, rubber etc. (particulate composites). The successful fabrication of such composites is dependent upon the adhesive strength of the filler particles to the matrix. The compatibility of the matrix and the filler particles is generally enhanced by adsorption of surface modifiers such as surfactants and polymers at the particle-matrix interface. In order to develop a scientific basis for selection of appropriate modifiers it is necessary to understand their adsorption mechanism(s). Specifically, adsorption of polymeric additives is attributed to a combination of chemical and electrostatic interactions, hydrogen bonding and van der Waals forces. Hydrogen bonding has been suggested to be the primary adsorption mechanism for non-ionic polymers. However, a literature survey of Poly(ethylene oxide)(PEO)-oxide system suggested PEO, a non-ionic polymer, to be substrate specific. A systematic study was undertaken to investigate the adsorption mechanism(s) of a PEO on oxide particles. It was determined that strong Bronsted acid sites on the surface interact with the ether oxygen, a Lewis base, of PEO to induce adsorption. In this work characterization of PEO binding sites on oxides is reported and the mechanism(s) of PEO adsorption discussed.

Jan 1, 1997

By K. Huttu, A. van Wageningen

"The Kittila underground mine is extracting one of the largest known gold deposits in Europe and has an estimated mine life through 2034. The Kittila mine is located in the Lapland region of northern Finland, approximately 900 kilometres north of Helsinki and 150 kilometres north of the Arctic Circle. The ore at the Kittila mine is refractory, making gold extraction relatively difficult because the gold is generally locked inside the two main sulphide minerals – arsenopyrite and arsenic-rich pyrite. The orebody consists of a complex pinch-and-swell structure including up to 100 different gold mineralization lenses. Fluctuating gold prices and other economic considerations increase the need to maintain and update the mining plans more frequently. Over 3,000 stopes need to be designed and optimized once a year for the LOM-plan and more frequent updates are needed for mid- and short term plans as well as production studies. As a large part of ore body is very sensitive to cost and gold price changes, stope optimization is crucial to find the best possible production scenario for every moment. Kittilä has gone through several methods for stope design and optimization. Most recently the Deswik Stope Optimizer (Deswik.SO) has been successfully used. Dewsik.SO has helped Kittilä to design and optimize stopes in a timely and cost efficient manner. Together with the Deswik suite of planning tools, reliable and auditable plans are created. This paper describes the methods used for stope design and optimization at Kittilä. THE KITTILÄ MINE The Kittila underground mine in northern Finland is extracting one of the largest known gold deposits in Europe. Kittila achieved commercial production on May 1, 2009, becoming Agnico Eagle’s first mine to open outside of Canada. The Kittilä orebodies were initially mined from two open pits – Suuri and Roura – and underground operations were added in October 2010. The pits were mined out in November 2012, so mining is now entirely underground in the Suuri and Roura deposits. Additional, small open pits will mine any remaining near-surface reserves in the future. The Kittila mine is located in the Lapland region of northern Finland, approximately 900 kilometres north of Helsinki and 150 kilometres north of the Arctic Circle. With a mine life estimated through 2034, Kittila is Agnico’s longest-life mine. The mine’s proven and probable reserves contain 4.7 million ounces (32 million tonnes at 4.6 g/t gold). Ore has been mined from underground since 2010. The original 3,000-tonne-per-day operation underwent an expansion project to increase the throughput capacity of the mill by 1,000 tonnes/day, starting by the end of 2014. The region around the Kittila mine is underlain by mafic volcanic and sedimentary rocks of the Kittila Greenstone Belt oriented nearly vertical. This greenstone belt is similar to those hosting Agnico Eagle's Canadian deposits in Quebec’s Abitibi region and Nunavut. At the contact point between iron-rich and magnesium-rich rocks lies a 100- to 200-metre-thick structural zone known as the “Suurikuusikko Trend”. This trend hosts the Kittila deposit, where multiple mineralized zones have been traced over a strike length of more than 25 kilometres."

Jan 1, 2015

By G. A. Hufford

The cutoff grade applied to a disseminated orebody mined by open pit affects both the waste ratio, hence the cost of producing ore, and the ore grade, hence the quantity of metal recovered. As such it has a significant impact not only on the annual profit or loss, but also on the life of a mining property. Cutoff Grade Strategies Some commonly used objectives in calculating cutoff grades are as follows: Minimize Unit Cost of Product (1) This is found by adding all costs associated with each possible cutoff such as mining, processing, and marketing. This is divided by the quantity of marketable product obtained at each cutoff grade, then finding the minimum. Because the market value of the product does not enter the calculation it has no effect on this strategy: the same cutoff is selected in good times and bad.

Jan 1, 1986

By R. Bhaskar

The control of respirable dust in mines has been given paramount importance due to the health and safety implications associated with fine dust. The understanding of the temporal and spatial behavior of dust has been recognized as essential for increasing the efficiencies of the existing control techniques and for developing new control strategies. Mining-related studies in this area are, in general, limited. They are also mostly experimental. Some mathematical and computer analyses have been attempted. In this paper, first a review of the mathematical studies performed in the last three decades in this area is presented. Second, a mathematical model for analyzing dust flow in mines is proposed. The model takes into account a number of factors affecting dust transport. It incorporates varying dust generation source strengths and dispersion, deposition, and coagulation of dust in mine airways. Finally, application areas for the model are discussed. A computer program based on the mathematical model has been developed. The program will output the dust concentration in the mine atmosphere as a function of time and distance from the source. The amount of dust deposited on the sides, roof, and floor of the airway is also determined.

Jan 1, 1985

By G. Barbery

In Mineral Processing, the objective of most processes is the separation of mixtures of minerals, which are originally associated in composite particles. Feed preparation processes grinding for instance, which take place before beneficiation or separation processes do not usually break particles at the boundary between mineral phases. They produce composite ("middlings") as well as liberated particle. It is therefore necessary, in a particulate system, to determine the proportion of particles which are liberated as well as, ideally, the size distribution of minerals which remain associated in composite particles. Up to now, there has been a lack of experimental techniques to characterize completely composite particulate systems. Heavy liquid separation which is commonly used to obtain information of this type can only be applied to simple binary cases for which one mineral has a low density (lower than e.g 2.8 ). The technique which is proposed in this paper involves the measurement of parameters on polished sections of particles mounted in a matrix, and the use of mathematical transformations to reconstruct in three-dimensions the information obtained from these measurements .

Jan 1, 1977

By R. G. Reddy

Solid state reduction of roast movat chromite ore with carbon was carried out as a function of C/FeO ratio and temperature in the range 800°C to 900°C by thermogravimetry analysis (TGA). A two stage mechanism, (1) the reduction of FeO present in Roast Movat with carbon monoxide; and (2) the regeneration of CO by the oxidation of carbon with CO2 was proposed. The rate controlling step is the carbon oxidation reaction. A kinetic equation, that of random nucleation, was proposed. The activation energy for the reduction was determined to be 55800 J/mole and is compared to those activation energies determined for other chromite ores.

Jan 1, 1998

By M. E. Ryan, C. L. Hoebbel, E. J. Haas

DISCLAIMER The findings and conclusions in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Mention of any company or product does not imply endorsement does not constitute endorsement by NIOSH. ABSTRACT It has been suggested that effective disaster prevention and response in mining requires that elements of emergency management be incorporated into everyday operations, planning, and decision-making, much in the same way that the industry approaches routine risk management. Since Congress passed the MINER Act in 2006, the newly mandated structural and technological advancements in mine emergency response preparation have been made and are apparent, but measureable improvement in mineworker emergency preparedness is difficult to ascertain. To begin exploring whether measurable indicators of mine workforce preparedness can or should be addressed within a risk management framework, NIOSH researchers examined the datasets from two separate research efforts—one which measured the organizational safety climate and self-reported safety performance, and the other which measured individuals’ perceptions of their own self-escape competency. INTRODUCTION In response to the mine disasters in 2006, the United States Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act (MINER Act), which strengthened existing regulations [30 CFR, Part 48] and introduced new provisions to improve mine emergency response. Since that time, new technological and structural features, such as mandated redundant communication systems, personnel tracking systems, and lifelines in primary and secondary escapeways, have been installed in underground coal mines across the country. Additionally, mine operators are required to develop emergency response plans, provide adequate supplies of breathable air throughout the mine, provide more frequent and realistic expectations training, and are required to immediately notify the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) in the event of an accident. While the structural and technological advancements in emergency preparedness are readily observable and easily measured, levels of individual mineworker preparedness remain difficult to assess. There is a general consensus that deficiencies in competence in the non-routine tasks required for individual miners to effectively respond to a mine emergency likely remain (e.g., National Research Council [NRC], 2013), and NIOSH research continues address this concern (Haas, et al., 2015; Hoebbel et al., 2018). To maximize an operation’s capacity to effectively prevent disasters and/or respond to emergency events, it has been suggested that individual and emergency management efforts be incorporated into everyday operations, planning, and decision-making in much the same way organizations manage routine risks to health and safety (Haddow et al., 2017). To the authors’ knowledge, the mindful intersection of routine risk management policies and practices and emergency prevention and response readiness have yet to be empirically studied within the mining industry.

Jan 1, 2019

By Joyce A. Ober

Minerals for electronic and optical uses divide easily into two sections: 1) quartz and 2) minerals other than quartz. QUARTZ The properties of quartz crystal that make it useful for radio communications were discovered in 1918. Since that time, an in¬dustry for the mining and processing of natural quartz crystal has grown, matured, and been almost entirely replaced by new tech¬nology. The new technology still involves quartz crystal, but ma¬terial that is grown rather than mined. An economic summary of the commercial growing of quartz crystals has a place in a handbook directed to the mineral engi¬neering industry because quartz crystals have long been an impor¬tant commercial mineral, and the raw material for cultured quartz - ¬that is to say, quartz crystals grown through the ingenuity of man - is still natural quartz. Nearly all the natural crystals that have been used for elec¬tronics and optics came from Brazil. The larger pieces which met rigorous standards of quality were used for electronic and, to a lesser extent, optical components. Smaller pieces and fragments were used for vitreous silica. The need for high quality material in quantity led to US government sponsored research and exploration programs in the 1940s. No deposits meeting the very rigid requirements for electronic-grade quartz were found, but other projects resulted in the development of a process for the factory growth of beautiful crystals of prescribed shape, size, and quality. Domestic deposits of appropriate quality were identified to use as raw materials for the quartz culturing process. The development of the cultured quartz crystal illustrates the success that technology can have in adapting a product of the mine to increasingly sophisticated uses. A remarkable achievement per¬haps, but foreshadowed by experiments by Giorgio Spezia (1908), an Italian geologist studying the relative effects of temperature and alkaline environment on the solubility of quartz. Modem radio equipment is most often controlled as to fre¬quency by the presence in the circuit of a separately added crystal¬ - the 1918 discovery responsible for the existence and growth of the quartz industry. The crystal is quartz, but this component is a carefully oriented and prepared slice from a crystal, but not a crystal as recognized by a rock hound or seen in a museum. How quartz operates to control frequencies is not a proper subject for a handbook on industrial minerals, and references should be consulted (Cady, 1964, Mason, 1964). Quartz belongs to a class of materials called dielectrics: those that do not conduct an electric current but permit electric fields to exist and act across them. Quartz shows the piezoelectric effect, which means that when a quartz plate is mechanically deformed against its natural stiffness, one of its surfaces becomes negatively charged, the other positively charged. When the plate is released quickly from the stress, the charges disappear as the plate regains its original shape, but because of mechanical momentum the plate deforms in the opposite direction (to a lesser amount) and the surfaces correspondingly become charged in the opposite direction. By thinly coating the two surfaces with metal and attaching flexible wires, these charges can be brought into an electronic circuit. If the surfaces are suddenly electrically charged by movement of current through the wires, the converse piezoelectric effect occurs and the plate deforms. Carry the thought further and it is realized that an alternating current flowing through the wires responds to the mechanical oscillation. By controlling the thickness of the plate, its mechanical vibration frequency can be varied through a wide range. One type of quartz plate, the AT-cut, has a precisely defined orientation with respect to the crystallographic axes of the crystal and vibrates on a microscopic scale much as a book would deform when placed flat on a table and the top cover moved parallel back and forth with the hand. At least 17 other orientations have been studied, some of which have preferred uses in various applications (Cady, 1964). The quartz crystal industry is composed of three main segments (excluding fused quartz and quartz used for optical purposes): 1. Natural electronic-grade quartz crystals. Mined quartz suitable for fabrication into piezoelectric units. Zlobik (1981a) esti¬mated the waste to ore ratio at 1:1000 to 1000 000, depending upon the deposit. 2. Lasca. Mined quartz usable as feedstock in the production of cultured quartz. Approximately 0.63 kg of lasca are required to produce 0.45 kg of cultured quartz. 3. Cultured quartz. Cultured quartz is produced from lasca feed¬stock in a process of crystal growth in an autoclave under conditions of heat, pressure, and time. It is estimated that 0.45 kg of cultured quartz is equivalent to 1.4 to 4.5 kg of natural quartz crystal in yield of commercial quartz suitable for slicing into piezoelectric units. The chronology of the development of the quartz crystal industry both natural and cultured follows: Date Comment 1918 Discovery of the piezoelectric effects of quartz crystal 1921 Application of the piezoelectric effects of quartz crystal in the circuitry of radios 1948 Establishment of a quartz crystal commodity stockpile by the US Government 1952 US consumption of natural quartz crystal at an all time high of 228 t 1958 First commercial production of cultured quartz crystal 1970 Cultured quartz crystal production exceeds imports of nat¬ural quartz crystal 1971 Cultured quartz crystal consumption surpasses natural quartz crystal consumption

Jan 1, 1994

By G. J. Karabin

The Boundary Element Method of Numerical Modeling has become an increasingly popular rock mechanics -mine design tool. It has been used by the Roof Control Division, Pittsburgh Safety and Health Technology Center, MSHA, to aid in the resolution of complex ground control problems since 1985. This paper will present an overview of an evolving simulation process and details of methods utilized to generate necessary coal, rock and gob input properties. Also included is a description of a Deterioration Index System that is used to link model output to observed mine conditions and two case studies to illustrate that process.

Jan 1, 1995

By J. Alderman

In modern industry, cost and productivity concerns and environmental concerns are sometimes incompatible, but at other times only appear to be incompatible. Surface disposal of wastes from coal preparation plants appears to be an area of the production system with little opportunity for initiating measures which cut costs and concurrently benefit the environment. However, improving the recovery efficiency of fine coal circuitry can cost-effectively reduce the plant waste environmental burden by a substantial amount. Studies at Jim Walter Resources indicate that fine-coal waste measuring 50% ash contains over 50% recoverable, marketable coal. Modifications to the plant circuitry which reduce the amount of misplaced coal in the fine-coal waste stream could substantially reduce the volume of fine waste disposed aboveground. Studies at Jim Walter Resources indicated that episodic overloads of the vacuum filters in the fine-coal circuits at the preparation plants were a source of misplaced coal in the fine-waste stream of the cleaning plants. To improve the filtration rate and reduce overload episodes, conventional rotary blowers were replaced with high pressure air blasters on most of the filters. Subsequent testing indicated that measurable benefits can be derived from this modification.

Jan 1, 1990

By A. J. Sinclair

One hundred and eleven pyrite samples from 3 porphyry-type deposits in the Canadian cordillera were analyzed (many in duplicate) by AA spectrophotometry for Co, Ni, Cu, Pb, Zn and Mn. All elements have density distributions that are lognormal or combinations of lognormal populations. Co and Ni in pyrites show zonal patterns that relate generally to mineralogical zones in the porphyry systems, particularly if contoured as the Co/Ni ratio. High Cu values in pyrites also correlate with Cu-rich mineralogical zones. Other elements studied appear less regular in their distribution patterns, although Zn highs in pyrite seem to occur sporadically near the margins of porphyry systems. In particular cases, pyrite geochemistry shows potential as an exploration tool to aid in target definition for detailed exploration.

Jan 1, 1976

By S. G. Zahony

The Moris gold deposit resides in a massive ridge-forming sulfide-poor epithermal quartz and calcite vein system and consists of a mineable reserve of four million tons of 2.1gm Au/ton. Post-mineral normal faulting along the hanging wall of the main fissure has caused a hogback-like exposure of the vein, allowing for inexpensive opencut mining. The vein formed between pre-Cretaceous(?) phyllitic clastic sedimentary units in the footwall and Tertiary andesitic volcanic rocks in the hanging wall. Part of the ore reserve is hosted in a Tertiary conglomerate that rests unconformably atop the phyllitic footwall sequence. The original unoxidized vein material contained substantially less than 1 gram Au/ton. A four-fold upgrading of gold occurred by enrichment when gold recrystallization took place in the electric fields of oxidizing pyrite cubes.

Jan 1, 1993

By K. Hanumantha Rao, A. Javadi Nooshabadi

"Formation of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), an oxidizing agent stronger than oxygen, by chalcopyrite (CuFeS2), which is a copper iron sulfide mineral, during grinding, was investigated. It was observed that chalcopyrite generated H2O2 in pulp liquid during wet grinding and also in the solids when placed in water immediately after dry grinding. The generation of H2O2 during either wet or dry grinding was thought to be due to a reaction between chalcopyrite and water where the mineral surface is catalytically active in producing •OH free radicals by breaking down the water molecule. The effect of pH in the grinding medium or in the water in which solids are added immediately after dry grinding showed that the lower the pH value, the higher the H2O2 generation. When chalcopyrite and pyrite are mixed in different proportions, the formation of H2O2 was seen to increase with increasing pyrite fraction in the mixed composition. The results of H2O2 formation in pulp liquid of chalcopyrite and together with pyrite at different experimental conditions have been explained by Eh-pH diagrams of these minerals. This study highlights the necessity of revisiting the electrochemical and/or galvanic interaction mechanisms between the chalcopyrite and pyrite in terms of their flotation behavior.IntroductionHydrogen peroxide causes nonselective oxidation of sulfide minerals if present in pulp liquid. Oxidation of sulfide minerals takes place when they are exposed to atmosphere and during the grinding process when the particle size is reduced for flotation. The oxidation of chalcopyrite leads to iron dissolution from the particle surface and from a metal-deficient, sulfur-rich surface (Fairthorne et al., 1997). Other studies report the formation of iron hydroxide on the surface with the metal ion dislodged on the surface (Buckley and Woods, 1984; Chander, 1991). The chemical reactions for the oxidation of chalcopyrite in alkaline and in acidic solutions with the addition of oxidants, such as oxygen or hydrogen peroxide, are shown in Eqs. (1) and (2), respectively (Shi and Fornasiero, 2010)."

Jan 1, 2015

By D. J. Barratt

The application of autogenous and semi-autogenous grinding circuits in recent years has contributed toward substantial savings in capital and operating costs compared to conventional circuits, particularly for large scale copper and molybdenum operations. Such savings have been realized from the deletion of operating, maintenance, equipment purchase and substantial civil/structural costs associated with secondary-/tertiary crushing and screening, fine ore storage and conveying. In spite of the downturn in the copper- moly industry in North America, there is still an interest in autogenous and semi-autogenous grincting for copper-zinc, gold and silver ores and in the overseas market. Both single-stage and two-stage circuits are in operation. Primary circuits operate autogenously or semi-autogenously in either open or closed-circuit. Critical sizes are extracted and crushed for recycle in some cases (e.g. ABC circuit). Secondary grinding is conducted using ball mills or pebble mills.

Jan 1, 1985

By Paul A. Rittenhouse

First of all, I want to thank John Dunlap for asking me to this AIME meeting in Denver. I was first introduced to Denver and The Rocky Mountains more than ten years ago and immediately decided it was one of the most attractive spots in the world. I've come back many times since and still welcome any opportunity to return, even if it means I have to prepare and give a paper on potash. When John Dunlap gave me this assignment, he told me that the program would include papers on the geology of potash, papers on new discovered potash deposits and new mines and asked me to discuss potash from the commercial point of view. He also asked me to include a supply/demand outlook for potash. However, one thing he did not mention was "how far into the future he wanted me to look" and it seems to me the time element is a crucial factor to you who are both geologists and miners as well as to me. In your case, you have to look far enough into the future to give you time to explore, find, evaluate, develop, and bring into production a commercial deposit. My mining associates and friends don't agree on how long that takes but it's probably somewhere in the range of eight to fifteen years. But, they all agree on one thing and that is that the time required is continually getting longer. Now my time problem is just the opposite. It is "relatively" easy, and I stress relatively, to identify and evaluate the importance of the various factors that impact on both the supply of and demand for a commodity such as potash if the time period is today. It gets a little tough if one has to project into tomorrow or next week or next month. And when we start talking in terms of a year, five years or ten or fifteen years, things really get sticky and the old crystal ball becomes mighty cloudy. But we economists and forecasters are not known for our temerity so let me get on with the job at hand and take a look at the world potash supply/demand outlook.

Jan 1, 1978